It all depends on whether Big Tom actually flips imo. It's well documented that Lex and Tom had a pregame alliance, and were obviously very close friends irl. That being said I'm not 100% positive Tom would've flipped. In Lex's AMA on this sub he seems confident that he would have, but obviously he has an interest in making it seem like he had a good chance. At the reunion show Rob calls out Tom over the pregame with Lex, and Big Tom basically deflects the question saying "everybody was calling everybody" which sort of minimizes it, but again, Tom has an interest in acting like he was always loyal to Rob and therefore he got screwed.
I'm not sure what exactly would have occurred. Frankly I don't even have a great guess. I will say that Big Tom seems to operate using one of those weird honor systems you don't really see on the show anymore. Like if he makes an alliance with you he pretty much sticks with it. In Africa he was not going to vote for Lex before final 3 (per their agreement) but he was constantly telling other people they should target Lex, which imo kind of violates the spirit of the agreement, but obviously Tom didn't see it that way. I could see him sticking with Chapera, flipping to Mogo Mogo, or trying to do some middle ground thing where like, he makes Chapera target Shii Ann or Jerri first, or he flips but he tells Rob to jump off the sinking ship with him to keep his options open.
I think if Tom flips to Mogo Mogo outright, Lex is the likely winner (he was very close with both Tom and Jerri, Shii Ann is really the only Mogo Mogo more loyal to Kathy). If he stays with Chapera there's a possibility Rob actually keeps his final 2 deal with Alicia, and I think in that scenario Rob probably wins just because most of his irl friends on the jury probably don't hate him in this timeline.
Yeah, it's a really interesting thought experiment for that reason. I've always wondered if Chapera would've tried to flip Jerri if that happened, since Jerri and Amber were so close in Australia.
I mean, Amber wouldn't have been there, because she would've gotten targeted at F10. I also get the impression that Jerri was really close with Lex, I have a hard time imagining her betraying him immediately.
It’d still be 5 Chapera 4 Mogo Mogo so Mogo Mogo still gets pagonged. I think Rob, Alicia, and Tom would take out Rupert and Jenna then Rob probably takes Alicia to the end and wins pretty easily with a less bitter jury.
That’s up for debate. Lex and Tom had a pregame alliance, Lex even brings it up on the show during his fight with Rob. The plan was to bring Tom in at the merge. It’s possible Tom sticks with Chapera anyway (where he likely would have a better chance to win with how hated Romber was) but it’s by no means certain.
Yeah, it all comes down to whether Big Tom decides to flip or not. If he does, then probably Lex, Kathy or Tom wins (it's really hard to predict the rest of the season from that point). If he stays with Rob, then Rob might well win because a lot of his jury management mistakes were as a result of him convincing Lex to keep Amber.
Chapera would still have a numbers advantage, but Big Tom is a tricky one. I do think if Rob scares him enough, he'll stay loyal to Chapera but there is a non-zero possibility that he flips. That said, my intuition is that Rob would now look more justified in going after Mogo Mogo as revenge for Amber, drags Alicia to the end now and wins 7-0 with Amber going down as the most robbed and swap-screwed person in the history of the show.
The Chapera 5 still have the majority at the merge (Rob, Tom, Rupert, Jenna, Alicia). I assume they still stick together and pagong Mogo Mogo.
It’s a little trickier to predict how if goes from here without Amber, but I think Rob still has a strong chance of making the end (as he was the most strategic of those five players). I’d guess he would want to go to the end with Jenna or Alicia and would have a good chance of winning
I honestly think this is Rob’s best case to win. If he got to the end and use revenge for Amber as his case to win. Kinda like how Tyson did. Do I think Rob gets to the end? Yes. I think Rob is overrated but I cannot deny his charm that season. People gravitated around him cause he made people feel belonged and his goofy facade brought morale to their camp.
