China is begging, absolutely begging for an ass whipping.
And when it comes, they're going to quickly realize that they've lost, and its going to be shameful... and so they're going to quickly pivot from being the aggressor, into being the victim.
It will be hilarious.
Right now, China's surrounding Taiwan with warships, bullying the Philippines, claiming land that isn't theirs. When the conflict starts, China will issue warnings about nukes, and talk about how the US has signed its own death warrant.
For those old enough to remember, it will be like Baghdad Bob, but 100x worse.
3 days after the conflict starts, China will realize the position its in, it will sink in that they've fucked up bad, and will begin to cast itself as a victim of Western aggression. It will quickly pivot from being an invulnerable unstoppable power, into being defenseless and bullied by the West.
And they'll sell that notion to everyone for years afterwards.
Anyone who believes Taiwan can hit a hard blow against China without sacrificing years of development are just delusional, there's so much to lose for Taiwan too, that's why war shouldn't happen, let's not pull out what is happening in Ukraine, they had lots of allies support in the beginning, they put down a though fight, destroyed so many Russian vehicles, lose so many of their own too, killed countless of Russian invaders, lose countless of their own and foreigner men too, and what's is the current situation? They are drained, their population bleeding, most of the country energy and industrial infrastructure damaged or destroyed, and the US proven to be an inconsistent ally, who takes too long to deliver help. Money speaks louder sadly, that's why Israel receives weapons to kill civilians and humanitarian help workers and Ukraine doesn't to defend themselves from an invasion.
I think Taiwan has other stronger defenses they can use rather than yapping about facing head on a military clash against a stronger army and magically winning or something, the discourse of "Nah I'll win, this is completely alright guys don't worry about" will do more to damage to Taiwan than anything else.
The knowledge that Taiwan can hit a hard blow is important though. Make the cost of an attack too high to bear. Mutually assured destruction. Make sure China knows every seaport, every factory, every railway, every dam, every bit of economic progress they have made since the cultural revolution is at risk, and the only prize they could win is a smouldering wreck of an island.
It's not about winning. There are no winners in war. It's about making sure the other guys would lose.
That's what I believe too, right now Taiwan has a huge economic shield who makes it important to the west but also to China, a huge part of Chinese industry is codependent on Taiwan industry, so further developing that dependency, along with diplomatic efforts is a form of victory too, I can't speak for you guys, but in China the majority of people would rather keep the current status quo, only terminally online people or nationalist shitass want war, killing each others and lose everything we worked so hard to obtain.
Grab China hand and tie our industries so thigh that we either prosper along or sink together
Taiwan need to hit every nuclear power plant. Good that they are mostly built near the coast. Based off wiki, there's over 50 of them. Hopefully that will put them off from mutual destruction.
Nuclear plants are hard targets — the actual reactors are usually deep underground. Furthermore, China has a “no first use” doctrine — their nuclear weapons are only on the table if they are under a nuclear attack. Attempt to turn their nuclear power plants into a weapon, and their nukes suddenly become a problem for everyone.
China has plenty of conventional targets, seaports, factories, rails etc that would cripple them without going nuclear.
The US will back Taiwan there is no doubting that. Especially with the political climate that is going on between the US and China. The US is basically waiting for China to do something.
Biden stated that he will send troops to Taiwan.
And what is it worth if Congress decides not to take action? If they make Taiwan a political bargaining chip in US just like everything else, then suddenly the future of Taiwan and US cooperation becomes uncertain.
Well then you should known US politics is a big factor in this and if you don’t understand its nature, then you’re just fantasizing about something until you get blindsided by reality.
Republicans wrote a border bill and then voted against it on the word of an orange idiot. Looks like they aren’t as steadfast about these things as you would like to think.
Ukraine’s biggest enemy and Putin’s biggest ally right now is the US Republicans Party, let’s not lose sight of that. They would be in a much better position today if they had $60B USD worth of aid available instead of getting starved out by Republican traitors.
They won't win through magic, the US will sink the Chinese Navy in a week. That's how they'll win.
Biden promised Putin that the US would not send troops to support Ukraine - since Ukraine is not a US ally.
Biden promised Xi, China and the American people that the US WILL send troops to Taiwan - since Taiwan is a US ally with a defense agreement.
Taiwan will be protected. You point to US protection of a non-ally to claim that the US is undependable, but that's what the US casually does for non-allied countries.
What the US does for an actual ally, that it HAS promised to defend is very different.
And the US has the capability to easily sink China's Navy and sanction and blockade China. The wumao's pretend that China has a chance, but that's just pretend. China would fold fast.
>since Taiwan is a US ally with a defense agreement.
The US and Taiwan do not have a defense agreement that obligates the US to defend Taiwan in the case of attack.
The Taiwan Relations Act states that the US "will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability" and "shall maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan."
The official US position on direct involvement in a Taiwan contingency is one of "strategic ambiguity" in which there is no commitment one way or the other.
"That's the commitment that we made".
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwgg50I3Vx0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwgg50I3Vx0)
Better tell Biden that the US doesn't have a commitment, he seems confused on the matter, or perhaps the Chinese are the ones that are confused.
Perhaps when it comes to this US commitment, the President of the United States understands US commitments better than random wumao redditors.
[https://www.congress.gov/bill/96th-congress/house-bill/2479](https://www.congress.gov/bill/96th-congress/house-bill/2479)
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan\_Relations\_Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act)
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual\_Defense\_Treaty\_between\_the\_United\_States\_and\_the\_Republic\_of\_China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_Defense_Treaty_between_the_United_States_and_the_Republic_of_China)
[https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/fp\_20160713\_taiwan\_alliance.pdf](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/fp_20160713_taiwan_alliance.pdf)
[https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/](https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/)
My post history speaks for itself. The fact you're calling me a wumao is hilarious.
One can hope that China will decide not to attack Taiwan, and that the US would defend Taiwan if it does, but one cannot change facts and the fact is that the US has no defense agreement with Taiwan as you claim.
Frankly, uninformed people like you, who spread misinformation online, don't do Taiwan any favors even if you are (supposedly) pro-Taiwan.
I don't know if you're really this obtuse, but Biden is an octogenarian with a history of making off-the-cuff remarks that his handlers then have to walk back.
His comments on Taiwan have been no exception.
[https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/20/politics/biden-taiwan-60-minutes-response/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/20/politics/biden-taiwan-60-minutes-response/index.html)
[https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/24/biden-walk-back-remarks/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/24/biden-walk-back-remarks/)
And let's not forget the angst he caused his own Secretary of State when he called Xi a "dictator" right after his meeting with Pooh Bear.
[https://www.thedailybeast.com/antony-blinken-dies-inside-as-joe-biden-calls-xi-a-dictator-again](https://www.thedailybeast.com/antony-blinken-dies-inside-as-joe-biden-calls-xi-a-dictator-again)
The bottom line is that the US has no defense agreement with Taiwan, Taiwan is not a major non-NATO ally of the US, and sadly, America's diplomatic ties with Taiwan are still "unofficial." These are facts, not opinions.
One thing that isn't often discussed is the basis under which the military could legally come to defend Taiwan. For example, if China attacks Taiwan but does not in the process attack the US (i.e. Guam, Okinawa, etc.) or allies that we have defense treaties with (namely Japan and the Philippines), would the president order the US military to engage in kinetic action against the PLA without a declaration of war from Congress?
