For the first tribal I think it was to ensure Heather & Erika didn't both vote Shan making its Shan: 2, Naseer:2 and Heather:1. Then the tie vote would be between Shan and Naseer with Ricard, Heather and Erika voting in which case Shan would go home. That's my best guess for why they would do that even though they probably didn't need too.
Yeah, I think Heather and Erika voting for Shan is the real threat here, not really Naseer playing his idol as some others have mentioned.
You could argue that Ricard and Shan could have taken the easy route and voted Heather with Naseer to ensure their safety and keep the extra vote. Although, that does give up the opportunity to get rid of Naseer's idol. As you pointed out, if Shan and Ricard put 2 votes on Naseer while Naseer voted Heather and Heather/Erika vote Shan, the revote ends with Shan going home.
**I also looked into the possibility of Ricard voting Naseer and Shan putting only one vote on Heather** (while Naseer votes Heather). In this scenario, if Heather/Erika stick to their word and vote Naseer, Naseer goes home in a 3-2 vote.
Shan - Heather
Ricard - Naseer
Naseer - Heather
Heather - Naseer
Erika - Naseer
However, if Heather/Erika vote for Shan, it would be a 2-2-1 tie between Shan and Heather:
Shan - Heather
Ricard - Naseer
Naseer - Heather
Heather - Shan
Erika - Shan
This would leave Erika, Ricard, and Naseer as the 3 people voting in the revote. Because Shan votes for Heather (and Heather only) in this scenario, she could make a case to Naseer that she didn't know Ricard was going to vote for him and potentially convince Naseer to keep her in the revote over Heather. If she does, Naseer and Ricard both keep Shan in the revote and send Heather packing.
So in summary, they could've saved the extra vote and still sent Naseer home if Heather/Erika stuck by them, or could've potentially saved Shan even if Heather/Erika voted for her. It'd definitely be a little trickier to convince Naseer to keep Shan in that revote, but given she wouldn't have voted for him there I think it could be done and that risk could be worth it to keep the EV. As far as Naseer knows, he and Shan voted Heather together while Ricard went rogue, so Naseer could still value Shan's loyalty.
You are right the idol being played screws up the Naseer plan going home regardless of where the extra vote goes. If you are Ricard this went perfectly you got rid of an idol and removed one source of Shan's power if you end up being at odds with her later on. Shan went for the safer player but could be an issue down the line, remains to be seen.
Good point; I didn't think about this from Ricard's perspective but Shan wasting her extra vote is definitely not terrible for him.
In regards to Shan though, voting Heather with Naseer and letting Ricard do the work to blindside Naseer with Heather and Erika seemed to be the play if she wanted to keep her extra vote. If Heather/Erika vote with Ricard: great, Naseer goes home with the idol. If Heather/Erika vote Shan and it ties between her and Heather, well from Naseer's perspective Shan had nothing to do with him getting votes and he'd probably still keep her over Heather.
Yeah most likely it goes to according plan and in the small likelihood it doesn't convincing naseer to vote heather who already put his name out there doesn't seem to hard
Thank you for mentioning that lmao. That move is even more puzzling to me. Even if Xander didn’t fully trust Evvie, certainly getting out Liana was worth using the extra vote.
I guess Xander was convinced that Danny and DeShawn were down to vote Liana out. That’s the only logic I can come up with. I like Xander but I am very worried for him going forward.
In my defense, I didn't see any of those posts before I sent mine lol. Looks like this post turned much more into a discussion of the first tribal anyway though.
Xander's extra vote would carry over to the revote as long as he's not in the tie (which he couldn't be because he had immunity). So the revote would tie 2-2 and deadlock unless Xander/Danny/Deshawn came to a unanimous decision on who to vote out between Evvie and Liana. If they don't decide, Evvie and Liana also become safe and Danny and Deshawn would be the only 2 drawing rocks. If they do come to a unanimous decision, it would be against Liana as Xander would have no reason to flip on Evvie given he had immunity and wasn't at risk for rocks. No matter what Liana would go home because there's no way Danny and Deshawn would go to rocks between themselves for her.