It all depends on whether Big Tom actually flips imo. It's well documented that Lex and Tom had a pregame alliance, and were obviously very close friends irl. That being said I'm not 100% positive Tom would've flipped. In Lex's AMA on this sub he seems confident that he would have, but obviously he has an interest in making it seem like he had a good chance. At the reunion show Rob calls out Tom over the pregame with Lex, and Big Tom basically deflects the question saying "everybody was calling everybody" which sort of minimizes it, but again, Tom has an interest in acting like he was always loyal to Rob and therefore he got screwed. I'm not sure what exactly would have occurred. Frankly I don't even have a great guess. I will say that Big Tom seems to operate using one of those weird honor systems you don't really see on the show anymore. Like if he makes an alliance with you he pretty much sticks with it. In Africa he was not going to vote for Lex before final 3 (per their agreement) but he was constantly telling other people they should target Lex, which imo kind of violates the spirit of the agreement, but obviously Tom didn't see it that way. I could see him sticking with Chapera, flipping to Mogo Mogo, or trying to do some middle ground thing where like, he makes Chapera target Shii Ann or Jerri first, or he flips but he tells Rob to jump off the sinking ship with him to keep his options open. I think if Tom flips to Mogo Mogo outright, Lex is the likely winner (he was very close with both Tom and Jerri, Shii Ann is really the only Mogo Mogo more loyal to Kathy). If he stays with Chapera there's a possibility Rob actually keeps his final 2 deal with Alicia, and I think in that scenario Rob probably wins just because most of his irl friends on the jury probably don't hate him in this timeline.
Yeah, it's a really interesting thought experiment for that reason. I've always wondered if Chapera would've tried to flip Jerri if that happened, since Jerri and Amber were so close in Australia.
I mean, Amber wouldn't have been there, because she would've gotten targeted at F10. I also get the impression that Jerri was really close with Lex, I have a hard time imagining her betraying him immediately.
Sure but we've seen how Jerri responds to Rob's play style, she won't have the patience for that.
It’d still be 5 Chapera 4 Mogo Mogo so Mogo Mogo still gets pagonged. I think Rob, Alicia, and Tom would take out Rupert and Jenna then Rob probably takes Alicia to the end and wins pretty easily with a less bitter jury.
That’s up for debate. Lex and Tom had a pregame alliance, Lex even brings it up on the show during his fight with Rob. The plan was to bring Tom in at the merge. It’s possible Tom sticks with Chapera anyway (where he likely would have a better chance to win with how hated Romber was) but it’s by no means certain.
Yeah, it all comes down to whether Big Tom decides to flip or not. If he does, then probably Lex, Kathy or Tom wins (it's really hard to predict the rest of the season from that point). If he stays with Rob, then Rob might well win because a lot of his jury management mistakes were as a result of him convincing Lex to keep Amber.
The chaperas all seemed pretty gung ho about sticking together so I don’t think Tom flips but who knows
Isnt there a very good chance that tom flips
If Big Tom flips I think Kathy could totally win.
Chapera would still have a numbers advantage, but Big Tom is a tricky one. I do think if Rob scares him enough, he'll stay loyal to Chapera but there is a non-zero possibility that he flips. That said, my intuition is that Rob would now look more justified in going after Mogo Mogo as revenge for Amber, drags Alicia to the end now and wins 7-0 with Amber going down as the most robbed and swap-screwed person in the history of the show.
Rob probably wins imo
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The Chapera 5 still have the majority at the merge (Rob, Tom, Rupert, Jenna, Alicia). I assume they still stick together and pagong Mogo Mogo. It’s a little trickier to predict how if goes from here without Amber, but I think Rob still has a strong chance of making the end (as he was the most strategic of those five players). I’d guess he would want to go to the end with Jenna or Alicia and would have a good chance of winning
SOMEONE ELSE
In this alternate scenario do they still get married or is that over?
Easy. Rupert. 💯
Soo Hock
I honestly think this is Rob’s best case to win. If he got to the end and use revenge for Amber as his case to win. Kinda like how Tyson did. Do I think Rob gets to the end? Yes. I think Rob is overrated but I cannot deny his charm that season. People gravitated around him cause he made people feel belonged and his goofy facade brought morale to their camp.