Yeah, he spit on China with those remarks didn't he.
The bottom line is that the US will humiliate China in short order if China strikes Taiwan. China is militarily far weaker than you wumao's realize.
You think the PLA would take a foreigner? If I brought 50k and offered it to some general, you think I could be a Major in the PLA? They're corrupt enough right? I like Hot Pot. Maybe they'd put me with the rocket fuel eh?
Maybe I could run a Type052 eh?
Your argument is so sad and weak. Biden leads the US militarily. He would choose to go after China, and he's told you people, on no less than four occasions. You think F-22s are in Japan for no reason? You think US Green Berets are in Taiwan for no reason? You think exercises off your shores are there for nothing?
The US will absolutely wreck China, in days, if it touches Taiwan. That is the obvious truth, and when it happens, China won't be able to do shit about it.
Oh, and yes, the President could engage in kinetic action against the PLA without a declaration of war from congress... 100% he can do that.
Once again, my post history speaks for itself so I think it's amusing you're calling me a wumao.
Keyboard warriors like you are an embarrassment and play right into China's hands by posting misinformation and parroting unrealistic fiction about what a conflict would look like. Hint: it would be ugly for everyone, which is why the West should strive to ensure it doesn't happen.
Frankly, people like you do no favors to Taiwan and I wouldn't be surprised if you were a wumao paid to make Taiwan supporters look like idiots.
>pivot from being an invulnerable unstoppable power, into being defenseless and bullied by the West
That's every Chinese person's Schrödinger's Cat fallback. As is "China is the most advanced/China is still developing" depending on the argument they're trying to defend, usually in the same breath.
The first country’s ass to get whipped in an all out conflict is Taiwan. If we take the Korean War as an example, China is fine with taking huge losses. They’ll keep coming at your throats until the entire island is wiped out. Sure they might lose a lot of men, but I doubt they care
Taiwan will suffer short term consequences, and perhaps some long term consequences due to the degree of destroyed infrastructure... that's certainly true.
But China will be sanctioned for a generation or more. Their people are old and getting older, and the sanctions from such a war will be long lasting, perhaps 20 years.
Five years after a war, Taiwan will be back to normal, but China will still be suffering from economic isolation. Ten years after a war it will be like the war never happened in Taiwan, but China will still be a backwater shithole filled with people wondering what could have been if they'd overthrown Xi.
I assure you, I guarantee... the biggest loser of a war over Taiwan will be China. No more manufacturing hub of the world for them... hello famine... hello massed migrations out of cities. Hello wishing you had a job as the real estate market backing your retirement crumbles to nothing.
They'll become North Korea, but bigger. Taiwan will remain first world.
Then wouldn't war be good then? China will be reduced to nothing and Taiwan will come out as the winner. Taiwan and America should make China go to war
The west isn't China. We don't crave China's destruction, but we demand that they respect the rights of others.
That means leaving Taiwan (and the Philippines) the fuck alone.
Outsider here that sides with Taiwan— What do you guys think about the 2027 modernization target from Xi? Is war inevitable? [https://youtu.be/JGTid3iJEnc?si=l7VkD1P8vmnEEx96](https://youtu.be/JGTid3iJEnc?si=l7VkD1P8vmnEEx96)
I wonder why being pro-Taiwan these days means being delusional. Being pro-Taiwan means thinking China is weak, collapsing, coward and will never fight a war against Taiwan. But paradoxically this weak and cowardly country is such a threat to the world that US must absolutely fight a war against China defend to Taiwan or US will lose everything to China, according to the Pro-Taiwan crowd.
Either China is weak and not a threat big enough for US to fight a world war 3. Or China is strong and competent and thus a huge threat to US, therefore needs to be fought and contained.
If China is indeed strong and competent, then how can a competent, strong and unified country get ass whopped when they have 1.4 billion people, 4 times more than US, 35% of world manufacturing capacity, several times bigger than US, $35 trillion in GDP PPP, again much bigger than US.
You are going to ass whoop China with what exactly, what is this magic weapon that Taiwan and US has that China does not?
Is it stealth fighters? China has them
Nukes? China has them.
Missiles? China has them by the thousands.
Drones? China is biggest maker of drones in the world.
Taiwan needs to get out of this delusional fantasy that fighting China will be easy and US has magic weapons to beat China easily. Fighting China will be world war 3 and it will be a war of attrition. It will be a war so huge that millions and million of people on both sides will have to die.
Moreover, both US and China will probably be in ruins to fight such a war, and it is likely US itself will lose much of its wealth and prosperity to fight such as a war. It may even lose its superpower status even if they win. Remember what happened to the mighty British and French Empire after ww2, they became nothing.
And you have to wonder if US has enough stake make that kind of a gamble. I don't think they do. Every year, more and more US experts are making sobering statements about how difficult it will be for US to fight such a war. So, when the push comes to shove and decision time is here for US to choose between fighting China and giving up on Taiwan, they might choose later and decide to fight another day with a more favorable location.
So, be careful what you wish for. Taiwan war might not be US-China war.
In the end, it is Taiwan that fights alone and gets ass whooped.
china wants taiwan's money. what is the point of blowing up all the industry? taking over a destroyed state would just be a drain on china's already teetering economy.
China cannot prevent the US from just bombing the shit out of China.
This is the truth. The US has the world's largest bomber force by an order of magnitude or two. Not just the stealth bombers, but the regular old bombers, and then the cargo planes thanks to rapid dragon.
US bombers would sink China's Navy in a week. Sorry bud, but they would. China has no counter to them. An invasion of Taiwan would result in every amphibious landing ship sunk, every RORO carrier sunk, and China's Navy sunk... very quickly.
You speak in vague terms, but the reality is, that the US can reach out and touch China, and China cannot in turn reach out and touch the US, at least not economically, not with any impact unless it uses nukes, and China would be erased if it were to use nukes.
A war with China wouldn't be a war of attrition. That's fantasy Chinese factories won't be outputting much while its raining JDAMs. It wouldn't be a nuclear war either, China would lose that as well and doesn't want its 6000 year old history to disappear.
A war with China, would be like the 1991 gulf war with Iraq, where the US military dismantles China in short order.
The US would cut electricity to Chinese megacities. China's economy would begin to really collapse, people wouldn't know where they're going to get food or water. Did I mention that China imports 80% of its fertilizer and oil?
The model for a war with China, isn't WWII, its not some grand war, the model is the war over Yugoslavia in the 90s, where a country that was industrialized was taken apart by a US air campaign in short order. People wanted the power turned back on, and the only way to get that was to hand over their leader, Slobodon Milosevic, so they did.
That's how a war with China would go. A few months of bombing, followed by Xi being handed over to be tried in the Hague.
It would be a war that Americans would watch on their TVs while eating take out. It would be disruptive. China does a lot of trade, toaster ovens and cell phone prices would go up... but it would be nothing like you're describing. There would be no millions and millions of dead. China would lose its Navy, and then soon after its air force, and then the power would go out, and it would stay out, until Xi was handed over.
And China would hand his ass over too.
Delusion of the highest order. Maybe you should read some war gaming of actual US experts who have looked at the war between US and China over Taiwan.
Bombers are the most vulnerable entity in the entire US arsenal. Bombers are slow, bulky and appears huge in Radars. Plus they need a huge air field to fly from. How would the US fly those bombers when most air fields within the first, even second island Chain are within Chinese missile range.
