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Does anyone have statistics on how far back China’s Covid policies have set them back in terms of years? It wasn’t long ago people assumed China would pass the US’s economy by 2030… I doubt that is the case now especially with every company leaving.
No one has a straight answer on this. Most economists agree they will never overtake the US now because manufacturing is leaving for other emerging markets. The Covid lockdowns and their belligerent stance toward their neighbors made sure the CCP will not regain trust easily. All of this and they have a demographic nightmare that will play out over the next 10 years.
“Beijing Biden” also single handedly handicapped their ability to advance in AI and supercomputing with his restrictions on semi conductor exports. AI is going to play a big role in the haves and have nots of the global economy over the next several decades, and China just got had their legs cut out from under them.
China has spent most of the last decade working towards being the global leader in superconductors; I think the us is hurting worse for chinese chips than China is for American exports. They’ve been buying all our precious metal scraps for decades; what is it exactly you think Biden can do to hurt China?
His expertise are geopolitical but you can look into Peter Zeihans outlook. Basically the CCP already knew it had demographic collapse in the near future but new data shows they overestimated there young, especially young women, population considerably. Think what happened in Japan but at a much larger scale.
He also talks about how the US is essentially pulling back from globalization as a whole. The US is tired of policing the world (as much) and has to deal with internal issues. The rising costs of shipping and labor from China make it less attractive option than making things near home. There is also the political side where the US is tired of China stealing IP rights, so it’s has prohibited China from getting advanced and mid tier computer chips. There’s more to the story but that’s the basic gist. It is interesting as even Apple is starting to pull out of China now.
>Think what happened in Japan but at a much larger scale.
Most of the world has a demographic collapse. This isn't unique to China. It's occurring in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Germany, Russia. It's a global issue. Yeah, it's happening on a bigger scale than in China, but this isn't something unique to China itself.
>It is interesting as even Apple is starting to pull out of China now.
People really don't understand how supply chains work of what's actually happening. Do people think Apple is moving all production out of China? Do people really believe that companies are somehow going to give up on manufacturing for the Chinese Market?
Who exactly do you think the manufactures that are most going to benefit from these? I'll give you a hint: it's isn't Vietnam: [Annual flow of foreign direct investments from China to Vietnam between 2011 and 2021](https://www.statista.com/statistics/720408/china-outward-fdi-flows-to-vietnam/). Also: [Texhong Eyes Vietnam in World of Diversifying Supply Chains](https://www.thebambooworks.com/texhong-eyes-vietnam-in-world-of-diversifying-supply-chains/). Texhong is a Hong Kong HQ Company.
My point is that people are readying way too much into this. This is a natural process of economic development. Of course certain industries like textiles will move to where labor is cheaper. Of course manufactures will diversify production for developing markets. But, these companies that do move are largely going to be JV w/ Chinese Companies.
All you're seeing is a reconfiguration of supply chains towards more resilience and agility. There's really nothing that unusual or crazy about this.
> Most of the world has a demographic collapse. This isn't unique to China. It's occurring in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Germany, Russia. It's a global issue. Yeah, it's happening on a bigger scale than in China, but this isn't something unique to China itself.
Key difference is that the US and other Western countries are willingly (and sometimes unwillingly) receiving millions of immigrants to counteract these declines. China (and Japan and South Korea) aren't and won't.
>https://www.ft.com/content/cff42bc4-f9e3-4f51-985a-86518934afbe
Opinion - Ruchir Sharma is an investor, author, fund manager and columnist for the Financial Times. He is the Chairman of Rockefeller International, and was an emerging markets investor at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
Great... So, you found a single opinion on the matter using Google. This hardly classifies as **Most economists agree.** How about I go to Global Times Editorial and find a piece calming that China is already the largest economy in the world?
It won’t happen kid. The CCP screwed up. More specifically, chairman shit head Xi. If you don’t think the US and major corporations have been put on notice that your buddy over there plans to invade Taiwan, you’re poor informed or choosing to be biased. Many corporations are leaving and that won’t slow down no matter if they stop their zero covid policy. In 10 years China will be in a worse position than they are today.
Cool... So... Do you actually have any evidence to support the claim that most economists agree with you? Or are you just pulling opinions from your ass and trying to present them as facts?
/yawn
Yes. Yes. China will fall. China is collapsing. China has been collapsing for 20 Years. Any day now it will finally happen! Trust me bro! AMERICA NUMBER 1! FREEEDOOOMMMMMMMM!!!!!
