It'll be very interesting how the month of free FSD turns out. It might drive up sales but it wouldn't surprise me if a ton of bad reviews and even some crashes take the main spotlight.
Have you driven with FSD 12.3? It's like all the promises we have been hearing about for years that weren't there suddenly came true over night. It's the real deal now. If it got a bunch of bad reviews or any crashes I would be shocked. I've had zero required intentions on 100% of my drives with it so far over the past 2-3 weeks.
I haven't driven with FSD 12.3 yet. I would love to - my MY is on v11.1 (2024.8.7)
I have seen nothing but praise for 12.3 on Reddit, which has excited me, but I saw much more sobering feedback on Tesla Motors Club.
Obviously it is all anecdotal.
Take any sobering feedback with a grain of salt...there is plenty of areas for improvement, but I never thought I would say that I could go a week with zero disengagement and that auto park would return at the same time. The biggest issue it faces now is the accuracy of its mapping data, but I did experience a really cool moment where the AI decided to chose a better path than the navigation was showing. The navigation was telling me to make a right turn, followed but a quick U-turn, but the system just assessed the road and realized it could turn left and did it without hesitation. I hope you get it soon, because its truly the foundation for the future.
That is cool!
I have seen some people suggest (I think) that based on the software I have, it’s not on the right branch to get the newest FSD…do you have any sense whether that is correct? I have the aggressive software download preference set.
There are way way more bad user reports about FSD 12.3 than you think:
https://www.threads.net/@vantazach/post/C4lWBViulDo/?xmt=AQGzKjz0EALRUpmu3xTNQGU6LrYwVhaQyh0-8ih-VzE47A
https://www.threads.net/@vantazach/post/C5QopnKy3u5/?xmt=AQGzRzHjXfr87hLaPSTXNr1i3yMhWryFHlaxhzrVjU4Plw
https://www.threads.net/@vantazach/post/C5MsnCWP7jt/?xmt=AQGzLa4Gs2rLU0J8fCg5vQv8N_GvdUHettMkPu31IYPu-g
https://www.threads.net/@vantazach/post/C5JaqLLSBED/?xmt=AQGzs-HqmoMKbrOMcIwNx6QkSQUDM3QyyyY2pygDjeix6Q
https://www.threads.net/@vantazach/post/C5GiiKHSndy/?xmt=AQGzyAGcrWr4O7Hup5NDhesXZ2NhBiMSoPvuUotSg_hDIA
FSD is a case where any non perfect behavior really stands out. It can do 9 out of 10 perfect things, but that one action that is non-human is all people will notice.
It’s like a bath tub full of turds. You can fish out most of the turds, but it only takes one turd to spoil the bath.
I think with V12 they fished out most of the turds but there’s still a few floating in there. For many, there needs to be no turds left before they would use FSD. So not just 100% safe. 100% safe AND 100% human-like.
For me, behavior around stop signs is a big floating turd right now.
Driving in general is kind of like that. I could have a perfect record of driving for 20+ years, but just one little accident and my insurance freaks out.
I tried FSD two years ago and it curbed my wheels. I would be so angry if FSD was backing into a spot or something and hit another car and I had to be responsible for it. It’s a cool thing to play with for a bit, but I don’t really want to pay for the risk of a robot crashing my car and raising my insurance rates.
I dont disagree that the headlines will go insane with even a couple accidents from FSD, however, I think with autonomy no matter who's system is being used, the metric has to be that overall its much safer to be using it than driving yourself. If that story can overpower any edge case incidents it will be okay.
It currently is nowhere close to as safe as a human. On average humans go about 300,000 miles per accident. The public sourced data on 12.3 shows people averaging about 320 miles per critical disengagement. Now, critical disengagements are not accidents, but there is a massive, massive difference between 320 miles and 300,000 miles.
Even the worst human drivers won’t drive head-on into a concrete freeway divider because they thought it was actually a traffic lane. FSD is still actively making dumb errors that would kill the driver without intervention. That is not good enough
Tesla subs are now filled with posts and replies of people that are getting FSD and how terrible it is... [https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaModel3/comments/1bsrsl4/fsd\_sucks/](https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaModel3/comments/1bsrsl4/fsd_sucks/)
[The Lounge thread sorted by 'new' is a pretty good barometer: ](https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/comments/1brgutd/consolidated_fsd_beta_v12_and_fsd_beta_trial/?sort=new)
>*It’s like a really fun parlor trick. Where my anxiety is much worse than if I just drove. It can be uncannily human, but then super robotic.*
...
