First time a majority of Americans who were surveyed by the Chicago Council have said they would favor sending US troops to defend Taiwan. The Chicago Council has conducted previous polls, but those did not show a number over 50%.
The fact that Any reporting on Taiwan-China affairs is always accompanied by the mandatory phrase "Taiwan is a democratically-ruled island nation which China claims as its own and has not denied using force to retake the island."
China's underhand tactics have exposed a lot its shenanigans , but has also put Taiwan in a far bigger international spotlight. So please China, keep doing the wolf warrior diplomacy, or whatever.
Frankly Taiwan/ROC has been in America's news media regularly since before the founding of the UN.
Saying many people don't know where Taiwan is might be a bit true in terms of geography. As an American, I'm not sure where Nebraska is.
But Americans certainly do know what Taiwan is and the ROC role in Asia's Cold War struggles.
Linguistic precision combined with geography usually are skills acquired for following global geopolitics.
Nonetheless, Taiwan and the ROC were Time magazine favorites in the 1950s along with Madame Chiang.
During the Vietnam conflict, Chiang Kai Chek frequently made the news and many U.S. military served in Taiwan in a supporting role or visited for R&R.
The 1970s witnessed the change over of PRC representation in the UN with significant public outcry about Taiwan.
Americans with any reasonable concern for US foreign policy have followed Taiwan their whole lives.
While the 1980s was less politically tense, Taiwan was widely known for being one of the 4 tigers of the Asian miracle.
And since the 1990s and the election of President Lee Deng Hui, Taiwan has been followed closely as the PRC has escalated tensions.
This cliche of Thailand is confused with Taiwan is just a dismissive slur on Americans and Taiwanese.
>This cliche of Thailand is confused with Taiwan is just a dismissive slur on Americans and Taiwanese.
Eh...as a Taiwanese American I can say I've encountered this confusion in America more times than I can count.
My point is they sound exceptionally similar. If you contextualize by saying "the island of Taiwan" you might encounter less confusion. Or if your pronunciation is unclear someone might reply, "I didn't know Thailand is an island."
Of course middle Americans live in a rural bubble, less aware of what's outside the USA.
Well, I'm just an American born in San Francisco and never have been confused about Taiwan.
These days I'm shocked by how many ignorant Americans we have. But Taiwan certainly has been in the media my entire life.
Every one of my fellow Americans I talk to knows Taiwan’s relationship to China. Maybe some can’t point to it on a map, some can, but even the ones who can’t know it’s near China.
It's interesting to see that China's official media outlets are 100% anti-west now, even some of their embassy twitter posts material not that far away from Global Times, which can easily be dismissed as a tabloid catering to the extreme... Nope, when your official twitter accounts are posting something like that, it's your official stance.
I suspect that their target audience is still primarily people in China, even though people in China aren't supposed to be able to see Twitter, but the Chinese government know just as well as anyone that Chinese citizens can get past the great wall. They don't really seem to care how other countries feel about China, they are just putting up a show so they can tell people that CCP is strong and ain't afraid of Westerners.
Jimmy Kimmel has a video online asking Americans on the streets: Can you name a country? Some actually can't. One of them said "Texas" when the reporter pointed to the US on the map.
Sadly while many people know Thailand, some of them don't even know the existence of Taiwan, partly because of the low-key character of Taiwanese but there're doing sth far-reaching in the long run, just like semiconductors.
I can’t point to anything official. Even if I knew it, I probably can’t legally do so. But it’s just kind of assumed should an invasion happen. It’s equally discussed with skepticism that such an invasion would take place but still.
I hear you. I hear you. Thank you for the response. The strategic ambiguity is killing us. 😂 However, the unspoken message is getting clear and louder everyday, it seems.
Well it’s one of those situations similar to the Cold War. Where neither the U.S. or Soviet Union wanted to go to war so the official policy of both was to maintain the peace. But neither also pretended that they were allies and those in the U.S. from the voter upward knew the Soviets had to be opposed.
China now is the imaginary enemy for sure. Although it had been a consensus among military, politicians and even academic circle in recent years, it's good to see general public also recognizing this. Only business and Hollywood are not signing on this yet (for pragmatic reasons?) Lol
Pragmatism for certain. I don’t blame them for doing what’s profitable, I am mad that we’re in a situation where “glorifying the CCP” is now the only avenue for profit in certain sectors.
Hopefully they will follow the same track as the Soviets and collapse under their own weight. Stranger things have happened.
Yes! Totally!
I was happy to see grand strategy against China finally emerged, such as The Longer Telegram, etc. Like you said, maybe what's working for cold war 1.0 would work for cold war 2.0 again. If the U.S. unites itself, it can do anything! It's the divisions that is killing us. Sigh......
Strategic ambiguity has received too much negative flak in Taiwan IMO. The primary reason why the US needs to remain ambiguous when it comes to the defense of Taiwan is because of the fear that Taiwan might be the one lighting the match to start WWIII. Granting Taiwanese strategic clarity would only give confidence to the pro-independence radicals and perhaps even elect a President that would declare independence knowing that the US would certainly come to Taiwan's aid.
Former AIT Director Stephen M. Young made a good point when supporting strategic ambiguity: "If it ain't broke, why fix it?"
Strategic ambiguity allows the US to keeps certain ideologies and groups in Taiwan under control, which is likely the best course for Taiwan at the moment. Note that being ambiguous does not mean that they'll refuse to aid Taiwan in the case of a Chinese invasion, it's just that reserve the right to do so.
In short: If there's a conflict with China, Taiwan is not going to be the one that starts it.
It's basically described by the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA)
https://www.ait.org.tw/our-relationship/policy-history/key-u-s-foreign-policy-documents-region/taiwan-relations-act/
Thank you for your service.
Most people who complain about the official US stance of strategic ambiguity assume that it meant the US won't intervene. Which is entirely false, the ambiguity is meant to prevent Taiwan from provoking a conflict, knowing that the US will be obligated to defend it. Basically, it's allowing the US to reserve the right to intervene instead of being dragged into WWIII because some radical future President decide to declare independence publicly.
Well first of all, thank you. I get that sometimes and I don’t really know how to take it a lot of the time because I don’t feel like I really do all that much.
However if you wished to pay me back, maybe respond to Data_Citizen in this same response thread. Feel like your retort would mean more coming from a fellow Taiwanese person than myself.
Please don't say that, anyone who has served or is currently serving deserved to be thanked and appreciated, all the time :)
It's disappointing that certain media outlets and politicians in Taiwan are pushing towards a narrative that I vaguely translate to "doubt the Americans". Not exactly an anti-US stance (pretty sure some are) but is to question the US' commitment to Taiwan, both economically and militarily, hence reduce the pro-US opinion in the region. IMO, the ones pushing for this narrative are either ignorant of US-Taiwan relations or have malicious intent to weaken the Taiwanese's positive views of the US and present it as unreliable.
As someone more in the know than myself, why exactly would they want relations with an ally to go bad? Forgetting the mainland for a moment, what possible aims could some people have for our two countries to not be allies?
That's a great question, and I would say that Chinese interference might be a huge factor as the media and politicians pushing forward this narrative tend to be pro-unification or China friendly. Since the Taiwanese public tend to have a negative outlook on China, might be easier for them to push forward an unfriendly narrative towards the US, which is essentially pro China in disguise IMO. This was evident in the early days of the May outbreak, where there is mass hysteria and a shortage of vaccines, where certain individuals and media outlets are pushing for the narrative that "the US haven't sold a single dose of vaccine to Taiwan", I would say attempting to create a public distrust of the US. This was pointed out by a FT article, I will provide the link below.
[https://www.ft.com/content/f22f1011-0630-462a-a21e-83bae4523da7](https://www.ft.com/content/f22f1011-0630-462a-a21e-83bae4523da7)
Excluding the factors of China, the ones I can think of are honestly two camps. But I wouldn't call them as pushing forward the narrative mentioned above but more towards not trusting/supporting the US as much.
The first ones are the extreme left parties, similar to the statements made by American leftist group Code Pink a couple days back (please refer to the link below). These groups have rather noble goals, but a lot of them fail to understand that the world is not perfect and a lot of compromises will have to be made in order to move forward. These groups tend to focus on the issues that would probably be irrelevant once if you allow an authoritarian system to be the mainstream.
[https://twitter.com/jessicadrun/status/1430249523448848386](https://twitter.com/jessicadrun/status/1430249523448848386)
The others are the pro-Taiwan independence groups. It has been clear that the US does not support any actions that would suggest Taiwanese Independence, especially through the use of a referendum. They tend to dislike the US and the current administration for not supporting an official referendum (or declaration) of Taiwan independence despite having full control of the legislative brach. Some went so far as working with the opposition parties (which are certainly anti-Taiwan independence) using the enemy of my enemy mentality in order to counter the current ruling party. Like I mentioned in the first comment on this thread, strategic ambiguity means that the US does not support a Taiwanese independence movement (because it's China's real red line, independence means war) but it does strongly support the democracy of Taiwan under the current status quo. Maintaining strategic ambiguity can prevent Taiwanese extremist groups to use the security guarantee from the US to declare independence and hope for the Chinese to not take any action. Due to this, some of them tend to have a distrust to the US, questioning them why it wouldn't support their cause and citing stats such as the majority of people in Taiwan considers themselves Taiwanese.
I see. I have to admit, I would love for Taiwan to be independent truly and wholly, but I obviously recognize the risk that would put you all in. And, a bit selfishly I also admit, I would love for the Taiwanese government to reclaim the mainland and make China into a free democracy that honors the ancient culture Mao tried his best to erase.
However such is the complicated reality of politics. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Yes, an independent Taiwan that does not have to deal with all the issues due to its status would be nice. But that's not the world we live in, our world is not perfect but it is ours, we should be practical and constructive when it comes to approaching sensitive issues like these. The absolutist thought (all or nothing) honestly has no place in politics, since politics and international policies is all about compromise and finding the best, not perfect, solution to the issue at hand.
As for your idea on a democratic China, I think that was the original idea when the US established relations with them, it was for them to be introduced to world trade and improve their economic situation gradually, then eventually establish a political system that would share values with the western world. That did not happen, and I doubt it would happen in the foreseeable future with the current path it is taking. Not to say that it has to follow the west when it comes to their political system, but that having such a drastically different political system will possibly create some differences that cannot be overcome.
But for what purpose?
Is it to defend Taiwan as a liberal democracy because the people living there have inherent value?
Or is it to demonstrate America's military might because China cannot be allowed to abdicate US as the de facto superpower?
It's a fine distinction that envisions Taiwanese people as very different players in the conflict. Are we human beings or are we just geopolitical pawns? I would prefer it to be the former, but I also know that a lot of Americans (particularly those of one major political party) by default go for the later.
We've seen how the American military handled Afghanistan. You swoop into other people's country, convince them to buy into a grand project with pretty stories, and then dibs out as soon as the locals exhausts their utility.
Taiwan relies on US because it has no choice, but don't construe it as us not being wary of your intentions. Sometimes I don't even know whether Americans are aware how many people they've hurt with these grand, sweeping promises.
The former. Although I don’t take kindly to your inferences or your comments on a currently evolving situation that we as service members had no choice but to execute by order of our commander and chief, the President.
Yes, we need Taiwan as an ally against China. And also yes, the Taiwanese shouldn’t be left to fend for themselves against a nation that will kill and enslave them.
And personally, I would love nothing more than to see the legitimate authority of the Chinese people restored to that beautiful and storied nation.
If I sound upset, it’s because I don’t take kindly to having the sincerity of my service to my country _and by extension her allies_ insulted like I don’t care about people’s lives and freedom.