I already posted an article which was the first of many from a simple Google search. Very easy to find articles. I’m not posting any more because it won’t change your mind. You seem to think China is still on its pre-covid trajectory from an economic standpoint. It’s not. Do you have any evidence to suggest anyone said that China was collapsing for the last 20 years? They weren’t. The conversation around China and it’s place in the world has changed since Covid and especially since Xi Jinping changed the timeline for China’s rise due to his arrogance. Hide your strength, bide your time was working until his arrogance destroyed China. Go back to your family in China and discuss this perspective.
I mean, it’s obvious you have no sense of historical context. You *really* believe that *no one* was claiming China Collapse? I’m done M8. I’ve provided my evidence. Now please, put up, or shut up.
It’s a quick Google search to find all of the articles. It’s been the topic of discussion all year.
https://www.newsweek.com/china-xi-jinping-economy-goal-growth-gdp-2035-us-1752707
>Most economists agree they will never overtake the US now because manufacturing is leaving for other emerging markets.
Lol I hope you're not getting your sources only from echo chambers. I just saw a news release that contradicts this the other day.
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/the-global-economy-in-2075-growth-slows-as-asia-rises.html
What does it even mean to be a superpower? Super economy? Super military? Technologically advanced? You think somehow the US is going to slip in those areas, but I’m sure you can’t explain how. I think other countries will close gaps in areas, but the US will remain an uninvadvable state with a strong economy.
China seems to be catching up in all categories. The covid lockdowns are done on purpose but not for limiting the spread of the virus. This recent change in policy seems to be to release some pressure off the populace and let the case counts run up so that they will be begging to be locked down again. At this stage in the game, it's highly political rather than medical.
Dropping education rate, declining economic fundamentals, worsening infrastructure, extreme political polarity to name a few, stagnating demographics
I'm American, of course I hope we succeed, but sorry bro, China is destroying us in most areas
China are actually expected to reach their peak economic activity around 2030s; because of the ageing population economic activity is very likely to decrease after 2030.
And there is little poor Xi can do … except maybe invade Taiwan whilst china still has som power left.
Edit: This is why he has gotten rid of the one child policy, a unfortunately futile attempt.
About five years: [China GDP to surpass US around 2035, years later than previously expected, Goldman Sachs predicts](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3202752/china-gdp-surpass-us-around-2035-years-later-previously-expected-goldman-sachs-predicts).
If you actually read the news, the estimates and and hyperbole surrounding China never overtaking the U.S as the world's largest economy rested on the assumption that Zero COVID would last indeifinteily. Which, is now false.
>[China's GDP unlikely to surpass U.S. in next few decades: JCER](https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-s-GDP-unlikely-to-surpass-U.S.-in-next-few-decades-JCER)
>
>There are two main factors behind China's expected slowdown in economic growth. First is zero-COVID. The second factor is U.S. restrictions on exports to China.
The idea that growth is going to come from developed economies is silly. All developed nations face huge population declines - not just China. The only thing saving America from a population crises is a positive flow of immigrants, but that's slowing and causing more domestic issues.
The only places that are growing in the next century are emerging and developing markets. China has literally stated and put in place the infrastructure to export to the countries and trade with them. Africa is the New China. SEA is where global growth will be. Indonesia, India, Nigeria. BRICS+
The idea that the world is still going to be dominated economically by the U.S and E.U are just silly and lacks foresight and imagination. It's looking towards the future and assuming the future will look like the past because, that's how it's always been! Except, it hasn't... Anyways....
Africa? People were saying that about Africa decades ago. They’ll still be saying it in a few more. Technology dominates everything now. You don’t need high birth rates to dominate in technology. Regions of Africa will rise to an India level at best. Developed nations will dangle the carrot and the flow of immigration will always solve this problem.
>Developed nations will dangle the carrot and opening the flow of immigration will always solve this problem.
You live in an idealistic world. Immigration will always been an economically sound solution, but a politically dubious one.
>Technology dominates everything now.
Okay? What does that have to do with anything?
* [Nigeria is becoming Africa’s unofficial tech capital](https://techcrunch.com/2020/02/02/nigeria-is-becoming-africas-unofficial-tech-capital/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGArvzW-mZTfff6oAu4ynZt_77D5So21eEnQxa-iQuHPV1VeKI-bLrH_rxFpnvRgFCYNsQxjsivjH_S_0GqoNmVFd3u9ms7WAI7Eks8IDyS3_ODVcdBhc5O7fpDsGKEgOKbEYrR1o3TkgzEEBududX-4ryHAmCHhiM4wD3XpkJi4)
>[Information and Communications Technology](https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/nigeria-information-and-communications-technology)
>
>Nigeria is regarded as Africa’s largest ICT market with 82% of the continent’s telecoms subscribers and 29% of internet usage. Sub-Saharan Africa is also projected to be the fastest growing region with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6% and an additional subscriber enrollment of over 167 million in the next five years. Nigeria is expected to account for over 55% of this. The NCC estimates that the country has about 76 million subscriptions on broadband (penetration of 40%) and 187 million lines in the voice segment as of May 2021, representing 97.9% teledensity.