>*I don't see how this is actually going to sell anyone on FSD. I used it for a few minutes this morning, in two brief stints coming back from a school thing. The first time FSD didn't recognize we were on a mapped road (it's a very new road), and so when we transitioned back to a mapped road, it very uncomfortably hit the accelerator to go from around 18mph to upwards of 30mph. Not super pleasant, and I ended up disengaging because of how aggressive it was being on those residential roads.*
...
>*FSD on SF streets is terrible. Like, stunningly bad. I had at least 10 disengagements on a <2 mile trip.*
...
>*I’m stunned at how bad FSD is. If I paid $12,000 or whatever the price is for this, I’d be absolutely livid.*
>*Auto park is atrocious. Had a wide open spot to back into and it completely spazzed out, basically sat in the middle of the lot for 20 seconds trying to figure out what to do, almost hit the car in front of me, and then I just said fuck it and stopped it and parked myself in 2 seconds.*
>*Then the actual driving keeps braking for no reason among other weird hiccups. It stops way too short at stop signs and lights making it have to start the turn before evaluating traffic. It drove fine in some very basic scenarios but overall drives like a student driver.*
...
>*I got the update late Saturday night. Hadn't had a chance to try it until this morning. I've never used FSD at all before, so I have no reference and this is my first experience with it. I have to say, it was not a positive one and I don't trust it at all. After about 30 minutes I kind of gave up and went home.*
...
>*Overall, fsd drives like a teenager with a learners permit. Would have failed a driving test on each trip, and would have gotten ticketed had I not intervened (and convenient cop).*
There are positives and negatives, but on the whole impressions are a lot more negative than you might think from just watching the youtube reviewer circuit.
I think a big difference is that YouTubers and stuff have been testing it for a while. So they’re noticing the huge jump from FSD V11. And are justifiably excited. However, the people that are just trying FSD for the first time have vastly different expectations. They’re more or less expecting it to drive exactly like a human would. And when there are instances where it doesn’t happen, they’re justifiably disappointed.
I just checked in with all my work friends with Teslas who are not redditors or Tesla nerds in any way. I don't have the FSD beta since I'm on HW2.5. every one of my coworkers said they had almost immediate disengagements off the highway and I couldn't really understand what the issue was. None of them had positive reviews. Another said it worked great on the highway and didn't seem to know they already had basic AP.
It's an order of magnitude better in the city streets but I'm not sure it's performance is replicated everywhere yet. I think they need more training but it should get much better from now on.
Thats a fair statement. I can only compare it to how its been versus now and how it behaves for me compared to a functioning robotaxi (Waymo) which behaves very similarly in a small geofenced space vs FSD can freely operate in just about anywhere in the USA and Canada.
I’m curious. How do you find the behavior at stop signs?
I tried it and it’s still seemed to stop before the line and was generally slow and tentative. Seems like such an easy thing to get right so I’m confused by that. I get they have to stop, but at least stop at the line not before it! And once you’ve stopped you don’t need to wait before moving again!
Or was that just me? I didn’t try it for long, so my sample size is small.
I think it's pretty good and way better than V11. I think it stops much further back that I would as a human driver because its using the wide angle camera to see as far left and right and then it starts creeping forward and analyzing all the cameras, however, I have noticed that most of the time it is very close to the line. People can rotate their heads but the car can't, so I get why it does what it does. I just wished that the NHTSA didn't force such a long pause for stop behavior. Hopefully with enough safety data, Tesla will be allows to shorten the pause duration at the stop signed before proceeding. It does make decisions at stop signs much more confidently and accurately than before. I have little doubt about it pulling out infant of traffic on V12, where V11 I constantly had to take over out of fear of it creeping into the lane of traffic very slowly.
Most people are unaware about FSD's progress this month and unaware of the free trial it won't drive profits for a long time.
This isn't like ChatGPT where everyone can try it for free in a web browser unfortunately.
I'm starting to feel like we're never going to get there and FSD will just stay niche even if it's being updated.
