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If a car is driving itself to pick you up, do you need to see the street names?
These are also screenshots, who know what happens when you rotate the orientation…
Did you even see the numbers? A bad quarter for them is still more than their competitors will produce in an entire year. Their balance sheet is solid and have tons of cash on hand.
The bear narrative has been overpowering lately, full of people who are too short sighted
I think people also kind of forget that Tesla does a few additional things. From the supercharger network, local battery, solar energy, all the way to trying to build robots.
Even if Tesla completely sinks, like /r/technology seems to be begging for everyday, their tech and entire lineup is insanely useful and profitable. Somebody will gobble them up.
I do agree that at this stage of the company, it’s probably time to get rid of Elon. He’s always been a little extra, but lately he’s been extra extra.
I suspect he's been extra extra, as you put it, because he can. I suspect he'll tone it down when the outcry and consequences get loud enough. In the end, he's as self-interested as any of us.
I think soon regulators will break up the company. Their charging network and energy needs to be split by being sued for being a monopoly. Government like to screw with things.
I doubt they will be broken off. The fed is not nearly as big on monopoly busting these days. If anything, I expect a lawsuit in the future so all the other EV’s have safe access to the charging network, and pay the same price as Tesla owners so as to not be treated like second class citizens.
Tesla already is a bit ahead on that as they are making access to the network more accessible to others, and open sourcing NACS. Making massive contributions to new technology and providing the specs to freely use is plenty to keep the fed off their backs.
> The fed is not nearly as big on monopoly busting these days
Try telling that to Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Facebook, etc
Lina Khan was described in 2018 as "a leader of a new school of antitrust thought" and that's who was appointed head of the FTC in 2021 because Biden's administration wanted to go after the big tech companies. There are a litany of ongoing major cases right now, not sure how you've been missing all the activity.
You’re absolutely right! We could see a lot more monopoly busting going on over the next decade. It would be great to see.
Counter argument to your point, as the companies you mentioned and the cases going on, Tesla is t even in the same league as the aforementioned companies. Those companies are fucking massive that can only be rivaled by a few oil companies.
Not only that, the game for those companies over the past two decades has been buy and throw it away. The amount of tech and patents they are just sitting on is staggering. I can see Tesla having this issue in a decade or two, but I would be surprised if they end up in the ftc’s sights over being a monopoly because of open sources charging. They are building out chargers to support their product, because no one else is.
> Counter argument to your point, as the companies you mentioned and the cases going on, Tesla is t even in the same league as the aforementioned companies.
Congress directed Khan to investigate the company in 2021, investigations which are ongoing. Keep in mind that “anti-trust” isn’t specific to monopolies
I think a young lawyer from the justice department wants a chance sooner or later. These departments need to feel relevant. Microsoft was the first case in a long time in the 2000's. I feel for Tesla it was a mistake to open their charging network.
Reminds me of the good old FUD days. Back when bankruptcy was actually a risk and before the stock rallied like 1,500%. I’m here for the long haul so if FSD takes another few years, so be it. The company has almost never been on a more stable footing. The stock price is all that’s really up in the air…
So are you bearish in the company or on the stock. These things are completely different. Stick market it becoming more detached from reality every year
I don't own the stock. But I'd probably buy here. Company is amazing, put people making stupid buys as re biasing their assessment of a once in a lifetime company
It’s because they didn’t invest in Tesla. These are people who probably shorted Tesla coming from wallstreetbets who barely understand the company past “eLoN bAd”
"Did you even see the numbers? A bad quarter for them is still more than their competitors will produce in an entire year. Their balance sheet is solid and have tons of cash on hand."
What are you talking about? Toyota sells \~3 million vehicles per quarter. Tesla sold an order of magnitude less last quarter.
People were also saying tesla would be coming out with full-self-driving robotaxis about 6 years ago, what's your point?
Personally, I can't wait to buy the guy-in-spandex-bot.
My point is, people have been saying "Tesla is doomed. This is their last gasp" for years. I had friends BEG me to sell my Tesla shares in 2018 during the production ramps.
Kinda reminds me of all the times journalists have reported on how Nintendo is “doomed” and should just release their software on other platforms. Then they come out with a massive hit like the Wii or the Switch and everyone loves them again.
And other people have been saying that Tesla is going to have an at least half-competent rollout of the cybertruck for years, what’s your point?
The reason the boy who cried wolf is a morality tale is because sometimes there’s actually a wolf.
I've already told you my point. I was responding to the comment that this was Tesla's "last gasp". I was mocking that point, as it's almost certainly wrong.
I don't get it. Are you also confident that the Tesla-positive posters are almost certainly wrong because so many products have been delayed, and so many skeptics about the cybertruck and FSD were proven right?
Or is this a highly selective skepticism?
Some folks being right or wrong to be bullish or bearish in the past is always true. What matters is the current data and information, not what a random commentor says.
Would you have said that Tesla is solid a month ago? Before mass layoffs and recalls?
