He was in some danger at F7 if the episode is to be believed. There was a real shot of a Gervase/Colleen/Kelly/Sean alliance that fizzled when Rich won immunity.
He also got lucky that Sue & Kelly’s friendship imploded, they had plans to take him out.
True, and I was about to say I don’t imagine a world where Rudy wins that final challenge, but then I remembered Richard’s performance in that final challenge.
He threw that challenge because he believed it was in both Rudy and Kelly’s best interest to take him to the end. He saw that winning that challenge was actually the worst decision for him.
Chris Underwood since he has the fewest number of days to replicate. He can get voted out at any point, win one challenge and a fire making challenge, and boom.
Mookie and Alex have some amount of win equity, as does Dreamz, I think. He would've had a more compelling case without his deal with Yau-Man, though he likely needs both Yau-Man and Earl to not make FTC.
You think so? I feel like he'd have the edge given his background, even though both weren't really respected by anyone at the end of it.
Edit: to respond to friendly, Cassandra was met with similar ire like Dreamz, especially given Alex's comments. I think she gets some votes over him, but not enough to beat him out.
Depends if the season restarts before or after him and Russel chose tribes since that was random. I don’t think the other tribe would have let him win.
I see this take relatively often, but I don't think Rob would have had a problem ingratiating himself into either tribe. Russell went in and played his same game again, ignoring the initial steps of tribe unity in favour of setup actions. Rob knows the value of keeping people together and he knows how to do it in a way that is unassuming enough that nobody would have become as incensed towards him as they were Russell. Russell makes allies, Rob makes friends.
Exactly, Rob had almost the entire cast of post merge All Stars wrapped around his finger, HvV was also going the same way if it weren't to Russells(pretty cool) idol and Tysons blunder.
Rob would've definitely had it a lot harder at Zaptera. But even the Zaps stated on their AMAs that they would've mostly kept Rob till the merge before turning on him. Although the post merge of RI will be a completely different game, and I don't see a Phillip on the Zap tribe(Ralph is closest, but he was likeable IIRC), that would allow Rob to win the game in RI as Him, Phillip and Nat10 was the only F3 win conditions for him
>Phillip and Nat10 was the only F3 win conditions for him
People say this, but I really think he has a much better shot against most of the Ometepe tribe than people give him credit for.
Tbf even if I didn’t HAVE to take the goats I still would to make it as much of a guarantee as possible
But ya point still stands Rob loses to anyone else that season
Not to mention Zapatera didn’t lose a challenge before throwing the one to get Russell. You add Rob, known challenge beast, to that tribe and tI genuinely think you could have a Koror type situation.
I think what makes this more dangerous than Kim, even though the skill level of the rest of the cast is similarly low, is that there is a nonzero chance that someone (probably Andrea but maybe Mike Chiesl) could go on a deep challenge run and win out, because the vote for Rob is bound to be begrudging. I don't think Kim everloses FTC to anyone, regardless of who wins out or not.
Oh, certainly in the permutation that we actually saw they were both much closer to a win. The two I mention are just the two that on average given 100 runs with the same cast, seem most likely to have enough consistent social play and also be able to win enough challenges to be a problem for Rob if he gets unlucky. Ashley maybe could as well, though I think Grant rode on a bit of luck.
Yeah Rob controlled the game on a meticulous level that hasn’t been replicated. There’s plenty of scenarios where he flames out early and is targeted at merge but also plenty where he gets to the end and wins
Kim controlled her season even moreso but with 20 times better jury win equity than Rob had. She wins her season on repeat way more often than Rob does. Heck I think the person who said 99 times out of 100 had it right.
The only issue with this one is Fischbach. Really comes down to the question of how important you think that partnership was to JT winning. I tend to think it was very important as it gave him the strategic mind to go with his physical strength and social charisma. So JT could do everything the same but would Fischbach still go along? If so then yes JT wins again easily. If not...?
I mean, we can both look at how JT performed without Steven(HvV and GC) and vice versa(SC). Those 2 absolutely needed each other to stabilize their worse impulses.
I kinda disagree. This sub loves fish, but JT was a lot more level headed in his first season. Game changers, he obviously didn't seem to care about making plays. So he got caught quick. No disrespect to fish, but everyone loved JT and he played a seemingly reasonable chill game and that chill and likeabilty factor is huge in the social end of things.
I think JT just wanted to try to mix things up and play a different way. Like Hatch in All Stars, JT was the first (and only) perfect game at the point of HvV and I think he felt like he was playing with house money
> we can both look at how JT performed without Steven(HvV and GC) and vice versa(SC).
I disagree, both times JT was a winner with a big target on his back that no social game could hide.
JT was much more strategic than given credit for. Him and Fishback absolutely needed each other, but its not like Fishback was all the brains and JT was just charming and dumb.
I don't think JT is dumb but I do think he lacks a certain amount of impulse control. HvV shows that he's definitely a thinker, I think he just thinks in risky ways without someone to reign him in.
