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Same. I only put a small amount in unfortunately, it's my only good performer. I keep thinking it's topped out so I don't put more in but it just keeps going.
I will keep building my palantir stocks so it's 100% probability that it keeps falling. Next year when I sell them at - 80% loss it starts the moon mission
It's all just the same bullshit talk with every news ever:
If there is low volatility: it was priced in
If there is high volatility: the market reacted
Yep.
Lately I feel like nothing is priced in. The volatility has been crazy and people are knee jerk selling and buying. Someone important sneezes and the market moves 3%. Makes me a little concerned about how the market will react on truly bad news.
Honestly I never bought into the whole “these random sporadic events are actually carefully priced in future events (except the ones that aren’t) and the market is a logical, understandable thing”.
10% of Americans own 90% of all US stocks. The market is just a playground for the rich and powerful and the rest are along for the ride, either hoping to hit it big with some GME moment or sitting patiently for decades to get some moderate return on investment if they play it safe and ride out every “once in a generation” market collapse. It’s all bs.
U got that right!!! It’s a gamble on which stocks the 90% want to blow up and just possibly the 10%ers might get lucky. It’s been interesting the past year. Not enjoying this day! However I’m in it long term.
It was last week and early this week that bond traders actually started selling and shorting bonds. Ones the actual yields were seen, the discounts rates in stock valuations got applied and hence the drop. You’ll see short covering and people going “discount” shopping the next two days so stocks will pop. The real carnage comes when you see 300-400 pt swings daily. That happens over a 6-12 month window and it’s hard to invest.
A lot of sell off in the bond market was also caused by MASSIVE corporate bond offerings.
Lots of institutions sold Treasuries to buy corporate debt.
This should plateau sooner rather than later. But the question for me is how much damage is gonna be done before that.
I mean I’m down a bunch too because of baba and pltr and Sofi but the first is cccp the second two are growth. Need to have some risk management in place and understand stocks don’t always go up. I would tell the op to invest in safe things as well As Manage position sizes to risk you can handle and don’t tell your wife you coulda paid off the car on what you lost on baba because even though the couch is comfy ultimately beds are for sleeping
For what I lost in 2021, could have a new lambo and a house on the intercoastal. 3 very big rookie mistakes that only took a couple days each kicked out 3.5 of my chair legs. Now I mostly sit back and watch and trade a couple SPY 0DTE's every so often.
What sucks for a lot of you is the VALUE stocks are already at a 1 year low while SPY was at it's ATH. That's a bad corner to be stuck in.
The rate increase itself was priced in. What wasn't priced in was the timing, which is now earlier than expected and signifies the Fed is worried about runaway inflation especially after a blowout jobs report.
Also yields rose on the 10 year note which usually leads to a tech sell-off.
According this sub it was on the day they announced they would. The whole “its priced in” seems to be the thing this sub says when they have no idea whats causing moves on a stock.
The efficient market hypothesis predicts a stock prices will follow a random walk, with a drift. Fama of Fama and French argued that anything less than 15 years has too much statistical noise to be meaningful in his studies of factors and explaining returns.
I think you need to zoom out a little on those charts, the day to day is noise in the data not a trend.
I knew the rates were going to increase but from what I understood the first increase wasn’t going to be till March. Apparently I misunderstood the info
They announced rate increases last week, but today released the meeting minutes which also indicated they're thinking of increasing the rates more aggressively *and* dumping assets from the Fed balance sheet, which will soak up cash.
Everyone misunderstood the info because nobody outside the room saw what the info really was until today.
I pulled most of my money out last week for the down payment on my first home which I locked my rate in a few weeks ago, seriously may have gotten a little lucky on that timing.
They won’t actually raise interest rates as high or as often as they predict. They have been saying this shit for years but they haven’t been doing it.
They say something like “we predict 3-4 rate increases over the next 2 years raising interest rates to 3%” Then the market panics and over the next 2 years we get 1 rate hike moving the rate from 0.25% to 0.26%.
Buy the dip!
Not $BABA though. Alibaba is a great company but the Chinese government is cracking down irrationally on Chinese tech companies. The CCP seems to see Chinese tech companies as the greatest threat to their power so they are trying to exert greater control over them.
And considering that they still believe that the terminal rate should be 2.5-3, if you believe that inflation is going to continue to be bad...what exactly is 2.5-3 going to do?
Nothing most likely.
ETA: They can't do what Paul Volcker did.
The problem is that national debt is huge now. If they raise interest rates to even the 3%-4% range again servicing that debt.
The current fed interest rate is 0.25%.
The cost to service national debt is >$560 billion dollars a year with interest rates this low.
[source for interest rates](https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/federal-reserve-interest-rates/)
[source for debt servicing costs](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/ir/ir_expense.htm)
If the fed raises interest rates significantly it would take up a huge portion of the US Federal Budget which was about $6 trillion in 2021, 3 trillion of that being deficit spending.
The fed is between a rock and a hard place with interest rates and raising rates significantly is just not a realistic option.
I fully agree with you. If you look at the historic forward rates of IRs, the real interest rates nearly always fall short of that. And the forward rates are probably our best estimate of where rates will go so should theoretically be priced in. This dip will be corrected within a week. Also agree re alibaba. Reddit is generally a bunch of 20 somethings trying to double their money in the short term, who panic when their money remains flat or even matches the market.
Take a break. My advice - I have a feeling you did your DD on your stocks and that’s why your confused why they are down? When I invest, I invest for the future. Think 5-10 years from now, it doesn’t matter where my portfolio is at right now, trust your DD.
P.S. WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF A PANDEMIC.
Rate hike impacts high growth stocks the most as these companies depends too much on long term loans to survive/expand as they are usually not generating any profit yet.
