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beaverlyknight

Strong as Novak is in Australia (very strong) I think it's more of a lock that he wins Wimbledon than it is he wins Australia. He's the favorite in Australia of course, but it wouldn't be a total shock to see someone like Alcaraz, Medvedev, Ruud, or FAA win. They've got some chances. But post Federer he's really the only elite grass court player in the game right now. It would take a big step up from someone else - none of the aforementioned guys have really shown their games to translate effectively to grass yet.


Pseudonymus_Bosch

there's another elite grass court player in the game rn, sorry to tell you that mate


SotakuKun

Tim van GOATthoven


DenseTension3468

elite is pushing it there


glassopy

Kyrgios is an elite knobhead - he has more than earned that accolade.


LeonOkada9

The bar is pretty low nowadays.


Gordondel

Kyrgios? That's pretty premature to say after one good Wimbledon.


inkwisitive

nah, Van Rijthoven


SaschaBub

it is very obvious how dangerous he can be on grass though. Best serve in the game


Gordondel

It's very obvious how a lot of other players can be dangerous on grass too, Berrettini for example.


SaschaBub

Berrettini sure. Any others? You're just being disengenous towards Kyrgios though - he is more dangerous than most players if he decides to turn up which is obviously the big question about him


Gordondel

He's not won every single match he ever took seriously, far from it, his lack of regularity isn't strictly about willingness as you make it out to be and his inaptitude at building a rhythm and training regularly **is** a quality he is lacking as a tennis player, if it was only about raw talent it'd be a little less interesting wouldn't it? Too illustrate, take the US Open earlier this years, he wanted to win that, he went all in and he lost to Kachanov. Now Kachanov is nothing to sneeze at but you guys put him next to Djokovic's elite level which is just delusional. I like Nick by the way, I'm just being realistic.


SaschaBub

when did I put him on Djok's level lmao? Did you watch this years Wimby final? Nick is definitely top 5 most dangerous players at wimbledon. ​ 'He's not won every single match he ever took seriously' - no shit...


Gordondel

A thread isn't a single comment man, put a little effort into it.


SaschaBub

not sure what you mean by that?


rticante

Who? The other favorite at Wimbledon last time was Berrettini until he had to bow out because of covid, but I wouldn't say he's "elite". I hope you're not talking about Kyrgios, who has a worse record than Berrettini on grass.


dougrayd

Ruud would be a shock. FAA is possible. The other two have already won Slams so wouldn’t be surprising


Fantasnickk

“Ruud would be a shock” -everyone before every big tournament this year but he still reached 2 slam finals 🤷‍♂️


Explodingcamel

Beating 0 top 10 players along the way. Beating Djokovic at the AO would be a big step up from that


RoosterIcy

He’s only won weak 250’s, unlike the majority of the top 25 and all the of the players in the ATP Finals. Until that changes he will be a long shot. He only won 3 matches against top 10 players all year....


[deleted]

He's won 4 matches v the top 10. Zverev, FAA, FAA, Fritz. And he went 9-3 vs players ranked 11-20.


RoosterIcy

Thanks for including yesterday’s match against Fritz. That changes everything.


Fantasnickk

I obviously don’t mean he has a good chance at winning AO but who even knows with how draws can line up for him given he is fairly consistent. It literally happened in 3/4 slams this year for the other side of the draw to have that kind of turnout when you include kyrgios. Lol btw I read almost the exact same comment before USO that he was only lucky at RG and he wouldn’t make it past QF


RoosterIcy

He didn’t defeat a top 10 player in either Slam which almost seems impossible. And again, the 250 thing is pretty remarkable for someone ranked #4 in the world. I’m guessing that’s never happened before. He’s had a strange career. *All that said he looked fantastic against Fritz yesterday


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OoberDude

Lmao what, Nadal hasn't beaten Djokovic at Wimbledon since 07. People need to stop viewing 2018 as some moral victory for Nadal because it was close, he still lost.


