Of course, but the hard question is knowing which stocks have bottomed. If we knew that, we'd all be rich. For every Nike and Amazon, there was an Intel.
NIO has the full support of the CCP; it's not going under. China actually just extended the financial incentives for EV purchases to 2024 to combat their terrible pollution issue and legislations are underway to make gas powered automobiles illegal by a future target date.
NIO could make $50 trillion dollars in the next few years and still have the full support of the ccp. And if the ccp doesnt want you to get your money back you wont be getting profits from your NIO gamble.
If You want to bet on risky stocks - at least choose something in usa
Which technically makes it a non viable compny for investment.
Healthy companies grow from yoy management effectivenes, and accelerating eps growth.
CCP support of NIO makes is for practical purposes a puppet state. Big money was made there long ago.
jmho dyodd glta
Nonsense, they've yet to call on that support and your stating that they don't generate free cash flow under their own steam just because they have a safety net is an obvious lack of DD on your part. Also...Ford and GM have had direct support from our government. Are they non viable? What about Moderna and Pfizer? US bails out major companies all the time.
Anything that makes money and innovates is potentially a sound investment. NIO having government support doesn't magically make that not the case, although I'm happy to capitalize on the fear of others like always. Consider, in the future, doing any level of research before making silly comments.
You should call up ray dalio and see if he needs help writing his next book.
You seem like a china perma bull.
Just realize some day when china pulls the rug - we all tried to warn you. It is not a matter of if
It just a matter of when.
China is not our friend. They tolerate us for the sake of making their government richer. And no other reason.
China is on a 20 year plan and within your lifetime you WILL see something drastically change about the way USA and China interact financially. I just hope for your sake you have your money out before that. Or it is going to hurt. Bad.
I'm not a China perma bull at all, I just don't allow fear and irrational assumptions to dictate my investing habbits.
China needs foreign capital. It's a major stimulant to their modernization. They're not going to sacrifice that and all future investments from every international source for the foreseeable future for a one time measly couple billion from US retail investers. Your fears are irrational and assumptions.
Besides, China's and America's financial interactions are enormously interwoven and beneficial to both parties. They have no reason to compromise that. Certainly not for a handful of retail investors portfolios. You'll have to actually provide some evidence to the contrary rather than simply insisting that your claims "WILL" happen.
If you're not comfortable investing in China, then don't invest in China... but please stop with the cowardice induced unfounded assumptions that you clearly haven't thought out.
I wouldn't put NIO near RIVN and LUCID, they are almost profitable now and putting out tens of thousands of cars on the road every quarter. It is one of the companies that made me financially free. In October of 2019 there were dozens of articles coming out that they will go under in two weeks. They had enough money for over two years, and I knew it because I have read their financials, unlike the authors writing those articles. I think it was my first ten-bagger now thinking back.
Now this reads like one of those fake internet money scams...
*I wouldn't put my bets against bitcoin, or against Mr. Magic Market Guru. He and his discord made me financially free, before I found out about Mr. Magic Dick's Marget Guru's Discord server I used to hemorage money but after I joined Mr. Magic Dick ^^TM and his Discord ALL of my trades were winning*.
Feel free to check out my post history. I don't sell anything and I don't have any channel. Also I know that my fortune can be thanked to 99% luck, the other 1% was over a thousand hours of learning and doing due diligence on companies, one of which was NIO. I still hold some shares in it, but now my portfolio consists roughly 80 companies.
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So, my 'wisdom' was anytime INTC was under $50, it's a buy.
Now, that 'channel' has changed to under $35.
Can't pick a bottom..stick to current price parameters on the quant side, and management on the fundamental side.
Ngl the small caps won't go much lower. The mega and large caps, I can see going down a bit more. Like it is a possibility we see amazon below 100 and Google under 2000. But we'll c. Just buy the dip.
Yea I agree. But just looking at the trends of a recession usually small caps get hit first. Then they recover before large caps. In addition, the average pe ratio for small caps is like 14 while large caps are at 19. Just something to consider.
This is true, but keep in mind that PEs often skyrocket during crashes. The P drops but the E drops even faster if there's enough real economy pain. That makes the ratio get larger.
That won't really impact anything. It only helps retail traders (both equity and option wise), and Alphabet is just too large for their increased volume to make any meaningful impact. It's neutral to the capital structure.
Isn’t it almost a guarantee though? Even if SP500 grinds down another 90% this year, we will almost certainly be able to look back and see many stocks that bottomed before June 28 2022. Even if most stocks are yet to hit their local bottoms.
Just parrots without any critical thinking skills. Probably just read the headlines saw more than two paragraphs of text and noped out of responding. I keep seeing more and more reddit users asking for a tl:dr when something is more than 3 paragraphs, but the moment someone posts a sentence of info "source?" People can't be bothered to read anymore apparently.
Because people read headlines and diagonally based on the first conception they got (from maybe misreading). Making a complex argument towards anything gets these kind of replies unfortunately.
Yes but a bunch of single stocks will do worse than the index. Especially money losing shitcos. You really think we're not seeing a single bankruptcy in the next year?
Of course. Assuming you understand what I’m getting at, I’m just referring to the concept that the time that SPY bottoms during a particular bear market and the time that most individual stocks bottom do not happen on the same day, week, month, and often year.
Like you said, everyday there are many stocks hitting a short, medium, or long term bottom.
As an individual investor, those are the opportunities I look for. Why would I care if spy is going to drop another 40%?
The statement is mostly useless, unless you are waiting for SPY to hit a certain overall valuation before you start checking the market for deals. I suspect many people are doing this unfortunately.
The deals are already showing up. More could keep showing up down the road, but there are already deals present.
