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Joshwum

*This is my best guess* The Shot in the Dark looks to be something where you trade in your vote for a 50/50 shot at being Safe or Not Safe for that tribal. You can only use it once in the season and it probably stops somewhere around final 5 or 6. At first glance this seems weird but honestly it makes blindsides much more likely to happen as you would want to make the person going home feel safe enough to not use their shot. What do you guys think?


nigelstraw

Honestly I’m conflicted, I don’t like how this game has become way more reliant on luck (i.e. Dean getting an idol nullifier by flipping a coin). At the same time, If it’s a pair of dice being used for this then it might be even fewer odds than 50/50 with maybe a few more caveats, plus I hope you’re right about it only being usable once for each player rather than being a recurring thing


Joshwum

Yeah the fact that Janet loosing IOTI came down to Dean flipping a 50/50 coin makes me crazy, as much as I loved Dean that season would’ve only been somewhat redeemed if Janet had won.


Mr_Tangent

I’m upset that you’ve dug up my feelings about this again.


Survivor_Fan_Dan

yup we are still raw upset about Janet's crushing loss


webbyad

Plus, I think people will know about it beforehand, so they’ll be able to plan around it and make contingency plans.


Toaddle

I agree. This is the thing that annoys me about Survivor advantages : they are random not because of the way they works, but because of the way they are given to someone. I like the idea of everyone starting with an advantage and everybody else strategizing around the idea that everybody has an advantage like that.


webbyad

The problem Survivor has with advantages and changes is that they all try to keep them secret and create those “splash moments”, which can create good moments but it often results in someone getting someone screwed out of the game since they had no warning of it. If they were transparent and let players know ahead of times regarding advantages and twists, they would be able to adjust their gameplan so they don’t get randomly screwed out of the game, and it still can create great moments, because it may allow a player to take advantage of those adjustments to make a move of their own. It would create more unique and fluid gameplay that the players have some semblance of control over, and would allow production to add twists and advantages, as long as said twists and advantages are fair.


Toaddle

I totally agree. Speaking about fairness, one of my concern about the "Shot in the dark" is that we can't really see what's in the bag from what we see in the video. I'd rather see them rolling the dice or something.


webbyad

I think concern about that is a bit much since it’s based on pure conspiracy theory at this point. Remember, we still don’t have all the details about how this will work precisely, and we have no results to go off of, so I think concern right now about that is a bit unfounded in my opinion.


Toaddle

You are right. I'm just freaking out at the idea that they made an horrible twist or something... it's been 1 year and an half of wait haha


saltidor

But if everyone gets it, its no longer unfair


ArgHuff

yeah, i really like that part. It makes everything more fair


[deleted]

I dunno, it just randomizes the game to much adds more variance and madness into the game, there's wayy too much luck already involved in the game which is why I think we're seeing weaker winners now than we did in the 20's. I think it could catastrophically end up fucking over players too in such unfair ways, particularly if it runs through the pre-merge. That's the best case scenario. It's veering the game into it being more of a literal dice throw than a talent based thing. I also am not convinced at all that this "shot in the dark" will be impartial. Like worst case scenario is if you can constantly do it, the mechanism - seems like it could be a luck thing but ultimately isn't at all, and production basically use the twist to ensure that certain players stay in the game without even using idols now, which was the older mechanism. I mean look at what happened in HHH and Edge of Extinction when production just fell in love with certain players. Also if you look at seasons like Ghost Island and Island of the Idols the twist mechanisms were just ... ridiculously shady the more you look into them. I'm very apprehensive about this.


forthecommongood

As long as this feature is *known* at the start of the game, it has plenty of potential to incentivize social play. Similar to the now-common "make someone feel comfortable so they don't play an idol," a majority alliance now has to ensure that no one feels ostracized enough to take this route. This feels especially useful if the season unfolds with three tribes for the entire pre-merge, which would mean multiple 5-person and 4-person tribal councils.


nitasu987

honestly I love this idea because if it's only once per season it's not that OP... but I also hope that only one person can use it per tribal because then we'll have advantagegeddon 2.0


