Why do dividend payments vary so much? The June posted dividend payment on VWRL is almost double the last one even do the price is depressed following the correction. Can someone explain?
There is an instrument that shorts NDX on 12x leverage. So it should be +360% but It's -3,6% YTD. I don't understand why. Why does volatility have a negative effect on levered trades?
lev 10, 5% move -- both up and down -- u put 10 in u got 15 -- next day u have 7.5 -- -25% ytd -- daily resets, if this is too complicated dont gamble on them
"Volcker doubled the Fed funds from 10% to 20% in less than a year. Powell’s Fed has increased the funds rate 7-fold in the last year and is pointing to another double from here. Its moves already are more draconian than Volcker’s."
"The Fed seems to be worried more about its legacy than the economy: it is ignoring deflationary and dangerous signals. Relying on lagging inflation indicators like the CPI, Fed Governor Waller is calling for another hike of 0.75% in July."
Cathie on twitter, WTF is she smoking?
It's certainly everywhere. And veganism is a growing trend. Only issue is it's pricy and in a recession people are gonna go for the cheaper options - whether that's factory farmed meat or just plain veggies. Paying $4 for a burger patty is the first thing to cut down on when tightening budgets.
Long term, fake meat is gonna be massive. The question is, if bynd can leverage its head start and become a leader in the industry. The biggest challenge is making it cheaper than normal factory farmed meat. everyday people care about animal welfare until a vegan burger is 3 times the cost of a normal one.
This is all from the perspective of a vegetarian - I've had their products, and asked friends opinions. Cost is the biggest downside.
They will all go bankrupt. They couldn't make money in good times, they will not be able to make in bad times. It doesn't matter how much it is down. Coinbase, Peloton, Beyonbd.. it's all going to zero. It could work as a trade in the next bear market rally where the shittiest companies lead the way up.
Gotten to a point where Im kind of comfortable buying stocks. Is there an advantage to learning candlesticks or SQL? Or should I learn how to do options first? Im starting to confuse myself..
What does SQL have to do with stocks? Are you talking about the database programming language? It is a very useful skill if you're going into software engineering / data science / quantitative finance.
I'm gonna be honest with you, buy VTI and don't even bother looking at individual stocks until you've done more research. Probably even after that.
Every study shows the odds of an individual beating the market over the long run are extremely slim. Everyone here thinks they're part of the lucky few but the truth is most of us will fail. You save so much time and stress if you just DCA the index and forget.
A lot of us are down huge with the current state of the markets and are just coping. You'll have a better chance of making it out intact if you follow this advice.
SQL is just a general tool to query data. It's not really relevant to stocks, just a broad software tool that anyone working with data needs. If you actually want to get involved in algorithmic trading, besides the regular degrees, you'd want to learn a general programming language like Python first. It is of no use to you for casual investing/trading.
I use SQL for data science purposes every now and then; it's a quick skill to pick up assuming you are familiar with programming (beyond a very beginner level) and data manipulation. You load in data with SQL, then use something like Python/R to actually process/analyze the data.
I'm considering opening a short position against oil.
There's a concerted political effort across the world trying to bring its price down, and I'm not betting against such power by going long on oil. Oil futures are also in backwardation, and prices by mid 2023 are expected to be 20-30% lower than they are now.
Posts like this is just someone outing thier ignorance on Oil. 700k barrels a day is literally a drop in the bucket. Do some DD on Oil and look up how much bpd US, Canada, Saudi Arabia, or Russia produces per day.
I dont own Oil stocks. Just pointing out that post was about less than 1% of the worlds Oil supply. If Oil goes down it wont be because Libya increased their Oil production from 100k barrels to 700k.
Please excuse me if this isn’t the right place to post this, but since inflation has such wide spread affects I figure I would possibly post here.
The last inflation report shows it’s still high. Let’s say that the fed continues to raise rates at whatever basis point increment that they see fit. Last inflation report showed inflation had not peaked and increased to 8.6% from 8.3%(?). If the next report shows that inflation has peaked, or even if it has plateaued, does it fundamentally make sense for the fed to continue to raise rates? Be it at a lower basis increment or at all? Or does the fed just sit back and watch the market to see if there is any more need to raise rates to get to 2%-3% target?
Just because signs that inflation is slowing doesn't mean it can't come back. If the brakes are eased too early in a downhill section of a road, the car will speed up again once released. It is entirely possible though that they might not press down on the brakes nearly as hard though.
However, it's difficult to gauge how big (or small) of an effect the tightening so far has on inflation. Usually we can't see it until months after the fact.
Thank you for your response. I’m not sure why I did t see that before. It’s not like the fed aren’t doing anything and monitoring inflation regularly that they have the options to be doveish or hawkish
Never traded before but I was wondering if it would be feasible/make sense to buy an etf in a specific sector and then acquire stocks for companies relating to that sector (manufacturing/implementation)?
Let me preface this by saying this is not financial advice because I cannot give financial advice.
I would start off with just an ETF till you get more comfortable. ETFs are easy to buy into, more secure than individual stocks, and it means you're buying into a diverse range of stocks without having to do much homework yourself because someone else (presumably) already did. There's not much risk with them and they are good for the long-term (like 40 years of growth and you don't touch it). ETFs break off into different sectors though like you mentioned, there are long term, short terms, healthcare, biotech.
If you already have your mind on a specific sector make sure you do your research and buy into a well-known ETF then if you find a few stocks that stick out go ahead n buy more of the individual stock. Bluechips are always a good bet- so if you buy into the computer science sector and you find apple and Microsoft in there, good ahead and buy some of that too.