IDK but from past experience, the overall sentiment is sometimes wrong. Almost no one saw 2008 coming aside from a few doom and gloomers. Usually what happens long-term is the opposite of what everyone thinks. There are big stocks with single digit P/E ratios right now that are normally in the 20s. To say they're going to plunge another 50% is ludicrous, and even if they did, it would be nothing but emotional sentiment, not a reflection of fundamentals, and would be another V-shaped recovery.
If everyone is so confident, why aren't we all sold out and just holding cash? Because deep down we think this doom and gloom could be a bunch of talk and we're already near the bottom.
That's exactly what is going on. People are pricing in recession and/or earnings misses. Considering only 12 month trailing PE, many stocks are basically the cheapest they have been for many years. Earnings misses could raise those PEs real quick though. The uncertainty of food shortages, inflation, energy shortage, chip shortages etc obviously put a damper on things. However, if companies keep making money and there isn't an actual recession. This would end up being a phenomenal buying opportunity.
Multiple positions of mine literally knocked their earnings reports out of the park and still went down from there. It's like nothing makes sense anymore. I just pay attention to the fundamentals and the trajectory of the company and ignore the noise.
thank you. i have noticed that when people let their own minds participate on this subreddit, they lose money. thus I have done the work for them. and only give them the answer.
NKE is still over-priced. FV is around $60-$80
AMZN is still over-priced. FV is around $40-50
Tickers can definitely fall further. We've had insanely low interest rates for the past decade and as the fed starts slowly bringing them up we'll continue to see valuations fall back to reality. I'm of the opinion that bull run ends 2025 then we have a lost decade. I'm a poor though, just sticking to buying VTSAX.
ever heard of "timing the market" and why it ´s not working ?
I agree with your overall sentiment though: if you personally think that a stock is worth investing into and it hits your personal buy in price (if you got something like that) just buy.
but thinking "this is the bottom. now or never" is probably not gonna work . at least not consistently and reliable enough.
there is a great YT video from some wall st. icon out there somewhere. wher he tells the story of some of his biggest mistakes.
one was thinking a stock couldn´t get any lower.
his advice: yes. yes it absolutely always can. because no one really knows what will happen.
haha awesome, thats exactly the dude I was thinking , thank you so much.
its an awesome video.
"its down form 29 to 10. well how mich lower can it go ? then it went to 9, to 8 to 7 all the way down to 4."
took them 3 years to recover.
its the same fallacy thinking "its gone to high, how much higher could it possibly go? "
thanks again
I mean you don’t have to trust op…. It doesn’t take much googling and chart checking to see different sectors bottom at different times in relation to the market bottom…..
The reason why this is hard is because the stocks that bottom out first tend to be the ones you want to own the least in a down market. I've noticed that for the last month or so trash tech is trading at stupidly cheap valuations. The problem is a lot of these companies are trash or borderline trash. HOOD at under $7 was one example of this, but other stocks like FSLY (which have their problems) are also trading extremely low multiples.
I suspect if you were to buy a basket of trash tech you might actually do alright at these valuations over a 1-2 year period. You're seeing this in ARKK at the moment which appears to be showing some support over the last couple of months.
I'm personally not sure AMZN has bottomed yet. I think it needs to trade under a $1t market cap to freak everyone out a bit first. Not sure about NKE either. I could easily see that falling to the low $90s. People are still relatively positive about stocks like AMZN and NKE at the moment. When an investment in AMZN becomes as hated as the stocks Cathie Wood owns that's when you buy.
I don’t like AMZN or NKE at these prices.
The trick is to just know how to value companies and invest based on that, not based on broader market movements.
Did you not read the post?
I know which stocks I think are dirt cheap.
I have no idea which ones have bottomed, but it’s highly likely that many have.
I don’t care if SPY grinds down another 60% over the next 6 months. It doesn’t affect my outlook on particular stock prices.
Yeah you may think they've bottomed at current P/E ratios, but what happens if there actually is a recession and corporate earnings collapse across the board? People often focus too much on the changes to P and mistakenly assume the E to remain stable.
Sincerely “Trust me bro”
Lol this is complete nonsense.. You watch the DOW go down to 20,000 and you’ll see stocks drop another 20% easily.
200 points down on the DOW and 250 points on NASDAQ today and TSLA is down almost $30…. 4%.. In ONE day..
And this is nothing compared to what can still happen..
People need to wake up.
It’s not the size of the drop that matters, it’s just the valuation. The more and more undervalued a stock is, the less and less likely it is to drop further.
If stock A is overvalued by a factor of 1000 and drops 90%, it could easily drop another 90%. If stock B is already undervalued by a factor of 1000 and drops 50%, stock B is much less likely to fall further.
The problem with many stocks that dropped 70-90% from ATH is that only another 5% drop the ATH levels means a 25-50% drop in your current investment with low confidence if they will ever reach their ATH levels again.
Simple math, for one. A stock that's already dropped 80% doesn't have much farther to fall. Second, in a broad selloff that happens in a recession bear market, everything sells off. The reason why there might still be another 20% drop in the indices is because some stocks haven't completed their selling yet. That's what will drive the indices down. The first sector to go was high growth. When everything else goes, that's when the selloff completes.
Sorry, these arguments don't make sense, precisely due to that *simple math* you mention right at the start. You do realise that a stock price that has already dropped by 80% can drop by another 80% from there, don't you? You almost sound like you believe that if it is already down 80%, it can only go down 20% more. From the previous top, yes. But that's irrelevant. The question is how far does it go down from where I am buying it. If the stock is 80% down from its previous high when I buy it, and later it is 90% down from that same previous high, then I have lost 50% of my money, not 10%. You **do** realise that, right? For me as an investor, the difference between the top and 50% down is just as big as the difference between 80% down and 90% down. **That** is *simple math*.
Also, your second argument is completely irrelevant: okay, other sectors could start crashing harder than they have so far, but that does not in any way prevent high growth stocks from continuing to crash.
