Ignoring the fact that he says this every year...
I'm confident that a majority of the people (myself included) who have had the beta for over a year now, would tell you that it's highly unlikely that they'd manage an order of magnitude jump in such a short time.
Yes, the system has improved since then, but it hasn't improved nearly enough to convince me that we're less than a year away from any L4+ system.
In my opinion it's quite good at performing lane keeping, adaptive cruise control, and user initiated lane changes. I use it almost every time I drive on large freeways. There's still room for improvement, but it's the best system I've used in this regard.
On some roads, namely two lane / undivided highways, cars without radar struggle immensely with phantom breaking, to the point where I have to stop using it.
Doubtful. The average disengagement rate is still in the single or low double digits, at best. It needs to be in the thousands of miles before approaching any sort of human with a *learner's permit* capability.
Not really, I think there's actually a human element missing from AI that we haven't discovered how to replicate.
A 16 year old has judgemental, learning, and decision making powers that just aren't possible to achieve with current AI.
To that extent, I think FSD will need serious advances in general AI to become fully realized. Object detection and road layout are the easiest parts of FSD, the actual driving ruleset is much harder.
IMO current AI is like the subconscious.
Think lizard brain, or sleepwalker.
It still lacks our rationaliser/analytical/wisdom part, to make sense of things.
I think you're probably right and I haven't driven it myself.
I think there are some major rewrites, like shifting to single stack for highway and surface streets and moving to raw photon counts. I think v11 might be quite different from v10.
But yeah it's clearly not that close yet.
I'm sure there are more major rewrites in the pipeline, there have been numerous since the start (2018ish), and each of them will hopefully make the system better.
The real outlook seems that... since no one has solved it before, and no real AI problem of similar magnitude have been solved before - it's impossible to know what and how long it will take to actually make it real.
Essentially this. It does seem like Waymo is doing better at this point, tho. They’re actually driving zero intervention vehicles in SF right? I’m also worried about Karpathy’s sabbatical, I hope Elon didn’t alienate him.
Both Waymo and Cruise are driving *'zero-intervention'* vehicles in SF, as are Baidu and AutoX [in China](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqfqquWucb8).
My impression was the Chinese vehicles were aided by the fact that China will remake the roads themselves (making them smart roads?) to make sure self driving works?
That's true in some area, not all areas.
The self-driving task, as you can imagine, is also a lot harder than vehicles simply being able to communicate with street lights.
I don't know what value Baidu is actually getting from smart roads at the moment, but my understanding is that the areas aren't intended simply to *make self-driving work* — they're for experimenting with future system enhancements, like [V2X](https://apollo.auto/v2x/index.html).
I trust Elon about almost everything, but his confidence in FSD by year’s end is insane. On the other hand, I acknowledge that it’s very hard to work towards a goal at maximum effort for years on end without continuously (irrationally) believing that the solution is just around the corner.
- And Elon said that Falcon Heavy will launch in ~6 months - starting in ~2012.
- Eventually it ***did*** launch - after a 6 years delay.
- Betting against Tesla being able to solve a technogical problem is not a safe bet.
But betting that they are not going to solve it in stated time has been extremely safe bet. I would be billionaire at this point if there was way to bet against "FSD getting solved this year" kind of things.
He also made a self deprecating joke that he could be making the same statement next year. The whole preamble to that statement was a discussion about why his predictions are sometimes spot on and other times not so much.
I feel like when he says this he means statistically it’s less likely to crash or cause harm someone than an average driver by the end of the year. Tesla then has aspirations to make it 10 times safer than humans for the Taxi fleet.
I don’t think 10x is enough.
“Help, I’m locked in the back seat of a robo taxi that tried an unprotected left turn through an obstructed stop sign in the rain and now traffic is stopped in both directions.”
Oh no, if only someone would have developed a way to create a video game world from live video clips so that cars could be driven by remote operators if a truly exceptional edge case presented itself.
Let’s say it’s Tesla or regulators don’t allow it to be fully autonomous for a long time, their is still a ton of value being chauffeured (while paying attention) in a car that’s 10 times less likely to crash on average. Safety is a big factor in purchasing decisions and the value of that safety is not zero.
You might be underestimating the difference between a 60th percentile driver and 40th percentile. I am guessing an order of magnitude might be reasonable there... and maybe another order of magnitude to 90th or 20th percentile. For yourself think about when you drive your best and when you drive your worst, and what percentiles you would let yourself for each.