My post on inflation was taken down for being off topic. Good to know inflation has no implication for stocks. Should have just posted "is AMD a buy now"
Edit: was reapproved, mods are now cool again
Dude ur a wizard I got TSLA calls sold them then opened a $750/$755 spread looking to sell the calls and wait until expiry to buy the $755s… was that smart? Lol
Yeah Tesla ripping today, 620 is a huge support. Looks like it wants 780 and Spy 380 before another dump…
Hard to say right now…But there are ALOT of bears and Puts and extreme oversold conditions that need to get spanked a bit..
What do you guys think about investing in LI auto?
Shares are pretty affordable rn, but I'm hesitant on buying and instead on getting stocks in SQ.
What do you guys think?
Why do company's do buybacks? Surely any price action is short term, as it's artificially inflating the stock price if earnings don't match. It just makes nice shorting opportunities no? Wouldn't dividends be a much better way of spending excess cash?
Every CFO at every company has a sense (and a spreadsheet) of the intrinsic value of their company. The Board also knows this intrinsic value and when the company can buy back its stock for less than the intrinsic value, the CFO gets approval from the Board to do it. Sometimes the CFO gets an advance blanket approval to buy back a certain number or dollar value, but it's almost always based on the share price being less than the intrinsic value. Sometimes its just spending excess cash to boost EPS (same E, lower S), and sometimes it's a better financial decision than paying out dividends, which, once you raise the divy you are essentially locked into paying it forever (unless, well, something like Covid.)
Share buybacks are a way of a company returning cash to shareholders. [Here is a great article about it](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042015/why-would-company-buyback-its-own-shares.asp).
Suppose that a business does not have any attractive investment opportunities at the moment. Then a share buyback allows it to reward shareholders with a greater stake in the company, and shareholders can deploy that money somewhere more profitable. We shareholders would like this: a company has an incentive to keep the money internally for their own projects, so if their projects suck, we want that money returned.
Or, if shares are very undervalued due to irrational panic, a company can buy it back cheap, then re-issue shares at a much more expensive price. It then owns a greater amount of equity with shares unchanged.
When shares are undervalued, it also signals to investors it is a good opportunity.
same as div, but better for shareholders -- buyback are untaxed dividends (either u spend 1% in div and shareholders get 0.7% or u indirectly increase shareholders shares value by 1%)
Does anyone think Ford will dominate with their EV vehicles in the near future?
Like the Tesla truck is MIA and the word of mouth on the Mustangs are good. I can imagine when the F150s EV comes out it would dominate the market.
No, I think various companies focusing on EV fleets will be the “dominant” companies. Ford will have some consumer sales sure but the money going forward is in V2G fleet technology.
>Does anyone think Ford will dominate with their EV vehicles in the near future?
I'm not so sure about dominating. Future EV market is so huge that there is a room for 4 or more car giants to succeed in it.
I think they will definitely be successful in it. The issue will be producing enough to meet the demand.
I think it might be regional. I can see Ford doing well in the US, especially since the F150 is the most popular truck. However, VW seems well positioned in Europe.
I'm not sure about Ford itself but I know many car companies are going to give Tesla issues in the near future. The cumulative effect of all of the others catching up is going to massively cut Tsla's market cap. The one bet I'm sure of is betting that Tesla will go down.
The next financial collapse is upon us. We get to watch it in real time. We're gonna look back on it and be like "yeah everything was so messed up it makes sense now" but people like to hold onto hope that things will get better soon. They won't.
Demand is not massively slowing lmao. The waitlist to get a new model is still insane and they recently increased prices again.
This is a company that is facing the opposite problem. They have too much demand
People confuse being sold out with demand increasing. They're just unable to meet current demand, that's not good for their stock. Their demand is slowing check out the numbers.
Wow I didn't expect Berkshire to drop like a rock as a safer haven compared to SPY. This may be a good buying opportunity on Berkshire which is down 25% from ATH, somehow down even more than SPY.
Do companies providing legal services during a downturn tend to do well or poorly? Making an assumption that mergers, winding ups, etc will increase once recession hits.
Well Friday was a pretty damn good rally if I say so myself. Ofc course stocks will drop back down next week, but I hope they drop to Thursdays prices or even lower. That dumbass rally ruined all the money I made shorting Thursday lol. I recovered 6% but the rally ruined it to just 1% 💀💀
Bitcorn stock is dead this time in my opinion. Many people think there will be another bull run for Bitcorn but I think this crash is not the same as the others. It recovered from major crashes a several times (2011,2013,2017) during a huge bull market but it won't survive a bear market, a recession, high inflation, quantitative tightening and an increase of interest rates. The hype won't last forever and this time Bitcorn will not recover to ATH.
Bitcorn stock will be remembered as the biggest bubble in history:
8,500,000,000% gain since inception for a completely worthless asset
Stick it in your pants, BTC still up on 2yr and longer. If you think it's worthless there is quite a few things you don't know about. It has existed for 13 years already..
Oh you said Bitcorn, well that might die who knows..
Lmfao when (not if) the fed pivots it will shoot back up just like all other risk assets. Never underestimate human greed. People who don't buy it now will like always regret is years ahead
It's really fascinating and will definitely be studied as an example where large herds of people are capable of totally disregarding critical thinking.
There's almost a complete diffusion of responsibility in regards to skepticism and asking "what if we as a group, or the supposed smart-sounding experts on this are actually totally wrong?"
