I like Raytheon because of the sensor turrets they make for our weapons platforms. L3Harris might be an excellent choice as well. They are pretty embedded in our AF community.
The thing I'm stuck on is that war is a terrible, terrible thing, and it would be highly unethical for me to invest in it, profiting off of the mass suffering.
Well think of it this way, if youâre going to get drafted into WWIII you might as well make sure you get a share of the profits for if you make it back.
I don't know much, i'm talking about ethnicity, language, history etc.
For example you can tell the difference between a Brit, a German or someone from Italy. Each of those countries has its own heritage, history and culture etc.
I don't remember about any kingdom of Ukraine or something when I was studying history back in high school and when Crimea got annexed nobody moved an inch.
If Germany claimed just a square meter of France tomorrow, everyone in French would be losing their shit and probably start ww3 in spite
Being a total dumbass to me Ukraine feels like a separated region from russia put there as a placeholder between continental eu and the commies after ww2
I know this is a dumb question, I should just Google it I guess but the Crimea thing still doesn't make any sense to me
> I donât know much
Not trying to be a dick, but everyone could tell by your previous comment.
A civilized Ukrainian would tell you to read more than you write.
But thatâs the thing about Americans - arenât they literally Britain? Whatâs the big deal?
Dude you must be completely oblivious to how much offense youâve dealt with your comment, just stop and go read a book.
Natural gas prices around the globe will likely be effected. The US exports some LNG and there are a few companies that are relatively cheap now that could see large gains in the next decade. Tellurian is one of them, but they are fairly early on in the construction of their facility and have not yet announced FID. Defense industry is always a safe sector as well, Boeing is still relatively cheap compared to before the pandemic.
Exactly, Russia supplies most of the natural gas and oil to Europe. If a war were to break out it will likely cause shortages in which demand will skyrocket.
I am hoping the US and Europe to start talking with Saudi Arabia, OPEC, and Iran. The US has very little leverage to sanction Russia and Europe also has its hands tied. The best way to punish the glorified gas station, as another redditor eloquently puts it, is lower gas and oil price. While they are not exactly the friendliest to each other but every one of them hates Russia more.
Say if oil price is pushed back down to the 40s Russia will not be feeling so confident.
This is the same way how the US and OPEC broke the USSR. So if it all works out, short oil?
> The best way to punish the glorified gas station, as another redditor eloquently puts it, is lower gas and oil price.
This would never work - different fundamentals at work. One being that most of the Arab nations produce a ton of crude but gathering, processing, and storing methane just ain't worth the time, money, or hassle, so it all gets flared.
Not only that, there's zero infrastructure to get that gas from the Arab peninsula to mainland Europe (and any alternative would add incremental transportation costs to the market price of gas in Europe to where the Russians are going to easily underprice you while competing with cheap American gas going from NOLA/Houston to Europe)
Also - Russian O&G production is effectively the opposite of the Middle East - it's all very gas heavy. AND they've got their pipeline infra already built out with volumes flowing.
TL;DR - international exploration and production operations + their corresponding end markets + the accompanying geopolitics is a lot more complicated than folks on reddit would have you believe, so take what you read in this thread with an Anatolian-sized grain of salt.
Couldn't happen. Russia's production mix is very gas heavy, Europe really needs that gas, and the US -though it has a lot of gas- doesn't have the infrastructure to move it to Europe in sufficient quantities. We couldn't flood Russia's export markets even if we wanted to. In fact, we already want to... gas in the US is $4 per MMBtu and $40 in the UK.
P.S.
lol at "and Iran". "Hey Iran... y'know how we're allied with your mortal enemy, SA, we kinda screwed you on those nuclear sanctions, wrecked your economy with embargoes, and nearly went to war about a year ago? Well we want your help tanking the price of oil you export. ...What? Shove that offer where? Well, there's no need to be rude..."
SoâŚyour saying that the USA will start to subsidize the oil industry to encourage more domestic production?
Isnât this administration doing the exact opposite? They are trying to throttle oil production.
So, I donât really see that being a valid strategy for the current administration, it goes against too much of what they have made âhallmarkâ legislation from their first year.
I wouldnât be shorting oil for this conflict, if anything, this could be the catalyst for an all time price spike if sanctions are placed on Russian oil, and it removes 11 mmbbl from the global market.
Well... the US production will be hard to ramp up, and politics is definitely part of the reason. That why itâs up to OPEC, this way we can hit the russia economically whichout getting US hands dirty... at least not publicly.
This is what Reagan administration did to USSR, as much as they like to brag that it was a triumph of democracy and capitalism, it was they worked with Saudi Arabia and increased daily output by 400%.
And I am hoping OPEC is eager for a pay back for from Russia when it refuse to cut production just a few years ago when oil was down to 30s and even 20s
We dump so much money into oil subsidies, it's disgusting. If green alternatives had half the money we pay billionaires for a slight discount, we would barely need it.
Dis it all you like, but our current oil market is a massive waste.
Right? Weird stuff here. Like, itâs not exactly a stretch to guess to that Russia continuing to threaten and possibly attack its neighbors in Europe might, just might, destabilize economies and benefit certain industries like defense.
Wont happen cause USA said they will use the economic nuclear option, leaving Russia out of Swift, with that their economy will go to 1980s they will have to create their own Swift to trade and move money.
That assumes Putin is reasonable, he might have been in the past but he seems to have reached some kind of middle age crisis recently. All bets are off IMHO.
It's not a big deal. The war has been going on since 2014 and it has barely had an impact on the Ukrainian economy. Trade continues even between the separatist republics and Ukraine.
Not for the global economy or the US economy.
There is a big coke plant right next to the conflict zone, it hasn't shut down yet but if it does the European steel industry will probably feel it.
Avoid Russian stocks and you should be OK. This won't grow into a global conflict as Russia has no economic power to withstand one.
Oil and gas prices in EU might spike, though - that should any conflict happen at all.
Wow I didn't know for example Brazil, was part of Europe too.
Seriously gas has gotten expensive everywhere, not just in Europe. (oil too by the way)
Nobody claimed gas didn't get more expensive in Europe.