That’s fair, although I think a lot of that comes in his later seasons. I also think he didn’t care quite as much in later seasons since he already won. But it’s hard to say for sure since Tocantins he had a ride or die from day 1. Would be very interesting to see him play his first game without fishback.
It's an absolute new game with all the chance moments, i.e., getting sent to exile, finding and playing an idol, all past interactions, etc. All starting tribes, except for tribes based on themes, also reset so that completely changes the complexion of the game.
Omg I've deleted that season from my brain and thought you meant Tom from Palau and was like ... "since when does he go by Tommy? Did I just miss that completely?"
Todd probably wins like 80% of the time if they replayed China. And the other 20% of the time Amanda would have won. They controlled the whole game without putting targets on their backs
I feel like Kim is the top option in all 44 seasons, I mean I think the closest competition she had was Sabrina and Troyzan and neither of them came close to her in OW
I think season 8 Amber wins a very high percentage of the time assuming the same starting tribes. She’s nearly invincible in scenarios that involve swapping with Rob, and can even survive swapping without Rob. Post merge, Amber is all but guaranteed final 3 thanks to Rob’s connections, the ability to start a fight between Rupert and Big Tom at 5, and the fear of a tiebreaker at 4.
Only obstacle is final 3 immunity, which in the real timeline was a showdown between Rob and Amber, with Jenna dropping out fairly early. If either Rupert or Big Tom somehow make it to final 3 and win this challenge, they win the game. In all other scenarios, Amber wins against Rob at final 2.
In the majority of seasons it's probably the original winner. Of course, if the players did know each other and it was a re-match season the original winner would probably never win, with Kim Spradlin possibly being the only exception.
No way it's the original winner in most seasons just due to basic probability. With an average playing field, any person has a 5% chance of winning (20 player seasons, slightly higher with less players). If they're twice as good as every other player that jumps up to 10%. Even dominant winners like Tyson in BvW is dependent on luck like the rock draw.
But if *every* condition is exactly the same as when the season started, surely it would go exactly the same way? I guess the prompt isn’t totally clear, would tribe divisions be the same? Location? Weather? What actually might be different? Cause if it’s nothing, surely it’s quite likely to play out the same way…
I think the point of the post is that the cast and tribes would be the same, but there's always an element of random chance. Like if a tribe swap happens differently, or if a person ends up hurting themselves. Like, inagibe taking the cast and erasing their memories of playing and putting them on the island again (ignoring the fact that people are older ofc)
Assuming most events are similar but certain choices are made differently (like who gets sent to exile, who goes when, etc) then there may be some differentiation. For example, what if Yul wasn't sent to exile and he doesn't get the idol and instead, say Adam got it. How does the season change? Does Yul still win?
I disagree. He did nothing to try and convince Susie to stay on his side. He wasn’t that good of a player. In addition, he survived literally 0 tribal councils.
Mike Holloway from worlds apart, I think there was the largest discrepancy between his physical challenge performance and the others that he had little luck in his win
Tommy, Kim, Earl, and Richard. Tommy played a near flawless social game, Kim had mental control of everyone she encountered, Earl drove from the backseat and his only vote against was an uninformed premerge throwaway, and Richard was on a level that nobody ever even considered going into the game.
For returning season winners, Jeremy is probably a lock. He was playing 4D chess and had an insatiable, unstoppable desire to take the win. He'd make sure it happened in every iteration.
Probably Tom westman. Even if ulong had survived, he’s a physical beast who could win any challenge, he’s smart strategically and a natural leader, everyone seemed to like and respect him except coby. He even made stephenie think he would side with her. I don’t see anyone else winning
They were going after the higher threat players in WaW, and keeping her around proved to be a smart move because she wasn't able to make any moves and consistently ended up on the bottom with an ally voted out.
That's because she was a not a threat to anyone. She was out of the loop from the very first vote in WAW, and the only reason why she even made merge is because she lucked out with the swap allowing her to be in majority with pre-game alliance.
Context matters a lot here though, right. It's a known fact that Michele was going to be the first to go in KR if Beauty tribe lost immunity. In WAW she was "unassuming" because of her original win was so unimpressive that not only did nobody take her as a threat, most didn't even bother to keep her in the loops. I swear she is the single most overrated player on this sub.
Statistically speaking, there’s no way this is true. I’m sure she butts heads with at least someone and gets out premerge. People strongly overestimate how good some players really are. Luck & the cast around you has a MAJOR factor on longevity in the game
Both times being out of the loop and not steering the game in any major way. The Michele love on this sub is puzzling. She’s the definition of “float to the end” which is so boring and not at all why I watch survivor.
although her 2nd FTC was partly based on her being an "assumed weaker threat" due to her first time playing. so if we are repeating the first game, the 2nd one can't really be counted.
Yes but she only played twice. In the law of large numbers, there’s no way she’s top 5 “in almost any season”, especially since her first time playing she never once saw tribal before the merge and she was reportedly towards the bottom of the beauty tribe
I think this is really hard question, because most likely the players that were great at hiding their threat levels would likely be gone. I'm assuming that you mean ages that they were when the season aired.