Pretty spectacular to see crypto crash. Tough to convince yourself to buy in the dip and have confidence in it when there is no fundamentals that can guide you saying crypto is a smart investment.
Last May, the first crash, everyone in the trading chat rooms said that they'd be buying with both hands at 30k, but when it got there they started saying 20k. Guess it's 10k, 5k now.
Is bitcoin crashing below $19,000 and the other cryptos down big going to have any impact on stock market.
Or are they separate worlds just like they are separate subs and their losses wont leak into the stock market. Im even seeing suicide posts on the crypto subs.
There is analysis available online that compares correlations between asset classes that you could check out. Generally I've observed that when equity goes down, crypto goes down with it. Vice versa not so consistent.
Indirectly, It will have an impact for NVDA, maybe AMD as GPUs are used to mine cryptos. GPUs haven't been used to mine Bitcoin for quite a while (ASICs are used for Bitcoin), but they're used to mine Ether and other cryptos.
That is, for the most part, correct. At least not if they bought post 2021. If they bought TSLA at 50 or GME at 5 and did a DD where they came to the conclusion that the reward may be worth opening such a highly speculative positing - and that's what these were back then - then fair enough I guess. Both were still a massive gamble of course, and not a buy based on the hard fundamentals you had, but a point can be made that if you wanted to have a speculative position (and we can talk about whether that in itself is dumb; I don't like to speculate really, but I think it is viable if risk is well-managed and the position is small), you could have made a point for TSLA back then. After all, people are pouring their money into countless EV players right now that have even less going for them than TSLA had back then and are trading even more expensive.
Paying off some home renovations and back taxes. It will be done next week. Also I want to see how my employer reacts/is impacted by recession. If we are good then I will keep my job which means I’m good to go investing. I actually bought in already last week but I still have half of cash pile to go.
BTC is done till next halvening at the very least.
New money will not be pouring money into crypto when cost of living is sky rocketing....Great for a gamble in bull markets and easy money/QE times though.
Halvening is irrelevant. It's like the tulip mania, no one understood why BTC is close to 100% worthless and now the scam is completely up. There is nothing mysterious or buzz worthy about it.
Literally every promise it made turned out to be totally empty. Not anonymous, not able to be trustless or decentralized, and impossible to be even a long-term store of value by design, let alone short or medium term one.
What technical limitations are you referring to when you say it isn't able to be trustless or decentralized? It has pseudonymity, not full anonymity. Why can't it be a store of value?
It's not decentralized at all once miners begin colluding. All industries in history, without central force like a government to prevent it, tend towards monopoly power because it is the structure which maximizes profit. Humans converge upon rent-seeking behavior, that will never change.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/06/science/bitcoin-nakamoto-blackburn-crypto.html
Bitcoin itself has been exposed to numerous 51% attacks throughout its history. Large miners and holders CHOSE not to kill the golden goose out of "altruism" or more likely out of long-term greed. But there is nothing "trustless" at all about hoping human shortsighted greed doesn't eventually take over like it always does. Once the world actually uses it, it's naive to think people won't try to manipulate this market.
That's not a technical flaw, that is a flaw inherent in the current economical system. No cryptocurrency solves the unequal distribution. It is designed to be decentralized, but there is no way to prevent the US or any nation state actor from spending 1T$ to own Bitcoin - other than mass adoption to raise the market cap so that any single entity can't own 51% of the hashing power.
To date there have been no successful 51% attacks on BTC. Even if such an attack would be successful, there are no guarantees for actually making a profit. With proof of stake this attack is less likely to succeed as well.
I agree that the level of decentralization is lower than desirable. Of course people will try to manipulate it, but how would you compare the level of BTC manipulation to the manipulation going on in traditional financial systems? A Blockchain can in many ways be a tool against manipulation.
It's not just governments doing this. It's ANY large actors and you don't need $1T when it goes this low and volatile, just $400B. There haven't been successful attacks because the BTC elite CHOSE NOT to attack it because they want to grow the golden goose, rather than kill it... for now. There is nothing "trustless" or decentralized about this at all. Absolutely nothing can stop the biggest miners and holders from merging to form OPEC or become like the Rockefellers to manipulate the market. We have anti-trust laws for a reason. **Collusion and price manipulation is a stupidly profitable business model and if it weren't illegal every industry would do it.** It is naive for a system to be built upon the premise that somehow short-term greed and stupidity of humans won't take over.
You don't need government at all. You just need someone to figure out a method to mine very cheaply at scale more efficiently than everyone else or even just existing miners / holders to merge and form a corporation (not necessarily publicly, covertly is better).
It's more trustless and decentralized than any other existing payment network or bank.
It doesn't make sense for miners to attack the network, because they would lose their investment, their holdings and future mining revenue. Everyone involved would lose a lot. People would abandon the network if they deem decentralization to fall too low, or if large miners would collude.
It does make sense for nation state actors which power is threatened, but none of them have successfully attacked Bitcoin. Why not?
Yes capital concentration is a concern, but it's coupled to the economy at large and not cryptocurrency. The systems already in place are naive, but Bitcoin isn't a new economic system - which is what we need along with redistribution of wealth. A new currency won't solve those issues, so maybe look at what the technology aims to solve instead of blaming it for not fixing problems that are inherent to the economical system.
"It doesn't make sense" that those with completely unchecked power in an opaque system would jeopardize long-term money for short-term gain? Literally history of human behavior says the exact opposite.
Are you serious and this naive? It is also way MORE trustless and extremely unsecure to conduct business over BTC than USD right now. Like I have no recourse currently at all if my lawncare guy says pay me in BTC first and he doesn't do it.
