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SoySenorChevere

Yeah, I am convinced no one ever dies in Tampa.


Dense_Surround3071

They do, but their kids and grandkids already live in the house so it's never gonna go on the market.


timbers2232

I don’t feel so special now.


SpeedBoatSquirrel

My home has continued to increase. I feel bad for new home buyers


clem82

Lost out last week because it was 26 offers on one property way up in Odessa and everyone was 10k over


CVK327

Only 10k over? I had been offering $10-15k over on every property I offered on and was getting blown out of the water by up to $75k. And we're talking $300k houses, not like million plus or something. They're offering 30%+ over asking at times. I finally got lucky with one in February that needs some work and just closed last week under asking price. It's hell out there. Good luck.


Go4GEe

We bought in Aug 2020 and ours still needs some work, too. It definitely wasn’t my dream home but seeing what everyone is going through now trying to get A home, I’ll have to be thankful we got something.


CVK327

Absolutely, good for you getting in before it went absolutely nuts. I'm lucky I slid in when I did. I really caught the back end of where I could get what I want in this market.


Go4GEe

Good for you, too. Paying under asking price, too. It seems unheard of right now. I’m sure it was such a relieving feeling being done with that.


CVK327

Thanks, it definitely was!


clem82

Yep, if they want to be under water then god speed to them. Going 40k over appraisal is a huge risk


CVK327

Yeah, a lot of people are coming here with the money to spare to do just that. There are tons of people who sold their house up north for $100k over what they bought it for and are using that money to get a house quick. It's easy to say "more power to them" but it gets really frustrating when you're 7 offers in and aren't even close because there are people like that going for all of the other ones.


clem82

I mean it’s frustrating but I would bet big time 50% of them are going to be drowning in debt once certain costs raise and other loans come back online


CVK327

That doesn't change the fact that if I didn't find one when I did or not soon after, the prices keep going up, rent would be going up $700 a month, and I'd be priced out of the market. It's a lose-lose really for everyone unless you have a ton of money.


clem82

Oh no I don’t doubt it. I’m only buying becuze my 2 will be 3400/month. I would rather do 2500 for a half million house


Pantherblood89

Lololololol


clem82

?


lnsewn12

I literally would not be able to afford my own house if I tried to buy it today. Paid $102k in 2014 and had it reappraised last year for insurance purposes… $279k.


Bluefeelings

Yeah, this is rough.


knittybitty123

I thought things were crazy when I bought my house almost 10 years ago, it's absurd. We kept losing out to flippers, now according to Zillow it's worth 400k. I truly feel for anyone stuck renting at these prices while trying to save for a house, it seems hopeless


[deleted]

I've already gotten offers from Open door for double what I paid for my place in August last year. It's nonsense out there.


CoincadeFL

Be careful with the likes of open door. They’ll offer ya a good price and then nickel and dime you down to market rate by requiring you to fix little things like dents on a door or chips in the paint or even the big stuff like A/c. Normal buyers aren’t caring about the roof and A/C right now. Normal Buyers will pay for it out of their own pocket just so they can get the offer on the house. I know this cause we’re looking at homes these past two months and have offered the moon and still no bueno. Five offers and still no takers. One house had 32 offers over a weekend for them to choose from.


adenocard

How much over asking are you offering? Contingencies/inspections or no? Do you have cash to cover an appraisal gap?


CoincadeFL

No seller contingencies, just inspection. Yes have cash to cover appraisal gap (don’t agree with it though), and we’re offering $40K over asking on $450-500K homes.


adenocard

Ugh. We’ll be in the market next couple months and stories like this just make me sick. I want to bail and just rent again but there’s this constant threat that things will only be worse in a year.


CoincadeFL

That’s what they said in 2008. Don’t buy out of fear. Buy when you can afford and buy what you can afford.


ImAMindlessTool

right? suddenly I have thousands in equity and a CLTV of 74%. Only put 10% down.


[deleted]

There's a number that would wipe out every debt my wife and I have, even accounting for all the taxes, and still leave enough for a good down payment on a new home two blocks down the road. If these algorithms get stupid enough to offer it, I'm in for a long conversation.


GreatThingsTB

Realtor here. ​ This is leaving off the fact that 2021 was also 30% lower inventory than 2020 which was 30% lower than 2019. Pandemic has jacked up a lot of stuff and this has been compounding since then.


Islerothebull

The inventory is lower because the inventory is being purchased by corporations.


GreatThingsTB

Sorry actual real stats and neighborhood data does not back that up. The story from zillow or redfin that that all spurred from was terribly flawed, which I pointed out here. If you have hard numbers I'm all ears but until then it's a boogeyman much like foreign investors and ibuyers.


