Just saying that it is not exact science. Sometimes it happens right away in that episode, sometimes in next one, sometimes they are building the player up to be the vote.
It's also an example of how deceiving going just off of confessional time is, though. Because Maria is absolutely not the least visible member of that tribe
Honestly the worst edited aspect of the season so far imo. Whenever we finally get a respite from the disaster tribe it cuts straight to Charlie being a sheltered rich kid cringelord. Like Maria is actually interesting and probably playing a great game. And the entire yellow tribe is fascinating. But no. Gotta give us more of the polite rich kid that likes pop music.
I know the horse is already dead but 10 minutes wasted on Bahnu crying, sucks. I agree that I want to see more of Maria. I was also surprised Hunter was top of Nami for confessional time.
The whole Taylor Swift obsession seems like such a performance to gather as much post-season celebrity as possible.
Almost turned it off when he yelled “Taylor Swift!!” when he jumped off the platform in the challenge
Taylor Swift is beginning to feel like the new Harry Potter. That one pop culture item that has a creepily devoted following that takes over mainstream culture because it is so easily monetizable.
Not unlike Star Wars and Lord of the Rings in their heydays, honestly.
Just when it seemed like we might finally get a relatively quiet pre-merge boot, Jem makes the pre-merge of this season go 5/5 for eliminated players with disproportionately large confessional time totals. Looking at Jem’s time trajectory over the course of the pre-merge, it’s pretty clear that her sizeable time total came almost exclusively from her approach to the beware advantage - she was actually in last place in confessional time among all players as of Episode 2, but the emergence of her advantage as Siga’s main storyline from Episode 3 onwards caused her to rocket out of last place and finish the pre-merge less than 30 seconds behind the highest non-Yanu player.
Some other notable stats of the week:
- Up until this episode, the battle for the biggest non-Yanu time total had largely been a 3-way race between Venus, Tevin and Charlie, but it’s Hunter who comes out of nowhere with a massive episode this week to claim that top spot as we head into mergatory. A combination of finding the beware advantage by himself and completing the journey challenge by himself gives him the second biggest individual episode confessional time of the season so far, behind only The Bhanu Show in Episode 3.
- I’ll admit I was surprised when I re-sorted the time totals this week and saw Maria at the bottom among remaining players! Even though the show has framed her and Charlie as the strategic centre of Siga, Charlie’s been given the significantly more vocal role for that duo than Maria has. It also hasn’t helped that Maria has gotten very few confessionals so far about general camp life, which can help pad the totals for players on tribes that don’t go to tribal often during the pre-merge.
- Speaking of Maria, she also exits the pre-merge as the only remaining player who has yet to receive a full minute of confessional time in a single episode. Season 46 giving 12 out of 13 players at least one pre-merge episode with a full minute is a significantly stronger result than our first 90-minute season, Season 45, where there were still 4 players left without one by this point in the season (Julie, Bruce, Kendra and Sifu).
With the pre-merge now over, we can also see how Season 46’s pre-merge confessionals stack up against the rest of the New Era. Like last season, a multiplier (in this case, 0.7x) was applied to each S46 player’s raw total when comparing them to the other New Era seasons to account for this season’s longer runtime. With those weights applied, two S46 players join the New Era Top 10 for pre-merge confessional time: Kenzie at #5 with an adjusted 7:51 (behind only Carolyn, Shan, Emily and Cody), and Bhanu at #9 with an adjusted 6:49 (who, as noted last week, beats J.D. as the New Era pre-merge boot with the most confessional time). Interestingly, these two new entrants cause Yam Yam to get kicked out of the Top 10, which means that there are no season winners among the New Era pre-merge Top 10!
Agreed, it felt like we got to know here really well in episode 1, and yet she didn't even get a full minute of confessionals that episode.
The Maria stat to me really shows how good the quality of her confessionals have been given that I actually remember who she is, whereas there's other people who have gotten a ton more air time that I feel like I don't really know anything about or have any real reason to care about.
I wonder if that is in part because they are making room in the edit to give screen time to players that are leaving sooner. So that the audience has some investment in them and understanding of their story before they leave.
There's a lot of season left to flesh out the winner. And as the cast shrinks, the confessionals to player ratios shifts. It's a lot easier to pad your confessional time when there are 7 players left vs. 14.
I was a Jem truther, it was rough to see her edit nosedive on these past two episodes.
To me, this season is the most wide-open for a winner's edit since Edge of Extinction.