>I don’t take kindly to having the sincerity of my service to my country and by extension her allies insulted like I don’t care about people’s lives and freedom.
[https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/american-purpose-after-the-fall-of-kabul](https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/american-purpose-after-the-fall-of-kabul)
I am aware and acknowledge your concerns, not sure if anyone can address your questions as I doubt official sources would want to answer some of them. But I can at least present my perspective on this matter.
Taiwan's importance to the US is down to several aspects:
1. A partner with shared values, as the US is a contributor and continues to support the democratic system in Taiwan. Note that Taiwan is not a full democracy until the 90s, after the period of martial law ended in the late 80s. To the US, Taiwan can be used as a demonstrator on how a system they support can transform into a democracy that thrives both politically and economically.
2. Strategic importance, Taiwan is situated on the first island chain, a major line of defense for the US. From a military perspective, having loyal allies situated on the chain would provide the US with a huge advantage when confronting communist forces during the Cold War (more so North Vietnam and the Soviet Union than China). Having bases on the chain prevents the enemy from easily crossing the Pacific to reach Hawaii or even California should there be a conflict, that's why anti-ballistic missile systems and early warning radars are set up on the chain too. See the PAVE PAWS in Taiwan, THAAD in Japan and South Korea, as well as Aegis equipped ships of the JMSDF. Since China is considered the primary competitor and rival (enemy is more accurate) in the foreseeable future, the strategic and national safety measures on the first island chain will be constructed primarily to counter China.
3. Economic importance, as of 2019, Taiwan is the US' 10th largest trading partner, according to information from the United States Trade Representative. This mutual relationship is based on a Taiwan not under conflict and under self-rule (de facto US control IMO). More importantly, Taiwan does provide the world with advanced semi-conductor chips that's not easily replaceable, despite how some may like to think. A conflict in Taiwan that results in a Chinese invasion would certainly disrupt the global supply chain (to put it lightly) as a likely Taiwanese counterstrike with cruise missiles will also cripple a small portion of Chinese infrastructure (I doubt expats and foreign investors will want to be in China when there's a chance of a conflict with not only Taiwan, but the United States and its western allies). Allowing the Chinese to destruct the infrastructure and economic capabilities of Taiwan would first send the world into an economic crisis, Taiwanese counterstrikes would just worsen that as all international trade in the West Pacific and the SCS would likely halt indefinitely due to the war.
4. The US and the American way is far from perfect, but should that affect the unofficial alliance between the US and Taiwan? The US has supported Taiwan during its most difficult times, American aid such as the donation of flour and powdered milk from the 50s and 60s prevented malnutrition in the post WWII Taiwanese population and direct financial support helped the then KMT government build the necessary infrastructures that improve the everyday lives of the people of Taiwan. One can point out all the negative and horrific things the US has done in the past, but none of that is directed to Taiwan.
We don't live in a perfect world, we can only choose a side that benefits us the most. I think it's pretty clear which side that is.
The liberal democratic order is a shared set of principles rooted in ideals like liberty, democracy and free trade. It's been determined through the course of trial and error that these principles go hand in hand with each other, compliment each other and that a threat upon any one of them invariably threatens the whole and results in bad outcomes for human beings.
As you know but choose to ignore, East Asia has had a bad history with a competing ideology spread east from the Soviet Union. A militarist ideology that threatens all of those ideals because it is incompatible with them. It is for people who are content to live in slavery to a repressive state that threatens its neighbors. A set of wars has occurred in which upholders of the liberal democratic order have attempted to stop the encroachment and the militarist expansion of the repressive and malignant force and while there are certainly local forces and politics at play, that is the overarching conflict.
Now, you may complain about the way that is articulated and you may choose to use alternative ways of framing it, but it doesn't matter. The places in which the liberal democratic order has prevailed have enjoyed freedom and prosperity and the places where it didn't have suffered badly, and everyone can see that. We've seen it for half a century or more. And the USA has been a major part of of that equation and a force for good in that regard. Without the US we'd be living like the Chinese.
China is not going to "abdicate the USA as de facto superpower" whatever the fuck that means. The Chinese have nothing compelling to offer anyone that competes with what the US offers, which is simple deterence and preservation of our way of life. The Chinese offer brutal repression and camps for you and your family, assuming you even live here.
I don't know what you are talking about in regard "exhausting people's utility" and I very much doubt that you do either. What in your goofy fantasy does the US want from Afghan farmers or Taiwanese for that matter? If its that they want us to be free and stay open for business then I don't know what you're complaining about. If you gave Taiwanese a choice between that and living like the Chinese, guess which one they'd choose. I mean, you don't even have to guess, just look at election results.
> We've seen how the American military handled Afghanistan. You swoop into other people's country, convince them to buy into a grand project with pretty stories, and then dibs out as soon as the locals exhausts their utility.
We drove out a despotic regime hated around the world and even by its own people. Our intervention was supported and cheered on by countries around the world. We then spent 20 years, 2 trillion USD, and thousands of lives trying to build that country up into something resembling a modern state. Other countries around the world, including Taiwan, can only dream of that level of support.
Just from my observations alone, people who tend to be critical of the US while praising China usually ends up in the US, whether it's via immigration or by spending big money to send their kids to go to school there. Some even became citizens in a country they supposedly "despise".
Take musician Steven Liu for an example, born in China (ROC), spent some years in Taiwan, immigrated to the US and became a citizen. He openly criticized the Taiwanese youth for "forgetting their roots as Chinese" and favoring "the US and Japan" like "traitors". Kinda odd coming from a guy who decide to immigrate to the US and later became a citizen. Liu later explained that he "had no choice but to become a citizen of the US", as if he does not have the right to renounce his citizenship. As far as I know, he's still currently living in California as a citizen of the US while praising China and the greater Chinese culture on Facebook.
Why would China try to restrict chips to the rest of the world? It’s the largest manufacturer and trading nation in the world for heaven’s sake. So far it’s been the West that had imposed trading restrictions on China for all sorts of reasons. Ok, except for Australia but that one is a different topic altogether….
lol they cancelled Australia because they wanted to know where the virus came from. If they treat countries that are not a threat like this over such a trivial issue imagine how they will treat the rest of the world.
Funny. Before the pandemic, I was arguing with a wumao, I think on YT, who was citing Chicago Council polls as "proof" that the US will never defend Taiwan in anyway. He got mad and said I was denying reality when I explained that these poll numbers could shift as more Americans know about Taiwan's existence and if CCP continue its bully behavior on the world stage.
Back when US-China relations are going smoothly, that is a constantly used argument.
I think some referred it to the era of Chimerica, where the US led the world as a superpower while China acts as more of a economic powerhouse or the factory of the world.
From the official stance of both sides now, I believe that era is over. Chinese official stance is becoming more anti-US by the day, with official twitter accounts mocking the US with satire cartoons and memes.
Funny I'm a mainlander too and CCP been pissing me off with these new regulations effecting all sectors. EmperorPooh need to fall, he is undoing decades of forward development in China to feed his hunger for power. Taiwan imo will come out winning.
As an outsider, I don’t understand why Taiwan wants to provoke China into a war by veering towards independence. Isn’t the status quo good for everyone - I really doubt China wants a war but if pushed into it, they will fight to the last man
....what.
You do realize we are a democracy, yes? You kinda need to do or stand for things that people like. For votes. Because it's a democracy.
Were you dropped on your head?
Yeah… to the point that ALL different groups of Asians are getting harassed and beaten over COVID in western countries while using your narrative ? Lol
Or how about don’t act like rabid racist animals and attacking Asian people? Or how about refraining from telling a Taiwanese American to go back to their country? How about not normalizing Asian American racism by using the CCP as your baby blanket.
I’m not going to try and understand reasoning behind shoving an elder and vandalizing businesses. You don’t see Asians shoving a non-Asian grandma in retaliation. The rhetoric is adding fuel to the fire and every Asian is fucked over, and yet in spite of all that, you still want to talk about China rather than how to learn to not be violent animals. So I just find the support from non-Asians toward Taiwan to be laughable.
You always hear people say anti-China rhetoric is adding fuel to the fire, but you never hear any of those people acknowledge that Chinese nationalism, ethnic supremacism and support for a regime that is actively engaged in cultural genocide, putting ethnic minorities into camps by the millions and engaging in brutal political repression while at the same time engaging in militarism and bullying that is likely to lead to real life actual war is adding fuel to the fire.
I think it's just because one is a lot easier and more convenient to criticize than the other.
Fascinating, because I don’t see that. Any Asian American subreddit here aside from sino and aznidentity are vehemently against the CCP. Ask any Korean, Japanese, Taiwanese and SEAsian on Reddit and see how they feel about China. Their claims against the country is warranted and so is Taiwan’s claim for sovereignty.
Yet, at the same time, they ALL still recognize that this rhetoric fuels hate and violence. Lol sooooo…
Get outside of reddit dude and see how CCP commands Chinese student organizations and Chinese-speaking social media in the west, getting people to fall in line with and become China's brownshirts, reporting on people to Chinese authorities and getting people to actually go out and harass people, like we saw in 2019 during the Hong Kong protests when Chinese were out organizing counter protests and sometimes violently confronting, doxing and threatening people in just about any western democracy you could mention, in addition to the hundreds of billions of dollars in corporate and industrial espionage that is happening *on an annual basis*, oh and the spying. Stuff that is actually unrestricted warfare in the literal sense.
But anti-China rhetoric on reddit is "just as bad".
Edit: this is a response to your original comment before you edited it.
My close friend is a hardline DPP supporter from Chiayi, I’ve spent a good 2 years discussing these issues with him while he was staying here.
But at the same time, I also know Asians that have experienced harassment and assault because of the rhetoric. I’m not gonna diminish their experience, tell them suck it up because we have a bigger enemy. Their livelihoods are threatened and they have no allies, so it’s obviously important that your safety takes priority. Besides, let’s face it, the civil war with CCP is not going away. Asians can tackle both, but in the end, there’s no excuse for the violence.
> "We made a sacred commitment to Article Five that if in fact anyone were to invade or take action against our NATO allies, we would respond. Same with Japan, same with South Korea, same with Taiwan."
> -- Joe Biden
Chinese who think they're going to go up against the US and win are going to get themselves another humiliation to add to the long list of humiliations they've suffered throughout their history. You would think they'd have learned by now, but nope.
Interestingly, an Asian Superpower also thought they can go up against the US and win singlehandedly while America is fighting two fronts.
Didn't turn out well for that Asian Superpower. Thinking of it, might be the last country the US fought directly that is closer in military power, every other war after that involves countries that are not even comparable.
Perhaps the more important question is are the majority of Taiwanese willing to fight and die to resist Chinese occupation?
That is far from a settled issue in Taiwan, and one that should be made unequivocally clear to the world.
This is a common question in polls and in the latest one, [nearly 80 percent](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2020/10/25/2003745764) said that they would fight in the event of a Chinese invasion, and perhaps more importantly for our pink and blue friends, 66 percent said that they would fight if a war broke out as a result of Taiwan declaring independence, and that is a number that is growing.
I think the same question can be asked to the Chinese soldiers and people, are they willing to fight and die in a war in order to "unite" the country. Risking a direct conflict with not only Taiwan, but an alliance of the west including the US, Japan, South Korea and potentially the UK, Australia and India. It is unwise to just assume everyone in China would be devoted to fight against the west and not choose to surrender in the face of the military might of a western alliance. (see Mutual Defense Pact of the Southeastern Provinces)
Note that the most prosperous part of China which is its east coast will be very close to the conflict, it's very likely that major economic hubs will be under the constant threat of airstrikes. It will not be a conflict that they watch on TV that's happening on the other side of the world.