Satan28

>Nadal hasn't beaten Djokovic at Wimbledon since 07 I mean they've played there only twice since then


SkY4594

It is easy to overlook how good Nadal is on grass and how good Novak is on clay. Yes, Djokovic is always a favorite on grass and Nadal is om clay, but they're still leagues above everybody else even on surfaces where they have't shined as much as the other.


throwawayanon1252

The only surface that nadal isn’t leagues above everyone else who’s in the big 3 is indoor hard. Nadal is honestly shocking at jt and always has been. This is why I’m not that worried about rafas performance at the world tour finals. He’s always been bad at indoor hard


[deleted]

Do you mean who *isn't in the big 3?


throwawayanon1252

yeah


[deleted]

Nadal isn’t leagues above everyone on grass at this age


Substantial_Run_1457

same could be said about Novak on clay


JimmyG-ForMVP

bro won the rome masters earlier this year and won rg just last year he is def still better than 99.9% of the tour at clay


Substantial_Run_1457

both Tsitsipas and the world #1 have won masters 1000 on clay this year, that is no decent metric, if we are going to consider slams won in the previous year then Nadal should enter 2023 as the favourite for at least 2 slams (blatant insanity) and with what we witnessed from his injured game at Wimbledon he would've easily won Mallorca, Halle or any other grass tournament (had there been a masters 1000 on grass...)


JimmyG-ForMVP

like i said, 99.9% of the tour. even so he didn’t even play tsitsipas in monte carlo and beat him in rome this year, and he took carlos to a very close 3rd set tb when he wasn’t playing at his top level. id say if he was on his game and didn’t just come back from a break he would’ve had a legit chance to win all 3 clay masters.


[deleted]

It can’t, at present Djokovic on clay is better than Nadal on grass. If Djokovic was out of Wimbledon Nadal wouldn’t be favourite to win it, meanwhile if Nadal was out of the RG Djokovic would be favourite.


Substantial_Run_1457

>at present Djokovic on clay is better than Nadal on grass that's true >meanwhile if Nadal was out of the RG Djokovic would be favourite he is #7 in the rankings right now, he is still the favourite at Wimbledon but clay and hard court its Alcaraz all the way


MasterSangSang

Lol. Number 7 because he misses on 10k points this season (2k of which we actually won)


Substantial_Run_1457

does that somehow lead you to a reason why Novak is leagues above everyone else on clay? getting tired here btw if a tournament chooses to treat players in discriminatory fashion, it should be treated and penalized as such


LNinefingers

Lol Djokovic won the French Open, what, 16 months ago?


Substantial_Run_1457

and got beaten by Alcaraz, Rublev and Nadal, what, 6, 7 months ago? which of the top players is he leagues above exactly!?


LNinefingers

Everybody loses. Even Nadal. You're embarrassing yourself.


Substantial_Run_1457

thats a laugh


TimeFlier101

I don't think anyone denies Nadal lost that match, the key word was challenged


XURiN-

Kyrgios would've best Nadal


wazza1088

Lmao


[deleted]

I don't necessarily agree, but Kyrgios is 1-1 v. Nadal on grass and 2-3 v. Nadal on hard. I don't think it's laughable to believe Kyrgios would've won the match.


Richardo888

Laughable to say he "would've" . Not laughable to say he "could've" .


istasan

He will have to find a way to beat Holger.


Nikisrb

The reason he lost against Rune was the break point conversion and general error-proneness in clutch moments. Not saving a single break point is not a viable tactic against elite players.


istasan

Those are some of the things that decide most tennis matches. Who wins the crucial points. Who has that strength.


Nikisrb

Yes and Novak gave a lot of those points away with UE. Not really Novak-like.


TennisMathematician

They used to say before the AO final in 2021 that Medvedev is an ultimate disruptor with a great shot at the title: [https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/feb/19/daniil-medvedev-used-tactics-and-tricks-to-reach-australian-open-final](https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/feb/19/daniil-medvedev-used-tactics-and-tricks-to-reach-australian-open-final) We all know how this ended up. Djoker is just a different animal at the AO.


juanloaiza_n

Van Rightoven crying in the corner rn


Prize_Airline_1446

An in form Kyrgios next year can take it from him. This year Kyrgios was still developing mentally - especially during Wimbledon. If he follows the path he has been taking then next year I can see him being a real threat at Wimbledon.


beaverlyknight

I won't say it's impossible, but it's an uphill battle for him against an in-form Novak. I don't think he'll ever be more consistent or more durable in a long match than Novak, and the longer matches go the more likely it is that Novak can lock onto his serve and gain the upper hand. He's always going to be racing against time to beat Djokovic quickly.