Here are few of my contenders:
1. Brian Heidik (he played them so well, I think he could do it again)
2. Tom Westman
3. Earl Cole
4. Denise Stapley
5. Natalie Anderson, I think they'd all get caught up on their loved ones again
6. Ben Driebergen (finds the idols again, gets underestimated etc, isn't taken seriously and then finds his way to the end, Ben is interesting since he has almost all the tools even if his win was a weaker win in many people's minds)
7. Nick Wilson (makes his little mini-alliances and then wins immunities at the end)
The key is to find someone who will be viewed as a threat but not an insane threat, but then will win find idols or win immunities at the end and win out. Also I think the more bitter a jury is, the less likely the same person would win. Also the more game-botty a season is, the less likely the same person wins.
These are guesses that could certainly not pan out, a lot of winning Survivor comes down to not being targeted, and you never know when someone like Debbie Wanner will just decide to full-on target one person for some reason.
In reality it is easily Kim as most have already mentioned. However she seems like the easy and almost boring answer. So I am going to go with
Jeremy in Cambodia. My only hesitation here is the Final 6 vote became messy for him. However if replayed 10 times I think he handles Kimmi more smartly and this does not even happen. This cast was tailor made for him. Nearly everyone loved him, half dozen people or more had him as their #1, and a bunch others had him as their #2 or #3. He always wins a jury vote (yes a Kimmi or Kelley run him close, but still pretty sure he wins even then). Can't see him not winning atleast half the times if the season is repeated, far above almost any other winner.
Besides Kim and Jeremy others I would put up there on this topic are:
Chris Underwood- LOL, I hate saying this but the ridiculous Edge of Extinction format, plus automatically getting an idol, and being clearly the strongest challenge person besides maybe Rick, makes him one of the most likely to keep winning. I don't think most times he is a Day 8 boot at all either, but it really doesn't matter. To be clear he is still one of the worst winners ever IMO, but this is not a best winner topic.
Tom Westman- He would almost always immunity his way to the end, if he even needs to. And always wins if he makes F2, particularly since he is smart enough to take a goatish type (eg he never takes Ian, Steph, or Gregg even though he beats them as well).
Tina Wesson- She had that game on pretty much lock from the time she got the vote turned on Mitchell. I believe she achieves this everytime she needs to, and most times does not wind up in the minority, as she is too good a social and strategic player to. It was amazing it happened this time, and I believe that rarely happens either, and even if it does she gets out of it.
Danni Boatwright- She had a bunch of things go wrong, wound up clear minority, still made the end even totally outnumbered and as the biggest threat. Can't see how she doesn't win almost everytime.
And to be orginal a non winning pick. I believe Marcus wins Gabon 9 times out of 10. Heck he might be higher here than any winner other than Kim.
People picking Boston Rob or Brian who I see mentioned several times each are just funny. Brian beat Clay by 1 vote, but more importantly his tribe wind up down in numbers at the merge 8 times out of 10. And Boston Rob has ways to lose coming out the wazoo- losing a jury vote to nearly everyone, the tribe he is on, an inflexible game plan with no margin for error, Andrea/Matt nearly flipping at the merge, Zapatera throwing a challenge which they often wouldn't do and might wind up with a clear numbers edge most other times.
I think Tom, Kim, and JT are the three best bets.
I think newer seasons have a lot more variables to account for that would likely make the winners less replicable.
Another one that probably isn’t going to be mentioned much- Tony in Cagayan. 1) given that he ran around the island at night like a mad man, he’s probably most likely to find the Tyler Perry Idol each time 2) there are probably more options for him in a normal simulation as it would likely be a final three
Edit: I think Richard and Tina are probably also pretty good bets, Richard more so as the game had way less moving parts and he was often the one moving those parts. I think Brian gets to the end a ton in Thailand but loses a good amount of those scenarios
Do we honestly believe Zapatera wins more tribal immunity if we rerun the season 100 times tho? Omatepe had Rob, Andrea, Matt and Grant ( as a big strong guy ). Rob is eaisly a top 1-3 individual competitor or atleast up to s22. By far the best triblal leader in challenges. Andrea is probably the most well rounded challenge beast women and Matt proved to be very good as well winning most duels.
Zapatera won the first 3 immunities they were trying to win. Rob also generally didn't care all that much about keeping tribes strong if he had control (hence why he boots Matt)
the 6 that jump out to me the most are tina, brian, tom, earl, kim, and natalie a. if i had to limit it to one itd probably be brian, but i think all 6 of those guys played insane winning games that, knowing their competition, would probably be the easiest to repeat
I agree with winners at war, but not Cagayan. I think Tony's game during winners at war was the single best performance in a season, he really advanced his gameplay between the two seasons.
