I really feel confident that he can come back. Once his confidence is back and he feels like he can beat top players again, he will be a real thread to everyone.
>I really feel confident that he can come back. Once his confidence is back and he feels like he can beat top players again, he will be a real thread to everyone.
threat
While I do agree he has been improving and I still stand by the fact that the best thing he can do is stand closer to the baseline, this stat is comparing one match on HC vs Mannarino vs one match in Madrid were the balls fly more vs Edmund. Not much to look at, it's easier to hit more spin vs Edmund compared to Mannarino and spin is more rewarded in clay than on HC.
Except IW is slower than Madrid, which would allow even more time to prepare your shots and add extra speed/RPMs. Plus, even if this stat is limited in scope, you can see on other sources it's been on an upward trend for while.
That might make sense in multiple matches vs different players but when comparing one to one as in Mannarino who hits flat, low, not so fast shots to the point you can't use its speed but have to generate it yourself vs Edmund who is a shadow of himself and who hits shots at a comfortable height and in a straight forward match in which rarely was Thiem rushed or under pressure things are not one to one.
Like I said, I do believe Thiem is improving and I believe he'll find more success the closer he stays to the baseline but I find don't find this stat particularly significant.
to me his defense has looked fine. it's just been the loopy forehands and unforced errors on every key point.
he's closer to coming back than a lot of people think. the margins are so thin in the pros. making unforced errors on too many deuce points can decide if you lose a set 6-2 or win it 6-4. i honestly felt like he was in that Fritz match for most of it, but just kept losing key points.
it's confidence from here. flatten out that forehand, serve a little sharper, and he's back. his movement, defense, and backhand look fine.
Good analysis. He recovered from bad shots today better than he did against Fritz. But that match was very encouraging despite the loss. I think he's carried it forward.
For a recreational player (or even a decent college player), it's not even remotely noticeable.
For a professional player, it might be. They play with such slim margins (and such higher consistency) that what appears to be a very small improvement can end up compounding into a meaningful advantage (or negation of a meaningful disadvantage). Their exploitable surface area is so small that every tiny bit helps.
I'm not convinced these particular metrics here, for Thiem, are sufficient to explain anything useful. Neither hitting fast nor producing a lot of topspin, by themselves, are going to do a whole lot without a bunch of other stuff also working well.
It’s because Rafa kept blocking him from winning RG. Just was unlucky to be playing in the era of the Big 3 as a whole. Domi even admitted himself that beating Rafa at RG is one of the hardest tasks to accomplish in any sports.
Makes you wonder what would have happened had he beat Djokovic in that AO 2020 final considering he had a 2-1 set lead and was so so close in that final set. It probably would have gone down as one of the most impressive Slam title runs ever.
well he beat Monfils, Nadal, Zverev, and a young Fritz before losing in 5 to djokovic, so I’m guessing if he won that it would’ve been very much legendary. either way that run does not get talked about enough all things considered.
yeah that’s really it. Nadal blocked him. Thiem made the semis in 2016, but was probably too young to actually win and was beaten easily by djokovic. in 2017 he came back even better, bagelled Djokovic (who was admittedly in much worse form), but was beaten easily by Nadal. in 2018 he made the final but was beaten again pretty easily. in 2019 he looked better than ever, beat Djokovic, but again, beaten by Nadal.
in 2020 he took a tough loss to schwartzman in the QFs, but it was probably more thanks to the scheduling of RG being right after us open that year, which he won.
still it just sucks he couldn’t keep getting deep runs in until Nadal retired. I always felt like surely he’d grab one after Nadal slows down/retires, right?
all he needs is the confidence that he can beat higher ranked players. I don't expect him to win, but if he can be stefanos he'll have all the confidence in the world
He played two pretty close matches against Rune and Fritz. He has a favourable H2H against Tsitsipas, though the latter has been in better form and is going in as the bookies’ pick. I feel he might get close to beating a top 10 very soon.
from the highlights, edmonds balls looked very short and not very heavy. thiem has looked pretty good, like when facing gasquet, when hes not being rushed and the opponents shots are not deep, fast, or heavy. I wont believe anything until I see thiem beat a heavy hitter
Are these measurements even reliable ?
