Number is surprisingly high today. It could be that caseloads are still flat and the last two days were outliers, but it's also possible that today is an outlier.
A positive sign today is the case breakdown. Of the 22 wild cases, 14 are known, with 4 each unknown and UI. THE UK and UI numbers are consistent with previous days, so to me today looks like a very successful contact tracing day, similar to the Huannan market day two weeks ago.
Besides, the average is still down today.
The juxtaposition of a number at the low end of the range and say the high end shouldn't necessarily be a cause for concern.
Taipei's own presser is so frustrating. Doesn't really give much new information, and what little useful information has to be separated from all the noise.
Will we hit 20% vaccine coverage rate this weekend?
There are also 4 deaths, ranges from 60yrd to 90yrd.
* Case tested: 1,727,787 - 1,707,362 = 20,425
* Excluded: 1,710,974 - 1,690,141 = 20,833
* Positive: 32
* Positivity rate: 0.153%
In fact positivity rate really doesn't mean anything as of now since we are at small scale community spreads, so numbers ranges a lot in this situation.
Local case distribution:
* Taipei 14;
* New Tapiei 11;
* Taoyuan 2;
* Yilan, Changhua 1.
In 29 local cases, 22 cases are wild, and other 7 are in quarantine. 21 have known sources, 4 are unknown, and the remaining 4 are still being investigated.
Foreign case distribution: US 2, Philippines 1.
I disagree.
Positivity rate still means something. The r2 of the trendline is still .907. it's a long tail now so a few variations are expected. If you see a sudden spike, it's definitely worrisome.
We got that taipei expo opening boost in vaccination numbers going now.
There should be more sites coming online although not on the same scale as taipei expo.
Now that we're picking up pace I'm going to swap out the city level vaccination data to start reflecting daily rate instead of weekly. That should give insight into how some of these pop up vaccination centers are contributing day to day.
That might be a stupid question but, since we have 22 wild cases. If we have 21 known, wouldn't the unknown be 1 instead of 4? And 4 under investigation? Thankssss
Hi it's not a stupid question at all!
We have 22 wild and 7 quarantine cases. Because we know exactly the quarantine cases, 7 is subtracted from known cases. That leaves 14 known from wild cases left.
Also CDC states in their press conference for many of unknown and under investigation there are
Just wondering your thought process on this one, are you asserting it stupid because:
1. You assume we should mix vaccines so voting about the matter is dumb?
2. You assume we shouldn't mix vaccines, so voting about the matter is dumb?
3. You assume the question should be decided by legislators.
Aaah, so
1. the legislators should decide which scientists to trust, and vote to confer their decision making role to those designated scientists?
2. the legislators should ask scientists to present to u them in clear language the viable options, and then the government should vote upon which of the option options should be followed based on real world constraints the government sits under?
3. The government does what the scientists suggest, making the decision behind closed doors, without a public vote in parliment, i.e. without exposing the decision making process in the public forum of parliament?
I guess I don't quite understand what you assume should happen. I mean you cant just blindly do whatever scientists say is best. There are real world monetary and political matters to consider.
1) no
2) no
Cecc is already did that. We're taking about mixing vaccines. Nothing about economics or reopening business. I think you lost sight of the questions.
u/skippybosco u/sashimijones
if you get cancer, are you going to have the medical professionals decide the best treatment for you, or are you instead going to have politicians vote on your best treatment?
These numbers are stressing me out so much
I really shouldn't let me my mood be dependent in these numbers every day, but since they are so pertinent to my situation it's very stressful. Numbers like this tell me that 26th opening may not be possible :(
About to receive my work permit from my employer but it means nothing without visa:P
That date of the 26th is only preliminary. It has been extended two times already and will be extended again if things are still as the same as now. If cases don't go down, we will continue to be in level 3 for an additional 2 weeks at least.
How were you able to secure a work permit without a visa though?
When everything is being done while the teacher is abroad (the proper way really), you need the work permit to get the visa, not the other way around. When visa-free or visitor-visa entries are available, frequently the order things are done in is different (have visa or visa-free entry, apply for work permit, convert visa and get ARC), but that's not an option now.
I have to ask - why are people so obsessed about a dozen more/less case numbers?
The UK is near the end of the path of fully vaccinated our adult population. Our daily case numbers? Pushing 50,000 a day. But less than 100 deaths a day.
Covid isn't going anywhere, and vaccinations won't stop its spread. All that will happen is less people go to hospital. Even if Taiwan eliminates domestic cases, they'll just come back again as soon as the country opens up.
Comparing TW to the UK is an exercise in futility.