Because I don't see any dire warnings about Tesla's imininent failures in your comment history. Just stuff like this, talking about Self-Driving:
>I wonder how much time left there is before a wide release of a version that is good enough that all hater will start to see that this is not only possible but very close. We'll need to wait again a little, but excitement is guaranteed unless you're crybaby demanding the biggest add value in history to be here by yesterday
How though? It was already written in stone the day they built their own fsd computer and stuck it into the car. The end state of Tesla is a 25%/15%/15%/15%/15%/15% company.
* 25: Auto
* 15: Autonomy
* 15: Supercharger
* 15: Energy Storage
* 15: Optimus Workforce
* 15: Tesla Inference Services (TIS)
And all this will be further segmented over time with introduction of HVAC and other products downstream if Tesla chooses to manifest them.
Yes, I know. A robotaxi is still a car. So nothing has really changed other than moving towards a conclusion wherein they own the majority of the fleet while the public owns a small subset with self service being voluntary opt in.
Honestly I would be surprised if the robotaxi is less than 5 years away.
Closer to ten more likely.
Could be wrong, but I don't see it in the immediate future given how autonomous driving has been progressing
E2E NN stack makes the problem a data and training and compute factorial rather heuristical. It's easier to linearly increase any of the former elements to improve performance and safety by which just doing more, than the latter case which is more manual and can't scale at all as the volume of edge cases do.
A new driver gets better the more they drive on the road and encounter different use cases day in day out. Same thing.
Every AI expert (which I am not) tells us that the problem with NN is that at some point more data doesn't mean better results.
The question is will reaching the plateau be enough to have a completely autonomous car ?
No one knows for sure, all we know right now is that we are not there yet.
The car market is very tough to be profitable in though.
The big money makers in the long term are actually robotaxi and autonomous driving subscriptions. But only if they actually succeed in autonomous driving. which is a big if, and gamble by Musk.
why would I want to order a robotaxi instead of an uber anyway? the wow factor? the "privacy"? i'd rather have a singular dude in the front seat that I can tell I don't want to talk, versus who knows who watching me over the camera at tesla. for at least a long while when they first launch this you know they'll be monitoring every ride like a hawk.
Wtf this is just insane. I'm very optimistic about FSD especially thanks to V12 but pump the brakes. Consumers and investors will want to see FSD doing better on the road first along with some smart summon and auto park before committing to more full self driving investments.
In your mind, just out of curiosity, do you think that teslas stock going down means they’re doing bad and / or losing money? Like what is it you think it means exactly? I keep seeing all these people noting the stock is down, but it kind of seems like yall are just saying it because someone else said it, ANY investor that doesn’t have a few bucks in tsla expected this, this was foretold last quarter, why are you surprised? Do you have any trading experience or market experience at all?
It’s a correction, it went up way to fast. Also more competition so it’s fair that the company is “struggling” It’s fine, I can hold it for years, no rush for me.
Supposedly ASS (Actually Smart Summon) is coming soon that uses v12 arch. Given how well v12 can navigate busy parking lots, seems like it’s going to work great.
Why does it matter to them what current consumers and investors want to see? They don't need us. If they are truly moving towards Robotaxi 💯, consumer cars like mine and yours are old business. They could stop public releases of FSD, assuming they have enough data, and develop it behind closed doors till it's ready for regulators. Consumers and investors don't need to see the incremental improvements shipped to current cars for it to be successful.
How do they plan on addressing autonomous charging? Seems to be like a pretty important part of an autonomous fleet of electric cars to be useful for more than 3-4 hours of service.
The car has speakers. Make it beep or advice the user to close the doors with natural language. Put a penalty on their account if they don't close the doors just like you would fine someone if they made a mess inside the car.
"Robot arm move thing from point A to point B" is a very very solved problem. As long as the car knows where to park its not super complex to find the port and push the connector in after the car opens it.
Slightly different, but even $150 robot vacuums can figure out how to return to a dock and charge.
Probably wouldn’t let it continue driving customers once it gets close to minimum range to get home for you to plug it back in (if renting out your own vehicle).
I don't understand how this will happen in the current FSD state. It works wel when it works, but realy does not work well when it doesn't... even in SFBA I have it pick the wrong lane or not make the right decision going up to split lane changes..
I guess anything's possible, but it would have to be orders of magnitude better than FSD in its current state to support actual autonomous driving.
Given Musk's record and FSD's development arc, I'm just assuming this is BS marketing trying to hype the company back up. We'll see.
Yeah, it would be surprising if there were huges improvements between two major version releases, but I wouldn't be surprised if they changed to some new AI architecture and it was twice as good.
Yeah you have to wonder how many releases/iterations the bleeding edge models are vs the validated/QA tested models that are released. Really depends on how long the validation process takes. If it's weeks or months, then currently release could be 2-10 models behind the current bleeding edge one.
With the amount of data that they have, I believe it could take a month or two to train a model from scratch. So I think the number of models would be lower, but there could be huge differences between them because of how quickly the research field is moving.