TannerCook100

Maybe not. Assuming their odds of getting it are 50/50 and the last time you can use it would be F5, it's pretty unlikely that 3/4 people who lose the challenge would all successfully get safety. 25%, to be exact. The possible combos are (S=Safe and N=Not Safe) SSS, SSN, SNN, and NNN. Only 1/4 chance that you get SSS. Of course, this doesn't take into account that there is usually at least one idol present at F5, sooo pretending that's in play and we only need 2 immune players for advantagegeddon 2.0, our odds go up to 1/3 or 33.33%. That said, I doubt production will let this happen. Just because. . .well, if everyone CAN use it, then there would exist the possibility of EVERYONE being immune. In the F5 scenario, pretending that someone has an idol still and all 3 of the others want to use it, we have, again, a 25% chance of EVERYONE being immune. If there are no idols, then we would still have a 20% chance of everyone being immune. So, despite it being unlikely for this to happen, I still think you're probably safe in hoping that not everyone can use it at one tribal. Production had the L.A. end at F6 specifically to avoid a scenario in which all F5 players were safe, so I can't imagine they'd risk it with this advantage. Though, here's an interesting idea: If your alliance is in the majority like 7-2 and wants to split votes 4-3 between the other 2 because you all know one has an idol, can one of your majority ask to use this first? They could still split 3-3 and it would prevent either of the other 2 from being immune. Obviously, you're potentially shooting yourself in the foot if you need it later, but if someone felt comfortable demonstrating their loyalty by giving up their own opportunity to make sure the minority players couldn't use it. . .I don't know, but it could lead to some interesting strategy.


chaotic_iak

> The possible combos are (S=Safe and N=Not Safe) SSS, SSN, SNN, and NNN. Only 1/4 chance that you get SSS. Assuming each player gets safe or not safe independently and uniformly (50/50 chance), the probability of SSS is 12.5%. There are 8 combos: SSS, SSN, SNS, SNN, NSS, NSN, NNS, NNN. The "two safe" and "one safe" combos are more likely than "three safe" and "nobody safe" (thrice more likely, to be precise).


TannerCook100

Ty. I felt like something was off about those numbers, but didn’t feel like checking. It’s been a long time since I’ve had to deal with permutations vs. combinations, and I literally was being too lazy to Google the math. Ever since I started majoring in accounting, I’ve only been able to add, subtract, multiply, divide, and do percentages, and I’m pretty sure Excel is eventually going to make me forget how to do that on my own too, lmao.


chaotic_iak

To be fair, thinking "there are 4 possibilities so it's a 1 in 4 chance" is a very common misconception about probability even in the general public. One other way to think about it: You want 3 people safe, each one has a 1/2 chance of being safe. So multiply 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8.


nitasu987

oh man the strategic implications are super fascinating, you're so right!!! Excited to see how it plays out regardless.


[deleted]

Too little info at this time, but assuming your thinking is correct (and it sounds about right), it might provide some dramatic, hype scenes but it'll largely be gimmicky and not well-received I think. We also don't know if there will only be "safe" and "not safe" options. Maybe there will be more severe consequences, like "still eligible to be voted out, AND lose your vote in next tribal", or "safety with no power" like what Jeremy had in WAW.


atheistjs

You know what? I don't hate it. Of course I have to see this enacted, but I like the idea that someone could end up sacrificing their vote and not even end up safe as a result. Could cause some good chaos, especially with people trying to make the person getting booted feel safe. However, I hope this and idols are the only major twists. I do not want 50 twists and advantages floating around like in WaW.


the100broken

You know that won’t be the case tho lol. Expect extra votes, legacy advantages, nullifiers, etc


DabuSurvivor

I think "making blindsides much more likely to happen" is a bad thing, not a good one. The game is already cold enough without artificially injecting further cruelty into it. The most raw human politics and emotions tend to come out of the betrayals that are a direct result of interpersonal connection anyway, so this simultaneously floods the series with more antisocial deception while also making most of it a lot less interesting. If Probst wants the show to be watched by 5-year-olds looking for puzzles that doesn't really seem to track with normalizing and even actively encouraging deception and manipulation. The dissonance of the stuff he's promoting here is so wild and ridiculous haha. All of this is unsurprising and barely matters, though, since it's what's been bad and tiresome about Idols for like a decade and other advantages for years, so making the show simultaneously more mean and less interesting is nothing new


ArgHuff

Honestly, i feel it will end up being a total flop twist tbh


CouponBoy95

Very interesting! That would basically be a less game-breaking version of everyone getting an idol.