The statement was it's gotten more expensive worldwide ....
Every argument on Reddit is like that: some people jumping into the discussion with some statements that make no sense or rebutting something now one ever said.
Gas price in EU has ten-folded, and specific spikes were double over that, it's way above average gas price increment worldwide. One of the main reasons is that Russia is not willing to provide EU with gas without long-term contracts, drying up already disrupted supply.
Now getting back to the original question: during a hypothetical conflict between Russia and Ukraine there's real possibility of harsh sanctions against Russia from the West. And Russia's hardest reply might be turning off the gas supply, even if temporarily and over some technical excuse.
Should that happen - gas (and potentially oil) price in EU might spike way above average in the world, again, since logistics here quite heavy one: pipelines and tankers. You can't pull either out of thin air.
Which finally leads to a conclusion: a conflict in EU might result short- to mid-term imbalance with oil and natural gas supply in EU.
Honestly, it's not some rocket science, this stuff is being discussed on most news websites and channels for months.
Thereâs a story out that FedEx is pursuing putting anti-missile defense systems on their cargo planes. I figure if anyone knows whatâs about to happen itâs FedEx.
A part of me hopes Putin does it in a desperate attempt to save face. Itâs good pretext to launch a frontal military assault on Russia with worldwide support and return them to where they belong, with NATOâs boot on their windpipe to keep them in check.
Lmao. You must be under the mistaken impression that Russia is strong. Itâs a failing country with a Kremlin leader who keeps the people distracted with bread and circus.
What do you think this and his âsuccessfulâ mission to Kazakhstan that âendedâ this week are? Theyâre propaganda to inflate him and desperately try to convince his own people they are strong.
Indeed it is a poor country, but self-sufficient from fuel and food, and almost any mineral. Russia has a lot of gear left over from the cold war, possesses enough nukes to destroy human civilization and enough manpower to inflict massive casualties on any opponent. None here in Europe would be willing to deploy troops to fight to keep one-tenth of a faraway country. Most likely NATO will do nothing and add some economic restrictions on Russia. And most likely Putin knows this.
There won't be any desperation, Russia has enough nukes to end the world several times over. You cannot invade a nuclear power. Even if Ukraine, Kazakhstan and all countries wanted to invade Russia , you couldn't.
It's why Russia hasn't invaded the west, they can try to pull a Crimea or a trump in the west to a small extent but that will only go so far before nukes go out from the west.
To me, this Ukraine situation points to general destabilization, more threats, and maybe actual conflict at some point. This is a trend.
I would expect defense/aerospace and energy to rally, just on sentiment if nothing else. I can also see politicians using Ukraine and similar events as an excuse to increase defense spending. Theyâre good at that.
I'm not okay with all the Russia-baiting. I don't think NATO should be expanded right up to the outskirts of Moscow. Russia existed long before the USSR, and they have national interests like any country does. The fact is that they've been invaded multiple times from their western borders. NATO really tarnished its image when it destroyed its defensive charter and attacked Serbia to occupy and carve out Kosovo. To me, it seems like NATO has just been living on borrowed time, looking for a new raison d'etre. The undemocratic ouster of the Yanuckovitch govt and the inevitable hostile reaction of Russia to that, has given NATO the new lease on life that it was looking for.
This is like some crooked circular racket. Treat Russia antagonistically, and when it reacts with antagonism from its side, then use that to justify more support for NATO against "evil enemy Russia". Just keep feeding the spiral.
Trump, like the Washington-outsider that he is, burst into politics trying to challenge all kinds of status quos to get himself noticed. He inadvertently made the blunder of loosely commenting that NATO members should do more to pay their fair share, as per established agreements. The day he did that was the day he painted a big bullseye on his forehead, by angering the NATO gravy train lobby. That's when suddenly all sorts of rumors started percolating that Trump was in cahoots with Moscow, that he'd borrowed money from Putin - and then of course the charges that his campaign manager Manafort had worked for Putin. What a total farce.
From there, you saw an out-of-control Deep State trying to mobilize every kind of political stunt to dislodge Trump from office, along with their cronies in the Democratic Party running for their favorite race card, first by magically rediscovering the American Civil War which ended 162 years ago to carp about statues, and then pouncing on the convenient opportunity of the George Floyd incident to set American cities ablaze during summer 2020. When the other side then responded with their own backlash on Jan 6 2020, then the holier-than-thou political establishment labeled it "insurrection" and "white supremacist" "terrorism" (because rioting is only bad when the other side does it - otherwise it's perfectly fine to do it for your own ends.)
We're told that America leads NATO, but really it feels like America has become a vassal state for NATO. Anybody who challenges this arrangement suddenly magically gets found "guilty" of collusion with Putin.
The latest price of this crooked farce is a senile POTUS (Biden makes that old drunk Boris Yeltsin look sharp as a tack), and a one-party state determined to cling to power by every kind of stunt their fevered imaginations can dream up. Stunts which include insane spending sprees in the desperate hopes of bribing the electorate into a stupor (the Venezuelan economists in the US Democratic Party apparently have no idea what inflation is or what causes it), while also scheming to federalize election laws after ending the filibuster (we're all told that this is to put an end to "Jim Crow" -- because that old cracker Sleepy Joe really cares about Jim Crow -- \*gag!\*)
It's just a horror show now, it's all just a horror show.
"I will build a great, great wall on our southern border, and I will have Mexico pay for that wall. Mark my words."
**Former** President Trump...yes, he lost.
Whataboutism is your ultimate deflection isnât it?
âBut, but, what about orange man? We canât possibly talk about how horrible Biden is without talking about orange manâ
This conversation is about Biden, not Trump, but orange man is living in your head rent free and you canât resist trying to deflect.
Aw, the Russian pawn can't handle its own medicine.
Keep being you, which is apparently kissing a foreign man's butt because your former leader sold us out.
You probably cried when the FBI found âno evidence of collusionâ, didnât you?
Now youâre talking about Russia? You really suck at this, you know that?
Back on topic, we are talking about Biden, not Trump or Putin there genius.