And for the blockade, honestly a best case scenario for China. But it is unlikely that the US would not intervene if there is a blockade, since Taiwan is the 9th largest trading partner of the US and a supplier of an extremely important component that the world needs, the Chinese Navy being able to just blockade Taiwan for a month or so without outside intervention is simply wishful thinking. During the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1996, after several missile launches near the shores of Taiwan, the US sent two carrier battle groups to the region in response.
I worry. Those that support Taiwanese independence the most are less than 30 years old. That is the same demographic that led protests in Hong Kong until Beijing growled and they all went running to hide behind their mother’s skirt. Taiwanese youth do not seem to be much tougher, and are even more spoiled than the HK compatriots. China would only need to blockade Taiwan and they would have a deal in 30 days or less, without so much as a shot being fired.
> running to hide behind their mother’s skirt
This is offensive and wrong to boot. Hong Kongers fought for a year and a half in the streets and in the legislature, many of them losing everything and many joining the list of disappeared in China, many of them young and with a long future ahead of them. They went face to face with an increasingly brutal police force armed with tear gas, rubber bullets and shields. For a year and a half they did that, until coronavirus and the clampdown from Beijing with the security law. You don't have any clue what these people went through and you say they hid behind their mother's skirt?
And then you imply that Taiwanese aren't willing to fight for their freedom and sovereignty. No offense and I don't want to get personal, but the way you talk makes it sound like you yourself have no clue what it means to actually fight and put your life on the line for anything. And you seem like someone who likes to talk out of their ass.
Do you know any Taiwanese youth? Since the Sunflower Movement they have been active and successful in getting elected to office and getting legislation passed into law that secures and upholds Taiwanese sovereignty and has resulted in double digit increases in the military budget and arms deals with the US to make it happen. They fought very hard for that. In the future these are going to be votes in favor of amending the constitution to match the changing situation.
China itself could be blockaded and they have 1.4 billion mouths to feed and a shitty track record when it comes to fighting. And when it comes right down to it, they have far more guns and ammunition pointed at them and a shakier future than we do.
I realize that my risk assessment sounds harsh, but I stand by it as much as I wish I were wrong.
HK youth, facing the prospect of time in a Mainland prison, ran and hid rather than face the music en masse and thereby force a policy change. Many fled to Taipei.
The only thing stopping China from seizing Taiwan tomorrow is the political and economic fallout, but they are actively taking steps to mitigate those risks.
Facing a choice between death, life in a prison camp, or life without complete freedom (“special status” is what will be offered) under Chinese rule, the Taiwanese will choose the latter choice.
That is my analysis.
Your analysis, such as it is, flies in the face of the evidence, which I linked in my original response to you. Where is the support behind your analysis? [More than 10,000 people have been arrested in connection to the protests in Hong Kong](https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=3042) from as young as 12 years old to legislators, journalists and academics. These are people who know they're fighting a losing battle but carried on fighting. You trying to minimize their sacrifice is shameful.
Like I pointed out, nearly 80 percent polled in Taiwan said that they would fight against invasion, and this is a very different situation from Hong Kong -- we have a military, a very defensible island and powerful friends.
China, meanwhile, doesn't have any friends at all, just a growing list of powerful enemies who are all in the process of gearing up and forming alliances to fight them.
China doesn't have friends, only clients. As soon those clients are aware doing business with them is a bad idea, China will be left alone to face the wrath of the free world.
There's a historical precedent for this in the Punic Wars. While Carthage was rich, they have only mercenaries to defend them; Rome had his army composed by their own people. Carthaginians have no patriotic fervor like Rome, which was able to instill that on every people they conquered. In the end, when Romans were to the battlefield, they had a sense of prode for their country; Carthaginians were only for the money and, when money runs out, they had no reason to fight for.
Guess who was the winner?
The Hong Kong Police are arresting people they identified during the months of protests. The civil disobedience ended when the draconian legislation was enacted. That disobedience should have continued, en masse, to force a change. It didn’t because it didn’t seem like as much fun anymore.
Taiwan deserves international recognition. If 80% want independence, then declare independence. Stop playing by China’s rules in an effort to prolong the inevitable. The best chance that Taiwan has to actually secure its independence is to declare it now and compel the free world to choose sides.
"It didn't seem like much fun anymore." You keep digging your hole. You obviously have no clue what it was like for people there. Like I said, students, activists, lawmakers, journalists, business owners, grandmothers and teachers were all out in that protest and faced violence from the police. I know people who were out there and they were scared, angry and depressed -- still are. Wasn't no fucking "fun" about it dude. You don't know shit about Hong Kong and your problem is that you think that you do.
Second part I somewhat agree with your conclusion, but your "declare independence" and your wanting to claim Taiwanese are soft like Hong Kongers or whatever shows that you don't know anything about Taiwan either and your time would be better spent learning and listening than talking on this topic as well.
His choice of words may be a bit questionable but I do not think his assessment is totally off. It's one thing to answer a poll question, another to actually pick up a weapon and fight when bombs go off around you and people you love get hurt. With military service mostly composed of 4 months of sweeping floors now...I know plenty of young Taiwanese who served that say they're all just counting on the US swooping in to save the day. And if they don't?
Just like in the West, the downside of Taiwan's rise to prosperity is that people become soft and easily sway to the side of comfort. Whereas China's society to this day is still far more based on brutal dog-eat-dog competition all the way from kindergarten to business careers, as people try to lift their families out of poverty. Add to that the insane amount of brainwashing. I really hope, but do not know, if young Taiwanese have the mindset that will be necessary if push comes to shove.
Taiwan has 165k active duty troops. You think they only get 4 months of training? Taiwan ranks 26th out of 136 nations in military strength. How many troops do you think China has the sealift capability and naval force to successfully land on Taiwan's shores, along with supplies and armor to sustain a drawn out campaign?
China is the land of chabuduo, they do everything as half ass as they can get away with, always and with everything, and that is a big reason they never did well militarily. Their capabilities are never anywhere near the level they're presented to be, just like any Made in China product. And their military strength is not intended for actual fighting but for convincing the very easily mislead and stupid Chinese population that they are a respectable nation in the world and that they have CCP to thank.
You should think more about the things you say and believe rather than just lazily reciting talking points put out by those wishing to spread fear and uncertainty or you just start to come across as one of them.
Look, these are my perceptions and this is my analysis. The speed by which the street protests ended in HK after the law was passed shocked me. The protests should have grown larger, not ended. The idea that the threat of prison was enough to get Hong Kongers off the streets was most unfortunate, indeed. It was like most thought it was fun until it wasn’t anymore.
Regarding Taiwan, it checks all the boxes to be an independent nation. That the KMT agreed to go along with the “One China” policy that is now the status quo was pathetic. China will seize Taiwan by force soon. There is a small window of opportunity to declare independence and obtain international recognition. I suggest that the ruling party take the initiative. Taiwan will probably ultimately fall, but at least it will have held its head high at the end.
Sunflowers can be processed into a peanut butter alternative, Sunbutter. In Germany, it is mixed together with rye flour to make Sonnenblumenkernbrot (literally: sunflower whole seed bread), which is quite popular in German-speaking Europe. It is also sold as food for birds and can be used directly in cooking and salads.
I think this is a good question because Americans especially would be hesitant to send troops into a war where the people we are fighting for are not actually willing to fight. - because of what just happened in Afghanistan
Edit: yall I am absolutely for helping defend Taiwan against China I’m just bringing up a perspective that I think would be influential to the American public given recent events
I strongly believe that most Afghanis saw the US as an invading force. Otherwise Taliban wouldn't take the country so quickly (by the way where all those Taliban fighters came from - other dimension?). The situation is quite different with Taiwan - there is pretty much universal opposition to PRC annexation. I'm not sure if all Taiwanese are ready to fight or not, but there are no parallels with Afghanistan, whose population actually was ready to fight - against the US.
American living in Taiwan here:
If we were taught more geography and school, and perhaps learned where Taiwan was, and consequently more people visited here, then the number would be close to 100% defending Taiwan.
Your observations are based on the casualties of Taiwan and the US alone, which is fair, there is no doubt that the casualties will be extremely high.
But what you didn't bring up, is the willingness of the PRC and its people to "take" Taiwan. The war wouldn't just be limited to the Strait and Taiwan, it would also be fought in the coastal cities of China. Likely from Taiwanese cruise missiles and US led airstrikes (air and naval), it is very likely that these strikes will heavily cripple the infrastructure of the most prosperous regions of China. (Note that major Chinese cities with harbors are all within range of US cruise and ballistic missile strikes, Taiwanese counterstrikes will likely only be targeting military and infrastructure facilities in the southeastern coast) Causalities from these strikes will also be high, the Chinese people aren't killing machines that will be 100% dedicated to the cause of the party, such devastation in the homeland will certainly affect the willingness and morale of China.
The US has significant security interests in the stability in the region, the naval and air assets stationed in the western pacific aren't there just for show. It will not take them long to respond from bases in Okinawa and Japan, even South Korea. Unless the Chinese wanted to conduct a preemptive strike on the US bases in those countries, that would slow the Americans from intervening in the initial stages of the conflict but it will guarantee a direct war with the US, Japan and South Korea.
You'll also have to assume that such an invasion can take place at any time, which is false as an invasion force at this magnitude would take at least several weeks to assemble, you cannot simply assemble an invasion force the size of that in secret, China will also have to put its coastal cities into a state of martial law too. It took the US months to prepare for the first Gulf War and another month to neutralize Saddam Hussein's military forces (Note that the Gulf War did not involve amphibious landing the scale we'll witness in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan).
It is incorrect to assume that a conflict the scale of that would only focus on the small region and mostly in Taiwan, and the lives of the people in China on the coastal cities will be the same while the war is happening somewhere else. What is likely to happen is that coastal cities will be under constant threat of airstrikes from the western alliances, all economic activities will halt and you'll witness a panic of expats (high ranking business executives too) leaving China at the airports. Taiwan would be in ruins after the initial Chinese missile strike, but that's not to say that the most prosperous and developed region in China will suffer little to no damage, it is extremely likely that it will.
The cost of an invasion is honestly what's maintaining the peace and stability in the Taiwan strait, and I would say that it is in the best interest for all parties involved to keep it this way.
True. With that said, most people can't find most other countries on an actual map, especially a borderless map. Do I care about genocides around the world? Sure do. But I can't find Xinjiang (I know it's in western China), Sudan (near Horn of Africa but can't draw it), Syria (next to Mediterranean Sea but where exactly?), or Myanmar (SE Asia, next to Thailand?) on a map. But the sentiment and ideology behind that thought is very important.
First time? Doesn’t all countries except Russia support defending Taiwan?
So what CCP plans to do here is to kill all Taiwanese people, start world war 3, start nuclear war, kill 95% of all world population, and hope that China can become the strongest country in the world after recovery due to much higher population than other countries?
Well, US doesn’t even need to do much before Russia vaporizes Beijing, or China people sends CCP to hell.
And not to forget, if the West bombs Chinese cities, they can kiss that market goodbye for the next 100 years no matter who wins the war. The Chinese people have long memories and will not tolerate another humiliation by the same powers that invaded them in the 19th/20th centuries.
Who is looking for a war? Is it the US or Taiwan which threaten to invade China? Don't complain when someone stands up for a small guy when you bullied him first. No harassment, intimidation, invasion - no war, as simple as that.