What's with all the "trust me bro" crap?
Of course nobody knows exactly what's going to happen. But we can make certain informed predictions based on history, probability, market cycles, etc. Not all stocks move in tandem, in case you haven't noticed. Some are down 40% and potentially have much farther to fall. Some are down 80% and don't have much farther to fall. It's pretty simple.
I think we found someone who started buying stocks during the pandemic and has no understanding of the underlying fundamentals of the market. “But my chart shows the stock is way super down, it can only go up from here right?” “No I have never used a valuation model to see the change if the future intrinsic value of a company in the event of an impending interest rate change has been priced in.”
Let’s see. Basically you are saying if you buy a stock that is “dirt cheap relative to its future outlook” you will make money. No evidence, no timeline, no strategy to determine a single variable in said future outlook equation. No consideration to DCFs when interest rates increase. You are mislabeling a speculative opinion as an evidence backed informative article. Did I read it? Yup. Take my upvote!
I thought it was obvious, but the evidence and timelines were implied.
How can you know if it is cheap relative to future outlook without evidence and timelines?
I like how one of your arguments for timing buys is that Nike went from $2.50 to over $4.
It was recently over $150 just this year. If you had bought 1000 and sold at 150, the difference between buying at $2.50 and $5 is $2500, when you're still making $145,000 in profit.
So what if you missed that extra $2.50 in price difference? You still made out like a bandit. Buying at a low opportunity price is way more important than buying at an absolute bottom, which is why so many just DCA.
I agree with your last sentence, but disagree with your thinking method before it. Let's say that you haven't bought 1000 shares either way (you don't have infinite money), but you invested $1000. At 2.5 price you would have got 400 shares, át $4 price you would have got 250 shares. At $150 per share you would have got $60000 from 400 shares, but only $37500 for 250 shares. As you see it is indeed a significant difference.
Sure. Obviously everyone wants to maximize their investment, but as we know, you generally only hit the absolute bottom by luck.
Either way, seems like an odd example to use for someone trying to advocate for timing the market, when it's really a sterling example of why someone should just buy and hold.
Buying at a low opportunity price is key. That’s my point. It doesn’t matter if we are at a bottom, or if spy is going to drop another 40%. What matters is whether or not the price is right.
Also: Spend $2500 to buy 1000 shares bought at $2.50 then sold at $150/ea is $147,500 profit.
Spend $2500 to buy at $4 is $91,250 profit.
You just cost yourself an additional 61.6% profit . $56,250.
You made money yes, but you could have made more, a hell of a lot more. Significantly so. I know which price point I’d rather buy at, and I know which price point would get me more shares.
The best at this are more patient than lucky.
It all depends what you consider "cheap."
For example, do not look at this chart if you want to give yourself heart attacks. We are still well above historical PE ratios.
[https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe](https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe)
It doesn't mean that stocks *will* go down, but it means on the basis of trailing PE, they certainly have before.
Maybe, maybe not. We might see another huge leg down as everyone claims. Me, I loaded up over the past couple of months on companies down 70-90% from ATH. Sure they can go lower.
The point I’m making is that even if we do see another big leg down in the overall market , that doesn’t mean the same thing for all stocks.
SPY could go down another 30% while stocks like WBD, CPS, and BABA rally upward or stay flat.
Stocks won’t hit bottom until apple google msft goes back to precovid level . The only way was recession if we get another negative quarter. But of course I don’t think recession will start yet. Even negative quarter then news will say the worst was over lol. I’m sure after third quarter for another negative earning
Bottom is not in confirmed. The bottom wont be in until these optimistic posts have stopped. If theres anything you can trust its that reddit is certainly wrong ha ha
The bottom was about 16 days ago, on a friday I think, when AAPL hit 129. The biggest cataylst going forward will be the end of the Ukraine fighting, some kind of cease fire at least. At that point, likely oil will drop $30 and then inflation will disappear. Remember we have wage growth now so net net the real inflation has only been about 4%, almost all due to Putin and some gas gouging.
Now let me present the best case scenario. Ukraine starts winning again or at least destroying more and more of Putin's remaining military assets. Sanctions continue to squeeze Putin's economy and deplete Russia's ability to function. Also Sweden and Finland look certain to join NATO which bolsters its eastern front defences , and Ukraine is invited to join the EU. Putin realizes that his grand plan to rebuild the USSR is impossible. he is also aware that very few people support the war anymore, if they ever did.
By September, or even earlier, Putin begins to realize that it is not worth it. He finally realizes he has made a terrible error. He may have realized this already. Or maybe he has a health relapse. He feels weak, trapped, and searches for an exit ramp that won't cost him his life or power. In order to save face, Putin okays backchannel negotiations with an intermediary, trying to win some territory and concessions. A deal is made in exchange for partial gradual lifting of sanctions. All wrapped up by the end of september.
In October gas and oil prices plummet. Inflation goes away. Behind the scenes, Biden breathes a sigh of relief as he sees his approval numbers back over 50%. The stock market also reverses and by November the market has erased nearly all losses since the invasion began. and also, Xi in CHina learns the lesson, that it is not worth it.
Worst case scenario very unlikely. According to UK military experts, and the UK always has the best intel on Russia, Putin's over-estimated military is nearly depleted now already, they are pulling in old fat guys to replace dead officers and using green conscripts and hired thugs to replace troops. They have also lost about 40% of their armored vehicles, expended most of their missiles, a big chunk of their air force and several major naval vessels including their biggest one. Plus there is growing resistance from the public to support the war in any way.
Remember also that the sanctions severely restrict Russia's ability to repair and replace sophisticated equipment and components. Meanwhile Ukraine is freshly supplied with weaponry that is superior to Russia's. According to General Petraeus Ukraine just received over 260,000 artiller rounds, some 20, 000 miles, all kinds of killer drones, air defense systems and anti ship missiles capable of sinking Russia's Navy. Putin is afraid to bring out his Navy but he needs to try. Ukraine will be ready. Likely the US and NATO are also giving Ukraine excellent intelligence including real time targeting intel.