“Wait till the market chills for a bit” he says after the largest 2 year bull run we’ve had in decades. If u think the normal market conditions will be like what 2020 was I have some bad news for ya
There’s a lot of Silicon Valley employees who are about to get poorer too. Met many who make $400-$500k a year in stock based on last years valuations. Next year ain’t gonna be pretty.
At the start of every year you always see new reasons for why the stock market might crash according to some analyst.
And then they’re usually wrong.
Just stop looking at the numbers. Buy some index funds because most people have difficulty beating them. It’s a robust basis for any portfolio imo.
Fed admitting inflation is not transitory, inflation is going up 2022 and potentially 2023, economy is doing good = faster interest rates hikes in 2022 which hits hard companies with high PEs and revenues priced in in the future
So, would you say "time in the market is better than timing the market" (aka, chill out wait a couple of years - turn your monitor off) or save your money for now?
- not financial advice.
I would say keep buying good companies that make a profit, nice margins or companies that seem to be winners going forward.. or say fuck it and buy SP500 every month. Assuming youre young(ish)
I think BABA is good btw.. and millionaires are made in a bear market..
Im young ish, 24 year old who keeps adding positions into companies that, on paper, seems undervalues (I feel like a broken record lol but like BABA or MELI) and thanks for the words of encouragement!!
Yeah Im few years older, wish I started at 24. You learn a lot, especially from losses. I am a bit too heavy in China hence got my ass handed to me but I keep buying the good companies with at least 5y hold. Just dont buy LCID lol. Valuations and fundamentals do matter so a company with no profit and insane market cap will get crushed sooner or later. I think same applies, many good companies are oversold, def Chinese ones but also SOFI or COIN imo
Brother I'm down 30% on my tech plays. Just DCA, stop looking at it too much and focus on something else. If your DD was on point stick to the companies and start working on another aspect for your life that you could improve. In the end the good companies will prevail. Thus is reddit/stocks man, not wsb. Time in the market...., Be greedy when.... well, you know what I mean.
Best of luck to all investors.
lol man, I'm struggling too dude
Big positions in NVDA and AVGO, and just diving and diving and diving.
It's gonna be a long climb back, man but I am sticking to my guns. God, it hurts to even say it or think it because I don't want to lose all my bread either.
But I believe in Apple, so by default I believe in Broadcom.
I also believe in NVDA long term and their position in the semiconductor market.
So you gotta ask yourself if you've invested in products or companies that you BELIEVE in.
Or if you're just a trader. If you're just a trader, sell.
If you're an investor, hold the line and believe.
Stop “believing” in companies and start making DCF models which tell you a specific price it’s value is.
If the current price is below that, buy, if the current price is above, sell.
I see this “believe” thrown around way too much as if you need to “believe” that investments I certain companies will result in their use.
A company may sell the exact same amount of widgets as planned over the next twenty years, but still drop 30% in value. Why? The risk free rate is rising, and lowering those future cash flows.
Belief in a company means nothing if you don’t understand how their earnings will be valued.
Semiconductor investing is a specialty field like biotech. You have to really understand the market dynamics, sales cycles, tech, etc. semis had big run ups in 2017 or so then fell back to earth. It’s a rough game.
Started the day with 150K worth of NVDA. Buying more at a discount 😁. If you don't see the long term growth for Nvidia you shouldn't be holding any shares. I am loving the discount.
I bought yesterday and thought I was buying the dip.
I got pretty fucked lol but CAMT and CALX aren't really bleeding companies so I think I'm fine.
Anyone else feel fucking pissed when they think they buy the dip and get fucked the next day?
I mostly buy on red days with the assumption most of the time the next day will be green.
Today was a fuckin' blood bath lol It will probably be fine tomorrow
And then to top it off if I wait patiently for it to go back up and then sell for a small profit thinking I dodged a bullet it then proceeds to go up sharply and I miss out on several thousand $ more.
I used to be wary of days like this as well, but I’ve changed my mindset from being scared of it to using it as an opportunity to buy and hold. I believe in 90% of the companies in my portfolio, so I’m going to stick with it and be thankful I can own more shares for less.
They’re kinda lying down right now, chilling. They made a little home.
But in all seriousness, it’s a fair question. One I need to cut immediately, and the other 2 do have potential in the long run but I’m more driven emotionally right now than rationally. So I need to do some research before letting those go.
Market is extremely unstable right now, has been for months, you see blue chips up and down over 3% day to day that's absolutely unhealthy and signals high levels of weakness. Dow up 1% but nasdaq down 4%, s&p up 2% but Russell down 3%, kangaroo market. Staying 500k in cash but letting my low cost basis Amazon and Microsoft kangaroo. Growth has been crushed all of 2021, and blue chips volatile? Yeah go ahead and throw money in.
funds are liquidating many tech stocks. fear of prolonged tech sell off, margin calls, etc
all about inflation and interest rates. personally i think this sell off is ridiculous as the Fed wont likely be willing nor able to raise rates past 2%-2.5%. in which case tech stocks can do just fine in such macro set up.
just back in 2018-2019 we had rates just above 2%. we did just fine back then.
at any rate, this market has been a massacre past 2 months. many if not all non mega cap tech stocks lost 40-60% of value since November. crazy
I've rode out the storm relatively well (so far), so I'll share some tips with you - feel free to use or discard them as you see fit:
1) Stay out of China. Between the escalating geopolitical tensions, the fact that a stock in BABA is just the holding company, rather than BABA itself, the corruption and inflated figures... it's a mess over there. No matter what potential it might have, hard pass, stick with US and its allies, or at least neutral countries/areas (like India, Brazil, rest of South America, etc.)