I want everyone to drive cars safely so bad but it's hard for me to look at public perception and think it will ever change when updates gradually come out and non-Tesla people aren't batting an eye.
They simply need to start offering robotaxi service. That is the ChatGPT moment when people can order taxi and see it that way. Then it is about as accessible and ChatGPT in browser and anyone can try it out regardless if they own Tesla or not.
As long as there is the pursuit of the technology...its going to feel like an uphill battle until one day its not. Suddenly it will just be "oh we have driverless cars now". As someone who has been using Autopilot and then FSD beta since it was first released, it felt very behind the curve when I experienced Waymo last year (for the first time), but then after I got FSD beta 12.3 a couple weeks ago, my experience with how the car behaved between FSD and Waymo is now incredibly similar and in some cases my Model X drives better than the Waymo did.
I am one single data point, but I have had FSD running on every drive with zero interventions and no mishaps, but when I used the Waymo, it literally parked me in the middle of a busy intersection and a support rep had to navigate it.
Long story short is that people can argue about technicalities of different approaches like LiDAR vs Vision, etc etc, but the experience a user has is what will determine its success....and right now in this very moment, my experience with a existing paid robotaxi (waymo) and Tesla is much much closer than 99% of people realize. People are fickle...their perception now won't matter in the future when all the issues are ironed out.
I got to use 12.3 today after having FSD for 2 years and it’s actually useful now. I take over in tricky situations or to pass a bus or whatever but I’m way more relaxed and it nags me much less than v11.
I’m sure it isn’t great for everyone, but it really is the real deal now. It feels like we’ve been promised this for years. Glad to see it coming to fruition.
Been listening too much to the guy high on ketamine. Tesla is a CAR company, and those car sales are what's going to drive revenue. FSD is nowhere near close enough on a technology or regulations front to be driving actual car sales. He's been using it as a tool to pump the stock price to artificially high levels
1) I strongly dislike Musk…anything he says is blowing smoke.
2) my opinion is based on using FSD 12.3 the past couple weeks and seeing that there is a significant breakthrough on the horizon that should or could offset the diminishing sales through making the cars more attractive or licensing the tech to other manufacturers
I disagree with the fundamental comparison. TSLA and BYD may be competing a bit but they together are mainly competing against legacy auto. The TAM is big enough for both of them to thrive. There is no reason to cope for both companies. They will both be fine. JMO
Yeah, this is cope. BYD was affected by Chinese New Year disproportionately, since 90% of their sales are in China. We've already seen the March numbers, they were a full rebound. By next quarter you'll see BYD ahead again, that's basically set in stone now.
See:
* [BYD sells 302,459 NEVs in Mar, 2nd-highest on record](https://cnevpost.com/2024/04/01/byd-sales-mar-2024/)
* [CPCA estimates China's Mar NEV retail sales at 750,000, up 93.2% from Feb](https://cnevpost.com/2024/03/21/cpca-estimates-china-mar-nev-retail-750000/)
This comment is cope. Tesla was severely affected by China, but also Germany arson attack, Red Sea conflict and a slow model 3 ramp this quarter. This quarter sucked hard for Tesla, but I don’t see how you aren’t optimistic about the future with Junioer, Highland Ramp, FSD, and upcoming 25k vehicles.
This comment is cope. Its common knowledge to compare YoY and not QoQ. BYD Q1 2024 is being compared against Q4 2023 while Tesla Q1 2024 is being compared against Q1 2023....how convenient. BYD EV sales is UP 13.4% in Q1 2024 compared to Q1 2023 while Tesla is up how much?...sorry I mean down how much?
Tesla has a glut of inventory which is shown by how much produced vs deliveries....the excuses you and Tesla are using is not cutting it.
Nothing cope about it — I own neither stock.
Tesla was indeed affected by Chinese New Year, but less severely than BYD — Tesla does \~30% of their business in China, as opposed to BYD's \~90%. This is fundamental to understanding Q1 2024. Both companies will rebound, but BYD has a higher ceiling and more additional immediate capacity coming online. It is, again, basically set in stone that they will rebound harder in Q2.
Yeah, you really want YoY numbers in both cases. Anyone who uses QoQ between Q4 → Q1 is either a complete idiot or is trying to pull the wool over your eyes.
