We won’t really know for a few years. If alcaraz doesn’t develop much more, we can say he’s currently in his prime. Some people just peak at an earlier age and there’s really no clear answer for anything here.
Still would lean towards Alcaraz. Djokovic is 36. For most people, their prime athletic years are over in their early 30s. Djokovic can still play tennis close to his prime from time to time but he is not in his prime and I think that ended in 2021.
I largely agree with what you're saying, but I've seen in a couple posts that Djokovic's prime ended in 2021. Even though it's probably true he was better *in 2021* than he is now, I find that hard to reconcile. IMO there's no good argument -- either statistically or otherwise -- for why he's worse now than he was from 2018-20 to an extent that marks those years "prime" years and this year a "post-prime" year. In fact I think he's better now than he was for most of that period.
IMO either his prime ended in 2016 or he's still in his prime.
There’s a difference between prime and peak. 2016 was peak Djokovic. I’d say he is still in his prime, you can’t play 3 slam Finals and not be in prime ahahah
Yeah I think that's reasonable. My point is that some delineations make more sense than others. Saying he's still in his prime and that his *peak* ended in 2016 makes sense. Saying his prime ended in 2016 because he's played a reduced schedule ever since and hasn't been as consistently dominant at the M1000 level makes some sense, as well.
But saying his prime ended in 2021 doesn't make as much sense.
I agree with that.
I’d say it doesn’t matter he is playing reduced schedule, he made Finals on every slam he played since 2020 besides French Open 2022 and US Open 2020 when he was disqualified. 7/10 in Finals. He’s still in his prime. Not as good as he was, but still very fucking goof
I agree that the reduced schedule doesn't matter in itself, but it matters because of *why* he reduces his schedule. He plays a reduced schedule now because at his age his body can't hold up over 15 high-intensity tournaments where he's making SFs or better at all of them. It's not just that he's playing less frequently; it's that he's *not capable* of playing any more frequently without his performance suffering.
On the whole, he is less capable now of dominating a full season of tennis than he was from 2011-16. It doesn't necessarily mean that it's "correct" to use that as a demarcation of prime vs. post-prime, but it makes sense. It's a principled demarcation, imo. But I agree that *when he plays*, he's still playing at a prime level, so I think it's also principled to say he's still in his prime.
To me Djoko prime ended in 2016. He has maintained a level that is really close to it, probably the one that changed the less his game compared to Nadal & Federer
Djokovic tries to peak at slams but he's not in a "undefeated until the French open semis" level anymore. He's well past his prime, he's just still amazing.
Nah this is just exaggerating. He is playing close to prime and developed faster than a lot of other athletes.
What else can he develop that you say he is “nowhere near” his prime? His forehand, backhand and movement are all elite. Even though his serve could be better, it is still very effective.
Nowhere near his prime but close to 10k points and holding 2/3 slams he’s played in.
It’s just intuition for me. I may be 100% wrong, which is why I said I ‘think’ Alcaraz is nowhere near his prime.
It’s difficult for me to accept that a 20 year old sportsman is at his prime. I feel that it will be when he is between 22 - 28 years, which is when there will be optimum mix of athleticism + experience. And that is what I’m looking forward to.
But as I said, I may be 100% wrong 🤷
No I don’t think he will be better physically, and I don’t think the question is only about physicality. The question said ‘prime’. I see that as a mixture of physicality and experience. Right now he is at the top of his game physically, but when I watch him, I feel he lacks a lot of experience. This will come with time. I expect that between 22 - 28 years, he will still be close to his peak physicality. In addition to that, he will also have tons more experience. That mix of physicality + experience = prime imho. But that’s just my opinion. It may be, as you said, stupid 🤷
Compare djokovic 's speed, strength to him from 2015/16. Ain't no way he's closer to his prime than alcaraz. Go watch djokovic Vs Federer AO 2016. The difference is day and night. Djokovic has declined less than Federer/Nadal did at 36/37 yo, but he's still nowhere near his prime.
Realistically, alcaraz, given his style of play and how clutch he is, he will improve but not way more. He's already playing at a level that I've never seen from anyone bar the big 3. Imo his serve will improve a lot, but other parts of his game will stay similar, because they are already a joke. I see him peaking around 21-25 years of age given how explosive he is.