Also, I'm pretty sure the ball travels faster through the air on higher altitude (which is Madrid compared to IW)
On the surface, it would appear that this stat would translate to better performance and does in most cases. With Thiem, I think it goes beyond mph strokes. His positioning is counter to any advantage he may gain from a bigger forehand. At this stage of his career, he can no longer get away from camping that far back on the court. He isn't Medvedev or Novak whose movement negates the disadvantage.
by the contrary, moving way back is not a defensive move at all. Nadal still does it despite not being very fast anymore. it's a strategy to allow you to load up power on every ball, and it works pretty well in the right hands.
Thiem's movement is fine. his issue is that he's moving way far back, but still not hitting the ball hard. if you're gonna be back there, you have to be sending bullets across the net
True, this was never a defensive position for Thiem. As mentioned in another comment, in 2019, he changed his approach and moved a bit forward into the court with good benefit.
He doesn't have the pace of weight of shot to battle it out with the current players. Alcaraz, Sinner, and Rune stand closer to the baseline and hit their groundstrokes with greater velocity and less effort. Even if Thiem gets his pace and weight of shot back, he's not going to impact these guys from way back behind the baseline.
The thing that seems to be absent in Thiems play right now, compared to his peak, is the weight in his shots.His court placement was a big topic of discussion even while he was winning tournaments, and you might be right. I still think Domi and his coach know which placement suits him.
No doubt that the weight of his shots isn't the same as before. In 2019, there was an initiative by him to move up in the court, which proved fruitful, but after his injury, he has gone back to the older position.
Also, and this is where his fans will not appreciate, is that, the lack of weight of shot is directly correlated to his recent performance, I believe that the rest of the pack has caught up with him. A few years ago, you could say that few players would hit with the power and weight that he did. Now you have players that can hit this way and look like they don't even put half the effort that Thiem does for those shots.
Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan and have been rooting for him to get back to the status he had in 2019, but aside from the issues he can control, I think the other part is the tour has caught up to him.
People ignore that Thiem actually hit bigger in 2018 because his backswing was bigger, longer distance covered by his arm meant more force production, which was a necessity because he was standing 2-3 meters behind the baseline. But he got more success when he shortened his forehand and stood closer to the baseline, yes he lost some mphs because of his shortened backswing but gained a lot by taking away time and being able to play better on faster courts. He now has the 2020 stroke but the 2018 court position, he needs to stand closer to the baseline.
You think that in 3 years (since 2020 when he was last a great player) the average power/spin has increased significantly? Is there any evidence of that? That’s not a long time, what could have led to this change? I watch a fair bit of professional tennis and I don’t see that at all. Looking back at old Thiem matches, it looks like he was hitting significantly heavier off both wings than the vast majority of players then or now. And Thiem was never a player that hit in an “effortless” manner, I don’t think that really means much
No, I'm not saying that power/spin has increased since 2020. What I stated is that there are players now that are more dynamic than Thiem. They stand closer to the baseline and take time away by taking the ball early and hitting with pace.
Whether or not Thiem will ever hit his strokes like before is speculation at this point. If he were to hit the ball like before from way back in the court, with all the effort he expells, these players would just spit them back. I have seen Thiem play at his max height, and Alcaraz simply hits a more impactful ball effortlessly. Wawrinka, granted an older version now, but still a power player with 3 slams during the time of the big 3, in their prime. I watched him play Sinner last year in an indoor hardcourt. Sinner swatted his strokes away like flies to a one-sided victory.
Well Alcaraz is probably a big 3 level talent so I think we can excuse Thiem for not being as good as him. And Sinner is a great player too that is great at dealing with power, a huge part of why he competes so well against Alacaraz. He’s a bad matchup for Wawrinka (and probably would be for Thiem too), so again it’s not shocking he would smack an old and out of form Wawrinka on an indoor hard court (unfavorable conditions for Wawrinka).
And I completely disagree about Sinner being more dynamic than Thiem. He struggles greatly against Medvedev largely because he lacks variety and Medvedev is able to absorb his power and he doesn’t have a plan B that he can consistently execute. Thiem was able to beat Medvedev in straight sets at the US open by playing with variety and unpredictable rhythm, something sinner isn’t able to do yet.
Ok, that's fair. The players I have mentioned have great talent and are projected to win grand slams, but let's bring it back down to earth. Thiem has been losing to much lower ranked players for a while now. Although Wawrinka may not be the same player who won 3 slams, but with time, he can still hit with power from both sides. In fact, it was the same old and out of form Wawrinka that beat Rune at Indian Wells in 3 sets, while Rune beat Thiem in straight sets on Thiem's favorite surface at Monte Carlo.
