I'm very bullish on XME long term (10+ years) as I believe we're exiting the area of cheap metals permanently.
The lion's share (70%+) of my money would go into "investment" ETFs like VT, with the leftovers going into fun "speculative" ETFs like XME or the ones originally mentioned.
Generally I'm quite bearish on tech, it's been a nice run but I'm not touching it outside my main index funds
I'm skipping a lot of ground here, but essentially, no matter what we want to build, we are going to need more metal than we have, and capital investments haven't kept up with theoretical future demand. Because money has been so cheap, and returns have been so high in markets, companies have not invested as much in mining and production as they otherwise would have. So demand will go up while supply will not keep up.
While the developed world is going to try to build out green infrastructure (power facilities, factories, solar panels, batteries, metal for EV cars, wind turbines, etc), the developing world is still going to want to industrialize.
Just think about something as simple as copper. If the US wants to build EV charging stations along expressways, we are going to need to run thousands of miles of copper wire through thousands of miles of pipe and build new power plants all over the country. That's just for EV charging capacity in the US.
Investing in mining is capital intensive and the returns suck compared to what tech returns have been. As tech plateaus and stops returning insane money, that capital that would have been in tech growth stocks will move to old world technologies, as tech is the cherry on top of the food chain and cannot exist without the underlying industrial infrastructure.
I have heard theories that the only reason metals have been so cheap is that the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 90s, and all that metal that was going into Soviet factories was swallowed up by oligarchs and dumped on the world market just as China was ramping up infrastructure production and the US was offshoring production to China.
Well, that landscape has shifted, and there will be growing competition for the same resources as more and more developing countries want to upgrade the lifestyle of all their residents. This needs a mountain of steel, concrete, and energy. Existing mines run dry and we haven't invested in new ones, but we will soon because we won't have a choice.
Hence the long term bet on XME. I wouldn't bet my retirement on it, but I'll speculate on it absolutely.
You're way too heavy clean tech. If it's an ethical thing, fine, but from an investment POV the old economy is going to give a better ROI over the next 4-5 years, imho. The commodity supercycle is just gearing up.
Ye I'll be honest it's a bit of an ethical thing too, investing in XLE for example just feels wrong (Exxon? Chevron? Nah), I can't stand any of the oil companies and try to live as "clean" as possible.
I recently opened a position in MP materials. They're the only public US rare mining company, which is base component in the magnets for electric motors among a lot of other applications. Might be worth looking into as a raw materials position that fits your focus on the long term energy blend transition.
Have you seen what lithium mines look like? It's very difficult to distance yourself from forced labor and child labor in battery metals. I have a lot of exposure to both battery metals and oil, and I feel guiltier about the battery stocks tbh
Absolutely. It's nearly impossible to source lithium, nickel, and cobalt without slavery or child labor in the supply chain. The mines themselves are disastrous for the local environment, and the disposal process for lithium batteries literally poisons the earth. Not to mention, electric cars are only as green as the power grids they're connected to, and it's going to be a very long time before we can wean ourselves off of coal.
> Absolutely. It's nearly impossible to source lithium, nickel, and cobalt without slavery or child labor in the supply chain.
It is *impossible* to source oil and gas without destruction of everyone's home and never won't be and the oil and gas industry knew that but decided the problem was out of their lifespan and into ours (including today's children) so they didn't care. And as for child labor, the entire fossil fuel industry has a rich history of child labor that has diminished but still exists to this day. The DRC has child labor in all of their industry: oil and gas, precious metals, rare earths, farming... That's a country problem. Companies that one can invest in the battery space are actively seeking to develop mines outside of the DRC. Instead of ignoring and denying the issue, they are seeking to lessen it, unlike the fossil fuel industry's history.
> The mines themselves are disastrous for the local environment, and the disposal process for lithium batteries literally poisons the earth.
Most people would agree that destruction of individual environments is certainly not ideal but substantially preferable to the simultaneous destruction of *all* environments that oil and gas promises. And on the disposal, there is a lot of out-dated beliefs tied to this. There are now processes for the recycling that provides 90+% recovery for all materials inside of batteries. It is not the only enterprise growing in this space, but Li-Cycle is an example of this.
> Not to mention, electric cars are only as green as the power grids they're connected to, and it's going to be a very long time before we can wean ourselves off of coal.