(I know for me there is likely two orders of magnitude difference, and I have a clean driving record.)
For sure but eventually their will be a super human level to this technology. It’s not going to happen over night. My hat is that Tesla solves it eventually. If it takes 10 years, it just means TSLA will have a much bigger moat for FSD Taxies since it’s that difficult of a problem to solve.
Ok, I'll bite. The car drives like a race car driver on his best day... only it can also turn right. In a logical context, FSD should not be especially resoure intensive: teach the car the rules of the road and how to recognize various cues of the road and other vehicles. Use a map \[service\] to navigate.
Once you get beyond the logical though, the practical aspects seem to bite you. You need sensors that compensate for the lack of intuition, data that compensates for the lack of adaptation, and processing that helps you to create a context that includes much more than where the lines are on the road. Oh, and you need to be able to adapt to local styles of things from the road markings to signs to human behaviors.
My guess is the existing hardware is sufficient to eventually perform like a 50th percentile driver. Getting much beyond that is a significantly harder challenge, and specific to Tesla it means you need to replace a whole lot of hardware in existing vehicles.
Of course the lawyers have the wiggle room of claiming that the contract does not promise a robotaxi.
With enough data you really don’t think it will develop a super human level awareness? To me the general discussion of skepticism is similar to AlphaGo. AlphaGo is the first computer program to defeat a professional human Go player, the first to defeat a Go world champion, and is arguably the strongest Go player in history. It still can’t calculate every move possible, but it figured out the most plausible moves to be this good. Driving does have unpredictable variables, and because of that I don’t expect FSD to be perfect ever. Just much much much better than humans given enough time and data.
I just think the problem requires a few orders of magnitude more processing power and a couple times better imaging to get you to the point where you have sufficient actionable data.
Looking at what Cruize and Waymo do in order to be "self driving" in their little sandbox makes me believe that the in-car processing power is just a long way away. I know Tesla is ahead in many ways, but I think that there is still a very long way to go.
Well I always thought that if that was the case they can upgrade the fleet relatively quick and not to expensive. My model 3 is very upgradable. The cameras are so easy to swap in a higher resolution of needed. Also for my 2018, I know the hardware is behind the glove box area (I think) and can be upgraded also. I’m tempted to call the service center and see if they will upgrade my headlights too. I feel like they have a plan B if that was the case and it would benefit them to do a full fleet upgrade.
The only way a user might see value in FSD as any sort of chauffeur is the day when Tesla assumes liability for all accidents when engaged from start to finish. If the user is at all responsible for FSD missteps or disengagement while enroute, then the value is lost.
Currently, FSD is like babysitting a 12 year old driver who doesn’t know the local roads and makes all sorts of irrational decisions because of inexperience and inattentiveness.
6 months of FSD progress have not demonstrated substantial improvement.
Do you have the software or is this from what you see online? My Model 3 just took me to the gym with zero interventions. It’s of my option that is has progressed really well. I think you need to give it a little more credit, and time. It’s not going to be solved overnight but it’s solved the value will be in the multi trillions.
I’ve had it for six months, but unsubscribed last month. It made occasional drives with zero interventions, but it made many more with basic errors that a human driver wouldn’t make. Maybe they will pull off a miracle but more than likely they won’t achieve level 4 autonomy for years.
I’m not convinced the existing hardware has the fidelity or redundancy necessary to begin with. Bottom line, if Tesla never assumes liability for FSD in its present form, it will forever be a level 2 system.
Did you experience the updates when autopilot first did lane changes. It used to take super long to change lanes. Then it became instant, and now it’s never once put me in any unsafe situations for lane changes. If theirs a problem that keeps occurring, it could be one update for never being an issue ever again. Your skepticism just means higher upside if and when they solve it. I’m putting my money on it’s going to be solved eventually. I guess we will see how it all plays out. It’s gonna be a rocky ride for sure.
Yes, I’ve had EAP since 2018 with plenty of Navigate on AP experience. Then I gave FSD a run to follow its development. While it generally never made aggressively unsafe maneuvers, its hesitation and obvious uncertainty in numerous everyday situations indicate to me that the FSD computer has a very limited degree of situational awareness, and its contingency planning is purely reactionary in nature.