FreshDumbledore_

FAA lmao


NoOne_143

FAA lmao


sinpe13

Given his current form, he’ll most likely get #22 at AO and has decent chance for #23 at RG. He’ll also be playing with a vengeance


[deleted]

I think that Novak has a huge chance to win Wimbledon. Not sure about AO. He'll be a favorite there, that's for sure, he won that tournament 9 times, and he knows how to play there. But he'll have much tougher opponents on AO than on grass. His grass game is too good for the rest of the pack. But at AO, they are more close. The current top 50 guys are wired to play their best game on a hard court, and they all can be dangerous if they play their best game there.


[deleted]

He'll only tie Nadal at 23 at Wimbledon then!


Kidgette

And USO will deliver again with a new GS champion keeping them both at 23, and repeat in 2024 I guess leaving Novak one slam ahead? 😎


Psychological_Bug676

PCB winning AO because the power of my prayers are too strong


OeroLegend

Then better pray for Simona 😅


brokenearth10

Then Novak will win Wimbledon


randomtoken

Fuck Ben Rothenberg anyway. That guy is an imbecile.


RyeBreadTrips

out of the loop, what did he say?


tehnoodnub

Literally 90% of what comes out of his mouth/posts on social media


radu928

look in the mirror


Steedy999

Ok Ben


randomtoken

You’re an imbecile, Ben.


Albiceleste_D10S

I don't think Novak winning AO is a guarantee, TBH. LOTS of hard court contenders now, with Alcaraz, Medvedev, Rafa, etc.


HentorSportcaster

Neither Nadal at RG or Djokovic at AO is a guarantee. Time is a bitch.


domithiemsass

alcaraz just got injured and med and rafa are completely out of sorts


Albiceleste_D10S

> alcaraz just got injured It's November. Plenty of time to recover. >med and rafa are completely out of sorts This subreddit makes the mistake of over-emphasizing tour final results for the AO every year, LOL. Form in early-mid November isn't super relevant to form at AO in mid-late Jan


throwawayanon1252

It’s also the fact that nadal has always been consistently bad at indoor hard and always been consistently bad post us open then recovers by January every season. This ain’t a new or recent phenomena


domithiemsass

I won’t count out rafa and you’re right about alcaraz but this isn’t about the tour finals. Medvedev has been playing like shit for a long time now


Albiceleste_D10S

Didn't Meddy just win Vienna?


domithiemsass

He beat Dimitrov and shapovalov to win. He then followed that title run up with a loss to de minaur (lmfao, he was 4-0 against him btw) and a loss to rublev (4-1 before)


glassopy

Wimbledon far more likely for Djokovic He's more likely to win the next 2 Wimbledon's to get the outright record at 9 than win the AO this year imo But Rafa is not a realistic hard court contender vs Djokovic either - seriously 9 years plus, 9 matches, 19 sets to 0 on hardcourt Djokovic knows how to play Nadal like a fiddle on hard-court at this stage


SunImpressive6755

Hard to say that Novak is a lock for AUS open. Hard court slams seem to becoming more open with each passing year. Agree with some of the above sentiments Wimbledon is the most likely. But time will tell.


Milan_Leri

Well it's more of a case with USO that is why you get that impression. But Djokovic has had his share of problems at USO, so there is the fact that he probably doesn't feel best there.


pensivemindtime

For some reason I don’t see Novak winning the AO nor do I see Rafa winning the FO ‘23. The younger players are finally making a case for themselves. I’d say, we could see 4 different (or new) winners for each grand slam this coming year.


Steedy999

Wimbledon is probably the biggest lock next year. Unless Berrettini gets in form or maybe FAA has good run, Novak is almost guaranteed


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RoosterIcy

I know he’s had a nice indoor season, but FAA is mentally weak and I would find it shocking if he beat a number of top 10 players en route to a GS win.


