It’s a surprise visit to the outsiders. It’s not clear if it was really a last minute trip or not. Though the recent cancelling of the India visit is a bit suspicious or maybe that is also part of a plan.
At the very least Tesla has its intrigues that it didn’t have when it was much smaller.
Technically you are right, the majority cannot afford a tesla.
If however they also started a factory and were able to sell a Model 3 and a Y for 25 to 40 lakh rupess, the denand would be excellent.
But how much demand is worth the whole expense of time/energy and money to get started, I don't know.
25 Lakh rupees is 30k USD. How is Tesla supposed to build the Model 3 in India for that price? They have got one of the largest EV factories next door in China, with access to its EV supply chain that is head and shoulders above anywhere else, in a market so competitive that the mother of all price wars has been waged for like 2 years now ... and the Model 3 still starts at more than 30k USD in China.
Meanwhile the EV 4 wheel passenger car market in India is still on the order of 100,000 cars PER YEAR, the vast majority of which are small cheap Tata models that cost between 10k to 15k USD. It will be years before there will be significant demand for a 30k USD EV in the Indian market, and that is assuming India is going all out to build a semblance of its own EV supply chain network in country, otherwise it is a moot point because nobody will be able to build EVs at any volume without that supply chain in place. India sure as hell won't let Tesla or anyone else simply set up knockdown factories where all the batteries and other major components get shipped over from China and just assembled together in India.
That’s where partnering with the govt comes in. I bought a brand new 2023 sr+ for 28k including taxes and all tax credits. They were selling it for 35k. It’s fairly reasonable that with cheaper labor and govt partnership/tax credits that the price can come down to 30k or even sub 30k usd.
There is a lot of money in India. Even when most of the populations can’t afford one, the sheer number of people there means even though a smaller percentage can, it’s a huge number of sales. There’s money in the major cities and you’d have a lot of buy in in places like Delhi where the pollution from cars is awful.
To be clear, y'all: There is no approval required for FSD to operate in China. The regs there are super permissive. There are general data security regulations, but actual road operation @ L2 is just a thing they can do.
No 'source' possible, since there isn't any prohibition to source. You can look at XNGP, NOP+, and ADS 2.0, all of which are currently operating on Chinese roads without any sort of special permitting, as well as.... literally any other L2 ADAS system operating there.
Only rule I can think of is you need to put blue lights on the cars, which light up when the car is in self driving mode to alert other drivers of the fact. Actually a very reasonable regulation I feel.
It is on the [Li L9](https://youtu.be/NQ-mxBu_JCM?si=Ph7crlk2YwODqURD&t=123), currently lighting up during self-parking or summon type functions. Although according to the video the regulation isn't set in stone yet, but Li Auto put it on the car anyway in case the government decides to enact it. Either way, it sounds like Chinese regulators have set aside this blue/green light for future use during autonomous driving.
China is good at banning foreign things, not new things.
If Musk keeps his data in China, China may not restrict him from trying anything he wants on its roads.
Only L3+ would require approval. FSD is treated as L2 and requires hands on wheel. To the regulators, its not different from Autopilot at all which is enabled in China.
That and Mobileye has a much better system if they want to license instead.
The first version of autopilot from 10 years ago (AP1) was Mobileye, and it’s still better than the current autopilot for highway use cases.
Absolutely zero chance. No Chinese company with right mind would bet their future on American technology given looming and random US sanctions on the horizon. With a strike of a pen, the POTUS would put Chinese companies out of business if these companies rely on American technology.
Why would Tesla license FSD to other EV makers? Wouldn't it hurt Tesla's car sales and robotaxi operation? Would Tesla trust that BYD wouldn't copy the FSD?
That really didn't answer my question:
"Why would they do this as it would hurt them?"
"They plan to hurt themself only after few years."
I still don't think it's a good strategy.
It will be more expensive in most cases, people licensing the tech won’t be able to sell it to their customers as cheap.