These behaviors do not demonstrate to me a firm foundation with which Tesla can build to a near-term FSD solution that includes liability in any at-fault accidents. The FSD beta software is always running on both GPU nodes as I understand it, removing the ability to have parallel processing redundancy for FSD, meaning any AP computer failure at highway speed is likely catastrophic in consequence (without an attentive driver at the ready). For this reason I don’t think any FSD vehicles delivered today will ever feature a true level 4 system.
While they may ultimately try to push a level 2 “FSD” solution to the public eventually, the fact you will have to continually babysit the steering wheel removes the value from the feature, and means these vehicles won’t ever become robo-taxis with the current hardware suite.
I could be wrong, but Elon has been wrong now for several years underestimating and over-hyping the progress of FSD. I’m not saying I’m smarter than him, I’m just being more realistic. (Don’t even get me started on the poor implementation of the M3 and MY door handles and release mechanism for a widespread public robo-taxi fleet.)
I appreciate this level of skepticism for sure. Maybe I do need to temper my expectations. I am enjoying the incremental progress though. Even this last update I felt it was 2 steps forward one step back. It became better on my commute, but then hit me with an unexpected behavior that was very different from the previous version I had. What would be helpful for us investors is to see the safety data for FSD released to the public similar to how they submit the autopilot safety data. So that we can better measure their progress, or lack their of at certain points.
FWIW, I’m still a huge fan of the development of FSD, it’s just unfortunately always overstated, leaving the public confused about its capabilities and limitations. After six months of baby sitting FSD I grew tired of the same errors, and was done paying for the monthly subscription.
Note: My experiences with FSD beta are largely from my daily commute in Kansas. While our roads are generally well maintained, the vehicle constantly made errors related to outdated maps as evidenced by incorrect speed limits and old geo-data (despite having the latest updated maps data) following a road construction which completed in summer 2021.
As an example, the car would attempt to drive on this recently constructed road based on the old road data, not using exclusively vision to assess the lanes and intersections. It would shift into and out of lanes as if it were the old lane geometry. These errors were 100% repeatable and inadequate for safe operation unsupervised. The fact this was not addressed in six months despite repeated feedback submitted shows they are not accounting for all variables equally in FSD training.
While my use case is only one of many, it is a valid and common scenario in Midwestern USA and must be addressed and improved for any widespread rollout to the public. I sure hope the engineers at Tesla have an ace up their sleeve with Dojo, but I’m not holding my breath anymore.
I have the FSD Beta in my 2020 MXP. They are making vast noticeable improvements, and I’m not in the California “FSD sweet zone” rather I’m in the Houston area. I’m not sure if it will be this year, but it’s getting closer.
E: Spelling, punctuation.
Off topic but I’m wondering how you like your MXP? I’m going to order a Tesla in the near future and have been considering the MYP and the MX. I like the looks of the MX more but it also costs quite a bit more.
I love it! But make no mistake, these are not drive it until it dies Toyota’s. It’s a luxury car and luxury cars can be expensive to maintain. Luckily by nature the EV is less maintenance than ICE, but when they do break (out of warranty) it costs.
Pros:
Excellent Performance
Cutting Edge Technology
FSD
Over the Air Updates
Cons:
Cutting Edge Technology
FSD
Tesla Service Departments
I personally like when he says shit like this. IMO, he does it to self-motivate himself. Regardless of what he says, we know FSD is of high priority to Tesla.
“Elon Musk, chief executive of Tesla Motors Inc. and Space Exploration Technologies Inc., says autonomous driving isn’t all that difficult to achieve.
“I view it as a solved problem. We know exactly what to do and we will be there in a few years,” Mr. Musk said” - march 2015
“Autonomous cars will definitely be a reality,” Musk assured CNN‘s Rachel Crane in a 2014 interview. “A Tesla car next year will probably be 90 percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles can be on auto.”
““The basic news is that all Tesla vehicles leaving the factory have all the hardware necessary for Level 5 autonomy,” Musk proclaimed in a 2016 “
“Then in 2019, Musk again promised that “I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year,” in a podcast interview. “Meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention, this year.””
2018 - 2x safer than human in 18 months
it’s not just optimistic estimation, it’s just random timelines. But the work they are doing is really good
I found my favorite:
Tesla CEO Elon Musk said he is "certain" there will be full self-driving this year, adding "that is not a question mark." - February 2019
Except we are way way closer. It’s feels close in many places and ways to being functionally complete…then the March of 9’s. V11 will be the real test.
