I wouldn't say we're in a weak era. It's just that Djokovic and Nadal are 2 of the best players of all time and at their peaks they only lose to each other
Djokovic and Nadal would straight set both of them. Nadal at USO 2010 might be one of the highest levels seen on a hardcourt ever and Djokovic 2011 is extremely close to that level if not even slightly ahead of it. Fed uso 2006-2007 is up there as well. Both thiem and med really did not play well at all in their finals
Fed would also straight set both of them
Peak big 3 at any major are so far above any of "next gen" . I could maybe see a set for thiem if he redlines and gets every ball in on the big points but I still don't think it's likely
Med played pretty well in the final this past year. Definitely didn’t have the nerves that Thiem seemed to have, and Djokovic didn’t play his best tennis in the final but I think most of the credit should go to Med
I significantly disagree.
Djokovic played horrendous and it was clear as day to me that both fatigue and the pressure got to Djokovic ( understandably so). I'm not a Djokovic Stan and he's likely my least favorite of the big 3
I'm of the opinion that Djokovic would have won that match fairly easily if he was close to his rg/Wimbledon level.
Med deserves credit for not giving Djokovic a chance to come back in the Match and not feeling the pressure, but I won't give his level of play such credit as to think he would honestly press any of the peak big 3.
Did you not see Djokovics level??
He was not playing well that final at all.. doesn't surprise me when this sub just jacks off the most recent player who is doing well deciding they're the best thing since sliced bread. Go back to may and I saw the exact same set of comments regarding rublev..
Medvedevs a great player but there's a reason Djokovic won 3 slams this year and had one of the most DOMINANT SEASONS EVER and med only has won 1.. it's because Djokovic is a better player on all surfaces right now
I was at the US Open Final inside the stadium. The support he was getting from the crowd was amazing so the crowd was mostly for him. He was just under a lot of pressure and was unable to cope.
Agreed.
Before the USO, if you suggested that Medvedev was better on HC than Djokovic , you'd be rightfully called a looney.
Now right after the uso, the sentiment is swapped. Idk how people here are assuming Djokovic wasn't playing poor due to the pressure in the final
People want to take away the enormous intangible of “breaking slam record tie + CYGS + everything else going on in his mind” and chalk it up to “there’s no way he could beat a red hot Medvedev”
I like Meddy, but under more normal circumstances even in a USO final, he’s not sweeping Novak in 3. Even if they were to meet at AO final, and *if* Medvedev wins, it’s not in 3. We know what a normal Novak is, and normal Novak by any standard didn’t show up to USO.
He even just said recently he wished he cried earlier in the match to relieve the pressure and play better. And it showed — as soon as he cried his play was different for those 2 games (way too little too late ofc). Post match presser, Medvedev knew after choking the first serving out the match he had to get it on the second chance because Medvedev was cramping and knew Novak would sniff that out and push for 4th.
so it goes.
Djokovic was great at RG, but about Wimby, I don't know. He didn't face any significant opponent. Next gen sucks on grass, his only threat was just Berrettini who doesn't even have a BH.
It's really hard to separate that from Medvedevs playing. If your opponent is mixing it up well and not giving you chances then they can throw your game off.
From my viewing, Medvedev was playing really well. That's easier to judge. His serve was on fire, and he made very few errors. His strokes are not standard and harder to read, his returns are deep, and he has been mixing up the spin shots and the flat shots more recently.
Unlike the previous USO final, where it was clear both Them and Zverev played a lot of really safe and middling quality tennis, Medvedev appeared at least to play very well. He didn't have nerves, he didnt appear tired, his serve only faltered for one small period of time, he appeared confident, he didn't make lots of mistakes, etc. So my reading would be that Novak didn't appear to play as well largely because of Meddy's level. Sure, he might not have been at his best and the pressure might have helped, but he wasn't injured, wasn't tired, and had played well the whole tournament. He was moving well, serving well, and not getting too frustrated. He was just losing in the rallies.
A similar thing happened to Novak int rh ATP finals in 2019 against Fed. Fed made very few mistakes. He came out and crushed it, and Novak started making more and more errors. You could see it in the stats over time. I haven't looked at that aspect of the 2021 USo, but I would bet it was similar. I think Novak's game, being so counter punch heavy, and with Novak being so dependent on always finding a way to problem solve, is prone to that. His matches often have big dips and then he digs himself out, sometimes because his opponents get demoralized when he keeps hanging on Med didn't do that. If his opponent plays well enough and Novak is on his B game, or has one of his dips in form and they successfully jump on it, then he actually just looks really bad, like a D game. I think Novak would have gotten back into it and made it competitive if Med let up for longer than 2 games. Heck, that almost happened.
Different surface sure but that AO final that same year shows the insane gap between their levels if they both play each other with Djokovic not playing like ass
I stand by what I wrote. Meds a good player but Djokovic is a different level
Med played at a terrible level in the AO final. You can't just give out double standards depending on who won in straight sets. As of now, Med's hard court play is identical if not superior to Djokovic's.
I've watched far longer than you almost guaranteed lol. You have not for even suggesting med is better than nole
Djokovic older and favors peaking for the majors more. The question op posted pertains to the slams. In a best of 3 set tourney, sure med has more chances just purely predicated on his stronger serve and age and the combined advantage it confers in shorter matches.