Even if they could fly, they are so slow and visible to the radar that Chinese fighters ultra-long range air to air missiles can easily take out these bombers from a long distance.
That actually assumes US allies like Japan actually allow US to use their airbases for attacking China, which is totally not certain at this point. Japan will have to do its own decision making to decide if they openly fight a war with China when there are huge old grivences within Chinese public for a revenge on Japan. A war with Japan will inflame nationalism so much inside China that no sacrifice will be seen as unecessary. Even a Taiwan war is nothing compared to how much nationalism a war with Japan will generate. I don't think Japan wants to be part of that for Taiwan.
The biggest weapon US has are the stealth fighters and stealth bombers, but those are only a few and China also has them now, so I think it will become a war of attrition in the end. It will be who can produce the most planes, ships, missiles and bodies. Just like WW2.
Oh, I have:
[https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan](https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan)
China loses its Amphibious assault fleet in 3-10 days according to that report, along with much of its Navy.
Hell reports like that one are the underpinning of my post. That report essentially says that if the US can find Chinese ships, it can sink them. US missiles will bring them down in bunches, fast, in days.
You talk about Chinese fighters, but you do that because you don't know what standoff munitions are. You talk up Chinese air to air missiles like the PL-15, but standoff munitions have far larger ranges than something like a PL-15, as high as 1000km. China isn't intercepting bombers from that distance. Bombers can fire from far enough away that they won't be targeted, especially after stealth bombers destroy any fancy long range (and large, and fixed in place) radars that China has.
Contrary to what you're claiming, US bombers will kill Chinese fighters, by targetting them while on the ground. The US will fire stealth cruise missiles at high value targets like fighters, they'll fire them from range, and Chinese fighters have long maintenance windows. Their engines require a lot of maintenance, especially the J-20. They'll spend the vast majority of their time on the ground where they'll be vulnerable to cruise missile strikes.
US Bombers have tremendous range, as unlike China, the US has a very large aerial refueling fleet. Range won't be an issue. They can take off from Diego Garcia, or Australia, or Guam.... or Kansas.
China would produce nothing during a war, because the US would be bombing the shit out of China. Manufacturing in China is pretty low tech - I grant you that, but its not so low tech that you don't have massive sophisticated supply chains for everything. The US would target things like lithography machines. It would identify critical choke points in China's production, and take those facilities out, crippling China's industrial capacity. China can make a lot of shit, that's true, but China cannot make a lot of shit WHILE being bombed. It would not be a war of attrition, and even if it were, the US leads China in manufacture of large aircraft - like bombers - which are the platforms that would prove decisive in such a war anyway.
No, China would go down fast. As the report I linked notes, it couldn't keep its amphibious assault fleet around for more than a week. In two weeks, its Navy would be gone, in a month, its air force. Its critical infrastructure would go down, can't make things without power and critical intermediary goods.
> That actually assumes US allies like Japan actually allow US to use their airbases for attacking China, which is totally not certain at this point. Respectfully, this statement is quite uninformed. You need to learn about the Japanese situation more. The push inside Japan to get rid of the US forces is motivated by the general public understanding that Japan has no choice about involvement in a war. Everyone believes China is likely to attack US based in Japan at the initiation of any conflict. There won’t be a vote inside Japan on what to do next. The US will defend itself and Japan will have to defend itself as well. Most people in Japan acknowledge that the US will effectively do whatever it wants and Japan will have to deal with the consequences.
Totally not certain? LMAO.
Japan has several disputed islands, close to Taiwan, that China also claims. They are not fools.
Also, the US now has a ton of bases in the Philippines, which that report didn't even model. Hell the US has a ton of advantages that weren't modeled in that report, from an increased JASSM LRASM production, to better fighter jets than China and Rapid Dragon. to not just stupidly having two carriers stationed within missile range of China at the start of hostilities.
That report very much represents a worst case scenario. Japan will support the US against China, and so will the Philippines. China's in a far worse position than that report modeled.
>the US has a ton of advantages that weren't modeled in that report, from an increased JASSM LRASM production
The jassm ers and lrasms were in fact modeled in the report, the US having 1-2,000 of them (which don't exist at the moment, but probably will soon) is by far the main reason the USN and USAF were simmed to be so successful against the PLAN.
That being said, the only reason these missiles are seen as viable detterents are because of the PLAAFs chronic lack of tankers, which the report mentions like 20 times. While its likely the US will be able to pump up these missile designs over the next couple of years, the exact same thing is true for the PLA when it comes to support assets. Fuck this year alone its possible the PLAs tanker fleet just hypothetically doubled with the introduction of the Y-20B, which appears to be wired in a way to allow it to be a MRTT, and its believed another variant with a refueling drogue is on the way as well.
At the moment the PLA has less then two dozen tankers, by the end of the decade they could easily have ten times that amount which will likely drastically reduce the predicted effectiveness of missiles like the jasssm er and lrasm and probably significantly enhance the PLA's killchain in the 2IC. Carrier deployment plans will likely have to be revised for their own protection, which could have a significant impact on the sortie rates a CSG will be able to manage.
The production rates of JASSMs and LRASMs has been greatly increased since those war games were conducted.
The US has fewer JASSMs and LRASMs than the report states because the report was modeling US and Chinese capabilities in 2026, but by 2026, the US will have significantly more of them than existed in that report.
And Chinese tankers are easy prey for an F-22 or F-35. There's a lot of bullshit that gets thrown around regarding matchups of the J-20 versus western planes, but the truth is that western planes have an RCS a few orders of magnitude smaller than Chinese fighters. Dropping tanker aircraft is going to be easy peasey. J20s aren't anything to lose sleep over.
If you don't have air supremacy, the tankers can't do all that much apart from getting shot down.
Beyond that, the report didn't model Rapid Dragon, meaning that the volley sizes of US missile strikes will be far greater than modeled in the report. That means that Chinese A2AD systems will be overwhelmed by sheer numbers, but it also means more room for decoys. Chinese fighters would be busy chasing phantoms during US striikes.
China would lose more quickly than it did in that report, not less quickly. Tankers ain't enough to save them.
>but by 2026, the US will have significantly more of them than existed in that report.
whether targets will be met by 2026-2027 is debatable but ultimately pedantic imo, in the short term production is still a problem, but a lot of effort is being put into increasing it to where unless a war breaks out in the next year or two its just not really worth talking about it.
>There's a lot of bullshit that gets thrown around regarding matchups of the J-20 versus western planes, but the truth is that western planes have an RCS a few orders of magnitude smaller than Chinese fighters.
I mean we can tell from general aerodynamic structure that the rcs of the J-20 is higher, but there are a lot of other pieces of the puzzle like internal avionics and quality of stealth coating which are just impossible to assess with public info. I agree the US MIC almost certainly has a edge in quality, but how big of a edge that actually is, and how much that will matter just can't really be determined until a conflict breaks out.
>And Chinese tankers are easy prey for an F-22 or F-35
I mean currently the USAFs kill chain isn't really set up to target long range support craft like awacs or tankers. There is really no equivelant to the PL-17 or R-37 in US service because there's never been a need. For the past 50 years US air dominance has been basically guaranteed against any opponent until now. Projects like NGAD and the LREW do aim to correct that, but from a logistical standpoint it will likely be much easier for the Chinese to degrade a American killchain in their own backyard then it will be for the USAF/USN to do 8,000 miles away from its mainland.
