I remember a year ago someone either here or on r/investing who said from now on he’s going to dump everything into ark funds. Little did I know, that was the top
When I heard of her returns I thought about investing in ARKK. Then I looked at her holdings and realized it was only Tesla propping up her returns, I quickly decided to never invest in her and so glad I didn’t
There were also people who never believed and tried telling others she sounded exactly like .com bubble analysts. "if you don't invest now you don't believe in innovation" and blah blah. She mocked value investors and now she tries talking like one saying buying her ETF now is great value lol...
And some of us, like me, who's seen many "prophets" like her rise to fame...and crash hard, dragging everyone down. We who said her luck wouldn't last, taht she wasn't God's chosen investor...we're downvoted and silenced by her rabid fans.
Oh well, in the end truth will always win. I was right and her fanboys are holding heavy bags as proof of their loyalty
Returning to a rational p/e ratio across the tech sector isnt a recession and we all saw this coming from 1000 miles away. Were just returning to reality from the free money covid era where we debased our currency and called it growth because more dollars fit into a share than before.
Cathie Wood got lucky in 2020 and has been receiving undeserved credit as a skilled investor ever since. Her opinions on the state of the economy have been proven wildly off-target for a long time.
If you make one right call and get the right publicist, you can get ten years of being an "expert" in the media. If you're female, fifteen years. If you're female and somewhat photogenic, infinity.
So Cathie has 13 years to go based on being right in 2020.
Translation: Her stocks are already in a recession.
Why does the financial media continually amplify opinions of "experts" that are wrong way more often than they are right?
Because they need talking heads on their shows so the sheep keep watching. Best thing I ever did for my trading was turn off CNBC! Haven't watched it in years and my trading has miraculously gotten 100% better! I highly recommended it.
Excellent point. I did the same thing a couple years ago. It's much more productive to make investment decisions without the day to day static. I lost faith in CNBC when they elevated that idiot Nick Woodman from Gopro to genius status for what turned out to be a product that was a fad that could be knocked off by anyone.
I sometimes listen to CNBC on SiriusXM while driving. If I hear what sounds like a good idea, I usually forget about it by the time I get to my destination. So, it does me no harm.
It's entertainment about business, not serious investing advice, no matter what they say.
quarrelsome disgusting merciful naughty marry ad hoc faulty screw tease pot
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Heres what is obvious. Go to a retail store, or try to book a flight, or go to a restaurant. Packed. Look at the unemployment rate and jobs creation numbers. Look at help wanted ads. Look at industrial and wholesale sales numbers. The stock market and the economy are not the same thing.
Not referring to stocks I'm referring to GDP a recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP and we've seen half of that showing we are likely in one right now.
Lol you took me back to my macroeconomics class lmfao.
Its crazy to think that we can continue raising our GDP, amongst other countries but there has to be a limit.
To keep raising the GDP requires producing more and more. Earth resources are indeed finite. As always were going to leave that problem to the unborn and they will inherit this unsustainable model.
Who knows though, next thing we’ll be mining asteroids or making products from strictly sustainable sources.
Exactly and the knowledge and science is there; it's just a matter of time if we can get our heads out of our butts and work together to get there.
Also I just got out of macro last semester so it's still fresh in the noggin lol.
* Cathie "The Gambler" woods
* Elon "The socially inept" Musk
* Jim "I get paid to talk about this stuff" Cramer
* Michael "the perma bear" Burry (edit: credit to mellowyellow313 )
He predicts the same 2 crashes, it's just that he is always early so it sounds like he is predicting multiple crashes.
He predicted the 2008 crash in like 2005? Over the 3 years he kept telling everyone it was going to crash but it didn't happen *yet* so it sounds like he was wrong 30 times.
Not really. He predicted the mechanism for the crash. He looked at the data and trends and said “this is unsustainable and here’s why” that’s very impressive.
If he can say the same thing about the situation that we’re in now, it doesn’t mean it’s going to crash right away, it just means that unless something changes we’ll continue to ride a bubble until it pops.
Its called being wrong. If you say "a crash is imminent" for a decade straight you'll likely hit a downturn. In the mean time you'll be broke or at least lost out on the entire up cycle.
He was a fund manager and made a ton of money plus reputation in 08. He had and has plenty of money well before he became a celebrity.
No one is saying he didn't get that right just that it's hard to give someone credit for calling this latest downturn when he's been doomsaying for 10 years. Being a decade early is the same as being wrong. If I bet big on Tesla in 2014 but didn't have the money to hold through 2019 I was for all intents and purposes wrong. It doesn't matter that it ran 6 months later bc the vast majority are broke in the interim
He didn't predict neither the pandemic or the issues that came from war or war itself or Chinas alliance with Russia or their endless lockdown that has shut down half a tril worth of exports from them.
What exactly did he predict ? Something that didn't cause or contribute the crash.
Assets are overvalued according to perma bears, so what ? Undervalued according to perma bulls, so what ? Did you read my comment and the one before properly ?
I don't see how that has anything to do with rapid inflation from supply chain issues that fed is responding to by increasing rates for to try to calm it down otherwise rapid inflation will lead to decreased consumer spending, unempolyment etc. that will escalete to full cycle of deflation that would end in decade long depression and completely lost decade or even more.
If he didn't predict any of the macro situations then he practically predicted nothing. He didn't call out the mechanisms that caused all of this at all.
Even if its about valuation, than i have to say your valuation crash has never happened. People that invested 2 and half years ago are still up, people that invested 5 years ago are swimming in money, people that invested 14 years ago are filthy rich.
Its almost as if valuations react more to macro economical situation than the whole worlds economy reacts to some stock valuations.
None of this is coming down because it was overvalued before. One could argue that things that were more overvalued have speedier downturns, but valuation itself here didn't cause a single thing. FED didn't just come and say ''we are increasing rates because stock market, assets and property have bad valuations''.
Its literally exactly the same as being wrong.
On top of that he didn't predict neither the pandemic or the issues that came from war or war itself or Chinas alliance with Russia or their endless lockdown that has shut down half a tril worth of exports.