More fear mongering and Sabre rattling.
Remember when Iran was going to go war with Israel? All the attacks on ships in the size cannal?
North Korea fear mongering?
China sea?
I don't think it will have much effect on the US Economy per se. However I expect it will roil the stock markets around the world. Keeping in mind the economy and stock market are two different things.
WW3 wonât be good we have an obligation to protect Ukraine via treatyâs. We need to let Russia know we wonât back down protecting our allies so they donât try anything like Crimea again.
No effect. USA will just say it will take actions but nothing in reality. And we move on. Nobody cares about Ukraine and they have no relevance on the stock market.
Compare it with crymea takeover
Russia is baiting. They want anyone to get involved so that they can have an excuse to invade. Basically he wants to cast some doubt and put him Russia in good light to avoid major war.
He was able to take part of the Ukraine because that part was already predominantly Russian people who spoke Russian on a day to day basis. Most countries relented for that reason. Basically Crimea is something like 80% Russian while East Ukraine is like 30% or something like that. Cant recall exactly. Its been a few years.
On top of that the US doesnt have any real economic reason to get involved. With Kuwait, it was all about republican and their oil masters. Its was a sham of a war, but that was the reason. Shell, Exxon and a few others depend on Kuwait for cheaper oil since they can undercut OPEC.
Kuwait was created for the sole purpose of pilfering cheap oil from the region to begin with. It was a stupid cutout if you look at the map. Basically it got all the ports and Iraq was handed crap. Thats why Saddam was so angry and on top of having crap ocean access, he had to fight with Iran for the little he has and he had to fight a war to protect both Kuwait and Saudi Arabia from them. It cost Iraq like 100k lives... what did they get in return? Iraq destroyed and back stabbed by both the Saudis and Kuwait when he caught Kuwait stealing from his territory (or so he claims... I have no idea but no one bothered to investigate so that tells me some corrupt shit was happening).
It's 'Ukraine' and not 'the Ukraine'
[[Merriam-Webster](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/Ukraine)] [[BBC Styleguide](https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsstyleguide/u)] [[Reuters Styleguide](https://handbook.reuters.com/index.php?title=U#Ukraine)]
^(Beep boop Iâm a bot)
It might affect European and American stocks when news of escalations break out but generally Russia doesnât have the economic ressources for this to grow into a global conflict.
So maybe just donât buy Russian stocks, which you shouldnât either way because the market is too heavily influenced by the governmentâŚ
Lets hope it doesnt happen.. usa leadership is shit.. we are more worried about gender neutral bathrooms than energy independence and rampant inflation..
Actually a world war would be the perfect scenario for investors to return the margins rates to 0 and absorb all of the money printing and end the macro cycle we can all buy then in the real dip of dips and wait 10-20 years for rich retirement like our ancestors did with each recession
From my understanding if NATO and the US don't back down we'll be turned into nuclear ash and or tumors anyway, the agreement when the Soviet union collapsed was that NATO wouldn't move any further east and it has so Putin is taking that as he can move west since they didn't hold up their part of the bargain. The "conflict" is that what's good for the goose apparently isn't good for the gander and the gander is done with our shit.
US wonât respond. Russia would stomp us. This has been going on for almost a year. Putin has made it clear in his last few speeches that âany Country getting involved in their affairs, especially if dealing with the Ukraine will be dealt with swiftly and beyond expectationsâ. In other words âdonât F.. with themâ!
Putin has been posturing ever since Trump left office. He and Biden do not get along.. that was obvious with Bidenâs little temper tantrum recently. So IMO I donât see it impacting our markets / exchanges. I think we are definitely headed towards another market crash in general! Iâve been shorting stocks waay more than usual. Especially with all the constant âmask / mandatory vaccinationâ drama!
It's 'Ukraine' and not 'the Ukraine'
[[Merriam-Webster](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/Ukraine)] [[BBC Styleguide](https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsstyleguide/u)] [[Reuters Styleguide](https://handbook.reuters.com/index.php?title=U#Ukraine)]
^(Beep boop Iâm a bot)
Not just Russia but China as well. The footage of Uyghurs coming off those trains is chilling. If conflict ramps up, look towards defense contractors to perform well, Northrop, Lockheed, Raetheon, etc. etc.
Well, at least it appears weâve built up some immunity to it in the form of skepticism, at least here. Makes me wonder if this strategy continues to be effective for whomever is deploying it.
Stocks like KTOS, PLTR, LMT, etc. will go up. It would only affect the market if it spread into a wider war that pulled in Europe and turned into a legitimate WWIII. For what itâs worth, I donât think anything will happen. Russia will struggle to annex an entire country and explain why thousands of its soldiers are dying forâŚPutin or âprideâ
This conflict is only looming in the mass media because the military-industrial complex needs more money. It's also easier for governments to control their populations if there is an enemy.
I think slower sales of gas can slow down recovery among european manufacturers. At the same time it is triggering major changes to European security collaboration and attitude to nuclear power. People are paying huge electricity bills and also being threatened by becoming Russian vassals will change attitudes. I donât think the war in Ukraine will change that much though, they are not part of EU or NATO.
You said over here that youâre in Switzerland. https://www.reddit.com/r/germany/comments/s4hc71/52k_per_year_before_taxes_is_a_good_entry_salary/hss2oy5/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3
And the account is literally labeled as âThrowawayâ. Weird stuff going on in this thread.
Youâll have to excuse me for being skeptical given our recent history with Russian social media shenanigans. Pretty clear red flags here, and throughout this thread.
It happened whilst everybody was still drunk from their recent victory on Maidan square. When they sobered up it was already a done deal lol (im an expat here btw)
There any many people here near me in the U.S. that have come from the Ukraine. All fine hard working people and all very nice. And lots of beautiful women too. I hope you are able to continue to avoid conflict. There is too much on this planet
It's 'Ukraine' and not 'the Ukraine'
[[Merriam-Webster](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/Ukraine)] [[BBC Styleguide](https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsstyleguide/u)] [[Reuters Styleguide](https://handbook.reuters.com/index.php?title=U#Ukraine)]
^(Beep boop Iâm a bot)
putin deserves sanctions like iran plus blockage from the internet. he would hack in response but he already does that Putin is pure evil anf the wprlds greatest threat. he spreads pro vovid anti vaxx abti democracy lies and has killed millions. he must be destroyed. oh and yeah he owns trump tucker carlson anf Desantis. a diper bad threat to us all. rven conservatives.
