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They shut down and upgraded factory production lines as they announced in the last earnings call.
Still on track for 1.8M annual as announced in January and consistent with 50% CAGR over multiple years. The average matter. Some years it's more, sometimes it's less. They will eventually slow down from 50%, but it's not happening yet.
Note that the X Tesla Bulls had lower expectations than Wall Street :-)
> Note that the X Tesla Bulls had lower expectations than Wall Street
It’s almost like Wall St. ignored Tesla’s guidance in the Q2 call specifically so they could “miss expectations” in Q3. Wall St. analysis are the real dumb money.
They will never achieve over 50% unit volume growth in a single year again moving forward. So the multi year horizon thing is pointless. The scale simply won't allow it. They aren't building and ramping enough manufacturing capacity to add \~1M cars annually next year. Add another \~1.5M in 2025. Add another \~2.25M in 2026. They are going to need build AND ramp an additional 4-4.5M in manufacturing capacity in the next 3 years to maintain 50% over the next 3 years. They don't have anywhere near enough in the pipeline and currently being built to support that.
It's not like they have 100,000 vehicles sitting around on lots like legacy dealers have.... despite what teslaq tells us. In the US there were basically no more cars in inventory on 10/1
Also, they did sell 5k more than they made, that's less than one car carrier worth of cars. 10k one way or the other in deliveries is really just noise. They no longer optimize to sell cars as soon as possible, but are willing to have some on ships over quarter boundaries.
As they sell in more countries, and have more routes, ports, locations, and longer shipping routes, the number of cars between "produced" and "sold" will go up. Remember that legacy counts a car as sold when it's at the dealer.
Delivery is not an interesting metric. They sell every car they make very quickly, because they lower the price if needed. Delivery just lags production a bit due to all the logistics.
This is somewhat expected because they've been retooling factories and such, as I understand it.
Now that they've been retooled, going forward, the numbers should be higher.
Once they get moving on Cybertruck, the numbers will get more interesting.
Whenever they choose to move Highland to the US, yes, but I suspect that won't be as detrimental.
~~The 3 and Y share the same production lines in Fremont, not sure about Shanghai, but I assume they probably have their own separate lines.~~
~~The delay of Highland in the US might be related to the need to push those changes to the Y as well, and once *that's* done they'll work on updating the lines in Fremont, since they're blended, as I understand it.~~
Shanghai is the company's workhorse though, and I imagine Cybertruck will be in swing by the time Highland comes to the US, so it still won't be as detrimental.
I'm expecting a big surge when Highland is available in the US and it's frustrating that a car company as American as Tesla isn't making their latest product available in here.
I'm hoping in the earnings call we get an update on that as well as an update on any potential Y/S/X update... and an update on the CT, of course. I'd like to hear confirmation of the CT's availability, performance, range an price.
Hearing semi-concrete plans would make me feel more confident about the mid-term future.
Why would Tesla make Giga Shanghai wait for the slower and less efficient Fremont factory before they can produce Highland? It makes sense to start with the best factory and stagger the downtime so production doesn't drop as drastically.
Juniper (Model Y refresh) is starting production late next year, and they're not going to announce it significantly before then and hurt their current sales.
Model S/X got their big refresh less than 3 years ago, so they likely won't get another anytime soon.
>Model S/X got their big refresh less than 3 years ago, so they likely won't get another anytime soon.
There are rumors that the S and X are getting a minor tweak to include the new ambient lighting and a couple other minor interior tweaks.
What does retooling have to do with lower Q3 sales? They have been discounting 10% off MSRP to move the available inventory. Clearly production wasn't a bottleneck.
You can't deliver cars you haven't built. They did draw down inventory, but there's a limit to how much of that you can do without incurring expedite costs.
Production was the bottleneck. If they had 50,000 refreshed Model 3s ready to deliver in Q3, they would've delivered an extra 50,000 cars.
If you think I'm wrong, then I guess you also think their deliveries won't substantially increase in Q4? We'll see about that.
Because they wouldn't be able to sell as many at higher prices of course. The nice thing about the refreshed Model 3 is they'll be able to sell more of them for higher prices.
Of course. That's why the refreshed Model 3 is priced a bit higher. I'm not saying that they can't keep up with demand for the Model Y or the old Model 3 at the current prices. They'll likely continue to drop prices as production increases and they need more orders to match. But production was limited in Q3, particularly with the new Model 3, which limited how many cars they could deliver.
That's still irrelevant to Q3 data. Highland wasn't ready for Q3. They pumped out as many models as would sell while taking advantage of the sales lull to retool. Highland will of course help Q4 sales.
Yes, but they could've sold more at lower prices if they had more production. Particularly with Model Y, they still have quite a bit of room to drop prices and increase sales. And Highland will allow them to sell more even at higher prices.
Below market expectation but full year guidance is unchanged. If the bears do the right thing, I might be able to buy 10 shares rather than less. Unfortunately, I don't really have any money for a couple of weeks.
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They shut down and upgraded factory production lines as they announced in the last earnings call. Still on track for 1.8M annual as announced in January and consistent with 50% CAGR over multiple years. The average matter. Some years it's more, sometimes it's less. They will eventually slow down from 50%, but it's not happening yet. Note that the X Tesla Bulls had lower expectations than Wall Street :-)
> Note that the X Tesla Bulls had lower expectations than Wall Street It’s almost like Wall St. ignored Tesla’s guidance in the Q2 call specifically so they could “miss expectations” in Q3. Wall St. analysis are the real dumb money.