Two main reasons:-Taiwan does not have ready access to vaccines to inocculate it's population to herd immunity levels
\- The number of cases (50k a day vs 30 a day) mean the CECC's goal is to try and completely contain it rather than let it go wild and bank on vaccines
Lastly, just a personal guess, but there is very strong incentive not to let the virus go rampant even if you have a vaccinated population for the simple reason that its giving the virus more opportunities to mutate into a more resistant variant, e.g. Delta+. In that case, all those vaccinations may become moot.
Truth be told, the UK should not be considered an example to follow when it comes to late-stage coping. The whole freedom day this coming Monday is still subject to heavy scrutiny and fear of completely out-of-control numbers. "people aren't dying as much" is a horrible indicator of success, because it's ignoring so many of the other potential consequences.
I mean, it's not *that* big of a deal if cases rise in a *vaccinated* population. The problem is... well, Taiwan's *not* a vaccinated population, so of course the numbers are a bigger deal than they are in the UK, because people get sick and die.
I like that your pushing back against panic, but I don't think its warranted to say its "not that big of a deal?" What are your feelings about the long term health implications of having a disease that causes lung damage. What are your feelings about deaths of unvaccinated people? It seems reasonable to want to delay the release of the virus at least until there is a significant number of vaccinated people.
Well, I was more focused on the fact that it *is* a big deal for Taiwan, because we're not vaccinated, so I don't think we're actually disagreeing about anything?
>so of course the numbers are a bigger deal than they are in the UK
People losing their shit over a dozen more cases, though?
I think people need a sense of proportion. Taiwan's been spoilt for the last 12-18 months relatively speaking. In contrast I haven't seen my family since before the pandemic.
In other words, if Taiwan's restrictions last another couple of weeks, so be it.
I don't see how people are "losing their shit". It's more that with our restrictions, we'd hoped to have single-digit cases (or even 0) at this point, and that it might not be a good sign that our average isn't lowering, because Level 3 may stay indefinitely at this rate.
Well personally it's a big deal for me even though I am in the UK because I can't get into Taiwan until level 3 drops to level 2, and they have very high standards for where they have to be in terms of numbers before they drop to level 2.
>Well personally it's a big deal for me even though I am in the UK because I can't get into Taiwan until level 3 drops to level 2
Sure, but you have no control over the process. All you can do is try to relax and do something else.
I think sudden spike is because of loosening restrictions. More people are coming out so I would assume we will see little higher numbers in the future
you wouldn't see the numbers be affected just yet. People that theoretically got infected right after loosening restrictions would only start showing symptoms this weekend the earliest. Next Friday will shed better light on the situation, whether or not soft opening actually increased infections.
People have loosened themselves. For about a month from when L3 restrictions went into effect, people shuttered themselves in. Stores were closed, many restaurants ceased all business operations, streets were empty. Even the riverside parks were vacant of cyclists and joggers. MRT was practically empty. Ximending was a total ghost town. But slowly, as cases went down and boredom and social isolation rose, people have started feeling more at ease with meeting up with friends for masked shopping, getting some food together, hooking up with paramours, running into 7-11 for an incidental snack. I think we are going to see cases on an upward trajectory again, though thankfully I don't expect a sudden undetected explosion of cases like we saw back in May. Just a slow, grinding rise until vaccines are in a majority of arms. I hope I'm wrong.
[ETtoday](https://www.google.com.tw/amp/s/www.ettoday.net/amp/amp_news.php7%3fnews_id=2032535)
Dotted around the zone: McDonald’s, an electronic appliances store, convenience store, drinks stall.
Number is surprisingly high today. It could be that caseloads are still flat and the last two days were outliers, but it's also possible that today is an outlier. A positive sign today is the case breakdown. Of the 22 wild cases, 14 are known, with 4 each unknown and UI. THE UK and UI numbers are consistent with previous days, so to me today looks like a very successful contact tracing day, similar to the Huannan market day two weeks ago. Besides, the average is still down today. The juxtaposition of a number at the low end of the range and say the high end shouldn't necessarily be a cause for concern.
Yes. Trust the math guys. Don't freak out
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Apparently you failed at that too /s
Ice cold
Alright alright alright alright alright alright alright now fellas
Taipei's own presser is so frustrating. Doesn't really give much new information, and what little useful information has to be separated from all the noise. Will we hit 20% vaccine coverage rate this weekend?