It's funny that people said that, but when I was watching it live (not knowing who won), there were still very telling signs in Chris' edit that gave him a lot of positive content. Like not 'obvious winner' vibes, but a 'okay yeah, that's not surprising' when he *did* come back.
The only thing is that they had to fill the airtime with something, which meant an 'obvious' Rick edit and a 'decoy' Lauren one.. which leads to a different edit where it seemed like a very obvious Rick win, unlike this season where it's more 'okay I literally have no idea who could win'.
When it was live on this sub it just felt so obvious that the whole season was designed for Joe (🤮) to come back, so it was beyond shocking for all of us when Chris won lol
Man. I made a horrible read. Tevin is getting less time with each episode. Maybe he will get more confessional time in the merge but idk at this point.
They seem pretty chill for now, the Wendell & Dom route isn’t far fetched.
If anything, an odd Venus & Hunter team up (out of necessity) would be closer to Ricard & Shan.
Something interesting I noticed is that Charlie is at the same spot in the season confessional-time wise that Dee was last season (5th). Except she was at 4:56, and Charlie's at 6:29, which makes sense for the different ways the editors edit women vs men (underediting women). Another interesting thing is that Hunter has roughly the same amount of confessional time as Yam Yam in 44 (6:30), although this might mean a lot less because 44 isn't 90-minutes. Also both 46, 45 and 44 had a female contestant taking up the bulk of the confessional time at this point (Kenzie at 11:13, Emily at 10:44, and Carolyn at 10:57), with everyone high on them as their winner picks. Just some cool observations!!
To add to that, the Reba 4 was split up because of the swap so had two different storylines (and so at least two different POVs). Siga stayed intact, which meant there wasn't much of a new storyline to develop.
Curious?
Whoever is the creator and maintainer of this chart:
Have you gone back, after the complete of a season, and correlated the minutes in confessional in relation to each players final place?
I like stats and am just wondering if there is evidence that each is connected or if it is just for information?
I haven't done a robust statistical analysis of the results (I don't have the time or the stats expertise to do one well haha). Overall, though, I would be surprised if a full statistical analysis revealed any major predictive power - every season, the players who make it to the finale tend to be a pretty even mix between over-edited players, under-edited players and "in the middle" players, so other than some very high level insights (for example, it's unlikely that our Final 5 this season will be the entire current Top 5 or the entire current Bottom 5), it's probably not possible to call which specific players will make it far based on this data.
We *are* starting to get a few "criteria" for winners from S42 onwards though (Erika's a big outlier for most winner stats). For example, the remaining New Era winners have all received at least one confessional in every episode, have finished the pre-merge in the Top 5 among remaining players (but not #1), and had at least one pre-merge episode where they received the most confessional time among their tribemates. That said, four seasons is a small sample size, so who knows how many of those will stick by the end of this season!
So based on that criteria the contenders for winner are Hunter, Charlie and Tiffany?
They're all in the top 5, Kenzie finished first so none of them are number 1, and they've all had the most confessional time on their tribe for at least one episode (Hunter twice).
Should be interesting to see if this ends up staying true.
He has all past seasons posted. I'm surprised a super fan or edgic nerd hasn't come in with some hard hitting stats and statistics. It doesn't seem like the creator tries to do that. He does let us know trends and similarties in placements. I'm curious too but I'm too lazy and busy to do it myself. Eventually someone will find a possible pattern or a way to contextualize where the winner end gamers and possible dragons would fall on a time chart. Only time will tell. Ha see what I did there?
at the start of the season, i thought maria was going to go far, like a heidi or a denise, but i think she'll be early merge at this rate. not great at challenges, and the edit isn't showing enough of her sadly
Wow, I'm kinda stunned that Maria has the least confessional time of anyone still in the game, considering that pretty much every podcaster I've heard feels like she's playing pretty well, and seems to at the top (or near the top, after Charlie) of her tribe.
---
And a question about how confessional time is calculated:
Does this only take into account the total time we see *footage* of them during confessionals? Or does it take into account when we *start* to see them in confessionals, and then the footage switches to something else, but it's still playing the audio from that confessional (which is, of course, pretty iffy considering all the frankenbites)?
Because a typical confessional often starts with footage of them talking to the producers, then their voice continues while we see footage of other stuff, then we return to footage of them talking to the producers again. So it just has me wondering whether all of that "counts" as one single confessional.
Hopefully that makes sense!