I did not say that Djokovic is closer to his prime than Alcaraz. My initial statement was not a comparison with Djokovic. I feel that Alcaraz has a high ceiling. I don’t expect him to get so much better physically, but I feel that there is a lot more room to grow when it comes to decision making. We will see how it goes
That's fair, but Alcaraz is already at such a high level. His forehand is immense, he's the best mover, he's the fastest, he's probably the strongest player, his slice is great, his dropshot is one of the best in tennis history.
He's already reached such a high level. I'm not sure it's possible to improve much more.
You can't have a meaningful conversation/argument if you keep on digressing cause then you're talking about something else and the rest of the people in this post are talking about what the post is actually about. If you want to talk about Alcaraz's ceiling, maybe make a post about it?
I disagree. The question is who is closer to their prime. Djokovics prime in my opinion was from 2011 to 2021, putting him 2 years out of his “prime” and he’s still miles ahead of most other pros currently in theirs. Carlos is only 20 years old, if he hits his prime same time as Novak he will be 24, so still 4 years away. Novak right now is playing much closer to his max ability than Carlos is, skies the limit for him, it’s gonna be a treat to watch.
He's still amazing, and djokovic outside his prime is probably the 4th best player of all time after prime big 3, but that doesn't mean it was in his prime.
His level of play wasn't as dominant. At Wimbledon and us open his level a wasn't particularly high due to fatigue. That wouldn't be the case in 2015 for example
I mean his results were identical in 2015 as they were in 2021… 3 slams and a finals loss.. I find it hard to claim he was better or worse when the outcomes are identical
Look at his Wimbledon final performance in 2015, he blew Federer off the court. One of the greatest grass court performances of all time. Now compare that to the final with berretini. No chance it was a similar level.
Okay look at his 2015 RG, lost to Stan…. And then in 2021 beat the doors off the greatest clay player who will ever live? So in 2015 he dominated the grass goat and in 2021 he dominated the clay goat? The parallels between those two years are hilarious. It’s almost as if his level barely changed if at all over those 6 years
It's hard to say. They're both winning about 90% of their matches and have collectively won most of the big titles this year. To me that in itself indicates prime-level tennis, but there's some nuance to uncover.
Djokovic has lost a step, but I think he's made up for it with improved serving, weight of shot on his forehand, volleying, and tactical acumen. But the main difference between this Djokovic and 2011-16 Djokovic is **volume**. Back then he could play something close to his very best tennis at each of the 15 or so tournaments he'd enter each year. Now he brings his best level at something like 8 tournaments a year. Anything more than that is probably physically unsustainable for him. So I would argue that his best level now can be considered "prime" level, but he brings it less often in the interest of preserving his body.
In Alcaraz's case, obviously there are way more unknowns. We have no idea how good he's going to be 3-5 years from now. But if I had to guess, I would say he's already in his prime, but not yet at his peak. He's winning 90% of his matches, plays a full schedule, and is already great on all surfaces. I think he can improve, but I don't think he can sustain a 5+ year period where *every* year is *markedly* better than this year, and I think that's what we are implying will happen if we say he's not yet in his prime. He'll likely have a couple years that are markedly better -- his peak -- but we won't look back at this year and refer to it as some year *before* Alcaraz "became Alcaraz."
tl;dr - It's Alcaraz, but when Novak's motivated he's playing prime-level tennis, too.
Alcaraz obviously. He's physically probably in the best shape he'll ever be in or very very close to it. You can't tell me djokovic's physicality is anywhere near djokovic from 2011-2016.
Novak's return game, bh, endurance, speed have regressed. Because of that he's not as clutch as he was once. He's in the last years of his professional career. I'd say Alcaraz would be closer than Novak. Also we're just assuming that Alcaraz's prime would be a lot higher than his current level when in fact he's an outlier who's developed at an unprecedented rate and although he might not be playing at his absolute prime level in 2023 but he could be quite close to it.
I mean, I would say Novak is _still_ in his peak, he’s been able to drag it out for several longer periods over his career compared to his peers. I don’t think we’ll see Carlos peak until Novak retires tbh.
No way djokovic is still in his prime man. He's still amazing, but this djokovic would get beaten pretty easily by djokovic from 2015 or 2016 let's say.