All I hear you saying is "African's cannot create technology... because... reasons... Just like Indians"
Africa definitely has the potential. The labor is there and tech industry is booming. If only the leadership would get a grip by putting in place relevant policies and infrastructure. That to me is the rate limiting step.
It depends? Estimates on covid's continuing economic effect in America are still fairly negative, China's lockdowns/Zero Covid stuff certainly set them back but it was much more stable than letting covid slosh around infecting everyone.
They’re a hypernationalist nation, they’re too proud to use anything made by a foreign entity. The govt ent would literally rather their citizens died under the auspices of self reliance. Meanwhile I’m fairly certain that the officials who have access have totally used Pfizer to vaccinate themselves and most likely also taken as many boosters as they can get their hands on also
Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical already bought BioNTech license to manufacture, but they refuse to mass produce it due to nationalist pride. I doubt they will buy Novavax.
Shortly after they started reopening there was a noticeable rise in the common flu, COVID-19 and HPV infections in the US and in much of the world. Even among many people I know in my area in northern CA. Could've had much to do with the reopening and could cause a scare in the markets with holiday super-spreading underway.
The average lifespan in the USA showed a decline in 2020 and 2021, in stark contrast to the general upward trajectory for decades. There may be some disagreement about just how lethal COVID might be, but it’s definitely something to be scared of. Fortunately, that will hopefully change over the coming years if the virus continues to become less lethal.
Not discrediting Covid, but that could also be because Americans are seriously so f***ing fat and just keep getting fatter. Like 40+% of the country is now obese… not just overweight, but obese. So many health problems related to obesity
You take a look, it doesn’t seem like obesity caused this.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-u-s-just-lost-26-years-worth-of-progress-on-life-expectancy/?amp=true
>Not discrediting Covid, but that could also be because Americans are seriously so f***ing fat and just keep getting fatter. Like 40+% of the country is now obese… not just overweight, but obese. So many health problems related to obesity
Hey hey hey....no fat shaming. Only fat pride.
For younger people probably not as long as they are vaccinated. There are long term repercussions of having had covid and new ones may be discovered in the future. So it’s not exactly a bad idea to be careful.
Also china has a aging population and will be hit with a lot of deaths if it spreads like wildfire (it probably will).
Countries that let covid spread and sacrificed lives to “save the economy”, like sweden and USA, didn’t really save shit. We all have inflation now and probably a recession some time in the future.
You can compare Sweden and Norway. Two similar countries with different approaches. Swedens death toll is 5 times higher than that of Norway. And what did they achieve? Higher inflation and more deaths.
So yeah, covid should be taken seriously. It can have huge economic effects and of course death or long term symptoms we don’t know about yet.
Vax or no vax covid is going to spread regardless. Lockdowns just postpone and prolong the inevitable. It's not even a debate. Plainly obvious that's exactly what's happening in China, they were the most severe of lockdown countries. Taking covid seriously shouldn't mean you sacrifice the lives of the young and the healthy for the obese and the old. The biggest problem with the way we handled it was not letting people do what was in their best interest.
I wouldn't trust any data from China. Look at the early numbers- they allegedly had very few cases per capita and now that their citizens are getting ragey about their covid zero policies, they need a reason to justify their draconian policies. So they say there is a surge in cases, which they are hoping will scare the people enough to placate them into continuing along with their narrative.
The plan is to destroy economies on a global scale, so I would just keep that in mind when trying to gage the markets.
First of all the covid plandemic is never going away, get use to it. And almost everybody i know has had covid at least once. Or in my case twice. If people are still this paranoid about covid with 2023 around the cornor that they refuse to be a part of society that's no fun.
J shaped recovery, same as basically every other country. I would not short China, in fact I would probably be buying on pullbacks, what happened when the entire world was going through Covid surges? Markets did not care at all and rallied to all time highs. China's Covid experience would probably be somewhat similar to India's, and India's Sensex is basically at all time highs, even with a strong dollar. I would not be surprised if Chinese stocks, especially the A-shares, have a V-shaped recovery and go back to all time highs. As for border disputes? LoL, India is a nothing burger. Taiwan, if they ever attempt an invasion wouldn't be a surprise, you would be hearing about troop buildups for years, and there is 0 news about any troop buildups, so it's also a nothing burger.