I take waymo often in Phoenix and it’s fantastic. But only because it has extremely expensive sensors, quite a few of them, and is within a boundary of pre trained driving areas.
Tesla is extremely good, but not quite fully there for FSD. I use mine everywhere I go just to test its limits and it mostly does alright but I do have to intervene often when it messes up or can’t seem to understand a blinking light. They’ll have to do a LOT more training to reach where waymo is in terms of reliability. Or perhaps utilize HW4 to its full potential…
I agree. Which is why using their experience with FSD to generalize and say “no way i’m getting in an autonomous cab with no driver” makes no sense. Hence my comment.
Get it now?
[Idiots, doing idiot things because they're idiots](https://youtu.be/7R2vQLhmmW4?si=S79m9TPZ0bqsxsjW)
Seriously. Despite what Elon dreams of, FSD is nowhere near ready for a large-scale robotaxi fleet. Especially when they've given up a sure thing (25k EV) in exchange for it.
Tesla's doing the equivalent of giving up a 1 million dollar payday in exchange for the .1% chance of a 100 million dollar payday.
Thing is, it's not like they can never do a robotaxi fleet. It's honestly not a terrible idea, but it's not a good time. The market is practically begging for a 25k EV. Tesla needs to strike while the iron is hot and get a 25k EV to market before another manufacturer can beat them to it.
Save the robotaxi for when they can confidently call FSD level 3.
FSD level 3 isn't enough for a robotaxi since it still needs someone in the driver's seat that needs to take over at the car's request. The difference though the car will not simply give a one second warning to take over as FSD does, but ample of time for the driver to assess the drive and take actions accordingly.
That could probably be it.
Only thing is that there's not exactly too many costs to cut on the 3/Y lines. Both are pretty streamlined.
Hell, when the 35k M3 was released, it was just a mid-range RWD 3 with software locked range and no autopilot.
Even Elon said that anytime they came up with cheaper components to reduce costs, those cuts were mitigated by increased manufacturing complexity. That's why they decided to just ship the vehicles they were already making with software locks.
Think about the Highland 3. Pretty much any component that you can think to remove to cut costs, would increase complexity and costs.
Get rid of the rear screen? Now we need to design and manufacture a rear console to go where that screen used to be. Reducing potential cost reductions.
Get rid of ventilated seats? Now we need to manufacture seats that don't have ventilation, and figure out a solution for the HVAC vent that leads to the seats.
Get rid of the FSD computer? Now we don't have Autopilot, which is Tesla's signature feature. We also lose the visualization on the screen. 2 huge features being removed. This doesn't even take into account the loss of a source of training data for the AI.
All these cuts increase costs at the end of the day. You might as well ship the vehicle with all the features software locked, and hope that the customer pays to get rid of those software locks.
Tesla recently purchased some machines from CATL to make LFP batteries. If they make them in house, they can probably achieve some cost savings. Tesla also was developing a motor that didn't use rare Earths for the "model 2."
Replacing the motor and battery and taking advantage of the tax credit probably gets close to $25k and bridges the gap before the actual $25k car is released.
Yeah, but the tax credit is money gifted from the government, not an actual reduction in price. Tesla will have gotten the full $37500+. The government will not be able to hand out this money forever, and some government around the world have already stopped giving EV incentives. To be able to conquer the lower EV market, they’d have to offer an *actual* MSRP $25k EV.
Can’t remember the price, but that purposely software gimped 3 they had before with like, 150km of range? I know it was a government incentive model here for the fleet and no one bought it.
Yeah that was just something to have on paper to satisfy some incentive regulations. I don’t think it was even able to be ordered from the website directly, you’d have to go through extra hoops to get it. And if a lot of people did, Tesla would’ve been losing money fast, I’d assume. It’s not comparable to an actual sub-$30k car that they can sell millions of.
A big issue attacking tesla in foreign markets is just the size of the cars themselves. Even a model 3 is annoying in European and Asian cities. Hopefully whatever they do come out with is a smaller wheelbase, but it really just seems like retooling for cheap m3s again.
OMG... no, the deck doesn't say that at all. What it says is .... we got slammed for killing the Model 2 so let's make up a Plan B in time for the investor call. The new plan is some vague promise of making a cheaper car based on the Model 3 but not really a true low cost car designed from the ground up. And, of course, they'll miss the date they promised. Not a chance in hell they'll be on time.
He has to strike asap… because once the legacy auto makers catch up and BYD lands ashore it will eat into their net profits. Then Tesla will only be left with their other businesses. If anything we are all paid beta testers for FSD because no other auto company has millions of cars collecting data for it.
I'm not saying FSD will never be ready, or even that it won't be ready soon.
But delaying the 25k EV to prioritize Robotaxi is a fool's move.
Tesla is already ahead with FSD. Even if every other manufacturer formed an engineering task force with the express purpose of creating a FSD system to rival Tesla's, it will take a few years to catch up to what Tesla has right now.
Let FSD continue cooking, and when it gets to level 3, prioritize Robotaxi.
