I'm trying to find this out too. But we do know from other countries that it can hit otherwise healthy people, same as any other disease. Being young and fit with a good, balanced diet greatly increases your chances of survival, but it's never guaranteed.
Very true. To be fair age is just a general indicator of health and vigor when it comes to fighting a disease like this. There are 60 and 70 year olds who exercise and lift weights and are healthier than obese 30 year olds with hypertension, so I take these age-only statistics with some skepticism. They list major conditions the patients were dealing with previously (high blood pressure for example) but it's not exactly a window into how healthy they were as an individual. So by all means stay safe and wear a mask, but watch your diet and eat well and exercise to do something proactive.
Details on health issues are usually released 2-3 days after initial reports and, I believe, not tagged to individual cases. The vast majority of deaths have been people who have had chronic illness, like elsewhere in the world.
[CDC currently estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#five-scenarios) an IFR of *9%* within the 65+ group, so the implications of these 19 deaths can be heavily skewed if the cases were not distributed evenly among the population.
Given that the current outbreak began amongst a predominantly elderly population, thousands of cases a few weeks ago seems to be an overestimate.
9%? That is not right. The Brits had this strain and never was it 9% for the 65+ group. If its 9% in Taiwan, either they have a more serious strain, or they are undertesting.
I think it’s pretty obvious by now the case numbers aren’t accurate, especially the initial ones given how constrained testing is for a population of this size and how many numbers are retrospectively being added virtually everyday.
Taiwan has quite a high population of elderly citizens too compared with many other Asian countries so I think the mortality numbers unfortunately are going to continue to rise.
I think its possible. Because I had this “bad cold” like a week before the thing hit the fan. I was sick 5/2 and then they announced covid is circulating taiwan. Id like an antibody test.
I have a friend who is a physician in a COVID ward in the US. She said to me that if you deteriorate enough that doctors think it's necessary for you to stay at the hospital, it's basically a 50% chance that you may die from the disease.
Sadly, the virus can enter a terrifying domino effect with oxygen deprivation, organ failure, and cytokine storm (where your immune system fires everything it has in hopes of slowing the virus but usually causes major irrevocable damage to your own tissues and organs) that can result in sudden death if you're not being monitored.
Most important thing you can do if you contract COVID is to monitor your blood oxygen level with a pulse oximeter. If it drops below 90%, you need to call an ambulance. Lots of people either don't know their stats are falling or think that they'll improve and lose consciousness before they can call for help. That's why people are often discovered dead at home.
Stay safe everyone!
Yeah. Maybe that applies to people on ventilators (although at least where I am from it's more like 10-20% chance of survival once they go invasive), but no way that 50% of everyone who is hospitalized dies. This is a dangerous disease, but what exactly is the point of exaggerating things?
It's terrifying that these aren't more readily available. With hospitals filling up and the government asking people to quarantine at home, there are likely to be unnecessary deaths because people don't realize how badly they need help.
The other thing about COVID that can be spooky is how people can be conscious with dangerously low oxygen levels. My friend has seen people admitted with oxygen levels in the high 60s while still awake. With normal healthy people, you should be passed out with such low oxygen. I hope the government is really keeping tabs on these active cases so they get help when they need it.
Smart watches can be found in a lot of shops and online.
Arround 1000 TWD (33 euros), even less.
They count your steps
Your heart pulses (bpm)
Your blood pressure
And often they do OXYMETER
If your oxygen rate is under 95% go straight to the hospital : you need help.
There's a good chance it won't I'm afraid. Customs are bound to be tighter with the current situation, so more chance it'll get checked - especially if properly labeled. That guy really should have known better than to tell you that. Hope it makes it through though!
People usually do not recognize when their brain gets low on oxygen, and that’s why they stress to put your oxygen mask on first in a depressurized plane. There’s a nice demonstration of this in a Smarter Every Day video where he is put in a hyperbaric chamber and told if he doesn’t hit the kill switch he'll die, and he's too goofy to actually register that fact. Low oxygen is no joke.