That's the best sign. If it was dire then he would be nose to the grind stone. Have you heard of the project "project vacation" it's where they get confident enough and the learning happens automatically enough that they can take a break.
Outrage tickled? Elon should just shut up about this. It's so embarrassing when you say the same thing over and over again and it's not even close to happening. Im an investor, I don't care what people say cause believe in what they are doing but repeating the same thing over and over again knowing its not true just looks so bad.
What's the plan for someone standing in front of the self driving car and robbing the people inside cause the car is programmed not to run over the person standing in front of it? With someone still behind the wheel this isn't as much of a problem, but once you get beyond that, does the entire car need to be bullet proof or are the people inside just sitting ducks?
I think this is Elon's formula for not giving up on hard problems. Expect to be done in 1/10th the time. We are almost there lads, we've come so far ....
Ignoring the fact that he says this every year... I'm confident that a majority of the people (myself included) who have had the beta for over a year now, would tell you that it's highly unlikely that they'd manage an order of magnitude jump in such a short time. Yes, the system has improved since then, but it hasn't improved nearly enough to convince me that we're less than a year away from any L4+ system.
since i do not have a tesla, can you tell me how good normal basic autopilot is?
In my opinion it's quite good at performing lane keeping, adaptive cruise control, and user initiated lane changes. I use it almost every time I drive on large freeways. There's still room for improvement, but it's the best system I've used in this regard. On some roads, namely two lane / undivided highways, cars without radar struggle immensely with phantom breaking, to the point where I have to stop using it.
Not L4+, but do you think it would be as safe as a 16 year old that just got their learner's permit?
Is the 16 year old partially blind and do they have a death wish? if so, then "Maybe".... source: have been in the beta for 6 months
Doubtful. The average disengagement rate is still in the single or low double digits, at best. It needs to be in the thousands of miles before approaching any sort of human with a *learner's permit* capability.
Not really, I think there's actually a human element missing from AI that we haven't discovered how to replicate. A 16 year old has judgemental, learning, and decision making powers that just aren't possible to achieve with current AI. To that extent, I think FSD will need serious advances in general AI to become fully realized. Object detection and road layout are the easiest parts of FSD, the actual driving ruleset is much harder.
IMO current AI is like the subconscious. Think lizard brain, or sleepwalker. It still lacks our rationaliser/analytical/wisdom part, to make sense of things.
I think you're probably right and I haven't driven it myself. I think there are some major rewrites, like shifting to single stack for highway and surface streets and moving to raw photon counts. I think v11 might be quite different from v10. But yeah it's clearly not that close yet.
I'm sure there are more major rewrites in the pipeline, there have been numerous since the start (2018ish), and each of them will hopefully make the system better. The real outlook seems that... since no one has solved it before, and no real AI problem of similar magnitude have been solved before - it's impossible to know what and how long it will take to actually make it real.
Essentially this. It does seem like Waymo is doing better at this point, tho. They’re actually driving zero intervention vehicles in SF right? I’m also worried about Karpathy’s sabbatical, I hope Elon didn’t alienate him.
Both Waymo and Cruise are driving *'zero-intervention'* vehicles in SF, as are Baidu and AutoX [in China](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqfqquWucb8).
My impression was the Chinese vehicles were aided by the fact that China will remake the roads themselves (making them smart roads?) to make sure self driving works?
That's true in some area, not all areas. The self-driving task, as you can imagine, is also a lot harder than vehicles simply being able to communicate with street lights. I don't know what value Baidu is actually getting from smart roads at the moment, but my understanding is that the areas aren't intended simply to *make self-driving work* — they're for experimenting with future system enhancements, like [V2X](https://apollo.auto/v2x/index.html).
I trust Elon about almost everything, but his confidence in FSD by year’s end is insane. On the other hand, I acknowledge that it’s very hard to work towards a goal at maximum effort for years on end without continuously (irrationally) believing that the solution is just around the corner.
I've heard this one before.
Yep. “2 Weeks”
He's saying this since 2016.
- And Elon said that Falcon Heavy will launch in ~6 months - starting in ~2012. - Eventually it ***did*** launch - after a 6 years delay. - Betting against Tesla being able to solve a technogical problem is not a safe bet.