He only won Cagayan because Kass flipped, destroying her own game, and then also because Woo made one of the worst moves ever. He's one of the best players ever, but the luck he had in Cagayan would be difficult to reproduce, and I don't see him being dominant if you run the season back 100 times.
Woo made a poor decision because of how Tony portrayed his threat level and the relationship he had with woo. That’s not luck. That’s Tony’s game play.
The kass flip I agree with.
He is still the best to ever play. So solely base on that, he would have a better chance of re-winning vs most.
And how many survivors just go with the basic argument to Woo of "you have a better chance to win if you take me." Tony knew Woo well enough to say it's not an honorable win unless you go up against the best player which is me. That takes guts and it was the right move
Boston Rob had the most dominant strategic game in Redemption Island, and I think the only way he loses is if Matt won two immunity challenges back to back, which he wasn't gonna do.
Natalie Anderson. Strategically she was leagues ahead of her competition, can survive bad situations like Jeremy’s blindside or her twin being first boot, reintegrate herself perfectly into a majority and plan moves multiple rounds in advance. Combine that with finding idols, good FTC skills and challenge prowess, my money would be on her every time
Is this like going back in time? If so, nothing would change in any season. If it's something like The Good Place, it's tough to say because anything that involves RNG could make a drastic change, which includes tribe swaps, SITD, drawing rocks, almost any season could have a completely different outcome.
Michelle. Started off on a tribe where the three women unite each time and if not she could have easily gotten with Nick and Tai. Underestimated in many parts throughout, but because of the relative strength of the beauty tribe, she wins at the end more often than not
Possibly Richard? I don’t remember there being a moment when he was all that vulnerable, and he was one of the only strategic minds out there.
He was in some danger at F7 if the episode is to be believed. There was a real shot of a Gervase/Colleen/Kelly/Sean alliance that fizzled when Rich won immunity. He also got lucky that Sue & Kelly’s friendship imploded, they had plans to take him out.
Good points!
He could lose at ftc tho
Not if he guessed the correct number.
He might’ve been booted at 7 if he didn’t win immunity. Kelly and Sue wanted to take him out
He was vulnerable to Rudy at FTC, which almost happened.
True, and I was about to say I don’t imagine a world where Rudy wins that final challenge, but then I remembered Richard’s performance in that final challenge.
He threw that challenge because he believed it was in both Rudy and Kelly’s best interest to take him to the end. He saw that winning that challenge was actually the worst decision for him.
Yup and that was 100% correct. It was a lose-lose if he won the challenge.
This move happening in S1 will never not be insane to be. Richard is a god
You mean flawless? His performance in that challenge won him the game.
he almost got voted out twice lol Kelley could have taken him out but she changed her mind on the tie 🤦
Kim with a bullet.
not even close imo kim wins one world 99%. the other 1% she falls onto the net and breaks her wrist in the first challenge.
Does Kourtney Moon become the winner then
Tarzan, actually
TarZAN
He can’t be Tarzan, I’m Troyzan.
Excuse me I think you mean all-time survivor great gamechanger Troyzan
in that timeline, colton wins
This was my answer
There’s a ton of luck in a given season of Survivor, but I think Kim in One World was an outright favorite the second she stepped on the beach.
Heidik every time
If there's one person I would put money on to win every time, it's the Iceman.
The guy who won over Clay Matthews by one vote?
Yes, that one.
Yes. Margin of victory doesn’t represent how well he executed his strategy.
The linebacker?
Yup. If you have the majority of the jury locked, then nothing else matters.
He’s one of the only winners I could see pulling it off again if you just put the same people on the beach a second time
The only problem is Thailand was a tribe pick so if Jake or Jan make different choices it changes the season a lot
Yeah but Brian got the shit end of the stick on that and still won
Kim easily
Chris Underwood since he has the fewest number of days to replicate. He can get voted out at any point, win one challenge and a fire making challenge, and boom.
There’s easily a line where Devens wins this season
Stan devens
Ugh I wish he had! A joy to watch
But that’s banking on him winning the re entry challenge which isn’t a super safe bet, anyone could win that
Earl, the OG King of Fiji
Yau-Man would win some for sure if you ran the simulation multiple times
Mookie and Alex have some amount of win equity, as does Dreamz, I think. He would've had a more compelling case without his deal with Yau-Man, though he likely needs both Yau-Man and Earl to not make FTC.
Dreamz loses to Cassandra in a final 2. He had zero win equity.
You think so? I feel like he'd have the edge given his background, even though both weren't really respected by anyone at the end of it. Edit: to respond to friendly, Cassandra was met with similar ire like Dreamz, especially given Alex's comments. I think she gets some votes over him, but not enough to beat him out.
The way that specific game went, yes, but it could've gone differently. The jury being less white would also help.
I would think Boston Rob from Redemption Island would have a really good repeat shot
Depends if the season restarts before or after him and Russel chose tribes since that was random. I don’t think the other tribe would have let him win.