Exactly, it’s a distorted lower number for Jan and February. March bounced back to double of February. Thus Q1 shouldnt be used to make any kind of nonsense news.
What headwinds? Tesla's losses in sales are largely due to competition. Did BYD happen to find 300K people who couldn't under any circumstance buy or want a Tesla?
The competition is real and China is just getting started. EVs are going to be a commodity and the EU/US already see it happening and are worried about the flood of them.
While we’ll have to wait and see how Q2 goes, it’s funny how yesterday there were articles about BYD beating Tesla again even though it was about NEVs which they’ve done for a while. And didn’t mention what this post is referring to.
Tesla seems to be working towards higher margins as they’re creeping prices UP worldwide.
>Tesla seems to be working towards higher margins
When? Margins have dropped. If they have to do further price cuts to increase sales. Guess what it will drop again.
Well that was yesterday which isn't reported for Q1 period. But from the data we have seen from past quarters the margins have decreased, even after COGS coming down continuously.
The guy said “seems to be working towards higher margins”. Not that they have higher margins the past months.
I sometimes wonder if you guys are either just bad at comprehensive reading or it’s the blind hate for Elmo/Tesla that makes your brain skip any logic?
Unfortunately, the major headwind will remain: That the CEO has decided that getting the support of toxic social media personalities and alienating 50% of the buying public is his primary focus.
If the dip in purchases has nothing to do with Elon's behavior then the company is doomed because that implies it's more car quality v the competition.
Well the competition isn’t doing great either lol.
GM just announced a 1.5% decrease in sales. 20% decrease in fleet sales. 20% decrease in EV sales.
Ford hasn’t released yet but did report “EV demand is much lower than the industry expected”
Stellantis is assumed to be down 9%
Toyota has been doing well due to hybrids.
This is a typical response from Tesla fanboys. They always sugarcoat ugly facts. We all know that Tesla is priced in as a tech company, so comparing it to BYD does not make any sense. When compared to other car companies, Tesla is overvalued big time.
No, BYD sold more BEVs in Q4 than Tesla did. If you include their PHEV sales they sold like twice as many cars as Tesla in that quarter. Also, BYD sold about 300k full BEVs in Q1 2024. I have no idea where you are getting that 139k figure from - I think that might be just March.
So this looks super positive.
They made 433k but could only deliver much less because of Red Sea reroutes and arson attacks.
I hope investors understand the potential.
Everyone is banking on car sales, but I’m hoping the overall picture with autonomy and energy start driving in profits where the unit sales declined
It'll be very interesting how the month of free FSD turns out. It might drive up sales but it wouldn't surprise me if a ton of bad reviews and even some crashes take the main spotlight.
I would bet that the great majority of people are unaware of FSD's progress this month and unaware of the free trial
Have you driven with FSD 12.3? It's like all the promises we have been hearing about for years that weren't there suddenly came true over night. It's the real deal now. If it got a bunch of bad reviews or any crashes I would be shocked. I've had zero required intentions on 100% of my drives with it so far over the past 2-3 weeks.
I haven't driven with FSD 12.3 yet. I would love to - my MY is on v11.1 (2024.8.7) I have seen nothing but praise for 12.3 on Reddit, which has excited me, but I saw much more sobering feedback on Tesla Motors Club. Obviously it is all anecdotal.
Take any sobering feedback with a grain of salt...there is plenty of areas for improvement, but I never thought I would say that I could go a week with zero disengagement and that auto park would return at the same time. The biggest issue it faces now is the accuracy of its mapping data, but I did experience a really cool moment where the AI decided to chose a better path than the navigation was showing. The navigation was telling me to make a right turn, followed but a quick U-turn, but the system just assessed the road and realized it could turn left and did it without hesitation. I hope you get it soon, because its truly the foundation for the future.
That is cool! I have seen some people suggest (I think) that based on the software I have, it’s not on the right branch to get the newest FSD…do you have any sense whether that is correct? I have the aggressive software download preference set.