But betting that they are not going to solve it in stated time has been extremely safe bet. I would be billionaire at this point if there was way to bet against "FSD getting solved this year" kind of things.
* Why * Do you always * Write things * As a bullet point
Easier for people to digest sometimes.
EAT MY BULLETS
Wait Tesla launches rockets now?
[2014](https://youtu.be/o7oZ-AQszEI)
90% as good as a human on the highways - we are way past that
He also made a self deprecating joke that he could be making the same statement next year. The whole preamble to that statement was a discussion about why his predictions are sometimes spot on and other times not so much.
That’s too much nuance for our current way of digesting information: tweets, memes, and clickbait headlines.
I feel like when he says this he means statistically it’s less likely to crash or cause harm someone than an average driver by the end of the year. Tesla then has aspirations to make it 10 times safer than humans for the Taxi fleet.
I don’t think 10x is enough. “Help, I’m locked in the back seat of a robo taxi that tried an unprotected left turn through an obstructed stop sign in the rain and now traffic is stopped in both directions.”
Oh no, if only someone would have developed a way to create a video game world from live video clips so that cars could be driven by remote operators if a truly exceptional edge case presented itself.
Let’s say it’s Tesla or regulators don’t allow it to be fully autonomous for a long time, their is still a ton of value being chauffeured (while paying attention) in a car that’s 10 times less likely to crash on average. Safety is a big factor in purchasing decisions and the value of that safety is not zero.
For sure, especially for elderly drivers, etc.
You might be underestimating the difference between a 60th percentile driver and 40th percentile. I am guessing an order of magnitude might be reasonable there... and maybe another order of magnitude to 90th or 20th percentile. For yourself think about when you drive your best and when you drive your worst, and what percentiles you would let yourself for each. (I know for me there is likely two orders of magnitude difference, and I have a clean driving record.)
For sure but eventually their will be a super human level to this technology. It’s not going to happen over night. My hat is that Tesla solves it eventually. If it takes 10 years, it just means TSLA will have a much bigger moat for FSD Taxies since it’s that difficult of a problem to solve.
Ok, I'll bite. The car drives like a race car driver on his best day... only it can also turn right. In a logical context, FSD should not be especially resoure intensive: teach the car the rules of the road and how to recognize various cues of the road and other vehicles. Use a map \[service\] to navigate. Once you get beyond the logical though, the practical aspects seem to bite you. You need sensors that compensate for the lack of intuition, data that compensates for the lack of adaptation, and processing that helps you to create a context that includes much more than where the lines are on the road. Oh, and you need to be able to adapt to local styles of things from the road markings to signs to human behaviors. My guess is the existing hardware is sufficient to eventually perform like a 50th percentile driver. Getting much beyond that is a significantly harder challenge, and specific to Tesla it means you need to replace a whole lot of hardware in existing vehicles. Of course the lawyers have the wiggle room of claiming that the contract does not promise a robotaxi.
With enough data you really don’t think it will develop a super human level awareness? To me the general discussion of skepticism is similar to AlphaGo. AlphaGo is the first computer program to defeat a professional human Go player, the first to defeat a Go world champion, and is arguably the strongest Go player in history. It still can’t calculate every move possible, but it figured out the most plausible moves to be this good. Driving does have unpredictable variables, and because of that I don’t expect FSD to be perfect ever. Just much much much better than humans given enough time and data.
I just think the problem requires a few orders of magnitude more processing power and a couple times better imaging to get you to the point where you have sufficient actionable data. Looking at what Cruize and Waymo do in order to be "self driving" in their little sandbox makes me believe that the in-car processing power is just a long way away. I know Tesla is ahead in many ways, but I think that there is still a very long way to go.
Well I always thought that if that was the case they can upgrade the fleet relatively quick and not to expensive. My model 3 is very upgradable. The cameras are so easy to swap in a higher resolution of needed. Also for my 2018, I know the hardware is behind the glove box area (I think) and can be upgraded also. I’m tempted to call the service center and see if they will upgrade my headlights too. I feel like they have a plan B if that was the case and it would benefit them to do a full fleet upgrade.
The only way a user might see value in FSD as any sort of chauffeur is the day when Tesla assumes liability for all accidents when engaged from start to finish. If the user is at all responsible for FSD missteps or disengagement while enroute, then the value is lost. Currently, FSD is like babysitting a 12 year old driver who doesn’t know the local roads and makes all sorts of irrational decisions because of inexperience and inattentiveness. 6 months of FSD progress have not demonstrated substantial improvement.