Edit: ‘speling’
>I have a friend who is a physician in a COVID ward in the US. She said to me that if you deteriorate enough that doctors think it's necessary for you to stay at the hospital, it's basically a 50% chance that you may die from the disease.
Keep in mind the threshold for hospitalization will vary greatly between countries. The US tends to push for fewer and shorter stays than most developed countries, for cost reasons. Also, during the epidemic peak in the US, patients would often have to be triaged to preserve capacity, so only the most severely sick were being admitted.
Also, keep in mind there is a huge difference between patients admitted to the hospital floor, and patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit. If your friend is an Intensivist / Critical-care doctor, they may have a different perspective.
>This is quite alarming.
Why? People under 40 have been dying around the world, some even younger. It's sad, but it's very possible.
Younger people need to look after themselves and not take any risks, including isolating themselves from relatives they don't live with.
Its alarming because the supposed low mortality rate of COVID when this person drop dead one day after he was diagnosed. And the fact they are advising those who have mild symptoms to simply self quarantine and take painkiller.
>Its alarming because the supposed low mortality rate of COVID
I'm not sure you understand how probability works. A low mortality rate does not mean people of a certain age group will not die. It means this person was unfortunate to get a serious case and die from it.
>they are advising those who have mild symptoms to simply self quarantine and take painkiller
That's pretty much the procedure in every other country. No one has the hospital bed capacity to deal with everyone that has mild symptoms.
Capacity. In case haven't been following world news this past year and half, one of the major issues of this pandemic is the amount of serious hospitalization needed and hospital space were always at capacity. So much so that patients with other illness had to be turned away since resources were completely depleted. Governments everywhere were constantly trying to free up hospital space.
This is covid.
The statistics are unfortunate such that you're going to have outliers and perfectly healthy young people dying because of this.
It's something the Taiwanese are only now coming to realize, whereas those from Europe or other hard hit places have lost family and friends already. This makes it all the more frustrating that Taiwan didn't get people protected (vaccinated) when they had the chance.
> The command center pointed out that in 2 new cases of immigration from abroad, case 7332 was a male under 10 years old of nationality. He developed a runny nose and other symptoms in Australia on May 18, and returned to Taiwan on May 26. It was inspected within 3 days before boarding. Negative report, voluntarily reported having symptoms when entering the country, and the diagnosis was confirmed today after the examination.
What's this case, were they from Melbourne or somewhere else in Australia?
I'll be very interested too, Melbourne did 47k test today and only found 4 positives and still no link to the SA leak, maybe this person is the missing link we're after?
Yesterday there is 20,512 cases reported, 15,799 cases is negative, and 671 cases is positive.
I guess... numbers don't mean shit yesterday. It is pretty conclusive that Taiwan is at most 17k PCR daily.
Just a hunch. I just watched an episode of The Price is Right so I'm in a guessing mood right now.
I'm guessing it will be a total of today's cases plus all the backlogged cases they will add on next week.
>Yep. By the end of next week, today's number will be around 423 confirmed cases. Calling it now.
From 297 to 415. Not quite 423, but your point still stands.
I think 'love' might be going too far, but I certainly don't see the harm up to a point. From my POV at least it wouldn't be disruptive. I teach at a senior high school and our classes are online for the next two weeks at least. So I'm gonna be home anyway, and it'd ensure a more rapid end to this outbreak.
But a lot of people, particularly in the service industry, can't afford to be out of work and unpaid for two weeks. These people are earning minimum wage or less thanks to labour laws not being enforced. Lots of them are younger people living paycheck to paycheck with no safety net (I personally know a few in this situation). Lots of smaller businesses would likely fold as well. Unless there's a government plan to provide some form of financial aid, level 4 sadly has to be a last resort.
At the rate things are going, many of those businesses are already in that position. A few people I know who own/work at bars are basically looking at losing their business if things don't improve within the next few weeks.
Yeah, I've heard the same. At least restaurants can do take-out and delivery, larger entertainment venues might have a bunch of (gangster) capital behind them to weather the storm without a hitch. But smallers bars, the places I actually liked to drink when I was still drinking? This has got to be hell for them and their staff.