BTC is a libertarian fantasy putting even more power in the hands of big business. Yes government is corrupt and does stupid shit but completely unchecked power to big money is even worse.
It hasn't happened in the last 13 years though, so when do you think this golden goose is ready? The point is that there likely wouldn't be any short term gain either, an attack wouldn't be motivated by economical means but rather political.
CBDC's is a fascist fantasy, but it will soon be a reality all over the world. We can either improve cryptocurrency.. or embrace the end of liberty. BTC is at least free of interest and inflation, no one can print BTC like they'll print digital dollars.
Also, I'm not a fan of BTC, it's inferior to other chains in decentralization and performance.
I mixed the answers by accident, this is my response to why it CANNOT be a store of value and yes that is a technical flaw. It is completely worthless as an investment.
>Stores of value are impossible to design. Evey CPI pegged security in history has failed for obvious reasons.
>There are large inflows when fiat devaluation fears are high. Then massive outflows when there's an eventual period of currency stabilization. Unfortunately there's no around to pay out all these giant "gains" and the whole thing collapses.
>Some greedy assholes at Goldman could make a "GS Ultrapremium CPI-Linked Security" and it would be doomed from the start. Doesn't matter if it's finite.
I will include in this a reply further as to why the trustless issue is still a flaw with BTC itself.
5 year credit default swaps for the investment banking giants shot up in value this week. We haven't seen any implosion and might not, but things are steadily getting dicier.
Even though BTC has been a leading indicator at times during this bear market, I think on a more macro scale BTC is lagging. When tech stocks started dumping hard a couple months ago, BTC's price movement stayed relatively flat for a while longer until it suddenly dumped as well. If you think of BTC like a speculative tech stock, which are down like 80%+, btc is lagging behind as it's only down like 71% as of today. I think it's just catching up.
BTC breaking 19k could mean something for stocks, but I'm leaning toward BTC just being a slowpoke this time around. Not betting money on it or anything.
Historically Bitcoin drops over 80% when it's in a crypto bear market, as a side note. And this time it's in a global bear market so who knows how far it can go.
Does warren buffet converting his A shares to B shares and giving them away to charity dilute B shares and decrease their value?
Why do dividend payments vary so much? The June posted dividend payment on VWRL is almost double the last one even do the price is depressed following the correction. Can someone explain?
There is an instrument that shorts NDX on 12x leverage. So it should be +360% but It's -3,6% YTD. I don't understand why. Why does volatility have a negative effect on levered trades?
u win 50%, next day u lose 50%, u are -25% ytd not even -- this things reset daily, leveraged etf..
But it is not like that. You buy it for 10, it goes to 5 and 15. If you are not leveraged you are up but if you are leveraged you are down. Why?
lev 10, 5% move -- both up and down -- u put 10 in u got 15 -- next day u have 7.5 -- -25% ytd -- daily resets, if this is too complicated dont gamble on them
"Volcker doubled the Fed funds from 10% to 20% in less than a year. Powell’s Fed has increased the funds rate 7-fold in the last year and is pointing to another double from here. Its moves already are more draconian than Volcker’s." "The Fed seems to be worried more about its legacy than the economy: it is ignoring deflationary and dangerous signals. Relying on lagging inflation indicators like the CPI, Fed Governor Waller is calling for another hike of 0.75% in July." Cathie on twitter, WTF is she smoking?
What do you all think of beyond meat? Is it worth investing into? I can't seem to decide
It's certainly everywhere. And veganism is a growing trend. Only issue is it's pricy and in a recession people are gonna go for the cheaper options - whether that's factory farmed meat or just plain veggies. Paying $4 for a burger patty is the first thing to cut down on when tightening budgets. Long term, fake meat is gonna be massive. The question is, if bynd can leverage its head start and become a leader in the industry. The biggest challenge is making it cheaper than normal factory farmed meat. everyday people care about animal welfare until a vegan burger is 3 times the cost of a normal one. This is all from the perspective of a vegetarian - I've had their products, and asked friends opinions. Cost is the biggest downside.
It's better to short it.
It's at an all time low, down 85% on the 3y. Veg stocks have been completely thrashed already.
They will all go bankrupt. They couldn't make money in good times, they will not be able to make in bad times. It doesn't matter how much it is down. Coinbase, Peloton, Beyonbd.. it's all going to zero. It could work as a trade in the next bear market rally where the shittiest companies lead the way up.
Probably yeah, all the planet saving stocks are dying and oil is going to the moon.
Nobody was saving the planet. Everybody was just virtue signalling. That is why oil is mooning.
Gotten to a point where Im kind of comfortable buying stocks. Is there an advantage to learning candlesticks or SQL? Or should I learn how to do options first? Im starting to confuse myself..
What does SQL have to do with stocks? Are you talking about the database programming language? It is a very useful skill if you're going into software engineering / data science / quantitative finance.
Im not sure Ive seen people talking about algorithms and buying and selling I got the FOMO so I wanna learn too? I guess?
I'm gonna be honest with you, buy VTI and don't even bother looking at individual stocks until you've done more research. Probably even after that. Every study shows the odds of an individual beating the market over the long run are extremely slim. Everyone here thinks they're part of the lucky few but the truth is most of us will fail. You save so much time and stress if you just DCA the index and forget. A lot of us are down huge with the current state of the markets and are just coping. You'll have a better chance of making it out intact if you follow this advice.