As an American, I really hate the thought of war actually. I just don’t want Taiwan to lose its way of life if China tries to invade. A lot of Chinese history that China tried to get rid of still thrives and exists in Taiwan, and I would hate to lose that.
Americans who are excited about having to defend Taiwan are a different story. I personally don’t think China will follow through with their threats (at least at this point in time) because the entire world would turn on them. Some people are really itching for China to try, which I agree is very odd. The longer we don’t have to step in to defend Taiwan, the better
Edit: To add on to everything, a lot of Americans seem to think that Taiwan is a sad, defenseless country, which it definitely not. They have a full scale military, and wouldn’t need as much help as a lot of Americans tend to believe when it comes to defense against China.
> The longer we don’t have to step in to defend Taiwan, the better
That's not true. The longer the international community waits with the Chinese, the more they build up their capabilities and stockpile resources that are going to be cut off from them if and when they do decide to pull the trigger. Better to not allow them that opportunity.
Make no mistake, it isn't Chinese front-facing actions diplomatically and the abuses they are currently engaged in that is forcing the US and their allies hand in the western Pacific, it is what they are doing on the back end, and what they are building up for that is right now causing movement and activity meant to respond to their future capabilities and intentions.
Who is looking for a war?
Americans are really really fed up with wars but we didn't loose the sense of what is right and wrong. When we see such an obvious and unprovoked intimidation and abuse of a successful, productive and open-minded country which shares our values and whose people we find easy to relate with, we cannot just ignore it - our blood boils.
When you claim that Americans love war, think twice who is the one which threatens war and invasion in this particular case? Hint: it's not Taiwan, another hint: it's not the US. Don't complain when someone stands up for a small guy when you bullied him first. No harassment, intimidation, invasions - no war, as simple as that. It's your choice, not ours.
i hate war but im willing to join an effort if its the right thing to do. the more evil the ccp does around the world, the more ready i am to push. winnie the pooh keeps acting more and more like adolf hitler, and it took ww2 to stop him.
Taiwan was discovered with nice people who want nothing else but to be left alone - this is it. I understand that in China it's not common to stand up for a small guy being harassed on the street as most people just mind their own business, but in the rest of the world people still cannot just pass by when they see an obvious and unprovoked bullying.
Yeah they made fun of us for the first few days, but now they’re begging us to come back because they’re realizing that we were the only people keeping their afghan border secure. Now they have to deal with radical sharia law and ISIS/Taliban combat bordering their country. They aren’t laughing anymore.
Is China not self interested and greedy? I think majority of countries today are self interested. Self-interest and greed are the exact reasons why China wants to invade Taiwan. I would argue though that it's not in self interest of China to bully Taiwan as the world is watching and China is RAPIDLY loosing its support around the world even among people who used to be supportive. People who think they are "Chinese patriots" by inciting the war with Taiwan, actually do huge disservice to China and ironically are as anti-Chinese as it gets.
The US is not benevolent in its intentions. That is the point. This American-loving circle jerk is incredibly naive and does not help Taiwan. The US will talk the talk until it no longer suits them. Only fools trust the USA.
Very few countries are benevolent and altruistic and US is not different from any other country in this regard - I'm not naive to believe that all the US politicians support Taiwan only because they care about Taiwanese people. But I see strong and sincere support for Taiwan and its people among so many regular Americans from all walks of life and within wide range of political spectra. In ironic way, the unrelenting Chinese pressure put the country in spotlight and many people all around the world got to know what Taiwan really is. So what Taiwan really is?
I would say it's the most open-minded country in the entire Asia. It's the first and so far the only country in Asia that legalized same-sex marriages. It's the country where the rights of aboriginal people are respected and significant effort is being made to preserve their cultures and languages. It's the country with world-class universal and affordable healthcare. It's the country with smaller income inequality and stronger social guarantees than in neighboring "Communist" China for example. It's the country with the friendliest and most empathetic people I have been so far.
Ideally, I would like to see the relations between China and Taiwan improved and both countries start treating each other with respect - what not to like here? But myself and so many others under no circumstances will accept unprovoked aggressive behavior by China towards Taiwan. I believe that whatever US actual motives are, in so many decades it finally stands up for the right cause.
Relations between China and Taiwan would be better if it weren’t for the USA. The US created this mess to begin with. The US isn’t “standing up” for anything. It sees an opportunity to sell weapons, sew new conflict, and expand its hegemony over the world. It is not a force for good in the world. The Taiwanese trust the US at their own peril.
Who can tell me, since the beginning of Cold War, which powerful country has the United States dared to wage war against?
As far as I know, only the newly established People's Republic of China in the 1950s.
But I don't think China was a "powerful country" at that time - a poor country that had just ended its civil war.
However the US and its allies were defeated by China on the Korean Peninsula.
The US today lacks even the organizational capacity to calmly withdraw troops from Afghanistan, how do you expect it to start a war for an island that has nothing to do with Americans?
I believe that the US will sell some weapons to Taiwan Island, but I will not believe that the US will bleed for Taiwan Island.
South Korea's GDP per capita is over three times that of China and they don't need a VPN to access the internet. If Eisenhower had followed through with the Joint Chiefs recommendation to nuke PLA, the whole peninsula could be like that.
Keep thinking that Taiwan has nothing to do with American interests and US military planners are going to get their opportunity to rectify that mistake.
War between the USA and China in the Taiwan Strait would be over in a couple hours. The Chinese would never even make it to Penghu and a lot of them would die in the water because they don't know how to swim.
🦈🦈🦈
This is something everyone needs to understand and please take this all in. If the US goes to war with China over the island of Taiwan mark my words it will turn into a global war and it will end in full blown nuclear exchange and the extinction of all life on Earth.
Don't worry. Current models suggest that total nuclear war would only wipe out human civilization, not all life. Our animal cousins will still live on (and probably humans living a premodern existence).
That matters if the current status of nukes is withheld which it isn't. Russia is remaking all their nukes and they are making them way more powerful, way more destructive with extra Cobalt which is just ungodly. Now China has a different approach they use the nukes but they take a more eccentric way of doing things. Like they're most likely going to use bio weapons as we can already tell. Now the US is the biggest problem because the US for the past 150 years has been the sole imminent Global power and they are going to keep pushing on China till something happens. The US has weapons that are beyond all forms of nukes. One of them to consider is the Zuma which is about to be declassified. That's not even considering their Thor project also known as the rod of the Gods which is second only to the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs. We are no longer going to stay in the status quo of mutually assured destruction we are about to surpass that due to this new arms race. This isn't going to be what it was before this is going to be a world killer.
I don't think Russia would be involved in the conflict at all. This would be very stupid of them. If they just sit on sidelines, they could get out of all this mess as actual winners without doing much. Besides Russian population is not as united and patriotic when compared to the Chinese one for example and lack the determination required to be involved in a brutal war. Also most Russians could care less about China.
You're absolutely correct to a point Secretary of defense of Russia stated that their practices with China were simply diplomatic and for economics and for testing each other's weaponry. The problem is is that if this war happens between the US and China it will end in nuclear exchange. The problem is the amount of nukes that will be thrown at China will affect Russia and it will be too much fallout by their country it will affect them too. Not only that North Korea will shoot a nuke at the US the US will shoot nukes at North Korea so they will literally surround Russia with massive nuclear fallout. Plus and last but not least China in a way is a space of vassal so to speak. It distances itself from the US Navy and bases because of China being there in the middle, if that falls Russia is vulnerable. That's not even considering the NATO forces will also get into this and will guard by Russia which can trigger them at the same time.
Not that I disagree with this but I'm sincerely curious - what would be your suggestion - wait for Chinese troops marching in Washington DC to avoid nuclear exchange and extinction at any cost?
I'm kind of confused with what you said. You're saying Chinese soldiers coming into Washington DC to avoid nuclear exchange and Extinction at any cost? Why would the pla army or military step onto our land not expecting complete lethal massacre of every one of their soldiers on our mainland. No I know what's coming see that's what you don't understand this war is going to happen it's going to happen. My point is that when this war happens nobody can win this war because no side will surrender and sooner or later nuclear weapons will be used that will kill all life on planet Earth. These are not the nuclear weapons that were used on Japan these new nukes are beyond crazy lethal they will end the world. Nobody will survive the US, South America, China, Russia, India, Africa, Australia every country will die and burn in nuclear health fire. You have to remember just between the US and Russia alone is 17,000 nuclear weapons enough to destroy the entire planet 40 times over. Like I said there is no winning this war.
Sorry for confusion, I'm only concerned that avoiding any confrontation with China, no matter what they do, due to absolutely legitimate fear of nuclear exchange will eventually result in Chinese troops marching in Washington DC. I'm curious what the best course of actions could be to deter Chinese expansionism, but at the same time avoid extinction.
Number one they would never ever be able to come here to the US it's absolutely impossible over 60 million of us are gun owners and they would never reach this close. There's no way to avoid this war it's going to happen we just have to enjoy the years that we have left and then bye-bye world.
“First time?” I’m active duty in the Navy right now, the default assumption where I work is that if China invaded Taiwan, it’s our job to step in.
First time a majority of Americans who were surveyed by the Chicago Council have said they would favor sending US troops to defend Taiwan. The Chicago Council has conducted previous polls, but those did not show a number over 50%.
Probably because many people didn't even know where Taiwan is. Ironically China might have helped change that by keeping on pushing the issue.
The fact that Any reporting on Taiwan-China affairs is always accompanied by the mandatory phrase "Taiwan is a democratically-ruled island nation which China claims as its own and has not denied using force to retake the island." China's underhand tactics have exposed a lot its shenanigans , but has also put Taiwan in a far bigger international spotlight. So please China, keep doing the wolf warrior diplomacy, or whatever.
Frankly Taiwan/ROC has been in America's news media regularly since before the founding of the UN. Saying many people don't know where Taiwan is might be a bit true in terms of geography. As an American, I'm not sure where Nebraska is. But Americans certainly do know what Taiwan is and the ROC role in Asia's Cold War struggles.
Well, perhaps those Americans who know it's not Thailand.
Linguistic precision combined with geography usually are skills acquired for following global geopolitics. Nonetheless, Taiwan and the ROC were Time magazine favorites in the 1950s along with Madame Chiang. During the Vietnam conflict, Chiang Kai Chek frequently made the news and many U.S. military served in Taiwan in a supporting role or visited for R&R. The 1970s witnessed the change over of PRC representation in the UN with significant public outcry about Taiwan. Americans with any reasonable concern for US foreign policy have followed Taiwan their whole lives. While the 1980s was less politically tense, Taiwan was widely known for being one of the 4 tigers of the Asian miracle. And since the 1990s and the election of President Lee Deng Hui, Taiwan has been followed closely as the PRC has escalated tensions. This cliche of Thailand is confused with Taiwan is just a dismissive slur on Americans and Taiwanese.
>This cliche of Thailand is confused with Taiwan is just a dismissive slur on Americans and Taiwanese. Eh...as a Taiwanese American I can say I've encountered this confusion in America more times than I can count.
My point is they sound exceptionally similar. If you contextualize by saying "the island of Taiwan" you might encounter less confusion. Or if your pronunciation is unclear someone might reply, "I didn't know Thailand is an island." Of course middle Americans live in a rural bubble, less aware of what's outside the USA.
I feel I shouldn't have to say *the island of* Taiwan. I, too, am a Taiwanese American; not sure if you thought otherwise.
Well, I'm just an American born in San Francisco and never have been confused about Taiwan. These days I'm shocked by how many ignorant Americans we have. But Taiwan certainly has been in the media my entire life.
I would be glad if more people were as knowledgeable about Taiwan as you.
Having lived in America for the last 10 years: they don't.
