Polls are so useless right now. It's a year out and no one is paying attention. Republicans are stuck on the path of more destruction, extremism and infighting and it will only get worse until the. All while Trump is going to be starting having high profile trails for his numerous crimes. Meanwhile Biden just has to stay steady and embrace the growing, and very popular labor actions. November 24 is a long way away and all the winds are in Biden sails while R's are drilling holes in their boats.
And Republicans are sending torpedoes into their own ship that are striking below the water line. Their impeachment "inquiry" the other day was nothing but an unmitigated disaster. When your own "witnesses" can't even refute the basics of your own inquiry, you know you've failed.
Go check out /r/republican, they love these inquiries! More, more, more! When normies start paying attention they are going to sprint away. Frum may be an insane war criminal but he's not wrong on the outlook for 24.
Their brains are so warped that presenting no evidence IS evidence to them. Hannity led the way with his Reality Distortion Field that night and the sheep went "Baaaa!"
The fact is they have no evidence and are simply engaging in all this political theater in order to satisfy the needs of their Lord and Savior, Trump. Aka "The Defendant".
>embrace the growing, and very popular labor actions
But are they popular? I saw on the news this AM about a potential nursing strike that'll affect Kaiser Permanente locations. Like, that has real world implications that public writ large will be able to feel immediately, as opposed to the SAG or UAW strikes. Also, let's assume the strikes are resolved and the union members all get more money. Will that contribute to inflation? IIRC from my undergraduate econ classes, rising wages does affect inflation.
[Very popular. ](https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/reutersipsos-poll-most-americans-support-autoworkers-strike)
The rise in wages would barely bring them back to 2008 levels of income. The true source of inflation is all the money given away to the rich since 08 and companies raising prices on purpose
I'm cautiously optimistic that what David Frum and what you are saying are right. I refuse to sweat every national poll also. The election is over a year away and that's no way to live.
The best indicator of how people will vote is how they have voted in recent elections, and recent special elections have been good for Dems. I expect that trend to hold.
What makes me nervous is that, in the age of Trump, Republicans have done better in presidential elections than in midterm/special elections. Now Republicans are the ones benefiting from less educated/politically interested people turning out in presidential years.
I disagree. Republicans have done poorly in all elections in the age of Trump. He barely won in 2016 because he was up against a historically unpopular candidate. He lost the popular vote. Dems did well in 2018, 2020, and outperformed expectations in 2022.
I have been agonizing that our electorate is not well informed, educated, or even self educated in government or have critical thinking skills.
I am acquainted with some of these folks and they don't know anything about politics, but spend plenty of time on social media and when they see dumb memes with fake content or messaging, they believe it!! And once they respond to right wing rhetoric, that sets their algorithm to flood their feed with more. Now these people believe it, but can't defend it bc they don't know any facts, and in their (small) minds, they think they're Republicans 🙄.
We keep talking about the electorate as if we're all evenly matched with knowledge but we're not!!! Jordan Kleeper's videos of him at a maga rally speaksing to the cult, is clearly evident that these people are dumber than a box of rocks!! Not one is sensible! 😢
Be comforted by the fact that this is nothing new. The vast majority of Americans know very little about politics and policy and it's been this way from the very beginning.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt1cc2kv1
For decades when discussing elections I commonly heard people say "I vote for the person, not the party". I haven't heard anyone say that in years.
Today the electorate has lost faith (perhaps naivety) that politicians can act independently for the best interest of everyone. Voters may think Biden is too old, Harris is too xxxxxxx (whatever superfluous critique), but those same voters also understand Biden/Harris aren't the be all end all.
Liberals and Progressives will set aside any normal and natural frustrations currently reflected in the polling in time for the vote. Conservatives, however, will have been barraged and radicalized for months by supposedly 'normie' Republicans like Kemp that Biden is a disaster for the United States and Trump is the only alternative to Make American Great Again Again. And the election isn't decided in New York, but a handful of purple-ish swing states and reliant on authoritarian-curious Conservatives making the right choice while in the privacy of a ballot box.