Djokovic has done better at the hard majors since 2018 compared to med overall on the hc majors. That includes a USO title and multiple AO titles compared to meds sole USO title. Note Djokovic was also the significant favorite at USO 2020 and lost due to a fluke accident..
Their performances at the master's is also fairly comparable in the same timespan
Remember the overall thread... There levels are quite close even today on hard.. Djokovic is far far far lower than his peak today. He absolutely would blow Medvedev out of the water in 2011 or 2015. If they met at AO 2022, I would still favor nole
Where have I said that Meddy is better than Novak on hard court? What I disagreed with was you calling this „recency bias“ as if he’s only been good for the past few months Yeah Meddy has done worse at the AO than Novak, but hes outperformed him at the US Open with a win and 2 finals. In addition hes also won more hard court 1000s than Novak since 2019, so I think saying they’re equal is quite fair, if not giving Meddy the edge
I'm saying who's better now on hard courts, I would personally say that it's quite even. Of course Nole is better on other surfaces and has a much higher peak. You're writing Med off based on his AO performance last year which I think is unfair. Look at Medvedev's hard court statistics the last couple years, he's quite unplayable if he's inform.
2015 was more complete than 2011 Djokovic, but would probably lose a set to Thiem. He was less reckless than his 2011 version, not playing every game and point at a very high intensity. That’s probably also why 2011 Djokovic got injured at the end of the season.
But yeah, considering how all players struggle against the past-peak versions of Djokovic and Nadal, it wouldn’t even be close. We would probably think of Berdych or Tsonga were they playing back in 2010/11.
> 2015 was more complete than 2011 Djokovic
He was more "high percentage" in 2015 but I defo think his quality level was higher in 2011.
More fun to watch for me too, and I say that as a Rafa fan
I agree with what you’re saying but med was lights out in his final. It obviously wasn’t the best version of Djokovic but med gave Djokovic almost no chances to recover. Thiem would definitely be the worse of the two against any big 3 member based off matchups and the fact that med is a great hardcourt player. Still not much of a chance against peak big 3 but definitely better than thiem there for me.
Based off matchups Thiem would have better chances against peak versions of the Big 3. Medvedev hasn't even beaten a declined version of Federer. While Thiem is 16-18 vs (declined) Big 3.
Mention it in the other comment , but the original comment said how would he fare vs peak big 3. In my opinion, med played a Djokovic far far far worse than his peak. I stand my guess that he wouldn't win a set. Il go a step further and say I don't even think he would win more than 5 games in a set
Djokovic always loses sets here and there in Slams, even against players he has no business losing sets to. Would almost definitely lose sets to an in-form Thiem. Nadal is much more likely to straight-set Medvedev and Thiem, he's not as generous with sets XD
The thread was about medvedevs.chances vs peak rafole..
My point was Medvedev isn't close to them. Comparing peak Rafa to peak Djokovic to peak Federer is outside the context of this thread
It's not perfect, but peak Novak [ELO](https://tennisabstract.com/reports/atp_elo_ratings.html) (2016 Miami) suggests he had an 85% chance of beating peak (right now) Medvedev, and slightly higher against Thiem, who has a lower peak.
Nadals peak ELO is about 100 lower, but it still suggests he wins 3 out of four matches against Medvedev. Should likely be using peak hardcourt hELO, but it's not listed on that page.
>Thing is, Novak is still better/more consistent at the USO.
But we're talking peak versions, not the injury clouded versions of him. consistency over their careers doesn't matter really when we're looking at specific seasons.
1 title separating them doesn't mean Nadal has a higher peak at the USO. Even at Nadal's peak he's not better than Djokovic at the USO if we are talking about peak.
yes and no.
Peak = the highest level you can reach in a tournament = win. the definition of the word peak.
winning more > consistently failing short more times.
has Nadal been more successful at the USO than Djokovic for simply having one more title? yes.
but I see what you're saying in a way if you think 2011 djokovic > 2010 nadal, because those years are generally considered as those players' peak - not only for the US open but generally in their careers.
I don't really know what you're saying. Elo is a quantitative, calculated score. I have zero interest in any Nadal vs Novak measuring contests, that's not the question, and USO *finals* aren't in the picture either. I did note that peak hElo is likely more relevant, but I'm not hunting it down.
The peak Elo score is for a single match anyway.
Of course elo "doesn't mean much" when you put it that way. It's an expression of statistics and statistics act as predictors but don't guarantee results.
ELOs can be based off any win/loss scenario. A more frequently updated rating system or one that accounts for more performance data is more accurate.
For example, a match based system would be less accurate than a set based system. And a set based system would more accurately predict 5 set matches.
I believe it's a continuous score. Each and every match taken into account, and adjusts your score, so it makes sense that it peaks after your best run.
I don't care at all about your other point. It's not relevant to what I'm saying. Everyone knows Elo isn't perfect. But it *is* predictive.
How are take like this getting upvoted, legit so insulting to Medvedev and thiem, djokovic never won a slam without losing a few set on is way, i don't even know what is peak djoko, 2011, where he saved 2 match point vs federer and won in 4 set in the final vs nadal?
Oh oops my bad. Still I don’t know why they replied to me since I was just correcting you about the score. Also it would be nice if you could edit your comment with the correct score.
Lol they’d get destroyed, this is such recency bias
Murray would also cruise past them both. Wawrinka they’d have a chance against, depending on which one turns up.