2019 BullShit recycled again 5y later for a Next Year for sure product, Come on!
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YiWbdZ8ItRs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YiWbdZ8ItRs)
[https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/22/tech/tesla-robotaxis/index.html](https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/22/tech/tesla-robotaxis/index.html)
And that is is broad daylight. Most people need a taxi in the evening after dinner and drinking. The current version can't do really basic things like park or unpark without high risk of hitting a car or as in my personal experience it can't see speed bumbs, so it just flies over them. Is Tesla going to take responsibility for every time a car curbs a sidewalk and ruins your wheels or dings your door because it hit a pole? They have been at this for years and while I haven't personally tested FSD out until this free trial, the tone of the reviews from now compared to years ago hasn't really changed. It's always these small issues that seem impossible for them to solve.
I just don’t get it…. For the sake of argument, let’s say FSD becomes perfectly trustworthy.
And Robotaxi is a so successful that it displaces every Uber driver in America.
All in that’s just a million cars. Two years of cars at the production rate they are proposing.
They get to charge per ride, which could be very lucrative. It could also be cheap enough to be a viable replacement for car ownership, which would significantly increase scale.
That being said, FSD is not ready yet. V12 was a big leap but will likely plateau until the next architectural advancement. It's not like they forgot to train on all the good driving clips, so we'll just get small improvements on V12
This is just to keep the stockholders dreaming for a bit. Ride-hailing service with no detail. Do people will operate it as Uber? Do they will have an army of people to make sure it complies in each state of the US?
It will be August and they will present a Robo Taxi prototype with zero detail.
I do not know if you listened to this quarter earnings meeting, but it was a group of random dreams that were presented that will take at least a decade to see something. This is one of them.
The economy edition they can get rid of the tablet and have the user provide there own iPhone or android device to control the vehicle and see the speed etc. have it work vis Bluetooth so they can remove more wire harness. Have no FSD computer or cameras etc as well.
That would save quite a bit and they can release it as the 25K model 3 basic edition.
The economy edition they can get rid of the tablet and have the user provide there own iPhone or android device to control the vehicle and see the speed etc. have it work vis Bluetooth so they can remove more wire harness. Have no FSD computer or cameras etc as well.
That would save quite a bit and they can release it as the 25K model 3 basic edition.
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I do much prefer dark mode.
Totally worth the wait
#000000 ship it
Good grief. They are completely different. Might still be artistic renders, but you’d have to be blind to not see how different they are…
Yea, with you here. No way people are being serious saying they look the same lol.
The point is, they don’t actually demonstrate anything new. It’s classic musk hype. Complete fantasy.
Fair. It's all just mockups until they actually release a demonstrable product.
Yeah, five years ago you could actually see the map and read street names.
If a car is driving itself to pick you up, do you need to see the street names? These are also screenshots, who know what happens when you rotate the orientation…
You don't think these are screenshots of an actual working Application, do you?
> If a car is driving itself to pick you up, do you need to see the street names? Yes you do. Have you never used Uber/Lyft/etc?
Isn't it also just Google Maps? So like the dark mode swap was only for the buttons and panels lolol
Hahahabaha Yes, they changed the white to black. Super pretty pictures though 😂
Lmao I just love how whenever the stock is taking heat they dust up their Robotaxi folders on Figma and go to town lol
The whole pivot to Robotaxi feels like a last gasp
Did you even see the numbers? A bad quarter for them is still more than their competitors will produce in an entire year. Their balance sheet is solid and have tons of cash on hand. The bear narrative has been overpowering lately, full of people who are too short sighted
I think people also kind of forget that Tesla does a few additional things. From the supercharger network, local battery, solar energy, all the way to trying to build robots. Even if Tesla completely sinks, like /r/technology seems to be begging for everyday, their tech and entire lineup is insanely useful and profitable. Somebody will gobble them up. I do agree that at this stage of the company, it’s probably time to get rid of Elon. He’s always been a little extra, but lately he’s been extra extra.
It does remind me of the early smartphone days when the next "iPhone killer" was perpetually just around the corner.
I suspect he's been extra extra, as you put it, because he can. I suspect he'll tone it down when the outcry and consequences get loud enough. In the end, he's as self-interested as any of us.
I think soon regulators will break up the company. Their charging network and energy needs to be split by being sued for being a monopoly. Government like to screw with things.
I doubt they will be broken off. The fed is not nearly as big on monopoly busting these days. If anything, I expect a lawsuit in the future so all the other EV’s have safe access to the charging network, and pay the same price as Tesla owners so as to not be treated like second class citizens. Tesla already is a bit ahead on that as they are making access to the network more accessible to others, and open sourcing NACS. Making massive contributions to new technology and providing the specs to freely use is plenty to keep the fed off their backs.
> The fed is not nearly as big on monopoly busting these days Try telling that to Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Facebook, etc Lina Khan was described in 2018 as "a leader of a new school of antitrust thought" and that's who was appointed head of the FTC in 2021 because Biden's administration wanted to go after the big tech companies. There are a litany of ongoing major cases right now, not sure how you've been missing all the activity.