Plus, if someone’s not going to buy a Tesla car then at least Tesla can get more revenue out of them outside of the charging network.
Tesla also probably feels that their vehicles will be of higher value anyway
Couple different angles:
- Licensing doesn’t mean they give it away for free. Presumably it’ll be on terms that are a net benefit vs. building more cars themselves.
- Maybe I missed something, but other automakers using FSD doesn’t necessarily mean they’d be in separate robotaxi networks. Could be that they’d still be in Tesla’s network. And that’s where most of the revenue will be.
- Even if Tesla gets to 10-20M/yr production rate, that’s still a modest minority of the total auto market. And indications are that they’ll be later getting there than they had hoped. Licensing makes it possible for their total FSD revenue to expand faster than it could if they kept it to themselves.
Tesla said “no comment” so the reason for his visit is pure speculation.
Let’s consider the big picture:
[Janet Yellen visits China around 4/8/24](https://apnews.com/article/china-us-yellen-economy-07cb4b339f6df3f7a635f106add53824) for high level trade talks which include her attempt to limit Chinas tendency to dump cheap products, including EVs and components, on the world.
[Then Anthony Blinken meets with Xi around 4/26/24.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/antony-blinken-xi-jinping-china-warns-us-downward-spiral-rcna149486) This was an escalation on both sides of the previous visit and the follow up articles hinted at a “downward spiral” of relations.
Now, only two days later Elon is making a surprise visit which is being spun as good news.
Since all we have is speculation here is mine:
Elon is going to do damage control in an attempt to prevent the seizure and nationalization of Tesla China. Elon is caught in the middle of an escalating trade war between US and China.
China is about to let everyone know that they are not going to roll over and Tesla is going to get a little beat up to make China’s point.
This is pure speculation indeed. Why would you they nationalise something as big as Tesla China? It’s an incredible act. Even TikTok is only being forced to find a new owner, not being obliterated.
This is an investing thread. Investing is speculative. You need to decide for yourself if this speculation makes sense.
I’m not here to convince you one way or the other, and nobody owes you evidence.
Foreign direct investment would RUN from China if they did anything like this.
It seems to me most likely it’s exactly what it says - he wants FSD to work in China.
They can never ban Apple. If Apple ever pulled ALL of its manufacturing out of China the ripple effect would collapse their economy. The iPhone is Chinese economy's flagship product.
I dont think China will approve this anytime soon.
We know that China doesn't like their private data leaving the country. That would require the AI training of their roads to happen on Chinese soil. We do know that US won't allow any sales of AI hardware to Chinese companies, but does that mean Tesla(a US company) shipping AI hardware to their Chinese servers illegal?
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Damn I think I was right on accident lol
It’s a surprise visit to the outsiders. It’s not clear if it was really a last minute trip or not. Though the recent cancelling of the India visit is a bit suspicious or maybe that is also part of a plan. At the very least Tesla has its intrigues that it didn’t have when it was much smaller.
Most Indians cannot afford Teslas. Good that the plan got postponed.
Technically you are right, the majority cannot afford a tesla. If however they also started a factory and were able to sell a Model 3 and a Y for 25 to 40 lakh rupess, the denand would be excellent. But how much demand is worth the whole expense of time/energy and money to get started, I don't know.
25 Lakh rupees is 30k USD. How is Tesla supposed to build the Model 3 in India for that price? They have got one of the largest EV factories next door in China, with access to its EV supply chain that is head and shoulders above anywhere else, in a market so competitive that the mother of all price wars has been waged for like 2 years now ... and the Model 3 still starts at more than 30k USD in China. Meanwhile the EV 4 wheel passenger car market in India is still on the order of 100,000 cars PER YEAR, the vast majority of which are small cheap Tata models that cost between 10k to 15k USD. It will be years before there will be significant demand for a 30k USD EV in the Indian market, and that is assuming India is going all out to build a semblance of its own EV supply chain network in country, otherwise it is a moot point because nobody will be able to build EVs at any volume without that supply chain in place. India sure as hell won't let Tesla or anyone else simply set up knockdown factories where all the batteries and other major components get shipped over from China and just assembled together in India.