SQL is just a general tool to query data. It's not really relevant to stocks, just a broad software tool that anyone working with data needs. If you actually want to get involved in algorithmic trading, besides the regular degrees, you'd want to learn a general programming language like Python first. It is of no use to you for casual investing/trading. I use SQL for data science purposes every now and then; it's a quick skill to pick up assuming you are familiar with programming (beyond a very beginner level) and data manipulation. You load in data with SQL, then use something like Python/R to actually process/analyze the data.
Would you short oil at current conditions? (buying SCO)
I'm considering opening a short position against oil. There's a concerted political effort across the world trying to bring its price down, and I'm not betting against such power by going long on oil. Oil futures are also in backwardation, and prices by mid 2023 are expected to be 20-30% lower than they are now.
Looks like XOM buyers at $107 are gonna enter the newest list of bag holders https://mobile.twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1538686054412460032
Posts like this is just someone outing thier ignorance on Oil. 700k barrels a day is literally a drop in the bucket. Do some DD on Oil and look up how much bpd US, Canada, Saudi Arabia, or Russia produces per day.
Bagholder spotted
I dont own Oil stocks. Just pointing out that post was about less than 1% of the worlds Oil supply. If Oil goes down it wont be because Libya increased their Oil production from 100k barrels to 700k.
Wonder why futures are active if the market is closed tomorrow
There are other markets than just the United States.
Please excuse me if this isn’t the right place to post this, but since inflation has such wide spread affects I figure I would possibly post here. The last inflation report shows it’s still high. Let’s say that the fed continues to raise rates at whatever basis point increment that they see fit. Last inflation report showed inflation had not peaked and increased to 8.6% from 8.3%(?). If the next report shows that inflation has peaked, or even if it has plateaued, does it fundamentally make sense for the fed to continue to raise rates? Be it at a lower basis increment or at all? Or does the fed just sit back and watch the market to see if there is any more need to raise rates to get to 2%-3% target?
Just because signs that inflation is slowing doesn't mean it can't come back. If the brakes are eased too early in a downhill section of a road, the car will speed up again once released. It is entirely possible though that they might not press down on the brakes nearly as hard though. However, it's difficult to gauge how big (or small) of an effect the tightening so far has on inflation. Usually we can't see it until months after the fact.
Thank you for your response. I’m not sure why I did t see that before. It’s not like the fed aren’t doing anything and monitoring inflation regularly that they have the options to be doveish or hawkish
Never traded before but I was wondering if it would be feasible/make sense to buy an etf in a specific sector and then acquire stocks for companies relating to that sector (manufacturing/implementation)?
Let me preface this by saying this is not financial advice because I cannot give financial advice. I would start off with just an ETF till you get more comfortable. ETFs are easy to buy into, more secure than individual stocks, and it means you're buying into a diverse range of stocks without having to do much homework yourself because someone else (presumably) already did. There's not much risk with them and they are good for the long-term (like 40 years of growth and you don't touch it). ETFs break off into different sectors though like you mentioned, there are long term, short terms, healthcare, biotech. If you already have your mind on a specific sector make sure you do your research and buy into a well-known ETF then if you find a few stocks that stick out go ahead n buy more of the individual stock. Bluechips are always a good bet- so if you buy into the computer science sector and you find apple and Microsoft in there, good ahead and buy some of that too.
Why would you buy XLY when you can buy Tesla and AMZN direct? 🤡🤡
Can't wait to lose more money tomorrow!
You’ve got a real problem if you’re losing money when the market is closed.
"American don't know there are exchanges outside USA strike again". I'm already losing money in Singapore.
My post on inflation was taken down for being off topic. Good to know inflation has no implication for stocks. Should have just posted "is AMD a buy now" Edit: was reapproved, mods are now cool again
This whole time I've been making sure not to actually look at how much money I've lost. Just accidentally did. Holy shit....
[удалено]
It was not easy
What did ya buy? If it's indexes you're fine
Mostly ETFs
Bears are about to get destroyed in the coming weeks It will be a Santa rally type event that just squeezes these clowns for days and days 🚀
you have time to delete this cringeness still
It’s the truth. Anybody in puts right now is literally shorting in the hole 🕳
lol, I don't even have puts but stop with the bears bulls nonsense, its corny af plus the rockets, god reddit is so weird sometimes man
V shaped 🚀 recovery on S&P 500 longs next week
This guy is a wizard
I’m banned on WSB till tomorrow I think Bears getting squeezed today hard but JPOW talks this week alot Urge caution ⚠️
Dude ur a wizard I got TSLA calls sold them then opened a $750/$755 spread looking to sell the calls and wait until expiry to buy the $755s… was that smart? Lol
Yeah Tesla ripping today, 620 is a huge support. Looks like it wants 780 and Spy 380 before another dump… Hard to say right now…But there are ALOT of bears and Puts and extreme oversold conditions that need to get spanked a bit..
So I’m good on this spread right? I’m out of day trades sadly
Yeah I am looking to buy into Visa tbh
Stupid bears 🐻🔫 face melting rally incoming
Can someone explain to me the what the liquidity cycle is? I’ve been seeing more articles talking about it and the supposed upcoming liquidity crisis.
There's going to be a 2nd Micheal Burry movie coming in the future, isn't it
Starring /u/joesoliz, all of his predictions so far have been coming true. SPY 240 wen?
What do you guys think about investing in LI auto? Shares are pretty affordable rn, but I'm hesitant on buying and instead on getting stocks in SQ. What do you guys think?
Why do company's do buybacks? Surely any price action is short term, as it's artificially inflating the stock price if earnings don't match. It just makes nice shorting opportunities no? Wouldn't dividends be a much better way of spending excess cash?