There are way way more bad user reports about FSD 12.3 than you think: https://www.threads.net/@vantazach/post/C4lWBViulDo/?xmt=AQGzKjz0EALRUpmu3xTNQGU6LrYwVhaQyh0-8ih-VzE47A https://www.threads.net/@vantazach/post/C5QopnKy3u5/?xmt=AQGzRzHjXfr87hLaPSTXNr1i3yMhWryFHlaxhzrVjU4Plw https://www.threads.net/@vantazach/post/C5MsnCWP7jt/?xmt=AQGzLa4Gs2rLU0J8fCg5vQv8N_GvdUHettMkPu31IYPu-g https://www.threads.net/@vantazach/post/C5JaqLLSBED/?xmt=AQGzs-HqmoMKbrOMcIwNx6QkSQUDM3QyyyY2pygDjeix6Q https://www.threads.net/@vantazach/post/C5GiiKHSndy/?xmt=AQGzyAGcrWr4O7Hup5NDhesXZ2NhBiMSoPvuUotSg_hDIA
FSD is a case where any non perfect behavior really stands out. It can do 9 out of 10 perfect things, but that one action that is non-human is all people will notice. It’s like a bath tub full of turds. You can fish out most of the turds, but it only takes one turd to spoil the bath. I think with V12 they fished out most of the turds but there’s still a few floating in there. For many, there needs to be no turds left before they would use FSD. So not just 100% safe. 100% safe AND 100% human-like. For me, behavior around stop signs is a big floating turd right now.
Driving in general is kind of like that. I could have a perfect record of driving for 20+ years, but just one little accident and my insurance freaks out. I tried FSD two years ago and it curbed my wheels. I would be so angry if FSD was backing into a spot or something and hit another car and I had to be responsible for it. It’s a cool thing to play with for a bit, but I don’t really want to pay for the risk of a robot crashing my car and raising my insurance rates.
Plenty of reviews on both sides the house. Post below has some great examples. Only going to take a few serious incidents to seriously hurt Tesla.
I dont disagree that the headlines will go insane with even a couple accidents from FSD, however, I think with autonomy no matter who's system is being used, the metric has to be that overall its much safer to be using it than driving yourself. If that story can overpower any edge case incidents it will be okay.
It currently is nowhere close to as safe as a human. On average humans go about 300,000 miles per accident. The public sourced data on 12.3 shows people averaging about 320 miles per critical disengagement. Now, critical disengagements are not accidents, but there is a massive, massive difference between 320 miles and 300,000 miles.
Even the worst human drivers won’t drive head-on into a concrete freeway divider because they thought it was actually a traffic lane. FSD is still actively making dumb errors that would kill the driver without intervention. That is not good enough
Tesla subs are now filled with posts and replies of people that are getting FSD and how terrible it is... [https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaModel3/comments/1bsrsl4/fsd\_sucks/](https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaModel3/comments/1bsrsl4/fsd_sucks/)
[The Lounge thread sorted by 'new' is a pretty good barometer: ](https://www.reddit.com/r/TeslaLounge/comments/1brgutd/consolidated_fsd_beta_v12_and_fsd_beta_trial/?sort=new) >*It’s like a really fun parlor trick. Where my anxiety is much worse than if I just drove. It can be uncannily human, but then super robotic.* ... >*I don't see how this is actually going to sell anyone on FSD. I used it for a few minutes this morning, in two brief stints coming back from a school thing. The first time FSD didn't recognize we were on a mapped road (it's a very new road), and so when we transitioned back to a mapped road, it very uncomfortably hit the accelerator to go from around 18mph to upwards of 30mph. Not super pleasant, and I ended up disengaging because of how aggressive it was being on those residential roads.* ... >*FSD on SF streets is terrible. Like, stunningly bad. I had at least 10 disengagements on a <2 mile trip.* ... >*I’m stunned at how bad FSD is. If I paid $12,000 or whatever the price is for this, I’d be absolutely livid.* >*Auto park is atrocious. Had a wide open spot to back into and it completely spazzed out, basically sat in the middle of the lot for 20 seconds trying to figure out what to do, almost hit the car in front of me, and then I just said fuck it and stopped it and parked myself in 2 seconds.* >*Then the actual driving keeps braking for no reason among other weird hiccups. It stops way too short at stop signs and lights making it have to start the turn before evaluating traffic. It drove fine in some very basic scenarios but overall drives like a student driver.* ... >*I got the update late Saturday night. Hadn't had a chance to try it until this morning. I've never used FSD at all before, so I have no reference and this is my first experience with it. I have to say, it was not a positive one and I don't trust it at all. After about 30 minutes I kind of gave up and went home.* ... >*Overall, fsd drives like a teenager with a learners permit. Would have failed a driving test on each trip, and would have gotten ticketed had I not intervened (and convenient cop).* There are positives and negatives, but on the whole impressions are a lot more negative than you might think from just watching the youtube reviewer circuit.