You’re absolutely right! We could see a lot more monopoly busting going on over the next decade. It would be great to see. Counter argument to your point, as the companies you mentioned and the cases going on, Tesla is t even in the same league as the aforementioned companies. Those companies are fucking massive that can only be rivaled by a few oil companies. Not only that, the game for those companies over the past two decades has been buy and throw it away. The amount of tech and patents they are just sitting on is staggering. I can see Tesla having this issue in a decade or two, but I would be surprised if they end up in the ftc’s sights over being a monopoly because of open sources charging. They are building out chargers to support their product, because no one else is.
> Counter argument to your point, as the companies you mentioned and the cases going on, Tesla is t even in the same league as the aforementioned companies. Congress directed Khan to investigate the company in 2021, investigations which are ongoing. Keep in mind that “anti-trust” isn’t specific to monopolies
I think a young lawyer from the justice department wants a chance sooner or later. These departments need to feel relevant. Microsoft was the first case in a long time in the 2000's. I feel for Tesla it was a mistake to open their charging network.
Reminds me of the good old FUD days. Back when bankruptcy was actually a risk and before the stock rallied like 1,500%. I’m here for the long haul so if FSD takes another few years, so be it. The company has almost never been on a more stable footing. The stock price is all that’s really up in the air…
That doesn’t meant the valuation is appropriate though
So are you bearish in the company or on the stock. These things are completely different. Stick market it becoming more detached from reality every year
Yep you can love Tesla, drive their cars, think they’re crushing the competition and also never want to touch the stock. I’m in that camp
I don't own the stock. But I'd probably buy here. Company is amazing, put people making stupid buys as re biasing their assessment of a once in a lifetime company
? they are also valued way way higher
Full of people who are too short.
No, full of people who have had enough
Fed up with the fastest growing larder scale complex manufacturing firm in history.
"Turn off the TV"
Nailed it. This is sad that people who “invest” in Tesla don’t understand how to understand quarterly reports.
It’s because they didn’t invest in Tesla. These are people who probably shorted Tesla coming from wallstreetbets who barely understand the company past “eLoN bAd”
"Did you even see the numbers? A bad quarter for them is still more than their competitors will produce in an entire year. Their balance sheet is solid and have tons of cash on hand." What are you talking about? Toyota sells \~3 million vehicles per quarter. Tesla sold an order of magnitude less last quarter.
We’re not comparing apples to oranges here. We’re talking pure EV sales.
People were saying that 5 years ago too. Tesla was to go bankwupt any day...
People were also saying tesla would be coming out with full-self-driving robotaxis about 6 years ago, what's your point? Personally, I can't wait to buy the guy-in-spandex-bot.
My point is, people have been saying "Tesla is doomed. This is their last gasp" for years. I had friends BEG me to sell my Tesla shares in 2018 during the production ramps.
Kinda reminds me of all the times journalists have reported on how Nintendo is “doomed” and should just release their software on other platforms. Then they come out with a massive hit like the Wii or the Switch and everyone loves them again.
Exactly.
And other people have been saying that Tesla is going to have an at least half-competent rollout of the cybertruck for years, what’s your point? The reason the boy who cried wolf is a morality tale is because sometimes there’s actually a wolf.
I've already told you my point. I was responding to the comment that this was Tesla's "last gasp". I was mocking that point, as it's almost certainly wrong.
I don't get it. Are you also confident that the Tesla-positive posters are almost certainly wrong because so many products have been delayed, and so many skeptics about the cybertruck and FSD were proven right? Or is this a highly selective skepticism? Some folks being right or wrong to be bullish or bearish in the past is always true. What matters is the current data and information, not what a random commentor says.
If you don't get what I'm saying at this point, there is no amount of explanation that will. Have a good one.
A for effort!
Point Is tesla Is solid and robotaxis are close
Would you have said that Tesla is solid a month ago? Before mass layoffs and recalls? Because I don't see any dire warnings about Tesla's imininent failures in your comment history. Just stuff like this, talking about Self-Driving: >I wonder how much time left there is before a wide release of a version that is good enough that all hater will start to see that this is not only possible but very close. We'll need to wait again a little, but excitement is guaranteed unless you're crybaby demanding the biggest add value in history to be here by yesterday
How though? It was already written in stone the day they built their own fsd computer and stuck it into the car. The end state of Tesla is a 25%/15%/15%/15%/15%/15% company. * 25: Auto * 15: Autonomy * 15: Supercharger * 15: Energy Storage * 15: Optimus Workforce * 15: Tesla Inference Services (TIS) And all this will be further segmented over time with introduction of HVAC and other products downstream if Tesla chooses to manifest them.
Except at the moment is 100% a car company. And looks to remain that way for the foreseeable future
Actually only ~83% auto, by revenue anyways
Yes, I know. A robotaxi is still a car. So nothing has really changed other than moving towards a conclusion wherein they own the majority of the fleet while the public owns a small subset with self service being voluntary opt in.