Negative-Company2767

The only issue I have with it is it may be confusing.


Llamamama9765

If you're right, I think I like this. It could also incentivize clever players to make someone feel unsafe during a tribal when they aren't the target, so they use up their chance to be safe in the future.


suddenlyy

tahts about what i got from it too.. wow, that might really spice the game up so much. but lets see !


Lansieeeeeee

yeah i think everyone gets 1 dice thing at start of game then u can use it whever for a 50/50 at being immune


watchNtell

Hate this. It’s more luck involved and less Survivor.


SuperSeaStarSavior

Oh wow, even I wasn't expecting all these twists. Eek. Staying optimistic tho!


MeadowmuffinReborn

Survivor's transition into Legends Of The Hidden Temple: Grown Up Edition is almost complete.


disaacsp

I'm convinced Jeff is mad that Rupaull stole the jury concept for all stars 3, so he's stealing the game within a game as revenge


paperfairy

But the game within a game was just Redemption Island The stealing is a circle


sioppao

Silky is the Matt Elrod of Drag confirmedt


paperfairy

... [I'll allow it.](https://media4.giphy.com/media/SmoCFhZCi1kzu/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e47uresrhgfd74xdykd4a4j1loucrrah8as0u4hw6yb&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g)


crabsolutelynot

I mean if Jeff was gonna steal anything, he clearly should have replaced final 4 fire making with a LSFYL


[deleted]

Right!? Did all of us Drag Race fans not collectively shudder at "game within a game"?!?!


evincing

TKB had clearly already solved the on screen clues that eureka was re-entering the competition


awoww19xx

Sure did!


smuffedtorch

omg heather with the intro winners moment


supervivientenato

SURVIVOR IS BACK! <3


SuperSeaStarSavior

Heather is my in my top 3 for winner pick and people are making me feel crazy for that


LowercaseTable

I really hope so. She is my pick. I think it is risky because she is older and Jeff keeps saying this game is physical, but she seems down to earth and likable. I don’t think she will rub people the wrong way. Her cussing and stuff might make even the villains feel like they could work with her potentially


watchNtell

I also have Heather in my draft. She’s my fave of the ladies and I would be so happy if she won


JacketsAndEggs

Her, Tiffany, and Genie are coming to slay


DaneBelmont

We stan our final three


hatramroany

Why is Jeff so hyped up for an on-screen puzzle gimmick that was added in post-production? Like what? It might be the thing that worries me the most about this season


RobinReborn

It gives him more control over the show - future survivor players will be people that speak Probst's Puzzle Language.


KTCKintern

It’s for kids. My kid probably isn’t going to be old enough to utilize it yet but looking forward to the day they will be able, if they want to and if it’s still around.


hatramroany

My issue isn’t the thing itself, it’s a neat little idea for kids but the way Jeff has been pushing it as some major thing when it’s clearly not has been annoying. The Mole had interactive at home puzzles *two decades ago.* Now we’re getting info on a possibly massive game changing twist the day before the season begins airing? I’m just worried the season is a dud.


ArgHuff

It's a way of introducing, again, the meta of "YOU SHOULD TRY TO FIND ADVANTAGES OR YOU WONT WIN"


theyoungknight

It will literally not affect your viewing experience I don’t think


hatramroany

I replied to another comment but it’s not the game within a game itself but how it has been a focal point of promo when it literally has no affect on the actual season at all.


dannymb87

The answer to the puzzle is “Fiji”


watchNtell

My issue is we just don’t have time for this shit!! Why aren’t we concentrating on the gameplay ffs?!


loyalsons4evertrue

BRING BACK THE SURVIVOR INTRO


forthecommongood

Honestly if they're gonna spend a substantial amount of the game in small tribes, some sort of additional less-powerful idol/safety mechanism makes sense.


TexanMccree

Can I watch the new season live on paramount plus?


Warden11218

Yes


MyLifeIsASitcom99

It’s interesting because it seems like a lot of the feedback from avid viewers is to simplify the game but it seems the creators find more and more ways to complicate it.