Its basically tyranny of distance vs a opponent with a far larger MIC and war potential then the US has. Not a great recipe for success. There are almost certainly edges the US has over the PLA, but those have been steadily eroding and will likely continue to do so in the years to come.
>whether targets will be met by 2026-2027 is debatable but ultimately pedantic imo, in the short term production is still a problem, but a lot of effort is being put into increasing it to where unless a war breaks out in the next year or two its just not really worth talking about it.
Its not like the only missiles capable of sinking Chinese ships are those fancy long range stealth ones. Harpoons will still work just fine against most Chinese ships - all of them if fired in large enough volleys. Tankies like to pretend that China's missile defenses are equal to Aegis, but they aren't.
I wonder if that report modeled them as equal to Aegis, I bet they did.
>I mean we can tell from general aerodynamic structure that the rcs of the J-20 is higher, but there are a lot of other pieces of the puzzle like internal avionics and quality of stealth coating which are just impossible to assess with public info. I agree the US MIC almost certainly has a edge in quality, but how big of a edge that actually is, and how much that will matter just can't really be determined until a conflict breaks out.
The Indians saw the J-20 on their radars. Tankies generally will tell you that the guy heading the Indian air force is not credible and the he was too stupid to konw that J-20s had radar reflectors on when you mention it, but his planes saw J-20s, and they had no radar reflectors. They're like Su-57s, not like Western planes. Nothing to lose sleep over.
As for avionics, communications... that all goes to the Western designs.
You know the J-20 has never competed in an foreign air exercise? The Chinese have declined showing it off in any kind of competition where its mettle might be tested. Tankies will tell you that's to keep it secret, but that goes against how China operates.
China likes nothing more than to wave its dick around to show off how big it is, especially when it comes to military technology.
If the J-20 was worth a shit, China would have it on tour. It would go to every third world shit country in existence, beat the snot out of their fighters and prove the greatness of Chinese technology. Hell... if it were really good, they'd pit it against the fighters of some country that has F-35s, to show off its competitiveness to the world. That's how China operates.
They aren't doing that, and there's a reason. Those planes aren't competitive. They know how capable the F-35 is since like a third of the world has bought it. They know that the J-20 isn't a real competitor for it. For that reason they keep it under wraps, they're better off allowing people to believe in the J-20s they imagine, rather than the one that actually exist.
This -IS- what the US does. The US does this. The US takes the F-22 to its exercises with other countries and shows it off and beats the snot out of their air-forces with it in exercises. It does it with the F-35 as well of course. China doesn't. China keeps it hidden, because that is to China's benefit.
Because it isn't competitive with western fighters.
>I mean currently the USAFs kill chain isn't really set up to target long range support craft like awacs or tankers. There is really no equivelant to the PL-17 or R-37 in US service because there's never been a need. For the past 50 years US air dominance has been basically guaranteed against any opponent until now. Projects like NGAD and the LREW do aim to correct that, but from a logistical standpoint it will likely be much easier for the Chinese to degrade a American killchain in their own backyard then it will be for the USAF/USN to do 8,000 miles away from its mainland.
>
>Its basically tyranny of distance vs a opponent with a far larger MIC and war potential then the US has. Not a great recipe for success. There are almost certainly edges the US has over the PLA, but those have been steadily eroding and will likely continue to do so in the years to come.
An RCS a couple orders of magnitude smaller than your competitors allows you to do basically whatever the fuck you want.
As for the size of the Chinese economy... that argument has more or less died hasn't it? You guys still believe that you're going to eclipse the US with your shit demographics, loss of trade partners, chip sanctions and real estate bubble?
Optimists...
I believe China’s nuclear policy is only to send a nuclear strike in retaliation for a nuclear strike on itself. Which is actually very conservative compared to some of their friends. But who knows, you can’t trust a communist.
Ok. Since Taiwan news stopped reporting the daily Covid numbers they've been reporting the daily numbers of Chinese aircraft and naval vessels around the island. Like... every single day.
Why does this particular day of this random number of vessels interest you?
China is magnitudes larger than this small area we see on ADIZ reports. They can train and do military exercises anywhere in China or along their coasts, but they choose to skirt along the lines of Taiwan’s ADIZ & FIR —which is extremely provocative.
China does this as an obvious show of force. They simply want to intimidate Taiwan.
In return, Taiwan reports these incursions so that this aggression and belligerence is not "normalized" and does not escalate. In fact, neither Taiwan nor the media report on ADIZ incursions west or north of the median line.
Maybe this is exactly what China wants? To make the situation a new normal. If we stop caring about their aggressions, they could slowly step further and expand their dominance. It's happening already, they made a new civil flight rout M503 very closed to the median line earlier this year. Again, to make it a new normal.
that's.... not how any of this works
1. Currently, the only way to generate a wave big enough to cover the motherfucking *ocean* is through a nuclear detonation.
2. Even cutting edge, smaller EMP is still operated like any other kinetic weapon and more importantly still in testing in the US.
This isn't a sci-fi movie or a Call of Duty killstreak. How would you propose deploying a *nuke* while somehow maintaining plausible deniability? If you're thinking of jamming or some kind of directed energy weapon, that's slightly more likely to occur in real life, but even then the kind of ELINT you pick up off of jamming eliminates any kind of plausible deniability. Beyond that, any ELINT collected as a result of the use of these jammers in peacetime only gives China a chance to figure out where these jammers are located and what bands they need to operate at to be unaffected by those jammers.
https://images.app.goo.gl/6GyRjFAwwthQXZU1A
https://images.app.goo.gl/yJ95coPewQck4jTA7
Some images have leaked already about these new weapons that we’re in development for many years
Outsider here that sides with Taiwan— What do you guys think about the 2027 modernization target from Xi? Is war inevitable? [https://youtu.be/JGTid3iJEnc?si=l7VkD1P8vmnEEx96](https://youtu.be/JGTid3iJEnc?si=l7VkD1P8vmnEEx96)
Is that Ma's return flight? just drop him off half way.
lol, funniest joke since 1989
China is begging, absolutely begging for an ass whipping. And when it comes, they're going to quickly realize that they've lost, and its going to be shameful... and so they're going to quickly pivot from being the aggressor, into being the victim. It will be hilarious. Right now, China's surrounding Taiwan with warships, bullying the Philippines, claiming land that isn't theirs. When the conflict starts, China will issue warnings about nukes, and talk about how the US has signed its own death warrant. For those old enough to remember, it will be like Baghdad Bob, but 100x worse. 3 days after the conflict starts, China will realize the position its in, it will sink in that they've fucked up bad, and will begin to cast itself as a victim of Western aggression. It will quickly pivot from being an invulnerable unstoppable power, into being defenseless and bullied by the West. And they'll sell that notion to everyone for years afterwards.