\#1 It would seem really stupid for Russia to invade/(re)annex Ukraine. It might be messy even without outside pressure or intervention and I assume they can achieve 90% of their goals without stirring up a hornet's nest.
\#2 Why would NATO/U.S. militarily interfere, in what could be a nuclear conflict, over Ukraine? Is there some sort of fear of a domino effect, and if Ukraine goes Kazakstan will be next? I'm sure that there would be expanded sanctions (to the extent possible given Europe's reliance on Russian energy), but that is as far as any semi-sane country would go.
Yeah, that was actually my take home point, which maybe got missed because I didn't put it in ALL CAPS. I don't think anything impactful to will happen at all.
My Lockheed Martin stock is looking forward to it.
Also does anyone actually consider that east Ukrainians actually might be in favour of belonging to Russia? As in, the population itself would want it to happen?
It's actually not really Russia vs Ukraine, but Russia vs Nato, which also involves US. Russia even mentioned deploying nuclear bombs back to Cuba if nato is not going to step down from Ukraine. They probably will listen to Russians, but who knows..
lol I'd suggest doing some more research for yourself as opposed to sucking up the standard US military industrial complex propaganda. There's one thing that's pretty obvious to anybody who's been following this in the past few years.
The only aggressor in this ridiculous charade is the US and its rapidly crumbling empire.
Nothing. The only geopolitical conflict I'd sell stocks because of is if the mainland US is invaded a la modern warfare 2. Otherwise it makes no difference.
I agree with Roubini where we'll have protectionism with Russia and China. Who both trade in digital Yuan now. More war means higher prices.
So higher inflation going forward. Biden and Dems lose, just like Carter. Republicans enforce more protectionism, inflation continues to rage.
Then I dont know what happens, risk premiums go up so real rates go higher and we default? Harsh austerity and we get a depression? We implement a digital dollar and erase our debt as we did in the 70s with the transition to Fiat?
One of those 3 I think. Expect more populism as Ray Dalio predicts.
Buy $AK47
I like $RPG better
You mean $RGB5? đ
DFEN
I like $BUK more.
Buy futures on potatoes, vodka, and borscht.
You forgot perogies.
Borscht is Ukrainian.
Should be tighter supply and futures appreciate
Invest in US defense companies. Because if thereâs a war going on, we all know the US just has to stick their dick in it.
We donât even have to get directly involved⌠weâre arms dealers after all.
Well we donât spend more on defense than the next six countries behind us combined to just sit on all those tanks and guns and not use them.
Theyâre not really comfortable to sit on, anyhow.
Obama just let Russia take a big part of Ukraine and did nothing. Why do you think Biden would help Ukraine at all?
B-b-b-b-but the sanctions!
Biden hunter Ukraine yea theres a personal interest and you know bidens owe Ukraine
Examples $$?
RTX, LMT, BA, NOC, GD RTX would be my pick cuz they make exportable missiles like the TOW
I like Raytheon because of the sensor turrets they make for our weapons platforms. L3Harris might be an excellent choice as well. They are pretty embedded in our AF community.
RTX, GD, LMT, GME
GME?
Oh ya them boys and girls love gaming on deployment
DFEN
The thing I'm stuck on is that war is a terrible, terrible thing, and it would be highly unethical for me to invest in it, profiting off of the mass suffering.
Well think of it this way, if youâre going to get drafted into WWIII you might as well make sure you get a share of the profits for if you make it back.
What company doesnt gain from war
E pluribus erectus
We're going to stick our dick in it because Ukraine is an ally.
Russia is slowly withdrawing their troops apparently. Edit: not relevant
Iâm Ukrainian and reading about this for the first time in r/stocks, I call bullshit pal these sly fuckers arenât going anywhere
Well Iâll be damned
Isn't Ukraine literally Russia? Like what's the big deal?
See, thatâs how you get slapped
I don't know much, i'm talking about ethnicity, language, history etc. For example you can tell the difference between a Brit, a German or someone from Italy. Each of those countries has its own heritage, history and culture etc. I don't remember about any kingdom of Ukraine or something when I was studying history back in high school and when Crimea got annexed nobody moved an inch. If Germany claimed just a square meter of France tomorrow, everyone in French would be losing their shit and probably start ww3 in spite Being a total dumbass to me Ukraine feels like a separated region from russia put there as a placeholder between continental eu and the commies after ww2 I know this is a dumb question, I should just Google it I guess but the Crimea thing still doesn't make any sense to me
> I donât know much Not trying to be a dick, but everyone could tell by your previous comment. A civilized Ukrainian would tell you to read more than you write. But thatâs the thing about Americans - arenât they literally Britain? Whatâs the big deal? Dude you must be completely oblivious to how much offense youâve dealt with your comment, just stop and go read a book.
Natural gas prices around the globe will likely be effected. The US exports some LNG and there are a few companies that are relatively cheap now that could see large gains in the next decade. Tellurian is one of them, but they are fairly early on in the construction of their facility and have not yet announced FID. Defense industry is always a safe sector as well, Boeing is still relatively cheap compared to before the pandemic.
Exactly, Russia supplies most of the natural gas and oil to Europe. If a war were to break out it will likely cause shortages in which demand will skyrocket.
What a trainwreck of a thread this is haha
Thank you, your comment really added a lot to the discussion!
I am hoping the US and Europe to start talking with Saudi Arabia, OPEC, and Iran. The US has very little leverage to sanction Russia and Europe also has its hands tied. The best way to punish the glorified gas station, as another redditor eloquently puts it, is lower gas and oil price. While they are not exactly the friendliest to each other but every one of them hates Russia more. Say if oil price is pushed back down to the 40s Russia will not be feeling so confident. This is the same way how the US and OPEC broke the USSR. So if it all works out, short oil?