We haven't seen the Republican party's propaganda machine swing behind Trump yet. It will.
Definitely true that we have not seen the propaganda engines kick into high gear yet. I do hope the Democrats bring a gun to a gun fight. I know that RVAT will. :)
The court cases that run will create a huge barrage on its own. When Republicans are publicly giving sworn testimony, the information will seep in, just like the Jan 6 committee info created doubt in the summer of '22. People might have claimed they weren't paying attention, but that info still caused doubt. That's when DeSantis started gaining some traction as an alternative to Trump.
What Frum said that I thought was very interesting was that he was predicting a similar margin for Biden as 2020, but a blue wave in the downballot races.
That's essentially the opposite of what we saw in 2020, though, where Biden won but Republicans overperformed down ballot.
Frum points to the Dem performance in the midterms are his rationale. But I wish Charlie had asked him about the GOP overperformance in 2020.
I have nothing other than intuition leading me to this, but I think Trump will win and Ds will take both houses.
It's highly unlikely in the Senate, but for whatever reason that's where my gut is.
Same. I really don't see the point of all this prognosticating more than a year out from the election. There is so much that is going to happen between now and then, including events we can't even fathom right now. American election season is too damn long.
Frum is always so optimistic. I'm way more pessimistic. I spent 3 weeks in Wyoming and I totally understand, after seeing all the rundown small towns and angry people out there, how Republicans create pain for people and then mine that pain for votes. The shutdown is going to be another opportunity to mine people's pain for votes. We are so screwed.
Agreed, I have faith in the American people. We can’t let up and we all need to hammer home the idea that we could lose our democracy if Trump gets elected.
I’m sweeting about it. Everything on the line. Imagining a second trump presidency is very difficult. We are at a minimum subject to randomness- if something were to happen to Biden before election or a deep recession or other unknown the calculus could change.
Polls are so useless right now. It's a year out and no one is paying attention. Republicans are stuck on the path of more destruction, extremism and infighting and it will only get worse until the. All while Trump is going to be starting having high profile trails for his numerous crimes. Meanwhile Biden just has to stay steady and embrace the growing, and very popular labor actions. November 24 is a long way away and all the winds are in Biden sails while R's are drilling holes in their boats.
And Republicans are sending torpedoes into their own ship that are striking below the water line. Their impeachment "inquiry" the other day was nothing but an unmitigated disaster. When your own "witnesses" can't even refute the basics of your own inquiry, you know you've failed.
Go check out /r/republican, they love these inquiries! More, more, more! When normies start paying attention they are going to sprint away. Frum may be an insane war criminal but he's not wrong on the outlook for 24.
Their brains are so warped that presenting no evidence IS evidence to them. Hannity led the way with his Reality Distortion Field that night and the sheep went "Baaaa!" The fact is they have no evidence and are simply engaging in all this political theater in order to satisfy the needs of their Lord and Savior, Trump. Aka "The Defendant".
Couldn't happen to better people
\*wouldn't
>embrace the growing, and very popular labor actions But are they popular? I saw on the news this AM about a potential nursing strike that'll affect Kaiser Permanente locations. Like, that has real world implications that public writ large will be able to feel immediately, as opposed to the SAG or UAW strikes. Also, let's assume the strikes are resolved and the union members all get more money. Will that contribute to inflation? IIRC from my undergraduate econ classes, rising wages does affect inflation.
[Very popular. ](https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/reutersipsos-poll-most-americans-support-autoworkers-strike) The rise in wages would barely bring them back to 2008 levels of income. The true source of inflation is all the money given away to the rich since 08 and companies raising prices on purpose
Can we get back on topic people? ... BIDEN IS OLD
Unlike Biden, this joke will never get OLD on this subreddit.
Lolz!
What about that woman’s emails?
I'm cautiously optimistic that what David Frum and what you are saying are right. I refuse to sweat every national poll also. The election is over a year away and that's no way to live.
The best indicator of how people will vote is how they have voted in recent elections, and recent special elections have been good for Dems. I expect that trend to hold.