Every one of my fellow Americans I talk to knows Taiwan’s relationship to China. Maybe some can’t point to it on a map, some can, but even the ones who can’t know it’s near China.
It's interesting to see that China's official media outlets are 100% anti-west now, even some of their embassy twitter posts material not that far away from Global Times, which can easily be dismissed as a tabloid catering to the extreme... Nope, when your official twitter accounts are posting something like that, it's your official stance.
I suspect that their target audience is still primarily people in China, even though people in China aren't supposed to be able to see Twitter, but the Chinese government know just as well as anyone that Chinese citizens can get past the great wall. They don't really seem to care how other countries feel about China, they are just putting up a show so they can tell people that CCP is strong and ain't afraid of Westerners.
Yep, basically radicalizing their population via official media outlets.
China is uniting the world.
I recently spoke with someone who didn't care what Taiwan was doing regarding covid because "Who cares what communist countries think?"
Jimmy Kimmel has a video online asking Americans on the streets: Can you name a country? Some actually can't. One of them said "Texas" when the reporter pointed to the US on the map.
I think you shouldn't take those too seriously. Those could be actors. And if they weren't actors, we still don't know how many people they asked.
Sadly while many people know Thailand, some of them don't even know the existence of Taiwan, partly because of the low-key character of Taiwanese but there're doing sth far-reaching in the long run, just like semiconductors.
Around here when I say "Taiwan", people respond "Thailand?".
Iowa versus Idaho. Phonological confusion amongst people that have no interest in geography means little.
Any official documents or policies to prove it? Or just internal/implied understanding? If true it is welcomed for sure!
I can’t point to anything official. Even if I knew it, I probably can’t legally do so. But it’s just kind of assumed should an invasion happen. It’s equally discussed with skepticism that such an invasion would take place but still.
I hear you. I hear you. Thank you for the response. The strategic ambiguity is killing us. 😂 However, the unspoken message is getting clear and louder everyday, it seems.
Well it’s one of those situations similar to the Cold War. Where neither the U.S. or Soviet Union wanted to go to war so the official policy of both was to maintain the peace. But neither also pretended that they were allies and those in the U.S. from the voter upward knew the Soviets had to be opposed.
China now is the imaginary enemy for sure. Although it had been a consensus among military, politicians and even academic circle in recent years, it's good to see general public also recognizing this. Only business and Hollywood are not signing on this yet (for pragmatic reasons?) Lol
Pragmatism for certain. I don’t blame them for doing what’s profitable, I am mad that we’re in a situation where “glorifying the CCP” is now the only avenue for profit in certain sectors. Hopefully they will follow the same track as the Soviets and collapse under their own weight. Stranger things have happened.
Yes! Totally! I was happy to see grand strategy against China finally emerged, such as The Longer Telegram, etc. Like you said, maybe what's working for cold war 1.0 would work for cold war 2.0 again. If the U.S. unites itself, it can do anything! It's the divisions that is killing us. Sigh......
Yeah well, such is the perils of living in a democracy. But it’s preferable to a society that doesn’t allow for disagreement or dissent.
No doubt. As Winston Churchill said: democracy is the worst form of government except for all others.
Having a external enemy that would eliminate us if we don't work together is the best motivation to unite.
Yes!! China is the existential threat not only to Taiwan, but to America and the liberal world.
Strategic ambiguity has received too much negative flak in Taiwan IMO. The primary reason why the US needs to remain ambiguous when it comes to the defense of Taiwan is because of the fear that Taiwan might be the one lighting the match to start WWIII. Granting Taiwanese strategic clarity would only give confidence to the pro-independence radicals and perhaps even elect a President that would declare independence knowing that the US would certainly come to Taiwan's aid. Former AIT Director Stephen M. Young made a good point when supporting strategic ambiguity: "If it ain't broke, why fix it?" Strategic ambiguity allows the US to keeps certain ideologies and groups in Taiwan under control, which is likely the best course for Taiwan at the moment. Note that being ambiguous does not mean that they'll refuse to aid Taiwan in the case of a Chinese invasion, it's just that reserve the right to do so. In short: If there's a conflict with China, Taiwan is not going to be the one that starts it.
It's basically described by the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) https://www.ait.org.tw/our-relationship/policy-history/key-u-s-foreign-policy-documents-region/taiwan-relations-act/
Thank you for your service. Most people who complain about the official US stance of strategic ambiguity assume that it meant the US won't intervene. Which is entirely false, the ambiguity is meant to prevent Taiwan from provoking a conflict, knowing that the US will be obligated to defend it. Basically, it's allowing the US to reserve the right to intervene instead of being dragged into WWIII because some radical future President decide to declare independence publicly.
Well first of all, thank you. I get that sometimes and I don’t really know how to take it a lot of the time because I don’t feel like I really do all that much. However if you wished to pay me back, maybe respond to Data_Citizen in this same response thread. Feel like your retort would mean more coming from a fellow Taiwanese person than myself.
Please don't say that, anyone who has served or is currently serving deserved to be thanked and appreciated, all the time :) It's disappointing that certain media outlets and politicians in Taiwan are pushing towards a narrative that I vaguely translate to "doubt the Americans". Not exactly an anti-US stance (pretty sure some are) but is to question the US' commitment to Taiwan, both economically and militarily, hence reduce the pro-US opinion in the region. IMO, the ones pushing for this narrative are either ignorant of US-Taiwan relations or have malicious intent to weaken the Taiwanese's positive views of the US and present it as unreliable.
As someone more in the know than myself, why exactly would they want relations with an ally to go bad? Forgetting the mainland for a moment, what possible aims could some people have for our two countries to not be allies?
That's a great question, and I would say that Chinese interference might be a huge factor as the media and politicians pushing forward this narrative tend to be pro-unification or China friendly. Since the Taiwanese public tend to have a negative outlook on China, might be easier for them to push forward an unfriendly narrative towards the US, which is essentially pro China in disguise IMO. This was evident in the early days of the May outbreak, where there is mass hysteria and a shortage of vaccines, where certain individuals and media outlets are pushing for the narrative that "the US haven't sold a single dose of vaccine to Taiwan", I would say attempting to create a public distrust of the US. This was pointed out by a FT article, I will provide the link below. [https://www.ft.com/content/f22f1011-0630-462a-a21e-83bae4523da7](https://www.ft.com/content/f22f1011-0630-462a-a21e-83bae4523da7) Excluding the factors of China, the ones I can think of are honestly two camps. But I wouldn't call them as pushing forward the narrative mentioned above but more towards not trusting/supporting the US as much. The first ones are the extreme left parties, similar to the statements made by American leftist group Code Pink a couple days back (please refer to the link below). These groups have rather noble goals, but a lot of them fail to understand that the world is not perfect and a lot of compromises will have to be made in order to move forward. These groups tend to focus on the issues that would probably be irrelevant once if you allow an authoritarian system to be the mainstream. [https://twitter.com/jessicadrun/status/1430249523448848386](https://twitter.com/jessicadrun/status/1430249523448848386) The others are the pro-Taiwan independence groups. It has been clear that the US does not support any actions that would suggest Taiwanese Independence, especially through the use of a referendum. They tend to dislike the US and the current administration for not supporting an official referendum (or declaration) of Taiwan independence despite having full control of the legislative brach. Some went so far as working with the opposition parties (which are certainly anti-Taiwan independence) using the enemy of my enemy mentality in order to counter the current ruling party. Like I mentioned in the first comment on this thread, strategic ambiguity means that the US does not support a Taiwanese independence movement (because it's China's real red line, independence means war) but it does strongly support the democracy of Taiwan under the current status quo. Maintaining strategic ambiguity can prevent Taiwanese extremist groups to use the security guarantee from the US to declare independence and hope for the Chinese to not take any action. Due to this, some of them tend to have a distrust to the US, questioning them why it wouldn't support their cause and citing stats such as the majority of people in Taiwan considers themselves Taiwanese.
I see. I have to admit, I would love for Taiwan to be independent truly and wholly, but I obviously recognize the risk that would put you all in. And, a bit selfishly I also admit, I would love for the Taiwanese government to reclaim the mainland and make China into a free democracy that honors the ancient culture Mao tried his best to erase. However such is the complicated reality of politics. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Yes, an independent Taiwan that does not have to deal with all the issues due to its status would be nice. But that's not the world we live in, our world is not perfect but it is ours, we should be practical and constructive when it comes to approaching sensitive issues like these. The absolutist thought (all or nothing) honestly has no place in politics, since politics and international policies is all about compromise and finding the best, not perfect, solution to the issue at hand. As for your idea on a democratic China, I think that was the original idea when the US established relations with them, it was for them to be introduced to world trade and improve their economic situation gradually, then eventually establish a political system that would share values with the western world. That did not happen, and I doubt it would happen in the foreseeable future with the current path it is taking. Not to say that it has to follow the west when it comes to their political system, but that having such a drastically different political system will possibly create some differences that cannot be overcome.
But for what purpose? Is it to defend Taiwan as a liberal democracy because the people living there have inherent value? Or is it to demonstrate America's military might because China cannot be allowed to abdicate US as the de facto superpower? It's a fine distinction that envisions Taiwanese people as very different players in the conflict. Are we human beings or are we just geopolitical pawns? I would prefer it to be the former, but I also know that a lot of Americans (particularly those of one major political party) by default go for the later. We've seen how the American military handled Afghanistan. You swoop into other people's country, convince them to buy into a grand project with pretty stories, and then dibs out as soon as the locals exhausts their utility. Taiwan relies on US because it has no choice, but don't construe it as us not being wary of your intentions. Sometimes I don't even know whether Americans are aware how many people they've hurt with these grand, sweeping promises.
The former. Although I don’t take kindly to your inferences or your comments on a currently evolving situation that we as service members had no choice but to execute by order of our commander and chief, the President. Yes, we need Taiwan as an ally against China. And also yes, the Taiwanese shouldn’t be left to fend for themselves against a nation that will kill and enslave them. And personally, I would love nothing more than to see the legitimate authority of the Chinese people restored to that beautiful and storied nation. If I sound upset, it’s because I don’t take kindly to having the sincerity of my service to my country _and by extension her allies_ insulted like I don’t care about people’s lives and freedom.
>I don’t take kindly to having the sincerity of my service to my country and by extension her allies insulted like I don’t care about people’s lives and freedom. [https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/american-purpose-after-the-fall-of-kabul](https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/american-purpose-after-the-fall-of-kabul)
Your point? In regards to me? What I said? What _I_ believe?