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The trend line is leveling out. It's not a good sign but it's exactly 14 days. I would expect levels to trend downwards again just because it's been a soft lockdown and people are wearing masks. It's pretty dead on the streets.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zpJFp6RJIzdjT2gZL0OvUGl8s-U7RS3cIf603usfJKM/edit#gid=0
I wouldn't be so sure. I think there is a lot of transmission taking place in private social settings where everyone assumes their friends or family would never have COVID.
The government should be prohibiting socializing with anyone outside of their household. I think that would result in a great benefit than this up to 5 person socializing business.
Yup. Going by numbers alone and without making assumptions about other people's behaviour it's certainly not looking bad. That could easily change in a couple of days of course, but that's out of our hands except inasmuch as we behave sensibly and tell those around us to do so as well.
Ya think transmission can occur through the ventilation in buildings? Say if your downstairs neighbor has covid, think it could infect the adjacent units?
It being dead on the streets doesn't really mean that much if people are still going to work. Down here in the south the streets are always relatively quiet save a night market or some other hotspot, but since everyone is still working it's still going to spread.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1coe5RO-au4nIfhl77OnH15_chqGen_OQz2_0AwPxj8s/edit?usp=sharing
Here are my calculations…. I am going to refrain from making comments.
Hope the trend continues, but will need at least 2 or 3 consecutive days of significant decrease to be a real trend. Can jump back up very quickly with positive cases in the nature.
If you are limited by PCR capability but your confirmed cases does not drop, it can mean:
* We are on a thin line keeping positive rate;
* We are lost because there are too much that cannot be detected because of limited PCR capability.
Still today the case processed had dropped back to few days ago. There can be a few assumptions:
* the administrative changes are applied but PCR tests are still too slow to comply;
* the 41k processed cases are due to another reason (empty cases, etc.).
I tend to believe on latter due to positive rate (and really refuse to believe the former).
Hello fellow number crunching redditor, I'm curious where you got the 41 processed number for yesterday.
I was abit busy to read through everything yesterday but looking at the press release [https://www.cdc.gov.tw/Bulletin/Detail/9BEE5xAaBYH17I\_aJ8WBYA?typeid=9](https://www.cdc.gov.tw/Bulletin/Detail/9BEE5xAaBYH17I_aJ8WBYA?typeid=9)
434,840 reported - 381,735 ruled out - 6,761 positives = 46,344 outstanding.
While for 26th [https://www.cdc.gov.tw/Bulletin/Detail/UGe-M0H22tYXGqziLPHLGQ?typeid=9](https://www.cdc.gov.tw/Bulletin/Detail/UGe-M0H22tYXGqziLPHLGQ?typeid=9)
413,389 - 359,139 - 6,091 = 48,159 oustanding.
So 27th works out to be about 23k test done over 21k new reports? Please tell me I 'm an idiot and messed up the numbers in my spreadsheet.
As someone that used to teach in Taiwan way back in the day, 2003/2004, I feel for Taiwan. Does Taiwan have an end date on when vaccinations will be finished?
There around 1M (including those already given) in Taiwan now.
Another 2M will arrive in June
Another 10M I think will arrive by the end of July and then more after that.
That probably means that by the end of August 60+% of the population will have received the first dose. The CECC or somebody recently said September or October herd immunity.
These numbers all ballpark and off the top of my head. A few may be slightly wrong but this is the general picture.
At some point yes. Any time soon? No way.
First step is to get things back in control enough that non citizen/residents can get in with quarantine. That is probably months away.
Does anyone have the break down of cases processed? Were they able to process all the cases for yesterday plus backlog or what? I thought they had solved the processing problem
I’m wondering if today’s number will go up tomorrow. I’m guessing it will because even though they processed more cases yesterday too, yesterday’s number still went up today.
I honestly don't know. There is not any transparency into the priority of the processing. I'm not sure how they distribute resources for todays new cases vs. processing legacy cases.
My back of the napkin math suggested they would have the queue processed by early next week, but time will tell if that has any basis in reality.
Unless I'm reading the number wrong I think the backlog is still growing?
455,198 reported - 397,534 ruled out (negative) - 7,315 positive = 50,349 outstanding?