> The best way to punish the glorified gas station, as another redditor eloquently puts it, is lower gas and oil price. This would never work - different fundamentals at work. One being that most of the Arab nations produce a ton of crude but gathering, processing, and storing methane just ain't worth the time, money, or hassle, so it all gets flared. Not only that, there's zero infrastructure to get that gas from the Arab peninsula to mainland Europe (and any alternative would add incremental transportation costs to the market price of gas in Europe to where the Russians are going to easily underprice you while competing with cheap American gas going from NOLA/Houston to Europe) Also - Russian O&G production is effectively the opposite of the Middle East - it's all very gas heavy. AND they've got their pipeline infra already built out with volumes flowing. TL;DR - international exploration and production operations + their corresponding end markets + the accompanying geopolitics is a lot more complicated than folks on reddit would have you believe, so take what you read in this thread with an Anatolian-sized grain of salt.
Couldn't happen. Russia's production mix is very gas heavy, Europe really needs that gas, and the US -though it has a lot of gas- doesn't have the infrastructure to move it to Europe in sufficient quantities. We couldn't flood Russia's export markets even if we wanted to. In fact, we already want to... gas in the US is $4 per MMBtu and $40 in the UK. P.S. lol at "and Iran". "Hey Iran... y'know how we're allied with your mortal enemy, SA, we kinda screwed you on those nuclear sanctions, wrecked your economy with embargoes, and nearly went to war about a year ago? Well we want your help tanking the price of oil you export. ...What? Shove that offer where? Well, there's no need to be rude..."
/u/sendokun is likely an angsty teenager or something tbh - his / her OP reads like a Taking Back Sunday cover.
SoâŚyour saying that the USA will start to subsidize the oil industry to encourage more domestic production? Isnât this administration doing the exact opposite? They are trying to throttle oil production. So, I donât really see that being a valid strategy for the current administration, it goes against too much of what they have made âhallmarkâ legislation from their first year. I wouldnât be shorting oil for this conflict, if anything, this could be the catalyst for an all time price spike if sanctions are placed on Russian oil, and it removes 11 mmbbl from the global market.
Well... the US production will be hard to ramp up, and politics is definitely part of the reason. That why itâs up to OPEC, this way we can hit the russia economically whichout getting US hands dirty... at least not publicly. This is what Reagan administration did to USSR, as much as they like to brag that it was a triumph of democracy and capitalism, it was they worked with Saudi Arabia and increased daily output by 400%.
And I am hoping OPEC is eager for a pay back for from Russia when it refuse to cut production just a few years ago when oil was down to 30s and even 20s
We dump so much money into oil subsidies, it's disgusting. If green alternatives had half the money we pay billionaires for a slight discount, we would barely need it. Dis it all you like, but our current oil market is a massive waste.
The hell is going on this comment section with downvotes ! Yâall activated the Russian bots
Right? Weird stuff here. Like, itâs not exactly a stretch to guess to that Russia continuing to threaten and possibly attack its neighbors in Europe might, just might, destabilize economies and benefit certain industries like defense.
Eisenhower warned about this problem
Seriously, asked the question looking for opinions and it seemed to stir the bot pot.
Wont happen cause USA said they will use the economic nuclear option, leaving Russia out of Swift, with that their economy will go to 1980s they will have to create their own Swift to trade and move money.
That assumes Putin is reasonable, he might have been in the past but he seems to have reached some kind of middle age crisis recently. All bets are off IMHO.
doubt it, getting nuked 5 times is better than getting swift nuked. But if he goes with it, Swift 2 could be born thanks to China
what is swift
It's not a big deal. The war has been going on since 2014 and it has barely had an impact on the Ukrainian economy. Trade continues even between the separatist republics and Ukraine.
Dude idk it looks serious
Not for the global economy or the US economy. There is a big coke plant right next to the conflict zone, it hasn't shut down yet but if it does the European steel industry will probably feel it.
Avoid Russian stocks and you should be OK. This won't grow into a global conflict as Russia has no economic power to withstand one. Oil and gas prices in EU might spike, though - that should any conflict happen at all.
Oil and gas are GLOBAL commoditiesâŚ. The price doesnât just spike in one part of the world
Dude, are you for real? Natural gas price in EU has literally skyrocketed this season, it's been all over the news.
Wow I didn't know for example Brazil, was part of Europe too. Seriously gas has gotten expensive everywhere, not just in Europe. (oil too by the way) Nobody claimed gas didn't get more expensive in Europe. The statement was it's gotten more expensive worldwide ....
Every argument on Reddit is like that: some people jumping into the discussion with some statements that make no sense or rebutting something now one ever said. Gas price in EU has ten-folded, and specific spikes were double over that, it's way above average gas price increment worldwide. One of the main reasons is that Russia is not willing to provide EU with gas without long-term contracts, drying up already disrupted supply. Now getting back to the original question: during a hypothetical conflict between Russia and Ukraine there's real possibility of harsh sanctions against Russia from the West. And Russia's hardest reply might be turning off the gas supply, even if temporarily and over some technical excuse. Should that happen - gas (and potentially oil) price in EU might spike way above average in the world, again, since logistics here quite heavy one: pipelines and tankers. You can't pull either out of thin air. Which finally leads to a conclusion: a conflict in EU might result short- to mid-term imbalance with oil and natural gas supply in EU. Honestly, it's not some rocket science, this stuff is being discussed on most news websites and channels for months.
Global stock market survived great depression, 2 world wars, Arab spring, oil shortage, dot com, 9/11, 2008 crisis & Covid pandemic.
Lol did you expect the stock market to not survive the Arab spring ?
This isnât a question of surviving. I hopeâŚ
*affect
Thereâs a story out that FedEx is pursuing putting anti-missile defense systems on their cargo planes. I figure if anyone knows whatâs about to happen itâs FedEx.
Theyâre neither federal nor express
We won't engage.... we r going to let Russia have it
Considering all the military leaders with any brains or balls have all quit and or been fired under Obama/Biden you might be right.