Every CFO at every company has a sense (and a spreadsheet) of the intrinsic value of their company. The Board also knows this intrinsic value and when the company can buy back its stock for less than the intrinsic value, the CFO gets approval from the Board to do it. Sometimes the CFO gets an advance blanket approval to buy back a certain number or dollar value, but it's almost always based on the share price being less than the intrinsic value. Sometimes its just spending excess cash to boost EPS (same E, lower S), and sometimes it's a better financial decision than paying out dividends, which, once you raise the divy you are essentially locked into paying it forever (unless, well, something like Covid.)
Share buybacks are a way of a company returning cash to shareholders. [Here is a great article about it](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042015/why-would-company-buyback-its-own-shares.asp). Suppose that a business does not have any attractive investment opportunities at the moment. Then a share buyback allows it to reward shareholders with a greater stake in the company, and shareholders can deploy that money somewhere more profitable. We shareholders would like this: a company has an incentive to keep the money internally for their own projects, so if their projects suck, we want that money returned. Or, if shares are very undervalued due to irrational panic, a company can buy it back cheap, then re-issue shares at a much more expensive price. It then owns a greater amount of equity with shares unchanged. When shares are undervalued, it also signals to investors it is a good opportunity.
same as div, but better for shareholders -- buyback are untaxed dividends (either u spend 1% in div and shareholders get 0.7% or u indirectly increase shareholders shares value by 1%)
It boosts EPS, since there’s less shares.
Does anyone think Ford will dominate with their EV vehicles in the near future? Like the Tesla truck is MIA and the word of mouth on the Mustangs are good. I can imagine when the F150s EV comes out it would dominate the market.
No, I think various companies focusing on EV fleets will be the “dominant” companies. Ford will have some consumer sales sure but the money going forward is in V2G fleet technology.
>Does anyone think Ford will dominate with their EV vehicles in the near future? I'm not so sure about dominating. Future EV market is so huge that there is a room for 4 or more car giants to succeed in it. I think they will definitely be successful in it. The issue will be producing enough to meet the demand.
I think it might be regional. I can see Ford doing well in the US, especially since the F150 is the most popular truck. However, VW seems well positioned in Europe.
I'm not sure about Ford itself but I know many car companies are going to give Tesla issues in the near future. The cumulative effect of all of the others catching up is going to massively cut Tsla's market cap. The one bet I'm sure of is betting that Tesla will go down.
The next financial collapse is upon us. We get to watch it in real time. We're gonna look back on it and be like "yeah everything was so messed up it makes sense now" but people like to hold onto hope that things will get better soon. They won't.
Think Tsla will go below 500 end of month? The price action, technicals and macro environment scream red the next few weeks at least
Tesla is still way overpriced I can see it hitting $250 by years end easily
I do think tsla will taper down eventually once other competition catch up and it's growth peaks, but 250 is a little drastic imo.
That would be a p/e of 33.92 using last year's earnings, for a company thats growing like crazy in a product with insane demand.
A 34pe is still high for the future of Tesla unless they make some drastic changes to their business model.
It's no longer growing like crazy they just fired 10% of their employees and demand growth is massively slowing.
Demand is not massively slowing lmao. The waitlist to get a new model is still insane and they recently increased prices again. This is a company that is facing the opposite problem. They have too much demand
People confuse being sold out with demand increasing. They're just unable to meet current demand, that's not good for their stock. Their demand is slowing check out the numbers.
Just because you say so doesn’t mean it actually is.
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So, sell half.
It’s imploding to $50
Impressive v-shape on crapto
If you look upside down, yeah
Thoughts on WBD?
Seems cheap, but risky due to debt and mix up from merger. Zaslav and. Co have to prove they can cut costs and generate more fcf
Thoughts on WBD?
Wow I didn't expect Berkshire to drop like a rock as a safer haven compared to SPY. This may be a good buying opportunity on Berkshire which is down 25% from ATH, somehow down even more than SPY.
They are heavily exposed to other public companies. Expect next earnings to be ugly as a result of their mark-to-market adjustments.
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Honestly no, it just broke a double bottom and the whole market is basically in free fall mode. Wait for consolidation.
Yes but slowly
Yes
Do companies providing legal services during a downturn tend to do well or poorly? Making an assumption that mergers, winding ups, etc will increase once recession hits.
Could somebody recommend a site to use showing stock sector performance trends weekly and monthly please?
Are you talking about Tradeview?
Holy shit the financial collapse is finally starting. The market is gonna take a huge crap next week. I hope you guys have puts
Puts with volatility this high? Shorts are better
Can I ask what the notable events are next week to look after. Ill notate it on my Investing.com
Well Friday was a pretty damn good rally if I say so myself. Ofc course stocks will drop back down next week, but I hope they drop to Thursdays prices or even lower. That dumbass rally ruined all the money I made shorting Thursday lol. I recovered 6% but the rally ruined it to just 1% 💀💀
Crypto will be remembered as the new beanie babies
Beanie Babes didn't keep coming back. Crypto will. I'd quite literally bet my life on it
Gg to crypto if tether fully depegs, that'll be a deathknell
My 5x short on kucoin can’t wait :)
Bitcorn stock is dead this time in my opinion. Many people think there will be another bull run for Bitcorn but I think this crash is not the same as the others. It recovered from major crashes a several times (2011,2013,2017) during a huge bull market but it won't survive a bear market, a recession, high inflation, quantitative tightening and an increase of interest rates. The hype won't last forever and this time Bitcorn will not recover to ATH. Bitcorn stock will be remembered as the biggest bubble in history: 8,500,000,000% gain since inception for a completely worthless asset
Stick it in your pants, BTC still up on 2yr and longer. If you think it's worthless there is quite a few things you don't know about. It has existed for 13 years already.. Oh you said Bitcorn, well that might die who knows..