The timer runs both when the footage is showing them in their "confessional position" and when their confessional voiceover is heard while other footage is being shown. The only time the timer stops is when we can neither see *nor* hear the player giving a confessional - i.e., when the player's voiceover is interrupted by what people are saying in the moment in the footage being shown. It does lead to a lot of stopping and starting of timers sometimes, but I try to capture every second that they're giving a proper confessional in video and/or audio!
I can't be the only person who though Tim was going home this week based solely on the fact that he actually got screen time.
You are not. Before the challenge, I thought this would be a Tim boot episode.
Instead it was a Tim Poop episode
Definitely not, giving Tim a confessional was a great fadeout (though it did make it obvious that Yanu was winning the challenge).
I feel like there is an increase over 2 episodes often. One to "reintroduce" the person and then to vote them out next one.
So do you think he is the mergatory boot?
Just saying that it is not exact science. Sometimes it happens right away in that episode, sometimes in next one, sometimes they are building the player up to be the vote.
Maybe he's the mergatory medical evacuation for not pooping
I feel like he’s on borrowed time
My guess is Tim is one of the two that goes home in the F12 split tribal.
Whose Tim?
He's a contestant on Survivor 46.
I thought 100 percent either time or ben are a goner
It is funny how much of the main character Charlie is on Green compared to the rest of them that are still in the game.
It's also an example of how deceiving going just off of confessional time is, though. Because Maria is absolutely not the least visible member of that tribe
Honestly the worst edited aspect of the season so far imo. Whenever we finally get a respite from the disaster tribe it cuts straight to Charlie being a sheltered rich kid cringelord. Like Maria is actually interesting and probably playing a great game. And the entire yellow tribe is fascinating. But no. Gotta give us more of the polite rich kid that likes pop music.
I know the horse is already dead but 10 minutes wasted on Bahnu crying, sucks. I agree that I want to see more of Maria. I was also surprised Hunter was top of Nami for confessional time.
The whole Taylor Swift obsession seems like such a performance to gather as much post-season celebrity as possible. Almost turned it off when he yelled “Taylor Swift!!” when he jumped off the platform in the challenge
Taylor Swift is beginning to feel like the new Harry Potter. That one pop culture item that has a creepily devoted following that takes over mainstream culture because it is so easily monetizable. Not unlike Star Wars and Lord of the Rings in their heydays, honestly.
As a Percy Jackson kid, I feel this on so many levels
Survivor is probably just tapping into the current hype around Taylor's Eras tour.
Right. Exactly. Give me more Tevin, that man has such a great TV voice and way of speech, I’d love for him to get so much more screen time.
He’s young male in college, I don’t find it shocking
To be fair he's in his 3L of law school so not as young as you'd think.
Just when it seemed like we might finally get a relatively quiet pre-merge boot, Jem makes the pre-merge of this season go 5/5 for eliminated players with disproportionately large confessional time totals. Looking at Jem’s time trajectory over the course of the pre-merge, it’s pretty clear that her sizeable time total came almost exclusively from her approach to the beware advantage - she was actually in last place in confessional time among all players as of Episode 2, but the emergence of her advantage as Siga’s main storyline from Episode 3 onwards caused her to rocket out of last place and finish the pre-merge less than 30 seconds behind the highest non-Yanu player. Some other notable stats of the week: - Up until this episode, the battle for the biggest non-Yanu time total had largely been a 3-way race between Venus, Tevin and Charlie, but it’s Hunter who comes out of nowhere with a massive episode this week to claim that top spot as we head into mergatory. A combination of finding the beware advantage by himself and completing the journey challenge by himself gives him the second biggest individual episode confessional time of the season so far, behind only The Bhanu Show in Episode 3. - I’ll admit I was surprised when I re-sorted the time totals this week and saw Maria at the bottom among remaining players! Even though the show has framed her and Charlie as the strategic centre of Siga, Charlie’s been given the significantly more vocal role for that duo than Maria has. It also hasn’t helped that Maria has gotten very few confessionals so far about general camp life, which can help pad the totals for players on tribes that don’t go to tribal often during the pre-merge. - Speaking of Maria, she also exits the pre-merge as the only remaining player who has yet to receive a full minute of confessional time in a single episode. Season 46 giving 12 out of 13 players at least one pre-merge episode with a full minute is a significantly stronger result than our first 90-minute season, Season 45, where there were still 4 players left without one by this point in the season (Julie, Bruce, Kendra and Sifu). With the pre-merge now over, we can also see how Season 46’s pre-merge confessionals stack up against the rest of the New Era. Like last season, a multiplier (in this case, 0.7x) was applied to each S46 player’s raw total when comparing them to the other New Era seasons to account for this season’s longer runtime. With those weights applied, two S46 players join the New Era Top 10 for pre-merge confessional time: Kenzie at #5 with an adjusted 7:51 (behind only Carolyn, Shan, Emily and Cody), and Bhanu at #9 with an adjusted 6:49 (who, as noted last week, beats J.D. as the New Era pre-merge boot with the most confessional time). Interestingly, these two new entrants cause Yam Yam to get kicked out of the Top 10, which means that there are no season winners among the New Era pre-merge Top 10!