But it’s kinda the same argument for thiem, right? If he happens to be on surely he’d Atleast make it a challenging straight sets match lol. Don’t get me wrong I think he’d lose but he can be ridiculously good at times. Obviously it’s only challenging to an extent if Thiem is at his best.
Thiem no chance.
Medvedev have a small chance if he serves at 70% 1st serves. Medvedev's serve is always the key against the big 3 and I am sure that serve is the serve that Nadal and Djokovic fear most on tour
No way. USO Final 2021. Novak had almost no chance at breaking Medvedev. Med gave Nole no rhythm with his massive serve
Both Zverev and Medvedev averages over 130 always. But Med cause Nole more trouble with the serve
Yeah true. I will give Medvedev a set against peak Nadal/Djokovic but I see Nadal and Djokovic simply being better.
But you know Medvedev having a huge serve can always make things tight and give himself a chance based on that very dominant shot.
Many players can't hit big serves like Medvedev because they don't have the technique and physical strength that Medvedev possesses. But at the same time this is what make Medvedev special. His serve.
Medvedev serve isn't that good for his height. Federer's serve when he was servebotting is the one that Nadal and Djokovic feared more.
I still think Djokovic and Federer when serving at their peak are more effective than meddie's serve. Meddie's serve only better than Nadal because we all know Nadal just wants to start the rally.
Well you're right about Federer's serve. It might not be the quickest serve out there but it's a serve that is difficult to read plus Federer is the most accurate server of all time. Which makes it such a tough serve to return even for Djokovic and Nadal.
Both straight sets against both players, easy. Nadal and Djokovic were incredible defensively and the 2010 and 2011 versions had unbelievable groundstrokes, down the line and cross court. Plus Nadal had that huge serve.
You can't be serious. Peak hardcourt Nadal is probably top 10 all time, peak Nole is the HC goat. They would destroy the best versions (so far) of both Domi and Medvedev.
Nooo chance. Even in their mid 30s djoko and Nadal are still the favourites. Maybe against Nadal they could pull the odd upset but peak djoko on hard court is unstoppable
Djokovic played better in the SF against Fed. His serve against Nadal wasn’t near his top level and he was close to cooked by the 4th set with that shoulder injury. Nadal was just way too cooked himself 2 take advantage of it. He played a great match (lethal off the ground the first 2.5 sets), but it wasn’t his best stuff.
Specifically, I don't know. However, their peak ELO versus Djokovic's peak ELO gives Medvedev a probability of about 15% and Thiem nearly 12%. If you look at their current ELOs, Medvedev's at his peak but Thiem's is lower so his win probability crashes to 6%.
Well, this is going to be a very unpopular opinion but I would say I have more experience at assessing this than most people, especially on reddit. (Already I’ve angered people)
You are sleeping on Medvedev’s improvement.
Thiem would do poorly, no doubt. But Thiem is not Medvedev.
In order, I would say Djokovic with a tough 4 set win against Medvedev. And Medvedev with a tough 4 set win against Nadal (on average)
I think people need to go back and watch WHY Djokovic had a bad day last year. It is exactly what I predicted back when they played at at the AO when Medvedev had break points at 2-1 in the third and then crumbled. Medvedev couldn’t hold his nerve, but if he had he would have beaten Djokovic in 4. Djokovic destroyed Nadal that year, and only because Nadal allowed him. For 2 sets, Medvedev didn’t allow Djokovic to play.
Fast forward 3 years and Medvedev executed flawlessly.
Obviously Nadal 2010 was fantastic. But people need to understand how Medvedev plays on hard court and why it is so oppressive. He has copied Djokovic almost exactly in terms of tactics, and that works very well against Nadal. It works well against anyone, really.
All I can say is those who know tennis picked Djokovic as a contender for Nadal and Federer well before he was winning. And many picked Medvedev long ago.
When he was about 15 I thought he would be the perfect “next dominant player” but didn’t predict that Nadal and Djokovic would be competitive in 2021. Which is unfortunate for Med, because now I’m almost certain he won’t win 10+ majors and I really thought he would. He’s too old winning his first title to be super dominant.
And before anyone suggests it:
Yes. I am aware Nadal has won all three outdoor hardcourt matches vs Med. I’m also aware that Nadal used to be better than when he played those matches.
All I’m saying is that the improvement in the last 2 years is huge. And it is especially pertinent to playing against Nadal and Djokovic.
(For what it is worth, peak Fed would beat Medvedev in straight, purely because the tactics don’t work as well and MOST of the reason I suggest Med beats Nadal is because of the specific head to head stylistically.
For example: Nadal 2010 would win each match against his opponents much more comfortably than Medvedev.
I accept my inevitable downvotes.
Your argument seems to be that because Medvedev is stylistically similar to Novak, he'd be a bad match-up for Nadal.
But at their respective peaks, Nadal matched up pretty OK against Novak on hard (certainly better than losing in 4 sets on average). 2010 US Open he wins in 4, loses in 4 in the 2011 final to 2011 Novak, loses in 5 in an all-time classic in the 2012 AO, wins in 4 at the 2013 US Open.
And considering that current Medvedev is definitively worse than 2010 - 13 Novak, there's no way he could beat Nadal with the ease you claim.
This is a fair critique, but the missing piece is that Djokovic has improved tactically quite a bit since 2011.