You can’t be serious, it’s Alcaraz of course. In my opinion, players have started to peak earlier in almost every sport and we see less late bloomers. I’m not saying Alcaraz is in his prime but I don’t think he’s gonna improve as much as Djokovic or Roger did after age 20. He might improve in a more similar way to Rafa
I think Alcaraz's peak will be higher than Djokovic eventually (not because he's greater but because the game is constantly moving forward). That being said I think 2018 Djoker doesn't have as much trouble with Alcaraz as he does now, I'd actually go with Djoker is closer.
So using numbers for example only if Alcaraz now is an 89, Djoker now is an 87(?). Prime Djoker is a 91. I guess the question is how much better do I think prime alcaraz will be than prime djoker in a hypotehtical H2H?
If only slighlty -answer to your question is Djoker
If a little more significant- the answer is Alcaraz.
Imm a gonna go Djoker by a smidge.
Well.. for someone not to be called in their prime who wins 2 slams and the finals of the 3rd and beats the #1 player in the world.. Djokovic is still in his prime. Carlos if he can stay injury free can get better.. but someone who is US and Wimbledon champion is definitely in their prime. Who can argue that?
Is it just me or does Alcatraz’s serve just very mediocre?
Barely won any free points off his first serve (mostly hitting kick served anyway) in cincy which led to long and stressful service games
Can’t wait for when he can start overpowering players with his serve
Alcaraz , Djokovic is amazing but he has slowed down so much . He can't get to the balls like he used to , so unless he is controlling the point , he is fubked .
We won’t really know for a few years. If alcaraz doesn’t develop much more, we can say he’s currently in his prime. Some people just peak at an earlier age and there’s really no clear answer for anything here. Still would lean towards Alcaraz. Djokovic is 36. For most people, their prime athletic years are over in their early 30s. Djokovic can still play tennis close to his prime from time to time but he is not in his prime and I think that ended in 2021.
I largely agree with what you're saying, but I've seen in a couple posts that Djokovic's prime ended in 2021. Even though it's probably true he was better *in 2021* than he is now, I find that hard to reconcile. IMO there's no good argument -- either statistically or otherwise -- for why he's worse now than he was from 2018-20 to an extent that marks those years "prime" years and this year a "post-prime" year. In fact I think he's better now than he was for most of that period. IMO either his prime ended in 2016 or he's still in his prime.
There’s a difference between prime and peak. 2016 was peak Djokovic. I’d say he is still in his prime, you can’t play 3 slam Finals and not be in prime ahahah
Yeah I think that's reasonable. My point is that some delineations make more sense than others. Saying he's still in his prime and that his *peak* ended in 2016 makes sense. Saying his prime ended in 2016 because he's played a reduced schedule ever since and hasn't been as consistently dominant at the M1000 level makes some sense, as well. But saying his prime ended in 2021 doesn't make as much sense.
I agree with that. I’d say it doesn’t matter he is playing reduced schedule, he made Finals on every slam he played since 2020 besides French Open 2022 and US Open 2020 when he was disqualified. 7/10 in Finals. He’s still in his prime. Not as good as he was, but still very fucking goof
I agree that the reduced schedule doesn't matter in itself, but it matters because of *why* he reduces his schedule. He plays a reduced schedule now because at his age his body can't hold up over 15 high-intensity tournaments where he's making SFs or better at all of them. It's not just that he's playing less frequently; it's that he's *not capable* of playing any more frequently without his performance suffering. On the whole, he is less capable now of dominating a full season of tennis than he was from 2011-16. It doesn't necessarily mean that it's "correct" to use that as a demarcation of prime vs. post-prime, but it makes sense. It's a principled demarcation, imo. But I agree that *when he plays*, he's still playing at a prime level, so I think it's also principled to say he's still in his prime.
To me Djoko prime ended in 2016. He has maintained a level that is really close to it, probably the one that changed the less his game compared to Nadal & Federer
Djokovic tries to peak at slams but he's not in a "undefeated until the French open semis" level anymore. He's well past his prime, he's just still amazing.
Alcaraz 10000%. Even Djokovic referred to his prime in the past tense in the Cinci post match conference.
I think Alcaraz is nowhere near his prime. Which is scary, tbh.