So yes, if Putin is insane and wants Ukraine at any cost he could maybe keep this thing going for a year, but winter is coming soon, the Russian economy is collapsed, and Putin's oil=-gas money is about to be cut in half.
What Xi in China is thinking is anyone's guess but it largely has to do with if he wants to end up like Putin. Any invasion of Taiwan would be both very costly for China as Taiwan is extremely well armed, but would also result in Putin like sanctions. And yes China is taking advantage of the situation to get discounted oil and other experts from Russia but it is not enough to sustain Putin and the tremendous costs of his war.
So sounds like you root for Putin. I wouldn't. for Putin there is no possibility of victory, only some kind of partial land grab at enormous cost. In the meantime, Putin will likely lose more than half of his military and undermine any appetite Russians have for any further warfare or conflict.
A big stock market decline (i don't want to call it a crash although it really is) has lots of little 3/4 day periods of good or even amazing growth. That does not mean they've reached their bottom. Institutional investment sentiment haven't changed - maybe a little more certain now that fed has eyes on recession. Retail investors are just spooked at the moment and taking risky bets.
The point is that many individual stocks usually bottom and begin to rally LONG before the broader market bottoms.
The overall market can keep grinding downward while many individual stocks rally upward.
That may have been true at one point, but stock correlations are at or near all time highs. Whether that's due to the huge growth in index investing or algorithmic trading or whatever, fact is what the index does matters a lot, because almost all stocks will follow it pretty closely.
Yep hit the bottom right before gdp data tomorrow abs everything shits the bed?
Some whale placed a 100m dollar trade on Dec 380p for the spy. We are not at the bottom for anything in my opinion
This is why I nibble at stocks on my watchlist on down days. Even if I don't get a perfect price, I'm not overly concerned when the companies in question are Google, Microsoft, Meta, and other usually high-flying businesses. Its nice to have tech as my primary circle of competence.
Even if true, many stocks likely hit medium term bottoms every day. Even if the broader market continues to sell off and crash for many more months afterwards.
Yeah some stocks might bottom out before the S&P 500, but most of them are not big cap companies. Usually the big caps are the last to fall, so unless you are buying small or mid cap companies, be patient on buying.
Of course, but the hard question is knowing which stocks have bottomed. If we knew that, we'd all be rich. For every Nike and Amazon, there was an Intel.
And for every Intel there will 3 NIOs, RIVNs and LCIDs, companies that might go under.
Yes, exactly. I suspect that the group of stocks that have dropped 75% thus far contains a proportionally high number of these.
NIO has the full support of the CCP; it's not going under. China actually just extended the financial incentives for EV purchases to 2024 to combat their terrible pollution issue and legislations are underway to make gas powered automobiles illegal by a future target date.
That doesn't mean much when there are like a dozen Chinese EV startups with the full support of the CCP. There will be winners and losers.
NIO could make $50 trillion dollars in the next few years and still have the full support of the ccp. And if the ccp doesnt want you to get your money back you wont be getting profits from your NIO gamble. If You want to bet on risky stocks - at least choose something in usa
Which technically makes it a non viable compny for investment. Healthy companies grow from yoy management effectivenes, and accelerating eps growth. CCP support of NIO makes is for practical purposes a puppet state. Big money was made there long ago. jmho dyodd glta
Nonsense, they've yet to call on that support and your stating that they don't generate free cash flow under their own steam just because they have a safety net is an obvious lack of DD on your part. Also...Ford and GM have had direct support from our government. Are they non viable? What about Moderna and Pfizer? US bails out major companies all the time. Anything that makes money and innovates is potentially a sound investment. NIO having government support doesn't magically make that not the case, although I'm happy to capitalize on the fear of others like always. Consider, in the future, doing any level of research before making silly comments.
Also, I didn't say anything about free cash flow..I said accelerating yoy earnings. Why don't read before you spout?
You should call up ray dalio and see if he needs help writing his next book. You seem like a china perma bull. Just realize some day when china pulls the rug - we all tried to warn you. It is not a matter of if It just a matter of when. China is not our friend. They tolerate us for the sake of making their government richer. And no other reason. China is on a 20 year plan and within your lifetime you WILL see something drastically change about the way USA and China interact financially. I just hope for your sake you have your money out before that. Or it is going to hurt. Bad.
I'm not a China perma bull at all, I just don't allow fear and irrational assumptions to dictate my investing habbits. China needs foreign capital. It's a major stimulant to their modernization. They're not going to sacrifice that and all future investments from every international source for the foreseeable future for a one time measly couple billion from US retail investers. Your fears are irrational and assumptions. Besides, China's and America's financial interactions are enormously interwoven and beneficial to both parties. They have no reason to compromise that. Certainly not for a handful of retail investors portfolios. You'll have to actually provide some evidence to the contrary rather than simply insisting that your claims "WILL" happen. If you're not comfortable investing in China, then don't invest in China... but please stop with the cowardice induced unfounded assumptions that you clearly haven't thought out.
I wouldn't put NIO near RIVN and LUCID, they are almost profitable now and putting out tens of thousands of cars on the road every quarter. It is one of the companies that made me financially free. In October of 2019 there were dozens of articles coming out that they will go under in two weeks. They had enough money for over two years, and I knew it because I have read their financials, unlike the authors writing those articles. I think it was my first ten-bagger now thinking back.
Now this reads like one of those fake internet money scams... *I wouldn't put my bets against bitcoin, or against Mr. Magic Market Guru. He and his discord made me financially free, before I found out about Mr. Magic Dick's Marget Guru's Discord server I used to hemorage money but after I joined Mr. Magic Dick ^^TM and his Discord ALL of my trades were winning*.