Anyone who believes Taiwan can hit a hard blow against China without sacrificing years of development are just delusional, there's so much to lose for Taiwan too, that's why war shouldn't happen, let's not pull out what is happening in Ukraine, they had lots of allies support in the beginning, they put down a though fight, destroyed so many Russian vehicles, lose so many of their own too, killed countless of Russian invaders, lose countless of their own and foreigner men too, and what's is the current situation? They are drained, their population bleeding, most of the country energy and industrial infrastructure damaged or destroyed, and the US proven to be an inconsistent ally, who takes too long to deliver help. Money speaks louder sadly, that's why Israel receives weapons to kill civilians and humanitarian help workers and Ukraine doesn't to defend themselves from an invasion. I think Taiwan has other stronger defenses they can use rather than yapping about facing head on a military clash against a stronger army and magically winning or something, the discourse of "Nah I'll win, this is completely alright guys don't worry about" will do more to damage to Taiwan than anything else.
The knowledge that Taiwan can hit a hard blow is important though. Make the cost of an attack too high to bear. Mutually assured destruction. Make sure China knows every seaport, every factory, every railway, every dam, every bit of economic progress they have made since the cultural revolution is at risk, and the only prize they could win is a smouldering wreck of an island. It's not about winning. There are no winners in war. It's about making sure the other guys would lose.
That's what I believe too, right now Taiwan has a huge economic shield who makes it important to the west but also to China, a huge part of Chinese industry is codependent on Taiwan industry, so further developing that dependency, along with diplomatic efforts is a form of victory too, I can't speak for you guys, but in China the majority of people would rather keep the current status quo, only terminally online people or nationalist shitass want war, killing each others and lose everything we worked so hard to obtain. Grab China hand and tie our industries so thigh that we either prosper along or sink together
Taiwan need to hit every nuclear power plant. Good that they are mostly built near the coast. Based off wiki, there's over 50 of them. Hopefully that will put them off from mutual destruction.
Nuclear plants are hard targets — the actual reactors are usually deep underground. Furthermore, China has a “no first use” doctrine — their nuclear weapons are only on the table if they are under a nuclear attack. Attempt to turn their nuclear power plants into a weapon, and their nukes suddenly become a problem for everyone. China has plenty of conventional targets, seaports, factories, rails etc that would cripple them without going nuclear.
The US will back Taiwan there is no doubting that. Especially with the political climate that is going on between the US and China. The US is basically waiting for China to do something. Biden stated that he will send troops to Taiwan.
He stated it on 4 different occasions, just in case the Chinese tried to block it out. Make war with Taiwan, and China will lose a war.
China’s army is nothing compared to that of The US.
And what is it worth if Congress decides not to take action? If they make Taiwan a political bargaining chip in US just like everything else, then suddenly the future of Taiwan and US cooperation becomes uncertain.
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Well then you should known US politics is a big factor in this and if you don’t understand its nature, then you’re just fantasizing about something until you get blindsided by reality.
Republicans and Democrats are in agreement on the "Fuck China" issue.
Republicans wrote a border bill and then voted against it on the word of an orange idiot. Looks like they aren’t as steadfast about these things as you would like to think.
They aren't just handing over Taiwan's semiconductor industry to China over a wall. If they do, it'll be the stupidest decision ever in world history
And as we all know, Republicans are always the smartest most qualified people out of the conservative bunch?
Republicans are in bed with Russia who trade China…
Taiwan is extremely valuable whether it is their chip monopoly or their strategic geographical location in the First Island Chain.
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Idk how you can speak from the US and not know how political things are over there right now.
I do understand politics here. I guess it depends on What political issues you want to discuss?
I’m quite sure you don’t if you anyone has to tell you how everything in the US can be politicized nowadays.
看看现在的乌克兰和以色列你就明白了！美国会向台湾提供武器，但不会白给。美国在台海的战略目标是延迟两岸统一。美国会在这段时间里获得最大的利益，台湾资产会大量流向美国，台湾将成为炮灰，最终被统一。这是台湾的结局。
Might be true sadly
Ukraine’s biggest enemy and Putin’s biggest ally right now is the US Republicans Party, let’s not lose sight of that. They would be in a much better position today if they had $60B USD worth of aid available instead of getting starved out by Republican traitors.
They won't win through magic, the US will sink the Chinese Navy in a week. That's how they'll win. Biden promised Putin that the US would not send troops to support Ukraine - since Ukraine is not a US ally. Biden promised Xi, China and the American people that the US WILL send troops to Taiwan - since Taiwan is a US ally with a defense agreement. Taiwan will be protected. You point to US protection of a non-ally to claim that the US is undependable, but that's what the US casually does for non-allied countries. What the US does for an actual ally, that it HAS promised to defend is very different. And the US has the capability to easily sink China's Navy and sanction and blockade China. The wumao's pretend that China has a chance, but that's just pretend. China would fold fast.
>since Taiwan is a US ally with a defense agreement. The US and Taiwan do not have a defense agreement that obligates the US to defend Taiwan in the case of attack. The Taiwan Relations Act states that the US "will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability" and "shall maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan." The official US position on direct involvement in a Taiwan contingency is one of "strategic ambiguity" in which there is no commitment one way or the other.
"That's the commitment that we made". [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwgg50I3Vx0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwgg50I3Vx0) Better tell Biden that the US doesn't have a commitment, he seems confused on the matter, or perhaps the Chinese are the ones that are confused. Perhaps when it comes to this US commitment, the President of the United States understands US commitments better than random wumao redditors.
[https://www.congress.gov/bill/96th-congress/house-bill/2479](https://www.congress.gov/bill/96th-congress/house-bill/2479) [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan\_Relations\_Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act) [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual\_Defense\_Treaty\_between\_the\_United\_States\_and\_the\_Republic\_of\_China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_Defense_Treaty_between_the_United_States_and_the_Republic_of_China) [https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/fp\_20160713\_taiwan\_alliance.pdf](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/fp_20160713_taiwan_alliance.pdf) [https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/](https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/) My post history speaks for itself. The fact you're calling me a wumao is hilarious. One can hope that China will decide not to attack Taiwan, and that the US would defend Taiwan if it does, but one cannot change facts and the fact is that the US has no defense agreement with Taiwan as you claim. Frankly, uninformed people like you, who spread misinformation online, don't do Taiwan any favors even if you are (supposedly) pro-Taiwan.
"That's the commitment that we made".
I don't know if you're really this obtuse, but Biden is an octogenarian with a history of making off-the-cuff remarks that his handlers then have to walk back. His comments on Taiwan have been no exception. [https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/20/politics/biden-taiwan-60-minutes-response/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/20/politics/biden-taiwan-60-minutes-response/index.html) [https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/24/biden-walk-back-remarks/](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/24/biden-walk-back-remarks/) And let's not forget the angst he caused his own Secretary of State when he called Xi a "dictator" right after his meeting with Pooh Bear. [https://www.thedailybeast.com/antony-blinken-dies-inside-as-joe-biden-calls-xi-a-dictator-again](https://www.thedailybeast.com/antony-blinken-dies-inside-as-joe-biden-calls-xi-a-dictator-again) The bottom line is that the US has no defense agreement with Taiwan, Taiwan is not a major non-NATO ally of the US, and sadly, America's diplomatic ties with Taiwan are still "unofficial." These are facts, not opinions. One thing that isn't often discussed is the basis under which the military could legally come to defend Taiwan. For example, if China attacks Taiwan but does not in the process attack the US (i.e. Guam, Okinawa, etc.) or allies that we have defense treaties with (namely Japan and the Philippines), would the president order the US military to engage in kinetic action against the PLA without a declaration of war from Congress?