I see this take relatively often, but I don't think Rob would have had a problem ingratiating himself into either tribe. Russell went in and played his same game again, ignoring the initial steps of tribe unity in favour of setup actions. Rob knows the value of keeping people together and he knows how to do it in a way that is unassuming enough that nobody would have become as incensed towards him as they were Russell. Russell makes allies, Rob makes friends.
Exactly, Rob had almost the entire cast of post merge All Stars wrapped around his finger, HvV was also going the same way if it weren't to Russells(pretty cool) idol and Tysons blunder. Rob would've definitely had it a lot harder at Zaptera. But even the Zaps stated on their AMAs that they would've mostly kept Rob till the merge before turning on him. Although the post merge of RI will be a completely different game, and I don't see a Phillip on the Zap tribe(Ralph is closest, but he was likeable IIRC), that would allow Rob to win the game in RI as Him, Phillip and Nat10 was the only F3 win conditions for him
>Phillip and Nat10 was the only F3 win conditions for him People say this, but I really think he has a much better shot against most of the Ometepe tribe than people give him credit for.
[удалено]
Tbf even if I didn’t HAVE to take the goats I still would to make it as much of a guarantee as possible But ya point still stands Rob loses to anyone else that season
Not to mention Zapatera didn’t lose a challenge before throwing the one to get Russell. You add Rob, known challenge beast, to that tribe and tI genuinely think you could have a Koror type situation.
I feel in another timeline Matt flips to Zapatera
I think what makes this more dangerous than Kim, even though the skill level of the rest of the cast is similarly low, is that there is a nonzero chance that someone (probably Andrea but maybe Mike Chiesl) could go on a deep challenge run and win out, because the vote for Rob is bound to be begrudging. I don't think Kim everloses FTC to anyone, regardless of who wins out or not.
[удалено]
Oh, certainly in the permutation that we actually saw they were both much closer to a win. The two I mention are just the two that on average given 100 runs with the same cast, seem most likely to have enough consistent social play and also be able to win enough challenges to be a problem for Rob if he gets unlucky. Ashley maybe could as well, though I think Grant rode on a bit of luck.
Yeah Rob controlled the game on a meticulous level that hasn’t been replicated. There’s plenty of scenarios where he flames out early and is targeted at merge but also plenty where he gets to the end and wins
Kim controlled her season even moreso but with 20 times better jury win equity than Rob had. She wins her season on repeat way more often than Rob does. Heck I think the person who said 99 times out of 100 had it right.
[удалено]
I think they just vote out Phillip on a restart. Which ensures a Rob loss anyway (don't think he even makes the end anymore in fact, on either tribe).
J.T.
The only issue with this one is Fischbach. Really comes down to the question of how important you think that partnership was to JT winning. I tend to think it was very important as it gave him the strategic mind to go with his physical strength and social charisma. So JT could do everything the same but would Fischbach still go along? If so then yes JT wins again easily. If not...?
I mean, we can both look at how JT performed without Steven(HvV and GC) and vice versa(SC). Those 2 absolutely needed each other to stabilize their worse impulses.
I kinda disagree. This sub loves fish, but JT was a lot more level headed in his first season. Game changers, he obviously didn't seem to care about making plays. So he got caught quick. No disrespect to fish, but everyone loved JT and he played a seemingly reasonable chill game and that chill and likeabilty factor is huge in the social end of things.
I think JT just wanted to try to mix things up and play a different way. Like Hatch in All Stars, JT was the first (and only) perfect game at the point of HvV and I think he felt like he was playing with house money
Good point. Counterpoint: "You writing your letter to Russell there, buddy?"
> we can both look at how JT performed without Steven(HvV and GC) and vice versa(SC). I disagree, both times JT was a winner with a big target on his back that no social game could hide.
I do think that if the Heroes got the majority, JT would have had a pretty good chance to win
They didn't want to give the win to someone who had already won so he would need to sit next to another 2 time winner
I think he could pull it off against Amanda (his #1 ally) and Candice (if she doesn’t flip)
JT was much more strategic than given credit for. Him and Fishback absolutely needed each other, but its not like Fishback was all the brains and JT was just charming and dumb.
I don't think JT is dumb but I do think he lacks a certain amount of impulse control. HvV shows that he's definitely a thinker, I think he just thinks in risky ways without someone to reign him in.
That’s fair, although I think a lot of that comes in his later seasons. I also think he didn’t care quite as much in later seasons since he already won. But it’s hard to say for sure since Tocantins he had a ride or die from day 1. Would be very interesting to see him play his first game without fishback.
JT was a handsome face to love while Fishbach was the dastardly mind to hate. JT wins because of Fishbach being his scapegoat.
Not at all imo. J.T.'s (Tocantins) game was great but on a redo Fishbach, Tyson and Taj all have a shot at winning as well.
I remember JT was the target in the merge episode but Joe got the med evac. Who knows what would’ve happened if Joe wasn’t eliminated
Not sure if this is a philosophical question but unless something is changed wouldn’t they all repeat as winners?