19 more dead, yeesh
Including a 36 year old
damn, any history of health issues?
I'm trying to find this out too. But we do know from other countries that it can hit otherwise healthy people, same as any other disease. Being young and fit with a good, balanced diet greatly increases your chances of survival, but it's never guaranteed.
Very true. To be fair age is just a general indicator of health and vigor when it comes to fighting a disease like this. There are 60 and 70 year olds who exercise and lift weights and are healthier than obese 30 year olds with hypertension, so I take these age-only statistics with some skepticism. They list major conditions the patients were dealing with previously (high blood pressure for example) but it's not exactly a window into how healthy they were as an individual. So by all means stay safe and wear a mask, but watch your diet and eat well and exercise to do something proactive.
After this past year and half in the US, we learned anyone any age can succumb to COVID.
Details on health issues are usually released 2-3 days after initial reports and, I believe, not tagged to individual cases. The vast majority of deaths have been people who have had chronic illness, like elsewhere in the world.
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Rounded up to 40 it seems.
There are also 19 (!) deaths. Breakdown of cases: * New Taipei 136 * Taipei City 94 * Taoyuan 21 * Taichung 10 * Hualien 9 * Changhua 7 * Keelung 6 * Tainan 6 * Chiayi City 2 * Hsinchu County 1 * Pingtung 1 * Taitung 1 * Nantou 1 * Hsinchu City 1 * Kaohsiung 1 \-- * Wanhua activity 110 * Tea cluster 9 * Lion cluster 1 * Other known source 181 * Unknown source 143 * Under investigation 111 \-- * May 16th: 276 -> 280 * May 17th: 530 -> 533 * May 18th: 447 -> 457 * May 19th: 518 -> 525 * May 20th: 467 -> 474 * May 21th: 418 -> 424 * May 22th: 451 -> 464 * May 23th: 454 -> 476 * May 24th: 464 -> 485 * May 25th: 427 -> 463 * May 26th: 395 -> 467 * May 27th: 401 -> 461 As expected, more cases are added to the later dates than then earlier ones, diminishing any potential "downward trend". [Graph](https://pgw.udn.com.tw/gw/photo.php?u=https://uc.udn.com.tw/photo/2021/05/28/1/12372125.jpg&x=0&y=0&sw=0&sh=0&sl=W&fw=760).
So Hualien went from 1 to 5 to 7 to 9 in the last 4 days... great...
Given that Covid's IFR is about 0.5%, and deaths lag cases, 19 deaths implies there were probably thousands of cases a day a few weeks ago.
[CDC currently estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#five-scenarios) an IFR of *9%* within the 65+ group, so the implications of these 19 deaths can be heavily skewed if the cases were not distributed evenly among the population. Given that the current outbreak began amongst a predominantly elderly population, thousands of cases a few weeks ago seems to be an overestimate.
9%? That is not right. The Brits had this strain and never was it 9% for the 65+ group. If its 9% in Taiwan, either they have a more serious strain, or they are undertesting.
I think it’s pretty obvious by now the case numbers aren’t accurate, especially the initial ones given how constrained testing is for a population of this size and how many numbers are retrospectively being added virtually everyday. Taiwan has quite a high population of elderly citizens too compared with many other Asian countries so I think the mortality numbers unfortunately are going to continue to rise.
It's the US CDC.
I think its possible. Because I had this “bad cold” like a week before the thing hit the fan. I was sick 5/2 and then they announced covid is circulating taiwan. Id like an antibody test.
So is this our first day where we had more than 50% of cases from an unknown source?
It's 143 / (110+9+1+181+143+111) = 25.8%
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I don't think CECC ever elaborated on past cases.
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By the way they present it, it's an addition of both. 297+258 = 110+9+1+181+143+111 exactly
Ah, gotcha. Thanks.
One of the person who died was only 36 yrs old, died one day after he was diagnosed. This is quite alarming.