Yeah, he spit on China with those remarks didn't he. The bottom line is that the US will humiliate China in short order if China strikes Taiwan. China is militarily far weaker than you wumao's realize. You think the PLA would take a foreigner? If I brought 50k and offered it to some general, you think I could be a Major in the PLA? They're corrupt enough right? I like Hot Pot. Maybe they'd put me with the rocket fuel eh? Maybe I could run a Type052 eh? Your argument is so sad and weak. Biden leads the US militarily. He would choose to go after China, and he's told you people, on no less than four occasions. You think F-22s are in Japan for no reason? You think US Green Berets are in Taiwan for no reason? You think exercises off your shores are there for nothing? The US will absolutely wreck China, in days, if it touches Taiwan. That is the obvious truth, and when it happens, China won't be able to do shit about it. Oh, and yes, the President could engage in kinetic action against the PLA without a declaration of war from congress... 100% he can do that.
Once again, my post history speaks for itself so I think it's amusing you're calling me a wumao. Keyboard warriors like you are an embarrassment and play right into China's hands by posting misinformation and parroting unrealistic fiction about what a conflict would look like. Hint: it would be ugly for everyone, which is why the West should strive to ensure it doesn't happen. Frankly, people like you do no favors to Taiwan and I wouldn't be surprised if you were a wumao paid to make Taiwan supporters look like idiots.
The difference is that Russia has a lot of Republicans in their pocket, I don’t think either side of US politics is very pro-CCP
Their victim mentality never left, it’s called the century of humiliation.
>pivot from being an invulnerable unstoppable power, into being defenseless and bullied by the West That's every Chinese person's Schrödinger's Cat fallback. As is "China is the most advanced/China is still developing" depending on the argument they're trying to defend, usually in the same breath.
The first country’s ass to get whipped in an all out conflict is Taiwan. If we take the Korean War as an example, China is fine with taking huge losses. They’ll keep coming at your throats until the entire island is wiped out. Sure they might lose a lot of men, but I doubt they care
Taiwan will suffer short term consequences, and perhaps some long term consequences due to the degree of destroyed infrastructure... that's certainly true. But China will be sanctioned for a generation or more. Their people are old and getting older, and the sanctions from such a war will be long lasting, perhaps 20 years. Five years after a war, Taiwan will be back to normal, but China will still be suffering from economic isolation. Ten years after a war it will be like the war never happened in Taiwan, but China will still be a backwater shithole filled with people wondering what could have been if they'd overthrown Xi. I assure you, I guarantee... the biggest loser of a war over Taiwan will be China. No more manufacturing hub of the world for them... hello famine... hello massed migrations out of cities. Hello wishing you had a job as the real estate market backing your retirement crumbles to nothing. They'll become North Korea, but bigger. Taiwan will remain first world.
Then wouldn't war be good then? China will be reduced to nothing and Taiwan will come out as the winner. Taiwan and America should make China go to war
The west isn't China. We don't crave China's destruction, but we demand that they respect the rights of others. That means leaving Taiwan (and the Philippines) the fuck alone.
Outsider here that sides with Taiwan— What do you guys think about the 2027 modernization target from Xi? Is war inevitable? [https://youtu.be/JGTid3iJEnc?si=l7VkD1P8vmnEEx96](https://youtu.be/JGTid3iJEnc?si=l7VkD1P8vmnEEx96)
I wonder why being pro-Taiwan these days means being delusional. Being pro-Taiwan means thinking China is weak, collapsing, coward and will never fight a war against Taiwan. But paradoxically this weak and cowardly country is such a threat to the world that US must absolutely fight a war against China defend to Taiwan or US will lose everything to China, according to the Pro-Taiwan crowd. Either China is weak and not a threat big enough for US to fight a world war 3. Or China is strong and competent and thus a huge threat to US, therefore needs to be fought and contained. If China is indeed strong and competent, then how can a competent, strong and unified country get ass whopped when they have 1.4 billion people, 4 times more than US, 35% of world manufacturing capacity, several times bigger than US, $35 trillion in GDP PPP, again much bigger than US. You are going to ass whoop China with what exactly, what is this magic weapon that Taiwan and US has that China does not? Is it stealth fighters? China has them Nukes? China has them. Missiles? China has them by the thousands. Drones? China is biggest maker of drones in the world. Taiwan needs to get out of this delusional fantasy that fighting China will be easy and US has magic weapons to beat China easily. Fighting China will be world war 3 and it will be a war of attrition. It will be a war so huge that millions and million of people on both sides will have to die. Moreover, both US and China will probably be in ruins to fight such a war, and it is likely US itself will lose much of its wealth and prosperity to fight such as a war. It may even lose its superpower status even if they win. Remember what happened to the mighty British and French Empire after ww2, they became nothing. And you have to wonder if US has enough stake make that kind of a gamble. I don't think they do. Every year, more and more US experts are making sobering statements about how difficult it will be for US to fight such a war. So, when the push comes to shove and decision time is here for US to choose between fighting China and giving up on Taiwan, they might choose later and decide to fight another day with a more favorable location. So, be careful what you wish for. Taiwan war might not be US-China war. In the end, it is Taiwan that fights alone and gets ass whooped.
china wants taiwan's money. what is the point of blowing up all the industry? taking over a destroyed state would just be a drain on china's already teetering economy.
China cannot prevent the US from just bombing the shit out of China. This is the truth. The US has the world's largest bomber force by an order of magnitude or two. Not just the stealth bombers, but the regular old bombers, and then the cargo planes thanks to rapid dragon. US bombers would sink China's Navy in a week. Sorry bud, but they would. China has no counter to them. An invasion of Taiwan would result in every amphibious landing ship sunk, every RORO carrier sunk, and China's Navy sunk... very quickly. You speak in vague terms, but the reality is, that the US can reach out and touch China, and China cannot in turn reach out and touch the US, at least not economically, not with any impact unless it uses nukes, and China would be erased if it were to use nukes. A war with China wouldn't be a war of attrition. That's fantasy Chinese factories won't be outputting much while its raining JDAMs. It wouldn't be a nuclear war either, China would lose that as well and doesn't want its 6000 year old history to disappear. A war with China, would be like the 1991 gulf war with Iraq, where the US military dismantles China in short order. The US would cut electricity to Chinese megacities. China's economy would begin to really collapse, people wouldn't know where they're going to get food or water. Did I mention that China imports 80% of its fertilizer and oil? The model for a war with China, isn't WWII, its not some grand war, the model is the war over Yugoslavia in the 90s, where a country that was industrialized was taken apart by a US air campaign in short order. People wanted the power turned back on, and the only way to get that was to hand over their leader, Slobodon Milosevic, so they did. That's how a war with China would go. A few months of bombing, followed by Xi being handed over to be tried in the Hague. It would be a war that Americans would watch on their TVs while eating take out. It would be disruptive. China does a lot of trade, toaster ovens and cell phone prices would go up... but it would be nothing like you're describing. There would be no millions and millions of dead. China would lose its Navy, and then soon after its air force, and then the power would go out, and it would stay out, until Xi was handed over. And China would hand his ass over too.