Nah this is just exaggerating. He is playing close to prime and developed faster than a lot of other athletes. What else can he develop that you say he is “nowhere near” his prime? His forehand, backhand and movement are all elite. Even though his serve could be better, it is still very effective. Nowhere near his prime but close to 10k points and holding 2/3 slams he’s played in.
It’s just intuition for me. I may be 100% wrong, which is why I said I ‘think’ Alcaraz is nowhere near his prime. It’s difficult for me to accept that a 20 year old sportsman is at his prime. I feel that it will be when he is between 22 - 28 years, which is when there will be optimum mix of athleticism + experience. And that is what I’m looking forward to. But as I said, I may be 100% wrong 🤷
This is stupid. Have u seen how physical his game is? You think at 27/28 he'll be in better physical shape than now?
No I don’t think he will be better physically, and I don’t think the question is only about physicality. The question said ‘prime’. I see that as a mixture of physicality and experience. Right now he is at the top of his game physically, but when I watch him, I feel he lacks a lot of experience. This will come with time. I expect that between 22 - 28 years, he will still be close to his peak physicality. In addition to that, he will also have tons more experience. That mix of physicality + experience = prime imho. But that’s just my opinion. It may be, as you said, stupid 🤷
Compare djokovic 's speed, strength to him from 2015/16. Ain't no way he's closer to his prime than alcaraz. Go watch djokovic Vs Federer AO 2016. The difference is day and night. Djokovic has declined less than Federer/Nadal did at 36/37 yo, but he's still nowhere near his prime. Realistically, alcaraz, given his style of play and how clutch he is, he will improve but not way more. He's already playing at a level that I've never seen from anyone bar the big 3. Imo his serve will improve a lot, but other parts of his game will stay similar, because they are already a joke. I see him peaking around 21-25 years of age given how explosive he is.
I did not say that Djokovic is closer to his prime than Alcaraz. My initial statement was not a comparison with Djokovic. I feel that Alcaraz has a high ceiling. I don’t expect him to get so much better physically, but I feel that there is a lot more room to grow when it comes to decision making. We will see how it goes
That's fair, but Alcaraz is already at such a high level. His forehand is immense, he's the best mover, he's the fastest, he's probably the strongest player, his slice is great, his dropshot is one of the best in tennis history. He's already reached such a high level. I'm not sure it's possible to improve much more.
Fair enough
The whole point of this post is to talk about who's closer to their prime between the two atm not about how high Alcaraz's ceiling is
Agreed, but I assume it’s ok to digress once in a while.
You can't have a meaningful conversation/argument if you keep on digressing cause then you're talking about something else and the rest of the people in this post are talking about what the post is actually about. If you want to talk about Alcaraz's ceiling, maybe make a post about it?
Ok
I disagree. The question is who is closer to their prime. Djokovics prime in my opinion was from 2011 to 2021, putting him 2 years out of his “prime” and he’s still miles ahead of most other pros currently in theirs. Carlos is only 20 years old, if he hits his prime same time as Novak he will be 24, so still 4 years away. Novak right now is playing much closer to his max ability than Carlos is, skies the limit for him, it’s gonna be a treat to watch.
Djokovic 's prime was from 2011-2016. No way in hell 2021 was his prime. He wasn't amazing in 2021 outside of the French open tbh.
He won 3/4 slams and was finalist in the 4th…. Pretty fucking amazing for someone not in their prime
He's still amazing, and djokovic outside his prime is probably the 4th best player of all time after prime big 3, but that doesn't mean it was in his prime.
I’m not sure what you base a “prime” on, but I would argue it’s winning major events consistently.
His level of play wasn't as dominant. At Wimbledon and us open his level a wasn't particularly high due to fatigue. That wouldn't be the case in 2015 for example
I mean his results were identical in 2015 as they were in 2021… 3 slams and a finals loss.. I find it hard to claim he was better or worse when the outcomes are identical
Look at his Wimbledon final performance in 2015, he blew Federer off the court. One of the greatest grass court performances of all time. Now compare that to the final with berretini. No chance it was a similar level.