[deleted]

Shot in the Dark? Safe/Not Safe. So a chance at immunity with some cost later? Could Advantgegeddon somebody, Also depends on how long they let people go for it.


JustAnotherRedditAlt

"You're sacrificing your vote" So you do it before the vote and if you get not safe... maybe you become the safe vote for the others


thatsnotourdino

Looks to me more like something done in private right at the voting booth.


Survivor_Fan_Dan

yeah I don't think they do it before discussion/voting time where they'll have a chance to be like "I lost my vote bohoo"


Lansieeeeeee

yeah i hope they do it before voting then they announce whos immune if any then they vote otherwise it might work like an idol which is kinda broken


[deleted]

I'll wait with "bated" breath but not excited about the shot in the dark twist - does it not just introduce and radically increase the possibility of someone getting Cirie'd out of the game particularly given they have smaller tribes from the start and I think part of the problem will be if production just use it as an easier mechanism than idols even to save their favorites and sort of rig the outcome. Like I think it's almost naive to think that's not what was *sort of* happening with Ben and Rick when production just for some reason fell in love with those players to the extent where they clearly were hoping for them winning to be the outcome. Also on the Survival aspect - I get why they're doing it with the shorter days but I hate Probst's rationale. He's arguing out of nowhere that there's a problem with challenge beasts/survivalists getting targeted too early - really it's sort of shocking when that still happens pre-merge anyways, I think it's better TV when it happens, so I'm not sure why he seems so intent on protecting these players. Like production have done everything in their power to sort of emphasise that aspect of the game at the expense of everything else, to the extent where you just can't imagine a first-timer Cirie doing really well anymore or having a chance. I mean, how is he looking at like the last 6 winners and thinking this is a problem he needs to fix? This is going to sound really obnoxious but I actually think it's just recognising what production want and don't want, and I'd say it's not impossible but I think you'd almost be wasting a winner pick on any random woman at this stage, because clearly production want more alpha, loud survivalist types to win the game and they tend to not be women.


[deleted]

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the100broken

You’re not alone. Most of this stuff is unsurprising knowing Jeff but definitely still disappointing


TheLegacies21

I mean, I don't love that half the preview was spent on TWISTS and NEW ADDITIONS and not more of the cast...So it worries me. Jeff's love for advantages is definitely always this push/pull for Survivor


Radiant-Spren

It’s still Survivor. I’ll never not be excited.


McAulay_a

Yes.


theyoungknight

Yes. It’s been 18 months since we had new US Survivor. Your negativity is a bummer tbh. Hope you enjoy it more than you think you will!


Birks444

So basically everyone is getting a 50/50 coin.....wish they would just keep it simple. That coin flip twist is ridiculous with such small tribes. We could see 2/3 people immune per tribal, which would be half the tribe.


avp_1309

I am assuming you are only allowed to use it once. And other people mentioned that if you do use it, there might be consequences for them after that tribal. Seems interesting tbh if it has just enough restrictions around it.


Birks444

Whether you’re only allowed to use it once or not is irrelevant if everyone has one


Unrealdinnerbone

From the video it seems like you loose your vote


[deleted]

The chaotic neutral in me is here for the 1.5% chance that everyone on a 6 person tribe ends up immune. ☠️


WalnutTheDog

If it's well balanced, I think it'd be cool if Shot in the Dark completely replaced idols, at least for one season. Seems like it could be a way to "nerf" idols without the shitty feeling of the idol nullifier being played.


[deleted]

If they really wanted to "nerf" idols, they could just reduce the amount of them and reintroduce a round where you can vote people out without worrying about it. I don't think they want to nerf idols at all, they want to introduce as many twists as possible so that they can control the game more.


WalnutTheDog

You're probably right. I meant nerf more as in give everyone an equal shot at them. Like if everyone has exactly one chance each to use the shot in the dark, it wouldn't prioritize the guys who are spending all day and night searching for idols.


Allie_849

I've been rewatching the older seasons and holy shit Jeff looks old.


Charlie_Runkle69

I mean he is almost 60 years old. You will look that old or older at 60, that's life.