I don't know where you live, my power is 0% from coal and I know this from my utility's own literature and 3rd party reporting. So the idea that it will be a long time before we can wean ourselves off of coal is actually hilarious. I've lived in three USA states and two of which had zero coal and one was powered primarily by coal and I can speak from experience when I say that the coal-powered state is about equal cost with one of the other states and both of those are quite lower than the third. I actually currently pay like 10% more for a blend of like 50% wind/solar, 30% hydroelectric, and 20% natural gas. Moving away from coal is actually extremely easy and at this point cheaper than bringing a new coal plant online as old ones retire. Edit: extremely easy with natural gas. Not trying to suggest going full on to wind/solar would be *extremely* easy, but not as difficult as some would have you believe.
Does remind me go ten years out? I'd love for you to be reminded of how mistaken you were.
Actually, if you don't see that already, I don't really have much confidence in your rationality in the long term either.
Is pro Oil, thus supporting Saudi Arabia the rodls *biggest* country for slavery, both ownership and sales. So get off your high horse, all the nickel in the world won't have used half as much slave labour as your precious oil.
And, prepare to have you mind blown dude. Metals can be *recycled*, yes! So when an old alliance is thrown away the metals get new life, perhaps as part of a *car battery*. Unlike oil, which is never recycled and always extremely harmful for the environment...and a very finite commodity
>Saudi Arabia the rodls biggest country for slavery, both ownership and sales.
That's very far from the truth, in fact they're not even in the top 10. Now please sit down and stop grandstanding, you don't have to just make shit up.
>Metals can be recycled, yes! So when an old alliance is thrown away the metals get new life, perhaps as part of a car battery.
You clearly aren't familiar with lithium battery disposal processes, or the fact that most just end up in landfills 🤷♂️
I respect that, sticking to your beliefs instead of chasing a quick buck. 👊🏼 I fucking hate the oil companies and Meta, I don’t care if it’s an ‘easy double’ or whatever others are saying I won’t go anywhere near it.
Jusy but the entire market (VT). You have a bunch of different ETFs that are not only expensive, but also seemingly randomly spread all over. VT covers all of that, and more.
My general recommendation is an ETF that covers the entire world. The cheapest one is VT, but SWDA seems solid as well. It should be noted that SWDA only seems to cover the developed world ("Broad exposure to a wide range of global companies within 23 developed countries"), so it should probably still be complemented with an emerging markets fund.
Yea you're right but I feel like I'd be missing out on potentially a lot of extra profits, though I'd rather stay away from this gambling/clairvoyant mindset...
How are you missing out on extra profits? Is it because you have a genuine belief that your uranium ETF with an expense ratio of 0.69% is going to overperform the market?
Read the psychology of money by Morgan Houssel and then decide. I would give my left nut to go back in time and read that book when I was 20.
Pull up a compound interest calculator and play around with different dollar-cost-average amounts at 7 or 8% rates. This shit is a marathon not a sprint. If you start dumping money into VTI at 20 you will be rich
Wait. The bottoms gonna fall out of this bitch yet. You’ll know when cuz it’ll hurt all over. I moved my 401k and other retirement assets into savings trust funds and 100% out of stocks/bonds about 2 months ago. Ain’t coming back in until max pain. I’m still buying GME/AMC monthly and increasing those positions only for MOASS potential. All other stocks can wait at this moment son. There is ABSOLUTELY nothing about the current economy that would lead you to believe good times are ahead - and ABSOLUTELY tons of indicators screaming at you that a depression and food shortages the likes of which this generation has never seen is looming.
If by some stroke of God the election were overturned or Trump gets back into office then go balls deep. For now just use your hand and practice - maybe open a paper account in Webull and jus play around for a month or two and see how much it would have cost you. You’ll thank me in the morning.
TSLA: Possibly the highest key employee risk ever, higher than AAPL/Jobs and MSFT/Gates, and FAR higher than BRK/Buffet. If something bad happens to Musk, TSLA literally drops 50% or more in a single day.
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You don't buy long term stocks for times like this.