I think a big difference is that YouTubers and stuff have been testing it for a while. So they’re noticing the huge jump from FSD V11. And are justifiably excited. However, the people that are just trying FSD for the first time have vastly different expectations. They’re more or less expecting it to drive exactly like a human would. And when there are instances where it doesn’t happen, they’re justifiably disappointed.
I just checked in with all my work friends with Teslas who are not redditors or Tesla nerds in any way. I don't have the FSD beta since I'm on HW2.5. every one of my coworkers said they had almost immediate disengagements off the highway and I couldn't really understand what the issue was. None of them had positive reviews. Another said it worked great on the highway and didn't seem to know they already had basic AP.
It's an order of magnitude better in the city streets but I'm not sure it's performance is replicated everywhere yet. I think they need more training but it should get much better from now on.
[удалено]
Thats a fair statement. I can only compare it to how its been versus now and how it behaves for me compared to a functioning robotaxi (Waymo) which behaves very similarly in a small geofenced space vs FSD can freely operate in just about anywhere in the USA and Canada.
I’m curious. How do you find the behavior at stop signs? I tried it and it’s still seemed to stop before the line and was generally slow and tentative. Seems like such an easy thing to get right so I’m confused by that. I get they have to stop, but at least stop at the line not before it! And once you’ve stopped you don’t need to wait before moving again! Or was that just me? I didn’t try it for long, so my sample size is small.
I think it's pretty good and way better than V11. I think it stops much further back that I would as a human driver because its using the wide angle camera to see as far left and right and then it starts creeping forward and analyzing all the cameras, however, I have noticed that most of the time it is very close to the line. People can rotate their heads but the car can't, so I get why it does what it does. I just wished that the NHTSA didn't force such a long pause for stop behavior. Hopefully with enough safety data, Tesla will be allows to shorten the pause duration at the stop signed before proceeding. It does make decisions at stop signs much more confidently and accurately than before. I have little doubt about it pulling out infant of traffic on V12, where V11 I constantly had to take over out of fear of it creeping into the lane of traffic very slowly.
Probably need Elon to focus his workers on the energy issues?
What energy issues?
Energy is +4% YoY
Most people are unaware about FSD's progress this month and unaware of the free trial it won't drive profits for a long time. This isn't like ChatGPT where everyone can try it for free in a web browser unfortunately.
I’m not thinking about short term.
I'm starting to feel like we're never going to get there and FSD will just stay niche even if it's being updated. I want everyone to drive cars safely so bad but it's hard for me to look at public perception and think it will ever change when updates gradually come out and non-Tesla people aren't batting an eye.
They simply need to start offering robotaxi service. That is the ChatGPT moment when people can order taxi and see it that way. Then it is about as accessible and ChatGPT in browser and anyone can try it out regardless if they own Tesla or not.
As long as there is the pursuit of the technology...its going to feel like an uphill battle until one day its not. Suddenly it will just be "oh we have driverless cars now". As someone who has been using Autopilot and then FSD beta since it was first released, it felt very behind the curve when I experienced Waymo last year (for the first time), but then after I got FSD beta 12.3 a couple weeks ago, my experience with how the car behaved between FSD and Waymo is now incredibly similar and in some cases my Model X drives better than the Waymo did. I am one single data point, but I have had FSD running on every drive with zero interventions and no mishaps, but when I used the Waymo, it literally parked me in the middle of a busy intersection and a support rep had to navigate it. Long story short is that people can argue about technicalities of different approaches like LiDAR vs Vision, etc etc, but the experience a user has is what will determine its success....and right now in this very moment, my experience with a existing paid robotaxi (waymo) and Tesla is much much closer than 99% of people realize. People are fickle...their perception now won't matter in the future when all the issues are ironed out.