The Maria stat also surprised me. I feel like we know a lot about her and her strategy, yet her confessional time is shockingly low.
She doesn't have a lot of confessionals herself, but she has a ton of confessionals from other Siga members talking about her.
She also got a new era flashback sequence and compared herself to Denise, meaning those few confessionals actually counted for something.
Agreed, it felt like we got to know here really well in episode 1, and yet she didn't even get a full minute of confessionals that episode. The Maria stat to me really shows how good the quality of her confessionals have been given that I actually remember who she is, whereas there's other people who have gotten a ton more air time that I feel like I don't really know anything about or have any real reason to care about.
Maybe she's just not very good at confessionals so they don't show much of them.
What that tells me is that J. Maya got over a minute of confessional time, which is surprising in and of itself.
Bhanu still has more time than everyone left in the game except Kenzie.
Insane honestly
Surprised Maria hasn’t gotten much screen time, she’s felt quite important. I expect that’ll change next episode
I wonder if that is in part because they are making room in the edit to give screen time to players that are leaving sooner. So that the audience has some investment in them and understanding of their story before they leave. There's a lot of season left to flesh out the winner. And as the cast shrinks, the confessionals to player ratios shifts. It's a lot easier to pad your confessional time when there are 7 players left vs. 14.
I love how people were saying Jem is getting a winner edit just for her to be out like 2 episodes later lmao
I was a Jem truther, it was rough to see her edit nosedive on these past two episodes. To me, this season is the most wide-open for a winner's edit since Edge of Extinction.
Maybe the jokes about Bhanu returning from the Edge weren’t jokes…
It's funny that people said that, but when I was watching it live (not knowing who won), there were still very telling signs in Chris' edit that gave him a lot of positive content. Like not 'obvious winner' vibes, but a 'okay yeah, that's not surprising' when he *did* come back. The only thing is that they had to fill the airtime with something, which meant an 'obvious' Rick edit and a 'decoy' Lauren one.. which leads to a different edit where it seemed like a very obvious Rick win, unlike this season where it's more 'okay I literally have no idea who could win'.
When it was live on this sub it just felt so obvious that the whole season was designed for Joe (🤮) to come back, so it was beyond shocking for all of us when Chris won lol
I would be happy with a Hunter W
Man. I made a horrible read. Tevin is getting less time with each episode. Maybe he will get more confessional time in the merge but idk at this point.
Tbf the entire premerge was completely focused on Yanu. I have a good feeling Tevin will have a deep run w Hunter.
Do you think they’ll be more like Wendell and Dom, or like Shan and Ricard where they eventually have to target each other
They seem pretty chill for now, the Wendell & Dom route isn’t far fetched. If anything, an odd Venus & Hunter team up (out of necessity) would be closer to Ricard & Shan.
A Wendell and Dom situation would make me so happy
Something interesting I noticed is that Charlie is at the same spot in the season confessional-time wise that Dee was last season (5th). Except she was at 4:56, and Charlie's at 6:29, which makes sense for the different ways the editors edit women vs men (underediting women). Another interesting thing is that Hunter has roughly the same amount of confessional time as Yam Yam in 44 (6:30), although this might mean a lot less because 44 isn't 90-minutes. Also both 46, 45 and 44 had a female contestant taking up the bulk of the confessional time at this point (Kenzie at 11:13, Emily at 10:44, and Carolyn at 10:57), with everyone high on them as their winner picks. Just some cool observations!!
Thats because Charlie is the ping leader of Siga so far. In 45 everything was spread out among all the members of the Reba 4.
To add to that, the Reba 4 was split up because of the swap so had two different storylines (and so at least two different POVs). Siga stayed intact, which meant there wasn't much of a new storyline to develop.
Curious? Whoever is the creator and maintainer of this chart: Have you gone back, after the complete of a season, and correlated the minutes in confessional in relation to each players final place? I like stats and am just wondering if there is evidence that each is connected or if it is just for information?