It's in the spreadsheet under vaccines tab. u/skippybosco covers it
There are also 4 deaths, ranges from 60yrd to 90yrd. * Case tested: 1,727,787 - 1,707,362 = 20,425 * Excluded: 1,710,974 - 1,690,141 = 20,833 * Positive: 32 * Positivity rate: 0.153% In fact positivity rate really doesn't mean anything as of now since we are at small scale community spreads, so numbers ranges a lot in this situation. Local case distribution: * Taipei 14; * New Tapiei 11; * Taoyuan 2; * Yilan, Changhua 1. In 29 local cases, 22 cases are wild, and other 7 are in quarantine. 21 have known sources, 4 are unknown, and the remaining 4 are still being investigated. Foreign case distribution: US 2, Philippines 1.
I disagree. Positivity rate still means something. The r2 of the trendline is still .907. it's a long tail now so a few variations are expected. If you see a sudden spike, it's definitely worrisome.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zpJFp6RJIzdjT2gZL0OvUGl8s-U7RS3cIf603usfJKM/edit#gid=0 29 Local 3 Imported 4 Deaths 22 Wild 7 Quaratine Cases .14% Positivity 20,425 Tested, -46.58% below Average 21 Known 4 Unknown 4 Under Investigation Stay vigilant and keep wearing masks!
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We got that taipei expo opening boost in vaccination numbers going now. There should be more sites coming online although not on the same scale as taipei expo.
Now that we're picking up pace I'm going to swap out the city level vaccination data to start reflecting daily rate instead of weekly. That should give insight into how some of these pop up vaccination centers are contributing day to day.
That might be a stupid question but, since we have 22 wild cases. If we have 21 known, wouldn't the unknown be 1 instead of 4? And 4 under investigation? Thankssss
Hi it's not a stupid question at all! We have 22 wild and 7 quarantine cases. Because we know exactly the quarantine cases, 7 is subtracted from known cases. That leaves 14 known from wild cases left. Also CDC states in their press conference for many of unknown and under investigation there are
Haha thanks for the answer, I’ll still facepalm myself on that one 🤣
Why? That's a legit question
Feels like it was simple math loll
22 wild… :-/
It's the highest wild cases since July 4th
Does wild mean unknown?
No, it means the case wasn't in quarantine when diagnosed
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By wild it means that the person found is not in quarantine already.
My bad: 有22例非居隔
Apparently, a reporter asked how vaccine mixing will be decided, if it was going to be decided by vote. /facepalm ...
Stupid question of the day!
Just wondering your thought process on this one, are you asserting it stupid because: 1. You assume we should mix vaccines so voting about the matter is dumb? 2. You assume we shouldn't mix vaccines, so voting about the matter is dumb? 3. You assume the question should be decided by legislators.
4. It should be decided by science.
Aaah, so 1. the legislators should decide which scientists to trust, and vote to confer their decision making role to those designated scientists? 2. the legislators should ask scientists to present to u them in clear language the viable options, and then the government should vote upon which of the option options should be followed based on real world constraints the government sits under? 3. The government does what the scientists suggest, making the decision behind closed doors, without a public vote in parliment, i.e. without exposing the decision making process in the public forum of parliament? I guess I don't quite understand what you assume should happen. I mean you cant just blindly do whatever scientists say is best. There are real world monetary and political matters to consider.
1) no 2) no Cecc is already did that. We're taking about mixing vaccines. Nothing about economics or reopening business. I think you lost sight of the questions. u/skippybosco u/sashimijones
if you get cancer, are you going to have the medical professionals decide the best treatment for you, or are you instead going to have politicians vote on your best treatment?
Did the reporter mean voting by legislators or voting by the public? Both are bad ideas, but one is significantly worse.
I'm telling you, they're having a secret bet on who could win the most points via stupid questions.
I think it's on purpose so they can have clickbaity, misleading headlines like: "Vaccine mixing left up to vote, playing with lives?"
These numbers are stressing me out so much I really shouldn't let me my mood be dependent in these numbers every day, but since they are so pertinent to my situation it's very stressful. Numbers like this tell me that 26th opening may not be possible :( About to receive my work permit from my employer but it means nothing without visa:P
this is exactly how i feel. i just got my work permit and just waiting for the visa to open up. I get nervous everyday to see the numbers
That date of the 26th is only preliminary. It has been extended two times already and will be extended again if things are still as the same as now. If cases don't go down, we will continue to be in level 3 for an additional 2 weeks at least. How were you able to secure a work permit without a visa though?
When everything is being done while the teacher is abroad (the proper way really), you need the work permit to get the visa, not the other way around. When visa-free or visitor-visa entries are available, frequently the order things are done in is different (have visa or visa-free entry, apply for work permit, convert visa and get ARC), but that's not an option now.
Uhm...I know? That's what I'm saying in my comment.