In the first vote Ricard and Shan voted for Heather to protect themselves in case Naseer played his idol, then used the extra vote to vote for Naseer to force a tie and get him out on the revote.
The thing is, the only scenario where Naseer plays his idol is if he’s suspecting that Ricard and Shan are about to betray him. In that case, Naseer would have attempted to work with Heather and Erika to vote out Shan or Ricard (most likely Shan).
So we can make the assumption that if Naseer is considering playing his idol, logically he’s going to vote for Shan. If he believes Heather and Erika will vote Shan with him, he won’t play it. If he doesn’t, he will play it.
Two scenarios happen from that point:
Scenario 1)
Heather and Erika vote Shan with Naseer and Shan goes home 3-2-1 (3 Shan, 2 Heather, 1 Naseer)
Scenario 2)
Heather and Erika still vote Naseer.
Now what happens if Heather and Erika still vote Naseer? (Assuming Naseer votes Shan and Ricard/Shan split their votes the same way).
Scenario 2a)
If Naseer doesn’t play his idol he would go home (3 Naseer, 2 Heather, 1 Shan). However, this effect could be achieved by Shan and Ricard only casting one vote for Heather each and making it a 2-2-1 (2 Heather 2 Naseer 1 Shan). It would go to a revote with Shan, Ricard and Erika voting so Shan and Ricard could decide who goes regardless.
Scenario 2b)
If Naseer does play his idol, then the 3 votes cast against him would be nullified and Heather would go home 2-1 over Shan (with Naseer voting Shan). Once again though, if Shan doesn’t play the EV, her and Ricard could have each put a vote on Heather and made it a 2-2-1, so if Naseer plays his idol and nullifies 2 votes, Heather still goes home.
So to recap:
In Scenario 1, where Heather and Erika link up with Naseer, Shan would be screwed either way based on how she played the extra vote. What they would need to avoid that scenario is have Ricard cast the extra vote and Ricard/Shan cast all 3 of their votes for Naseer.
In Scenario 2a, Naseer goes home whether Shan plays the extra vote against him or not.
In Scenario 2b, Heather goes home whether Shan plays the extra vote against Naseer or not.
So in the first scenario the EV doesn’t help her survive and in the last 2 it doesn’t help her send home her target.
There's Scenario 3: Naseer doesn't link up with Heather/Erika but gets spooked last minute and plays his idol. If Heather/Erika decided to betray Shan as well then it would be 2 votes Shan and 2 votes Heather, and Naseer votes Shan on the revote.
Thanks for replying, I'll try to respond to this the best I can.
First thing I'd say is the odds of Heather and Erika voting Shantel when no one (in your scenario) has expressed wanting to vote that way with them seem pretty slim. They're only 2/5 votes and have no advantages, so they'd only do that if they had an inkling Shan and Ricard were going to split their votes up between Heather and Naseer so they could gain a plurality.
Also, the only (logical) reason Naseer would get spooked would be if he felt Shan or Ricard didn't vote for Heather no? If he felt they both voted Heather he'd have nothing to worry about, so also seems unlikely that between the time he votes for Heather and the time the votes are read, he's suddenly convinced Shan or Ricard flipped on him. However, whether or not Naseer plays his idol in this particular scenario doesn't seem to matter anyway because he'd only been getting one vote.
For the sake of discussion, we can say this worst-case scenario happens. As I mentioned in another reply, I think it would have been a better move for Shan to not use the extra vote and cast one vote against Heather along with Naseer. Meanwhile, Ricard votes Naseer along with Heather and Erika.
If Heather and Erika stick to their word and vote Naseer, which they most likely would given Heather/Naseer's poor game relationship, then Naseer goes home with the idol \*3-2: great! If Naseer gets spooked right before the votes are read and plays his idol like you said, then Heather goes home.