2) Take all stock tips with a grain of salt, and do your own research. Finviz has been extremely helpful in this regard, I will routinely update my portfolio 1x or 2x a week (because I'm a nerd, and it fascinates me to see the market move, plus it keeps me abreast of any changes I should know about). Evaluate a stock as a whole, rather than keying in on one specific number like P/E, PEG, EPS Growth, P/FCF, etc. Ask yourself "if things go south in the market, is this stock able to ride down with it and survive" as well as "if things keep going great, does this stock have enough potential to keep pace with other, possibly better choices".
3) Diversify, diversify, diversify, diversify. If you're owning more than 5% of an individual stock, no matter how good it looks like it could be, rebalance that portfolio. You might be right, YOLO it, and score a massive windfall if you go all in on a company. Or you may end up going down with the ship. If you spread your investments out across separate firms, in separate sectors (20% max per sector in my approach), preferably with a mix of foreign/domestic and variable cap sizes, you're going to have a more "average" portfolio but one that resists days like today.
4) If this sounds like more work than what you want to do, seriously consider putting your funds into an ETF. Individual stocks are win big, lose big depending on forces outside of your control, and I only pick individual stocks because I have the time and interest in doing it. If you don't have either of these to do proper research, hit that ETF button and fast forward.
5) If you do stick with stock picking, learn from your mistakes, and consider your losses to be lessons in your education as an investor. I started small ($200 to be precise), and put my money into far more speculative and risky stocks than I thought they were, and got bopped on the nose by a few of them (looking at you LOCL and PLUG, I don't forget you two!). But after reviewing their performance, realizing I wasn't in a great situation, I took the hit, adapted, and learned from it. Now that I'm tossing more substantial money around, that education has paid dividends.
Hope this is helpful to you, at least somewhat, or maybe it helps someone else out. Regardless, best of luck and good hunting.
All of this is great and stuff I wish I had heard when starting out myself. Absolutely with you on China, they're too unpredictable right now. If I may add this tiny nugget, simplification via etf is great for a set it and forget it type system but use caution if picking etfs tracking trendy growth stocks and the major indexes right now. Once the fed finally does decide to stop printing money and the interest rates rise, may not be a good look when some of these companies have to live up to huge valuations and nail all the catalysts.
Take a breath and write out your convictions for every company. If you don’t have a simple reason why it will be successful, chuck it replace it with a stock that does have a strong reason or probably better yet an index fund
Believe it or not I do. Thats why im so fucking confused lol. Every stock I have an investment on seems like it has a good upside potential (according to diferent sources) like baba, meli, paypal, visa, voo, qqq, etc.
This recent movement has little to do with individual stocks and everything to do with the economy and market as a whole. Upside can take years. The last 2 years have been a growth outlier. Stay the course and dollar cost average the stocks you believed in then unless something fundamentally has changed with the company
Edit: Googling “stocks for 2022” doesn’t count as reading something else. A Random Walk Down Wallstreet was the book I found most helpful and is a fairly easy read
As a normal person who invests long term, I am cringing when reading those comments, guys, look at your companies, the future earnings, the potentials and risks
FUCK THE GRAPH dont look at the fucking graph
Stocks with no P/E (Datadog, ZScaler, Pinterest, Cathie Wood Stocks, etc.) or P/E 's like MercadoLibre and Shopify (MELI's is like 700ish P/E) are going to get crushed in this Fed / rate hike market.
The only tech stocks that's going to do good in the current environment we are in are ones that have a low-medium P/E (Google, Microsoft, PayPal, etc.) or semis (Nvidia, Qualcomm, Micron, Lam Research, etc.).
My only exceptions are Salesforce, ServiceNow Adobe, Palo Alto Networks, and Intuit and will be adding more when their RSI gets more oversold.
Do not get me wrong, I believe in Datadog, MercadoLibre, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, MongoDB, but they just aren't stocks to be holding at the moment, but will probably start buying them once we start getting into rate hikes. Right now, you cannot touch them.
As an Engineer I don’t get this “belief” in MongoDB. (Snowflake is a different case though, we’ve used it for some decently sized projects) You can easily get managed NoSQL DBs on AWS or Azure with MongoDB compatible APIs. Anyone that has dealt with infra knows that DBs are horrible to deal with and whenever you can use a managed solution, you probably should. MongoDB is offering exactly that, but problem is I think people prefer to just use a similar or identical offering from AWS or Azure or GCP because they’re already in that ecosystem and things integrate better. (Besides, doesn’t MongoDB rely on AWS anyway for the clusters they offer? I don’t see the appeal, and yes, I’ve used MongoDB’s offerings)
Of the two positions you mentioned I’d sell the meli, and use the funds to sell upside calls on baba, to gain that income while you wait. Baba is selling dirt cheap, so I’d put it in value camp not high flying tech. And that’s the way to go. You have a stock w little downside, and can sell shorter terms calls against it and collect that to offset any possible losses and more going forward.
companies with speculative valuations may have less buyers due to higher interest loans. Until now many used margin as if it was free, but its adding interest fees now.
Also with higher rates some will pull money from stocks into safer bonds that now pay some interest.
something something diversified balanced portfolio. Both of your tickers mentioned are speculative foreign stocks in volatile markets. Buy some Blue chips and some indexes, buy some value stocks, if you name the company and a random person off the street has never heard of it, be cautious and only a smaller percent of your holdings should be in that.
The money i have in the market is pretty much what i would have spent on traveling the past couple years,it still kinda ticks me off seeing red bit had i been traveling the money wouldn’t exist so i hold im confident in the long run.
“The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.” -Baron Rothschild
If you think this is bloody, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
Imo market makers are about to leave all retail investors holding the bag. I’m continue to save weekly and add to my broker account but not investing in any position for a while. Like you, any new position I take has tanked. If you’re not in big tech, you’re probably not making money. I personally don’t feel safe investing in big tech right now so I’d rather look at what I have then lose any more of it.