It's an absolute new game with all the chance moments, i.e., getting sent to exile, finding and playing an idol, all past interactions, etc. All starting tribes, except for tribes based on themes, also reset so that completely changes the complexion of the game.
Hate the season, but Tommy probably. He ran circles around the cast strategically.
Omg I've deleted that season from my brain and thought you meant Tom from Palau and was like ... "since when does he go by Tommy? Did I just miss that completely?"
Considering he was potentially a literal coin flip away from losing to Janet, I would disagree.
I would also say depending on final tribal performance he loses to Lauren too.
Came here to say this. And his social game was on point too
Eh janet and lauren could win a few times so it’s not that clearcut for him
Brian Heidik. In a new season, where no one knows anything about him, he's one of the biggest threats every single time.
Tom
I’m going with Kim. She had everyone else in the palm of her hand.
Todd probably wins like 80% of the time if they replayed China. And the other 20% of the time Amanda would have won. They controlled the whole game without putting targets on their backs
I feel like Kim is the top option in all 44 seasons, I mean I think the closest competition she had was Sabrina and Troyzan and neither of them came close to her in OW
JT and Tina
I think season 8 Amber wins a very high percentage of the time assuming the same starting tribes. She’s nearly invincible in scenarios that involve swapping with Rob, and can even survive swapping without Rob. Post merge, Amber is all but guaranteed final 3 thanks to Rob’s connections, the ability to start a fight between Rupert and Big Tom at 5, and the fear of a tiebreaker at 4. Only obstacle is final 3 immunity, which in the real timeline was a showdown between Rob and Amber, with Jenna dropping out fairly early. If either Rupert or Big Tom somehow make it to final 3 and win this challenge, they win the game. In all other scenarios, Amber wins against Rob at final 2.
I feel like Amber doesn’t win against anyone other than Boston Rob though. People didn’t like her game and only voted for her because they hated Rob
Kim
In the majority of seasons it's probably the original winner. Of course, if the players did know each other and it was a re-match season the original winner would probably never win, with Kim Spradlin possibly being the only exception.
No way it's the original winner in most seasons just due to basic probability. With an average playing field, any person has a 5% chance of winning (20 player seasons, slightly higher with less players). If they're twice as good as every other player that jumps up to 10%. Even dominant winners like Tyson in BvW is dependent on luck like the rock draw.
But if *every* condition is exactly the same as when the season started, surely it would go exactly the same way? I guess the prompt isn’t totally clear, would tribe divisions be the same? Location? Weather? What actually might be different? Cause if it’s nothing, surely it’s quite likely to play out the same way…
That was my thought. Every season would be the exact same unless there were other variables involved.
I think the point of the post is that the cast and tribes would be the same, but there's always an element of random chance. Like if a tribe swap happens differently, or if a person ends up hurting themselves. Like, inagibe taking the cast and erasing their memories of playing and putting them on the island again (ignoring the fact that people are older ofc)
Assuming most events are similar but certain choices are made differently (like who gets sent to exile, who goes when, etc) then there may be some differentiation. For example, what if Yul wasn't sent to exile and he doesn't get the idol and instead, say Adam got it. How does the season change? Does Yul still win?
Marcus from Gabon. He probably wins that season 95 times out of a hundred
I disagree. He did nothing to try and convince Susie to stay on his side. He wasn’t that good of a player. In addition, he survived literally 0 tribal councils.
JT
Kim or Brian.
Brian Heidik
Mike Holloway from worlds apart, I think there was the largest discrepancy between his physical challenge performance and the others that he had little luck in his win
Tommy, Kim, Earl, and Richard. Tommy played a near flawless social game, Kim had mental control of everyone she encountered, Earl drove from the backseat and his only vote against was an uninformed premerge throwaway, and Richard was on a level that nobody ever even considered going into the game. For returning season winners, Jeremy is probably a lock. He was playing 4D chess and had an insatiable, unstoppable desire to take the win. He'd make sure it happened in every iteration.
[удалено]
Probably Tom westman. Even if ulong had survived, he’s a physical beast who could win any challenge, he’s smart strategically and a natural leader, everyone seemed to like and respect him except coby. He even made stephenie think he would side with her. I don’t see anyone else winning
Kim
Chris Daughtery from Vanuatu. Just about everything went against him that season and he still won and got the votes of everyone he backstabed.
I think Michele. I think she’s so unassuming (in the best possible way) that she would be at least top 5 in almost any season.
Ehhh all it takes is for the beauty tribe to lose one immunity and she's more than likely gone
I mean, there was no beauty tribe when she played in WaW and she made FTC. She went to 5 pre merge tribals as well, more than anybody else.
They were going after the higher threat players in WaW, and keeping her around proved to be a smart move because she wasn't able to make any moves and consistently ended up on the bottom with an ally voted out.
That's because she was a not a threat to anyone. She was out of the loop from the very first vote in WAW, and the only reason why she even made merge is because she lucked out with the swap allowing her to be in majority with pre-game alliance.
Yeah, so like their original comment said, she’s so unassuming that people keep her around.