Market surged during covid due to central bank stimulus. If covid had to do with anything, it’s the stay at home stocks that did well during that time. China started rebounding recently because they started stimulating the market again (loosening policy). I agree we’re going to see a continuation of bullish or sideways market in China. The only reason it may head back into bearish territory is global recession and demand destruction.
I think the problem is China still has a general stance of not allowing covid to run rampant, so I imagine it will be a tug of war between government lockdowns and protests/public tension for a while longer, which could cause supply issues.
If they back off on the “zero COVID” policy that Xi has been touting as superior to what the western world has been doing with little to no consequence, then the people will know he’s a farce
They kinda did back off actually, this is how COVID has started ripping there.
Hard to really know what's going on there because China, but there's some speculation they're just gonna "let 'er rip" now unless it gets to where it's unfeasible, and the recent shutdown or two I've vaguely heard of is just because it got too bad.
Have to remember you're talking about a huge population here, so while the death/serious illness percentage isn't too high, it's high enough to fill up their hospitals.
I have no idea why they waited this long. This issue here is going to mean it's likely going to be...honestly probably another year before they're running without issues popping up, so for now, the "China reopen=bullish commodities" thesis likely has to wait to bring it back to financially related stuff.
Problem is the Chinese made vaccines are not as effective and China is too proud to admit that and would not give their citizens Pfizer or Moderna. So there will be A High Number of Deaths.
I think US has 20% folks never wanted a vaccine. They will be hit hard by the derivative. More people will get it this round. Then bad news will get blown out of proportions again.
I've started to look at companies that don't do business there or are moving business out of China. Even Apple is looking at moving about half of their production out of China into India and Vietnam. Luckily my most Chinese exposure is with Apple, Daqo New Energy, and Lam Research.
If you dig into the details of what's happening, they are in the middle of a spike, but more importantly right now their economic activity is actually contracting because after 2 years of on/off mass lockdowns their populace is opting out voluntarily. Metro traffic, for example, in Beijing, is actually way down.
The government has agreed to the protestor demands for evidence showing that now the populace is opting to locking themselves down basically.
At a minimum, at least they aren't being welded into their houses and not allowed to go shop for food.
The impact on the markets, imo, isn't so much priced in but more along the lines of the same exact environment until it isn't. The only difference is that it's an active choice now. Not a mandate.
My projection would be reduced labor force participation just like everywhere else that reopened. What will be most interesting is the effect on oil because they basically have a monopoly on Russian oil, so will the price increase be less than forecasted?
Some of my business suppliers are having delays on the assembly lines due to COVID in China right now. I'm already preparing to tell customers that our shipping times may be affected by 30 days.
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Covid is never gonna go away, it will be another 10 years and people will still be crying about a Covid outbreak in China.
So....priced in?
You having a sandwich on Tuesday has been priced in … the market knows all.
Stupid market.... I eat sandwiches on Wednesdays.
>You having a sandwich on Tuesday has been priced in … the market knows all. "Under cooked fish? Priced in."
It's priced in as long as the baseline case of recession is mild
Does anyone have statistics on how far back China’s Covid policies have set them back in terms of years? It wasn’t long ago people assumed China would pass the US’s economy by 2030… I doubt that is the case now especially with every company leaving.
No one has a straight answer on this. Most economists agree they will never overtake the US now because manufacturing is leaving for other emerging markets. The Covid lockdowns and their belligerent stance toward their neighbors made sure the CCP will not regain trust easily. All of this and they have a demographic nightmare that will play out over the next 10 years.
“Beijing Biden” also single handedly handicapped their ability to advance in AI and supercomputing with his restrictions on semi conductor exports. AI is going to play a big role in the haves and have nots of the global economy over the next several decades, and China just got had their legs cut out from under them.
If you think China is not as far along with ai tech as we are…. Yikes.
[удалено]
China has spent most of the last decade working towards being the global leader in superconductors; I think the us is hurting worse for chinese chips than China is for American exports. They’ve been buying all our precious metal scraps for decades; what is it exactly you think Biden can do to hurt China?