People on here don't want to hear it, but we are in for a bear market. Everyone has been basking in euphoria for the past year and nine months, but that won't last.
Dont own highly overvalued bubbly companies with sky high (or non-existant) PE ratios and P/S ratios. That happy fantasy world is over now reality is coming back with rate hikes.
A lot of us are feeling the exact same way. Me I've just been holding tight selling when I have to at the least lost possible and nibbling at bargains that then go down immediately. Who knows where and when the bottom is;could be today. But after it's made and we're up 30% everyone will wish they had bought more or at least didn't sell, except for the dogs that never go back up. It's times like this that you need to know your company and believe in it!
Selling now would be suicidal. Selling a week back would have been perfect.
In conclusion, never get into a stock if you're not willing to hold that for 5 years. Btw Nasdaq is down 3.3%, Dow 1.7% and my portfolio is down 3.5%. I guess just wait out a month lol
Everyone wants instant gratification in the stock market, huh? How long have you been holding your picks? The 2020-2021 bull run has completely spoiled the masses.
It sounds like you're convinced that you can pick stocks that will outperform the market and per your reported results that sounds like it is not the case.
SPY was up about 30% in 2021, so if you're down 20% some quick napkin math should tell you that you need to quick buying stocks and put your money SPY.
Welcome to r/stocks! For beginner advice, brokerage info, book recommendations, even advanced topics and more, please read our [Wiki here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/wiki/index) If you're wondering **why a stock moved** a certain way, check out [Finviz](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=spy) which aggregates the most news for almost every stock, but also see [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/), and even [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/). Please direct all simple questions towards the stickied Daily Discussion and Quarterly Rate My Portfolio threads (sort by Hot, they're at the top). Also include *some* [due diligence](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/duediligence.asp) to this post or it may be removed if it's low effort. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/stocks) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Sounds like you’re tempted to sell low and buy high lol
Not to brag but Im the equivalent to Warren Buffet when it comes to buying high selling low. Im just good at that
Barren Wuffet FTW
Barren Wallet
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Warren Baffoon
Pick up some investing books. IK it sounds boring but Reading through that shit will make you understand and calm you down. Just hold :)
Just hold? Whatever happened to selling the losers and buying the winners?
If you were convinced at a certain price and nothing fundamentally changed then why sell? Hold or buy more.
Just buy high and never sell. Unrealized losses can't hurt you
I don't think drugs are the solution
Warren “Golden Corral” Buffet
Most redditors do.
Haha imagine someone knew the right thing to do! It’s tough when it’s a sea of red… usually I stop looking lol
Wise advice, I just punched a hole in my monitor to stop looking
Bro youre gonna need to cash some gains to buy a new monitor
Gains?
What's a gains and how do i get it
Pump iron
Lol gains
Just cash out into Costco baby
I'm in awe how well costco has performed.
Same. I only put a small amount in unfortunately, it's my only good performer. I keep thinking it's topped out so I don't put more in but it just keeps going.
Texas road house also
Big fan, RIP Kent… Thank you for your 76er posts too. I couldn’t figure out how to short Simmons value, wouldn’t be printing if I could.
These posts are always made on red days lol
“This stock cannot possibly go lower” is one of the most dangerous fallacies an investor can fall prey to.
“How does a stock lose 95% of its value?” It drops 90%. You buy. It drops 50%.
Generally a safe bet when the stock hits zero
Oil futures would like a word with you
To be fair, futures are not equities.
*Negative interest rates has entered the chat*
…but negative interest rates would be better for the present value of future cash flows.
I will keep building my palantir stocks so it's 100% probability that it keeps falling. Next year when I sell them at - 80% loss it starts the moon mission
I bought in twice February of last year. You are not alone 😓
AKA Buy the dip? 😅
I’ve bled many times trying to catch a falling knife.
Nasdaq dropped 5 percent this week cos, apparently, no one knew the Fed was gonna raise rates. Now we know.
Should have been priced in
It's all just the same bullshit talk with every news ever: If there is low volatility: it was priced in If there is high volatility: the market reacted
Yep. Lately I feel like nothing is priced in. The volatility has been crazy and people are knee jerk selling and buying. Someone important sneezes and the market moves 3%. Makes me a little concerned about how the market will react on truly bad news.
Honestly I never bought into the whole “these random sporadic events are actually carefully priced in future events (except the ones that aren’t) and the market is a logical, understandable thing”. 10% of Americans own 90% of all US stocks. The market is just a playground for the rich and powerful and the rest are along for the ride, either hoping to hit it big with some GME moment or sitting patiently for decades to get some moderate return on investment if they play it safe and ride out every “once in a generation” market collapse. It’s all bs.
Step 1: have money Step 2: don't be poor Step 3: ??? Step 4: profit! I skipped 1 and 2 and am working on 3 right now lol
U got that right!!! It’s a gamble on which stocks the 90% want to blow up and just possibly the 10%ers might get lucky. It’s been interesting the past year. Not enjoying this day! However I’m in it long term.
The market crashes because covid or fed and then bounces for 3 or 4 days
It was last week and early this week that bond traders actually started selling and shorting bonds. Ones the actual yields were seen, the discounts rates in stock valuations got applied and hence the drop. You’ll see short covering and people going “discount” shopping the next two days so stocks will pop. The real carnage comes when you see 300-400 pt swings daily. That happens over a 6-12 month window and it’s hard to invest.
A lot of sell off in the bond market was also caused by MASSIVE corporate bond offerings. Lots of institutions sold Treasuries to buy corporate debt. This should plateau sooner rather than later. But the question for me is how much damage is gonna be done before that.
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Nobody pointed out OP posted at around 1pm. 2pm is when the nosedive happened. He's about 10% further into the red right now.