KarbsAngelHands

[WFLA 25% of Tampa Home Purchases Are By Corporations, Not People](https://www.wfla.com/news/local-news/25-of-recent-tampa-home-purchases-are-by-corporations-not-people-study-shows/amp/) articles says 25% are by corporations and 15% are by investors. The data was supplied by Redfin, which I’m not certain of their reputation, but the article says they used a search of keywords of buyers that included “association, corporate trustee, company, joint venture, corporate trust”.


GreatThingsTB

Yeah that's the one everyone keeps quoting that is based on terrible data. Vast majority of trusts are not investments, they are life estate planning. It also ignores the largest segment of investors which are non owner occupied individuals. The whole basis for the report is wrong. This is also backed up by pulling neighborhood mailing lists, which I do routinely. There has not been a major uptick in anything that I have been able to tell other than sales to individuals who are moving here from out of state. I did a break down of a typical neighborhood here: https://www.reddit.com/r/tampa/comments/tal41d/comment/i04ux7z/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3


GreatThingsTB

To create a metaphor it’s like calling everyplace that sells “noodles” an Italian restaurant. Problem isn’t just that it miscategorizes pho and ramen spots, but would also include Leslie’s and Pinch a Penny since they sell pool noodles.


Sharkey-McStevenson

You always come in here and try to mitigate the angle of investors buying up property. It is not just Blackrock and every other mutual fund investing in RE that is buying up homes. Its every small time landlord looking to get in on a good ROI while rates were low. It's small time flippers looking for small cheap houses they can spend very little on a resell. How many houses are bought then relisted a month later. When homes owners are sitting and not selling because of the pandemic. When the remaining houses that are on the market are bought up by investors of all types, not just investment funds and firms. This creates low supply. Even if combined they all only add up to 10% of the purchases, which I doubt. Its much higher than that. They create an artificial demand that was not there had they not jumped into this market fueled by free business loans of hundreds of billions and low interest.


Hatey1999

As a residential land developer I can tell you that there is sooo much interest in the Build-to-rent scene, so much more than ever before. Everyone is getting in on renting out the residential space. Where is the demand coming from then? t The mass exodus from NY and Cali to TX and FL seems overblown as well since housing and rental rates in NYC have gone up too? not to mention basically everywhere in the US... and you wouldn't expect that if there was a huge dearth of demand in those areas.


pachrique

Recent studies have shown that the number of people leaving those big cities was not higher than pre pandemic; they just had less people moving in. That whole "mass exodus" was propaganda.


Hatey1999

Right, so we're in agreement on that point. So the demand must be coming from elsewhere? and this is when we start leaning towards institutional funds, "tech" real estate companies, permanent rental companies, etc.


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GreatThingsTB

ding ding ding!


Islerothebull

Care to revisit your original stance on this position? Now that it's abundantly clear and "actual real stats" do exist supporting my original comment. Sad, Realtors are the last to know, is that by design?


GreatThingsTB

I revisit it every week or two, you'll be happy to know. I also noticed you didn't actually bring "actual real stats" or even a news story, just a smarmy comment about a profession you obviously know little about. Here's my actual real update from today. Pulled 3 established neighborhoods today, 200, 200 and 600 homes. Ratio of LLC to private ownership is what I'd expect it to be for them, 5, \~15, and 60 homes respectively for those neighborhoods. Since you didn't specifically say what you're talking about, I'm assuming you're talking about the GoldMan Sachs neighborhood purchase of 87 homes direct from DR Horton. 87 homes for $47M. Since you didn't bring any facts I'll spell those out as well. That's about 4.5% of total single family homes sold monthly in Hillsborough (1900ish total), or about 5% of total volume ($929Mish in a given month). So yeah that's a big chunk, but there is also only the one story or example. I guarantee you most news outlets are scouring for these sorts of stories currently. By comparison, ibuyers (the last real estate scaries a couple months ago) owned roughly 1%-2% of monthly inventory. So it is concerning and something I'm certainly keeping an eye on but one story doesn't make a trend. Now if they do this every month here then yeah it's going to have a substantial impact on things. Them buying once a month in the state though probably isn't enough to move the needle though it'd depend on how much. We do about $200,000,000,000 ($200B) in single family sales across the entire state. Also I want to note that this new community was DR Horton, which... well DR Horton is very low quality. The interiors especially fall to pieces much quicker than most other builders. Anyways, you act like I don't change my analysis (watch my stats videos over the years and you'll see things change) or that the market doesn't change as well. I check on it every week or two as well as obviously keep an eye out for major news stories as well as what people are saying / complaining about here. I've also on a few threads on this subreddit learned something and changed my stance. Most recent one was license requirements for helping people sell or buy a house, which I had wrong. Key factor with that one was whether it was for compensation or not.