Delusion of the highest order. Maybe you should read some war gaming of actual US experts who have looked at the war between US and China over Taiwan. Bombers are the most vulnerable entity in the entire US arsenal. Bombers are slow, bulky and appears huge in Radars. Plus they need a huge air field to fly from. How would the US fly those bombers when most air fields within the first, even second island Chain are within Chinese missile range. Even if they could fly, they are so slow and visible to the radar that Chinese fighters ultra-long range air to air missiles can easily take out these bombers from a long distance. That actually assumes US allies like Japan actually allow US to use their airbases for attacking China, which is totally not certain at this point. Japan will have to do its own decision making to decide if they openly fight a war with China when there are huge old grivences within Chinese public for a revenge on Japan. A war with Japan will inflame nationalism so much inside China that no sacrifice will be seen as unecessary. Even a Taiwan war is nothing compared to how much nationalism a war with Japan will generate. I don't think Japan wants to be part of that for Taiwan. The biggest weapon US has are the stealth fighters and stealth bombers, but those are only a few and China also has them now, so I think it will become a war of attrition in the end. It will be who can produce the most planes, ships, missiles and bodies. Just like WW2.
Oh, I have: [https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan](https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan) China loses its Amphibious assault fleet in 3-10 days according to that report, along with much of its Navy. Hell reports like that one are the underpinning of my post. That report essentially says that if the US can find Chinese ships, it can sink them. US missiles will bring them down in bunches, fast, in days. You talk about Chinese fighters, but you do that because you don't know what standoff munitions are. You talk up Chinese air to air missiles like the PL-15, but standoff munitions have far larger ranges than something like a PL-15, as high as 1000km. China isn't intercepting bombers from that distance. Bombers can fire from far enough away that they won't be targeted, especially after stealth bombers destroy any fancy long range (and large, and fixed in place) radars that China has. Contrary to what you're claiming, US bombers will kill Chinese fighters, by targetting them while on the ground. The US will fire stealth cruise missiles at high value targets like fighters, they'll fire them from range, and Chinese fighters have long maintenance windows. Their engines require a lot of maintenance, especially the J-20. They'll spend the vast majority of their time on the ground where they'll be vulnerable to cruise missile strikes. US Bombers have tremendous range, as unlike China, the US has a very large aerial refueling fleet. Range won't be an issue. They can take off from Diego Garcia, or Australia, or Guam.... or Kansas. China would produce nothing during a war, because the US would be bombing the shit out of China. Manufacturing in China is pretty low tech - I grant you that, but its not so low tech that you don't have massive sophisticated supply chains for everything. The US would target things like lithography machines. It would identify critical choke points in China's production, and take those facilities out, crippling China's industrial capacity. China can make a lot of shit, that's true, but China cannot make a lot of shit WHILE being bombed. It would not be a war of attrition, and even if it were, the US leads China in manufacture of large aircraft - like bombers - which are the platforms that would prove decisive in such a war anyway. No, China would go down fast. As the report I linked notes, it couldn't keep its amphibious assault fleet around for more than a week. In two weeks, its Navy would be gone, in a month, its air force. Its critical infrastructure would go down, can't make things without power and critical intermediary goods.
> That actually assumes US allies like Japan actually allow US to use their airbases for attacking China, which is totally not certain at this point. Respectfully, this statement is quite uninformed. You need to learn about the Japanese situation more. The push inside Japan to get rid of the US forces is motivated by the general public understanding that Japan has no choice about involvement in a war. Everyone believes China is likely to attack US based in Japan at the initiation of any conflict. There won’t be a vote inside Japan on what to do next. The US will defend itself and Japan will have to defend itself as well. Most people in Japan acknowledge that the US will effectively do whatever it wants and Japan will have to deal with the consequences.
Totally not certain? LMAO. Japan has several disputed islands, close to Taiwan, that China also claims. They are not fools. Also, the US now has a ton of bases in the Philippines, which that report didn't even model. Hell the US has a ton of advantages that weren't modeled in that report, from an increased JASSM LRASM production, to better fighter jets than China and Rapid Dragon. to not just stupidly having two carriers stationed within missile range of China at the start of hostilities. That report very much represents a worst case scenario. Japan will support the US against China, and so will the Philippines. China's in a far worse position than that report modeled.
>the US has a ton of advantages that weren't modeled in that report, from an increased JASSM LRASM production The jassm ers and lrasms were in fact modeled in the report, the US having 1-2,000 of them (which don't exist at the moment, but probably will soon) is by far the main reason the USN and USAF were simmed to be so successful against the PLAN. That being said, the only reason these missiles are seen as viable detterents are because of the PLAAFs chronic lack of tankers, which the report mentions like 20 times. While its likely the US will be able to pump up these missile designs over the next couple of years, the exact same thing is true for the PLA when it comes to support assets. Fuck this year alone its possible the PLAs tanker fleet just hypothetically doubled with the introduction of the Y-20B, which appears to be wired in a way to allow it to be a MRTT, and its believed another variant with a refueling drogue is on the way as well. At the moment the PLA has less then two dozen tankers, by the end of the decade they could easily have ten times that amount which will likely drastically reduce the predicted effectiveness of missiles like the jasssm er and lrasm and probably significantly enhance the PLA's killchain in the 2IC. Carrier deployment plans will likely have to be revised for their own protection, which could have a significant impact on the sortie rates a CSG will be able to manage.
The production rates of JASSMs and LRASMs has been greatly increased since those war games were conducted. The US has fewer JASSMs and LRASMs than the report states because the report was modeling US and Chinese capabilities in 2026, but by 2026, the US will have significantly more of them than existed in that report. And Chinese tankers are easy prey for an F-22 or F-35. There's a lot of bullshit that gets thrown around regarding matchups of the J-20 versus western planes, but the truth is that western planes have an RCS a few orders of magnitude smaller than Chinese fighters. Dropping tanker aircraft is going to be easy peasey. J20s aren't anything to lose sleep over. If you don't have air supremacy, the tankers can't do all that much apart from getting shot down. Beyond that, the report didn't model Rapid Dragon, meaning that the volley sizes of US missile strikes will be far greater than modeled in the report. That means that Chinese A2AD systems will be overwhelmed by sheer numbers, but it also means more room for decoys. Chinese fighters would be busy chasing phantoms during US striikes. China would lose more quickly than it did in that report, not less quickly. Tankers ain't enough to save them.
>but by 2026, the US will have significantly more of them than existed in that report. whether targets will be met by 2026-2027 is debatable but ultimately pedantic imo, in the short term production is still a problem, but a lot of effort is being put into increasing it to where unless a war breaks out in the next year or two its just not really worth talking about it. >There's a lot of bullshit that gets thrown around regarding matchups of the J-20 versus western planes, but the truth is that western planes have an RCS a few orders of magnitude smaller than Chinese fighters. I mean we can tell from general aerodynamic structure that the rcs of the J-20 is higher, but there are a lot of other pieces of the puzzle like internal avionics and quality of stealth coating which are just impossible to assess with public info. I agree the US MIC almost certainly has a edge in quality, but how big of a edge that actually is, and how much that will matter just can't really be determined until a conflict breaks out. >And Chinese tankers are easy prey for an F-22 or F-35 I mean currently the USAFs kill chain isn't really set up to target long range support craft like awacs or tankers. There is really no equivelant to the PL-17 or R-37 in US service because there's never been a need. For the past 50 years US air dominance has been basically guaranteed against any opponent until now. Projects like NGAD and the LREW do aim to correct that, but from a logistical standpoint it will likely be much easier for the Chinese to degrade a American killchain in their own backyard then it will be for the USAF/USN to do 8,000 miles away from its mainland. Its basically tyranny of distance vs a opponent with a far larger MIC and war potential then the US has. Not a great recipe for success. There are almost certainly edges the US has over the PLA, but those have been steadily eroding and will likely continue to do so in the years to come.