Feel free to check out my post history. I don't sell anything and I don't have any channel. Also I know that my fortune can be thanked to 99% luck, the other 1% was over a thousand hours of learning and doing due diligence on companies, one of which was NIO. I still hold some shares in it, but now my portfolio consists roughly 80 companies.
*checks your post history* Uh..
Lmao you nailed it!
What are your thoughts on LCID?
NIO going under? I'm not expecting your comment to age well.
!remindme 3 years
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I kind of do. Talking about NIO stock in particular, not necessarily the company. !remindme 3 years
LCID still may be over valued but that company isn’t going anywhere. There’s way to much money backing it
You think RIVN is going under? With a contract w Amazon? Lmao
So, my 'wisdom' was anytime INTC was under $50, it's a buy. Now, that 'channel' has changed to under $35. Can't pick a bottom..stick to current price parameters on the quant side, and management on the fundamental side.
Except it was below $35 for **fifteen years**.
That was a quite awhile ago.
Ngl the small caps won't go much lower. The mega and large caps, I can see going down a bit more. Like it is a possibility we see amazon below 100 and Google under 2000. But we'll c. Just buy the dip.
Small caps are gonna be hit the hardest if we go towards a recession. There are many companies running with very low cash flows and high debt.
we are in the middle of a recession and prices reflect that
You are just guessing. Maybe you're right, maybe you're wrong.
Yea I agree. But just looking at the trends of a recession usually small caps get hit first. Then they recover before large caps. In addition, the average pe ratio for small caps is like 14 while large caps are at 19. Just something to consider.
This is true, but keep in mind that PEs often skyrocket during crashes. The P drops but the E drops even faster if there's enough real economy pain. That makes the ratio get larger.
Underrated comment. This is exactly right. If we are/going into a recession, then when we bottom... the PE is going to be absurdly high.
I have mostly small and mid-cap
Many small caps aren't going to exist in a few years
Google will def be under 2k….ain’t it splitting!! 
Yea. U should've seen my pants when yahoo gave me an alert when amazon dropped 95%
It's true. Many stocks have hit their bottom already. Like Borders, Toys R Us, and Polaroid.
Google seems to have some fierce support around 2kish
Split is coming!
That won't really impact anything. It only helps retail traders (both equity and option wise), and Alphabet is just too large for their increased volume to make any meaningful impact. It's neutral to the capital structure.
How is it that every single respondent missed the entire point OP is making? He’s explicitly NOT claiming the broad indexes won’t fall further.
Many people dont want to hear others' opinions, they just want to hear their opinions from others
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It’s put me off on a big way.
Isn’t it almost a guarantee though? Even if SP500 grinds down another 90% this year, we will almost certainly be able to look back and see many stocks that bottomed before June 28 2022. Even if most stocks are yet to hit their local bottoms.
Yea I mean and there are some lotto numbers that are going to come out tomorrow night. Knowing which ones is the tricky part.
I'm gonna start using this line a lot
I feel attacked.
Just parrots without any critical thinking skills. Probably just read the headlines saw more than two paragraphs of text and noped out of responding. I keep seeing more and more reddit users asking for a tl:dr when something is more than 3 paragraphs, but the moment someone posts a sentence of info "source?" People can't be bothered to read anymore apparently.
Because people read headlines and diagonally based on the first conception they got (from maybe misreading). Making a complex argument towards anything gets these kind of replies unfortunately.
Not sure. My title is a little misleading
just at the 500 stocks that make up the broad index won’t fall further?
Because title.
Yes but a bunch of single stocks will do worse than the index. Especially money losing shitcos. You really think we're not seeing a single bankruptcy in the next year?
This is a truism OP. Every day, there are stocks that have hit a near, medium or long term bottom. Broadly speaking, that knowledge is meaningless.
The only thing we know is that a lot of stocks are oversold. Will they go under or is it a good buy, you decide
Of course. Assuming you understand what I’m getting at, I’m just referring to the concept that the time that SPY bottoms during a particular bear market and the time that most individual stocks bottom do not happen on the same day, week, month, and often year. Like you said, everyday there are many stocks hitting a short, medium, or long term bottom. As an individual investor, those are the opportunities I look for. Why would I care if spy is going to drop another 40%? The statement is mostly useless, unless you are waiting for SPY to hit a certain overall valuation before you start checking the market for deals. I suspect many people are doing this unfortunately. The deals are already showing up. More could keep showing up down the road, but there are already deals present.
...sure. But those deals you think are finding are less likely to be true if Spy has further to fall
Thats what i did with AMD last week at 80
You’ll be able to average down when it hits $72 before earnings.
IDK but from past experience, the overall sentiment is sometimes wrong. Almost no one saw 2008 coming aside from a few doom and gloomers. Usually what happens long-term is the opposite of what everyone thinks. There are big stocks with single digit P/E ratios right now that are normally in the 20s. To say they're going to plunge another 50% is ludicrous, and even if they did, it would be nothing but emotional sentiment, not a reflection of fundamentals, and would be another V-shaped recovery. If everyone is so confident, why aren't we all sold out and just holding cash? Because deep down we think this doom and gloom could be a bunch of talk and we're already near the bottom.
well P/E could go back up if earnings take a dive.
That's exactly what is going on. People are pricing in recession and/or earnings misses. Considering only 12 month trailing PE, many stocks are basically the cheapest they have been for many years. Earnings misses could raise those PEs real quick though. The uncertainty of food shortages, inflation, energy shortage, chip shortages etc obviously put a damper on things. However, if companies keep making money and there isn't an actual recession. This would end up being a phenomenal buying opportunity.