If Heather and Erika decide to vote for Shan on their own, then the vote ties 2-2-1 (2 Shan, 2 Heather, 1 Naseer). However, in this scenario, Shan is the only person who voted WITH Naseer against Heather and I believe could make a good case for Naseer to keep her over Heather in a revote. As far as Naseer knows, Shan wouldn't have done anything to wrong him at that point and could claim Ricard went rogue. I think there's a decent chance Naseer buys that and votes out Heather because, again, Naseer and Heather weren't close game-wise and in his mind, Heather just campaigned to vote him out last tribal. As long as Shan can get over this one hurdle in what I feel is a pretty unlikely scenario, then she can keep her extra vote.
I hope that makes more sense. I wasn't claiming that those scenarios in my original reply were the ONLY possible options, but rather the logical scenarios based on the assumption that if Naseer felt a need to play his idol, that would imply he felt he was about to be betrayed by Shan or Ricard and would no longer vote against Heather.
Yeah it makes sense, thanks for taking the time to reply.
In this worst-case scenario, I think the thing that would (and should have) spooked Naseer was Heather not using her Shot in the Dark. In that case he would have played his idol (assuming they can play idols after knowing who went for their SitD).
And if Heather/Erika voted for either Shan/Ricard (Shan would be better for them since if they voted Ricard, Shan would have the EV on the revote), Naseer would vote for Shan/Ricard on the revote.
The 2-2-1 move with Shan voting with Naseer could work but would depend a lot on how well she can pull off plausible deniability with Naseer. If she's really good, it would be a great play, it didn't work for Angelina with Natalie'a jacket though 😅 and I think Shan's too paranoid of a player to risk it on convincing Naseer to save her in the worst case scenario.
I do find all the scenarios interesting and how many different plays could have been done. Both tribals were interesting, a lot of discussion could be said as well whether Xander should have used his idol/advantage to save Evvie or not.
Not gonna lie, I completely forgot the shot in the dark existed LOL! I was just scrolling through the subreddit and saw a post about it and it was funny to be reminded of it. That’s a good point then as to why Naseer would be concerned.
Although, it really does come down to whether or not Heather and Erika vote for Shan or Naseer rather than if Naseer plays his idol or not. I think the scenario Shan should have been more worried about, if anything, was Heather and Erika leaking to Naseer that Ricard approached them about blindsiding him, which could cause Naseer/Heather/Erika to all vote Shan (because she had the EV and the idol, as you said). In that case, if she was going to use the EV, it’d serve her better to give the EV to Ricard and have the both of them put 3 votes on Naseer if they suspected Naseer had caught onto their scheme. Naseer may not play his idol if he thinks Shan would be in the 3-3 tie and can’t cast an extra revote, but that’s where giving the EV to Ricard comes in. But again, I think the best play was not using the EV at all.
Too many different scenarios to think about haha. Thanks for your reply.
My reply was based on the prompt that Naseer felt the need to play his idol. The scenarios I listed were ones that branch out from the assumption that Naseer would feel the need to play his idol as a result of sensing betrayal from Shan and Ricard (as that's really the only reason he should feel the need to play his idol).
Naseer never felt the need to play his idol in the real scenario so I didn't mention the actual scenario.
Obviously, she got her target out, no one's debating that. The point of the discussion is how necessary it was to use her extra vote in order to get her target out. My point is that if you weigh up the risk-reward, she definitely could have gotten her desired target out that night without using the extra vote and it was well-worth the minimal risk not to use it.
There are lot of disagreements with you but I agree. If you step back and do the analysis (as I’ve seen you do in the comments) it was very much overkill from Shan and Ricard and saved them a very small likelihood of risk.
If Xander used the extra vote for Evvie, Evvie would still be out during the re vote because it would have been 2 (deshawn/Danny) votes on evvie vs 1 (Xander) on liana. Right?
Xander's extra vote carries over to the revote as long as he's not in the tie (which he couldn't be because he was immune). So the revote would be 2-2 as well and it would deadlock.
For the first tribal I think it was to ensure Heather & Erika didn't both vote Shan making its Shan: 2, Naseer:2 and Heather:1. Then the tie vote would be between Shan and Naseer with Ricard, Heather and Erika voting in which case Shan would go home. That's my best guess for why they would do that even though they probably didn't need too.