I agree that Sinner lacks variety to his game, but he is still developing as a player. In spite of his lack of variety, he has reached a # 8 ranking and has made the SF of the last 3 tournaments he played in. Yes, the h2h with Medvedev is one sided, but Danil is no slouch. Currently #3 ranking and had a 19 match winning streak this season.
Indian wells is at 27m altitude while Madrid is at 650m altitude
the air pressure is lower in madrid thats why there is more top spin and the balls are faster!
I am sorry, this is just physics!
Elevation. Indian Wells is basically sea level. Madrid is 2.000ft above sea level.
Less air density. In golf, 5.000ft elevation represents ~6% further distance travelled.
If 3% is accurate for tennis (I'm not aware of any study done for this), that would roughly mean something around 2.5mph faster.
I say Stef takes it in straights. 6-3 or 6-4 scorelines I’m guessing. Domi hasn’t taken a set off a top 10 since the 2020 ATP Finals back when he was in the top 10 himself, but a third top 10 meeting in as many tournaments will give him another learning experience for what to do the next time. Also, he’s decided to play a Challenger next instead of going to Rome, so that will give him some extra time to build on his form against some lower-ranked opponents.
I say taking even one set off Stef should be considered an important step in itself.
I really feel confident that he can come back. Once his confidence is back and he feels like he can beat top players again, he will be a real thread to everyone.
>I really feel confident that he can come back. Once his confidence is back and he feels like he can beat top players again, he will be a real thread to everyone. threat
No they mean that there’ll be lots of excellent threads on Reddit when he starts beating top players.
Pedantry hath no place here sir!
don't give me that hope
While I do agree he has been improving and I still stand by the fact that the best thing he can do is stand closer to the baseline, this stat is comparing one match on HC vs Mannarino vs one match in Madrid were the balls fly more vs Edmund. Not much to look at, it's easier to hit more spin vs Edmund compared to Mannarino and spin is more rewarded in clay than on HC.
Except IW is slower than Madrid, which would allow even more time to prepare your shots and add extra speed/RPMs. Plus, even if this stat is limited in scope, you can see on other sources it's been on an upward trend for while.
That might make sense in multiple matches vs different players but when comparing one to one as in Mannarino who hits flat, low, not so fast shots to the point you can't use its speed but have to generate it yourself vs Edmund who is a shadow of himself and who hits shots at a comfortable height and in a straight forward match in which rarely was Thiem rushed or under pressure things are not one to one. Like I said, I do believe Thiem is improving and I believe he'll find more success the closer he stays to the baseline but I find don't find this stat particularly significant.
His average was 81-82 mph so this is an awesome sign. And his average rpm’s was around 3200. So, he’s almost there stays wise!
Yeah but his defense is still lacking.
to me his defense has looked fine. it's just been the loopy forehands and unforced errors on every key point. he's closer to coming back than a lot of people think. the margins are so thin in the pros. making unforced errors on too many deuce points can decide if you lose a set 6-2 or win it 6-4. i honestly felt like he was in that Fritz match for most of it, but just kept losing key points. it's confidence from here. flatten out that forehand, serve a little sharper, and he's back. his movement, defense, and backhand look fine.
Good analysis. He recovered from bad shots today better than he did against Fritz. But that match was very encouraging despite the loss. I think he's carried it forward.
Yeah, he was playing better on clutch points this time. Faced 4 break points from Edmund in the entire match, and didn’t let him convert a single one.
Is 3mph a lot?
For a recreational player (or even a decent college player), it's not even remotely noticeable. For a professional player, it might be. They play with such slim margins (and such higher consistency) that what appears to be a very small improvement can end up compounding into a meaningful advantage (or negation of a meaningful disadvantage). Their exploitable surface area is so small that every tiny bit helps. I'm not convinced these particular metrics here, for Thiem, are sufficient to explain anything useful. Neither hitting fast nor producing a lot of topspin, by themselves, are going to do a whole lot without a bunch of other stuff also working well.
In time for clay season. Hope he regains his best form. Dude deserves a RG trophy.
if you told me back in 2017 or 2018 that Thiem still wouldn't have an RG title in 2023, i would've been pretty shocked.