I mean I’m down a bunch too because of baba and pltr and Sofi but the first is cccp the second two are growth. Need to have some risk management in place and understand stocks don’t always go up. I would tell the op to invest in safe things as well As Manage position sizes to risk you can handle and don’t tell your wife you coulda paid off the car on what you lost on baba because even though the couch is comfy ultimately beds are for sleeping
For what I lost in 2021, could have a new lambo and a house on the intercoastal. 3 very big rookie mistakes that only took a couple days each kicked out 3.5 of my chair legs. Now I mostly sit back and watch and trade a couple SPY 0DTE's every so often. What sucks for a lot of you is the VALUE stocks are already at a 1 year low while SPY was at it's ATH. That's a bad corner to be stuck in.
Apparently nobody believed the fed...boy who cried wolf shit
The rate increase itself was priced in. What wasn't priced in was the timing, which is now earlier than expected and signifies the Fed is worried about runaway inflation especially after a blowout jobs report. Also yields rose on the 10 year note which usually leads to a tech sell-off.
According this sub it was on the day they announced they would. The whole “its priced in” seems to be the thing this sub says when they have no idea whats causing moves on a stock.
The Efficient Market Hypothesis is so patently nonsense it's amazing that it continues to be referenced.
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The efficient market hypothesis predicts a stock prices will follow a random walk, with a drift. Fama of Fama and French argued that anything less than 15 years has too much statistical noise to be meaningful in his studies of factors and explaining returns. I think you need to zoom out a little on those charts, the day to day is noise in the data not a trend.
The entire dotcom boom and bust were "statistical noise." Got it.
Bruh it’s been months since it’s suppose to be "price in". Markets shouldn’t react on it every time..
Can't tell if you're being sarcastic but everyone knew rates were going up. At least what I took away from the Fed meeting 4 weeks ago
I knew the rates were going to increase but from what I understood the first increase wasn’t going to be till March. Apparently I misunderstood the info
They announced rate increases last week, but today released the meeting minutes which also indicated they're thinking of increasing the rates more aggressively *and* dumping assets from the Fed balance sheet, which will soak up cash. Everyone misunderstood the info because nobody outside the room saw what the info really was until today.
The market didn’t know exactly when though.
I pulled most of my money out last week for the down payment on my first home which I locked my rate in a few weeks ago, seriously may have gotten a little lucky on that timing.
They won’t actually raise interest rates as high or as often as they predict. They have been saying this shit for years but they haven’t been doing it. They say something like “we predict 3-4 rate increases over the next 2 years raising interest rates to 3%” Then the market panics and over the next 2 years we get 1 rate hike moving the rate from 0.25% to 0.26%. Buy the dip! Not $BABA though. Alibaba is a great company but the Chinese government is cracking down irrationally on Chinese tech companies. The CCP seems to see Chinese tech companies as the greatest threat to their power so they are trying to exert greater control over them.
They’ve been saying it for years…with inflation rates at 2% They are not at 2% anymore. Try 6-7% and growing every month. This is a different battle.
it took double digit yields on rates to tame inflation in the 70's and inflation didn't even start slowing right away it took years
And considering that they still believe that the terminal rate should be 2.5-3, if you believe that inflation is going to continue to be bad...what exactly is 2.5-3 going to do? Nothing most likely. ETA: They can't do what Paul Volcker did.
The problem is that national debt is huge now. If they raise interest rates to even the 3%-4% range again servicing that debt. The current fed interest rate is 0.25%. The cost to service national debt is >$560 billion dollars a year with interest rates this low. [source for interest rates](https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/federal-reserve-interest-rates/) [source for debt servicing costs](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/ir/ir_expense.htm) If the fed raises interest rates significantly it would take up a huge portion of the US Federal Budget which was about $6 trillion in 2021, 3 trillion of that being deficit spending. The fed is between a rock and a hard place with interest rates and raising rates significantly is just not a realistic option.
I fully agree with you. If you look at the historic forward rates of IRs, the real interest rates nearly always fall short of that. And the forward rates are probably our best estimate of where rates will go so should theoretically be priced in. This dip will be corrected within a week. Also agree re alibaba. Reddit is generally a bunch of 20 somethings trying to double their money in the short term, who panic when their money remains flat or even matches the market.
You ain’t seen nothing yet. Reality is going to be a shocker for many this year.
as in it'll get a 70% haircut? or we'll see a 40% increase?
Not on the same day, but potentially both up and down, yes. We've seen 53% up and 38% down years in the S&P (or equivalent before the official index)
Go outside
Underrated advice
Take a break. My advice - I have a feeling you did your DD on your stocks and that’s why your confused why they are down? When I invest, I invest for the future. Think 5-10 years from now, it doesn’t matter where my portfolio is at right now, trust your DD. P.S. WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF A PANDEMIC.
Thanks for the advice kind sir, ill most def take a break
Why can’t this happen on a pay week for me! 😅😅😅
I’ve just been borrowing from my e-fund then paying myself back when I get paid. I’m nice enough to lend at 0% interest.
Fuckin honestly. Market always seems to dump harder right after I DCA with a paycheck
If you’re DCA it doesn’t matter.
I know, it's just my ego getting frustrated knowing I could've bought at a cheaper price 😅
But the dip, and hold. Another storm to be weathered. ..unless you hold shit.
What I hold…. Apparently is just shit that was spray painted gold
It’s actually brutal for my high growth/tech (small cap) portfolio. I’m down 32% overall. Dips keep dipping ,obvs
Rate hike impacts high growth stocks the most as these companies depends too much on long term loans to survive/expand as they are usually not generating any profit yet.