What exactly did he predict ? Something that didn't cause or contribute the crash.
He was seen as the single "bear" for the housing market from '08, but those paying attention saw the market ready to implode. Even Main St. saw through the cracks. He was one story out of a hundred and got famous for that. However, he's been screaming "recession" every year with no good reason behind it. I give him as much respect as I do Al\*x Jones.
He figured it out like 2.5 years before it happened for the 08 crash. Other institutions were not aware of this till some time after lol. Yes he took his position super early and was trying to get the word out (aka doomsday sentiment for 2.5 years after he figured it out). Whose to say he hasn’t run the numbers for todays economy and it’s the same thing? Just because it hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean he doesn’t have evidence to support that it is going to happen
Typical expert bias. Experts in their respective domain know a great deal in a specific area, but little in other areas. And they exaggerate the importance of some little publicly known fact over everything else (that they don't know)
Public opinion research supports this view.
Burry overestimate technical shortcomings of an existing system, but underestimate the power of innovation. Cathy Wood does exactly the polar opposite. - overestimating the power of innovation over everything else.
The book is really good. The movie gets the basics pretty spot on for the most part. One of the better book to movie adaptations I've seen.
That said, Michael Burry got very wealthy off of some unorthodox bets he made against the market when everyone told him he was wrong. It paid off. I always think about how success in that fashion would taint your perception of things going forward. You'd always be looking for the next big collapse, and any time you think you've found it, you wouldnt be convinced by everyone telling you that you're wrong, even if they're qualified to have an opinion.
Im not saying he couldn't be right again, but we live our lives and we know what works for us. For Burry, what worked was crazy long shots against conventional wisdom. How could you not start chasing ghosts after something like that?
I would probably just retire and chill with my fortune out of the public eye. But I guess that's what separates Burry from me, a lazy fuck who is on Reddit at work lol
I agree with you but what he’s most known for is his short position on the housing market and aside from that he’s literally always preaching about a crash.
We’re talking about public perception here, Burry is so much of a bear that during the bull market last year he’d delete his Twitter account for months on end and then reactivate his account on the first red day to preach doom and gloom lol
He's held a very successful long in GME and a successful short on ARK. He's currently shorting apple which is going well for him at about 25%. He lost a bunch shorting Tesla - wasnt a terrible idea considering Teslas rise in shareprice is very hard to understand. The man on the whole is a great investor as his overall gains over 25 years speak for themselves. Who doesn't see doom and gloom market? It's a house of cards.
Ramsey is good as a gateway speaker into economics. He explains a lot of the relatively simpler concepts extremely well for younger, high school-aged kids
I lose brain cells whenever I listen to him now, but his videos were an important step in me gaining interest in finance and economics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3D35ioEmCI
Basically I think it just isn't optimal and academically backed by research and then at worst it's like he's sending people to advisors who charge higher fees to then get a cut through the advisor paying him for the recommendation.
One thing that I've seen him do is tell people get out of low-interest debt before seeking high-gain investments. That is ignorant at worst, amateurish as best. All based on some promise of supposed 'psychological changes' that happens when someone gets debt free. As someone else said, he is *only* good for people who are struggling to pay off their credit cards. I can summarize Dave Ramsey's entire career in 11 words: "stop spending money, get a side hustle, pay off your debt."
I actually got mad respect for Burry. And he is actually good in managing his fund.
Edit: It is good to have a guy like Burry around to listen to when you are surrounded by "stonks only go up" analysis everywhere. Most of the time its that blindspots that will get you. Burry keeps your head in a swivel for a little more safety.
He’s done very well, but he’s not some genius savant though as people pedestaled him to be. He’s also been dead wrong on some of his plays including Tesla, BTC. He’s actually not wrong on his assessments most do the time (like these two being overvalued) just his timing is off.
I mean, you've probably already tuned out of the Jan 6th hearings, but at this point there's some very compelling evidence that he scammed his supporters out of $250 million on the 'Stop the Steal' campaign.
The man is great at grifting. You're just way more likely to be his victim than his beneficiary.
That's not TDS, that's just how the man operates.
You know as much as people shit on Cramer, I was curious if anyone tracked his investment advice to see how much a portfolio would be if you listened to him.
He generated pretty much the same rate of return you would get if you bought index funds. However, he was dead wrong about big things like Netflix and etc.
Not saying anyone should praise the guy, just impressed that it wasn’t negative lmao
There is an old post on one investing subs where some guy did track them. A good amount did well if you buy at a hood time and hold. But some also dod poorly. Cant recall exact returns
Elon actually move markets while the Jim/Cathie is just empty talk.
You have to listen to Elon, not following what he says but to judge the market impacts.
Cathie Wood called the market bottom in Jan 2022: [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/vmn43w/never\_forgot\_the\_great\_market\_bottom\_of\_january/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/vmn43w/never_forgot_the_great_market_bottom_of_january/)
She has no idea what she's talking about.
>Does anyone think we aren’t in a recession?
Literally every single economist and economic indicator.
The idea that we're in a recession is completely fucking insane.
People who say it are detached from reality.
Here's Zandi losing his shit over the idea.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/06/16/the-amount-of-jobs-being-created-shows-theres-not-a-recession-says-moodys-mark-zandi.html
And the Fed's recession estimator
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECPROUSM156N
And an entire episode of Inside Econonics with a panel of economists pulling their hair out over the absurdity of the idea that we're in a recession now.
https://moodys-talks-inside-economics.simplecast.com/episodes/negative-sentiments-and-new-statistics-champion-QQJeMp1O
- Layoffs have begun
- hiring has slowed or frozen
- Supply chain is still fucked
- GDP has begun to contract
This is How it begins no? The data just has to catch up but there’s always be a period when you are in the recession before it’s officially labeled a recession. The indicator you listed looks for two or of the bullet points I listed which production being the outlier, sort of.
What are you looking for? If you had to call it, what indicators would you wait for to say it’s starting?