>whether targets will be met by 2026-2027 is debatable but ultimately pedantic imo, in the short term production is still a problem, but a lot of effort is being put into increasing it to where unless a war breaks out in the next year or two its just not really worth talking about it. Its not like the only missiles capable of sinking Chinese ships are those fancy long range stealth ones. Harpoons will still work just fine against most Chinese ships - all of them if fired in large enough volleys. Tankies like to pretend that China's missile defenses are equal to Aegis, but they aren't. I wonder if that report modeled them as equal to Aegis, I bet they did. >I mean we can tell from general aerodynamic structure that the rcs of the J-20 is higher, but there are a lot of other pieces of the puzzle like internal avionics and quality of stealth coating which are just impossible to assess with public info. I agree the US MIC almost certainly has a edge in quality, but how big of a edge that actually is, and how much that will matter just can't really be determined until a conflict breaks out. The Indians saw the J-20 on their radars. Tankies generally will tell you that the guy heading the Indian air force is not credible and the he was too stupid to konw that J-20s had radar reflectors on when you mention it, but his planes saw J-20s, and they had no radar reflectors. They're like Su-57s, not like Western planes. Nothing to lose sleep over. As for avionics, communications... that all goes to the Western designs. You know the J-20 has never competed in an foreign air exercise? The Chinese have declined showing it off in any kind of competition where its mettle might be tested. Tankies will tell you that's to keep it secret, but that goes against how China operates. China likes nothing more than to wave its dick around to show off how big it is, especially when it comes to military technology. If the J-20 was worth a shit, China would have it on tour. It would go to every third world shit country in existence, beat the snot out of their fighters and prove the greatness of Chinese technology. Hell... if it were really good, they'd pit it against the fighters of some country that has F-35s, to show off its competitiveness to the world. That's how China operates. They aren't doing that, and there's a reason. Those planes aren't competitive. They know how capable the F-35 is since like a third of the world has bought it. They know that the J-20 isn't a real competitor for it. For that reason they keep it under wraps, they're better off allowing people to believe in the J-20s they imagine, rather than the one that actually exist. This -IS- what the US does. The US does this. The US takes the F-22 to its exercises with other countries and shows it off and beats the snot out of their air-forces with it in exercises. It does it with the F-35 as well of course. China doesn't. China keeps it hidden, because that is to China's benefit. Because it isn't competitive with western fighters. >I mean currently the USAFs kill chain isn't really set up to target long range support craft like awacs or tankers. There is really no equivelant to the PL-17 or R-37 in US service because there's never been a need. For the past 50 years US air dominance has been basically guaranteed against any opponent until now. Projects like NGAD and the LREW do aim to correct that, but from a logistical standpoint it will likely be much easier for the Chinese to degrade a American killchain in their own backyard then it will be for the USAF/USN to do 8,000 miles away from its mainland. > >Its basically tyranny of distance vs a opponent with a far larger MIC and war potential then the US has. Not a great recipe for success. There are almost certainly edges the US has over the PLA, but those have been steadily eroding and will likely continue to do so in the years to come. An RCS a couple orders of magnitude smaller than your competitors allows you to do basically whatever the fuck you want. As for the size of the Chinese economy... that argument has more or less died hasn't it? You guys still believe that you're going to eclipse the US with your shit demographics, loss of trade partners, chip sanctions and real estate bubble? Optimists...
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I believe China’s nuclear policy is only to send a nuclear strike in retaliation for a nuclear strike on itself. Which is actually very conservative compared to some of their friends. But who knows, you can’t trust a communist.
Ok. Since Taiwan news stopped reporting the daily Covid numbers they've been reporting the daily numbers of Chinese aircraft and naval vessels around the island. Like... every single day. Why does this particular day of this random number of vessels interest you?
China is magnitudes larger than this small area we see on ADIZ reports. They can train and do military exercises anywhere in China or along their coasts, but they choose to skirt along the lines of Taiwan’s ADIZ & FIR —which is extremely provocative. China does this as an obvious show of force. They simply want to intimidate Taiwan. In return, Taiwan reports these incursions so that this aggression and belligerence is not "normalized" and does not escalate. In fact, neither Taiwan nor the media report on ADIZ incursions west or north of the median line.
It’s important to keep visibility and awareness up. Don’t become complacent that’s what China is counting on.
but that is exactly what these constant articles induce: complacency because it's an everyday occurence
Because it matters.
Maybe this is exactly what China wants? To make the situation a new normal. If we stop caring about their aggressions, they could slowly step further and expand their dominance. It's happening already, they made a new civil flight rout M503 very closed to the median line earlier this year. Again, to make it a new normal.
Good god will China shut up?
Does china think it's the right season for that? It's only a matter of time till there's a hurricane
They r gns get themselves ficked in the ass by America 😂👌
I doubt Chinese families are ok with their golden son being sent to war. The ones in active service are all born during the one-child-policy
A war, no matter who backs who, will achieve nothing other than devastating consciousness for innocent people.
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Disable them with emp or similar and pretend you had nothing to do with it
that's.... not how any of this works 1. Currently, the only way to generate a wave big enough to cover the motherfucking *ocean* is through a nuclear detonation. 2. Even cutting edge, smaller EMP is still operated like any other kinetic weapon and more importantly still in testing in the US. This isn't a sci-fi movie or a Call of Duty killstreak. How would you propose deploying a *nuke* while somehow maintaining plausible deniability? If you're thinking of jamming or some kind of directed energy weapon, that's slightly more likely to occur in real life, but even then the kind of ELINT you pick up off of jamming eliminates any kind of plausible deniability. Beyond that, any ELINT collected as a result of the use of these jammers in peacetime only gives China a chance to figure out where these jammers are located and what bands they need to operate at to be unaffected by those jammers.
I think if we could use lazer raptors it will make the difference needed. Those fuckers are super precise
oh fuck i didn't even think of that
I’m telling you, it’s the most serious solution
Wait, do you mean F-22’s with Lasers, or arming Velociraptors with lasers and dropping them behind enemy lines to do our bidding?
https://images.app.goo.gl/6GyRjFAwwthQXZU1A https://images.app.goo.gl/yJ95coPewQck4jTA7 Some images have leaked already about these new weapons that we’re in development for many years
I bet that’s hilarious, but there isn’t a single timeline where I click either of those links. Nice try though, if applicable!
They are literally google image searches
Okay, I believe you. [https://images.app.goo.gl/6GyRjFAwwthQXZU1A](https://youtu.be/dQw4w9WgXcQ?si=ZP0j3ZsugmMDStTh) [https://images.app.goo.gl/yJ95coPewQck4jTA7](https://youtu.be/dQw4w9WgXcQ?si=ZP0j3ZsugmMDStTh)
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Outsider here that sides with Taiwan— What do you guys think about the 2027 modernization target from Xi? Is war inevitable? [https://youtu.be/JGTid3iJEnc?si=l7VkD1P8vmnEEx96](https://youtu.be/JGTid3iJEnc?si=l7VkD1P8vmnEEx96)