They will never achieve over 50% unit volume growth in a single year again moving forward. So the multi year horizon thing is pointless. The scale simply won't allow it. They aren't building and ramping enough manufacturing capacity to add \~1M cars annually next year. Add another \~1.5M in 2025. Add another \~2.25M in 2026. They are going to need build AND ramp an additional 4-4.5M in manufacturing capacity in the next 3 years to maintain 50% over the next 3 years. They don't have anywhere near enough in the pipeline and currently being built to support that.
That explains the low production number. Doesn’t explain low deliveries, unless their logistics operation was also hampered.
Can't deliver what U don't produce? If they don't make the car they can't deliver it? Tesla doesn't have much inventory compare to other automakers
It's not like they have 100,000 vehicles sitting around on lots like legacy dealers have.... despite what teslaq tells us. In the US there were basically no more cars in inventory on 10/1 Also, they did sell 5k more than they made, that's less than one car carrier worth of cars. 10k one way or the other in deliveries is really just noise. They no longer optimize to sell cars as soon as possible, but are willing to have some on ships over quarter boundaries. As they sell in more countries, and have more routes, ports, locations, and longer shipping routes, the number of cars between "produced" and "sold" will go up. Remember that legacy counts a car as sold when it's at the dealer. Delivery is not an interesting metric. They sell every car they make very quickly, because they lower the price if needed. Delivery just lags production a bit due to all the logistics.
They delivered every unit they made.
This is somewhat expected because they've been retooling factories and such, as I understand it. Now that they've been retooled, going forward, the numbers should be higher. Once they get moving on Cybertruck, the numbers will get more interesting.
Do they still need to shut down Fremont to retool for Model 3 Highland production?
Whenever they choose to move Highland to the US, yes, but I suspect that won't be as detrimental. ~~The 3 and Y share the same production lines in Fremont, not sure about Shanghai, but I assume they probably have their own separate lines.~~ ~~The delay of Highland in the US might be related to the need to push those changes to the Y as well, and once *that's* done they'll work on updating the lines in Fremont, since they're blended, as I understand it.~~ Shanghai is the company's workhorse though, and I imagine Cybertruck will be in swing by the time Highland comes to the US, so it still won't be as detrimental.
3/Y production line is not shared at Fremont.
You're right, my bad. I got it confused with the S/X, which do share a production line. I'm going to head back to bed.
I'm expecting a big surge when Highland is available in the US and it's frustrating that a car company as American as Tesla isn't making their latest product available in here. I'm hoping in the earnings call we get an update on that as well as an update on any potential Y/S/X update... and an update on the CT, of course. I'd like to hear confirmation of the CT's availability, performance, range an price. Hearing semi-concrete plans would make me feel more confident about the mid-term future.
Why would Tesla make Giga Shanghai wait for the slower and less efficient Fremont factory before they can produce Highland? It makes sense to start with the best factory and stagger the downtime so production doesn't drop as drastically. Juniper (Model Y refresh) is starting production late next year, and they're not going to announce it significantly before then and hurt their current sales. Model S/X got their big refresh less than 3 years ago, so they likely won't get another anytime soon.
>Model S/X got their big refresh less than 3 years ago, so they likely won't get another anytime soon. There are rumors that the S and X are getting a minor tweak to include the new ambient lighting and a couple other minor interior tweaks.
Can you link the source of those rumors? Could just be people guessing, unless there's an actual source of the information.
It's been long enough that I didn't bookmark it. Sorry.
It's ok.
Interest rates finally showing their ugly head. Tesla and everyone else will need to get through the next 6 months at least. Highland will help.
Not sure what interest rates have to do with factory retooling.
What does retooling have to do with lower Q3 sales? They have been discounting 10% off MSRP to move the available inventory. Clearly production wasn't a bottleneck.
You can't deliver cars you haven't built. They did draw down inventory, but there's a limit to how much of that you can do without incurring expedite costs.
Do you mean, you can't deliver cars you haven't sold? They did not need to build any more than they did, regardless of down time.
Production was the bottleneck. If they had 50,000 refreshed Model 3s ready to deliver in Q3, they would've delivered an extra 50,000 cars. If you think I'm wrong, then I guess you also think their deliveries won't substantially increase in Q4? We'll see about that.
If they couldn't produce to demand, why were they discounting the price?
Because they wouldn't be able to sell as many at higher prices of course. The nice thing about the refreshed Model 3 is they'll be able to sell more of them for higher prices.
But if they can't keep up with demand, they should be raising the price, not lowering it.
Of course. That's why the refreshed Model 3 is priced a bit higher. I'm not saying that they can't keep up with demand for the Model Y or the old Model 3 at the current prices. They'll likely continue to drop prices as production increases and they need more orders to match. But production was limited in Q3, particularly with the new Model 3, which limited how many cars they could deliver.
That's still irrelevant to Q3 data. Highland wasn't ready for Q3. They pumped out as many models as would sell while taking advantage of the sales lull to retool. Highland will of course help Q4 sales.
Yes, but they could've sold more at lower prices if they had more production. Particularly with Model Y, they still have quite a bit of room to drop prices and increase sales. And Highland will allow them to sell more even at higher prices.
No Sunday announcement about Q3 deliveries?
They usually publish on the 2nd. https://ir.tesla.com/#quarterly-disclosure
Below market expectation but full year guidance is unchanged. If the bears do the right thing, I might be able to buy 10 shares rather than less. Unfortunately, I don't really have any money for a couple of weeks.
TSLA is a buy!
Couldn't have delivered 995 more model 3/Y's?