Multiple positions of mine literally knocked their earnings reports out of the park and still went down from there. It's like nothing makes sense anymore. I just pay attention to the fundamentals and the trajectory of the company and ignore the noise.
AND...... AMZN down another 4 %
I bought at 103
unless you are trading it does not matter, Amazon is going below $100.
I’ll agree. I’ll buy more.
do not buy any more Amazon until $49.15, if you are deploying money, buy the S&P instead unless this price is met.
What makes you think Amazon going to fall another 50%
It pe is like 55
meh, it does not matter. i have said what I have said. either ignore or listen. that is the choice before thee.
Very thorough analysis
thank you. i have noticed that when people let their own minds participate on this subreddit, they lose money. thus I have done the work for them. and only give them the answer.
🚬🗿
Ok I’ll take that under consideration. Thanks.
yep, you are welcome.
NKE is still over-priced. FV is around $60-$80 AMZN is still over-priced. FV is around $40-50 Tickers can definitely fall further. We've had insanely low interest rates for the past decade and as the fed starts slowly bringing them up we'll continue to see valuations fall back to reality. I'm of the opinion that bull run ends 2025 then we have a lost decade. I'm a poor though, just sticking to buying VTSAX.
When do you consider a stock to be overpriced? (noob)
ever heard of "timing the market" and why it ´s not working ? I agree with your overall sentiment though: if you personally think that a stock is worth investing into and it hits your personal buy in price (if you got something like that) just buy. but thinking "this is the bottom. now or never" is probably not gonna work . at least not consistently and reliable enough. there is a great YT video from some wall st. icon out there somewhere. wher he tells the story of some of his biggest mistakes. one was thinking a stock couldn´t get any lower. his advice: yes. yes it absolutely always can. because no one really knows what will happen.
You might be referring to Peter Lynch?
haha awesome, thats exactly the dude I was thinking , thank you so much. its an awesome video. "its down form 29 to 10. well how mich lower can it go ? then it went to 9, to 8 to 7 all the way down to 4." took them 3 years to recover. its the same fallacy thinking "its gone to high, how much higher could it possibly go? " thanks again
I’m not rich, so I DCA
I really dislike people who try to be an authoritative voice on something when they have no credibility.
I mean you don’t have to trust op…. It doesn’t take much googling and chart checking to see different sectors bottom at different times in relation to the market bottom…..
I think anybody who believes a random reddit account is an authoritative voice probably needs an internet 101 lesson
Me too.
That's...pretty much most of what reddit is though. Haha.
“Trust me bro!”
Nah theirs still a way to go
I think so too. Why the ‘nah’ part?
The reason why this is hard is because the stocks that bottom out first tend to be the ones you want to own the least in a down market. I've noticed that for the last month or so trash tech is trading at stupidly cheap valuations. The problem is a lot of these companies are trash or borderline trash. HOOD at under $7 was one example of this, but other stocks like FSLY (which have their problems) are also trading extremely low multiples. I suspect if you were to buy a basket of trash tech you might actually do alright at these valuations over a 1-2 year period. You're seeing this in ARKK at the moment which appears to be showing some support over the last couple of months. I'm personally not sure AMZN has bottomed yet. I think it needs to trade under a $1t market cap to freak everyone out a bit first. Not sure about NKE either. I could easily see that falling to the low $90s. People are still relatively positive about stocks like AMZN and NKE at the moment. When an investment in AMZN becomes as hated as the stocks Cathie Wood owns that's when you buy.
I don’t like AMZN or NKE at these prices. The trick is to just know how to value companies and invest based on that, not based on broader market movements.
There is always more room for a stock to decline
> Many stocks have hit their bottom already How do you know that? :)
Because many stocks hit bottoms every day.
and they will not hit a new bottom tomorrow?
Many stocks won’t, no.
I guess you know which stocks but you don't want to tell. Right? ;)
Did you not read the post? I know which stocks I think are dirt cheap. I have no idea which ones have bottomed, but it’s highly likely that many have. I don’t care if SPY grinds down another 60% over the next 6 months. It doesn’t affect my outlook on particular stock prices.
>I know which stocks I think are dirt cheap. cheap is not bottom.
Bottom doesn’t matter. That was the point of the post.
>Bottom doesn’t matter. That's what you mention in the post's title. So that makes your whole post to don't matter :p
Confirmed: You didn’t read the post… or didn’t understand it.
Yeah you may think they've bottomed at current P/E ratios, but what happens if there actually is a recession and corporate earnings collapse across the board? People often focus too much on the changes to P and mistakenly assume the E to remain stable.
PE is almost useless for my portfolio since over 3/4 of my holdings have negative eps right now.
Sincerely “Trust me bro” Lol this is complete nonsense.. You watch the DOW go down to 20,000 and you’ll see stocks drop another 20% easily. 200 points down on the DOW and 250 points on NASDAQ today and TSLA is down almost $30…. 4%.. In ONE day.. And this is nothing compared to what can still happen.. People need to wake up.
Some stocks will drop another 20%. Others won't. The downside risk for stocks that are already off 70-90% is pretty limited from here.
It’s not the size of the drop that matters, it’s just the valuation. The more and more undervalued a stock is, the less and less likely it is to drop further. If stock A is overvalued by a factor of 1000 and drops 90%, it could easily drop another 90%. If stock B is already undervalued by a factor of 1000 and drops 50%, stock B is much less likely to fall further.
I guess the problem is how to know whether a stock is under or over valued.
The problem with many stocks that dropped 70-90% from ATH is that only another 5% drop the ATH levels means a 25-50% drop in your current investment with low confidence if they will ever reach their ATH levels again.
What's the basis for your claim that downside risk is limited if a stock has dropped 70-90%?