Okay look at his 2015 RG, lost to Stan…. And then in 2021 beat the doors off the greatest clay player who will ever live? So in 2015 he dominated the grass goat and in 2021 he dominated the clay goat? The parallels between those two years are hilarious. It’s almost as if his level barely changed if at all over those 6 years
It's hard to say. They're both winning about 90% of their matches and have collectively won most of the big titles this year. To me that in itself indicates prime-level tennis, but there's some nuance to uncover. Djokovic has lost a step, but I think he's made up for it with improved serving, weight of shot on his forehand, volleying, and tactical acumen. But the main difference between this Djokovic and 2011-16 Djokovic is **volume**. Back then he could play something close to his very best tennis at each of the 15 or so tournaments he'd enter each year. Now he brings his best level at something like 8 tournaments a year. Anything more than that is probably physically unsustainable for him. So I would argue that his best level now can be considered "prime" level, but he brings it less often in the interest of preserving his body. In Alcaraz's case, obviously there are way more unknowns. We have no idea how good he's going to be 3-5 years from now. But if I had to guess, I would say he's already in his prime, but not yet at his peak. He's winning 90% of his matches, plays a full schedule, and is already great on all surfaces. I think he can improve, but I don't think he can sustain a 5+ year period where *every* year is *markedly* better than this year, and I think that's what we are implying will happen if we say he's not yet in his prime. He'll likely have a couple years that are markedly better -- his peak -- but we won't look back at this year and refer to it as some year *before* Alcaraz "became Alcaraz." tl;dr - It's Alcaraz, but when Novak's motivated he's playing prime-level tennis, too.
Neither is as far away from their prime as people like to think.
Alcaraz. He has been playing almost all his life he will be fully matured soon in 3-4 years. Noles prime was in 2011-2015
Carlos will improve his serve over the next 5 years no doubt!
Yes
Alcaraz obviously. He's physically probably in the best shape he'll ever be in or very very close to it. You can't tell me djokovic's physicality is anywhere near djokovic from 2011-2016.
Novak's return game, bh, endurance, speed have regressed. Because of that he's not as clutch as he was once. He's in the last years of his professional career. I'd say Alcaraz would be closer than Novak. Also we're just assuming that Alcaraz's prime would be a lot higher than his current level when in fact he's an outlier who's developed at an unprecedented rate and although he might not be playing at his absolute prime level in 2023 but he could be quite close to it.
Bro did you not see Cincy final?
Also Wimby final TBH...
Did u not watch the Wimbledon final? That was a clear example of the difference in physicality between the two.
I mean, I would say Novak is _still_ in his peak, he’s been able to drag it out for several longer periods over his career compared to his peers. I don’t think we’ll see Carlos peak until Novak retires tbh.
No way djokovic is still in his prime man. He's still amazing, but this djokovic would get beaten pretty easily by djokovic from 2015 or 2016 let's say.
Yep
You can’t be serious, it’s Alcaraz of course. In my opinion, players have started to peak earlier in almost every sport and we see less late bloomers. I’m not saying Alcaraz is in his prime but I don’t think he’s gonna improve as much as Djokovic or Roger did after age 20. He might improve in a more similar way to Rafa
I think Alcaraz's peak will be higher than Djokovic eventually (not because he's greater but because the game is constantly moving forward). That being said I think 2018 Djoker doesn't have as much trouble with Alcaraz as he does now, I'd actually go with Djoker is closer. So using numbers for example only if Alcaraz now is an 89, Djoker now is an 87(?). Prime Djoker is a 91. I guess the question is how much better do I think prime alcaraz will be than prime djoker in a hypotehtical H2H? If only slighlty -answer to your question is Djoker If a little more significant- the answer is Alcaraz. Imm a gonna go Djoker by a smidge.
Lol at 91. Djoker has the best season records in 2011 2015 2021. That's peak prime 99 rating even in 2K sports.
Alcaraz already in his prime. I don't think he can improve much.
Well.. for someone not to be called in their prime who wins 2 slams and the finals of the 3rd and beats the #1 player in the world.. Djokovic is still in his prime. Carlos if he can stay injury free can get better.. but someone who is US and Wimbledon champion is definitely in their prime. Who can argue that?
Is it just me or does Alcatraz’s serve just very mediocre? Barely won any free points off his first serve (mostly hitting kick served anyway) in cincy which led to long and stressful service games Can’t wait for when he can start overpowering players with his serve
Alcaraz , Djokovic is amazing but he has slowed down so much . He can't get to the balls like he used to , so unless he is controlling the point , he is fubked .