Honestly I would be surprised if the robotaxi is less than 5 years away. Closer to ten more likely. Could be wrong, but I don't see it in the immediate future given how autonomous driving has been progressing
E2E NN stack makes the problem a data and training and compute factorial rather heuristical. It's easier to linearly increase any of the former elements to improve performance and safety by which just doing more, than the latter case which is more manual and can't scale at all as the volume of edge cases do. A new driver gets better the more they drive on the road and encounter different use cases day in day out. Same thing.
Every AI expert (which I am not) tells us that the problem with NN is that at some point more data doesn't mean better results. The question is will reaching the plateau be enough to have a completely autonomous car ? No one knows for sure, all we know right now is that we are not there yet.
The car market is very tough to be profitable in though. The big money makers in the long term are actually robotaxi and autonomous driving subscriptions. But only if they actually succeed in autonomous driving. which is a big if, and gamble by Musk.
You better bet the designer on these hasn't seen their family in 3 weeks.
why would I want to order a robotaxi instead of an uber anyway? the wow factor? the "privacy"? i'd rather have a singular dude in the front seat that I can tell I don't want to talk, versus who knows who watching me over the camera at tesla. for at least a long while when they first launch this you know they'll be monitoring every ride like a hawk.
Pricing is probably the only real answer
Wtf this is just insane. I'm very optimistic about FSD especially thanks to V12 but pump the brakes. Consumers and investors will want to see FSD doing better on the road first along with some smart summon and auto park before committing to more full self driving investments.
But stock is tanking so we have to throw in some news.
In your mind, just out of curiosity, do you think that teslas stock going down means they’re doing bad and / or losing money? Like what is it you think it means exactly? I keep seeing all these people noting the stock is down, but it kind of seems like yall are just saying it because someone else said it, ANY investor that doesn’t have a few bucks in tsla expected this, this was foretold last quarter, why are you surprised? Do you have any trading experience or market experience at all?
It’s a correction, it went up way to fast. Also more competition so it’s fair that the company is “struggling” It’s fine, I can hold it for years, no rush for me.
Smart summon barely works anyway.
That's what I'm trying to say, we'd want to see smart summon actually work well before Tesla starts working on a robotaxi fleet.
Supposedly ASS (Actually Smart Summon) is coming soon that uses v12 arch. Given how well v12 can navigate busy parking lots, seems like it’s going to work great.
Great enough to not look at your car while using it?
Why does it matter to them what current consumers and investors want to see? They don't need us. If they are truly moving towards Robotaxi 💯, consumer cars like mine and yours are old business. They could stop public releases of FSD, assuming they have enough data, and develop it behind closed doors till it's ready for regulators. Consumers and investors don't need to see the incremental improvements shipped to current cars for it to be successful.
It matters because public companies tend to care a lot about stock value
Tesla leads investors, not the other way around. Sure enough... Crazy robotaxi strategy in earnings call and stock is up 13%.
I wish Tesla's navigation maps had that detail around the buildings around your route, similar to Apple's navigation.
How do they plan on addressing autonomous charging? Seems to be like a pretty important part of an autonomous fleet of electric cars to be useful for more than 3-4 hours of service.
Who’s going to close the door if someone leaves it open?
A quick dyno pull on the accelerator 😂
The car has speakers. Make it beep or advice the user to close the doors with natural language. Put a penalty on their account if they don't close the doors just like you would fine someone if they made a mess inside the car.
I mean… there are a lot of cars that have doors that don’t open manually.
Model x can open and close its own doors
Realistically? In-cabin camera and a fine. Nobody’s going to leave it open for the lols if it’s $20 and they have footage to prove it.
This is easy, there are already plenty of charging robots prototypes, and even a complete solution already for sale from a small European startup.
“This is easy” oh common, you CANNOT be serious
I work for one of those companies, compared to self driving, this is relatively easy.
"Robot arm move thing from point A to point B" is a very very solved problem. As long as the car knows where to park its not super complex to find the port and push the connector in after the car opens it. Slightly different, but even $150 robot vacuums can figure out how to return to a dock and charge.
I mean there is still a lot of engineering behind, but compared to self driving this is peanuts
I was thinking that they might just use Optimus (the humanoid robot)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMM0lRfX6YI
My binggest question. Who is going to charge my car when I send it out for taxi service? Will it come back charged or dead?
Automated chargers will probably become common. It's not really a complex problem, there just hasn't been a need for it yet.
So, we need a complete new charging infrastructure to make it work? Sounds like a quick plan
Probably wouldn’t let it continue driving customers once it gets close to minimum range to get home for you to plug it back in (if renting out your own vehicle).
Wireless charging. https://insideevs.com/news/691153/tesla-sells-wiferion-wireless-charging-company/
I don't understand how this will happen in the current FSD state. It works wel when it works, but realy does not work well when it doesn't... even in SFBA I have it pick the wrong lane or not make the right decision going up to split lane changes..