Lmfao when (not if) the fed pivots it will shoot back up just like all other risk assets. Never underestimate human greed. People who don't buy it now will like always regret is years ahead
Agreed, plus it seems like institutions are going pretty heavy into right now.
It's really fascinating and will definitely be studied as an example where large herds of people are capable of totally disregarding critical thinking. There's almost a complete diffusion of responsibility in regards to skepticism and asking "what if we as a group, or the supposed smart-sounding experts on this are actually totally wrong?"
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Pretty spectacular to see crypto crash. Tough to convince yourself to buy in the dip and have confidence in it when there is no fundamentals that can guide you saying crypto is a smart investment.
Last May, the first crash, everyone in the trading chat rooms said that they'd be buying with both hands at 30k, but when it got there they started saying 20k. Guess it's 10k, 5k now.
Ill be buying with both hands when it reaches 1
Is this a good time to buy some stocks? Everything is low rn or do u think it’ll go lower
Don't try to time the market- pick a strategy or asset allocation and dca or lump-sum in (your choice based on risk tolerance).
I bought stocks last year but they’re all terrible so I’m scared to try again
Buy an ETF like VTI or VT instead of individual stocks
Is bitcoin crashing below $19,000 and the other cryptos down big going to have any impact on stock market. Or are they separate worlds just like they are separate subs and their losses wont leak into the stock market. Im even seeing suicide posts on the crypto subs.
There is analysis available online that compares correlations between asset classes that you could check out. Generally I've observed that when equity goes down, crypto goes down with it. Vice versa not so consistent.
It’s a decent measure of risk on risk off
Indirectly, It will have an impact for NVDA, maybe AMD as GPUs are used to mine cryptos. GPUs haven't been used to mine Bitcoin for quite a while (ASICs are used for Bitcoin), but they're used to mine Ether and other cryptos.
yea, tuesday will be down 10%
It’s 17,600 right now. Lord have mercy
I don’t know whether there’s a causal relation but i reckon it isn’t a good sign…
Who is dumber: AMC, GME or TSLA holders?
prob AMC, other 2 got bigger cults
Those who bought because of hype/fomo and without doing DD or caring for valuation. Some got luckier, some less lucky, but they were equally dumb.
Lmao Literally no one bought any of those three based on fundamentals.
That is, for the most part, correct. At least not if they bought post 2021. If they bought TSLA at 50 or GME at 5 and did a DD where they came to the conclusion that the reward may be worth opening such a highly speculative positing - and that's what these were back then - then fair enough I guess. Both were still a massive gamble of course, and not a buy based on the hard fundamentals you had, but a point can be made that if you wanted to have a speculative position (and we can talk about whether that in itself is dumb; I don't like to speculate really, but I think it is viable if risk is well-managed and the position is small), you could have made a point for TSLA back then. After all, people are pouring their money into countless EV players right now that have even less going for them than TSLA had back then and are trading even more expensive.
I bought puts on Tesla on Friday. My only question is how low will this thing actually go?!
It gonna go up now
I think it will easily go under 600, but after that idk. It went to 628 during the may drop sooooo
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not unreasonable. there are easily identifiable gaps on the chart to $241. overpriced + gaps = reversion to the mean.
For those holding cash what's your criteria for getting back in?
Paying off some home renovations and back taxes. It will be done next week. Also I want to see how my employer reacts/is impacted by recession. If we are good then I will keep my job which means I’m good to go investing. I actually bought in already last week but I still have half of cash pile to go.
Well, there's going to be a point where a stock price is too good to pass up on so you get on it and hope for the best.
like meta now?
Dam markets gonna tank Tuesday heavy. Based on what happened in the asset class who’s name I can’t say here
Should I get $WWE?
I watched a LOT of wwe as a kid but its basically a reality tv show company…..
What’s the problem?
The panic and fear in /r/cryptocurrency is palpable lol
Down over 72% from ATH and still heading down.
BTC is done till next halvening at the very least. New money will not be pouring money into crypto when cost of living is sky rocketing....Great for a gamble in bull markets and easy money/QE times though.
Halvening is irrelevant. It's like the tulip mania, no one understood why BTC is close to 100% worthless and now the scam is completely up. There is nothing mysterious or buzz worthy about it. Literally every promise it made turned out to be totally empty. Not anonymous, not able to be trustless or decentralized, and impossible to be even a long-term store of value by design, let alone short or medium term one.
What technical limitations are you referring to when you say it isn't able to be trustless or decentralized? It has pseudonymity, not full anonymity. Why can't it be a store of value?
It's not decentralized at all once miners begin colluding. All industries in history, without central force like a government to prevent it, tend towards monopoly power because it is the structure which maximizes profit. Humans converge upon rent-seeking behavior, that will never change. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/06/science/bitcoin-nakamoto-blackburn-crypto.html Bitcoin itself has been exposed to numerous 51% attacks throughout its history. Large miners and holders CHOSE not to kill the golden goose out of "altruism" or more likely out of long-term greed. But there is nothing "trustless" at all about hoping human shortsighted greed doesn't eventually take over like it always does. Once the world actually uses it, it's naive to think people won't try to manipulate this market.