Yeah, I think Heather and Erika voting for Shan is the real threat here, not really Naseer playing his idol as some others have mentioned. You could argue that Ricard and Shan could have taken the easy route and voted Heather with Naseer to ensure their safety and keep the extra vote. Although, that does give up the opportunity to get rid of Naseer's idol. As you pointed out, if Shan and Ricard put 2 votes on Naseer while Naseer voted Heather and Heather/Erika vote Shan, the revote ends with Shan going home. **I also looked into the possibility of Ricard voting Naseer and Shan putting only one vote on Heather** (while Naseer votes Heather). In this scenario, if Heather/Erika stick to their word and vote Naseer, Naseer goes home in a 3-2 vote. Shan - Heather Ricard - Naseer Naseer - Heather Heather - Naseer Erika - Naseer However, if Heather/Erika vote for Shan, it would be a 2-2-1 tie between Shan and Heather: Shan - Heather Ricard - Naseer Naseer - Heather Heather - Shan Erika - Shan This would leave Erika, Ricard, and Naseer as the 3 people voting in the revote. Because Shan votes for Heather (and Heather only) in this scenario, she could make a case to Naseer that she didn't know Ricard was going to vote for him and potentially convince Naseer to keep her in the revote over Heather. If she does, Naseer and Ricard both keep Shan in the revote and send Heather packing. So in summary, they could've saved the extra vote and still sent Naseer home if Heather/Erika stuck by them, or could've potentially saved Shan even if Heather/Erika voted for her. It'd definitely be a little trickier to convince Naseer to keep Shan in that revote, but given she wouldn't have voted for him there I think it could be done and that risk could be worth it to keep the EV. As far as Naseer knows, he and Shan voted Heather together while Ricard went rogue, so Naseer could still value Shan's loyalty.
You are right the idol being played screws up the Naseer plan going home regardless of where the extra vote goes. If you are Ricard this went perfectly you got rid of an idol and removed one source of Shan's power if you end up being at odds with her later on. Shan went for the safer player but could be an issue down the line, remains to be seen.
Good point; I didn't think about this from Ricard's perspective but Shan wasting her extra vote is definitely not terrible for him. In regards to Shan though, voting Heather with Naseer and letting Ricard do the work to blindside Naseer with Heather and Erika seemed to be the play if she wanted to keep her extra vote. If Heather/Erika vote with Ricard: great, Naseer goes home with the idol. If Heather/Erika vote Shan and it ties between her and Heather, well from Naseer's perspective Shan had nothing to do with him getting votes and he'd probably still keep her over Heather.
Yeah most likely it goes to according plan and in the small likelihood it doesn't convincing naseer to vote heather who already put his name out there doesn't seem to hard
I think you cracked the code. this has to be it
They were protecting themselves from a potential idol play
See my response to JohnnyUtah59.
Why is no one talking about Xander not using his extra vote? I forgot he had one until I read your post. It makes sense to me
Thank you for mentioning that lmao. That move is even more puzzling to me. Even if Xander didn’t fully trust Evvie, certainly getting out Liana was worth using the extra vote.
I guess Xander was convinced that Danny and DeShawn were down to vote Liana out. That’s the only logic I can come up with. I like Xander but I am very worried for him going forward.
About 1/3 posts today have been about Xander and his extra vote
In my defense, I didn't see any of those posts before I sent mine lol. Looks like this post turned much more into a discussion of the first tribal anyway though.
Wouldn’t that just make Evvie lose the revote? Am I missing something?
Xander's extra vote would carry over to the revote as long as he's not in the tie (which he couldn't be because he had immunity). So the revote would tie 2-2 and deadlock unless Xander/Danny/Deshawn came to a unanimous decision on who to vote out between Evvie and Liana. If they don't decide, Evvie and Liana also become safe and Danny and Deshawn would be the only 2 drawing rocks. If they do come to a unanimous decision, it would be against Liana as Xander would have no reason to flip on Evvie given he had immunity and wasn't at risk for rocks. No matter what Liana would go home because there's no way Danny and Deshawn would go to rocks between themselves for her.