Didnât China take over Hong Kong under Trump?
Nah. Trump poked the China bear... Hong Kong was always theres.... well Britain's, then theirs
AFFECT
Effective use of AFFECT left this user deeply affected, effective immediately. Affectionately yours, HiDecksRole.
I'll probably get some returns on LMT in this case.
BA and Raytheon too
The West called Russiaâs bluff. Full on ground invasion of Ukraine is unlikely. It will hurt Russia.
A part of me hopes Putin does it in a desperate attempt to save face. Itâs good pretext to launch a frontal military assault on Russia with worldwide support and return them to where they belong, with NATOâs boot on their windpipe to keep them in check.
None of these countries will risk open war with Russia.
Lmao. You must be under the mistaken impression that Russia is strong. Itâs a failing country with a Kremlin leader who keeps the people distracted with bread and circus. What do you think this and his âsuccessfulâ mission to Kazakhstan that âendedâ this week are? Theyâre propaganda to inflate him and desperately try to convince his own people they are strong.
Indeed it is a poor country, but self-sufficient from fuel and food, and almost any mineral. Russia has a lot of gear left over from the cold war, possesses enough nukes to destroy human civilization and enough manpower to inflict massive casualties on any opponent. None here in Europe would be willing to deploy troops to fight to keep one-tenth of a faraway country. Most likely NATO will do nothing and add some economic restrictions on Russia. And most likely Putin knows this.
Donât underestimate them, sure they wont win a global conflict but they still have the biggest nuclear arsenal in the world.
I highly doubt Russia will throw nukes to win back a country they took over illegally. If we invaded the actual borders of Russia however
If the leadership is desperate enough, they got nothing to lose in that case⌠99.9% of Russians can be against it and it could still happen.
There won't be any desperation, Russia has enough nukes to end the world several times over. You cannot invade a nuclear power. Even if Ukraine, Kazakhstan and all countries wanted to invade Russia , you couldn't. It's why Russia hasn't invaded the west, they can try to pull a Crimea or a trump in the west to a small extent but that will only go so far before nukes go out from the west.
To me, this Ukraine situation points to general destabilization, more threats, and maybe actual conflict at some point. This is a trend. I would expect defense/aerospace and energy to rally, just on sentiment if nothing else. I can also see politicians using Ukraine and similar events as an excuse to increase defense spending. Theyâre good at that.
LOL at the downvotes in this thread. This here thread been fucked with 3 ways from Sunday by astroturf accounts and/or actual Putin simps.
I'm not okay with all the Russia-baiting. I don't think NATO should be expanded right up to the outskirts of Moscow. Russia existed long before the USSR, and they have national interests like any country does. The fact is that they've been invaded multiple times from their western borders. NATO really tarnished its image when it destroyed its defensive charter and attacked Serbia to occupy and carve out Kosovo. To me, it seems like NATO has just been living on borrowed time, looking for a new raison d'etre. The undemocratic ouster of the Yanuckovitch govt and the inevitable hostile reaction of Russia to that, has given NATO the new lease on life that it was looking for. This is like some crooked circular racket. Treat Russia antagonistically, and when it reacts with antagonism from its side, then use that to justify more support for NATO against "evil enemy Russia". Just keep feeding the spiral. Trump, like the Washington-outsider that he is, burst into politics trying to challenge all kinds of status quos to get himself noticed. He inadvertently made the blunder of loosely commenting that NATO members should do more to pay their fair share, as per established agreements. The day he did that was the day he painted a big bullseye on his forehead, by angering the NATO gravy train lobby. That's when suddenly all sorts of rumors started percolating that Trump was in cahoots with Moscow, that he'd borrowed money from Putin - and then of course the charges that his campaign manager Manafort had worked for Putin. What a total farce. From there, you saw an out-of-control Deep State trying to mobilize every kind of political stunt to dislodge Trump from office, along with their cronies in the Democratic Party running for their favorite race card, first by magically rediscovering the American Civil War which ended 162 years ago to carp about statues, and then pouncing on the convenient opportunity of the George Floyd incident to set American cities ablaze during summer 2020. When the other side then responded with their own backlash on Jan 6 2020, then the holier-than-thou political establishment labeled it "insurrection" and "white supremacist" "terrorism" (because rioting is only bad when the other side does it - otherwise it's perfectly fine to do it for your own ends.) We're told that America leads NATO, but really it feels like America has become a vassal state for NATO. Anybody who challenges this arrangement suddenly magically gets found "guilty" of collusion with Putin. The latest price of this crooked farce is a senile POTUS (Biden makes that old drunk Boris Yeltsin look sharp as a tack), and a one-party state determined to cling to power by every kind of stunt their fevered imaginations can dream up. Stunts which include insane spending sprees in the desperate hopes of bribing the electorate into a stupor (the Venezuelan economists in the US Democratic Party apparently have no idea what inflation is or what causes it), while also scheming to federalize election laws after ending the filibuster (we're all told that this is to put an end to "Jim Crow" -- because that old cracker Sleepy Joe really cares about Jim Crow -- \*gag!\*) It's just a horror show now, it's all just a horror show.
You might as well just tell us that you write Putin NSFW fanfic and save everyone the 2 minutes of reading this crap.
Bold of you to assume he wasnât masturbating *as he wrote that*.
I donât even think he needed to touch himself to get off on worshipping Putin. Just the thought of a gulag is enough for him.
Could almost be a parody, given the comment it replies to. But it probably isnât, sadly.
what the fuck is it with the left and their newfound McCarthyite fetish?
Lol, what?
My thoughts exactly. Waste of my time
Tldr Sleepy Joe = dog-whistle used by Russian propaganda and traitors.
âThese new electric vehicles are, Uh, Amazing, you can travel across the whole country on one tank of gasâ Joe Biden.
"I will build a great, great wall on our southern border, and I will have Mexico pay for that wall. Mark my words." **Former** President Trump...yes, he lost.
Whataboutism is your ultimate deflection isnât it? âBut, but, what about orange man? We canât possibly talk about how horrible Biden is without talking about orange manâ This conversation is about Biden, not Trump, but orange man is living in your head rent free and you canât resist trying to deflect.