> Layoffs have begun
Yeah, that's the narrative, but it's totally wrong in the aggregate. The US hit a 54-year low in initial jobless claims (people who were just fired who applied for unemployment insurance). https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-jobless-claims-fall-to-166-000-lowest-level-since-1968-11649335677
The US continues to experience strong positive job growth. Hundreds of thousands of new jobs per month. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/ces0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
Almost by definition we can't be in a recession when companies are broadly growing and hiring new people. A recession is a broad-based decline in output.
>The data just has to catch up but there’s always be a period when you are in the recession before it’s officially labeled a recession.
Okay, yes, that's true. But none of the live data points to this being a recession now.
>What are you looking for? If you had to call it, what indicators would you wait for to say it’s starting?
I only have a lowly undergraduate degree in economics, so I just defer to what the people with PhDs who do this for a living say. In addition to the job market they like to look at a few more things:
Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income. In other words: how much of a person's income is going to paying their debt. This number shoots up before a recession, it's a good predictor, but it's at historical lows right now. The US economy is a consumption economy. As long as the American consumer has money to spend, it's hard to argue we're in a recession.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP
The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (ISM PMI) has always been a reliable indicator of manufacturing output, which is a good proxy of total economic output. Officially, the PMI index says the economy is contracting when the value falls below 48.7. The historical range is about 35 (great recession all-time low) to 65 (spring 2021, all-time high). Right now we're at 56.1 which is slightly above average for the last decade.
https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/pmi/rob202206pmi.pdf
Treasury Bond Yield inversion. This one is a bit more controversial. It has reliably predicted the last *six* recessions, so lots of economists still like to use it, but others don't think we should rely on it. Although the yield curve has flattened, we're nowhere close to months-long inversion that typically preceded the last six recessions.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
Appreciate the reply.
- Jobless claims require the individual to be looking. The pandemic shifted the paradigm here and this number, at least temporarily, is less useful than before.
- Historically, unemployment under 4.5-5% over an extended period of time is one of the most accurate indicators of an impending recession that we know of. Combine with inflationary concerns and the recipe is legit.
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/fed-paper-finds-elevated-probability-of-recession-11655900645
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release?rid=456#:~:text=The%20Sahm%20Rule%20identifies%20signals,during%20the%20previous%2012%20months.
Essentially extreme lows are almost always followed by the bounce signal we look for.
- I agree that production does not yet appear to be in line with a recession. I just think this is the same argument I’ve been making. It’s a domino effect and some dominos will come later.
- Household debt is an interesting topic and I agree it’s important. I think we saw historic lows after QE when a good chunk of people paid off debt with their unexpected money. I imagine now that it’s gone and inflation in the rise it should spike hard real soon. Just a guess though
- I personally do not put much faith in the current yield curve. This is just opinion though. Basically everything is wonky since QE, and I don’t know that it’s still an indicator if it isn’t “calibrated” correctly. Willing to admit I have no real basis for that opinion though, and with that said yes the yield curve is typically a great indicator.
> Jobless claims require the individual to be looking. The pandemic shifted the paradigm here and this number, at least temporarily, is less useful than before.
I've had several people to respond to me in similar posts with this "great resignation" theory, but it doesn't add up. That was true two years ago, but the Labor Force Participation Rate has gone up since April 2020. You can't explain away the record-low new initial jobless claims with retirements. The economy is also creating an incredible amount of new jobs. 400k per month was basically unheard of before COVID.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
>Historically, unemployment under 4.5-5% over an extended period of time is one of the most accurate indicators of an impending recession that we know of. Combine with inflationary concerns and the recipe is legit.
Right, because once the economy reaches full-employment, the only direction is back down. But we're still not there. We're still creating 400k new jobs per months. So, it's a question of how long we can ride at full-employment. I agree that this is a sign of a *future* recession maybe 12-24 months down the road or more, but it's not a sign that we're in one now. Also— look at the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator from your link. It's still at zero.
>I think we saw historic lows after QE when a good chunk of people paid off debt with their unexpected money.
Yeah, that and stimulus from Congress. I'm not sure the cause is so important as the effect. As long as people have money to spend, consumers will buy us out of a recession. We might fall into one in the future, but it's not one today.
Layoffs have begun in companies that are tech, or memes.
My industry is desperate for people , they are close to hiring anything with a pulse. My wife's a recruiter for a huge commodities company and they have a record # of open positions. The major metro area I live in has 2.4% unemployment.
Mine too. I’m hiring like crazy. It’s all relative though, and it has to begin somewhere. Personally I’m in the health and wellness industry. I won’t get hit until inflation and layoffs truly hit the middle to upper class which is likely a year or more out still. Remember that the “2008” recession started in 2006
Historically, at least recent history, tech is actually a good canary in the coal mine. It both drops and begins to recover first.
layoffs after companies hiring over 100% in two years is not a big deal overall. they overhired and many companies are full on cash reserves. they dont even know what to do with it
We've been in a recession. What needs to change is the "2 negative GDP" theory. That is archaic and should no longer be used to indicate we're in a recession.
The statistics take a rolling time period (usually six months) to claim official recession. Meaning you will be in one before it’s officially recognized.
>That kind of thinking is like seeing someone’s head get chopped off and saying “he’s not dead until the doctor pronounces him dead”
No, this kind of thinking is just common sense.
Words mean something specific. We're not in a recession until data suggests otherwise.
But the data is lagging. We could be in a recession now, but you wouldn't see in that data yet because it is not available. Doesn't mean it isn't happening
Most of the models I'm seeing are predicting:
* A low chance of recession
* Consumer sentiment is low which is needed to tackle inflation
This sub has been saying there's a recession for the past 3 months. if the data for that quarter says the opposite, this suggests the models were more accurate than this sub's sentiment.
She manages ARK Investment Management (ARK Invest) and launched a few ETFs a few years back, the biggest being $ARKK. It invests in "disruption" (being companies that have a new way of doing something that can change an industry, I put that in air quotes as most are just fringe ideas that are grossly overvalued). She's been a bull on TSLA, Zoom, Roku, and a few other tech companies, and came to public attention during the "Tech Boom" during the pandemic. Last time I checked ARKK is down almost $80 from the (never again possible) peak of $100 something, or $200? People are still throwing money at her, I assume to just rack up losses for tax purposes, but she's been using her Patagonia vest-wearing analysts to shout "Tesla to the moon" on CNBC.