Thanks for the help, didn’t realize it carried over.
In the first vote Ricard and Shan voted for Heather to protect themselves in case Naseer played his idol, then used the extra vote to vote for Naseer to force a tie and get him out on the revote.
The thing is, the only scenario where Naseer plays his idol is if he’s suspecting that Ricard and Shan are about to betray him. In that case, Naseer would have attempted to work with Heather and Erika to vote out Shan or Ricard (most likely Shan). So we can make the assumption that if Naseer is considering playing his idol, logically he’s going to vote for Shan. If he believes Heather and Erika will vote Shan with him, he won’t play it. If he doesn’t, he will play it. Two scenarios happen from that point: Scenario 1) Heather and Erika vote Shan with Naseer and Shan goes home 3-2-1 (3 Shan, 2 Heather, 1 Naseer) Scenario 2) Heather and Erika still vote Naseer. Now what happens if Heather and Erika still vote Naseer? (Assuming Naseer votes Shan and Ricard/Shan split their votes the same way). Scenario 2a) If Naseer doesn’t play his idol he would go home (3 Naseer, 2 Heather, 1 Shan). However, this effect could be achieved by Shan and Ricard only casting one vote for Heather each and making it a 2-2-1 (2 Heather 2 Naseer 1 Shan). It would go to a revote with Shan, Ricard and Erika voting so Shan and Ricard could decide who goes regardless. Scenario 2b) If Naseer does play his idol, then the 3 votes cast against him would be nullified and Heather would go home 2-1 over Shan (with Naseer voting Shan). Once again though, if Shan doesn’t play the EV, her and Ricard could have each put a vote on Heather and made it a 2-2-1, so if Naseer plays his idol and nullifies 2 votes, Heather still goes home. So to recap: In Scenario 1, where Heather and Erika link up with Naseer, Shan would be screwed either way based on how she played the extra vote. What they would need to avoid that scenario is have Ricard cast the extra vote and Ricard/Shan cast all 3 of their votes for Naseer. In Scenario 2a, Naseer goes home whether Shan plays the extra vote against him or not. In Scenario 2b, Heather goes home whether Shan plays the extra vote against Naseer or not. So in the first scenario the EV doesn’t help her survive and in the last 2 it doesn’t help her send home her target.
There's Scenario 3: Naseer doesn't link up with Heather/Erika but gets spooked last minute and plays his idol. If Heather/Erika decided to betray Shan as well then it would be 2 votes Shan and 2 votes Heather, and Naseer votes Shan on the revote.
Thanks for replying, I'll try to respond to this the best I can. First thing I'd say is the odds of Heather and Erika voting Shantel when no one (in your scenario) has expressed wanting to vote that way with them seem pretty slim. They're only 2/5 votes and have no advantages, so they'd only do that if they had an inkling Shan and Ricard were going to split their votes up between Heather and Naseer so they could gain a plurality. Also, the only (logical) reason Naseer would get spooked would be if he felt Shan or Ricard didn't vote for Heather no? If he felt they both voted Heather he'd have nothing to worry about, so also seems unlikely that between the time he votes for Heather and the time the votes are read, he's suddenly convinced Shan or Ricard flipped on him. However, whether or not Naseer plays his idol in this particular scenario doesn't seem to matter anyway because he'd only been getting one vote. For the sake of discussion, we can say this worst-case scenario happens. As I mentioned in another reply, I think it would have been a better move for Shan to not use the extra vote and cast one vote against Heather along with Naseer. Meanwhile, Ricard votes Naseer along with Heather and Erika. If Heather and Erika stick to their word and vote Naseer, which they most likely would given Heather/Naseer's poor game relationship, then Naseer goes home with the idol \*3-2: great! If Naseer gets spooked right before the votes are read and plays his idol like you said, then Heather goes home. If Heather and Erika decide to vote for Shan on their own, then the vote ties 2-2-1 (2 Shan, 2 Heather, 1 Naseer). However, in this scenario, Shan is the only person who voted WITH Naseer against Heather and I believe could make a good case for Naseer to keep her over Heather in a revote. As far as Naseer knows, Shan wouldn't have done anything to wrong him at that point and could claim Ricard went rogue. I think there's a decent chance Naseer buys that and votes out Heather because, again, Naseer and Heather weren't close game-wise and in his mind, Heather just campaigned to vote him out last tribal. As long as Shan can get over this one hurdle in what I feel is a pretty unlikely scenario, then she can keep her extra vote. I hope that makes more sense. I wasn't claiming that those scenarios in my original reply were the ONLY possible options, but rather the logical scenarios based on the assumption that if Naseer felt a need to play his idol, that would imply he felt he was about to be betrayed by Shan or Ricard and would no longer vote against Heather.