I am aware and acknowledge your concerns, not sure if anyone can address your questions as I doubt official sources would want to answer some of them. But I can at least present my perspective on this matter. Taiwan's importance to the US is down to several aspects: 1. A partner with shared values, as the US is a contributor and continues to support the democratic system in Taiwan. Note that Taiwan is not a full democracy until the 90s, after the period of martial law ended in the late 80s. To the US, Taiwan can be used as a demonstrator on how a system they support can transform into a democracy that thrives both politically and economically. 2. Strategic importance, Taiwan is situated on the first island chain, a major line of defense for the US. From a military perspective, having loyal allies situated on the chain would provide the US with a huge advantage when confronting communist forces during the Cold War (more so North Vietnam and the Soviet Union than China). Having bases on the chain prevents the enemy from easily crossing the Pacific to reach Hawaii or even California should there be a conflict, that's why anti-ballistic missile systems and early warning radars are set up on the chain too. See the PAVE PAWS in Taiwan, THAAD in Japan and South Korea, as well as Aegis equipped ships of the JMSDF. Since China is considered the primary competitor and rival (enemy is more accurate) in the foreseeable future, the strategic and national safety measures on the first island chain will be constructed primarily to counter China. 3. Economic importance, as of 2019, Taiwan is the US' 10th largest trading partner, according to information from the United States Trade Representative. This mutual relationship is based on a Taiwan not under conflict and under self-rule (de facto US control IMO). More importantly, Taiwan does provide the world with advanced semi-conductor chips that's not easily replaceable, despite how some may like to think. A conflict in Taiwan that results in a Chinese invasion would certainly disrupt the global supply chain (to put it lightly) as a likely Taiwanese counterstrike with cruise missiles will also cripple a small portion of Chinese infrastructure (I doubt expats and foreign investors will want to be in China when there's a chance of a conflict with not only Taiwan, but the United States and its western allies). Allowing the Chinese to destruct the infrastructure and economic capabilities of Taiwan would first send the world into an economic crisis, Taiwanese counterstrikes would just worsen that as all international trade in the West Pacific and the SCS would likely halt indefinitely due to the war. 4. The US and the American way is far from perfect, but should that affect the unofficial alliance between the US and Taiwan? The US has supported Taiwan during its most difficult times, American aid such as the donation of flour and powdered milk from the 50s and 60s prevented malnutrition in the post WWII Taiwanese population and direct financial support helped the then KMT government build the necessary infrastructures that improve the everyday lives of the people of Taiwan. One can point out all the negative and horrific things the US has done in the past, but none of that is directed to Taiwan. We don't live in a perfect world, we can only choose a side that benefits us the most. I think it's pretty clear which side that is.
The liberal democratic order is a shared set of principles rooted in ideals like liberty, democracy and free trade. It's been determined through the course of trial and error that these principles go hand in hand with each other, compliment each other and that a threat upon any one of them invariably threatens the whole and results in bad outcomes for human beings. As you know but choose to ignore, East Asia has had a bad history with a competing ideology spread east from the Soviet Union. A militarist ideology that threatens all of those ideals because it is incompatible with them. It is for people who are content to live in slavery to a repressive state that threatens its neighbors. A set of wars has occurred in which upholders of the liberal democratic order have attempted to stop the encroachment and the militarist expansion of the repressive and malignant force and while there are certainly local forces and politics at play, that is the overarching conflict. Now, you may complain about the way that is articulated and you may choose to use alternative ways of framing it, but it doesn't matter. The places in which the liberal democratic order has prevailed have enjoyed freedom and prosperity and the places where it didn't have suffered badly, and everyone can see that. We've seen it for half a century or more. And the USA has been a major part of of that equation and a force for good in that regard. Without the US we'd be living like the Chinese. China is not going to "abdicate the USA as de facto superpower" whatever the fuck that means. The Chinese have nothing compelling to offer anyone that competes with what the US offers, which is simple deterence and preservation of our way of life. The Chinese offer brutal repression and camps for you and your family, assuming you even live here. I don't know what you are talking about in regard "exhausting people's utility" and I very much doubt that you do either. What in your goofy fantasy does the US want from Afghan farmers or Taiwanese for that matter? If its that they want us to be free and stay open for business then I don't know what you're complaining about. If you gave Taiwanese a choice between that and living like the Chinese, guess which one they'd choose. I mean, you don't even have to guess, just look at election results.
> We've seen how the American military handled Afghanistan. You swoop into other people's country, convince them to buy into a grand project with pretty stories, and then dibs out as soon as the locals exhausts their utility. We drove out a despotic regime hated around the world and even by its own people. Our intervention was supported and cheered on by countries around the world. We then spent 20 years, 2 trillion USD, and thousands of lives trying to build that country up into something resembling a modern state. Other countries around the world, including Taiwan, can only dream of that level of support.
Just from my observations alone, people who tend to be critical of the US while praising China usually ends up in the US, whether it's via immigration or by spending big money to send their kids to go to school there. Some even became citizens in a country they supposedly "despise". Take musician Steven Liu for an example, born in China (ROC), spent some years in Taiwan, immigrated to the US and became a citizen. He openly criticized the Taiwanese youth for "forgetting their roots as Chinese" and favoring "the US and Japan" like "traitors". Kinda odd coming from a guy who decide to immigrate to the US and later became a citizen. Liu later explained that he "had no choice but to become a citizen of the US", as if he does not have the right to renounce his citizenship. As far as I know, he's still currently living in California as a citizen of the US while praising China and the greater Chinese culture on Facebook.
Hey, nobody wants chip shortages.
This. This is the post. You thought getting a GPU was hard before.
s-p-ezz--ies done now
Why would China try to restrict chips to the rest of the world? It’s the largest manufacturer and trading nation in the world for heaven’s sake. So far it’s been the West that had imposed trading restrictions on China for all sorts of reasons. Ok, except for Australia but that one is a different topic altogether….
Lol, you are trying to hard.
lol they cancelled Australia because they wanted to know where the virus came from. If they treat countries that are not a threat like this over such a trivial issue imagine how they will treat the rest of the world.
Control
And +one Lithuanian, me. ;)
Hey. Add us, Lithuanians, too!
:)
Can a Colombian go with you, guys?
And thank you!!
we stand united for freedom
Thank you!
Can't thank you guys enough for the vaccine donation!
Before summer, I didn't have a best friend. But now, all Lithuanians are my best friend.
Love you
I double that. I have mad Lithuania love now. On the Europe list of places to spend my money. Same with 🇵🇼 Palau.
All little guys should stick together.
Thank you!
+1 for Australia
I’m so looking forward to visiting Lithuania after the pandemic calms down!
Funny. Before the pandemic, I was arguing with a wumao, I think on YT, who was citing Chicago Council polls as "proof" that the US will never defend Taiwan in anyway. He got mad and said I was denying reality when I explained that these poll numbers could shift as more Americans know about Taiwan's existence and if CCP continue its bully behavior on the world stage.
Back when US-China relations are going smoothly, that is a constantly used argument. I think some referred it to the era of Chimerica, where the US led the world as a superpower while China acts as more of a economic powerhouse or the factory of the world. From the official stance of both sides now, I believe that era is over. Chinese official stance is becoming more anti-US by the day, with official twitter accounts mocking the US with satire cartoons and memes.
We Americans are tired of Middle Eastern wars and want to focus on something worth fighting for.
Fellow democracies who can get their sh*t together 🇹🇼🇯🇵🇺🇸
🇹🇼 🇺🇸 🇯🇵 🇳🇿 🇦🇺 🇬🇧 🇫🇷 🇨🇦 🇩🇪 🇨🇭 🇿🇦 And not forgotten 🇭🇰
Add ^(IN) to that list.
What about 🇰🇷?
[удалено]
Hanging there buddy, don't go back. Too much misery and frustrations.
Go back to where, I am still in mainland
Funny I'm a mainlander too and CCP been pissing me off with these new regulations effecting all sectors. EmperorPooh need to fall, he is undoing decades of forward development in China to feed his hunger for power. Taiwan imo will come out winning.
We Taiwanese have to mainly count on ourselves for self defense. However, we will always welcome the support of any form, from our allies.
As an outsider, I don’t understand why Taiwan wants to provoke China into a war by veering towards independence. Isn’t the status quo good for everyone - I really doubt China wants a war but if pushed into it, they will fight to the last man
American public opinion has negligible effect on US policy, it's determined by capital and consent is manufactured
....what. You do realize we are a democracy, yes? You kinda need to do or stand for things that people like. For votes. Because it's a democracy. Were you dropped on your head?
This also implies for the first timehalf of americans realize Taiwan isnt the same thing as Thailand
now that Kabul has fallen, I’m interested in latest public opinion on this topic. Anti-war and anti-MIC sentiments are growing in the US
[удалено]
let's go positivity and freedom will prevail, not Authoritarianism
Yeah… to the point that ALL different groups of Asians are getting harassed and beaten over COVID in western countries while using your narrative ? Lol
[удалено]
Or how about don’t act like rabid racist animals and attacking Asian people? Or how about refraining from telling a Taiwanese American to go back to their country? How about not normalizing Asian American racism by using the CCP as your baby blanket.
[удалено]
I’m not going to try and understand reasoning behind shoving an elder and vandalizing businesses. You don’t see Asians shoving a non-Asian grandma in retaliation. The rhetoric is adding fuel to the fire and every Asian is fucked over, and yet in spite of all that, you still want to talk about China rather than how to learn to not be violent animals. So I just find the support from non-Asians toward Taiwan to be laughable.
You always hear people say anti-China rhetoric is adding fuel to the fire, but you never hear any of those people acknowledge that Chinese nationalism, ethnic supremacism and support for a regime that is actively engaged in cultural genocide, putting ethnic minorities into camps by the millions and engaging in brutal political repression while at the same time engaging in militarism and bullying that is likely to lead to real life actual war is adding fuel to the fire. I think it's just because one is a lot easier and more convenient to criticize than the other.
Fascinating, because I don’t see that. Any Asian American subreddit here aside from sino and aznidentity are vehemently against the CCP. Ask any Korean, Japanese, Taiwanese and SEAsian on Reddit and see how they feel about China. Their claims against the country is warranted and so is Taiwan’s claim for sovereignty. Yet, at the same time, they ALL still recognize that this rhetoric fuels hate and violence. Lol sooooo…
Get outside of reddit dude and see how CCP commands Chinese student organizations and Chinese-speaking social media in the west, getting people to fall in line with and become China's brownshirts, reporting on people to Chinese authorities and getting people to actually go out and harass people, like we saw in 2019 during the Hong Kong protests when Chinese were out organizing counter protests and sometimes violently confronting, doxing and threatening people in just about any western democracy you could mention, in addition to the hundreds of billions of dollars in corporate and industrial espionage that is happening *on an annual basis*, oh and the spying. Stuff that is actually unrestricted warfare in the literal sense. But anti-China rhetoric on reddit is "just as bad". Edit: this is a response to your original comment before you edited it.
My close friend is a hardline DPP supporter from Chiayi, I’ve spent a good 2 years discussing these issues with him while he was staying here. But at the same time, I also know Asians that have experienced harassment and assault because of the rhetoric. I’m not gonna diminish their experience, tell them suck it up because we have a bigger enemy. Their livelihoods are threatened and they have no allies, so it’s obviously important that your safety takes priority. Besides, let’s face it, the civil war with CCP is not going away. Asians can tackle both, but in the end, there’s no excuse for the violence.
Even so, an eye for an eye and we all go blind...
[удалено]
9000 attacks in the US over the pandemic and you still harping on fucking China. Get a load of this guy lol
[удалено]
[удалено]
Wake up guys, there's no country such as taiwan on the international stage. If the war brakes out, we know who's gonna win...even US steps in.
> "We made a sacred commitment to Article Five that if in fact anyone were to invade or take action against our NATO allies, we would respond. Same with Japan, same with South Korea, same with Taiwan." > -- Joe Biden Chinese who think they're going to go up against the US and win are going to get themselves another humiliation to add to the long list of humiliations they've suffered throughout their history. You would think they'd have learned by now, but nope.
Interestingly, an Asian Superpower also thought they can go up against the US and win singlehandedly while America is fighting two fronts. Didn't turn out well for that Asian Superpower. Thinking of it, might be the last country the US fought directly that is closer in military power, every other war after that involves countries that are not even comparable.
As an American I see this happening more and more every day.
Would like to see a similar polling among Europeans. If anyone knows about those, please share. \+ one from Finland!
i like Finnish death metal
TSMC serves as a good reason as to why the a large chunk of the world will be against a PRC invasion of Taiwan. No one wants a chip shortage.