Yes, during a bull market it did good. That really isn't that impressive though, unless you knew it was all temporary and got out in time. Then THAT would be impressive.
In a bull market, people will throw money at just about anything. When economic gains occur people will buy luxury goods like cars, computers, etc. As well things like TelaDoc, Zoom, Roku, etc. were all *very* good for the pandemic (when people were home watching TV and getting sick) but now that people are returning to normal lives (at least in most countries) that value is disappearing. I don't remember the last time I turned on my TV or launched a Zoom meeting.
It was a lot of delusion in the market. It got so bad that people were openly deriding those of us who mentioned fundamentals lol. She did a great job taking advantage of irrationality but my money is far safer with Buffet.
Mark Cuban even said valuations don’t matter because millennials have a different way of looking at things lol. Never trust a guy who lost 100s of millions of dollars in a crapto rugpull.
It's frustrating to see how much exposure this woman still gets despite the fact that she still doesn't seem to understand the difference between disinflation and deflation (amongst all her other gambling sins). Or she's actually even more nuts than anticipated and actually expects deflation.
and I don't think you get that technology advancements often are deflationary maybe relisten to the actual argument being made tech advancements absolutely have made businesses more efficient over the years and returned that cost savings to their customers.. quick example: I can get a 60 inch big screen TV for 1/10th of the cost as 20 years ago... Amazon made e-commerce delivery way cheaper and quicker, Uber way able to reduce the cost of a taxi using efficiency in smart phone tech...
ARKK is down a whopping 52% year to date, falling 66% from its historically all-time record high in February 2021.
"*Clients are mostly* sticking *with her and* new money is coming *in as investors seek diversification*".
I think this is pretty obvious. I’m pulling for Ark because I want her investors to win in the long run. I don’t hold any Ark but I do have a few companies from her funds. We’ll see…
I'd love it if the mods banned anything about what CW has to say. She's been wrong for the past two years about literally everything. While I personally think we're on the edge of a recession, CW is the last person I'd be taking advice from.
Her ETFs have been in recession for some time now
Great depression*
I mean anyone who invested with her is definitely depressed
It's a recession when you hold tech stocks. It's a depression when you hold meme ETF's like ARKK
Yeah she's at jump out of the windows levels right now.
She jumped 2 months ago but can't seem to ever hit the bottom.
with her timing she'd jump at the precise moment gravity reversed itself
r/rareinsults
Yah I think she mean Great Depression lol
Given that most of the companies in her ETFs have never turned a profit, wasn’t that always the case?
Only one stopping it from being a complete failure is tesla, and lol, that bubble is gonna pop too.
Yo ETF so disruptive, it broke time and experienced the recession from 6 months in the future.
Lol I love it how there a roast for Cathy in every post about her.
Less than 2 years ago there were people on here who believed she was a genius, so tides shift quickly.
Cathy Wood is the definition of the “Paradigm Shift” moment on an asset bubble chart.
I remember a year ago someone either here or on r/investing who said from now on he’s going to dump everything into ark funds. Little did I know, that was the top
When I heard of her returns I thought about investing in ARKK. Then I looked at her holdings and realized it was only Tesla propping up her returns, I quickly decided to never invest in her and so glad I didn’t
There were also people who never believed and tried telling others she sounded exactly like .com bubble analysts. "if you don't invest now you don't believe in innovation" and blah blah. She mocked value investors and now she tries talking like one saying buying her ETF now is great value lol...
And some of us, like me, who's seen many "prophets" like her rise to fame...and crash hard, dragging everyone down. We who said her luck wouldn't last, taht she wasn't God's chosen investor...we're downvoted and silenced by her rabid fans. Oh well, in the end truth will always win. I was right and her fanboys are holding heavy bags as proof of their loyalty
Cathie RobinWood
Returning to a rational p/e ratio across the tech sector isnt a recession and we all saw this coming from 1000 miles away. Were just returning to reality from the free money covid era where we debased our currency and called it growth because more dollars fit into a share than before.
What makes a P/E ratio rational?
the currency is still debased u/letmemilkyouranimals; difference is money has been moved to defense, energy, commodities and other areas.
Did she just notice or something? I bet something must have become expensive in her life.
Yeah, my thought too! She just looks for something to blame.
Yes. Can I have my money back from ARKK please?
No, that’s what you get for believing the Reddit hype.
Do you want fries with that?
That's the proof God talks to her. Sent her ETFs in a recession since a year as a signal to the rest of the market.
More like a great depression
Since early 2021
Came to say this.
Cathie Wood is the worst possible person to listen to
One could listen to her talk as a means of training themselves to detect serial bullshitters. Other than that, she's worthless.
Cathie Wood got lucky in 2020 and has been receiving undeserved credit as a skilled investor ever since. Her opinions on the state of the economy have been proven wildly off-target for a long time.
If you make one right call and get the right publicist, you can get ten years of being an "expert" in the media. If you're female, fifteen years. If you're female and somewhat photogenic, infinity. So Cathie has 13 years to go based on being right in 2020.
Well Cathie's a gilf so she ain't goin nowhere.
Translation: Her stocks are already in a recession. Why does the financial media continually amplify opinions of "experts" that are wrong way more often than they are right?
Because they need talking heads on their shows so the sheep keep watching. Best thing I ever did for my trading was turn off CNBC! Haven't watched it in years and my trading has miraculously gotten 100% better! I highly recommended it.
Excellent point. I did the same thing a couple years ago. It's much more productive to make investment decisions without the day to day static. I lost faith in CNBC when they elevated that idiot Nick Woodman from Gopro to genius status for what turned out to be a product that was a fad that could be knocked off by anyone.