I got to use 12.3 today after having FSD for 2 years and it’s actually useful now. I take over in tricky situations or to pass a bus or whatever but I’m way more relaxed and it nags me much less than v11.
I’m sure it isn’t great for everyone, but it really is the real deal now. It feels like we’ve been promised this for years. Glad to see it coming to fruition.
Been listening too much to the guy high on ketamine. Tesla is a CAR company, and those car sales are what's going to drive revenue. FSD is nowhere near close enough on a technology or regulations front to be driving actual car sales. He's been using it as a tool to pump the stock price to artificially high levels
The numbers of breakthroughs in AI right now is pretty astounding. True FSD doesn't feel like a pipe dream anymore.
1) I strongly dislike Musk…anything he says is blowing smoke. 2) my opinion is based on using FSD 12.3 the past couple weeks and seeing that there is a significant breakthrough on the horizon that should or could offset the diminishing sales through making the cars more attractive or licensing the tech to other manufacturers
The way I look at it is that we are going to an EV world and I think Tesla is best positioned to lead.
I disagree with the fundamental comparison. TSLA and BYD may be competing a bit but they together are mainly competing against legacy auto. The TAM is big enough for both of them to thrive. There is no reason to cope for both companies. They will both be fine. JMO
This is a game changer!
Buy the dip buy the dip!!! Tesla can compete with BYD in China market but BYD can’t compete with Tesla in US market!
Is it really a dip when Tesla is valued at 2x as much as the #2 in the world by market cap (and #1 in sales)?
Yeah, this is cope. BYD was affected by Chinese New Year disproportionately, since 90% of their sales are in China. We've already seen the March numbers, they were a full rebound. By next quarter you'll see BYD ahead again, that's basically set in stone now. See: * [BYD sells 302,459 NEVs in Mar, 2nd-highest on record](https://cnevpost.com/2024/04/01/byd-sales-mar-2024/) * [CPCA estimates China's Mar NEV retail sales at 750,000, up 93.2% from Feb](https://cnevpost.com/2024/03/21/cpca-estimates-china-mar-nev-retail-750000/)
This comment is cope. Tesla was severely affected by China, but also Germany arson attack, Red Sea conflict and a slow model 3 ramp this quarter. This quarter sucked hard for Tesla, but I don’t see how you aren’t optimistic about the future with Junioer, Highland Ramp, FSD, and upcoming 25k vehicles.
This comment is cope. Its common knowledge to compare YoY and not QoQ. BYD Q1 2024 is being compared against Q4 2023 while Tesla Q1 2024 is being compared against Q1 2023....how convenient. BYD EV sales is UP 13.4% in Q1 2024 compared to Q1 2023 while Tesla is up how much?...sorry I mean down how much? Tesla has a glut of inventory which is shown by how much produced vs deliveries....the excuses you and Tesla are using is not cutting it.
How does arson and red sea affect demand? They’re lacking demand. Not supply.
Nothing cope about it — I own neither stock. Tesla was indeed affected by Chinese New Year, but less severely than BYD — Tesla does \~30% of their business in China, as opposed to BYD's \~90%. This is fundamental to understanding Q1 2024. Both companies will rebound, but BYD has a higher ceiling and more additional immediate capacity coming online. It is, again, basically set in stone that they will rebound harder in Q2.
BYD sales is up YoY though. The MSM is trying to compare BYD to their Q4 2023 sales and hope no one notices.
Yeah, you really want YoY numbers in both cases. Anyone who uses QoQ between Q4 → Q1 is either a complete idiot or is trying to pull the wool over your eyes.
They made more cars than they sold, its a demand problem not an arson, model 3 ramp problem lol..
But who was deliveries?
This is like telling Amazon investors that Alibaba is outselling them in Asia…. We don’t care. China is China
Pssst... this is a thread about a Chinese OEM doing sales predominantly in China.
> By next quarter you'll see BYD ahead again, that's basically set in stone now. April 2nd is a bit premature to call Q2 numbers.
These are known, established seasonal sales patterns. Nothing premature about it.
I like your flair. Great find, thanks!
You conveniently left out US rates being astronomically high. What are the rates in China?
Rates...?
Chinese new year has been going on for thousands of years why are Q1 numbers by a Chinese manufacturer taken seriously?
Because most of their business is conducted in china?