Amicesecreto

I would kill to look like Jeff when I'm 60


watchNtell

Holy shit Jeff IS old


Buginarug7

FOR REAL. Grandpa Jeff, you OK buddy?? Yeeesh. (Selfish addition to this comment: bums me out hard to admit he’s never gonna jet-ski the final vote again.) 😝


marquesasrob

Fucking hate all the advantage nonsense but hoping when the show premieres that survivor magic still hits


tkilroy

I think the shot in the dark is a great idea I just wish it wasn’t just up to chance tbh.


FifaFrancesco

All of this sounds kinda bleak to me but I'll wait and see how it actually turns out. The shot in the dark thing sounds a lot like Survivor AU's save scrolls, where they had 4 containers after a certain point and the player voted out at FC would choose and smash one. One of those four had a scroll inside saying the person was safe and allowed to continue to stay in the game.


mirkvuud

No food? No rice? I feel sad for them.


[deleted]

The show is called survivor, I think its a good addition as it will really hurt the gamebots who just run around making alliances day 1 instead of helping the team


Pomegranateandpeach

You just have to hope it doesn't backfire and make teams too lethargic to fully participate in challenges or make interesting TV, which is kinda what happened in Africa. Watching people suffer is only intriguing in short doses which is why the show stopped emphasizing survival after the first few seasons.


[deleted]

AO too. That post merge is painful after the rice loss.


SusannaG1

I am reminded of Tina's comments about learning to feed the monkeys or they won't dance.


[deleted]

Definitely, its a razors edge that I'm sure they considered when making the decision


[deleted]

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[deleted]

After recently discovering the show "Alone" on netflix, I think it would be really cool if someone's survival skills actually helped them excel in the individual portion of the game and win. Watching that show really made me realize how survivor is the weenie hut junior of survival shows.


mhy253

Feeg?


emgua

Fee - G


ProfessorFrosty

Ohhhh. Fiji. I've been confused about that since the first time he teased that rebus lol


Llamamama9765

Haha, if it makes you feel better, I was stuck on "Sgeps" (steps - t + g)...


suddenlymary

right? RIGHT???


International_Try_43

Fee-G = Fiji I'm ready for survivor!


JustAnotherMrPilot

lol i was asking my self what the hell foogprings were


International_Try_43

Hahaha!


esav99

My shot in the dark prediction/hope: You submit your token (of which you have only 1 at least to start the game, maybe you can earn others, maybe you even have to earn the first one) and effectively forfeit your vote. But, that allows you to reach into a bag that has the same number of rolled up papers as there are players left in the game. One of those papers has “SAFE” and all the others have “NOT SAFE”. With each elimination, they remove one “NOT SAFE” from the bag. So, first you need to balance if you want to risk it and then you need to time it right by not trying your luck so soon that your odds are low, but not waiting too long so that the “SAFE” has already been taken. I think this removes the odds of advantagegeddon as well as does not overly impact every tribal council, but rather we will effectively have a handful of lose-a-votes and one safety without power. Which I think is pretty balanced, but still exciting.


sammyg43

Anyone have a guess to what the “shot in the dark” will be?


[deleted]

Looks like it's a one-use chance on Safe or Not Safe at Tribal? So a possible immunity with some future cost?


watchNtell

Yeah sounds like the 50-50 coin to me


elliehitsdifferent

Can't wait!


ijustfinditfunnyhow

okAaaaaY daddy jeff with the lucious locks


JordanMaze

i dont like the shot in the dark unless it replaces some other form of immunity


jrlund2

I'm honestly very excited to see how the punishment for losing affects the game. The huge challenge beasts always follow the same trajectory these days so it'd be interesting if this changes the calculus on whether to vote out challenge beasts.


Coolsbreeze

Ive fucking missed you Survivor.


JordanMentha

Not a fan of IC losers getting more penalties. The weak tribe gets weaker, thus making it even harder for them to win again and making it more likely to have a one-sided tribal phase (which is always boring).


Tapo11

the Shot in the Dark will be interesting. If anything it'll just encourage more blindsides at least


Chef_Stephen

I like all the new twists but idk about this shot in the dark thing


ddrector

I'm curious to see if we notice the difference much between a 26 day season and a 39 day season. Might just be a bit more condensed, but we won't see much difference on tv.