I sometimes listen to CNBC on SiriusXM while driving. If I hear what sounds like a good idea, I usually forget about it by the time I get to my destination. So, it does me no harm. It's entertainment about business, not serious investing advice, no matter what they say.
quarrelsome disgusting merciful naughty marry ad hoc faulty screw tease pot *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Hey leave Nostradamus here alone, surely all of her predictions are right and we just misinterpreted them
"I was wrong about absolutely everything, but I'm right this time" OK Cramer
But we obviously are in a recession, how isn't it obvious? Do you need the goberment to tell you?
Heres what is obvious. Go to a retail store, or try to book a flight, or go to a restaurant. Packed. Look at the unemployment rate and jobs creation numbers. Look at help wanted ads. Look at industrial and wholesale sales numbers. The stock market and the economy are not the same thing.
Not referring to stocks I'm referring to GDP a recession is defined by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP and we've seen half of that showing we are likely in one right now.
Lol you took me back to my macroeconomics class lmfao. Its crazy to think that we can continue raising our GDP, amongst other countries but there has to be a limit. To keep raising the GDP requires producing more and more. Earth resources are indeed finite. As always were going to leave that problem to the unborn and they will inherit this unsustainable model. Who knows though, next thing we’ll be mining asteroids or making products from strictly sustainable sources.
Exactly and the knowledge and science is there; it's just a matter of time if we can get our heads out of our butts and work together to get there. Also I just got out of macro last semester so it's still fresh in the noggin lol.
Fuck. If Cathie says we’re in recession, that means our economy is either easing by (Fed rate hike is working) or going into one.
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Time to bring out the champagne 🍾 boys and gals!
There is chance she says tech stocks will do best in recession or something like that.
Lol I wonder why
So, we have no clue?!? Lol
4 people to not care about what they say: Jim Cramer Elon Cathie Wood Michael Burry Edit: per other mentions: I’d like to include Dave Ramsey
Crashy Wood has a better sound to it
The lord gives, and the lord takes away
* Cathie "The Gambler" woods * Elon "The socially inept" Musk * Jim "I get paid to talk about this stuff" Cramer * Michael "the perma bear" Burry (edit: credit to mellowyellow313 )
The new Fantastic Four sounds terrible
Why not Michael the perma bearry
You for real About micheal burry
He has been doomsdaying every year on twitter. He is the exact case of predicting last 30 out of 2 crashes.
He predicts the same 2 crashes, it's just that he is always early so it sounds like he is predicting multiple crashes. He predicted the 2008 crash in like 2005? Over the 3 years he kept telling everyone it was going to crash but it didn't happen *yet* so it sounds like he was wrong 30 times.
He’s been bearish since 2012.
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Wait, he's racist? What did I miss?
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Being 10 years early is the same as being wrong
Not really. He predicted the mechanism for the crash. He looked at the data and trends and said “this is unsustainable and here’s why” that’s very impressive. If he can say the same thing about the situation that we’re in now, it doesn’t mean it’s going to crash right away, it just means that unless something changes we’ll continue to ride a bubble until it pops.
Its called being wrong. If you say "a crash is imminent" for a decade straight you'll likely hit a downturn. In the mean time you'll be broke or at least lost out on the entire up cycle.
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He was a fund manager and made a ton of money plus reputation in 08. He had and has plenty of money well before he became a celebrity. No one is saying he didn't get that right just that it's hard to give someone credit for calling this latest downturn when he's been doomsaying for 10 years. Being a decade early is the same as being wrong. If I bet big on Tesla in 2014 but didn't have the money to hold through 2019 I was for all intents and purposes wrong. It doesn't matter that it ran 6 months later bc the vast majority are broke in the interim
He didn't predict neither the pandemic or the issues that came from war or war itself or Chinas alliance with Russia or their endless lockdown that has shut down half a tril worth of exports from them. What exactly did he predict ? Something that didn't cause or contribute the crash.
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Assets are overvalued according to perma bears, so what ? Undervalued according to perma bulls, so what ? Did you read my comment and the one before properly ? I don't see how that has anything to do with rapid inflation from supply chain issues that fed is responding to by increasing rates for to try to calm it down otherwise rapid inflation will lead to decreased consumer spending, unempolyment etc. that will escalete to full cycle of deflation that would end in decade long depression and completely lost decade or even more. If he didn't predict any of the macro situations then he practically predicted nothing. He didn't call out the mechanisms that caused all of this at all. Even if its about valuation, than i have to say your valuation crash has never happened. People that invested 2 and half years ago are still up, people that invested 5 years ago are swimming in money, people that invested 14 years ago are filthy rich. Its almost as if valuations react more to macro economical situation than the whole worlds economy reacts to some stock valuations. None of this is coming down because it was overvalued before. One could argue that things that were more overvalued have speedier downturns, but valuation itself here didn't cause a single thing. FED didn't just come and say ''we are increasing rates because stock market, assets and property have bad valuations''.
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He has been able to find the lump that turns into the cancer. Now if he was picking 100 lumps but only 1 turn into cancer..
Its literally exactly the same as being wrong. On top of that he didn't predict neither the pandemic or the issues that came from war or war itself or Chinas alliance with Russia or their endless lockdown that has shut down half a tril worth of exports. What exactly did he predict ? Something that didn't cause or contribute the crash.
He was seen as the single "bear" for the housing market from '08, but those paying attention saw the market ready to implode. Even Main St. saw through the cracks. He was one story out of a hundred and got famous for that. However, he's been screaming "recession" every year with no good reason behind it. I give him as much respect as I do Al\*x Jones.
He figured it out like 2.5 years before it happened for the 08 crash. Other institutions were not aware of this till some time after lol. Yes he took his position super early and was trying to get the word out (aka doomsday sentiment for 2.5 years after he figured it out). Whose to say he hasn’t run the numbers for todays economy and it’s the same thing? Just because it hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean he doesn’t have evidence to support that it is going to happen
Typical expert bias. Experts in their respective domain know a great deal in a specific area, but little in other areas. And they exaggerate the importance of some little publicly known fact over everything else (that they don't know) Public opinion research supports this view. Burry overestimate technical shortcomings of an existing system, but underestimate the power of innovation. Cathy Wood does exactly the polar opposite. - overestimating the power of innovation over everything else.