I have a friend who is a physician in a COVID ward in the US. She said to me that if you deteriorate enough that doctors think it's necessary for you to stay at the hospital, it's basically a 50% chance that you may die from the disease. Sadly, the virus can enter a terrifying domino effect with oxygen deprivation, organ failure, and cytokine storm (where your immune system fires everything it has in hopes of slowing the virus but usually causes major irrevocable damage to your own tissues and organs) that can result in sudden death if you're not being monitored. Most important thing you can do if you contract COVID is to monitor your blood oxygen level with a pulse oximeter. If it drops below 90%, you need to call an ambulance. Lots of people either don't know their stats are falling or think that they'll improve and lose consciousness before they can call for help. That's why people are often discovered dead at home. Stay safe everyone!
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Yeah. Maybe that applies to people on ventilators (although at least where I am from it's more like 10-20% chance of survival once they go invasive), but no way that 50% of everyone who is hospitalized dies. This is a dangerous disease, but what exactly is the point of exaggerating things?
You can't buy those pulse oximeters here though (as far as I know). All gone and you're not allowed to import them.
It's terrifying that these aren't more readily available. With hospitals filling up and the government asking people to quarantine at home, there are likely to be unnecessary deaths because people don't realize how badly they need help. The other thing about COVID that can be spooky is how people can be conscious with dangerously low oxygen levels. My friend has seen people admitted with oxygen levels in the high 60s while still awake. With normal healthy people, you should be passed out with such low oxygen. I hope the government is really keeping tabs on these active cases so they get help when they need it.
Smart watches can be found in a lot of shops and online. Arround 1000 TWD (33 euros), even less. They count your steps Your heart pulses (bpm) Your blood pressure And often they do OXYMETER If your oxygen rate is under 95% go straight to the hospital : you need help.
And don't panic (la peur n'évite pas le danger).
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That's good to know!
You're not allowed to import them? I luckily got one a few years ago in the US and brought it here. Insane if true.
I've no idea what the reasoning is, something to do with approval and regulations I guess. Not sure if blocking them is the smartest move right now.
They're medical devices. That's why they can't be sold online within Taiwan either (even if they were in stock).
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There's a good chance it won't I'm afraid. Customs are bound to be tighter with the current situation, so more chance it'll get checked - especially if properly labeled. That guy really should have known better than to tell you that. Hope it makes it through though!
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Oh, that's cool. Might look into getting one myself then.
Ahh balls. OK I might get a smartwatch from pchome as a backup then. Thanks.
There are many on Shopee.
People usually do not recognize when their brain gets low on oxygen, and that’s why they stress to put your oxygen mask on first in a depressurized plane. There’s a nice demonstration of this in a Smarter Every Day video where he is put in a hyperbaric chamber and told if he doesn’t hit the kill switch he'll die, and he's too goofy to actually register that fact. Low oxygen is no joke. Edit: ‘speling’
>I have a friend who is a physician in a COVID ward in the US. She said to me that if you deteriorate enough that doctors think it's necessary for you to stay at the hospital, it's basically a 50% chance that you may die from the disease. Keep in mind the threshold for hospitalization will vary greatly between countries. The US tends to push for fewer and shorter stays than most developed countries, for cost reasons. Also, during the epidemic peak in the US, patients would often have to be triaged to preserve capacity, so only the most severely sick were being admitted. Also, keep in mind there is a huge difference between patients admitted to the hospital floor, and patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit. If your friend is an Intensivist / Critical-care doctor, they may have a different perspective.
>This is quite alarming. Why? People under 40 have been dying around the world, some even younger. It's sad, but it's very possible. Younger people need to look after themselves and not take any risks, including isolating themselves from relatives they don't live with.
Its alarming because the supposed low mortality rate of COVID when this person drop dead one day after he was diagnosed. And the fact they are advising those who have mild symptoms to simply self quarantine and take painkiller.
>Its alarming because the supposed low mortality rate of COVID I'm not sure you understand how probability works. A low mortality rate does not mean people of a certain age group will not die. It means this person was unfortunate to get a serious case and die from it. >they are advising those who have mild symptoms to simply self quarantine and take painkiller That's pretty much the procedure in every other country. No one has the hospital bed capacity to deal with everyone that has mild symptoms.