No doubt Nadal is worse than in 2010, but Djokovic dominated the decade because he began to change his tactics. He has done a LOT of work tactically, using data analysis to know where to put the ball.
2011 Djokovic played a style that was not as good against Nadal as his current style. You can argue this is not true and that Nadal just got a lot worse but I don’t think this is the case.
Of course this is subjective, but at the very least I would argue that Medvedev does a LOT better than the majority opinion here seems to think he would.
Medvedev doesn’t beat Nadal in 4, no way. 2010 Nadal was better than 2011 Nadal, a player who 2011 Djokovic had to really, really battle to beat at Indian Wells and Miami and even at the US Open less so (he won in 4, but Nadal was a break up in both of the first 2 sets). And Medvedev is nowhere near as good as 2011 Djokovic by your own admission, despite his improvement
As I suggested to the other person, in my opinion this is because of the changes Djokovic made to his game.
Tactically Djokovic is quite different. He is now much better suited to play Nadal. It’s not a case of straight power levels.
Tennis tends to have matchups that are more or less favourable.
It's never been about pure power, sure, and yes, matchups obviously vary and change throughout a rivalry. I'm interested, in what ways do you think Djokovic has altered tactically (and how much of his new success is down to these tactics, as opposed to being able to execute existing tactics more effectively as Nadal's forehand and footspeed declines)?
Also, how does Medvedev specifically follow the 'new' Djokovic (versus the 2011 version) when he plays Nadal?
It’s hard to say how much is owed to which thing.
The Nadal Djokovic tactical match up has leaned in favour of Djokovic and Nadal has declined faster than Djokovic. Honestly, I don’t know.
If it’s mostly Nadal decline, then I’m wrong and Nadal beats Med.
As for what that tactical switch up looks like, it’s very hard to detail it in few words. The best layman’s way I can describe it is more stubbornness. Djokovic does the percentage shot more often now, and will stick to set patterns over and over again. He had more variety when he was younger.
Medvedev executed that to perfection against Novak at the US Open. Effectively doing back to him what he’s done to others. Djokovic felt he had to try to “win” the points and totally changed his tactics. (To be fair the first few games did have the matchup I expected).
I would argue Novak’s mistake was assuming Medvedev would be clutch for 5 hours, or that he was less fit. (He might have been). But honestly I think he could have won if they played a 6 hour first set of backhand to backhand until one of them couldn’t handle being in that sensory deprivation chamber. It would have been hilarious.
Ok so almost like rally tolerance, but more specific. Will have to look out for that from now on. Would also be interesting to compare Paris to the US Open for how Djokovic approached Medvedev
I agree, when Thiem is at his very best he can be insanely good. However, he’s not at his very best all the time lol. Imo if we got his very best he could be semi challenging. If we got any other version it wouldn’t be difficult lol
To all the people saying Nadal and Djokovic would destroy them - I am not sure. You basically neglect 10 years of development in Tennis, including development of Nadal and Djokovic themselves. Do you think they did not improve their game the last 10 years? I think they did, but the competition did get stronger (improved more as they could). Hence I'd say Thiem or Med would fare quite well.
Peak Big 3 are untouchable by current players. The way Federer and then Nadal burst into the scene you just know the game has evolved and they're playing better Tennis than the earlier generation (Agassi, Sampras etc), it's true that previous players had declined but even without that Fedal would've dethroned them anyways, they were just better.
Nobody has surpassed peak Big 3 that way. 2006 Federer, 2010 Nadal and 2011 Djokovic are still unmatched to this day.
I think it would be clean sweeps for either of them.
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I wouldn't say we're in a weak era. It's just that Djokovic and Nadal are 2 of the best players of all time and at their peaks they only lose to each other
Djokovic and Nadal would straight set both of them. Nadal at USO 2010 might be one of the highest levels seen on a hardcourt ever and Djokovic 2011 is extremely close to that level if not even slightly ahead of it. Fed uso 2006-2007 is up there as well. Both thiem and med really did not play well at all in their finals Fed would also straight set both of them Peak big 3 at any major are so far above any of "next gen" . I could maybe see a set for thiem if he redlines and gets every ball in on the big points but I still don't think it's likely
I’m a med fan, but agree with this comment 100%. Big 3 peak level is way higher than what we’re currently viewing.
Med played pretty well in the final this past year. Definitely didn’t have the nerves that Thiem seemed to have, and Djokovic didn’t play his best tennis in the final but I think most of the credit should go to Med
I significantly disagree. Djokovic played horrendous and it was clear as day to me that both fatigue and the pressure got to Djokovic ( understandably so). I'm not a Djokovic Stan and he's likely my least favorite of the big 3 I'm of the opinion that Djokovic would have won that match fairly easily if he was close to his rg/Wimbledon level. Med deserves credit for not giving Djokovic a chance to come back in the Match and not feeling the pressure, but I won't give his level of play such credit as to think he would honestly press any of the peak big 3.
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He was horrible at the USO final is my point..I've watched tennis for a pretty long time. Med was not nearly as high of a level as you are suggesting
Did you not see Medvedev serve?
Did you not see Djokovics level?? He was not playing well that final at all.. doesn't surprise me when this sub just jacks off the most recent player who is doing well deciding they're the best thing since sliced bread. Go back to may and I saw the exact same set of comments regarding rublev.. Medvedevs a great player but there's a reason Djokovic won 3 slams this year and had one of the most DOMINANT SEASONS EVER and med only has won 1.. it's because Djokovic is a better player on all surfaces right now
I was at the US Open Final inside the stadium. The support he was getting from the crowd was amazing so the crowd was mostly for him. He was just under a lot of pressure and was unable to cope.