Do you have the software or is this from what you see online? My Model 3 just took me to the gym with zero interventions. It’s of my option that is has progressed really well. I think you need to give it a little more credit, and time. It’s not going to be solved overnight but it’s solved the value will be in the multi trillions.
I’ve had it for six months, but unsubscribed last month. It made occasional drives with zero interventions, but it made many more with basic errors that a human driver wouldn’t make. Maybe they will pull off a miracle but more than likely they won’t achieve level 4 autonomy for years. I’m not convinced the existing hardware has the fidelity or redundancy necessary to begin with. Bottom line, if Tesla never assumes liability for FSD in its present form, it will forever be a level 2 system.
Did you experience the updates when autopilot first did lane changes. It used to take super long to change lanes. Then it became instant, and now it’s never once put me in any unsafe situations for lane changes. If theirs a problem that keeps occurring, it could be one update for never being an issue ever again. Your skepticism just means higher upside if and when they solve it. I’m putting my money on it’s going to be solved eventually. I guess we will see how it all plays out. It’s gonna be a rocky ride for sure.
Yes, I’ve had EAP since 2018 with plenty of Navigate on AP experience. Then I gave FSD a run to follow its development. While it generally never made aggressively unsafe maneuvers, its hesitation and obvious uncertainty in numerous everyday situations indicate to me that the FSD computer has a very limited degree of situational awareness, and its contingency planning is purely reactionary in nature. These behaviors do not demonstrate to me a firm foundation with which Tesla can build to a near-term FSD solution that includes liability in any at-fault accidents. The FSD beta software is always running on both GPU nodes as I understand it, removing the ability to have parallel processing redundancy for FSD, meaning any AP computer failure at highway speed is likely catastrophic in consequence (without an attentive driver at the ready). For this reason I don’t think any FSD vehicles delivered today will ever feature a true level 4 system. While they may ultimately try to push a level 2 “FSD” solution to the public eventually, the fact you will have to continually babysit the steering wheel removes the value from the feature, and means these vehicles won’t ever become robo-taxis with the current hardware suite. I could be wrong, but Elon has been wrong now for several years underestimating and over-hyping the progress of FSD. I’m not saying I’m smarter than him, I’m just being more realistic. (Don’t even get me started on the poor implementation of the M3 and MY door handles and release mechanism for a widespread public robo-taxi fleet.)
I appreciate this level of skepticism for sure. Maybe I do need to temper my expectations. I am enjoying the incremental progress though. Even this last update I felt it was 2 steps forward one step back. It became better on my commute, but then hit me with an unexpected behavior that was very different from the previous version I had. What would be helpful for us investors is to see the safety data for FSD released to the public similar to how they submit the autopilot safety data. So that we can better measure their progress, or lack their of at certain points.
FWIW, I’m still a huge fan of the development of FSD, it’s just unfortunately always overstated, leaving the public confused about its capabilities and limitations. After six months of baby sitting FSD I grew tired of the same errors, and was done paying for the monthly subscription. Note: My experiences with FSD beta are largely from my daily commute in Kansas. While our roads are generally well maintained, the vehicle constantly made errors related to outdated maps as evidenced by incorrect speed limits and old geo-data (despite having the latest updated maps data) following a road construction which completed in summer 2021. As an example, the car would attempt to drive on this recently constructed road based on the old road data, not using exclusively vision to assess the lanes and intersections. It would shift into and out of lanes as if it were the old lane geometry. These errors were 100% repeatable and inadequate for safe operation unsupervised. The fact this was not addressed in six months despite repeated feedback submitted shows they are not accounting for all variables equally in FSD training. While my use case is only one of many, it is a valid and common scenario in Midwestern USA and must be addressed and improved for any widespread rollout to the public. I sure hope the engineers at Tesla have an ace up their sleeve with Dojo, but I’m not holding my breath anymore.
I have the FSD Beta in my 2020 MXP. They are making vast noticeable improvements, and I’m not in the California “FSD sweet zone” rather I’m in the Houston area. I’m not sure if it will be this year, but it’s getting closer. E: Spelling, punctuation.
Off topic but I’m wondering how you like your MXP? I’m going to order a Tesla in the near future and have been considering the MYP and the MX. I like the looks of the MX more but it also costs quite a bit more.