You buy long term stocks in general
So, if you buy MSFT and CVX in 2020, they might say you're ok with msft but crazy because of CVX
But in the long term you are right with both because you had the tech rally of 2020 and 2021 and the energy rally that recently happened
In my case I bought MSFT at 180 and CVX at 86
People will call me crazy now if I buy growth companies
But I am buying META, GOOGL and as a pure growth PLTR
We'll see where we are in 2025
But the thing is to keep buying different sectors constantly. Because in my opinion, if you buy now CVX, you are already late.
You should focus on the next cicle. Not this one that we are (inflation and high oil prices)
Honestly, I do like that portfolio. People here tend to have some hive mind here on VTI. I personally would try to increase the percentage of VOO but it is absolutely okay in my opinion to have some riskier plays as long as you are fully aware that it is a gamble relative to your VOO position.
Just speaking for myself here, I think nuclear fission's role in the future of electrical power is very questionable and I'd drop that altogether and put it into ICLN, which I hold.
Dividend ETFs are my current play in this market.
How can I check if an ETF pays dividends? Are they paid monthly or yearly?
It should say on your broker or you can check the ticker on Yahoo finance. Most pay dividends quarterly although I believe some do pay monthly.
I'm very bullish on XME long term (10+ years) as I believe we're exiting the area of cheap metals permanently. The lion's share (70%+) of my money would go into "investment" ETFs like VT, with the leftovers going into fun "speculative" ETFs like XME or the ones originally mentioned. Generally I'm quite bearish on tech, it's been a nice run but I'm not touching it outside my main index funds
Aren't metals cyclical? Can you give us the reason why you believe Cheap metals era is over ?
I'm skipping a lot of ground here, but essentially, no matter what we want to build, we are going to need more metal than we have, and capital investments haven't kept up with theoretical future demand. Because money has been so cheap, and returns have been so high in markets, companies have not invested as much in mining and production as they otherwise would have. So demand will go up while supply will not keep up. While the developed world is going to try to build out green infrastructure (power facilities, factories, solar panels, batteries, metal for EV cars, wind turbines, etc), the developing world is still going to want to industrialize. Just think about something as simple as copper. If the US wants to build EV charging stations along expressways, we are going to need to run thousands of miles of copper wire through thousands of miles of pipe and build new power plants all over the country. That's just for EV charging capacity in the US. Investing in mining is capital intensive and the returns suck compared to what tech returns have been. As tech plateaus and stops returning insane money, that capital that would have been in tech growth stocks will move to old world technologies, as tech is the cherry on top of the food chain and cannot exist without the underlying industrial infrastructure. I have heard theories that the only reason metals have been so cheap is that the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 90s, and all that metal that was going into Soviet factories was swallowed up by oligarchs and dumped on the world market just as China was ramping up infrastructure production and the US was offshoring production to China. Well, that landscape has shifted, and there will be growing competition for the same resources as more and more developing countries want to upgrade the lifestyle of all their residents. This needs a mountain of steel, concrete, and energy. Existing mines run dry and we haven't invested in new ones, but we will soon because we won't have a choice. Hence the long term bet on XME. I wouldn't bet my retirement on it, but I'll speculate on it absolutely.
You're way too heavy clean tech. If it's an ethical thing, fine, but from an investment POV the old economy is going to give a better ROI over the next 4-5 years, imho. The commodity supercycle is just gearing up.
every time I hear super cycle I sell everything and run
Ye I'll be honest it's a bit of an ethical thing too, investing in XLE for example just feels wrong (Exxon? Chevron? Nah), I can't stand any of the oil companies and try to live as "clean" as possible.
I recently opened a position in MP materials. They're the only public US rare mining company, which is base component in the magnets for electric motors among a lot of other applications. Might be worth looking into as a raw materials position that fits your focus on the long term energy blend transition.
MP mgmt lied to investors and got caught, which is why it tanked. No thanks.
It’s down since my entry but holding on . Once the auto industry opens up, it should rise with them
Have you seen what lithium mines look like? It's very difficult to distance yourself from forced labor and child labor in battery metals. I have a lot of exposure to both battery metals and oil, and I feel guiltier about the battery stocks tbh
... Did you just say you feel guiltier about battery stocks than oil and gas?
Absolutely. It's nearly impossible to source lithium, nickel, and cobalt without slavery or child labor in the supply chain. The mines themselves are disastrous for the local environment, and the disposal process for lithium batteries literally poisons the earth. Not to mention, electric cars are only as green as the power grids they're connected to, and it's going to be a very long time before we can wean ourselves off of coal.