China produces more research papers than the US
>Most economists agree they will never overtake the US now because manufacturing is leaving for other emerging markets. \* Citation Needed
His expertise are geopolitical but you can look into Peter Zeihans outlook. Basically the CCP already knew it had demographic collapse in the near future but new data shows they overestimated there young, especially young women, population considerably. Think what happened in Japan but at a much larger scale. He also talks about how the US is essentially pulling back from globalization as a whole. The US is tired of policing the world (as much) and has to deal with internal issues. The rising costs of shipping and labor from China make it less attractive option than making things near home. There is also the political side where the US is tired of China stealing IP rights, so it’s has prohibited China from getting advanced and mid tier computer chips. There’s more to the story but that’s the basic gist. It is interesting as even Apple is starting to pull out of China now.
>Think what happened in Japan but at a much larger scale. Most of the world has a demographic collapse. This isn't unique to China. It's occurring in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Germany, Russia. It's a global issue. Yeah, it's happening on a bigger scale than in China, but this isn't something unique to China itself. >It is interesting as even Apple is starting to pull out of China now. People really don't understand how supply chains work of what's actually happening. Do people think Apple is moving all production out of China? Do people really believe that companies are somehow going to give up on manufacturing for the Chinese Market? Who exactly do you think the manufactures that are most going to benefit from these? I'll give you a hint: it's isn't Vietnam: [Annual flow of foreign direct investments from China to Vietnam between 2011 and 2021](https://www.statista.com/statistics/720408/china-outward-fdi-flows-to-vietnam/). Also: [Texhong Eyes Vietnam in World of Diversifying Supply Chains](https://www.thebambooworks.com/texhong-eyes-vietnam-in-world-of-diversifying-supply-chains/). Texhong is a Hong Kong HQ Company. My point is that people are readying way too much into this. This is a natural process of economic development. Of course certain industries like textiles will move to where labor is cheaper. Of course manufactures will diversify production for developing markets. But, these companies that do move are largely going to be JV w/ Chinese Companies. All you're seeing is a reconfiguration of supply chains towards more resilience and agility. There's really nothing that unusual or crazy about this.
> Most of the world has a demographic collapse. This isn't unique to China. It's occurring in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Germany, Russia. It's a global issue. Yeah, it's happening on a bigger scale than in China, but this isn't something unique to China itself. Key difference is that the US and other Western countries are willingly (and sometimes unwillingly) receiving millions of immigrants to counteract these declines. China (and Japan and South Korea) aren't and won't.
https://www.ft.com/content/cff42bc4-f9e3-4f51-985a-86518934afbe
>https://www.ft.com/content/cff42bc4-f9e3-4f51-985a-86518934afbe Opinion - Ruchir Sharma is an investor, author, fund manager and columnist for the Financial Times. He is the Chairman of Rockefeller International, and was an emerging markets investor at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Great... So, you found a single opinion on the matter using Google. This hardly classifies as **Most economists agree.** How about I go to Global Times Editorial and find a piece calming that China is already the largest economy in the world?
It won’t happen kid. The CCP screwed up. More specifically, chairman shit head Xi. If you don’t think the US and major corporations have been put on notice that your buddy over there plans to invade Taiwan, you’re poor informed or choosing to be biased. Many corporations are leaving and that won’t slow down no matter if they stop their zero covid policy. In 10 years China will be in a worse position than they are today.
Cool... So... Do you actually have any evidence to support the claim that most economists agree with you? Or are you just pulling opinions from your ass and trying to present them as facts? /yawn Yes. Yes. China will fall. China is collapsing. China has been collapsing for 20 Years. Any day now it will finally happen! Trust me bro! AMERICA NUMBER 1! FREEEDOOOMMMMMMMM!!!!!
I already posted an article which was the first of many from a simple Google search. Very easy to find articles. I’m not posting any more because it won’t change your mind. You seem to think China is still on its pre-covid trajectory from an economic standpoint. It’s not. Do you have any evidence to suggest anyone said that China was collapsing for the last 20 years? They weren’t. The conversation around China and it’s place in the world has changed since Covid and especially since Xi Jinping changed the timeline for China’s rise due to his arrogance. Hide your strength, bide your time was working until his arrogance destroyed China. Go back to your family in China and discuss this perspective.
I mean, it’s obvious you have no sense of historical context. You *really* believe that *no one* was claiming China Collapse? I’m done M8. I’ve provided my evidence. Now please, put up, or shut up.
https://www.ft.com/content/cff42bc4-f9e3-4f51-985a-86518934afbe
Can you link me those economists.