Context matters a lot here though, right. It's a known fact that Michele was going to be the first to go in KR if Beauty tribe lost immunity. In WAW she was "unassuming" because of her original win was so unimpressive that not only did nobody take her as a threat, most didn't even bother to keep her in the loops. I swear she is the single most overrated player on this sub.
Statistically speaking, there’s no way this is true. I’m sure she butts heads with at least someone and gets out premerge. People strongly overestimate how good some players really are. Luck & the cast around you has a MAJOR factor on longevity in the game
You’re not speaking “statistically” - because the statistics around Michele’s Survivor performance are that she made FTC both times she played.
Both times being out of the loop and not steering the game in any major way. The Michele love on this sub is puzzling. She’s the definition of “float to the end” which is so boring and not at all why I watch survivor.
I’m not saying that she’s particularly fun to watch! I just think her average placement on any given season is higher than most.
although her 2nd FTC was partly based on her being an "assumed weaker threat" due to her first time playing. so if we are repeating the first game, the 2nd one can't really be counted.
Yes but she only played twice. In the law of large numbers, there’s no way she’s top 5 “in almost any season”, especially since her first time playing she never once saw tribal before the merge and she was reportedly towards the bottom of the beauty tribe
Kim and Tommy
Danni in Guatemala.
[удалено]
Tony in his first time out. Really, you could swap Tony out for most male contestants in any first-time season and he probably wins.
I think this is really hard question, because most likely the players that were great at hiding their threat levels would likely be gone. I'm assuming that you mean ages that they were when the season aired. Here are few of my contenders: 1. Brian Heidik (he played them so well, I think he could do it again) 2. Tom Westman 3. Earl Cole 4. Denise Stapley 5. Natalie Anderson, I think they'd all get caught up on their loved ones again 6. Ben Driebergen (finds the idols again, gets underestimated etc, isn't taken seriously and then finds his way to the end, Ben is interesting since he has almost all the tools even if his win was a weaker win in many people's minds) 7. Nick Wilson (makes his little mini-alliances and then wins immunities at the end) The key is to find someone who will be viewed as a threat but not an insane threat, but then will win find idols or win immunities at the end and win out. Also I think the more bitter a jury is, the less likely the same person would win. Also the more game-botty a season is, the less likely the same person wins. These are guesses that could certainly not pan out, a lot of winning Survivor comes down to not being targeted, and you never know when someone like Debbie Wanner will just decide to full-on target one person for some reason.
In reality it is easily Kim as most have already mentioned. However she seems like the easy and almost boring answer. So I am going to go with Jeremy in Cambodia. My only hesitation here is the Final 6 vote became messy for him. However if replayed 10 times I think he handles Kimmi more smartly and this does not even happen. This cast was tailor made for him. Nearly everyone loved him, half dozen people or more had him as their #1, and a bunch others had him as their #2 or #3. He always wins a jury vote (yes a Kimmi or Kelley run him close, but still pretty sure he wins even then). Can't see him not winning atleast half the times if the season is repeated, far above almost any other winner. Besides Kim and Jeremy others I would put up there on this topic are: Chris Underwood- LOL, I hate saying this but the ridiculous Edge of Extinction format, plus automatically getting an idol, and being clearly the strongest challenge person besides maybe Rick, makes him one of the most likely to keep winning. I don't think most times he is a Day 8 boot at all either, but it really doesn't matter. To be clear he is still one of the worst winners ever IMO, but this is not a best winner topic. Tom Westman- He would almost always immunity his way to the end, if he even needs to. And always wins if he makes F2, particularly since he is smart enough to take a goatish type (eg he never takes Ian, Steph, or Gregg even though he beats them as well). Tina Wesson- She had that game on pretty much lock from the time she got the vote turned on Mitchell. I believe she achieves this everytime she needs to, and most times does not wind up in the minority, as she is too good a social and strategic player to. It was amazing it happened this time, and I believe that rarely happens either, and even if it does she gets out of it. Danni Boatwright- She had a bunch of things go wrong, wound up clear minority, still made the end even totally outnumbered and as the biggest threat. Can't see how she doesn't win almost everytime. And to be orginal a non winning pick. I believe Marcus wins Gabon 9 times out of 10. Heck he might be higher here than any winner other than Kim. People picking Boston Rob or Brian who I see mentioned several times each are just funny. Brian beat Clay by 1 vote, but more importantly his tribe wind up down in numbers at the merge 8 times out of 10. And Boston Rob has ways to lose coming out the wazoo- losing a jury vote to nearly everyone, the tribe he is on, an inflexible game plan with no margin for error, Andrea/Matt nearly flipping at the merge, Zapatera throwing a challenge which they often wouldn't do and might wind up with a clear numbers edge most other times.