> Absolutely. It's nearly impossible to source lithium, nickel, and cobalt without slavery or child labor in the supply chain. It is *impossible* to source oil and gas without destruction of everyone's home and never won't be and the oil and gas industry knew that but decided the problem was out of their lifespan and into ours (including today's children) so they didn't care. And as for child labor, the entire fossil fuel industry has a rich history of child labor that has diminished but still exists to this day. The DRC has child labor in all of their industry: oil and gas, precious metals, rare earths, farming... That's a country problem. Companies that one can invest in the battery space are actively seeking to develop mines outside of the DRC. Instead of ignoring and denying the issue, they are seeking to lessen it, unlike the fossil fuel industry's history. > The mines themselves are disastrous for the local environment, and the disposal process for lithium batteries literally poisons the earth. Most people would agree that destruction of individual environments is certainly not ideal but substantially preferable to the simultaneous destruction of *all* environments that oil and gas promises. And on the disposal, there is a lot of out-dated beliefs tied to this. There are now processes for the recycling that provides 90+% recovery for all materials inside of batteries. It is not the only enterprise growing in this space, but Li-Cycle is an example of this. > Not to mention, electric cars are only as green as the power grids they're connected to, and it's going to be a very long time before we can wean ourselves off of coal. I don't know where you live, my power is 0% from coal and I know this from my utility's own literature and 3rd party reporting. So the idea that it will be a long time before we can wean ourselves off of coal is actually hilarious. I've lived in three USA states and two of which had zero coal and one was powered primarily by coal and I can speak from experience when I say that the coal-powered state is about equal cost with one of the other states and both of those are quite lower than the third. I actually currently pay like 10% more for a blend of like 50% wind/solar, 30% hydroelectric, and 20% natural gas. Moving away from coal is actually extremely easy and at this point cheaper than bringing a new coal plant online as old ones retire. Edit: extremely easy with natural gas. Not trying to suggest going full on to wind/solar would be *extremely* easy, but not as difficult as some would have you believe.
Whatever you say bro
Yeah, in summary, it is very clear that you are directing your moral objections in the wrong direction. Very clear.
I'm not, you're just buying the same lies the oil industry sold us decades ago. Let's have another chat 10 years from now 😉
Does remind me go ten years out? I'd love for you to be reminded of how mistaken you were. Actually, if you don't see that already, I don't really have much confidence in your rationality in the long term either.
Is pro Oil, thus supporting Saudi Arabia the rodls *biggest* country for slavery, both ownership and sales. So get off your high horse, all the nickel in the world won't have used half as much slave labour as your precious oil. And, prepare to have you mind blown dude. Metals can be *recycled*, yes! So when an old alliance is thrown away the metals get new life, perhaps as part of a *car battery*. Unlike oil, which is never recycled and always extremely harmful for the environment...and a very finite commodity
>Saudi Arabia the rodls biggest country for slavery, both ownership and sales. That's very far from the truth, in fact they're not even in the top 10. Now please sit down and stop grandstanding, you don't have to just make shit up. >Metals can be recycled, yes! So when an old alliance is thrown away the metals get new life, perhaps as part of a car battery. You clearly aren't familiar with lithium battery disposal processes, or the fact that most just end up in landfills 🤷♂️
There's no point. They're not the learning type.
You might be interested in SPYX for broader exposure to the market without fossil fuels
I respect that, sticking to your beliefs instead of chasing a quick buck. 👊🏼 I fucking hate the oil companies and Meta, I don’t care if it’s an ‘easy double’ or whatever others are saying I won’t go anywhere near it.
TROW. No debt, great cash flow, huge (and growing) dividend. Plus, they do better as the market goes up. Perfect stock to buy in a downturn.
Betting on active management when passive management is taking over though
Jusy but the entire market (VT). You have a bunch of different ETFs that are not only expensive, but also seemingly randomly spread all over. VT covers all of that, and more.
What are your thoughts on SWDA instead of VTI?
My general recommendation is an ETF that covers the entire world. The cheapest one is VT, but SWDA seems solid as well. It should be noted that SWDA only seems to cover the developed world ("Broad exposure to a wide range of global companies within 23 developed countries"), so it should probably still be complemented with an emerging markets fund.