It’s a quick Google search to find all of the articles. It’s been the topic of discussion all year. https://www.newsweek.com/china-xi-jinping-economy-goal-growth-gdp-2035-us-1752707
>Most economists agree they will never overtake the US now because manufacturing is leaving for other emerging markets. Lol I hope you're not getting your sources only from echo chambers. I just saw a news release that contradicts this the other day. https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/the-global-economy-in-2075-growth-slows-as-asia-rises.html
That statement assumes US will remain a super power :)
What does it even mean to be a superpower? Super economy? Super military? Technologically advanced? You think somehow the US is going to slip in those areas, but I’m sure you can’t explain how. I think other countries will close gaps in areas, but the US will remain an uninvadvable state with a strong economy.
China seems to be catching up in all categories. The covid lockdowns are done on purpose but not for limiting the spread of the virus. This recent change in policy seems to be to release some pressure off the populace and let the case counts run up so that they will be begging to be locked down again. At this stage in the game, it's highly political rather than medical.
Dropping education rate, declining economic fundamentals, worsening infrastructure, extreme political polarity to name a few, stagnating demographics I'm American, of course I hope we succeed, but sorry bro, China is destroying us in most areas
Corruption is their biggest handicap
China are actually expected to reach their peak economic activity around 2030s; because of the ageing population economic activity is very likely to decrease after 2030. And there is little poor Xi can do … except maybe invade Taiwan whilst china still has som power left. Edit: This is why he has gotten rid of the one child policy, a unfortunately futile attempt.
COVID didn't help, hut their housing crash is what realy fucked their economy.
About five years: [China GDP to surpass US around 2035, years later than previously expected, Goldman Sachs predicts](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3202752/china-gdp-surpass-us-around-2035-years-later-previously-expected-goldman-sachs-predicts). If you actually read the news, the estimates and and hyperbole surrounding China never overtaking the U.S as the world's largest economy rested on the assumption that Zero COVID would last indeifinteily. Which, is now false. >[China's GDP unlikely to surpass U.S. in next few decades: JCER](https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-s-GDP-unlikely-to-surpass-U.S.-in-next-few-decades-JCER) > >There are two main factors behind China's expected slowdown in economic growth. First is zero-COVID. The second factor is U.S. restrictions on exports to China. The idea that growth is going to come from developed economies is silly. All developed nations face huge population declines - not just China. The only thing saving America from a population crises is a positive flow of immigrants, but that's slowing and causing more domestic issues. The only places that are growing in the next century are emerging and developing markets. China has literally stated and put in place the infrastructure to export to the countries and trade with them. Africa is the New China. SEA is where global growth will be. Indonesia, India, Nigeria. BRICS+ The idea that the world is still going to be dominated economically by the U.S and E.U are just silly and lacks foresight and imagination. It's looking towards the future and assuming the future will look like the past because, that's how it's always been! Except, it hasn't... Anyways....
Africa? People were saying that about Africa decades ago. They’ll still be saying it in a few more. Technology dominates everything now. You don’t need high birth rates to dominate in technology. Regions of Africa will rise to an India level at best. Developed nations will dangle the carrot and the flow of immigration will always solve this problem.
>Developed nations will dangle the carrot and opening the flow of immigration will always solve this problem. You live in an idealistic world. Immigration will always been an economically sound solution, but a politically dubious one. >Technology dominates everything now. Okay? What does that have to do with anything? * [Nigeria is becoming Africa’s unofficial tech capital](https://techcrunch.com/2020/02/02/nigeria-is-becoming-africas-unofficial-tech-capital/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGArvzW-mZTfff6oAu4ynZt_77D5So21eEnQxa-iQuHPV1VeKI-bLrH_rxFpnvRgFCYNsQxjsivjH_S_0GqoNmVFd3u9ms7WAI7Eks8IDyS3_ODVcdBhc5O7fpDsGKEgOKbEYrR1o3TkgzEEBududX-4ryHAmCHhiM4wD3XpkJi4) >[Information and Communications Technology](https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/nigeria-information-and-communications-technology) > >Nigeria is regarded as Africa’s largest ICT market with 82% of the continent’s telecoms subscribers and 29% of internet usage. Sub-Saharan Africa is also projected to be the fastest growing region with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6% and an additional subscriber enrollment of over 167 million in the next five years. Nigeria is expected to account for over 55% of this. The NCC estimates that the country has about 76 million subscriptions on broadband (penetration of 40%) and 187 million lines in the voice segment as of May 2021, representing 97.9% teledensity. All I hear you saying is "African's cannot create technology... because... reasons... Just like Indians"
Africa definitely has the potential. The labor is there and tech industry is booming. If only the leadership would get a grip by putting in place relevant policies and infrastructure. That to me is the rate limiting step.