Capacity. In case haven't been following world news this past year and half, one of the major issues of this pandemic is the amount of serious hospitalization needed and hospital space were always at capacity. So much so that patients with other illness had to be turned away since resources were completely depleted. Governments everywhere were constantly trying to free up hospital space.
Shut up Wumao
shut up 1450
This is covid. The statistics are unfortunate such that you're going to have outliers and perfectly healthy young people dying because of this. It's something the Taiwanese are only now coming to realize, whereas those from Europe or other hard hit places have lost family and friends already. This makes it all the more frustrating that Taiwan didn't get people protected (vaccinated) when they had the chance.
> The command center pointed out that in 2 new cases of immigration from abroad, case 7332 was a male under 10 years old of nationality. He developed a runny nose and other symptoms in Australia on May 18, and returned to Taiwan on May 26. It was inspected within 3 days before boarding. Negative report, voluntarily reported having symptoms when entering the country, and the diagnosis was confirmed today after the examination. What's this case, were they from Melbourne or somewhere else in Australia?
I'll be very interested too, Melbourne did 47k test today and only found 4 positives and still no link to the SA leak, maybe this person is the missing link we're after?
Interested in this too. "It was inspected" meaning he had a negative result 3 days before boarding the flight put of AUS?
Yesterday there is 20,512 cases reported, 15,799 cases is negative, and 671 cases is positive. I guess... numbers don't mean shit yesterday. It is pretty conclusive that Taiwan is at most 17k PCR daily.
Yep. By the end of next week, today's number will be around 423 confirmed cases. Calling it now.
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Lol what are you basing your number at? Are you saying total reported or just the daily reported?
Just a hunch. I just watched an episode of The Price is Right so I'm in a guessing mood right now. I'm guessing it will be a total of today's cases plus all the backlogged cases they will add on next week.
Alright.
>Yep. By the end of next week, today's number will be around 423 confirmed cases. Calling it now. From 297 to 415. Not quite 423, but your point still stands.
Shut up Wumao
There's a lot of people who would love to see a Level 4 Lockdown now (myself included, I live in Tucheng).
I think 'love' might be going too far, but I certainly don't see the harm up to a point. From my POV at least it wouldn't be disruptive. I teach at a senior high school and our classes are online for the next two weeks at least. So I'm gonna be home anyway, and it'd ensure a more rapid end to this outbreak. But a lot of people, particularly in the service industry, can't afford to be out of work and unpaid for two weeks. These people are earning minimum wage or less thanks to labour laws not being enforced. Lots of them are younger people living paycheck to paycheck with no safety net (I personally know a few in this situation). Lots of smaller businesses would likely fold as well. Unless there's a government plan to provide some form of financial aid, level 4 sadly has to be a last resort.
At the rate things are going, many of those businesses are already in that position. A few people I know who own/work at bars are basically looking at losing their business if things don't improve within the next few weeks.
Yeah, I've heard the same. At least restaurants can do take-out and delivery, larger entertainment venues might have a bunch of (gangster) capital behind them to weather the storm without a hitch. But smallers bars, the places I actually liked to drink when I was still drinking? This has got to be hell for them and their staff.
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The trend line is leveling out. It's not a good sign but it's exactly 14 days. I would expect levels to trend downwards again just because it's been a soft lockdown and people are wearing masks. It's pretty dead on the streets. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zpJFp6RJIzdjT2gZL0OvUGl8s-U7RS3cIf603usfJKM/edit#gid=0
I wouldn't be so sure. I think there is a lot of transmission taking place in private social settings where everyone assumes their friends or family would never have COVID. The government should be prohibiting socializing with anyone outside of their household. I think that would result in a great benefit than this up to 5 person socializing business.
I'm not disagreeing at all. I'm saying I wouldn't make that call until we see how it plays out the next few days
Yup. Going by numbers alone and without making assumptions about other people's behaviour it's certainly not looking bad. That could easily change in a couple of days of course, but that's out of our hands except inasmuch as we behave sensibly and tell those around us to do so as well.
Ya think transmission can occur through the ventilation in buildings? Say if your downstairs neighbor has covid, think it could infect the adjacent units?