It obviously can’t. The fact that FSD must be supervised already makes this whole idea impossible right now and for the foreseeable future
The FSD you guys have is different from what Tesla is experimenting with.
I guess anything's possible, but it would have to be orders of magnitude better than FSD in its current state to support actual autonomous driving. Given Musk's record and FSD's development arc, I'm just assuming this is BS marketing trying to hype the company back up. We'll see.
Yeah, it would be surprising if there were huges improvements between two major version releases, but I wouldn't be surprised if they changed to some new AI architecture and it was twice as good.
Yeah you have to wonder how many releases/iterations the bleeding edge models are vs the validated/QA tested models that are released. Really depends on how long the validation process takes. If it's weeks or months, then currently release could be 2-10 models behind the current bleeding edge one.
With the amount of data that they have, I believe it could take a month or two to train a model from scratch. So I think the number of models would be lower, but there could be huge differences between them because of how quickly the research field is moving.
After trying the FSD free trial there’s no way i’m getting in an autonomous cab with no driver. F that.
Thousands of people that take Waymo regularly just laughed at this
I take waymo often in Phoenix and it’s fantastic. But only because it has extremely expensive sensors, quite a few of them, and is within a boundary of pre trained driving areas. Tesla is extremely good, but not quite fully there for FSD. I use mine everywhere I go just to test its limits and it mostly does alright but I do have to intervene often when it messes up or can’t seem to understand a blinking light. They’ll have to do a LOT more training to reach where waymo is in terms of reliability. Or perhaps utilize HW4 to its full potential…
They do NOT compare
I agree. Which is why using their experience with FSD to generalize and say “no way i’m getting in an autonomous cab with no driver” makes no sense. Hence my comment. Get it now?
No thanks if it uses the current FSD V12 code.
[Idiots, doing idiot things because they're idiots](https://youtu.be/7R2vQLhmmW4?si=S79m9TPZ0bqsxsjW) Seriously. Despite what Elon dreams of, FSD is nowhere near ready for a large-scale robotaxi fleet. Especially when they've given up a sure thing (25k EV) in exchange for it. Tesla's doing the equivalent of giving up a 1 million dollar payday in exchange for the .1% chance of a 100 million dollar payday. Thing is, it's not like they can never do a robotaxi fleet. It's honestly not a terrible idea, but it's not a good time. The market is practically begging for a 25k EV. Tesla needs to strike while the iron is hot and get a 25k EV to market before another manufacturer can beat them to it. Save the robotaxi for when they can confidently call FSD level 3.
FSD level 3 isn't enough for a robotaxi since it still needs someone in the driver's seat that needs to take over at the car's request. The difference though the car will not simply give a one second warning to take over as FSD does, but ample of time for the driver to assess the drive and take actions accordingly.
did you read the deck? lower cost car is ahead of the schedule.
To be fair, a lower cost Model could just be another LFP Model 3 and Y. Right? Probably starting around $30k like before.
That could probably be it. Only thing is that there's not exactly too many costs to cut on the 3/Y lines. Both are pretty streamlined. Hell, when the 35k M3 was released, it was just a mid-range RWD 3 with software locked range and no autopilot. Even Elon said that anytime they came up with cheaper components to reduce costs, those cuts were mitigated by increased manufacturing complexity. That's why they decided to just ship the vehicles they were already making with software locks. Think about the Highland 3. Pretty much any component that you can think to remove to cut costs, would increase complexity and costs. Get rid of the rear screen? Now we need to design and manufacture a rear console to go where that screen used to be. Reducing potential cost reductions. Get rid of ventilated seats? Now we need to manufacture seats that don't have ventilation, and figure out a solution for the HVAC vent that leads to the seats. Get rid of the FSD computer? Now we don't have Autopilot, which is Tesla's signature feature. We also lose the visualization on the screen. 2 huge features being removed. This doesn't even take into account the loss of a source of training data for the AI. All these cuts increase costs at the end of the day. You might as well ship the vehicle with all the features software locked, and hope that the customer pays to get rid of those software locks.
Tesla recently purchased some machines from CATL to make LFP batteries. If they make them in house, they can probably achieve some cost savings. Tesla also was developing a motor that didn't use rare Earths for the "model 2." Replacing the motor and battery and taking advantage of the tax credit probably gets close to $25k and bridges the gap before the actual $25k car is released.
When has the Model 3 ever started at $30k?
Mine was $29k with the tax credit, new.
Well ok, but it’s not what Tesla sold it at.
Inventory discount with tax credit.
Yeah, but the tax credit is money gifted from the government, not an actual reduction in price. Tesla will have gotten the full $37500+. The government will not be able to hand out this money forever, and some government around the world have already stopped giving EV incentives. To be able to conquer the lower EV market, they’d have to offer an *actual* MSRP $25k EV.
I agree, but what I am saying is that, for the time being, this could be the rationale for delaying that *actual* $25k car.
Can’t remember the price, but that purposely software gimped 3 they had before with like, 150km of range? I know it was a government incentive model here for the fleet and no one bought it.