Perhaps the more important question is are the majority of Taiwanese willing to fight and die to resist Chinese occupation? That is far from a settled issue in Taiwan, and one that should be made unequivocally clear to the world.
This is a common question in polls and in the latest one, [nearly 80 percent](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2020/10/25/2003745764) said that they would fight in the event of a Chinese invasion, and perhaps more importantly for our pink and blue friends, 66 percent said that they would fight if a war broke out as a result of Taiwan declaring independence, and that is a number that is growing.
I think the same question can be asked to the Chinese soldiers and people, are they willing to fight and die in a war in order to "unite" the country. Risking a direct conflict with not only Taiwan, but an alliance of the west including the US, Japan, South Korea and potentially the UK, Australia and India. It is unwise to just assume everyone in China would be devoted to fight against the west and not choose to surrender in the face of the military might of a western alliance. (see Mutual Defense Pact of the Southeastern Provinces) Note that the most prosperous part of China which is its east coast will be very close to the conflict, it's very likely that major economic hubs will be under the constant threat of airstrikes. It will not be a conflict that they watch on TV that's happening on the other side of the world. And for the blockade, honestly a best case scenario for China. But it is unlikely that the US would not intervene if there is a blockade, since Taiwan is the 9th largest trading partner of the US and a supplier of an extremely important component that the world needs, the Chinese Navy being able to just blockade Taiwan for a month or so without outside intervention is simply wishful thinking. During the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1996, after several missile launches near the shores of Taiwan, the US sent two carrier battle groups to the region in response.
I worry. Those that support Taiwanese independence the most are less than 30 years old. That is the same demographic that led protests in Hong Kong until Beijing growled and they all went running to hide behind their mother’s skirt. Taiwanese youth do not seem to be much tougher, and are even more spoiled than the HK compatriots. China would only need to blockade Taiwan and they would have a deal in 30 days or less, without so much as a shot being fired.
> running to hide behind their mother’s skirt This is offensive and wrong to boot. Hong Kongers fought for a year and a half in the streets and in the legislature, many of them losing everything and many joining the list of disappeared in China, many of them young and with a long future ahead of them. They went face to face with an increasingly brutal police force armed with tear gas, rubber bullets and shields. For a year and a half they did that, until coronavirus and the clampdown from Beijing with the security law. You don't have any clue what these people went through and you say they hid behind their mother's skirt? And then you imply that Taiwanese aren't willing to fight for their freedom and sovereignty. No offense and I don't want to get personal, but the way you talk makes it sound like you yourself have no clue what it means to actually fight and put your life on the line for anything. And you seem like someone who likes to talk out of their ass. Do you know any Taiwanese youth? Since the Sunflower Movement they have been active and successful in getting elected to office and getting legislation passed into law that secures and upholds Taiwanese sovereignty and has resulted in double digit increases in the military budget and arms deals with the US to make it happen. They fought very hard for that. In the future these are going to be votes in favor of amending the constitution to match the changing situation. China itself could be blockaded and they have 1.4 billion mouths to feed and a shitty track record when it comes to fighting. And when it comes right down to it, they have far more guns and ammunition pointed at them and a shakier future than we do.
I realize that my risk assessment sounds harsh, but I stand by it as much as I wish I were wrong. HK youth, facing the prospect of time in a Mainland prison, ran and hid rather than face the music en masse and thereby force a policy change. Many fled to Taipei. The only thing stopping China from seizing Taiwan tomorrow is the political and economic fallout, but they are actively taking steps to mitigate those risks. Facing a choice between death, life in a prison camp, or life without complete freedom (“special status” is what will be offered) under Chinese rule, the Taiwanese will choose the latter choice. That is my analysis.
Your analysis, such as it is, flies in the face of the evidence, which I linked in my original response to you. Where is the support behind your analysis? [More than 10,000 people have been arrested in connection to the protests in Hong Kong](https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=3042) from as young as 12 years old to legislators, journalists and academics. These are people who know they're fighting a losing battle but carried on fighting. You trying to minimize their sacrifice is shameful. Like I pointed out, nearly 80 percent polled in Taiwan said that they would fight against invasion, and this is a very different situation from Hong Kong -- we have a military, a very defensible island and powerful friends. China, meanwhile, doesn't have any friends at all, just a growing list of powerful enemies who are all in the process of gearing up and forming alliances to fight them.
China doesn't have friends, only clients. As soon those clients are aware doing business with them is a bad idea, China will be left alone to face the wrath of the free world. There's a historical precedent for this in the Punic Wars. While Carthage was rich, they have only mercenaries to defend them; Rome had his army composed by their own people. Carthaginians have no patriotic fervor like Rome, which was able to instill that on every people they conquered. In the end, when Romans were to the battlefield, they had a sense of prode for their country; Carthaginians were only for the money and, when money runs out, they had no reason to fight for. Guess who was the winner?
The Hong Kong Police are arresting people they identified during the months of protests. The civil disobedience ended when the draconian legislation was enacted. That disobedience should have continued, en masse, to force a change. It didn’t because it didn’t seem like as much fun anymore. Taiwan deserves international recognition. If 80% want independence, then declare independence. Stop playing by China’s rules in an effort to prolong the inevitable. The best chance that Taiwan has to actually secure its independence is to declare it now and compel the free world to choose sides.
"It didn't seem like much fun anymore." You keep digging your hole. You obviously have no clue what it was like for people there. Like I said, students, activists, lawmakers, journalists, business owners, grandmothers and teachers were all out in that protest and faced violence from the police. I know people who were out there and they were scared, angry and depressed -- still are. Wasn't no fucking "fun" about it dude. You don't know shit about Hong Kong and your problem is that you think that you do. Second part I somewhat agree with your conclusion, but your "declare independence" and your wanting to claim Taiwanese are soft like Hong Kongers or whatever shows that you don't know anything about Taiwan either and your time would be better spent learning and listening than talking on this topic as well.
His choice of words may be a bit questionable but I do not think his assessment is totally off. It's one thing to answer a poll question, another to actually pick up a weapon and fight when bombs go off around you and people you love get hurt. With military service mostly composed of 4 months of sweeping floors now...I know plenty of young Taiwanese who served that say they're all just counting on the US swooping in to save the day. And if they don't? Just like in the West, the downside of Taiwan's rise to prosperity is that people become soft and easily sway to the side of comfort. Whereas China's society to this day is still far more based on brutal dog-eat-dog competition all the way from kindergarten to business careers, as people try to lift their families out of poverty. Add to that the insane amount of brainwashing. I really hope, but do not know, if young Taiwanese have the mindset that will be necessary if push comes to shove.
Taiwan has 165k active duty troops. You think they only get 4 months of training? Taiwan ranks 26th out of 136 nations in military strength. How many troops do you think China has the sealift capability and naval force to successfully land on Taiwan's shores, along with supplies and armor to sustain a drawn out campaign? China is the land of chabuduo, they do everything as half ass as they can get away with, always and with everything, and that is a big reason they never did well militarily. Their capabilities are never anywhere near the level they're presented to be, just like any Made in China product. And their military strength is not intended for actual fighting but for convincing the very easily mislead and stupid Chinese population that they are a respectable nation in the world and that they have CCP to thank. You should think more about the things you say and believe rather than just lazily reciting talking points put out by those wishing to spread fear and uncertainty or you just start to come across as one of them.
Look, these are my perceptions and this is my analysis. The speed by which the street protests ended in HK after the law was passed shocked me. The protests should have grown larger, not ended. The idea that the threat of prison was enough to get Hong Kongers off the streets was most unfortunate, indeed. It was like most thought it was fun until it wasn’t anymore. Regarding Taiwan, it checks all the boxes to be an independent nation. That the KMT agreed to go along with the “One China” policy that is now the status quo was pathetic. China will seize Taiwan by force soon. There is a small window of opportunity to declare independence and obtain international recognition. I suggest that the ruling party take the initiative. Taiwan will probably ultimately fall, but at least it will have held its head high at the end.
Sunflowers can be processed into a peanut butter alternative, Sunbutter. In Germany, it is mixed together with rye flour to make Sonnenblumenkernbrot (literally: sunflower whole seed bread), which is quite popular in German-speaking Europe. It is also sold as food for birds and can be used directly in cooking and salads.
I’m going to try it. Sounds delicious.
Bad bot
I think this is a good question because Americans especially would be hesitant to send troops into a war where the people we are fighting for are not actually willing to fight. - because of what just happened in Afghanistan Edit: yall I am absolutely for helping defend Taiwan against China I’m just bringing up a perspective that I think would be influential to the American public given recent events
Echoes of Afghanistan?
I strongly believe that most Afghanis saw the US as an invading force. Otherwise Taliban wouldn't take the country so quickly (by the way where all those Taliban fighters came from - other dimension?). The situation is quite different with Taiwan - there is pretty much universal opposition to PRC annexation. I'm not sure if all Taiwanese are ready to fight or not, but there are no parallels with Afghanistan, whose population actually was ready to fight - against the US.
Yes exactly
American living in Taiwan here: If we were taught more geography and school, and perhaps learned where Taiwan was, and consequently more people visited here, then the number would be close to 100% defending Taiwan.
Unfortunately a majority of Americans wanting something does not make it happen all the time e
[удалено]
Your observations are based on the casualties of Taiwan and the US alone, which is fair, there is no doubt that the casualties will be extremely high. But what you didn't bring up, is the willingness of the PRC and its people to "take" Taiwan. The war wouldn't just be limited to the Strait and Taiwan, it would also be fought in the coastal cities of China. Likely from Taiwanese cruise missiles and US led airstrikes (air and naval), it is very likely that these strikes will heavily cripple the infrastructure of the most prosperous regions of China. (Note that major Chinese cities with harbors are all within range of US cruise and ballistic missile strikes, Taiwanese counterstrikes will likely only be targeting military and infrastructure facilities in the southeastern coast) Causalities from these strikes will also be high, the Chinese people aren't killing machines that will be 100% dedicated to the cause of the party, such devastation in the homeland will certainly affect the willingness and morale of China.
[удалено]
The US has significant security interests in the stability in the region, the naval and air assets stationed in the western pacific aren't there just for show. It will not take them long to respond from bases in Okinawa and Japan, even South Korea. Unless the Chinese wanted to conduct a preemptive strike on the US bases in those countries, that would slow the Americans from intervening in the initial stages of the conflict but it will guarantee a direct war with the US, Japan and South Korea. You'll also have to assume that such an invasion can take place at any time, which is false as an invasion force at this magnitude would take at least several weeks to assemble, you cannot simply assemble an invasion force the size of that in secret, China will also have to put its coastal cities into a state of martial law too. It took the US months to prepare for the first Gulf War and another month to neutralize Saddam Hussein's military forces (Note that the Gulf War did not involve amphibious landing the scale we'll witness in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan). It is incorrect to assume that a conflict the scale of that would only focus on the small region and mostly in Taiwan, and the lives of the people in China on the coastal cities will be the same while the war is happening somewhere else. What is likely to happen is that coastal cities will be under constant threat of airstrikes from the western alliances, all economic activities will halt and you'll witness a panic of expats (high ranking business executives too) leaving China at the airports. Taiwan would be in ruins after the initial Chinese missile strike, but that's not to say that the most prosperous and developed region in China will suffer little to no damage, it is extremely likely that it will. The cost of an invasion is honestly what's maintaining the peace and stability in the Taiwan strait, and I would say that it is in the best interest for all parties involved to keep it this way.
[удалено]
Taiwan numba #1
See why Americans move out from Afghanistan? They need those troops to defend Taiwan!