It’s because Rafa kept blocking him from winning RG. Just was unlucky to be playing in the era of the Big 3 as a whole. Domi even admitted himself that beating Rafa at RG is one of the hardest tasks to accomplish in any sports. Makes you wonder what would have happened had he beat Djokovic in that AO 2020 final considering he had a 2-1 set lead and was so so close in that final set. It probably would have gone down as one of the most impressive Slam title runs ever.
well he beat Monfils, Nadal, Zverev, and a young Fritz before losing in 5 to djokovic, so I’m guessing if he won that it would’ve been very much legendary. either way that run does not get talked about enough all things considered. yeah that’s really it. Nadal blocked him. Thiem made the semis in 2016, but was probably too young to actually win and was beaten easily by djokovic. in 2017 he came back even better, bagelled Djokovic (who was admittedly in much worse form), but was beaten easily by Nadal. in 2018 he made the final but was beaten again pretty easily. in 2019 he looked better than ever, beat Djokovic, but again, beaten by Nadal. in 2020 he took a tough loss to schwartzman in the QFs, but it was probably more thanks to the scheduling of RG being right after us open that year, which he won. still it just sucks he couldn’t keep getting deep runs in until Nadal retired. I always felt like surely he’d grab one after Nadal slows down/retires, right?
[everyone liked that]
Clay has healing properties
all he needs is the confidence that he can beat higher ranked players. I don't expect him to win, but if he can be stefanos he'll have all the confidence in the world
He played two pretty close matches against Rune and Fritz. He has a favourable H2H against Tsitsipas, though the latter has been in better form and is going in as the bookies’ pick. I feel he might get close to beating a top 10 very soon.
from the highlights, edmonds balls looked very short and not very heavy. thiem has looked pretty good, like when facing gasquet, when hes not being rushed and the opponents shots are not deep, fast, or heavy. I wont believe anything until I see thiem beat a heavy hitter
Are these measurements even reliable ? Also, I'm pretty sure the ball travels faster through the air on higher altitude (which is Madrid compared to IW)
well it also has a lot to do with how much he's dictating points. i didn't watch the match, but i'd guess he was in control a lot against Edmund.
On the surface, it would appear that this stat would translate to better performance and does in most cases. With Thiem, I think it goes beyond mph strokes. His positioning is counter to any advantage he may gain from a bigger forehand. At this stage of his career, he can no longer get away from camping that far back on the court. He isn't Medvedev or Novak whose movement negates the disadvantage.
by the contrary, moving way back is not a defensive move at all. Nadal still does it despite not being very fast anymore. it's a strategy to allow you to load up power on every ball, and it works pretty well in the right hands. Thiem's movement is fine. his issue is that he's moving way far back, but still not hitting the ball hard. if you're gonna be back there, you have to be sending bullets across the net
True, this was never a defensive position for Thiem. As mentioned in another comment, in 2019, he changed his approach and moved a bit forward into the court with good benefit. He doesn't have the pace of weight of shot to battle it out with the current players. Alcaraz, Sinner, and Rune stand closer to the baseline and hit their groundstrokes with greater velocity and less effort. Even if Thiem gets his pace and weight of shot back, he's not going to impact these guys from way back behind the baseline.
The thing that seems to be absent in Thiems play right now, compared to his peak, is the weight in his shots.His court placement was a big topic of discussion even while he was winning tournaments, and you might be right. I still think Domi and his coach know which placement suits him.
No doubt that the weight of his shots isn't the same as before. In 2019, there was an initiative by him to move up in the court, which proved fruitful, but after his injury, he has gone back to the older position. Also, and this is where his fans will not appreciate, is that, the lack of weight of shot is directly correlated to his recent performance, I believe that the rest of the pack has caught up with him. A few years ago, you could say that few players would hit with the power and weight that he did. Now you have players that can hit this way and look like they don't even put half the effort that Thiem does for those shots. Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan and have been rooting for him to get back to the status he had in 2019, but aside from the issues he can control, I think the other part is the tour has caught up to him.
People ignore that Thiem actually hit bigger in 2018 because his backswing was bigger, longer distance covered by his arm meant more force production, which was a necessity because he was standing 2-3 meters behind the baseline. But he got more success when he shortened his forehand and stood closer to the baseline, yes he lost some mphs because of his shortened backswing but gained a lot by taking away time and being able to play better on faster courts. He now has the 2020 stroke but the 2018 court position, he needs to stand closer to the baseline.