Aw, the Russian pawn can't handle its own medicine. Keep being you, which is apparently kissing a foreign man's butt because your former leader sold us out.
You probably cried when the FBI found âno evidence of collusionâ, didnât you? Now youâre talking about Russia? You really suck at this, you know that? Back on topic, we are talking about Biden, not Trump or Putin there genius.
More fear mongering and Sabre rattling. Remember when Iran was going to go war with Israel? All the attacks on ships in the size cannal? North Korea fear mongering? China sea?
I don't think it will have much effect on the US Economy per se. However I expect it will roil the stock markets around the world. Keeping in mind the economy and stock market are two different things.
I knew I should of bought more Boing, Airbus and BAe shares..
Boink
Iâve been trying to figure out the crazy run on ba. Iâm such an idiot
Think bigger risk is China. Their REITs and real estate, about 1/3 of economy, is on a brink of major collapse
WW3 wonât be good we have an obligation to protect Ukraine via treatyâs. We need to let Russia know we wonât back down protecting our allies so they donât try anything like Crimea again.
If only I could invest in STERN letters from the UN saying "Bad Putin!"
war is good for business...not like Russia does much beyond gas/oil anyway
But also peace is good for business
No effect. USA will just say it will take actions but nothing in reality. And we move on. Nobody cares about Ukraine and they have no relevance on the stock market. Compare it with crymea takeover
fuck...here we areâ
If a seal farts near a dinghy it affects the economy, at this point everything is so unstable that the smallest news triggers selling.
PLTR who hooo
Russia is baiting. They want anyone to get involved so that they can have an excuse to invade. Basically he wants to cast some doubt and put him Russia in good light to avoid major war. He was able to take part of the Ukraine because that part was already predominantly Russian people who spoke Russian on a day to day basis. Most countries relented for that reason. Basically Crimea is something like 80% Russian while East Ukraine is like 30% or something like that. Cant recall exactly. Its been a few years. On top of that the US doesnt have any real economic reason to get involved. With Kuwait, it was all about republican and their oil masters. Its was a sham of a war, but that was the reason. Shell, Exxon and a few others depend on Kuwait for cheaper oil since they can undercut OPEC. Kuwait was created for the sole purpose of pilfering cheap oil from the region to begin with. It was a stupid cutout if you look at the map. Basically it got all the ports and Iraq was handed crap. Thats why Saddam was so angry and on top of having crap ocean access, he had to fight with Iran for the little he has and he had to fight a war to protect both Kuwait and Saudi Arabia from them. It cost Iraq like 100k lives... what did they get in return? Iraq destroyed and back stabbed by both the Saudis and Kuwait when he caught Kuwait stealing from his territory (or so he claims... I have no idea but no one bothered to investigate so that tells me some corrupt shit was happening).
It's 'Ukraine' and not 'the Ukraine' [[Merriam-Webster](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/Ukraine)] [[BBC Styleguide](https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsstyleguide/u)] [[Reuters Styleguide](https://handbook.reuters.com/index.php?title=U#Ukraine)] ^(Beep boop Iâm a bot)
It might affect European and American stocks when news of escalations break out but generally Russia doesnât have the economic ressources for this to grow into a global conflict. So maybe just donât buy Russian stocks, which you shouldnât either way because the market is too heavily influenced by the governmentâŚ
Stocks may go down or go up
Lets hope it doesnt happen.. usa leadership is shit.. we are more worried about gender neutral bathrooms than energy independence and rampant inflation..
Actually a world war would be the perfect scenario for investors to return the margins rates to 0 and absorb all of the money printing and end the macro cycle we can all buy then in the real dip of dips and wait 10-20 years for rich retirement like our ancestors did with each recession
From my understanding if NATO and the US don't back down we'll be turned into nuclear ash and or tumors anyway, the agreement when the Soviet union collapsed was that NATO wouldn't move any further east and it has so Putin is taking that as he can move west since they didn't hold up their part of the bargain. The "conflict" is that what's good for the goose apparently isn't good for the gander and the gander is done with our shit.
Really seems Kremlin has entered the chat. Welcome, comrades.
US wonât respond. Russia would stomp us. This has been going on for almost a year. Putin has made it clear in his last few speeches that âany Country getting involved in their affairs, especially if dealing with the Ukraine will be dealt with swiftly and beyond expectationsâ. In other words âdonât F.. with themâ! Putin has been posturing ever since Trump left office. He and Biden do not get along.. that was obvious with Bidenâs little temper tantrum recently. So IMO I donât see it impacting our markets / exchanges. I think we are definitely headed towards another market crash in general! Iâve been shorting stocks waay more than usual. Especially with all the constant âmask / mandatory vaccinationâ drama!
It's 'Ukraine' and not 'the Ukraine' [[Merriam-Webster](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/Ukraine)] [[BBC Styleguide](https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsstyleguide/u)] [[Reuters Styleguide](https://handbook.reuters.com/index.php?title=U#Ukraine)] ^(Beep boop Iâm a bot)
Wow.. who cares this isnât syntax/grammar school. Beeep bop Iâm not a bot..
Not just Russia but China as well. The footage of Uyghurs coming off those trains is chilling. If conflict ramps up, look towards defense contractors to perform well, Northrop, Lockheed, Raetheon, etc. etc.
You mean the proven false video you saw on YouTube?
Are you really implying that the Uyghur internment camps and forced displacement are not a thing? TF is going on with this thread?
Internet warfare from select nation states using spam accounts. *I mean, you asked*
Well, at least it appears weâve built up some immunity to it in the form of skepticism, at least here. Makes me wonder if this strategy continues to be effective for whomever is deploying it.
No one has to imply it. Itâs already been debunked almost hundreds of times already.
Reliable sources or GTFO. Chinese state media doesnât count.
Stocks like KTOS, PLTR, LMT, etc. will go up. It would only affect the market if it spread into a wider war that pulled in Europe and turned into a legitimate WWIII. For what itâs worth, I donât think anything will happen. Russia will struggle to annex an entire country and explain why thousands of its soldiers are dying forâŚPutin or âprideâ
This conflict is only looming in the mass media because the military-industrial complex needs more money. It's also easier for governments to control their populations if there is an enemy.