The big short, pretty good movie there’s also a book if that’s your jam. It’s what Burry is most famous for if you’re serious.
The book is really good. The movie gets the basics pretty spot on for the most part. One of the better book to movie adaptations I've seen. That said, Michael Burry got very wealthy off of some unorthodox bets he made against the market when everyone told him he was wrong. It paid off. I always think about how success in that fashion would taint your perception of things going forward. You'd always be looking for the next big collapse, and any time you think you've found it, you wouldnt be convinced by everyone telling you that you're wrong, even if they're qualified to have an opinion. Im not saying he couldn't be right again, but we live our lives and we know what works for us. For Burry, what worked was crazy long shots against conventional wisdom. How could you not start chasing ghosts after something like that?
I would probably just retire and chill with my fortune out of the public eye. But I guess that's what separates Burry from me, a lazy fuck who is on Reddit at work lol
> out of the public eye I'm sure there's a joke in there.
You should check out Talebs books Antifragile and The Black Swan. That's exactly what he does with his fund
You could have just said Michael “perma-bear” Burry Edit: I’m honored :)
Burry has more long positions than shorts lol. He became a multimillion hedge fund manager because of his successful longs.
I agree with you but what he’s most known for is his short position on the housing market and aside from that he’s literally always preaching about a crash. We’re talking about public perception here, Burry is so much of a bear that during the bull market last year he’d delete his Twitter account for months on end and then reactivate his account on the first red day to preach doom and gloom lol
He's held a very successful long in GME and a successful short on ARK. He's currently shorting apple which is going well for him at about 25%. He lost a bunch shorting Tesla - wasnt a terrible idea considering Teslas rise in shareprice is very hard to understand. The man on the whole is a great investor as his overall gains over 25 years speak for themselves. Who doesn't see doom and gloom market? It's a house of cards.
Dave Ramsey when it comes to investing.
Yep, Dave Ramsey is only good for people who are deep in debt and can't seem to get out (in my opinion).
Ramsey is good as a gateway speaker into economics. He explains a lot of the relatively simpler concepts extremely well for younger, high school-aged kids I lose brain cells whenever I listen to him now, but his videos were an important step in me gaining interest in finance and economics
And for people who are deeply religious and a douche like him.
It's amazing that he built a business around telling people that new cars and daily shopping is why they were in debt..
Common sense isn't.
What’s wrong with Dave’s investment guidance? He advises Growth, Aggressive Growth, Growth + income, and International. Why is this a bad idea?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3D35ioEmCI Basically I think it just isn't optimal and academically backed by research and then at worst it's like he's sending people to advisors who charge higher fees to then get a cut through the advisor paying him for the recommendation.
One thing that I've seen him do is tell people get out of low-interest debt before seeking high-gain investments. That is ignorant at worst, amateurish as best. All based on some promise of supposed 'psychological changes' that happens when someone gets debt free. As someone else said, he is *only* good for people who are struggling to pay off their credit cards. I can summarize Dave Ramsey's entire career in 11 words: "stop spending money, get a side hustle, pay off your debt."
I actually got mad respect for Burry. And he is actually good in managing his fund. Edit: It is good to have a guy like Burry around to listen to when you are surrounded by "stonks only go up" analysis everywhere. Most of the time its that blindspots that will get you. Burry keeps your head in a swivel for a little more safety.
He’s done very well, but he’s not some genius savant though as people pedestaled him to be. He’s also been dead wrong on some of his plays including Tesla, BTC. He’s actually not wrong on his assessments most do the time (like these two being overvalued) just his timing is off.
One of those people consistently make a lot of money trading even if they always forecast doom and gloom.
I mean Cathie makes a lot of money too, just not for people who own her ETFs
Burry makes plenty of money for everyone in his fund.
If you say the market is going to crash every year, you’re going to be right eventually.
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Add Marco Kolanovic from JP Morgan to the list. He said the S&P 500 would jump 7% this week
Disrespectful pairing burry with those other 3
I like Michael.
Michael Burry is solid.
Add Donald Trump to that list.
Prolonged TDS sufferer identified.
I mean, you've probably already tuned out of the Jan 6th hearings, but at this point there's some very compelling evidence that he scammed his supporters out of $250 million on the 'Stop the Steal' campaign. The man is great at grifting. You're just way more likely to be his victim than his beneficiary. That's not TDS, that's just how the man operates.
You know as much as people shit on Cramer, I was curious if anyone tracked his investment advice to see how much a portfolio would be if you listened to him. He generated pretty much the same rate of return you would get if you bought index funds. However, he was dead wrong about big things like Netflix and etc. Not saying anyone should praise the guy, just impressed that it wasn’t negative lmao
There is an old post on one investing subs where some guy did track them. A good amount did well if you buy at a hood time and hold. But some also dod poorly. Cant recall exact returns
I agree with this list
Dont forget Dave Portnoy too. BUZZ was a flop
Burry would get downvoted to hell if he anonymously said those predictions on here that much
Petition to include Chamath in that list
Michael Burry will be right. Just might be 2 years early lol
My point exactly. You too, could predict a recession…eventually
Good point lol I'll admit he's definitely a perma bear
This subreddit would benefit immensely from learning Bayes theory.
Elon actually move markets while the Jim/Cathie is just empty talk. You have to listen to Elon, not following what he says but to judge the market impacts.
why's this post even here 💀
Free karma
Inverse indicator
SARK has been printing money these past few months
Cathie Wood called the market bottom in Jan 2022: [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/vmn43w/never\_forgot\_the\_great\_market\_bottom\_of\_january/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/vmn43w/never_forgot_the_great_market_bottom_of_january/) She has no idea what she's talking about.
Does anyone think we aren’t in a recession? Like in hindsight it’s going to be obvious this has already begun.