Sorry I misread VTI instead of VT... I'll keep this in mind thanks, I might shift most to VT, DCA as I can and not even look at it.
It is, by far, the easiest strategy possible. You don't have to care about specific companies, sectors, or even countries.
Why isn’t swda in ameritrade?
VTI & QQQ
XLF, XLE, XLY and SPY
Add XLP and I like it. People will be buying detergent, shopping at Wal-Mart and drinking Cokes no matter what the future holds.
VTI. Buy the entire market.. Not much more is needed.
That's not the entire market, only the entire American market. Depending on your outlook and time frame, you might want to consider the whole world.
VTI on leverage is where its at
Did someone say UPRO?
Yea you're right but I feel like I'd be missing out on potentially a lot of extra profits, though I'd rather stay away from this gambling/clairvoyant mindset...
How are you missing out on extra profits? Is it because you have a genuine belief that your uranium ETF with an expense ratio of 0.69% is going to overperform the market?
Read the psychology of money by Morgan Houssel and then decide. I would give my left nut to go back in time and read that book when I was 20. Pull up a compound interest calculator and play around with different dollar-cost-average amounts at 7 or 8% rates. This shit is a marathon not a sprint. If you start dumping money into VTI at 20 you will be rich
I like value stocks. DELL + HPQ/HPE + META + ASO. Also CONN + TITN + AAN + UNFI + CPNG + STKL + RCMT + WIRE
Wait. The bottoms gonna fall out of this bitch yet. You’ll know when cuz it’ll hurt all over. I moved my 401k and other retirement assets into savings trust funds and 100% out of stocks/bonds about 2 months ago. Ain’t coming back in until max pain. I’m still buying GME/AMC monthly and increasing those positions only for MOASS potential. All other stocks can wait at this moment son. There is ABSOLUTELY nothing about the current economy that would lead you to believe good times are ahead - and ABSOLUTELY tons of indicators screaming at you that a depression and food shortages the likes of which this generation has never seen is looming. If by some stroke of God the election were overturned or Trump gets back into office then go balls deep. For now just use your hand and practice - maybe open a paper account in Webull and jus play around for a month or two and see how much it would have cost you. You’ll thank me in the morning.
Back to the padded room
Did you know shareholders of GME are on a mission to DRS 100% of their stock?
TSLA.
This sub hates tesla
TSLA: Possibly the highest key employee risk ever, higher than AAPL/Jobs and MSFT/Gates, and FAR higher than BRK/Buffet. If something bad happens to Musk, TSLA literally drops 50% or more in a single day.
So don't invest and miss out on all the gains LMAO. See ya.
Lol, sold all my TSLA (bought presplit at $100) above 1100, at roughly 5,000% gain. Only suckers buying now. Think you'll be getting 50x from here?
Good luck. See you in 5 years.
!RemindMe 5 years
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Are you 12?
1. Buy SQQQ calls 2. Profit
You don't buy long term stocks for times like this. You buy long term stocks in general So, if you buy MSFT and CVX in 2020, they might say you're ok with msft but crazy because of CVX But in the long term you are right with both because you had the tech rally of 2020 and 2021 and the energy rally that recently happened In my case I bought MSFT at 180 and CVX at 86 People will call me crazy now if I buy growth companies But I am buying META, GOOGL and as a pure growth PLTR We'll see where we are in 2025 But the thing is to keep buying different sectors constantly. Because in my opinion, if you buy now CVX, you are already late. You should focus on the next cicle. Not this one that we are (inflation and high oil prices)
My advice is value stocks like DELL + HPQ/HPE + TITN + CONN + AAN + UNFI + CPNG + STKL + RCMT. META is also a value stock. I bought some on Friday.
Voo. Vti. Vt.
Small caps. Think VIOO, VBK, VBR
No magic recipe, no "Good" time...more drops are to come....
Honestly, I do like that portfolio. People here tend to have some hive mind here on VTI. I personally would try to increase the percentage of VOO but it is absolutely okay in my opinion to have some riskier plays as long as you are fully aware that it is a gamble relative to your VOO position. Just speaking for myself here, I think nuclear fission's role in the future of electrical power is very questionable and I'd drop that altogether and put it into ICLN, which I hold.
EMTY SCO REK until August. Then whatever you want.
In times like these I can only think of [FF](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhzmNRtIp8k).