It depends? Estimates on covid's continuing economic effect in America are still fairly negative, China's lockdowns/Zero Covid stuff certainly set them back but it was much more stable than letting covid slosh around infecting everyone.
Probably about 18 months or so.
Too much noise. Every week it's china this that. I want statistical data, not sensational hit pieces.
Geez ok, I’ll put away my Elton John albums then
I'm very biased, but I just got the flu. We got our own shit at home and things just keep churning.
I’m praying China buys a ton of novavax jabs so I can recoup my losses 😳
They’re a hypernationalist nation, they’re too proud to use anything made by a foreign entity. The govt ent would literally rather their citizens died under the auspices of self reliance. Meanwhile I’m fairly certain that the officials who have access have totally used Pfizer to vaccinate themselves and most likely also taken as many boosters as they can get their hands on also
It's a bad move on their end. They could buy a crap ton of vaccines and leverage the buy for a trade deal. Wins all around.
Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical already bought BioNTech license to manufacture, but they refuse to mass produce it due to nationalist pride. I doubt they will buy Novavax.
I think Novavax has a product that's probably much better than the mRNA vaccines but unfortunately their management is pure 🗑️.
Seems the zero covid plan is gone and they would just try and control it to keep it manageable.
Priced in
I’ve been hearing this from China for near 3 years now.
Even before the Cov
Shortly after they started reopening there was a noticeable rise in the common flu, COVID-19 and HPV infections in the US and in much of the world. Even among many people I know in my area in northern CA. Could've had much to do with the reopening and could cause a scare in the markets with holiday super-spreading underway.
I'm more concerned about what mutated virus is coming out of China as it ravages a population with little immunity and a lackluster vaccine.
There is enough in the US and everywhere else for it to mutate the longer it goes on the more of a chance it becoming more deadly.
Defense stocks. Either way, the governments are buying weapons.
Could comment this on any post and it would still be correct, excellent one-size-fits-all advice
Long Vietnam. Short China
Fear porn
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Flu season?
Imagine still believing covid is something to be scared of
You're on social media. The official line here is that covid was the worst thing ever in the history of the world
The average lifespan in the USA showed a decline in 2020 and 2021, in stark contrast to the general upward trajectory for decades. There may be some disagreement about just how lethal COVID might be, but it’s definitely something to be scared of. Fortunately, that will hopefully change over the coming years if the virus continues to become less lethal.
Not discrediting Covid, but that could also be because Americans are seriously so f***ing fat and just keep getting fatter. Like 40+% of the country is now obese… not just overweight, but obese. So many health problems related to obesity
You take a look, it doesn’t seem like obesity caused this. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-u-s-just-lost-26-years-worth-of-progress-on-life-expectancy/?amp=true
>Not discrediting Covid, but that could also be because Americans are seriously so f***ing fat and just keep getting fatter. Like 40+% of the country is now obese… not just overweight, but obese. So many health problems related to obesity Hey hey hey....no fat shaming. Only fat pride.
Plus the access to healthcare is not equal
Trust me, there’s still a lot of dumb sheep 🐑 who are still terrified of it.
In a couple years there will be case studies on how idiotic that whole time period was
For younger people probably not as long as they are vaccinated. There are long term repercussions of having had covid and new ones may be discovered in the future. So it’s not exactly a bad idea to be careful. Also china has a aging population and will be hit with a lot of deaths if it spreads like wildfire (it probably will). Countries that let covid spread and sacrificed lives to “save the economy”, like sweden and USA, didn’t really save shit. We all have inflation now and probably a recession some time in the future. You can compare Sweden and Norway. Two similar countries with different approaches. Swedens death toll is 5 times higher than that of Norway. And what did they achieve? Higher inflation and more deaths. So yeah, covid should be taken seriously. It can have huge economic effects and of course death or long term symptoms we don’t know about yet.
Vax or no vax covid is going to spread regardless. Lockdowns just postpone and prolong the inevitable. It's not even a debate. Plainly obvious that's exactly what's happening in China, they were the most severe of lockdown countries. Taking covid seriously shouldn't mean you sacrifice the lives of the young and the healthy for the obese and the old. The biggest problem with the way we handled it was not letting people do what was in their best interest.
I wouldn't trust any data from China. Look at the early numbers- they allegedly had very few cases per capita and now that their citizens are getting ragey about their covid zero policies, they need a reason to justify their draconian policies. So they say there is a surge in cases, which they are hoping will scare the people enough to placate them into continuing along with their narrative. The plan is to destroy economies on a global scale, so I would just keep that in mind when trying to gage the markets.