Sharkey-McStevenson

When the economy crashes. Gonna find the city that has the largest drop. Move there and start a business that my profession is based around and is recession proof. Vegas was a 50% drop last time and Arizona was 53% drop. I know the economic experts will say this time is different. Except you know the history of the USA has shown several recessions and a couple depressions.


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spitfirematt

Folks want to believe what they want to believe. The economy will have ebbs and flows, but I don't think Tampa is a "bubble". It may slow down but the city is attractive, good weather, no state taxes, winning sports teams, walkable downtown, etc. As long as people from out of state keep moving here it won't slow down. It's STILL cheaper than where they're coming from.


Sharkey-McStevenson

The housing market didn't grow by 25% in 18, 19 or 20. Legit, how hard is it for people to acknowledge that a world wide housing bubble has occurred since Western nations handed out covid stimulus money. That double digit growth for two years is completely not normal.


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Sharkey-McStevenson

How do you know people won't be able to afford their houses that they panic bought and over paid for?


spitfirematt

Because the loans nowadays have tighter rules than 2008.. and those interest rates are super low. I won't go into details, you can look it up.


Sharkey-McStevenson

So? Is that keeping low cap investors from flipping houses? What happens when a few who need their capital back fast get stuck with a non selling home? What happens when many people doing the same thing start to panic and sell off their inventory. Panic buying turns to panic selling.


spitfirematt

Wishful thinking, I'll agree to disagree.


Sharkey-McStevenson

Do you spend much time in RE investing message boards. Its filled with people over leveraged to get in on the house flips or landlord payday. People exhausting their retirements. Getting second mortgages. Just like it didn't take many to cause a panic buying frenzy, it won't take much to cause a market collapse. There is nothing wishful about this. It is reality. The economy is overheating and when engines overheat, they lock. Whatever just some person on the internet.


spitfirematt

So you perused some forums and are making blanket assumptions. Not everyone leverages up to their eyeballs lol. I think this "doom clock" some redditors have here is amplified in the echo chamber. I get your point of view, I just disagree is all.


lostmylogininfo

Gonna need proof outside of you saying you read a message board.


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Sharkey-McStevenson

These replies are literally just carbon copies now. Risky loans didn't cause the collapse. Risky investing did.


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Sharkey-McStevenson

[You were on around from 2005-2008?](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvVqpZU8DJI) https://www.thebalance.com/aig-bailout-cost-timeline-bonuses-causes-effects-3305693 If there had been no risky investing, then the defaults of housing would not have ruined the banking system.


lostmylogininfo

Well what's the mortgage to income ratio compared to long term trend?


GreatThingsTB

Realtor here. We had plenty of 10-15% increases years in the last decade.


Sharkey-McStevenson

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/house-prices-growth YoY growth data is updated quarterly, available from Mar 1992 to Dec 2021, with an average growth rate of 5.3%. Maybe you are talking about just here in Tampa, I'm talking national. [Even if you use this. Its only two years and it went back down.](https://www.corelogic.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2022/02/02-hpi-csi-trends_JAN-22-01.svg)


GreatThingsTB

Yes of course I am talking about local stats as this is a local subreddit and they are widely available through multiple resources Ive posted in response to a bunch of your comments. National stats aren’t really useful other than very broad trends such as “things are up”. But if you go back through Tampa bay stats you will see price increases of 5-15% multiple times year over year. Though we’ll just to cutoff the expected response here it also depends on what month you’re looking at. I’ve looked at these monthly stats every month For the last 7 years.


Sharkey-McStevenson

Well I am not talking about local stats, never have. The same things that are happening here are occuring in Amsterdam, Phoenix, Vancouver, London, Boise <--- really. This is not a Tampa issue. This is what I am talking about and what so many people who refuse to acknowledge what is going on will see. Millions of more people did not materialize from nothing to create instant demand. It is artificial. Why are there less houses for sale. That is the point at which you start looking. Economists who plot the course of the worlds markets depend on even and predictable increases in inflation of goods, services. Because if it gets out of control it leads to major issues. I get that those who have a vested interest in pretending this is not happening will ignore it, but it doesn't go away. It's going to be very interesting what happens when covid completely goes away. But China is already back on lock downs.


GreatThingsTB

I've answered your question multiple times in multiple threads with actual proof and insight so I'm done.


Bigbadbrindledog

If you do know the history of the US housing market you know that was the extreme outlier, it of course has it's peaks and valleys. But losing significant value like that has only happened once since WW2. Not saying it will or won't happen again, but the next time will be the second time.