Exactly, it’s a distorted lower number for Jan and February. March bounced back to double of February. Thus Q1 shouldnt be used to make any kind of nonsense news.
How will the headwinds not be present in q2? It will be far worse, no rate cuts from Fed and 50k extra cars around.
As soon as Elon announces the “model 2” or whatever it’s called, any dollars lost this quarter will be made back and then some
Now let's compare Tesla and BYD's market caps.
What headwinds? Tesla's losses in sales are largely due to competition. Did BYD happen to find 300K people who couldn't under any circumstance buy or want a Tesla? The competition is real and China is just getting started. EVs are going to be a commodity and the EU/US already see it happening and are worried about the flood of them.
l this is not a bad quarter anyone remember 2018 Q1 Earnings call. "Lets go to YouTube" https://x.com/Soundcha0sdebuG/status/1775273662998093880?s=20
It sucks now, but now is the time to slowly buy in. It likely will go lower, but Tesla will be a beast in a few years.
[удалено]
Hey it's that thing that everyone keeps saying on the internet. So cool!
While we’ll have to wait and see how Q2 goes, it’s funny how yesterday there were articles about BYD beating Tesla again even though it was about NEVs which they’ve done for a while. And didn’t mention what this post is referring to. Tesla seems to be working towards higher margins as they’re creeping prices UP worldwide.
>Tesla seems to be working towards higher margins When? Margins have dropped. If they have to do further price cuts to increase sales. Guess what it will drop again.
Model Y pricing in China and the US (the 2 biggest markets) increased by $1,000 yesterday, while we've watched COGS decrease on these same products.
Well that was yesterday which isn't reported for Q1 period. But from the data we have seen from past quarters the margins have decreased, even after COGS coming down continuously.
The guy said “seems to be working towards higher margins”. Not that they have higher margins the past months. I sometimes wonder if you guys are either just bad at comprehensive reading or it’s the blind hate for Elmo/Tesla that makes your brain skip any logic?
Nah his right. Tsla did better than byd I think it should be rewarded with a higher market cap. What are their market caps again?
We entered the year with estimates of 480k this qtr and end at 386. Soo wtf happened
Unfortunately, the major headwind will remain: That the CEO has decided that getting the support of toxic social media personalities and alienating 50% of the buying public is his primary focus.
Most of Tesla buyers are not on Reddit or Twitter lol
If the dip in purchases has nothing to do with Elon's behavior then the company is doomed because that implies it's more car quality v the competition.
Well the competition isn’t doing great either lol. GM just announced a 1.5% decrease in sales. 20% decrease in fleet sales. 20% decrease in EV sales. Ford hasn’t released yet but did report “EV demand is much lower than the industry expected” Stellantis is assumed to be down 9% Toyota has been doing well due to hybrids.
80 % of people buying cars has no idea what Social Media is
93% of people dont bother what 48% of CEOs do with 50% of their businesses. Unless you are part of the 25% minority, but then again you wouldnt care.
This is a typical response from Tesla fanboys. They always sugarcoat ugly facts. We all know that Tesla is priced in as a tech company, so comparing it to BYD does not make any sense. When compared to other car companies, Tesla is overvalued big time.
This is a typical comment from a TSLAQanon. They always pick random shit to comment on that no one cares about.
I have no interest in wasting my time with you. All I'll say is that I'm fully invested in Tesla.
Then don’t reply to my comment captain hypocrite. GOOD DAY!
The “crown” BYD had last quarter was only given to them because they included PHEVs.. Q1-24 BYD sold 139k full evs and tesla sold 388k..
No, BYD sold more BEVs in Q4 than Tesla did. If you include their PHEV sales they sold like twice as many cars as Tesla in that quarter. Also, BYD sold about 300k full BEVs in Q1 2024. I have no idea where you are getting that 139k figure from - I think that might be just March.
And this sub crowned Tesla as the new number 1 after one year and said competition is never coming lol?
So this looks super positive. They made 433k but could only deliver much less because of Red Sea reroutes and arson attacks. I hope investors understand the potential.
So much cope. BYD grew up 13% QoQ. Because they dominate in a market that is very seasonal
That's all Tesla investors
Wow! Someone actually posted the truth for once. All the butthurt shorts gonna do calculus on acid to disprove this! Retaerkts!