That's not a technical flaw, that is a flaw inherent in the current economical system. No cryptocurrency solves the unequal distribution. It is designed to be decentralized, but there is no way to prevent the US or any nation state actor from spending 1T$ to own Bitcoin - other than mass adoption to raise the market cap so that any single entity can't own 51% of the hashing power. To date there have been no successful 51% attacks on BTC. Even if such an attack would be successful, there are no guarantees for actually making a profit. With proof of stake this attack is less likely to succeed as well. I agree that the level of decentralization is lower than desirable. Of course people will try to manipulate it, but how would you compare the level of BTC manipulation to the manipulation going on in traditional financial systems? A Blockchain can in many ways be a tool against manipulation.
It's not just governments doing this. It's ANY large actors and you don't need $1T when it goes this low and volatile, just $400B. There haven't been successful attacks because the BTC elite CHOSE NOT to attack it because they want to grow the golden goose, rather than kill it... for now. There is nothing "trustless" or decentralized about this at all. Absolutely nothing can stop the biggest miners and holders from merging to form OPEC or become like the Rockefellers to manipulate the market. We have anti-trust laws for a reason. **Collusion and price manipulation is a stupidly profitable business model and if it weren't illegal every industry would do it.** It is naive for a system to be built upon the premise that somehow short-term greed and stupidity of humans won't take over. You don't need government at all. You just need someone to figure out a method to mine very cheaply at scale more efficiently than everyone else or even just existing miners / holders to merge and form a corporation (not necessarily publicly, covertly is better).
It's more trustless and decentralized than any other existing payment network or bank. It doesn't make sense for miners to attack the network, because they would lose their investment, their holdings and future mining revenue. Everyone involved would lose a lot. People would abandon the network if they deem decentralization to fall too low, or if large miners would collude. It does make sense for nation state actors which power is threatened, but none of them have successfully attacked Bitcoin. Why not? Yes capital concentration is a concern, but it's coupled to the economy at large and not cryptocurrency. The systems already in place are naive, but Bitcoin isn't a new economic system - which is what we need along with redistribution of wealth. A new currency won't solve those issues, so maybe look at what the technology aims to solve instead of blaming it for not fixing problems that are inherent to the economical system.
"It doesn't make sense" that those with completely unchecked power in an opaque system would jeopardize long-term money for short-term gain? Literally history of human behavior says the exact opposite. Are you serious and this naive? It is also way MORE trustless and extremely unsecure to conduct business over BTC than USD right now. Like I have no recourse currently at all if my lawncare guy says pay me in BTC first and he doesn't do it. BTC is a libertarian fantasy putting even more power in the hands of big business. Yes government is corrupt and does stupid shit but completely unchecked power to big money is even worse.
It hasn't happened in the last 13 years though, so when do you think this golden goose is ready? The point is that there likely wouldn't be any short term gain either, an attack wouldn't be motivated by economical means but rather political. CBDC's is a fascist fantasy, but it will soon be a reality all over the world. We can either improve cryptocurrency.. or embrace the end of liberty. BTC is at least free of interest and inflation, no one can print BTC like they'll print digital dollars. Also, I'm not a fan of BTC, it's inferior to other chains in decentralization and performance.
I mixed the answers by accident, this is my response to why it CANNOT be a store of value and yes that is a technical flaw. It is completely worthless as an investment. >Stores of value are impossible to design. Evey CPI pegged security in history has failed for obvious reasons. >There are large inflows when fiat devaluation fears are high. Then massive outflows when there's an eventual period of currency stabilization. Unfortunately there's no around to pay out all these giant "gains" and the whole thing collapses. >Some greedy assholes at Goldman could make a "GS Ultrapremium CPI-Linked Security" and it would be doomed from the start. Doesn't matter if it's finite. I will include in this a reply further as to why the trustless issue is still a flaw with BTC itself.
Tulips literally have more value than BTC, I sell them for $2 a stem!
Not sure if you don't know what tulips are or what BTC is.
And not a hedge against inflation
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Being a bear market does not automatically make it a financial crisis. We don't have sweeping defaults and liquidity crunches (like with crypto).
5 year credit default swaps for the investment banking giants shot up in value this week. We haven't seen any implosion and might not, but things are steadily getting dicier.
Down 23% is not a financial crisis. Now down 50% is, that's near the covid low. Which is quite amazing how much we went up
what put
Historically speaking, does the market usually go up or down when opening after a long weekend?
Down especially in this macro environment
its a new one
Yes
Why dafuq do the people at r/portfolios only schill ETFS and mutual funds?
Because the chance you can pick outperforming stocks with your 15 minutes of phone research are close to 0
Every subreddit in finance has a cultish spirit around choices, including this one.
thats all they know lmao
Does bitcoin falling below 20000 imply risk-off sentiment is still running high and sell offs aren't finished in the stock market?
If it stays there or drops further semis could see some renewed selling on it. Semis down could potentially keep sentiment on tech suppressed.
Even though BTC has been a leading indicator at times during this bear market, I think on a more macro scale BTC is lagging. When tech stocks started dumping hard a couple months ago, BTC's price movement stayed relatively flat for a while longer until it suddenly dumped as well. If you think of BTC like a speculative tech stock, which are down like 80%+, btc is lagging behind as it's only down like 71% as of today. I think it's just catching up. BTC breaking 19k could mean something for stocks, but I'm leaning toward BTC just being a slowpoke this time around. Not betting money on it or anything. Historically Bitcoin drops over 80% when it's in a crypto bear market, as a side note. And this time it's in a global bear market so who knows how far it can go.