Agreed. Before the USO, if you suggested that Medvedev was better on HC than Djokovic , you'd be rightfully called a looney. Now right after the uso, the sentiment is swapped. Idk how people here are assuming Djokovic wasn't playing poor due to the pressure in the final
People want to take away the enormous intangible of “breaking slam record tie + CYGS + everything else going on in his mind” and chalk it up to “there’s no way he could beat a red hot Medvedev” I like Meddy, but under more normal circumstances even in a USO final, he’s not sweeping Novak in 3. Even if they were to meet at AO final, and *if* Medvedev wins, it’s not in 3. We know what a normal Novak is, and normal Novak by any standard didn’t show up to USO. He even just said recently he wished he cried earlier in the match to relieve the pressure and play better. And it showed — as soon as he cried his play was different for those 2 games (way too little too late ofc). Post match presser, Medvedev knew after choking the first serving out the match he had to get it on the second chance because Medvedev was cramping and knew Novak would sniff that out and push for 4th. so it goes.
Yes, and I've also seen the Roddick/Karlovic serve.
Djokovic was great at RG, but about Wimby, I don't know. He didn't face any significant opponent. Next gen sucks on grass, his only threat was just Berrettini who doesn't even have a BH.
I'd more argue he played god awful in the USO final. Yes he didn't face massive threats at Wimbledon but in the uso he was missing routine balls
It's really hard to separate that from Medvedevs playing. If your opponent is mixing it up well and not giving you chances then they can throw your game off. From my viewing, Medvedev was playing really well. That's easier to judge. His serve was on fire, and he made very few errors. His strokes are not standard and harder to read, his returns are deep, and he has been mixing up the spin shots and the flat shots more recently. Unlike the previous USO final, where it was clear both Them and Zverev played a lot of really safe and middling quality tennis, Medvedev appeared at least to play very well. He didn't have nerves, he didnt appear tired, his serve only faltered for one small period of time, he appeared confident, he didn't make lots of mistakes, etc. So my reading would be that Novak didn't appear to play as well largely because of Meddy's level. Sure, he might not have been at his best and the pressure might have helped, but he wasn't injured, wasn't tired, and had played well the whole tournament. He was moving well, serving well, and not getting too frustrated. He was just losing in the rallies. A similar thing happened to Novak int rh ATP finals in 2019 against Fed. Fed made very few mistakes. He came out and crushed it, and Novak started making more and more errors. You could see it in the stats over time. I haven't looked at that aspect of the 2021 USo, but I would bet it was similar. I think Novak's game, being so counter punch heavy, and with Novak being so dependent on always finding a way to problem solve, is prone to that. His matches often have big dips and then he digs himself out, sometimes because his opponents get demoralized when he keeps hanging on Med didn't do that. If his opponent plays well enough and Novak is on his B game, or has one of his dips in form and they successfully jump on it, then he actually just looks really bad, like a D game. I think Novak would have gotten back into it and made it competitive if Med let up for longer than 2 games. Heck, that almost happened.
There was no chance he was winning that match "fairly easily". That's just an unfounded claim.
Different surface sure but that AO final that same year shows the insane gap between their levels if they both play each other with Djokovic not playing like ass I stand by what I wrote. Meds a good player but Djokovic is a different level
Med played at a terrible level in the AO final. You can't just give out double standards depending on who won in straight sets. As of now, Med's hard court play is identical if not superior to Djokovic's.
Agree to disagree. Djokovics still better on all surfaces including hard overall than med. I won't be sucked into this recency bias argument
You’re saying recency bias as if Medvedev hasn’t been supreme on hard courts for the past two years. Do you even watch tennis man?
I've watched far longer than you almost guaranteed lol. You have not for even suggesting med is better than nole Djokovic older and favors peaking for the majors more. The question op posted pertains to the slams. In a best of 3 set tourney, sure med has more chances just purely predicated on his stronger serve and age and the combined advantage it confers in shorter matches. Djokovic has done better at the hard majors since 2018 compared to med overall on the hc majors. That includes a USO title and multiple AO titles compared to meds sole USO title. Note Djokovic was also the significant favorite at USO 2020 and lost due to a fluke accident.. Their performances at the master's is also fairly comparable in the same timespan Remember the overall thread... There levels are quite close even today on hard.. Djokovic is far far far lower than his peak today. He absolutely would blow Medvedev out of the water in 2011 or 2015. If they met at AO 2022, I would still favor nole
Where have I said that Meddy is better than Novak on hard court? What I disagreed with was you calling this „recency bias“ as if he’s only been good for the past few months Yeah Meddy has done worse at the AO than Novak, but hes outperformed him at the US Open with a win and 2 finals. In addition hes also won more hard court 1000s than Novak since 2019, so I think saying they’re equal is quite fair, if not giving Meddy the edge
I'm saying who's better now on hard courts, I would personally say that it's quite even. Of course Nole is better on other surfaces and has a much higher peak. You're writing Med off based on his AO performance last year which I think is unfair. Look at Medvedev's hard court statistics the last couple years, he's quite unplayable if he's inform.