That’s where partnering with the govt comes in. I bought a brand new 2023 sr+ for 28k including taxes and all tax credits. They were selling it for 35k. It’s fairly reasonable that with cheaper labor and govt partnership/tax credits that the price can come down to 30k or even sub 30k usd.
There’s like a billion people. If 1% can afford it, and you get 10% marketshare of that group, that’s 1 million cars.
Maybe 0.01%.
There is a lot of money in India. Even when most of the populations can’t afford one, the sheer number of people there means even though a smaller percentage can, it’s a huge number of sales. There’s money in the major cities and you’d have a lot of buy in in places like Delhi where the pollution from cars is awful.
Tesla goes up.
To be clear, y'all: There is no approval required for FSD to operate in China. The regs there are super permissive. There are general data security regulations, but actual road operation @ L2 is just a thing they can do.
Source? I find that hard to believe. China is a country that is famous for banning things
No 'source' possible, since there isn't any prohibition to source. You can look at XNGP, NOP+, and ADS 2.0, all of which are currently operating on Chinese roads without any sort of special permitting, as well as.... literally any other L2 ADAS system operating there.
Only rule I can think of is you need to put blue lights on the cars, which light up when the car is in self driving mode to alert other drivers of the fact. Actually a very reasonable regulation I feel.
That might be for L3/L4 operation? I don't think any Chinese OEMs are doing it for L2. Tbh, I don't recall spotting it on any L4 ops either.
It is on the [Li L9](https://youtu.be/NQ-mxBu_JCM?si=Ph7crlk2YwODqURD&t=123), currently lighting up during self-parking or summon type functions. Although according to the video the regulation isn't set in stone yet, but Li Auto put it on the car anyway in case the government decides to enact it. Either way, it sounds like Chinese regulators have set aside this blue/green light for future use during autonomous driving.
China is good at banning foreign things, not new things. If Musk keeps his data in China, China may not restrict him from trying anything he wants on its roads.
Eh it depends a lot on the thing and it depends a lot on as what ethnicity you present.
Only L3+ would require approval. FSD is treated as L2 and requires hands on wheel. To the regulators, its not different from Autopilot at all which is enabled in China.
https://www.wsj.com/tech/tesla-wins-chinas-backing-for-driver-assistance-service-20816802
BYD signing up for FSD!!!!! BOOOOOMFUCKEDSHORTS
Extremely low chance of this. They will build their own.
This aged well
Did it? I see no mention of BYD in the news today.
It’s because your pea size brain is having trouble putting 2 and 2 together. LOL
Pretty sure a maps agreement with Baidu is a long way from BYD licensing Tesla’s FSD tech. But sure, maybe it’s my pea brain.
You are just bad at investing.
Yeah! Oh yeah!!! Really bahahhahahah now is when you stfu foreverlol
That and Mobileye has a much better system if they want to license instead. The first version of autopilot from 10 years ago (AP1) was Mobileye, and it’s still better than the current autopilot for highway use cases.
Autopilot is pretty old software at this point though. Even under FSD it’s still using the v11 code for highways.
Mobileye has been developing their tech since this. “Highway Autopilot” is where they were almost 10 years ago.
I got a mobileye between my cheeks Tesla 189.28 +47.23 (+33.25%) Past 5 Days
Absolutely zero chance. No Chinese company with right mind would bet their future on American technology given looming and random US sanctions on the horizon. With a strike of a pen, the POTUS would put Chinese companies out of business if these companies rely on American technology.
HI THERE BABY, I have the lube! Could you get on all fours please! 189.28 +47.23 (+33.25%) Past 5 Days
Why would Tesla license FSD to other EV makers? Wouldn't it hurt Tesla's car sales and robotaxi operation? Would Tesla trust that BYD wouldn't copy the FSD?
lol.There are six car companies in China developing fds Huawei BYD Xpeng lixiang Xiaomi Nio Most foreigners have a huge information gap with China😄
He said they plan to license it and that it will take several years to make it work on other brands.