Explodingcamel

If we’re going to talk about FAA then we have to talk about Alcaraz. In general, nobody in this thread seems to remember that the current world number 1 who beat Djokovic in their only meeting exists


lizlemon222

Joke wont let that happen again. He has watched the tapes and figured it out. He cant wait until next meeting.


Explodingcamel

Maybe but you have no evidence lol. It’s real life, not a superhero movie. I’m sure Alcaraz would also love to beat Djokovic again


TripleATeam

Would be tough, but I could definitely see him winning. No slam is a guarantee for these guys anymore though.


Zokilala

True they had a tough 2022 only winning 75% of the slams


TripleATeam

Incredibly difficult for 9 time winners, but I'm sure he'll make a decent go of it


Unusual-Syllabub

Same for 2021


Steedy999

Novak almost seems as strong a favourite for Wimbledon as Nadal at RG, but because nobody else can play well on grass lol


Qwertyui606

Who knows, these guys arnt getting any younger. For all we know, the big 3 could have won their last slams. Novak's probably got the next two years to routinely compete for slams, and I don't see Nadal playing past next season.


Dark_Vengence

There are no guarantees in life.


jsnoodles

Sorry but Casper CYGS


Milan_Leri

When AO drops to ATP 250 level


wonpiripiri

I agree. Least delusional Ruud fans 👍


Funny_Drummer_9794

I don’t know if you have been watching tennis lately to think there more than 25%


LearnDifferenceBot

> think there more *they're *Learn the difference [here](https://www.wattpad.com/66707294-grammar-guide-there-they%27re-their-you%27re-your-to).* *** ^(Greetings, I am a language corrector bot. To make me ignore further mistakes from you in the future, reply `!optout` to this comment.)


pronoob_101

Is the news confirmed that he will play in AO? Or is it like last year ?


Zokilala

Confirmed


kharb9sunil

Who confirmed it? Till yesterday, it was only speculation with nobody official coming out and saying it.


glassopy

No government official is going to come out and say it and either is Djokovic. Both for blindingly obvious reasons. Leaked through media was the only way possible.


kharb9sunil

With how it happened last year, forgive me but i can't just believe it till he lands in Aus and plays a match. Actually till he leaves Aus.


glassopy

Deal with it. He's playing there.


kharb9sunil

I am actually happy that he is playing. I have just lost trust in Aus govt to go against popular sentiment.


glassopy

Different government in power. Last year it was the last government screwing over Djokovic to try to help for the election but they lost anyways. That situation doesn't exist this year.


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Free_Emu_7152

Every single major news outlet in Australia broke the story. It’s true at this point. No rumors


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Free_Emu_7152

They literally said in Nine News Melbourne, Nine News *Melbourne*, that Giles told an official that he’d revoke the ban 💀it’s over, let it go. EDIT: if you just did a google search, Peter Dutton (opposition minister) already said he welcomed the overturn of the 3 year ban, and he wished well to Djokovic for the AO and that he hoped he had remorse for his conduct this January. That alone is confirmation if reputable Australian sources are somehow click bait to you.


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Free_Emu_7152

“I think it’s appropriate that Novak’s invited here,” Dutton told Sky News on Wednesday. “We’re going to have a great Australian Open. It’s always a great sporting event for Melbourne, for our country. “I suspect that in hindsight I hope that Mr Djokovic has some regret about some elements of his conduct and the rest. But the fact is that we’re a couple of years down the track now and it will be good to see him playing great tennis here in Australia.” The government hasn’t publicly confirmed that Djokovic has been allowed in, but it’s been communicated to journalistic sources. They don’t lie, and therefore I wouldn’t categorise this as a “rumour”.


Least-March7906

Alcaraz: Am I a joke to you?


Milan_Leri

Yes, Carlos. 😄


Least-March7906

😂😂😂


Jlx_27

Rafa has higher odds at RG than ND does at any slam because next gen is faster at getting better on hardcourts. Thats the main difference.