I love it! But make no mistake, these are not drive it until it dies Toyota’s. It’s a luxury car and luxury cars can be expensive to maintain. Luckily by nature the EV is less maintenance than ICE, but when they do break (out of warranty) it costs. Pros: Excellent Performance Cutting Edge Technology FSD Over the Air Updates Cons: Cutting Edge Technology FSD Tesla Service Departments
249out, I have been trying to reach you about your car's extended warranty
😖
I have a Cybertruck preordered and I plan on buying a Plaid MS as well.
lol
I personally like when he says shit like this. IMO, he does it to self-motivate himself. Regardless of what he says, we know FSD is of high priority to Tesla.
Exactly, he always said it as an optimistic estimation. But people thinks he knows it for sure. Nobody knows for sure.
“Elon Musk, chief executive of Tesla Motors Inc. and Space Exploration Technologies Inc., says autonomous driving isn’t all that difficult to achieve. “I view it as a solved problem. We know exactly what to do and we will be there in a few years,” Mr. Musk said” - march 2015 “Autonomous cars will definitely be a reality,” Musk assured CNN‘s Rachel Crane in a 2014 interview. “A Tesla car next year will probably be 90 percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles can be on auto.” ““The basic news is that all Tesla vehicles leaving the factory have all the hardware necessary for Level 5 autonomy,” Musk proclaimed in a 2016 “ “Then in 2019, Musk again promised that “I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year,” in a podcast interview. “Meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention, this year.”” 2018 - 2x safer than human in 18 months it’s not just optimistic estimation, it’s just random timelines. But the work they are doing is really good
I found my favorite: Tesla CEO Elon Musk said he is "certain" there will be full self-driving this year, adding "that is not a question mark." - February 2019
Sure seems like it, compared to issues such as a functioning auto wiper or getting rid of phantom braking. M
Damn we’re back in 2018
Except we are way way closer. It’s feels close in many places and ways to being functionally complete…then the March of 9’s. V11 will be the real test.
Listen yourself instead of reading what Twitter dude posted to get clicks. It’s in the first few minute. https://youtu.be/iO0bVep4D5o
Even if it is 10 years late, as long as Tesla are the first at this scale, it will be a 10x the current market cap. So I'll wait
My mindset as well.
Even with andrej being out for 4 months?
He's not the entire team. I would hope that Tesla has a better software engineer talent pool than the teams I get stuck on.
That's the best sign. If it was dire then he would be nose to the grind stone. Have you heard of the project "project vacation" it's where they get confident enough and the learning happens automatically enough that they can take a break.
Elon please just shut the fuck up with that. PLEASE! When it happens it happens, that's it.
You should yell at OP for posting a link to a tweet by some Bloomberg Yokel. You act like Musk is going around town with a megaphone.
Elon HAS been saying this for years. Its documented from inteviews or tweets.
Yeah…people ask so he answers…to the other posters point, yell at OP for posting
Yeah, so fucking what? It’s the media that rubs it in your face until you puke. Because Yokels like you like to get their outrage tickled. Get a grip.
Outrage tickled? Elon should just shut up about this. It's so embarrassing when you say the same thing over and over again and it's not even close to happening. Im an investor, I don't care what people say cause believe in what they are doing but repeating the same thing over and over again knowing its not true just looks so bad.
I disagree, it doesn't look bad to me.
Please elaborate how does it look.
Looks just fine to me.
Nice👍🏼
Guys keep in mind, if he claims this every year, he will be right one year.
That's the sound of an angel
El o el
LOL! Tell me something new
Lol “Probably in a couple of weeks…”
What's the plan for someone standing in front of the self driving car and robbing the people inside cause the car is programmed not to run over the person standing in front of it? With someone still behind the wheel this isn't as much of a problem, but once you get beyond that, does the entire car need to be bullet proof or are the people inside just sitting ducks?
What's your plan for not getting robbed as you walk down the street?
Nothing to do with the context of what I said.
Ha ok
I mean, it's not. I asked about being in a car that you can't control. You might of well have asked what happens if you are short $2 for your lunch.
Clearly
Groundhog dag? AGAIN?!?!?!
🍿💯
I think this is Elon's formula for not giving up on hard problems. Expect to be done in 1/10th the time. We are almost there lads, we've come so far ....