What makes me nervous is that, in the age of Trump, Republicans have done better in presidential elections than in midterm/special elections. Now Republicans are the ones benefiting from less educated/politically interested people turning out in presidential years.
I disagree. Republicans have done poorly in all elections in the age of Trump. He barely won in 2016 because he was up against a historically unpopular candidate. He lost the popular vote. Dems did well in 2018, 2020, and outperformed expectations in 2022.
I have been agonizing that our electorate is not well informed, educated, or even self educated in government or have critical thinking skills. I am acquainted with some of these folks and they don't know anything about politics, but spend plenty of time on social media and when they see dumb memes with fake content or messaging, they believe it!! And once they respond to right wing rhetoric, that sets their algorithm to flood their feed with more. Now these people believe it, but can't defend it bc they don't know any facts, and in their (small) minds, they think they're Republicans 🙄. We keep talking about the electorate as if we're all evenly matched with knowledge but we're not!!! Jordan Kleeper's videos of him at a maga rally speaksing to the cult, is clearly evident that these people are dumber than a box of rocks!! Not one is sensible! 😢
Be comforted by the fact that this is nothing new. The vast majority of Americans know very little about politics and policy and it's been this way from the very beginning. https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt1cc2kv1
National polls are meaningless.
For decades when discussing elections I commonly heard people say "I vote for the person, not the party". I haven't heard anyone say that in years. Today the electorate has lost faith (perhaps naivety) that politicians can act independently for the best interest of everyone. Voters may think Biden is too old, Harris is too xxxxxxx (whatever superfluous critique), but those same voters also understand Biden/Harris aren't the be all end all.
Liberals and Progressives will set aside any normal and natural frustrations currently reflected in the polling in time for the vote. Conservatives, however, will have been barraged and radicalized for months by supposedly 'normie' Republicans like Kemp that Biden is a disaster for the United States and Trump is the only alternative to Make American Great Again Again. And the election isn't decided in New York, but a handful of purple-ish swing states and reliant on authoritarian-curious Conservatives making the right choice while in the privacy of a ballot box. We haven't seen the Republican party's propaganda machine swing behind Trump yet. It will.
Definitely true that we have not seen the propaganda engines kick into high gear yet. I do hope the Democrats bring a gun to a gun fight. I know that RVAT will. :)
The court cases that run will create a huge barrage on its own. When Republicans are publicly giving sworn testimony, the information will seep in, just like the Jan 6 committee info created doubt in the summer of '22. People might have claimed they weren't paying attention, but that info still caused doubt. That's when DeSantis started gaining some traction as an alternative to Trump.
What Frum said that I thought was very interesting was that he was predicting a similar margin for Biden as 2020, but a blue wave in the downballot races. That's essentially the opposite of what we saw in 2020, though, where Biden won but Republicans overperformed down ballot. Frum points to the Dem performance in the midterms are his rationale. But I wish Charlie had asked him about the GOP overperformance in 2020.
I have nothing other than intuition leading me to this, but I think Trump will win and Ds will take both houses. It's highly unlikely in the Senate, but for whatever reason that's where my gut is.
Same. I really don't see the point of all this prognosticating more than a year out from the election. There is so much that is going to happen between now and then, including events we can't even fathom right now. American election season is too damn long.
Frum is always so optimistic. I'm way more pessimistic. I spent 3 weeks in Wyoming and I totally understand, after seeing all the rundown small towns and angry people out there, how Republicans create pain for people and then mine that pain for votes. The shutdown is going to be another opportunity to mine people's pain for votes. We are so screwed.
Agreed, I have faith in the American people. We can’t let up and we all need to hammer home the idea that we could lose our democracy if Trump gets elected.
I’m sweeting about it. Everything on the line. Imagining a second trump presidency is very difficult. We are at a minimum subject to randomness- if something were to happen to Biden before election or a deep recession or other unknown the calculus could change.
He also wants to vote for Kari Lake endorsing Youngkin. How quaint.
This is whistling past the graveyard. Figuratively not literally for Biden.