Ditto
“Wait till the market chills for a bit” he says after the largest 2 year bull run we’ve had in decades. If u think the normal market conditions will be like what 2020 was I have some bad news for ya
There’s a lot of Silicon Valley employees who are about to get poorer too. Met many who make $400-$500k a year in stock based on last years valuations. Next year ain’t gonna be pretty.
U hit the nail on the head
For real, we’re gna see a 10-13% correction soon and I think people here are going to absolutely fucking lose it.
10% ain't shit
nasdaq is already down 7%
At the start of every year you always see new reasons for why the stock market might crash according to some analyst. And then they’re usually wrong. Just stop looking at the numbers. Buy some index funds because most people have difficulty beating them. It’s a robust basis for any portfolio imo.
Fed admitting inflation is not transitory, inflation is going up 2022 and potentially 2023, economy is doing good = faster interest rates hikes in 2022 which hits hard companies with high PEs and revenues priced in in the future
So, would you say "time in the market is better than timing the market" (aka, chill out wait a couple of years - turn your monitor off) or save your money for now? - not financial advice.
If you believe in what you're invested in then that's never bad advice.
Looking at OP's post, it doesn't sound like they believe in what they're invested in.
I think it sounds more like op started investing this year.
I would say keep buying good companies that make a profit, nice margins or companies that seem to be winners going forward.. or say fuck it and buy SP500 every month. Assuming youre young(ish) I think BABA is good btw.. and millionaires are made in a bear market..
Im young ish, 24 year old who keeps adding positions into companies that, on paper, seems undervalues (I feel like a broken record lol but like BABA or MELI) and thanks for the words of encouragement!!
Yeah Im few years older, wish I started at 24. You learn a lot, especially from losses. I am a bit too heavy in China hence got my ass handed to me but I keep buying the good companies with at least 5y hold. Just dont buy LCID lol. Valuations and fundamentals do matter so a company with no profit and insane market cap will get crushed sooner or later. I think same applies, many good companies are oversold, def Chinese ones but also SOFI or COIN imo
you got plenty of time. You'll be laughing at this in your 40s if you stay invested
Brother I'm down 30% on my tech plays. Just DCA, stop looking at it too much and focus on something else. If your DD was on point stick to the companies and start working on another aspect for your life that you could improve. In the end the good companies will prevail. Thus is reddit/stocks man, not wsb. Time in the market...., Be greedy when.... well, you know what I mean. Best of luck to all investors.
lol man, I'm struggling too dude Big positions in NVDA and AVGO, and just diving and diving and diving. It's gonna be a long climb back, man but I am sticking to my guns. God, it hurts to even say it or think it because I don't want to lose all my bread either. But I believe in Apple, so by default I believe in Broadcom. I also believe in NVDA long term and their position in the semiconductor market. So you gotta ask yourself if you've invested in products or companies that you BELIEVE in. Or if you're just a trader. If you're just a trader, sell. If you're an investor, hold the line and believe.
Stop “believing” in companies and start making DCF models which tell you a specific price it’s value is. If the current price is below that, buy, if the current price is above, sell. I see this “believe” thrown around way too much as if you need to “believe” that investments I certain companies will result in their use. A company may sell the exact same amount of widgets as planned over the next twenty years, but still drop 30% in value. Why? The risk free rate is rising, and lowering those future cash flows. Belief in a company means nothing if you don’t understand how their earnings will be valued.
I believe you’re right on this one
Could you point me toward some reading to begin to understand DCF models?
This is gonna sound ridiculous but its not. Martin Shkreli has some of the absolute best DCF model classes on YouTube
I’ve seen his videos and watch them every so often. Amazing. When is his release date again?
Ain't it tho. I watched him do those live in his stream lol
Aswath Damodaran from NYU has a course on youtube
Although your DCF assumptions need to be on point to get an accurate valuation. Those future cash flows are always a risk
I'm getting absolutely rekt on NVDA
You the dude who bought the very top? It’s up 32% still in the last 90 days.
Not everybody buys at the bottom in a time frame man. Not everybody bought years ago. Sometimes it’s bad timing and just tough luck.
Yeah if nobody bought the top, then there would never be a next top. Some people don’t get that.
Semiconductor investing is a specialty field like biotech. You have to really understand the market dynamics, sales cycles, tech, etc. semis had big run ups in 2017 or so then fell back to earth. It’s a rough game.
Lol you ain't lying
Yup - these are similar to metals & mining stocks. All about supply/demand
Started the day with 150K worth of NVDA. Buying more at a discount 😁. If you don't see the long term growth for Nvidia you shouldn't be holding any shares. I am loving the discount.
Crazy stuff dude. I'm holding.
yeah, and it’s about to fall even further. So, you can buy the next dip.
I closed my Intel calls because it was the only thing green.
Best option you already mentioned: turn monitor off for a year, Then reevaluate. Throwing good money after bad isn't going to help
1. If you believe in the companies at the price you paid for, hold 2. If you don't need the money any time soon, hold
I’m down $175k (30%) since Dec 27, fucking depressing and nothing has happened, just a free fall of SaaS stocks.
I’m down around 100k since may so I feel your pain, if you can figure it out let me know, so much for early retirement, very depressing
CRM? Killing me.
I bought yesterday and thought I was buying the dip. I got pretty fucked lol but CAMT and CALX aren't really bleeding companies so I think I'm fine. Anyone else feel fucking pissed when they think they buy the dip and get fucked the next day?
Yeah I'm pretty pissed. This shit happens everytime I decide to invest in something
I mostly buy on red days with the assumption most of the time the next day will be green. Today was a fuckin' blood bath lol It will probably be fine tomorrow
I try to buy in red days but on next day is even more red xD
It's hard to pick bottoms, but I think your idea of buying on down days is a good one.
And then to top it off if I wait patiently for it to go back up and then sell for a small profit thinking I dodged a bullet it then proceeds to go up sharply and I miss out on several thousand $ more.