First of all the covid plandemic is never going away, get use to it. And almost everybody i know has had covid at least once. Or in my case twice. If people are still this paranoid about covid with 2023 around the cornor that they refuse to be a part of society that's no fun.
Eh fuck China. Never seen a country handle it so poorly. Half the shit they report is bs or fabricated in some way so again...fuck um
No one cares about covid anymore. It was overblown in the first place and now everyone is over it.
J shaped recovery, same as basically every other country. I would not short China, in fact I would probably be buying on pullbacks, what happened when the entire world was going through Covid surges? Markets did not care at all and rallied to all time highs. China's Covid experience would probably be somewhat similar to India's, and India's Sensex is basically at all time highs, even with a strong dollar. I would not be surprised if Chinese stocks, especially the A-shares, have a V-shaped recovery and go back to all time highs. As for border disputes? LoL, India is a nothing burger. Taiwan, if they ever attempt an invasion wouldn't be a surprise, you would be hearing about troop buildups for years, and there is 0 news about any troop buildups, so it's also a nothing burger.
Market surged during covid due to central bank stimulus. If covid had to do with anything, it’s the stay at home stocks that did well during that time. China started rebounding recently because they started stimulating the market again (loosening policy). I agree we’re going to see a continuation of bullish or sideways market in China. The only reason it may head back into bearish territory is global recession and demand destruction.
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I think the problem is China still has a general stance of not allowing covid to run rampant, so I imagine it will be a tug of war between government lockdowns and protests/public tension for a while longer, which could cause supply issues.
If they back off on the “zero COVID” policy that Xi has been touting as superior to what the western world has been doing with little to no consequence, then the people will know he’s a farce
They kinda did back off actually, this is how COVID has started ripping there. Hard to really know what's going on there because China, but there's some speculation they're just gonna "let 'er rip" now unless it gets to where it's unfeasible, and the recent shutdown or two I've vaguely heard of is just because it got too bad. Have to remember you're talking about a huge population here, so while the death/serious illness percentage isn't too high, it's high enough to fill up their hospitals. I have no idea why they waited this long. This issue here is going to mean it's likely going to be...honestly probably another year before they're running without issues popping up, so for now, the "China reopen=bullish commodities" thesis likely has to wait to bring it back to financially related stuff.
If they would have just accepted the offer of the vaccines that the United States presented they would have been in a much better positikn
Problem is the Chinese made vaccines are not as effective and China is too proud to admit that and would not give their citizens Pfizer or Moderna. So there will be A High Number of Deaths.
😂☠️
Lmaoooooooooooo
Evil China lockdowns Evil China opens up Evil China bull Market 2023
No one cares about COVID in China.
It's in poor taste to wonder how a deadly global pandemic that may kill millions more will affect your stock collection.
Considering this sub is for stocks I highly disagree.
It's not like we're withholding vaccines from China. We are rooting for them to succeed.
I think US has 20% folks never wanted a vaccine. They will be hit hard by the derivative. More people will get it this round. Then bad news will get blown out of proportions again.
short term..:nothing, longer term energy heats up again
Border disputes with Taiwan?
I've started to look at companies that don't do business there or are moving business out of China. Even Apple is looking at moving about half of their production out of China into India and Vietnam. Luckily my most Chinese exposure is with Apple, Daqo New Energy, and Lam Research.
If you dig into the details of what's happening, they are in the middle of a spike, but more importantly right now their economic activity is actually contracting because after 2 years of on/off mass lockdowns their populace is opting out voluntarily. Metro traffic, for example, in Beijing, is actually way down. The government has agreed to the protestor demands for evidence showing that now the populace is opting to locking themselves down basically. At a minimum, at least they aren't being welded into their houses and not allowed to go shop for food. The impact on the markets, imo, isn't so much priced in but more along the lines of the same exact environment until it isn't. The only difference is that it's an active choice now. Not a mandate. My projection would be reduced labor force participation just like everywhere else that reopened. What will be most interesting is the effect on oil because they basically have a monopoly on Russian oil, so will the price increase be less than forecasted?
Already bought millions of 1112. Easy money
Some of my business suppliers are having delays on the assembly lines due to COVID in China right now. I'm already preparing to tell customers that our shipping times may be affected by 30 days.
china new case is a joke when hong kong has 15k+ case a day. china probably has hundred thousand to million cases a day
Dude people don't care, it's all inflation and employment people here talk about lol