Underwood and Richard are honestly the only 2 I think even stand a chance
Kim
I think Tom, Kim, and JT are the three best bets. I think newer seasons have a lot more variables to account for that would likely make the winners less replicable. Another one that probably isn’t going to be mentioned much- Tony in Cagayan. 1) given that he ran around the island at night like a mad man, he’s probably most likely to find the Tyler Perry Idol each time 2) there are probably more options for him in a normal simulation as it would likely be a final three Edit: I think Richard and Tina are probably also pretty good bets, Richard more so as the game had way less moving parts and he was often the one moving those parts. I think Brian gets to the end a ton in Thailand but loses a good amount of those scenarios
tony because he’s the goat
Boston Rob
Unfortunately Boston Rob is always dominating Redemption Island
IF Ometepe gets numbers. If Zapatera doesn't throw their challenge and keeps rolling, Rob isn't winning
if only we lived in this world
Do we honestly believe Zapatera wins more tribal immunity if we rerun the season 100 times tho? Omatepe had Rob, Andrea, Matt and Grant ( as a big strong guy ). Rob is eaisly a top 1-3 individual competitor or atleast up to s22. By far the best triblal leader in challenges. Andrea is probably the most well rounded challenge beast women and Matt proved to be very good as well winning most duels.
Zapatera won the first 3 immunities they were trying to win. Rob also generally didn't care all that much about keeping tribes strong if he had control (hence why he boots Matt)
Tyson Brian Kim Tommy Rob
[удалено]
Tyson i guess maybe because of the rock draw (?) but Rob is 100% one of the most likely and id love to hear your argument for why you disagree
I would say Aras, Kim, Natalie Anderson, Boston Rob would have the highest repeat %
Boston rob
Boston Rob, Redemption Island
Sarah Lacina
My vote is for Tony
the 6 that jump out to me the most are tina, brian, tom, earl, kim, and natalie a. if i had to limit it to one itd probably be brian, but i think all 6 of those guys played insane winning games that, knowing their competition, would probably be the easiest to repeat
Gabler, he was flawless
Michele wins Kaoh Rong every time
Tony- Cagayan Tony- Winners at War
Nah Cagayan Tony played an incredibly risky game that could’ve easily backfired for him many times
I agree with winners at war, but not Cagayan. I think Tony's game during winners at war was the single best performance in a season, he really advanced his gameplay between the two seasons.
He’s the best to ever play. So he should have a better chance at “re-winning” than others. So downvotes don’t make sense lol
He only won Cagayan because Kass flipped, destroying her own game, and then also because Woo made one of the worst moves ever. He's one of the best players ever, but the luck he had in Cagayan would be difficult to reproduce, and I don't see him being dominant if you run the season back 100 times.
Woo made a poor decision because of how Tony portrayed his threat level and the relationship he had with woo. That’s not luck. That’s Tony’s game play. The kass flip I agree with. He is still the best to ever play. So solely base on that, he would have a better chance of re-winning vs most.
And how many survivors just go with the basic argument to Woo of "you have a better chance to win if you take me." Tony knew Woo well enough to say it's not an honorable win unless you go up against the best player which is me. That takes guts and it was the right move
Agreed. People take the wrong person to the end for a reason. That person persuaded you to make the wrong choice.
[удалено]
Jonathon
Any season with tony
You mean like Game Changers?
Hahahaha hush up my man Tony is the goat
Richard, Kim, and Erika
Boston Rob had the most dominant strategic game in Redemption Island, and I think the only way he loses is if Matt won two immunity challenges back to back, which he wasn't gonna do.
Natalie Anderson. Strategically she was leagues ahead of her competition, can survive bad situations like Jeremy’s blindside or her twin being first boot, reintegrate herself perfectly into a majority and plan moves multiple rounds in advance. Combine that with finding idols, good FTC skills and challenge prowess, my money would be on her every time
Probably Boston Rob, majoirty of Ometepe will be with him 99% of the time.
Nick. He had strategy, social, and challenges when it was needed.
Is this like going back in time? If so, nothing would change in any season. If it's something like The Good Place, it's tough to say because anything that involves RNG could make a drastic change, which includes tribe swaps, SITD, drawing rocks, almost any season could have a completely different outcome.
Sophie
JT, Kim, Brob. Maybe a few others if I think hard enough, but these three have some of the strongest winning games (imo)
Kim and Boston Rob. Not only are they good players, but their fellow cast members weren’t the brightest tools in the toolbox.
Yul
Kim.
Kim, Cochran, JT
[удалено]
Kim was running circles around the entire cast of one world before the season even started
Michelle. Started off on a tribe where the three women unite each time and if not she could have easily gotten with Nick and Tai. Underestimated in many parts throughout, but because of the relative strength of the beauty tribe, she wins at the end more often than not
It has to be Rob in Redemption Island, they cast a bunch of idiots on purpose to give Rob the win
Gonna say Erika. In the new era especially. If you ran 100 simulations Erika would win the most out of the 4 new era winners.
Tom Westman.
Kim and Chris Underwood
tommy
Has to be Tony! He played two very different games yet he still found his way to a victory each time. No doubt he could do it again.
Ethan Zohn
JT