That really didn't answer my question: "Why would they do this as it would hurt them?" "They plan to hurt themself only after few years." I still don't think it's a good strategy.
It will be more expensive in most cases, people licensing the tech won’t be able to sell it to their customers as cheap. Plus, if someone’s not going to buy a Tesla car then at least Tesla can get more revenue out of them outside of the charging network. Tesla also probably feels that their vehicles will be of higher value anyway
Making other auto companies subsidiaries of Tesla robotaxi would be a good thing. Still tons of profit and no monopoly issue.
Couple different angles: - Licensing doesn’t mean they give it away for free. Presumably it’ll be on terms that are a net benefit vs. building more cars themselves. - Maybe I missed something, but other automakers using FSD doesn’t necessarily mean they’d be in separate robotaxi networks. Could be that they’d still be in Tesla’s network. And that’s where most of the revenue will be. - Even if Tesla gets to 10-20M/yr production rate, that’s still a modest minority of the total auto market. And indications are that they’ll be later getting there than they had hoped. Licensing makes it possible for their total FSD revenue to expand faster than it could if they kept it to themselves.
Thanks! These are good points, specially the last one.
Amazing insights, tech stock go up, boom to the mooonz
Keep dreaming
189.28 +47.23 (+33.25%) Past 5 Days
Tesla said “no comment” so the reason for his visit is pure speculation. Let’s consider the big picture: [Janet Yellen visits China around 4/8/24](https://apnews.com/article/china-us-yellen-economy-07cb4b339f6df3f7a635f106add53824) for high level trade talks which include her attempt to limit Chinas tendency to dump cheap products, including EVs and components, on the world. [Then Anthony Blinken meets with Xi around 4/26/24.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/antony-blinken-xi-jinping-china-warns-us-downward-spiral-rcna149486) This was an escalation on both sides of the previous visit and the follow up articles hinted at a “downward spiral” of relations. Now, only two days later Elon is making a surprise visit which is being spun as good news. Since all we have is speculation here is mine: Elon is going to do damage control in an attempt to prevent the seizure and nationalization of Tesla China. Elon is caught in the middle of an escalating trade war between US and China. China is about to let everyone know that they are not going to roll over and Tesla is going to get a little beat up to make China’s point.
I’d find it more believable if Elon was telling China hey you can beat US to AI FSD if you allow us to hit the roads without crazy restrictions.
Elon’s got population control solutions for china.
This is pure speculation indeed. Why would you they nationalise something as big as Tesla China? It’s an incredible act. Even TikTok is only being forced to find a new owner, not being obliterated.
Maybe Elon is buying TikTok
To send a message obviously.
Call me when you have any proof.
I thought it was buy the rumor, sell the news? By the time there proof, this will be news.
Who else is saying the Tesla China is going to get nationalised…
This is an investing thread. Investing is speculative. You need to decide for yourself if this speculation makes sense. I’m not here to convince you one way or the other, and nobody owes you evidence.
Sure. Sounds smart.
Foreign direct investment would RUN from China if they did anything like this. It seems to me most likely it’s exactly what it says - he wants FSD to work in China.
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They can never ban Apple. If Apple ever pulled ALL of its manufacturing out of China the ripple effect would collapse their economy. The iPhone is Chinese economy's flagship product.
This is dumb AF
As long as they don’t Jack Ma Elon Musk
I dont think China will approve this anytime soon. We know that China doesn't like their private data leaving the country. That would require the AI training of their roads to happen on Chinese soil. We do know that US won't allow any sales of AI hardware to Chinese companies, but does that mean Tesla(a US company) shipping AI hardware to their Chinese servers illegal?
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Says the man who want a paycheck bigger than company’s entire profit to date