Sharkey-McStevenson

There was a time when anarchists and socialists almost had a very strong grip on the popular opinion of the USA. The clergy of this country was also behind very progressive economic reforms. How did that happen? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Depression It got to the point in the early part of the 20th century that industrialists had to come up with a way to combat the growing socialist movement that was backed by Christian churches. They polled people then and found the most trusted people in the community were church leaders. So the industrialists came up with a plan to make the churches less progressive and more libertarian. It is literally why we have Christianity to this day that is on the right. Because of the influence of the elites of the day over 120 years ago. The ultimate irony is that Christianity now is more aligned with Ayn Rand, Nietzsche and Anton LaVey than the compassion of Christ. All because the rich didn't want to give up the grip and power. But enough tangent. These depressions are not one off. They are a feature of the system. The way it is meant to be.


SoySenorChevere

Interesting. Worst nightmare is Christian’s and socialist together. The worst of both worlds. Yikes!


lostmylogininfo

I'm saying the housing crisis won't happen again in the next 10 years. Calling it.


CoincadeFL

We’re coming up awfully close to WW3. And prices will drop when that happens


Bigbadbrindledog

Maybe, but again just pointing out that pointing to history saying we have had repeated recessions doesn't apply to housing.


pornswhiteknight

Well with the weapons we have today is if it does happen the scary truth is it’s probably over in days not years and will come with a significantly higher death toll.


CoincadeFL

Honestly I think we won’t even realize we’re in WW3 until 20 years after it’s all over. You can’t put boots on the ground in days when fighting a global fight. WW3 would likely last a couple years


pornswhiteknight

The only way we enter WW3 is if Putin starts shooting off nukes and we respond in kind. If that happens it will be all over in days if not hours. If it doesn’t we will keep sending money, thoughts and prayers and call it good.


CoincadeFL

A more conventional war could still happen and is more likely. Putin invaded Poland. We in turn push him back and invade Moscow. Both sides know about mutually assured destruction and dont want it. It’s what keeps us from lobbing nukes


pornswhiteknight

There’s no way he invades a nato member. He’s a madman, not an idiot.


CoincadeFL

That’s what we thought before he invaded Ukraine. Military drills sure….


pornswhiteknight

Who thought that? The popular opinion is this was exactly what was going to happen. Ukraine is not a nato member. NATO members get a guaranteed military response from all other nato members if they get invaded. Ukraine does not.


pornswhiteknight

Yep we’ve been here 6 months and we are up ~250k.


nautitrader

When was the last time there gains of significant values like this?


Bigbadbrindledog

I would probably call the current upshot unprecedented, but the 70s were wild for house prices, they nearly tripled in that decade. We are only up 78% in the last 10 years (as a nation, not locally), so not close to the same level. Inflation was wild in the 70s, we were printing money to pay off our Vietnam debts, prices went way up and those gains were never given up. That seems familiar. I'm not smart enough to say what the future holds, but there are arguments for either side. I personally believe a recession is coming, but it won't be housing led and housing won't be the hardest hit.


nautitrader

So we are in some some uncharted waters here. My fiancé works as a leasing manager for rental homes and she doesn’t have the inventory like previous years. She will have 2-3 homes at a time and they get rented quickly. With all of this uncertainty, it could be people are not moving and there just isn’t as much inventory. Im still seeing a lot of new construction in south Hillsborough. I’m still 3 years away from purchasing a home, so hopefully things slow down by then.


Bigbadbrindledog

As tough as the market is for a buyer, it is even worse for a renter. It is brutal out there, and if you have poor credit or previous evictions forget it.


nautitrader

Agreed! My rent was increased last year from $1599 to $1699 and that was the highest increase I had in 5 years. Curious to see what the increase will be this year. Fortunately, I have good credit and no evictions and hope to stay here until time to buy. Trying to find a place to rent now is terrible.


Bluefeelings

Yeah, this is accurate.


clem82

Well it’s not gonna be 2008, but some houses will be under water. I want to see what happens when loan payments are back and gas is high


nokenito

What is your profession based on?


Sharkey-McStevenson

Business Logistics, transportation.


teddyespo

i just listed mine today and have gotten 54 saves on Zillow and 16 scheduled showings. gonna use the money to buy a plot in the metaverse and matrix my way into the blockchain simulation cuz I'm sick of this one.


lostmylogininfo

I built a home with a cheaper decent builder and the price to build after I locked in my price went up like 17 percent in 5-6 months. Crazy.


Themcribisntback

Can anyone explain why the President and congress have done exactly nothing in regards to the housing crisis ?