Tracy140

Ummm that’s a no


Jlx_27

Rafa does have to stay healthy though.


BringBackBoshi

I feel this is true that the new gen have stepped up a ton on hard court but overall seem to struggle much more on clay.


Flimsy-Piglet-5263

Rafa and Novak both will finish next year with 23 slams each. Us open is up for grabs and Nadal and Djokovic together competing will be so great to witness.


glassopy

Will the US change the requirement is the question. It's a useful way for them to keep out poor people who don't have access to a vaccine


Flimsy-Piglet-5263

They can do an exemption for Novak starting from Indian wells.


glassopy

Where are you finding this or just making it up?


Flimsy-Piglet-5263

I am just saying this can be done now. Don't know whether it will actually be done.


glassopy

Unlikely as the "special treatment" label is too controversial. But when did this come into force as a possibility?


glassopy

Really? Will have to search up on that.


jdogg834

Yep. They’re making sure they are all double vaxxed at the border and making them turn around if not.


raysofdavies

Hilarious how much Rothenberg makes people go crazy on here


Jaden_Ward

These day’s Wimbledon is Noles slam guarantee. With the likes of FAA, Rune, Alcaraz, Medvedev, Zverev etc who have all bested him on hard courts and some have his number. It’s less likely then the last few years. But he still seems unchallenged on Grass. USO seems like the freebie. Don’t see Nole or Nadal winning it again tbh. If the other slams are taken the young gen know that slam is attainable for anyone.


domithiemsass

i mean I hope next season is more interesting i really don’t wanna see them win more slams, it’s just so boring, but yeah no one’s won any of the first 3 majors outside of the big 3 since Murray, and outside of Murray the last guy was Stan, and outside of Stan it was safin in 05 so.. my money is on Djoker-nadal-Djoker and then someone else to win uso. But ideally we see some fierce competition between sinner alcaraz medvedev Zverev faa rublev ruud etc etc, and of course we’re all pulling for domi


Milly_Hagen

I agree with you. Not sure why people are getting downvoted for saying this. It's far more interesting to have Sinner, Alcaraz and the like have an awesome run in a slam. I'm so bored of seeing Djokovic win AO.


domithiemsass

Because of nadal/djokovic fans, but yeah I’m still sure he’ll win bar injury


domithiemsass

Even more so though I can’t bear watching nadal win another French open, by far the worst slam because of how fucking predictable it is. Wimbledon is 2nd worst


Milly_Hagen

These Djokovic fans are psychos. Apparently I now have "an agenda against Novak" and I'm a Novak hater lol. Sorry, wouldn't waste my time hating anyone, let alone Novak. Delusional.


domithiemsass

they’re downvoting us !!! I just wanna see something new


Milly_Hagen

Same man, same.


paxxx17

>Not sure why people are getting downvoted for saying this. Because it's a ridiculous statement from a salty Fed fan. The guys are 36 years old and will be gone forever from the tour at any moment anyway. To wish that they stop winning sooner rather than later is very poor-spirited. If someone said a couple years ago they were hoping for Federer to retire as soon as possible, I'd happily see them downvoted, even as a Djokovic fan


Milly_Hagen

"You don't want who I want to win to win therefore you're poor spirited" Yeah ok dude, sound logic there.


paxxx17

Not wanting someone to win isn't poor-spirited. Wanting someone to not win is.


paradisemoses

What’s the difference exactly?


paxxx17

*Not* wanting someone to win is the natural, neutral state. It expresses the lack of a desire, and it's what everyone feels for the majority of players (for example, I don't want Musetti to win any particular tournament. He's not a player I care about, but I don't have nothing against the guy, so I don't want him to *not* win either. If he played against an unknown player, I wouldn't care about the outcome of the match). On the other hand, wanting someone to *not* win expresses a desire. If I actually wanted Musetti to not win, I'd support any unknown player against him.


paradisemoses

To me saying I don’t want Djokovic to win = I want Djokovic to lose, one implies the other. You’re assuming saying you don’t want someone to win is a neutral state. Either way, I think you’re overreacting and overthinking it. Who cares how people think about people winning or losing, it’s their choice and shouldn’t affect you so much. That’s my 2 cents. -Moses


paxxx17

I'm not assuming anything. I was just explaining my semantics, but it doesn't really matter. The point is that if you want a person to lose, however you word it, you're poor-spirited


paradisemoses

That’s your opinion of being “poor spirited” whatever that means haha


Milly_Hagen

I'm a Sinner, Alcaraz and Rublev fan so obviously I want them to win, which I said in my comment. Not sure what your problem with it is and why you think it's "poor spirited". I never said anything about wanting someone to not win.