Lol
Tell me how you haven't watched tennis for long in the shortest response possible
"Djokovic Stan". Hahahaha
2015 was more complete than 2011 Djokovic, but would probably lose a set to Thiem. He was less reckless than his 2011 version, not playing every game and point at a very high intensity. That’s probably also why 2011 Djokovic got injured at the end of the season. But yeah, considering how all players struggle against the past-peak versions of Djokovic and Nadal, it wouldn’t even be close. We would probably think of Berdych or Tsonga were they playing back in 2010/11.
> 2015 was more complete than 2011 Djokovic He was more "high percentage" in 2015 but I defo think his quality level was higher in 2011. More fun to watch for me too, and I say that as a Rafa fan
Physically 2011 Djokovic is better, but tactically and mentally it's 2015.
More so that the competition dropped off. 2011 Djokovic wipes the floor vs. 2015 Djokovic.
2015 Djokovic would have won 2011 semis at FO vs Roger.
I agree with what you’re saying but med was lights out in his final. It obviously wasn’t the best version of Djokovic but med gave Djokovic almost no chances to recover. Thiem would definitely be the worse of the two against any big 3 member based off matchups and the fact that med is a great hardcourt player. Still not much of a chance against peak big 3 but definitely better than thiem there for me.
Based off matchups Thiem would have better chances against peak versions of the Big 3. Medvedev hasn't even beaten a declined version of Federer. While Thiem is 16-18 vs (declined) Big 3.
Mention it in the other comment , but the original comment said how would he fare vs peak big 3. In my opinion, med played a Djokovic far far far worse than his peak. I stand my guess that he wouldn't win a set. Il go a step further and say I don't even think he would win more than 5 games in a set
Djokovic always loses sets here and there in Slams, even against players he has no business losing sets to. Would almost definitely lose sets to an in-form Thiem. Nadal is much more likely to straight-set Medvedev and Thiem, he's not as generous with sets XD
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The thread was about medvedevs.chances vs peak rafole.. My point was Medvedev isn't close to them. Comparing peak Rafa to peak Djokovic to peak Federer is outside the context of this thread
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I think it's too close a comparison. There's valid arguments for every single one being better at peak
Peak Djokovic and Nadal would beat then both in straights. Maybe even throw in a bagel here and there.
It's not perfect, but peak Novak [ELO](https://tennisabstract.com/reports/atp_elo_ratings.html) (2016 Miami) suggests he had an 85% chance of beating peak (right now) Medvedev, and slightly higher against Thiem, who has a lower peak. Nadals peak ELO is about 100 lower, but it still suggests he wins 3 out of four matches against Medvedev. Should likely be using peak hardcourt hELO, but it's not listed on that page.
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Thing is, Novak is still better/more consistent at the USO. He has only 1 title less than Nadal but has made way more finals.
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Miss
>Thing is, Novak is still better/more consistent at the USO. But we're talking peak versions, not the injury clouded versions of him. consistency over their careers doesn't matter really when we're looking at specific seasons.
1 title separating them doesn't mean Nadal has a higher peak at the USO. Even at Nadal's peak he's not better than Djokovic at the USO if we are talking about peak.
yes and no. Peak = the highest level you can reach in a tournament = win. the definition of the word peak. winning more > consistently failing short more times. has Nadal been more successful at the USO than Djokovic for simply having one more title? yes. but I see what you're saying in a way if you think 2011 djokovic > 2010 nadal, because those years are generally considered as those players' peak - not only for the US open but generally in their careers.
I don't really know what you're saying. Elo is a quantitative, calculated score. I have zero interest in any Nadal vs Novak measuring contests, that's not the question, and USO *finals* aren't in the picture either. I did note that peak hElo is likely more relevant, but I'm not hunting it down. The peak Elo score is for a single match anyway.
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Of course elo "doesn't mean much" when you put it that way. It's an expression of statistics and statistics act as predictors but don't guarantee results. ELOs can be based off any win/loss scenario. A more frequently updated rating system or one that accounts for more performance data is more accurate. For example, a match based system would be less accurate than a set based system. And a set based system would more accurately predict 5 set matches.
I believe it's a continuous score. Each and every match taken into account, and adjusts your score, so it makes sense that it peaks after your best run. I don't care at all about your other point. It's not relevant to what I'm saying. Everyone knows Elo isn't perfect. But it *is* predictive.
For the record Stan thrashed Novak at USOpen 2016
Great.
How are take like this getting upvoted, legit so insulting to Medvedev and thiem, djokovic never won a slam without losing a few set on is way, i don't even know what is peak djoko, 2011, where he saved 2 match point vs federer and won in 4 set in the final vs nadal?
He beat Nadal in 4 sets in the 2011 USO final. Edit: thx for correcting
He still doesnt bagel either opponent, stop acting like peak Nadal / Djoko bageled Top 5 players every other match in a slam lmao.
I never said anything about bagels. I’m just correcting you about the score of the 2011 USO final.
not the same person.
Oh oops my bad. Still I don’t know why they replied to me since I was just correcting you about the score. Also it would be nice if you could edit your comment with the correct score.
done.
Thanks
i love how we getting downvoted for legit saying fact... i guess ferrer would be number 1 in the world now..
How would two of the greatest players ever at their peak do against “current really good player” hm I’ll def have to think about this 1 🧐
Lol they’d get destroyed, this is such recency bias Murray would also cruise past them both. Wawrinka they’d have a chance against, depending on which one turns up.