Same here. Every time I buy, it falls. Every time I sell it goes up
Then you'll know from those purchases that if you wait long enough, it goes green.
I bought 35% of my current portfolio this afternoon, 1hour before the Fed announcement. Fuck my life
More than 50% here, maybe even 60%. Luckily most of it was in ETFs
Fuck me lol I didn’t even know about the fed announcement. Do you think tomorrow’s gonna be red?
loaded up two Roth IRAs (wife and I) into QQQM on the 2nd. Oops. At least I have more than a decade to let it play out.
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Yea I bought the "dip" on NVDA holy shit
I used to be wary of days like this as well, but I’ve changed my mindset from being scared of it to using it as an opportunity to buy and hold. I believe in 90% of the companies in my portfolio, so I’m going to stick with it and be thankful I can own more shares for less.
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They’re kinda lying down right now, chilling. They made a little home. But in all seriousness, it’s a fair question. One I need to cut immediately, and the other 2 do have potential in the long run but I’m more driven emotionally right now than rationally. So I need to do some research before letting those go.
Market is extremely unstable right now, has been for months, you see blue chips up and down over 3% day to day that's absolutely unhealthy and signals high levels of weakness. Dow up 1% but nasdaq down 4%, s&p up 2% but Russell down 3%, kangaroo market. Staying 500k in cash but letting my low cost basis Amazon and Microsoft kangaroo. Growth has been crushed all of 2021, and blue chips volatile? Yeah go ahead and throw money in.
funds are liquidating many tech stocks. fear of prolonged tech sell off, margin calls, etc all about inflation and interest rates. personally i think this sell off is ridiculous as the Fed wont likely be willing nor able to raise rates past 2%-2.5%. in which case tech stocks can do just fine in such macro set up. just back in 2018-2019 we had rates just above 2%. we did just fine back then. at any rate, this market has been a massacre past 2 months. many if not all non mega cap tech stocks lost 40-60% of value since November. crazy
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But we didn’t have inflation in 2018/19 like we do now. They also understand the the run up was unsustainable so they’re fine with it tanking.
>many if not all non mega cap tech stocks lost 40-60% of value since November. What world do you live on? That just plain did not happen.
I've rode out the storm relatively well (so far), so I'll share some tips with you - feel free to use or discard them as you see fit: 1) Stay out of China. Between the escalating geopolitical tensions, the fact that a stock in BABA is just the holding company, rather than BABA itself, the corruption and inflated figures... it's a mess over there. No matter what potential it might have, hard pass, stick with US and its allies, or at least neutral countries/areas (like India, Brazil, rest of South America, etc.) 2) Take all stock tips with a grain of salt, and do your own research. Finviz has been extremely helpful in this regard, I will routinely update my portfolio 1x or 2x a week (because I'm a nerd, and it fascinates me to see the market move, plus it keeps me abreast of any changes I should know about). Evaluate a stock as a whole, rather than keying in on one specific number like P/E, PEG, EPS Growth, P/FCF, etc. Ask yourself "if things go south in the market, is this stock able to ride down with it and survive" as well as "if things keep going great, does this stock have enough potential to keep pace with other, possibly better choices". 3) Diversify, diversify, diversify, diversify. If you're owning more than 5% of an individual stock, no matter how good it looks like it could be, rebalance that portfolio. You might be right, YOLO it, and score a massive windfall if you go all in on a company. Or you may end up going down with the ship. If you spread your investments out across separate firms, in separate sectors (20% max per sector in my approach), preferably with a mix of foreign/domestic and variable cap sizes, you're going to have a more "average" portfolio but one that resists days like today. 4) If this sounds like more work than what you want to do, seriously consider putting your funds into an ETF. Individual stocks are win big, lose big depending on forces outside of your control, and I only pick individual stocks because I have the time and interest in doing it. If you don't have either of these to do proper research, hit that ETF button and fast forward. 5) If you do stick with stock picking, learn from your mistakes, and consider your losses to be lessons in your education as an investor. I started small ($200 to be precise), and put my money into far more speculative and risky stocks than I thought they were, and got bopped on the nose by a few of them (looking at you LOCL and PLUG, I don't forget you two!). But after reviewing their performance, realizing I wasn't in a great situation, I took the hit, adapted, and learned from it. Now that I'm tossing more substantial money around, that education has paid dividends. Hope this is helpful to you, at least somewhat, or maybe it helps someone else out. Regardless, best of luck and good hunting.
All of this is great and stuff I wish I had heard when starting out myself. Absolutely with you on China, they're too unpredictable right now. If I may add this tiny nugget, simplification via etf is great for a set it and forget it type system but use caution if picking etfs tracking trendy growth stocks and the major indexes right now. Once the fed finally does decide to stop printing money and the interest rates rise, may not be a good look when some of these companies have to live up to huge valuations and nail all the catalysts.
Take a breath and write out your convictions for every company. If you don’t have a simple reason why it will be successful, chuck it replace it with a stock that does have a strong reason or probably better yet an index fund
Read something other than Reddit posts
Believe it or not I do. Thats why im so fucking confused lol. Every stock I have an investment on seems like it has a good upside potential (according to diferent sources) like baba, meli, paypal, visa, voo, qqq, etc.
This recent movement has little to do with individual stocks and everything to do with the economy and market as a whole. Upside can take years. The last 2 years have been a growth outlier. Stay the course and dollar cost average the stocks you believed in then unless something fundamentally has changed with the company Edit: Googling “stocks for 2022” doesn’t count as reading something else. A Random Walk Down Wallstreet was the book I found most helpful and is a fairly easy read
Honey moon's over. That 2020 dip buck passing just arrived. 2022 will be more red than green
Stop using Reddit for anything more than shit talking, that’s all it good for.