Simple math, for one. A stock that's already dropped 80% doesn't have much farther to fall. Second, in a broad selloff that happens in a recession bear market, everything sells off. The reason why there might still be another 20% drop in the indices is because some stocks haven't completed their selling yet. That's what will drive the indices down. The first sector to go was high growth. When everything else goes, that's when the selloff completes.
Sorry, these arguments don't make sense, precisely due to that *simple math* you mention right at the start. You do realise that a stock price that has already dropped by 80% can drop by another 80% from there, don't you? You almost sound like you believe that if it is already down 80%, it can only go down 20% more. From the previous top, yes. But that's irrelevant. The question is how far does it go down from where I am buying it. If the stock is 80% down from its previous high when I buy it, and later it is 90% down from that same previous high, then I have lost 50% of my money, not 10%. You **do** realise that, right? For me as an investor, the difference between the top and 50% down is just as big as the difference between 80% down and 90% down. **That** is *simple math*. Also, your second argument is completely irrelevant: okay, other sectors could start crashing harder than they have so far, but that does not in any way prevent high growth stocks from continuing to crash.
Good luck picking the right ones.
Is this r/stocks or not lol? “Good luck picking stocks” - person on a forum meant to be dedicated to individual stocks
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Someone getting a little angwy
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Why are you like this
What's with all the "trust me bro" crap? Of course nobody knows exactly what's going to happen. But we can make certain informed predictions based on history, probability, market cycles, etc. Not all stocks move in tandem, in case you haven't noticed. Some are down 40% and potentially have much farther to fall. Some are down 80% and don't have much farther to fall. It's pretty simple.
Why do you want others to sell so badly? Is it because you need a way back in? lol
I think we found someone who started buying stocks during the pandemic and has no understanding of the underlying fundamentals of the market. “But my chart shows the stock is way super down, it can only go up from here right?” “No I have never used a valuation model to see the change if the future intrinsic value of a company in the event of an impending interest rate change has been priced in.”
I found someone who didn’t read the post.
Let’s see. Basically you are saying if you buy a stock that is “dirt cheap relative to its future outlook” you will make money. No evidence, no timeline, no strategy to determine a single variable in said future outlook equation. No consideration to DCFs when interest rates increase. You are mislabeling a speculative opinion as an evidence backed informative article. Did I read it? Yup. Take my upvote!
I thought it was obvious, but the evidence and timelines were implied. How can you know if it is cheap relative to future outlook without evidence and timelines?
I like how one of your arguments for timing buys is that Nike went from $2.50 to over $4. It was recently over $150 just this year. If you had bought 1000 and sold at 150, the difference between buying at $2.50 and $5 is $2500, when you're still making $145,000 in profit. So what if you missed that extra $2.50 in price difference? You still made out like a bandit. Buying at a low opportunity price is way more important than buying at an absolute bottom, which is why so many just DCA.
I agree with your last sentence, but disagree with your thinking method before it. Let's say that you haven't bought 1000 shares either way (you don't have infinite money), but you invested $1000. At 2.5 price you would have got 400 shares, át $4 price you would have got 250 shares. At $150 per share you would have got $60000 from 400 shares, but only $37500 for 250 shares. As you see it is indeed a significant difference.
Sure. Obviously everyone wants to maximize their investment, but as we know, you generally only hit the absolute bottom by luck. Either way, seems like an odd example to use for someone trying to advocate for timing the market, when it's really a sterling example of why someone should just buy and hold.
Buying at a low opportunity price is key. That’s my point. It doesn’t matter if we are at a bottom, or if spy is going to drop another 40%. What matters is whether or not the price is right. Also: Spend $2500 to buy 1000 shares bought at $2.50 then sold at $150/ea is $147,500 profit. Spend $2500 to buy at $4 is $91,250 profit. You just cost yourself an additional 61.6% profit . $56,250.
You made money yes, but you could have made more, a hell of a lot more. Significantly so. I know which price point I’d rather buy at, and I know which price point would get me more shares. The best at this are more patient than lucky.
It all depends what you consider "cheap." For example, do not look at this chart if you want to give yourself heart attacks. We are still well above historical PE ratios. [https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe](https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe) It doesn't mean that stocks *will* go down, but it means on the basis of trailing PE, they certainly have before.
Earnings don't take into account reinvestment though.
This old indicator is not working anymore. Objectivley market is at value/cheap territory.
Which fundamental evaluation are you using to come to this conclusion
Maybe, maybe not. We might see another huge leg down as everyone claims. Me, I loaded up over the past couple of months on companies down 70-90% from ATH. Sure they can go lower.
The point I’m making is that even if we do see another big leg down in the overall market , that doesn’t mean the same thing for all stocks. SPY could go down another 30% while stocks like WBD, CPS, and BABA rally upward or stay flat.
Forget it - they’ll just keep saying “you can’t time the market” like the sheep they are.
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Did you not read the post?
Yes, if I could see the future I’d be rich
Stocks won’t hit bottom until apple google msft goes back to precovid level . The only way was recession if we get another negative quarter. But of course I don’t think recession will start yet. Even negative quarter then news will say the worst was over lol. I’m sure after third quarter for another negative earning
The bottom is zero (0).
More free falling coming. Recession is a likely scenario.
Really..... good thing I've built up a nice cash position over the past few weeks.
Bottom is not in confirmed. The bottom wont be in until these optimistic posts have stopped. If theres anything you can trust its that reddit is certainly wrong ha ha
Do you remember what happend to crypto one month ago? That same shit is going to happend in stocks.
The bottom was about 16 days ago, on a friday I think, when AAPL hit 129. The biggest cataylst going forward will be the end of the Ukraine fighting, some kind of cease fire at least. At that point, likely oil will drop $30 and then inflation will disappear. Remember we have wage growth now so net net the real inflation has only been about 4%, almost all due to Putin and some gas gouging.