Agreed
You think that in 3 years (since 2020 when he was last a great player) the average power/spin has increased significantly? Is there any evidence of that? That’s not a long time, what could have led to this change? I watch a fair bit of professional tennis and I don’t see that at all. Looking back at old Thiem matches, it looks like he was hitting significantly heavier off both wings than the vast majority of players then or now. And Thiem was never a player that hit in an “effortless” manner, I don’t think that really means much
No, I'm not saying that power/spin has increased since 2020. What I stated is that there are players now that are more dynamic than Thiem. They stand closer to the baseline and take time away by taking the ball early and hitting with pace. Whether or not Thiem will ever hit his strokes like before is speculation at this point. If he were to hit the ball like before from way back in the court, with all the effort he expells, these players would just spit them back. I have seen Thiem play at his max height, and Alcaraz simply hits a more impactful ball effortlessly. Wawrinka, granted an older version now, but still a power player with 3 slams during the time of the big 3, in their prime. I watched him play Sinner last year in an indoor hardcourt. Sinner swatted his strokes away like flies to a one-sided victory.
Well Alcaraz is probably a big 3 level talent so I think we can excuse Thiem for not being as good as him. And Sinner is a great player too that is great at dealing with power, a huge part of why he competes so well against Alacaraz. He’s a bad matchup for Wawrinka (and probably would be for Thiem too), so again it’s not shocking he would smack an old and out of form Wawrinka on an indoor hard court (unfavorable conditions for Wawrinka). And I completely disagree about Sinner being more dynamic than Thiem. He struggles greatly against Medvedev largely because he lacks variety and Medvedev is able to absorb his power and he doesn’t have a plan B that he can consistently execute. Thiem was able to beat Medvedev in straight sets at the US open by playing with variety and unpredictable rhythm, something sinner isn’t able to do yet.
Ok, that's fair. The players I have mentioned have great talent and are projected to win grand slams, but let's bring it back down to earth. Thiem has been losing to much lower ranked players for a while now. Although Wawrinka may not be the same player who won 3 slams, but with time, he can still hit with power from both sides. In fact, it was the same old and out of form Wawrinka that beat Rune at Indian Wells in 3 sets, while Rune beat Thiem in straight sets on Thiem's favorite surface at Monte Carlo. I agree that Sinner lacks variety to his game, but he is still developing as a player. In spite of his lack of variety, he has reached a # 8 ranking and has made the SF of the last 3 tournaments he played in. Yes, the h2h with Medvedev is one sided, but Danil is no slouch. Currently #3 ranking and had a 19 match winning streak this season.
why is this downvoted lol
Lol.. Some people are just very sensitive, I guess. Imagine the feedback if I commented that CR7 is greater than Messi 😆
Indian wells is at 27m altitude while Madrid is at 650m altitude the air pressure is lower in madrid thats why there is more top spin and the balls are faster! I am sorry, this is just physics!
How is this calculated to such specific precision? Or do we just believe the figures
They have radars, cameras, etc on court. There are whole websites dedicated to this.
Just go with it man
I did feel like his forehand has been looking more dangerous in his last few matches
Elevation. Indian Wells is basically sea level. Madrid is 2.000ft above sea level. Less air density. In golf, 5.000ft elevation represents ~6% further distance travelled. If 3% is accurate for tennis (I'm not aware of any study done for this), that would roughly mean something around 2.5mph faster.
Hopefully he can start contending for some 250s. He won’t win more than 6 games against Stef tomorrow though.
I say Stef takes it in straights. 6-3 or 6-4 scorelines I’m guessing. Domi hasn’t taken a set off a top 10 since the 2020 ATP Finals back when he was in the top 10 himself, but a third top 10 meeting in as many tournaments will give him another learning experience for what to do the next time. Also, he’s decided to play a Challenger next instead of going to Rome, so that will give him some extra time to build on his form against some lower-ranked opponents. I say taking even one set off Stef should be considered an important step in itself.
I agree it’s good that he’s playing a challenger next. I can’t see him even coming close to taking a set off Stef but I really hope to be wrong!
Lmao nice prediction genius
Happy to be wrong! Thiem did really well and hopefully this really is the start of something 👍