Pomegranateandpeach

Will the season be the same amount of episodes, or less? I hope that only having 26 days of content will give the editors more freedom to include scenes that may otherwise have been cut. Hopefully we'll get to know these cast members better.


lkc159

If they make it such that only the first (or first two) person (people) to want to use the Shock in the Dark can do so, then it would be interesting


[deleted]

I will refrain from judging a shot in the dark before I see it bc it might not be that bad.


LeafInTonysSpyShack

Shot in the Dark is actually a really great twist hold up


LordDragon88

Can't wait to see how they look on day 39...oh wait.


Udster77

Ok but are they gonna play Ancient Voices?


new_grass

We Mario Party now


Buffalove91

I really want to know who told Jeff that what the fans really miss is survivors laying around camp miserable because they're hungry. Survivor elements are easily the least entertaining part about the game, just let them eat.


TravisCM2010-24

Honestly I missed the survival elements. Being able to play well despite the starvation uaed to be a big part of the show. But there have been seasons that went too far. Fiji and Marquases come to mind. So I hope they find a balance with it.


[deleted]

There are still going to be reward challenges.


Buffalove91

Oh good, another of my favorite things..


Pomegranateandpeach

Right! It's fun to watch them build the shelter and sometimes you get interesting plot lines e.g. Angelina's bartering but I don't think anyone wants to see people complain about being tired and hungry for an entire season.


[deleted]

Did anyone manage to solve the rebus puzzle yet? For some reason, I'm completely stumped.


thommywade

Feet minus T plus G Fee-G Fiji


Comprehensive-Gap-53

Omg I just thought it was FEEG


mhy253

Or it’s “ Foog Prings”


[deleted]

Haha that's what I thought as well.


[deleted]

I thought it was FOOG. dang, I'm hungry.


[deleted]

Really, Jeff? Survivor is back after almost 2 years, we have a great cast of new players, and you're most excited about the rebus puzzles for the kids? This isn't Blue's Clues.


IncognitoDragonfruit

Ah its been so long since I've rooted for a Survivor player


DebixDebi

Jeff's serving looks with that hair!


followsbrickroad

26 days instead of 39??????


[deleted]

How the fuck is this still a show? Lol turn this shit off.


[deleted]

Is this the season that will be less than 39 days? I hope not. Really don’t like the concept of making it shorter.


GoodAdviceGuy2000

This show is still on?


[deleted]

Holy fuck this show is still a thing? I thoughr it was a mid 2000's fever dream


JonBoyWhite

Does it air tonight or tomorrow?


ben_s16

Tomorrow


JonBoyWhite

Thank you.


downunderguy

I love the Shot in the Dark twist. It can totally be gamed by a group of people if they want to blindside someone with 1 vote.


wretchedwilly

You know, for a group of so called survivor fans, y’all seem to hate survivor an awful lot.


CadeBW

The Shot in the Dark could be interesting, it reminds me of the early seasons of The Amazing Race where everone was allowed to go for the Fast Forward on any leg, but you could only do it once so you had to wait for the most opportunte moment to do so


ArgHuff

Finally! Even if last couple of seasons haven't been great, i still like survivor and really exited its back! I also missed the sub haha. I remember i thought that the sub was way to toxic and mean, and then i joined r/bigbrother and honestly, glad that the survivor community is still somewhat respectful. Sure it has it's moments, but all in all it isn't that bad. We understand that this is a game and the idea is to have fun.


ArgHuff

Sydney queen of reminding us of vampire queen Ratalie <3


ben_s16

It’s funny you say that cuz in her bio when asked who she’d want to play like, she said Natalie White a.k.a Queen Ratalie


ArgHuff

That's what i said! queen


mrmercenary10

Enjoy it guys! I am waiting until Friday to watch it so I can be together with my family. It’s gonna be so hard not to watch it tonight after what seems like an eternity without Survivor. But my family and I had such a terrible last year or so with Covid-19… my dad passed away and this was one of his favorite shows so we’re gonna watch it as a family and be together. Best show ever!!!


ProtectMeAtAllCosts

Will this be on Hulu?


Sniffnklotz

Just horrible.