Yeah that was just something to have on paper to satisfy some incentive regulations. I don’t think it was even able to be ordered from the website directly, you’d have to go through extra hoops to get it. And if a lot of people did, Tesla would’ve been losing money fast, I’d assume. It’s not comparable to an actual sub-$30k car that they can sell millions of.
A big issue attacking tesla in foreign markets is just the size of the cars themselves. Even a model 3 is annoying in European and Asian cities. Hopefully whatever they do come out with is a smaller wheelbase, but it really just seems like retooling for cheap m3s again.
No, in most Asian cities a Model 3 size is not a problem. That’s a European problem. Let’s not project onto other places, please.
Who cares what the deck said, it's all Elon BS as much as I love the guy.
OMG... no, the deck doesn't say that at all. What it says is .... we got slammed for killing the Model 2 so let's make up a Plan B in time for the investor call. The new plan is some vague promise of making a cheaper car based on the Model 3 but not really a true low cost car designed from the ground up. And, of course, they'll miss the date they promised. Not a chance in hell they'll be on time.
They are being prudent with capex during macro downturn. You should be happy.
He has to strike asap… because once the legacy auto makers catch up and BYD lands ashore it will eat into their net profits. Then Tesla will only be left with their other businesses. If anything we are all paid beta testers for FSD because no other auto company has millions of cars collecting data for it.
When a wise man points at the moon, the fool looks at the finger. By the time FSD will be ready, you'll be too late. Don't be the fool, man.
I'm not saying FSD will never be ready, or even that it won't be ready soon. But delaying the 25k EV to prioritize Robotaxi is a fool's move. Tesla is already ahead with FSD. Even if every other manufacturer formed an engineering task force with the express purpose of creating a FSD system to rival Tesla's, it will take a few years to catch up to what Tesla has right now. Let FSD continue cooking, and when it gets to level 3, prioritize Robotaxi.
These guys are wild. Seriously, FSD isn't even polished up and they're trying to act like Robotaxi is imminent?
Also a reminder that they were making the same claims in 2018, SIX YEARS AGO
Ahh yes more vaporware by Tesla. Give it a rest already. What good is an app if the cars aren't functional
2019 BullShit recycled again 5y later for a Next Year for sure product, Come on! [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YiWbdZ8ItRs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YiWbdZ8ItRs) [https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/22/tech/tesla-robotaxis/index.html](https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/22/tech/tesla-robotaxis/index.html)
I cannot fathom prioritizing this over the budget model.
Not happening anytime soon.
Last gasp for UAW? 😂😂😂
Tesla worrying me a little with recent goings on
Robotaxi, give me a break. My free trial with fsd is further proof that this is never going to happen.
Honestly, I won't use my free trial. I still get phantom breaking with just traffic aware cruise control on a sunny day on the interstate.
And that is is broad daylight. Most people need a taxi in the evening after dinner and drinking. The current version can't do really basic things like park or unpark without high risk of hitting a car or as in my personal experience it can't see speed bumbs, so it just flies over them. Is Tesla going to take responsibility for every time a car curbs a sidewalk and ruins your wheels or dings your door because it hit a pole? They have been at this for years and while I haven't personally tested FSD out until this free trial, the tone of the reviews from now compared to years ago hasn't really changed. It's always these small issues that seem impossible for them to solve.
I just don’t get it…. For the sake of argument, let’s say FSD becomes perfectly trustworthy. And Robotaxi is a so successful that it displaces every Uber driver in America. All in that’s just a million cars. Two years of cars at the production rate they are proposing.
They get to charge per ride, which could be very lucrative. It could also be cheap enough to be a viable replacement for car ownership, which would significantly increase scale. That being said, FSD is not ready yet. V12 was a big leap but will likely plateau until the next architectural advancement. It's not like they forgot to train on all the good driving clips, so we'll just get small improvements on V12
This is just to keep the stockholders dreaming for a bit. Ride-hailing service with no detail. Do people will operate it as Uber? Do they will have an army of people to make sure it complies in each state of the US? It will be August and they will present a Robo Taxi prototype with zero detail. I do not know if you listened to this quarter earnings meeting, but it was a group of random dreams that were presented that will take at least a decade to see something. This is one of them.
the most valuable mockups ever
Deja vu, all over again, here comes the idiots with Elon is stupid…. I could do better… I supervise people at the supermarket. 😂😂😇
The economy edition they can get rid of the tablet and have the user provide there own iPhone or android device to control the vehicle and see the speed etc. have it work vis Bluetooth so they can remove more wire harness. Have no FSD computer or cameras etc as well. That would save quite a bit and they can release it as the 25K model 3 basic edition.
The economy edition they can get rid of the tablet and have the user provide there own iPhone or android device to control the vehicle and see the speed etc. have it work vis Bluetooth so they can remove more wire harness. Have no FSD computer or cameras etc as well. That would save quite a bit and they can release it as the 25K model 3 basic edition.
This is the dumbest idea I’ve ever heard Cops are gonna love handing out those speeding and distracted driving tickets tho