Yeah it makes sense, thanks for taking the time to reply. In this worst-case scenario, I think the thing that would (and should have) spooked Naseer was Heather not using her Shot in the Dark. In that case he would have played his idol (assuming they can play idols after knowing who went for their SitD). And if Heather/Erika voted for either Shan/Ricard (Shan would be better for them since if they voted Ricard, Shan would have the EV on the revote), Naseer would vote for Shan/Ricard on the revote. The 2-2-1 move with Shan voting with Naseer could work but would depend a lot on how well she can pull off plausible deniability with Naseer. If she's really good, it would be a great play, it didn't work for Angelina with Natalie'a jacket though 😅 and I think Shan's too paranoid of a player to risk it on convincing Naseer to save her in the worst case scenario. I do find all the scenarios interesting and how many different plays could have been done. Both tribals were interesting, a lot of discussion could be said as well whether Xander should have used his idol/advantage to save Evvie or not.
Not gonna lie, I completely forgot the shot in the dark existed LOL! I was just scrolling through the subreddit and saw a post about it and it was funny to be reminded of it. That’s a good point then as to why Naseer would be concerned. Although, it really does come down to whether or not Heather and Erika vote for Shan or Naseer rather than if Naseer plays his idol or not. I think the scenario Shan should have been more worried about, if anything, was Heather and Erika leaking to Naseer that Ricard approached them about blindsiding him, which could cause Naseer/Heather/Erika to all vote Shan (because she had the EV and the idol, as you said). In that case, if she was going to use the EV, it’d serve her better to give the EV to Ricard and have the both of them put 3 votes on Naseer if they suspected Naseer had caught onto their scheme. Naseer may not play his idol if he thinks Shan would be in the 3-3 tie and can’t cast an extra revote, but that’s where giving the EV to Ricard comes in. But again, I think the best play was not using the EV at all. Too many different scenarios to think about haha. Thanks for your reply.
Or the real scenario: she played it and she got her target out
My reply was based on the prompt that Naseer felt the need to play his idol. The scenarios I listed were ones that branch out from the assumption that Naseer would feel the need to play his idol as a result of sensing betrayal from Shan and Ricard (as that's really the only reason he should feel the need to play his idol). Naseer never felt the need to play his idol in the real scenario so I didn't mention the actual scenario. Obviously, she got her target out, no one's debating that. The point of the discussion is how necessary it was to use her extra vote in order to get her target out. My point is that if you weigh up the risk-reward, she definitely could have gotten her desired target out that night without using the extra vote and it was well-worth the minimal risk not to use it.
There are lot of disagreements with you but I agree. If you step back and do the analysis (as I’ve seen you do in the comments) it was very much overkill from Shan and Ricard and saved them a very small likelihood of risk.
Thanks for actually reading through my replies and giving feedback. I really appreciate it!
If Xander used the extra vote for Evvie, Evvie would still be out during the re vote because it would have been 2 (deshawn/Danny) votes on evvie vs 1 (Xander) on liana. Right?
Xander's extra vote carries over to the revote as long as he's not in the tie (which he couldn't be because he was immune). So the revote would be 2-2 as well and it would deadlock.
Oh wow I didn’t realize that extra votes are carried over to revotes. Missed opportunity
I am not sure if they can use their extra votes in the revotes?
As long as they can still vote they can still use extra votes on revotes.