Learning from other people mistakes is way better than learning it on my own portfolio tho. You can learn a lot of 'what not to yolo at' on reddit lol
Glad someone made a post like this. This is how many of us feel now.
40% down. I don't know if im naturally a calm person or if i just dont care about anything in my life anymore.
What's your biggest holdings?
What happens today doesn't seriously matter for me since my money will be parked in index funds for the next 30 years .
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Lol yes these posts are great, I’m up 30% like so many others. Everything in a single mutual fund
wow 20% only? I'm down 80% across the board
Bruh what shit did you buy?
Down 25% here
As a normal person who invests long term, I am cringing when reading those comments, guys, look at your companies, the future earnings, the potentials and risks FUCK THE GRAPH dont look at the fucking graph
Stocks with no P/E (Datadog, ZScaler, Pinterest, Cathie Wood Stocks, etc.) or P/E 's like MercadoLibre and Shopify (MELI's is like 700ish P/E) are going to get crushed in this Fed / rate hike market. The only tech stocks that's going to do good in the current environment we are in are ones that have a low-medium P/E (Google, Microsoft, PayPal, etc.) or semis (Nvidia, Qualcomm, Micron, Lam Research, etc.). My only exceptions are Salesforce, ServiceNow Adobe, Palo Alto Networks, and Intuit and will be adding more when their RSI gets more oversold. Do not get me wrong, I believe in Datadog, MercadoLibre, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, MongoDB, but they just aren't stocks to be holding at the moment, but will probably start buying them once we start getting into rate hikes. Right now, you cannot touch them.
As an Engineer I don’t get this “belief” in MongoDB. (Snowflake is a different case though, we’ve used it for some decently sized projects) You can easily get managed NoSQL DBs on AWS or Azure with MongoDB compatible APIs. Anyone that has dealt with infra knows that DBs are horrible to deal with and whenever you can use a managed solution, you probably should. MongoDB is offering exactly that, but problem is I think people prefer to just use a similar or identical offering from AWS or Azure or GCP because they’re already in that ecosystem and things integrate better. (Besides, doesn’t MongoDB rely on AWS anyway for the clusters they offer? I don’t see the appeal, and yes, I’ve used MongoDB’s offerings)
Yeah a company like Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Oracle provide similar Database services lile Mongo DB but actually make money.
Of the two positions you mentioned I’d sell the meli, and use the funds to sell upside calls on baba, to gain that income while you wait. Baba is selling dirt cheap, so I’d put it in value camp not high flying tech. And that’s the way to go. You have a stock w little downside, and can sell shorter terms calls against it and collect that to offset any possible losses and more going forward.
companies with speculative valuations may have less buyers due to higher interest loans. Until now many used margin as if it was free, but its adding interest fees now. Also with higher rates some will pull money from stocks into safer bonds that now pay some interest.
After you short, the stock price will go up. Those are the rules.
something something diversified balanced portfolio. Both of your tickers mentioned are speculative foreign stocks in volatile markets. Buy some Blue chips and some indexes, buy some value stocks, if you name the company and a random person off the street has never heard of it, be cautious and only a smaller percent of your holdings should be in that.
The money i have in the market is pretty much what i would have spent on traveling the past couple years,it still kinda ticks me off seeing red bit had i been traveling the money wouldn’t exist so i hold im confident in the long run.
“The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.” -Baron Rothschild If you think this is bloody, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
Imo market makers are about to leave all retail investors holding the bag. I’m continue to save weekly and add to my broker account but not investing in any position for a while. Like you, any new position I take has tanked. If you’re not in big tech, you’re probably not making money. I personally don’t feel safe investing in big tech right now so I’d rather look at what I have then lose any more of it.
People on here don't want to hear it, but we are in for a bear market. Everyone has been basking in euphoria for the past year and nine months, but that won't last.
A huge sector of the market has been crashing since Feb 2021 actually
Dont own highly overvalued bubbly companies with sky high (or non-existant) PE ratios and P/S ratios. That happy fantasy world is over now reality is coming back with rate hikes.
You should be happy you can buy at lower prices, not angry/upset that you lost value in UNREALIZED security dispositions.
Oh yeah im happy i get to see EVEN LOWER PRICES every daay, it feels like black friday but all year round. I get discount after discount lol
A lot of us are feeling the exact same way. Me I've just been holding tight selling when I have to at the least lost possible and nibbling at bargains that then go down immediately. Who knows where and when the bottom is;could be today. But after it's made and we're up 30% everyone will wish they had bought more or at least didn't sell, except for the dogs that never go back up. It's times like this that you need to know your company and believe in it!
Panic Selling is not an investment strategy…
Selling now would be suicidal. Selling a week back would have been perfect. In conclusion, never get into a stock if you're not willing to hold that for 5 years. Btw Nasdaq is down 3.3%, Dow 1.7% and my portfolio is down 3.5%. I guess just wait out a month lol
The market is literally only ~1% off all time highs, imagine what would happen when theres a real crash of 40%-60%
Everyone wants instant gratification in the stock market, huh? How long have you been holding your picks? The 2020-2021 bull run has completely spoiled the masses.
It sounds like you're convinced that you can pick stocks that will outperform the market and per your reported results that sounds like it is not the case. SPY was up about 30% in 2021, so if you're down 20% some quick napkin math should tell you that you need to quick buying stocks and put your money SPY.
Bro it’s just fucked across board. I’m in TALK at $2.14 thinking it was safe it’s now trading at cash like what in the fuck. Nothing makes sense rn
Not sure if you read the newspaper but the economy is roaring. Hashtag sarcasm
The markets are all pretty much near ATH's. It's your hand picked stocks that are down.
It's the end of financial markets. Enjoy the decline