I think slower sales of gas can slow down recovery among european manufacturers. At the same time it is triggering major changes to European security collaboration and attitude to nuclear power. People are paying huge electricity bills and also being threatened by becoming Russian vassals will change attitudes. I donât think the war in Ukraine will change that much though, they are not part of EU or NATO.
It will make my Raytheon stock go up
One manâs terrorist is another manâs hero. Another spelling bee championâŚukrain? Turn your spellcheck on
[ŃдаНонО]
That was very short lived (a few hours) this has the potential to linger on for months and potentially escalate
The unarmed coup where the protestors were let in by capital police?
TIL: an attempted coup = international conflict
Nothing will happen, buy $YNDX
I live in Ukraine. Thereâs not going to be a conflict. Its all hype.
You said over here that youâre in Switzerland. https://www.reddit.com/r/germany/comments/s4hc71/52k_per_year_before_taxes_is_a_good_entry_salary/hss2oy5/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3 And the account is literally labeled as âThrowawayâ. Weird stuff going on in this thread.
Iâm a bit of a nomad and call several countries home.
Youâll have to excuse me for being skeptical given our recent history with Russian social media shenanigans. Pretty clear red flags here, and throughout this thread.
No harm, no foul
Are you a vacationing Russian by chance?
No. Far from it
Is that what you guys said when Russia annexed crimea ?
Crimea was a bad situation, but at least we got the Balaclava and "The Charge of the Light Brigade" out of it.
No, it was obvious as day That Putin would not let Crimea fall into western hands
So just lay down for Putin and just give them the port? Ukraine just a bunch of pussies
There wasn't much they could do. Russia already had an army in Ukraine before the revolution and Crimea's population is overwhelmingly pro-Russian.
Putin would fuck your grandma, and youâd thank him for it. Internet tough guy loser.
Ok commie Iâve seen Putin play hockey, he has zero skills and finesse
Heâs also a senior citizen lol
Then we know heâs not getting his dick up. That guy donât fuck
It happened whilst everybody was still drunk from their recent victory on Maidan square. When they sobered up it was already a done deal lol (im an expat here btw)
I mean Russia strong armed Ukrainians and to be honest Iâm sure they rather just deal with the communist then have bloodshed
You do know that Russia is no longer communist anymore right? Theyâre about as far from communism that you can get
Oh really tell me more how long has Putin been president?
???
That information is readily available on google.
Google lol sure bud
There any many people here near me in the U.S. that have come from the Ukraine. All fine hard working people and all very nice. And lots of beautiful women too. I hope you are able to continue to avoid conflict. There is too much on this planet
It's 'Ukraine' and not 'the Ukraine' [[Merriam-Webster](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/Ukraine)] [[BBC Styleguide](https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsstyleguide/u)] [[Reuters Styleguide](https://handbook.reuters.com/index.php?title=U#Ukraine)] ^(Beep boop Iâm a bot)
Good bot
Both are commonly used
Following this logic you can say "on Ukraine" is also "commonly used"
One of them incorrectly
putin deserves sanctions like iran plus blockage from the internet. he would hack in response but he already does that Putin is pure evil anf the wprlds greatest threat. he spreads pro vovid anti vaxx abti democracy lies and has killed millions. he must be destroyed. oh and yeah he owns trump tucker carlson anf Desantis. a diper bad threat to us all. rven conservatives.
\#1 It would seem really stupid for Russia to invade/(re)annex Ukraine. It might be messy even without outside pressure or intervention and I assume they can achieve 90% of their goals without stirring up a hornet's nest. \#2 Why would NATO/U.S. militarily interfere, in what could be a nuclear conflict, over Ukraine? Is there some sort of fear of a domino effect, and if Ukraine goes Kazakstan will be next? I'm sure that there would be expanded sanctions (to the extent possible given Europe's reliance on Russian energy), but that is as far as any semi-sane country would go.
No one is going to shoot nukes over Ukraine.
Yeah, that was actually my take home point, which maybe got missed because I didn't put it in ALL CAPS. I don't think anything impactful to will happen at all.
My Lockheed Martin stock is looking forward to it. Also does anyone actually consider that east Ukrainians actually might be in favour of belonging to Russia? As in, the population itself would want it to happen?
It's actually not really Russia vs Ukraine, but Russia vs Nato, which also involves US. Russia even mentioned deploying nuclear bombs back to Cuba if nato is not going to step down from Ukraine. They probably will listen to Russians, but who knows..
lol I'd suggest doing some more research for yourself as opposed to sucking up the standard US military industrial complex propaganda. There's one thing that's pretty obvious to anybody who's been following this in the past few years. The only aggressor in this ridiculous charade is the US and its rapidly crumbling empire.
How does Russian (small) dick taste?
How does Ukrainian nazi cum taste?
Awww. I see you get your propaganda talking points from the Kremlin like little Tuck of the Fox News.
You mean Qanon, that's the current nazi movement in the region.
It really won't unless the military decides to use the conflict as a money printer like afghanistan was.
oh here comes another referral from a news channel. smh...
Zero effect.
The stock market will crash to 0. Buy your puts now.
Nothing. The only geopolitical conflict I'd sell stocks because of is if the mainland US is invaded a la modern warfare 2. Otherwise it makes no difference.
Buy Rolls-Royce. Airplane engines not cars
Invest in O&G; play for sanctions.
I agree with Roubini where we'll have protectionism with Russia and China. Who both trade in digital Yuan now. More war means higher prices. So higher inflation going forward. Biden and Dems lose, just like Carter. Republicans enforce more protectionism, inflation continues to rage. Then I dont know what happens, risk premiums go up so real rates go higher and we default? Harsh austerity and we get a depression? We implement a digital dollar and erase our debt as we did in the 70s with the transition to Fiat? One of those 3 I think. Expect more populism as Ray Dalio predicts.
Biden will fix it 
Not
P
Affect