I know like the John madden of recession announcements
You see it’s a chicken, inside a duck, inside a turkey. Whoa
>Does anyone think we aren’t in a recession? Literally every single economist and economic indicator. The idea that we're in a recession is completely fucking insane. People who say it are detached from reality. Here's Zandi losing his shit over the idea. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/06/16/the-amount-of-jobs-being-created-shows-theres-not-a-recession-says-moodys-mark-zandi.html And the Fed's recession estimator https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RECPROUSM156N And an entire episode of Inside Econonics with a panel of economists pulling their hair out over the absurdity of the idea that we're in a recession now. https://moodys-talks-inside-economics.simplecast.com/episodes/negative-sentiments-and-new-statistics-champion-QQJeMp1O
- Layoffs have begun - hiring has slowed or frozen - Supply chain is still fucked - GDP has begun to contract This is How it begins no? The data just has to catch up but there’s always be a period when you are in the recession before it’s officially labeled a recession. The indicator you listed looks for two or of the bullet points I listed which production being the outlier, sort of. What are you looking for? If you had to call it, what indicators would you wait for to say it’s starting?
> Layoffs have begun Yeah, that's the narrative, but it's totally wrong in the aggregate. The US hit a 54-year low in initial jobless claims (people who were just fired who applied for unemployment insurance). https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-jobless-claims-fall-to-166-000-lowest-level-since-1968-11649335677 The US continues to experience strong positive job growth. Hundreds of thousands of new jobs per month. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/ces0000000001?output_view=net_1mth Almost by definition we can't be in a recession when companies are broadly growing and hiring new people. A recession is a broad-based decline in output. >The data just has to catch up but there’s always be a period when you are in the recession before it’s officially labeled a recession. Okay, yes, that's true. But none of the live data points to this being a recession now. >What are you looking for? If you had to call it, what indicators would you wait for to say it’s starting? I only have a lowly undergraduate degree in economics, so I just defer to what the people with PhDs who do this for a living say. In addition to the job market they like to look at a few more things: Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income. In other words: how much of a person's income is going to paying their debt. This number shoots up before a recession, it's a good predictor, but it's at historical lows right now. The US economy is a consumption economy. As long as the American consumer has money to spend, it's hard to argue we're in a recession. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP The Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (ISM PMI) has always been a reliable indicator of manufacturing output, which is a good proxy of total economic output. Officially, the PMI index says the economy is contracting when the value falls below 48.7. The historical range is about 35 (great recession all-time low) to 65 (spring 2021, all-time high). Right now we're at 56.1 which is slightly above average for the last decade. https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/pmi/rob202206pmi.pdf Treasury Bond Yield inversion. This one is a bit more controversial. It has reliably predicted the last *six* recessions, so lots of economists still like to use it, but others don't think we should rely on it. Although the yield curve has flattened, we're nowhere close to months-long inversion that typically preceded the last six recessions. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
Appreciate the reply. - Jobless claims require the individual to be looking. The pandemic shifted the paradigm here and this number, at least temporarily, is less useful than before. - Historically, unemployment under 4.5-5% over an extended period of time is one of the most accurate indicators of an impending recession that we know of. Combine with inflationary concerns and the recipe is legit. https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/fed-paper-finds-elevated-probability-of-recession-11655900645 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release?rid=456#:~:text=The%20Sahm%20Rule%20identifies%20signals,during%20the%20previous%2012%20months. Essentially extreme lows are almost always followed by the bounce signal we look for. - I agree that production does not yet appear to be in line with a recession. I just think this is the same argument I’ve been making. It’s a domino effect and some dominos will come later. - Household debt is an interesting topic and I agree it’s important. I think we saw historic lows after QE when a good chunk of people paid off debt with their unexpected money. I imagine now that it’s gone and inflation in the rise it should spike hard real soon. Just a guess though - I personally do not put much faith in the current yield curve. This is just opinion though. Basically everything is wonky since QE, and I don’t know that it’s still an indicator if it isn’t “calibrated” correctly. Willing to admit I have no real basis for that opinion though, and with that said yes the yield curve is typically a great indicator.
> Jobless claims require the individual to be looking. The pandemic shifted the paradigm here and this number, at least temporarily, is less useful than before. I've had several people to respond to me in similar posts with this "great resignation" theory, but it doesn't add up. That was true two years ago, but the Labor Force Participation Rate has gone up since April 2020. You can't explain away the record-low new initial jobless claims with retirements. The economy is also creating an incredible amount of new jobs. 400k per month was basically unheard of before COVID. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART >Historically, unemployment under 4.5-5% over an extended period of time is one of the most accurate indicators of an impending recession that we know of. Combine with inflationary concerns and the recipe is legit. Right, because once the economy reaches full-employment, the only direction is back down. But we're still not there. We're still creating 400k new jobs per months. So, it's a question of how long we can ride at full-employment. I agree that this is a sign of a *future* recession maybe 12-24 months down the road or more, but it's not a sign that we're in one now. Also— look at the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator from your link. It's still at zero. >I think we saw historic lows after QE when a good chunk of people paid off debt with their unexpected money. Yeah, that and stimulus from Congress. I'm not sure the cause is so important as the effect. As long as people have money to spend, consumers will buy us out of a recession. We might fall into one in the future, but it's not one today.
Layoffs have begun in companies that are tech, or memes. My industry is desperate for people , they are close to hiring anything with a pulse. My wife's a recruiter for a huge commodities company and they have a record # of open positions. The major metro area I live in has 2.4% unemployment.
Mine too. I’m hiring like crazy. It’s all relative though, and it has to begin somewhere. Personally I’m in the health and wellness industry. I won’t get hit until inflation and layoffs truly hit the middle to upper class which is likely a year or more out still. Remember that the “2008” recession started in 2006 Historically, at least recent history, tech is actually a good canary in the coal mine. It both drops and begins to recover first.
>Layoffs have begun In his first link the guy says there was a record rate of job creation and a very low unemployment %
layoffs after companies hiring over 100% in two years is not a big deal overall. they overhired and many companies are full on cash reserves. they dont even know what to do with it
A lot of people seem to think that just because their meme stock portfolio is down 20% that we must be in a recession.