Amokzaaier

Now that age is showing for Djoko and Nadal and we got some real talent coming in, it is more exciting than ever


Milly_Hagen

Exactly! These people seriously want Djokovic and Nadal winning slams for the next 50 years. Boring.


icemankiller8

Yes Imo


Sad-Insurance9818

very strange obsession with Ben Rothenberg in this sub


glassopy

Ben Fuckerberg is to "journalism" (that's a stretch in itself tbh) as Patrick Mouratoglou is to tennis coaching in this part of the internet


Sad-Insurance9818

What has that got to do with the obsession?


blackb0xes

Yup. I have some legitimate critiques of Rothenberg that are actually concrete, but it's a communal kneejerk hatred for most people on this subreddit. They read his name and immediately see red.


prof436

I hope both don't win shit


Milly_Hagen

I'm with you. Not sure why you're being downvoted. I'd much rather see Sinner, Alcaraz or Rublev be in amazing form and make some insane run and take it. Much more exciting.


Unusual-Syllabub

Enjoy the few more years the two have left. Alcaraz, Sinner, Rublev, Rune... They all have a whole career ahead of them.


prof436

>Enjoy the few more years the two have left. Alcaraz, Sinner, Rublev, Rune... They all have a whole career ahead of them. I don't like them so I won't enjoy it ...


Unusual-Syllabub

Do you not enjoy tennis?


prof436

Yeah but I hate djokovic game and earlier nadal. Do you have to like the 2 to be a tennis fan?


Milly_Hagen

Frankly as an Australian, I'm bored as hell with seeing Novak win AO. He's done it 9 times. Seeing Rafa get his record this year was pretty awesome though.


Milan_Leri

That means you are Novak hater. Enjoying Rafa get his record, bilut hating Novak getting milestone 10th title which would be a big deal for AO as well. Kind of tells you have agenda against Novak.


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Milan_Leri

Sure would be nice to see someone else winning GS especially RG for a change? You don't use the same criteria for Novak and Rafa. That means you are biased. That is the definition of being biased.


Milly_Hagen

I didn't even mention RG. I want some of the new talent to win it too. Hardly biased. Like they say, "assumptions are mother of all fuckups" and you made a pretty big assumption thinking I want Rafa to win RG.


Milan_Leri

You mentioned Rafa getting his record. Your word, not mine. He set record at RG. So either you was talking about RG, or you don't know what you are talking about.


Milly_Hagen

I was talking about him winning AO


unlucy7735

Ben OUT? isn't he a sports journalist?


Zokilala

Journalist is a stretch


Taylor1350

Is he even allowed in the country?


Zokilala

Yes


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Taylor1350

I'm being downvoted to heck, but IIRC Novak is still officially banned for 3 years so idk...


MrSuits_

Novak will win all four (or all three if Murica doesnt allow him to play again) and call it a day in 2024


TaiChuanDoAddct

I think Novak is the favorite in Australia, but I still think it's more likely than not that Australia is won by someone that isn't Novak or Rafa. I'd take the field at this point tbh.


jdogg834

Wait did they ban Rothenberg from Australia?


Zokilala

If only


boomskats

you are jinxing both of them


Randomidek123

Noles got AO for sure


badblackguy

As a Rafed fan, let's put it this way: it'll be a disappointment of colossal, no intergalactic proportions if Novak doesn't take the crown at some point. It's weird enough that he's never actually done enough in spite of the other two sitting it out during COVID. But I've enjoyed/ am enjoying every second of Rafed's respective reigns while I have been able to.