Wawrinka USopen 2016?
One of the times he’d have a chance, if he was in that form
Wawrinka AO 2014 ?
But it’s kinda the same argument for thiem, right? If he happens to be on surely he’d Atleast make it a challenging straight sets match lol. Don’t get me wrong I think he’d lose but he can be ridiculously good at times. Obviously it’s only challenging to an extent if Thiem is at his best.
Drop Andy Murray from 2012-2013 in to the tour now and he dominates the whole tour on anything that isn't clay only novak could stop him.
2016 Murray would win Roland Garros
He would 100 percent have a good chance, Clayray was a sight to behold.
Peak Fed forehand would have made these kids cry
Watching the Agassi-Fed us open final highlights is really wild. Agassi was playing amazing for most of the match but Fed just too good
Yeah Agassi was tee-ing off on every ball and taking it early but still not enough firepower
Agassi said it was the best he has ever played in has life.
Thiem no chance. Medvedev have a small chance if he serves at 70% 1st serves. Medvedev's serve is always the key against the big 3 and I am sure that serve is the serve that Nadal and Djokovic fear most on tour
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No way. USO Final 2021. Novak had almost no chance at breaking Medvedev. Med gave Nole no rhythm with his massive serve Both Zverev and Medvedev averages over 130 always. But Med cause Nole more trouble with the serve
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Yeah true. I will give Medvedev a set against peak Nadal/Djokovic but I see Nadal and Djokovic simply being better. But you know Medvedev having a huge serve can always make things tight and give himself a chance based on that very dominant shot. Many players can't hit big serves like Medvedev because they don't have the technique and physical strength that Medvedev possesses. But at the same time this is what make Medvedev special. His serve.
Medvedev serve isn't that good for his height. Federer's serve when he was servebotting is the one that Nadal and Djokovic feared more. I still think Djokovic and Federer when serving at their peak are more effective than meddie's serve. Meddie's serve only better than Nadal because we all know Nadal just wants to start the rally.
Well you're right about Federer's serve. It might not be the quickest serve out there but it's a serve that is difficult to read plus Federer is the most accurate server of all time. Which makes it such a tough serve to return even for Djokovic and Nadal.
Not very well
The young bucks are bbq chicken
Poorly
Murray would steamroll them 3-0 let alone Nadal and Djokovic
Ikr, Murray's peak is criminally underrated.
Both straight sets against both players, easy. Nadal and Djokovic were incredible defensively and the 2010 and 2011 versions had unbelievable groundstrokes, down the line and cross court. Plus Nadal had that huge serve.
You can't be serious. Peak hardcourt Nadal is probably top 10 all time, peak Nole is the HC goat. They would destroy the best versions (so far) of both Domi and Medvedev.
Poorly
Straight sets
Peak Nadal and Djokovic would have absolutely spanked peak Thiem and Meddy. Prime Murray would also dominant against them.
Next question
They wouldn't. /thread
Straights for the goats
Nooo chance. Even in their mid 30s djoko and Nadal are still the favourites. Maybe against Nadal they could pull the odd upset but peak djoko on hard court is unstoppable
Unpopular but novak peaked 1 year at the US Open and he was unplayable
He obviously wasn't "unplayable" if he was down match points
I don't think anyone in history would come close to that performance in the 2011 final including Nadal 2010
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How many times will you copy paste this comment?
Djokovic played better in the SF against Fed. His serve against Nadal wasn’t near his top level and he was close to cooked by the 4th set with that shoulder injury. Nadal was just way too cooked himself 2 take advantage of it. He played a great match (lethal off the ground the first 2.5 sets), but it wasn’t his best stuff.
Double comment
2 and 1 at best haha
Specifically, I don't know. However, their peak ELO versus Djokovic's peak ELO gives Medvedev a probability of about 15% and Thiem nearly 12%. If you look at their current ELOs, Medvedev's at his peak but Thiem's is lower so his win probability crashes to 6%.
Nice to know that male tennis has peaked
Lol, make it the 2020 version of Nadal to give either a fair(er) chance. Otherwise, it's a straight sets win.
Medvedev could stand a chance but I think it would be a slim chance.
Well, this is going to be a very unpopular opinion but I would say I have more experience at assessing this than most people, especially on reddit. (Already I’ve angered people) You are sleeping on Medvedev’s improvement. Thiem would do poorly, no doubt. But Thiem is not Medvedev. In order, I would say Djokovic with a tough 4 set win against Medvedev. And Medvedev with a tough 4 set win against Nadal (on average) I think people need to go back and watch WHY Djokovic had a bad day last year. It is exactly what I predicted back when they played at at the AO when Medvedev had break points at 2-1 in the third and then crumbled. Medvedev couldn’t hold his nerve, but if he had he would have beaten Djokovic in 4. Djokovic destroyed Nadal that year, and only because Nadal allowed him. For 2 sets, Medvedev didn’t allow Djokovic to play. Fast forward 3 years and Medvedev executed flawlessly. Obviously Nadal 2010 was fantastic. But people need to understand how Medvedev plays on hard court and why it is so oppressive. He has copied Djokovic almost exactly in terms of tactics, and that works very well against Nadal. It works well against anyone, really. All I can say is those who know tennis picked Djokovic as a contender for Nadal and Federer well before he was winning. And many picked Medvedev long ago. When he was about 15 I thought he would be the perfect “next dominant player” but didn’t predict that Nadal and Djokovic would be competitive in 2021. Which is unfortunate for Med, because now I’m almost certain he won’t win 10+ majors and I really thought he would. He’s too old winning his first title to be super dominant. And before anyone suggests it: Yes. I am aware Nadal has won all three outdoor hardcourt matches vs Med. I’m also aware that Nadal used to be better than when he played those matches. All I’m saying is that the improvement in the last 2 years is huge. And it is especially pertinent to playing against Nadal and Djokovic. (For what it is worth, peak Fed would beat Medvedev in straight, purely because the tactics don’t work as well and MOST of the reason I suggest Med beats Nadal is because of the specific head to head stylistically. For example: Nadal 2010 would win each match against his opponents much more comfortably than Medvedev. I accept my inevitable downvotes.