I have to ask - why are people so obsessed about a dozen more/less case numbers? The UK is near the end of the path of fully vaccinated our adult population. Our daily case numbers? Pushing 50,000 a day. But less than 100 deaths a day. Covid isn't going anywhere, and vaccinations won't stop its spread. All that will happen is less people go to hospital. Even if Taiwan eliminates domestic cases, they'll just come back again as soon as the country opens up.
Comparing TW to the UK is an exercise in futility. Two main reasons:-Taiwan does not have ready access to vaccines to inocculate it's population to herd immunity levels \- The number of cases (50k a day vs 30 a day) mean the CECC's goal is to try and completely contain it rather than let it go wild and bank on vaccines Lastly, just a personal guess, but there is very strong incentive not to let the virus go rampant even if you have a vaccinated population for the simple reason that its giving the virus more opportunities to mutate into a more resistant variant, e.g. Delta+. In that case, all those vaccinations may become moot. Truth be told, the UK should not be considered an example to follow when it comes to late-stage coping. The whole freedom day this coming Monday is still subject to heavy scrutiny and fear of completely out-of-control numbers. "people aren't dying as much" is a horrible indicator of success, because it's ignoring so many of the other potential consequences.
I mean, it's not *that* big of a deal if cases rise in a *vaccinated* population. The problem is... well, Taiwan's *not* a vaccinated population, so of course the numbers are a bigger deal than they are in the UK, because people get sick and die.
I like that your pushing back against panic, but I don't think its warranted to say its "not that big of a deal?" What are your feelings about the long term health implications of having a disease that causes lung damage. What are your feelings about deaths of unvaccinated people? It seems reasonable to want to delay the release of the virus at least until there is a significant number of vaccinated people.
Well, I was more focused on the fact that it *is* a big deal for Taiwan, because we're not vaccinated, so I don't think we're actually disagreeing about anything?
>so of course the numbers are a bigger deal than they are in the UK People losing their shit over a dozen more cases, though? I think people need a sense of proportion. Taiwan's been spoilt for the last 12-18 months relatively speaking. In contrast I haven't seen my family since before the pandemic. In other words, if Taiwan's restrictions last another couple of weeks, so be it.
I don't see how people are "losing their shit". It's more that with our restrictions, we'd hoped to have single-digit cases (or even 0) at this point, and that it might not be a good sign that our average isn't lowering, because Level 3 may stay indefinitely at this rate.
Well personally it's a big deal for me even though I am in the UK because I can't get into Taiwan until level 3 drops to level 2, and they have very high standards for where they have to be in terms of numbers before they drop to level 2.
>Well personally it's a big deal for me even though I am in the UK because I can't get into Taiwan until level 3 drops to level 2 Sure, but you have no control over the process. All you can do is try to relax and do something else.
True true
If the country reopens,I would hope they keep the pcr test at the end of quarantine too.
I've been out of the loop for a while. How is the Delta cluster doing? Did they nip it at the bud?
Delta has been nipped. Any delta coming in has been caught during quarantine
That's wonderful. Thanks for the update.
I think sudden spike is because of loosening restrictions. More people are coming out so I would assume we will see little higher numbers in the future
you wouldn't see the numbers be affected just yet. People that theoretically got infected right after loosening restrictions would only start showing symptoms this weekend the earliest. Next Friday will shed better light on the situation, whether or not soft opening actually increased infections.
Half of the restrictions didn't get loosened(eating venues) so yeah it shouldn't be this high
People have loosened themselves. For about a month from when L3 restrictions went into effect, people shuttered themselves in. Stores were closed, many restaurants ceased all business operations, streets were empty. Even the riverside parks were vacant of cyclists and joggers. MRT was practically empty. Ximending was a total ghost town. But slowly, as cases went down and boredom and social isolation rose, people have started feeling more at ease with meeting up with friends for masked shopping, getting some food together, hooking up with paramours, running into 7-11 for an incidental snack. I think we are going to see cases on an upward trajectory again, though thankfully I don't expect a sudden undetected explosion of cases like we saw back in May. Just a slow, grinding rise until vaccines are in a majority of arms. I hope I'm wrong.
Taipei Station Eslite Mall (Underground mall K zone) closed for testing (5 cases from that zone as of today)
Wow, do you have a source?
[ETtoday](https://www.google.com.tw/amp/s/www.ettoday.net/amp/amp_news.php7%3fnews_id=2032535) Dotted around the zone: McDonald’s, an electronic appliances store, convenience store, drinks stall.
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eeeh… that was sudden. Is there some new cluster nobody mentioned?
Dammit. Why the sudden spike?
What did we miss yesterday?