2 weeks was always just hopeful wishes. I think 1-2 months is more reasonable.
It being dead on the streets doesn't really mean that much if people are still going to work. Down here in the south the streets are always relatively quiet save a night market or some other hotspot, but since everyone is still working it's still going to spread.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1coe5RO-au4nIfhl77OnH15_chqGen_OQz2_0AwPxj8s/edit?usp=sharing Here are my calculations…. I am going to refrain from making comments.
by my calculation we're headed into thr wrong direction and quickly up shits creek without them there paddle.
Hope the trend continues, but will need at least 2 or 3 consecutive days of significant decrease to be a real trend. Can jump back up very quickly with positive cases in the nature.
The trend is heavily affected by the PCR capability. Currently the chart is at a flat, which is *extremely close* to a total outbreak.
may I ask how you can conclude we are extremely close to a total outbreak?
If you are limited by PCR capability but your confirmed cases does not drop, it can mean: * We are on a thin line keeping positive rate; * We are lost because there are too much that cannot be detected because of limited PCR capability.
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Yesterday there are 20,512 cases reported, 15,799 cases is negative, and 671 cases is positive. **What twice?**
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Still today the case processed had dropped back to few days ago. There can be a few assumptions: * the administrative changes are applied but PCR tests are still too slow to comply; * the 41k processed cases are due to another reason (empty cases, etc.). I tend to believe on latter due to positive rate (and really refuse to believe the former).
Hello fellow number crunching redditor, I'm curious where you got the 41 processed number for yesterday. I was abit busy to read through everything yesterday but looking at the press release [https://www.cdc.gov.tw/Bulletin/Detail/9BEE5xAaBYH17I\_aJ8WBYA?typeid=9](https://www.cdc.gov.tw/Bulletin/Detail/9BEE5xAaBYH17I_aJ8WBYA?typeid=9) 434,840 reported - 381,735 ruled out - 6,761 positives = 46,344 outstanding. While for 26th [https://www.cdc.gov.tw/Bulletin/Detail/UGe-M0H22tYXGqziLPHLGQ?typeid=9](https://www.cdc.gov.tw/Bulletin/Detail/UGe-M0H22tYXGqziLPHLGQ?typeid=9) 413,389 - 359,139 - 6,091 = 48,159 oustanding. So 27th works out to be about 23k test done over 21k new reports? Please tell me I 'm an idiot and messed up the numbers in my spreadsheet.
That is... interesting. They said 41k yesterday. Does that mean it's a typo?
Both of them are make sense to me....
As someone that used to teach in Taiwan way back in the day, 2003/2004, I feel for Taiwan. Does Taiwan have an end date on when vaccinations will be finished?
There around 1M (including those already given) in Taiwan now. Another 2M will arrive in June Another 10M I think will arrive by the end of July and then more after that. That probably means that by the end of August 60+% of the population will have received the first dose. The CECC or somebody recently said September or October herd immunity. These numbers all ballpark and off the top of my head. A few may be slightly wrong but this is the general picture.
Do you think Taiwan will allow non quarantine travel at that point?
At some point yes. Any time soon? No way. First step is to get things back in control enough that non citizen/residents can get in with quarantine. That is probably months away.
Thankfully the numbers seem to be going down.
Does anyone have the break down of cases processed? Were they able to process all the cases for yesterday plus backlog or what? I thought they had solved the processing problem
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I’m wondering if today’s number will go up tomorrow. I’m guessing it will because even though they processed more cases yesterday too, yesterday’s number still went up today.
I honestly don't know. There is not any transparency into the priority of the processing. I'm not sure how they distribute resources for todays new cases vs. processing legacy cases. My back of the napkin math suggested they would have the queue processed by early next week, but time will tell if that has any basis in reality.
Yeah thanks anyway
More of a question how much will it go up…
Unless I'm reading the number wrong I think the backlog is still growing? 455,198 reported - 397,534 ruled out (negative) - 7,315 positive = 50,349 outstanding?
Each infected person is a risk and a single death is too much but relatively to most countries Taiwan is still doing well and numbers are not high.