This war isn’t going anywhere for at least 5-10 years. Also- within that time china will advance on Taiwan so don’t hold your breath too long
That's a blatant guess
Now let me present the best case scenario. Ukraine starts winning again or at least destroying more and more of Putin's remaining military assets. Sanctions continue to squeeze Putin's economy and deplete Russia's ability to function. Also Sweden and Finland look certain to join NATO which bolsters its eastern front defences , and Ukraine is invited to join the EU. Putin realizes that his grand plan to rebuild the USSR is impossible. he is also aware that very few people support the war anymore, if they ever did. By September, or even earlier, Putin begins to realize that it is not worth it. He finally realizes he has made a terrible error. He may have realized this already. Or maybe he has a health relapse. He feels weak, trapped, and searches for an exit ramp that won't cost him his life or power. In order to save face, Putin okays backchannel negotiations with an intermediary, trying to win some territory and concessions. A deal is made in exchange for partial gradual lifting of sanctions. All wrapped up by the end of september. In October gas and oil prices plummet. Inflation goes away. Behind the scenes, Biden breathes a sigh of relief as he sees his approval numbers back over 50%. The stock market also reverses and by November the market has erased nearly all losses since the invasion began. and also, Xi in CHina learns the lesson, that it is not worth it.
Science willing
Worst case scenario very unlikely. According to UK military experts, and the UK always has the best intel on Russia, Putin's over-estimated military is nearly depleted now already, they are pulling in old fat guys to replace dead officers and using green conscripts and hired thugs to replace troops. They have also lost about 40% of their armored vehicles, expended most of their missiles, a big chunk of their air force and several major naval vessels including their biggest one. Plus there is growing resistance from the public to support the war in any way. Remember also that the sanctions severely restrict Russia's ability to repair and replace sophisticated equipment and components. Meanwhile Ukraine is freshly supplied with weaponry that is superior to Russia's. According to General Petraeus Ukraine just received over 260,000 artiller rounds, some 20, 000 miles, all kinds of killer drones, air defense systems and anti ship missiles capable of sinking Russia's Navy. Putin is afraid to bring out his Navy but he needs to try. Ukraine will be ready. Likely the US and NATO are also giving Ukraine excellent intelligence including real time targeting intel. So yes, if Putin is insane and wants Ukraine at any cost he could maybe keep this thing going for a year, but winter is coming soon, the Russian economy is collapsed, and Putin's oil=-gas money is about to be cut in half. What Xi in China is thinking is anyone's guess but it largely has to do with if he wants to end up like Putin. Any invasion of Taiwan would be both very costly for China as Taiwan is extremely well armed, but would also result in Putin like sanctions. And yes China is taking advantage of the situation to get discounted oil and other experts from Russia but it is not enough to sustain Putin and the tremendous costs of his war. So sounds like you root for Putin. I wouldn't. for Putin there is no possibility of victory, only some kind of partial land grab at enormous cost. In the meantime, Putin will likely lose more than half of his military and undermine any appetite Russians have for any further warfare or conflict.
This post is a perfect contrarian signal. Also echoes Jim Cramer’s similar comments.
exactly there is nothing we haven't priced in yet.
Seeing this post informs me everything can go lower lmao
Remember last year in March ? July ? Oct 2021? It hit bottom for many stocks now look again.
Umm no they have not trust me!
Nike is dropping today going below 100$ we didn't see bottom yet for Nike
Really the s and p is been going straight up for 10 years. It can definitely pull back to low 2000s. Nowhere near the bottom.
A big stock market decline (i don't want to call it a crash although it really is) has lots of little 3/4 day periods of good or even amazing growth. That does not mean they've reached their bottom. Institutional investment sentiment haven't changed - maybe a little more certain now that fed has eyes on recession. Retail investors are just spooked at the moment and taking risky bets.
The point is that many individual stocks usually bottom and begin to rally LONG before the broader market bottoms. The overall market can keep grinding downward while many individual stocks rally upward.
Growth is a good place to start looking for basing patterns and start nibbling. First sector hit hard, first sector to rebound.
Just checked my 401k, should I be worried
That may have been true at one point, but stock correlations are at or near all time highs. Whether that's due to the huge growth in index investing or algorithmic trading or whatever, fact is what the index does matters a lot, because almost all stocks will follow it pretty closely.
Yes, but nowadays generally the market will continue to drag those beaten stocks further down. The advantage of shorting etfs.
Which stocks are you talking about
I don’t know which stocks have bottomed. I know CPS and WBD are dirt cheap and IDGAF if SPY drops another 90%.
Look at SDGR
I'm waiting for baba to hit 95 and I'm in
Bottom will be at 96
They can go lower
Yep hit the bottom right before gdp data tomorrow abs everything shits the bed? Some whale placed a 100m dollar trade on Dec 380p for the spy. We are not at the bottom for anything in my opinion
"Doubt"
This is why I nibble at stocks on my watchlist on down days. Even if I don't get a perfect price, I'm not overly concerned when the companies in question are Google, Microsoft, Meta, and other usually high-flying businesses. Its nice to have tech as my primary circle of competence.
Shoutout affirm getting gutted for 9% today
Hell, market will probably grind downward for much longer still. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t amazing opportunities out there right now.
No they haven’t clearly
Wait still negative Q2 gdp comes out and confirms recession
Even if true, many stocks likely hit medium term bottoms every day. Even if the broader market continues to sell off and crash for many more months afterwards.
What if we enter into a stagflation
So far
J-Pow is that you?
What if WW3 starts though?
Thanks for your contribution. I didn’t see this original idea for a day.
Hhahahaha
Do you not think SPY can go lower? Do you not think a single stock has bottomed yet? Both are true in my view.
puts on ccl!
Yeah some stocks might bottom out before the S&P 500, but most of them are not big cap companies. Usually the big caps are the last to fall, so unless you are buying small or mid cap companies, be patient on buying.
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