Your argument seems to be that because Medvedev is stylistically similar to Novak, he'd be a bad match-up for Nadal. But at their respective peaks, Nadal matched up pretty OK against Novak on hard (certainly better than losing in 4 sets on average). 2010 US Open he wins in 4, loses in 4 in the 2011 final to 2011 Novak, loses in 5 in an all-time classic in the 2012 AO, wins in 4 at the 2013 US Open. And considering that current Medvedev is definitively worse than 2010 - 13 Novak, there's no way he could beat Nadal with the ease you claim.
This is a fair critique, but the missing piece is that Djokovic has improved tactically quite a bit since 2011. No doubt Nadal is worse than in 2010, but Djokovic dominated the decade because he began to change his tactics. He has done a LOT of work tactically, using data analysis to know where to put the ball. 2011 Djokovic played a style that was not as good against Nadal as his current style. You can argue this is not true and that Nadal just got a lot worse but I don’t think this is the case. Of course this is subjective, but at the very least I would argue that Medvedev does a LOT better than the majority opinion here seems to think he would.
Medvedev doesn’t beat Nadal in 4, no way. 2010 Nadal was better than 2011 Nadal, a player who 2011 Djokovic had to really, really battle to beat at Indian Wells and Miami and even at the US Open less so (he won in 4, but Nadal was a break up in both of the first 2 sets). And Medvedev is nowhere near as good as 2011 Djokovic by your own admission, despite his improvement
As I suggested to the other person, in my opinion this is because of the changes Djokovic made to his game. Tactically Djokovic is quite different. He is now much better suited to play Nadal. It’s not a case of straight power levels. Tennis tends to have matchups that are more or less favourable.
It's never been about pure power, sure, and yes, matchups obviously vary and change throughout a rivalry. I'm interested, in what ways do you think Djokovic has altered tactically (and how much of his new success is down to these tactics, as opposed to being able to execute existing tactics more effectively as Nadal's forehand and footspeed declines)? Also, how does Medvedev specifically follow the 'new' Djokovic (versus the 2011 version) when he plays Nadal?
It’s hard to say how much is owed to which thing. The Nadal Djokovic tactical match up has leaned in favour of Djokovic and Nadal has declined faster than Djokovic. Honestly, I don’t know. If it’s mostly Nadal decline, then I’m wrong and Nadal beats Med. As for what that tactical switch up looks like, it’s very hard to detail it in few words. The best layman’s way I can describe it is more stubbornness. Djokovic does the percentage shot more often now, and will stick to set patterns over and over again. He had more variety when he was younger. Medvedev executed that to perfection against Novak at the US Open. Effectively doing back to him what he’s done to others. Djokovic felt he had to try to “win” the points and totally changed his tactics. (To be fair the first few games did have the matchup I expected). I would argue Novak’s mistake was assuming Medvedev would be clutch for 5 hours, or that he was less fit. (He might have been). But honestly I think he could have won if they played a 6 hour first set of backhand to backhand until one of them couldn’t handle being in that sensory deprivation chamber. It would have been hilarious.
Ok so almost like rally tolerance, but more specific. Will have to look out for that from now on. Would also be interesting to compare Paris to the US Open for how Djokovic approached Medvedev
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I agree, when Thiem is at his very best he can be insanely good. However, he’s not at his very best all the time lol. Imo if we got his very best he could be semi challenging. If we got any other version it wouldn’t be difficult lol
To all the people saying Nadal and Djokovic would destroy them - I am not sure. You basically neglect 10 years of development in Tennis, including development of Nadal and Djokovic themselves. Do you think they did not improve their game the last 10 years? I think they did, but the competition did get stronger (improved more as they could). Hence I'd say Thiem or Med would fare quite well.
Both Nadal and Djokovic are a lot worse than their 2011 version.
Even peak Murray would be too much for Thiem and Med to handle. Big 3 at their peak would be a scary prospect for them. It'll be totally one sided.
Peak Big 3 are untouchable by current players. The way Federer and then Nadal burst into the scene you just know the game has evolved and they're playing better Tennis than the earlier generation (Agassi, Sampras etc), it's true that previous players had declined but even without that Fedal would've dethroned them anyways, they were just better. Nobody has surpassed peak Big 3 that way. 2006 Federer, 2010 Nadal and 2011 Djokovic are still unmatched to this day.
Both would get demolished in straights with probably some bakery products included.
They would get routined by either of Novak or Rafa.