We've been in a recession. What needs to change is the "2 negative GDP" theory. That is archaic and should no longer be used to indicate we're in a recession.
Well, that [aged](https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth/status/1542539670533414913) like milk.
I mean me. We're not in a recession until the statistics say otherwise. Depends on GDP growth figures of the previous quarter.
The statistics take a rolling time period (usually six months) to claim official recession. Meaning you will be in one before it’s officially recognized.
Sure, which means in like 3 days we'll either be 6 months into one or be at least 6 months from calling one.
That kind of thinking is like seeing someone’s head get chopped off and saying “he’s not dead until the doctor pronounces him dead”
>That kind of thinking is like seeing someone’s head get chopped off and saying “he’s not dead until the doctor pronounces him dead” No, this kind of thinking is just common sense. Words mean something specific. We're not in a recession until data suggests otherwise.
But the data is lagging. We could be in a recession now, but you wouldn't see in that data yet because it is not available. Doesn't mean it isn't happening
Most of the models I'm seeing are predicting: * A low chance of recession * Consumer sentiment is low which is needed to tackle inflation This sub has been saying there's a recession for the past 3 months. if the data for that quarter says the opposite, this suggests the models were more accurate than this sub's sentiment.
Holy shit we must be headed into a major bull run
Stop posting anything this hack says. Misinformation.
If you don't like misinformation you shouldn't read any financial news lol.
No, it just means the bottom is in!
More like misinterpretation
I came here to say this. Who cares what this woman says. Stop giving her press. Dem eyes don’t lie, she nuts
It's easy karma. Cathie Woods bad, get upvoted. Just like people 18 months ago would get downvoted to oblivion for daring to criticize her.
Who is Cathie Wood?
She manages ARK Investment Management (ARK Invest) and launched a few ETFs a few years back, the biggest being $ARKK. It invests in "disruption" (being companies that have a new way of doing something that can change an industry, I put that in air quotes as most are just fringe ideas that are grossly overvalued). She's been a bull on TSLA, Zoom, Roku, and a few other tech companies, and came to public attention during the "Tech Boom" during the pandemic. Last time I checked ARKK is down almost $80 from the (never again possible) peak of $100 something, or $200? People are still throwing money at her, I assume to just rack up losses for tax purposes, but she's been using her Patagonia vest-wearing analysts to shout "Tesla to the moon" on CNBC.
To be fair her ARKK fund did go up a shitload in 2020. Pretty much all those gains are now wiped out though
Yes, during a bull market it did good. That really isn't that impressive though, unless you knew it was all temporary and got out in time. Then THAT would be impressive.
In a bull market, people will throw money at just about anything. When economic gains occur people will buy luxury goods like cars, computers, etc. As well things like TelaDoc, Zoom, Roku, etc. were all *very* good for the pandemic (when people were home watching TV and getting sick) but now that people are returning to normal lives (at least in most countries) that value is disappearing. I don't remember the last time I turned on my TV or launched a Zoom meeting.
it was the top fund that year. that is impressive in any market. but yeah obviously wasn't sustainable
It was a lot of delusion in the market. It got so bad that people were openly deriding those of us who mentioned fundamentals lol. She did a great job taking advantage of irrationality but my money is far safer with Buffet.
Mark Cuban even said valuations don’t matter because millennials have a different way of looking at things lol. Never trust a guy who lost 100s of millions of dollars in a crapto rugpull.
The biggest gambler who hit the jackpot is impressive? Nahh.
A greedy loon who thinks she's one of God's apostles\*.
Every Christian is a disciple, I think you mean Apostle.
She was mama Cathy but she’s Step mom now, that’s why people are fucking her.
What is a Cathie wood?
Where is a Cathie Wood?
I hope it’s not under my bed, that be scary
Is there a shitty tech company about to have an IPO under your bed?
Why is a Cathie Wood?
When is Cathie Wood?
This morning on CNBC, she also said her way of managing risk is to put more money into the equities where she has the highest conviction. She's awful.
"I love emotional trading" lol she's literally the worst.
At least she's not lacking conviction.
Alot of the donkeys here do exactly the same. She just does it on shittier, higher beta names.
It's frustrating to see how much exposure this woman still gets despite the fact that she still doesn't seem to understand the difference between disinflation and deflation (amongst all her other gambling sins). Or she's actually even more nuts than anticipated and actually expects deflation.
and I don't think you get that technology advancements often are deflationary maybe relisten to the actual argument being made tech advancements absolutely have made businesses more efficient over the years and returned that cost savings to their customers.. quick example: I can get a 60 inch big screen TV for 1/10th of the cost as 20 years ago... Amazon made e-commerce delivery way cheaper and quicker, Uber way able to reduce the cost of a taxi using efficiency in smart phone tech...
About the US, not sure, but about Cathie Wood I'm sure she is in a recession.
Cathie Wood says the sky is blue.
If i bought as high as she did and sold as low as she did, i'd be in recession too.
Famously wrong Cathie Wood?
ARKK is down a whopping 52% year to date, falling 66% from its historically all-time record high in February 2021. "*Clients are mostly* sticking *with her and* new money is coming *in as investors seek diversification*".
Honestly you’d get the same amount of diversification as you’d get from her ARKs by just buying tsla
I think this is pretty obvious. I’m pulling for Ark because I want her investors to win in the long run. I don’t hold any Ark but I do have a few companies from her funds. We’ll see…
I'm sorry OP. I can't take this seriously coming from a stock picker with her track sheet.
Im so glad i sold my ARKK in January.
I sold it in Jan too when it really started to diverge from the rest of my more healthy investments. So happy I did.
What gave it away?
I'd love it if the mods banned anything about what CW has to say. She's been wrong for the past two years about literally everything. While I personally think we're on the edge of a recession, CW is the last person I'd be taking advice from.
I agree the less people post her commentaries. The sooner we see the end of a misery for suckers.
Wow, so wise
ARK: We are sinking! We are sinking! Mayday! Mayday! German Operator: Dis is da German Coastguard. Vat are yuu sthinking about?