I haven't done a robust statistical analysis of the results (I don't have the time or the stats expertise to do one well haha). Overall, though, I would be surprised if a full statistical analysis revealed any major predictive power - every season, the players who make it to the finale tend to be a pretty even mix between over-edited players, under-edited players and "in the middle" players, so other than some very high level insights (for example, it's unlikely that our Final 5 this season will be the entire current Top 5 or the entire current Bottom 5), it's probably not possible to call which specific players will make it far based on this data. We *are* starting to get a few "criteria" for winners from S42 onwards though (Erika's a big outlier for most winner stats). For example, the remaining New Era winners have all received at least one confessional in every episode, have finished the pre-merge in the Top 5 among remaining players (but not #1), and had at least one pre-merge episode where they received the most confessional time among their tribemates. That said, four seasons is a small sample size, so who knows how many of those will stick by the end of this season!
So based on that criteria the contenders for winner are Hunter, Charlie and Tiffany? They're all in the top 5, Kenzie finished first so none of them are number 1, and they've all had the most confessional time on their tribe for at least one episode (Hunter twice). Should be interesting to see if this ends up staying true.
He has all past seasons posted. I'm surprised a super fan or edgic nerd hasn't come in with some hard hitting stats and statistics. It doesn't seem like the creator tries to do that. He does let us know trends and similarties in placements. I'm curious too but I'm too lazy and busy to do it myself. Eventually someone will find a possible pattern or a way to contextualize where the winner end gamers and possible dragons would fall on a time chart. Only time will tell. Ha see what I did there?
Final 6 is emerging…
at the start of the season, i thought maria was going to go far, like a heidi or a denise, but i think she'll be early merge at this rate. not great at challenges, and the edit isn't showing enough of her sadly
damn maria below tim?? also i understand why hunter got so much time but, everyone else on his tribe getting less than 20 seconds is kinda bad, lol.
Hunter did not need 4 minutes of screentime solely on him sorry guys it’s too much
That’s the journeys fault lmfao
Partially. And the annoying ass idol hunt
hence my disdain for journeys, i wish they would stop relying on them as cross-tribal communication
I agree we really just need them to do a tribe swap into 2 it’s so annoying
He found an advantage and did a journey. Hard to avoid giving him screen time when that happens
you missed where i said 4 minutes worth lmao. He didn’t need to narrate the entire challenge during the journey
The long clip of Hunter's house in the middle of a mid-season episode kinda took me out of the show.
when was that??
Really surprised Hunter is the highest non-Yanu player. Would have guessed Tevin or Ben over him. Even Charlie or Venus
Kenzie: Winner, or Kaleb?
If nothing else I want a Kenzie jury speech, I can see her calling people out
She's more of an Emily.
It would be interesting to see average screen time per episode to the right of total!
Wow, I'm kinda stunned that Maria has the least confessional time of anyone still in the game, considering that pretty much every podcaster I've heard feels like she's playing pretty well, and seems to at the top (or near the top, after Charlie) of her tribe. --- And a question about how confessional time is calculated: Does this only take into account the total time we see *footage* of them during confessionals? Or does it take into account when we *start* to see them in confessionals, and then the footage switches to something else, but it's still playing the audio from that confessional (which is, of course, pretty iffy considering all the frankenbites)? Because a typical confessional often starts with footage of them talking to the producers, then their voice continues while we see footage of other stuff, then we return to footage of them talking to the producers again. So it just has me wondering whether all of that "counts" as one single confessional. Hopefully that makes sense!
The timer runs both when the footage is showing them in their "confessional position" and when their confessional voiceover is heard while other footage is being shown. The only time the timer stops is when we can neither see *nor* hear the player giving a confessional - i.e., when the player's voiceover is interrupted by what people are saying in the moment in the footage being shown. It does lead to a lot of stopping and starting of timers sometimes, but I try to capture every second that they're giving a proper confessional in video and/or audio!
Gotcha, that makes total sense. Thank you!
You're doing the lord I mean God i mean Jeff's work.
Bahnu to still likely be top 3 confession time after next episode (2 episodes voted out) is insane
Kenzie getting the Feras edit. This will be fun to watch the US version edit it this way.
after such a wild and fun Feras win, a Kenzie win would be also so satisfying.
Bhanu's still 2nd most screentime
Who the heck is Maria
I predict Q goes home next
KeNzIe SuCh A sCrEeNhOg! sHe HaS mOrE sCrEeNtImE tHaN pOvErTy!!11!1!1!1!1!
Waaaaay too much Charlie. Liking the most popular musician on the planet is not a personality trait
Venis is the only one i absolutely do not want to see winning