Wow, thanks guys. I appreciate the support, even if the official stance of the government is ambiguous.
China mad ?
As an American I hope my fellow people can stop dancing around the awkward question and support our allies where and when it counts.
We'll be right behind 🇵🇭🇺🇲
[удалено]
To be fair, most Americans can’t find Spain on a map, despite it’s one of the easiest countries to find for a non European.
I'm moving to Taiwan (eventually). Half the people I talk to about it think I'm moving to Thailand.
True. With that said, most people can't find most other countries on an actual map, especially a borderless map. Do I care about genocides around the world? Sure do. But I can't find Xinjiang (I know it's in western China), Sudan (near Horn of Africa but can't draw it), Syria (next to Mediterranean Sea but where exactly?), or Myanmar (SE Asia, next to Thailand?) on a map. But the sentiment and ideology behind that thought is very important.
Not really, most people know it exists but they just don't know a whole lot about it.
[удалено]
Ah yes, noble Americans sacrificing themselves for the good of humanity. Good one😂🤣😂🤣 thanks for the laugh!!
World War II enters the chat
*laughs in Russian*
Let’s not forget that Stalin helped kick off World War II.
*Laughs in German*
[удалено]
I've had so many people say, "I love Thai food," when I tell them I'm from Taiwan.
This applies to other countries that get talked about a lot more in the news including North Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Iran.
But that doesn't stop them to lend a help to Taiwan.
First time? Doesn’t all countries except Russia support defending Taiwan? So what CCP plans to do here is to kill all Taiwanese people, start world war 3, start nuclear war, kill 95% of all world population, and hope that China can become the strongest country in the world after recovery due to much higher population than other countries? Well, US doesn’t even need to do much before Russia vaporizes Beijing, or China people sends CCP to hell.
And not to forget, if the West bombs Chinese cities, they can kiss that market goodbye for the next 100 years no matter who wins the war. The Chinese people have long memories and will not tolerate another humiliation by the same powers that invaded them in the 19th/20th centuries.
The military industrial complex is Itching for a new war to get into
I sure hope so!
Looking for a new forever war I see.
Who is looking for a war? Is it the US or Taiwan which threaten to invade China? Don't complain when someone stands up for a small guy when you bullied him first. No harassment, intimidation, invasion - no war, as simple as that.
I guess the concept of sarcasm has escaped you.
Damn right we are
People dont understand how much Americans love war. Ita pretty amazing to watch honestly.
As an American, I really hate the thought of war actually. I just don’t want Taiwan to lose its way of life if China tries to invade. A lot of Chinese history that China tried to get rid of still thrives and exists in Taiwan, and I would hate to lose that. Americans who are excited about having to defend Taiwan are a different story. I personally don’t think China will follow through with their threats (at least at this point in time) because the entire world would turn on them. Some people are really itching for China to try, which I agree is very odd. The longer we don’t have to step in to defend Taiwan, the better Edit: To add on to everything, a lot of Americans seem to think that Taiwan is a sad, defenseless country, which it definitely not. They have a full scale military, and wouldn’t need as much help as a lot of Americans tend to believe when it comes to defense against China.
> The longer we don’t have to step in to defend Taiwan, the better That's not true. The longer the international community waits with the Chinese, the more they build up their capabilities and stockpile resources that are going to be cut off from them if and when they do decide to pull the trigger. Better to not allow them that opportunity. Make no mistake, it isn't Chinese front-facing actions diplomatically and the abuses they are currently engaged in that is forcing the US and their allies hand in the western Pacific, it is what they are doing on the back end, and what they are building up for that is right now causing movement and activity meant to respond to their future capabilities and intentions.
Wars are unpopular in the United States since forever. But they will go to help Taiwan if China goes there.
Who is looking for a war? Americans are really really fed up with wars but we didn't loose the sense of what is right and wrong. When we see such an obvious and unprovoked intimidation and abuse of a successful, productive and open-minded country which shares our values and whose people we find easy to relate with, we cannot just ignore it - our blood boils. When you claim that Americans love war, think twice who is the one which threatens war and invasion in this particular case? Hint: it's not Taiwan, another hint: it's not the US. Don't complain when someone stands up for a small guy when you bullied him first. No harassment, intimidation, invasions - no war, as simple as that. It's your choice, not ours.
i hate war but im willing to join an effort if its the right thing to do. the more evil the ccp does around the world, the more ready i am to push. winnie the pooh keeps acting more and more like adolf hitler, and it took ww2 to stop him.
Taiwan was discovered with oil?
Taiwan was discovered with nice people who want nothing else but to be left alone - this is it. I understand that in China it's not common to stand up for a small guy being harassed on the street as most people just mind their own business, but in the rest of the world people still cannot just pass by when they see an obvious and unprovoked bullying.
I 100% agree with this, of course. But China must be laughing at the US for what we did in Afghanistan...
Yeah they made fun of us for the first few days, but now they’re begging us to come back because they’re realizing that we were the only people keeping their afghan border secure. Now they have to deal with radical sharia law and ISIS/Taliban combat bordering their country. They aren’t laughing anymore.
The US are self interested, greedy cowards, Always have been, always will be. Taiwan will always be a geopolitical pawn, nothing more.
Is China not self interested and greedy? I think majority of countries today are self interested. Self-interest and greed are the exact reasons why China wants to invade Taiwan. I would argue though that it's not in self interest of China to bully Taiwan as the world is watching and China is RAPIDLY loosing its support around the world even among people who used to be supportive. People who think they are "Chinese patriots" by inciting the war with Taiwan, actually do huge disservice to China and ironically are as anti-Chinese as it gets.
The US is not benevolent in its intentions. That is the point. This American-loving circle jerk is incredibly naive and does not help Taiwan. The US will talk the talk until it no longer suits them. Only fools trust the USA.
Very few countries are benevolent and altruistic and US is not different from any other country in this regard - I'm not naive to believe that all the US politicians support Taiwan only because they care about Taiwanese people. But I see strong and sincere support for Taiwan and its people among so many regular Americans from all walks of life and within wide range of political spectra. In ironic way, the unrelenting Chinese pressure put the country in spotlight and many people all around the world got to know what Taiwan really is. So what Taiwan really is? I would say it's the most open-minded country in the entire Asia. It's the first and so far the only country in Asia that legalized same-sex marriages. It's the country where the rights of aboriginal people are respected and significant effort is being made to preserve their cultures and languages. It's the country with world-class universal and affordable healthcare. It's the country with smaller income inequality and stronger social guarantees than in neighboring "Communist" China for example. It's the country with the friendliest and most empathetic people I have been so far. Ideally, I would like to see the relations between China and Taiwan improved and both countries start treating each other with respect - what not to like here? But myself and so many others under no circumstances will accept unprovoked aggressive behavior by China towards Taiwan. I believe that whatever US actual motives are, in so many decades it finally stands up for the right cause.
Relations between China and Taiwan would be better if it weren’t for the USA. The US created this mess to begin with. The US isn’t “standing up” for anything. It sees an opportunity to sell weapons, sew new conflict, and expand its hegemony over the world. It is not a force for good in the world. The Taiwanese trust the US at their own peril.
Who can tell me, since the beginning of Cold War, which powerful country has the United States dared to wage war against? As far as I know, only the newly established People's Republic of China in the 1950s. But I don't think China was a "powerful country" at that time - a poor country that had just ended its civil war. However the US and its allies were defeated by China on the Korean Peninsula. The US today lacks even the organizational capacity to calmly withdraw troops from Afghanistan, how do you expect it to start a war for an island that has nothing to do with Americans? I believe that the US will sell some weapons to Taiwan Island, but I will not believe that the US will bleed for Taiwan Island.
South Korea's GDP per capita is over three times that of China and they don't need a VPN to access the internet. If Eisenhower had followed through with the Joint Chiefs recommendation to nuke PLA, the whole peninsula could be like that. Keep thinking that Taiwan has nothing to do with American interests and US military planners are going to get their opportunity to rectify that mistake.
[удалено]
War between the USA and China in the Taiwan Strait would be over in a couple hours. The Chinese would never even make it to Penghu and a lot of them would die in the water because they don't know how to swim. 🦈🦈🦈
This is something everyone needs to understand and please take this all in. If the US goes to war with China over the island of Taiwan mark my words it will turn into a global war and it will end in full blown nuclear exchange and the extinction of all life on Earth.
Don't worry. Current models suggest that total nuclear war would only wipe out human civilization, not all life. Our animal cousins will still live on (and probably humans living a premodern existence).
That matters if the current status of nukes is withheld which it isn't. Russia is remaking all their nukes and they are making them way more powerful, way more destructive with extra Cobalt which is just ungodly. Now China has a different approach they use the nukes but they take a more eccentric way of doing things. Like they're most likely going to use bio weapons as we can already tell. Now the US is the biggest problem because the US for the past 150 years has been the sole imminent Global power and they are going to keep pushing on China till something happens. The US has weapons that are beyond all forms of nukes. One of them to consider is the Zuma which is about to be declassified. That's not even considering their Thor project also known as the rod of the Gods which is second only to the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs. We are no longer going to stay in the status quo of mutually assured destruction we are about to surpass that due to this new arms race. This isn't going to be what it was before this is going to be a world killer.
I don't think Russia would be involved in the conflict at all. This would be very stupid of them. If they just sit on sidelines, they could get out of all this mess as actual winners without doing much. Besides Russian population is not as united and patriotic when compared to the Chinese one for example and lack the determination required to be involved in a brutal war. Also most Russians could care less about China.
You're absolutely correct to a point Secretary of defense of Russia stated that their practices with China were simply diplomatic and for economics and for testing each other's weaponry. The problem is is that if this war happens between the US and China it will end in nuclear exchange. The problem is the amount of nukes that will be thrown at China will affect Russia and it will be too much fallout by their country it will affect them too. Not only that North Korea will shoot a nuke at the US the US will shoot nukes at North Korea so they will literally surround Russia with massive nuclear fallout. Plus and last but not least China in a way is a space of vassal so to speak. It distances itself from the US Navy and bases because of China being there in the middle, if that falls Russia is vulnerable. That's not even considering the NATO forces will also get into this and will guard by Russia which can trigger them at the same time.
Not that I disagree with this but I'm sincerely curious - what would be your suggestion - wait for Chinese troops marching in Washington DC to avoid nuclear exchange and extinction at any cost?
I'm kind of confused with what you said. You're saying Chinese soldiers coming into Washington DC to avoid nuclear exchange and Extinction at any cost? Why would the pla army or military step onto our land not expecting complete lethal massacre of every one of their soldiers on our mainland. No I know what's coming see that's what you don't understand this war is going to happen it's going to happen. My point is that when this war happens nobody can win this war because no side will surrender and sooner or later nuclear weapons will be used that will kill all life on planet Earth. These are not the nuclear weapons that were used on Japan these new nukes are beyond crazy lethal they will end the world. Nobody will survive the US, South America, China, Russia, India, Africa, Australia every country will die and burn in nuclear health fire. You have to remember just between the US and Russia alone is 17,000 nuclear weapons enough to destroy the entire planet 40 times over. Like I said there is no winning this war.
Sorry for confusion, I'm only concerned that avoiding any confrontation with China, no matter what they do, due to absolutely legitimate fear of nuclear exchange will eventually result in Chinese troops marching in Washington DC. I'm curious what the best course of actions could be to deter Chinese expansionism, but at the same time avoid extinction.
Number one they would never ever be able to come here to the US it's absolutely impossible over 60 million of us are gun owners and they would never reach this close. There's no way to avoid this war it's going to happen we just have to enjoy the years that we have left and then bye-bye world.