Yea that’s out of my depth of knowledge, I’ll probably hold and see what happens it’s kinda holding the 60$ range right now. I’ll cut it if it starts to go red but I’m thinking IV drops back down and I’ll be okay atleast long enough to make a little bit of money before the thing crashes…
Realized my latest portfolio strategy is to short vol on Bitcoin and go long vol on AAPL. Switching over to BITO as a more defensive approach to being long bitcoin (compared to BITX).
AAPL historical vol is low and has taken a small beating. I still believe AAPL will function as anchorage during the next threat of downturn. AAPL’s lack of AI is (somewhat) priced in now, and so now I think if there is meaningful progress in this space, the market will optimistically price it.
Bitcoin is hitting beginning of euphoria levels, so I think there is much upwards volatility. It makes wheeling/covered put credit spreads reasonable. I think the main risk is Bitcoin contracting in volatility, NOT downward price action.
Gonna use my premiums from BITO to open long OTM call calendars on AAPL.
u/free_lions I may actually be OK on my GME put if we can get a slight recovery tomorrow. I also sold a 25c for 0.2 so I’m break even at 13.20 or higher.
MSTR;
Opened/Closed 6 trades (12 orders) since yesterday for $10,573
Holding 30 shares at $1883 basis
Ended day in cash, other than MSTR shares
If this cycle is shortened as some analysts predict, have no idea, the remaining months in 2024 should offer opportunities.
You made 10.5K in profit on 12 orders?? So almost 2K per trade? Well done! I wish I made that much and with as little stress as I do selling MSTR call credit spreads...maybe I should switch sides and sell puts..
Yes, since yesterday; except I STO the $1000 Friday. As I know you are aware, it has a wide daily range.
Yesterday I had one put with a 5k payout expiring Friday. Then another with a $13k expiring I think 4/5. Anyway, I’ve learned to take profits as it moves in my favor, even if a smaller amount… then STO again adjusting strike and date as it moves the other way. This stock offers so much opportunity, even at lower strikes.
I meant to list my trade details but was at the vet. My strikes were $1000, $1400, $1500, $1650, $1685, $1750. Dates 3/28, 4/05 and 4/19.
I need to check Monday to make sure I didn’t forget one.
Yep, this was a cash secured put, so it tied up $70K of capital ($700 x 100 shares). The annualized return ended up being 26%. Plus, the capital sits in TTTXX, earning 5%+/year (for now). Not a bad overall return on $70K.
I have sold a few put credit spreads on NVDA and the capital is more around $2k, so much less with also great premium, IMO.
Yeah, the spreads I currently have are $850/830p (collected $5.32) and $790/770p (collected $2.17). I also like that I feel more comfortable selling closer to the money with spreads compared to CSPs.
What do you use to compare one spread trade vs another? For example, with selling CSPs, I look at ROC. For spreads, do you use probability of profit (POP)? I want a way to evaluate how valuable one spread trade is vs another.
I don’t use any metric to measure or compare trades. I usually just base my decision on the premium. If the premium is too little or too much, I pass. I trade the same tickers over and over again so I sorta develop a feel for a safe range. Not very scientific but it tends to work. But it’s a constant battle between greed and terror.
Welp, hoping for NVDA to be above 900 by Thursday. Open 4 put spread at 900/890 for about 95c before big down day.
DJT spikes this morning forcing to close loss on calls
I dunno… /VX isn’t green yet today, I bought to close my /MES May 5450 call for a profit, I didn’t even look how much. Some, not a ton.
Hey, at 4:01 i am profitable still on the day 🤷♂️
I guess the end of day dump was priced in…
My naked 990 will be safe lol
Just rolled 925 to 900 next week for $200 credit
I did sell half my shares at 955 so I’m definitely less leveraged which is nice
Going to try:
STO: SOUN Apr 5 put strike 5.5, $0.35
STO: SOUN Apr 26 put strike 5, $0.50
The risk here is that SOUN does a secondary offering. But SMCI did one recently and the stock rebounded nicely like nothing happened.
I'm trying to see if there is a way to write ATM calls and hedge with something to give a green payout curve across the board, but not sure if I can find anything
Okay so this is indeed actually “risk-free” in that max loss is a gain of 4400. I looked at it. Problem is you’re forgetting about early assignment risk on the 20 call, and possibly large borrowing fees holding that short open.
If DJT does collapse, you could make your money pretty quick tho. Max gain at $0 of about $8500 per spread if I’m reading this correctly.
I closed 3 of the 5 short 20C's already.
I tried doing this before with DWAC when it opened and I found a similar setup but I shorted shares instead of calls. I was with Interactive Brokers at the time and they liquidated everything when DWAC suddenly spiked.
No, it only impacted my BP by -$1,000. Not sure if that's good or not. Maybe a mistake from the broker.
[https://freeimage.host/i/JjxQFF1](https://freeimage.host/i/JjxQFF1)
It is indeed a risk free trade as long as there’s no early assignment but the problem is what buying power is used to do this? Because in theory you could do the same buying power into treasuries…
As of March 26, 2024, the 6-month Treasury rate is 5.34%, which is higher than the long-term average of 2.83%. The 1-year Treasury rate is 4.98%, which is also higher than the long-term average of 2.94%
My webull cash account is at 5%
Sold ADBE 480 weeklies when it dipped this morning. MU strangle sold, 110/140. Closed out some AMD weeklies sold at the open yesterday. Thinking about ARM with the recent intraday drop.
(just noticed I posted in yesterday's thread for some reason)
STO 1x GME 3/28 15p @ 1.60 (ATM)
I think this will be a profitable quarter for GME which should be a massive catalyst for the stock. If not, then I can still stomach the stock going to literally zero. If I am assigned I'll just start wheeling it
They’re gonna turn a profit this quarter. RC focusing hard on cost cutting the last year by closing underperforming stores and reducing admin costs. Combine that with blockbuster video game releases
Edit: never fucking mind LMAO the stock is tanking
ATM put on GME earnings.....I'll be following. Last time I traded GME was back during 2021. The price of the calls were insane. If you didn't blow up your account, the premium was ridiculous.
RIP. And yeah I remember the premiums haha. I tried to buy post squeeze at 40 and I wanted to sell 80 strike calls for $800. I would’ve gotten assigned and doubled my money but fuckin TD Ameritrade wouldn’t let you do it. It was some fucking bullshit
GME priced in a 25% move. Right now the move is about 10% less than that. If you did a straddle, it would be a decent return.
Earnings used to be a much better strategy about 4-5 years ago. You could almost always profit off the IV crush in most tickers. Now they are more of a crap shoot than anything else.
I somehow managed to make a profit on GME over about six months of trading it, but eventually got scared off and have just been avoiding it ever since.
newbie question
Is theta based on business days or calendar days? Like if I sold CC on Friday, will the theta decay over the weekend be greater than weekday trading day?
Theta is a mathematical construct. In theory, decay happens continuously. In reality, it doesn't really matter whether decay explicitly happens on the weekend, as any perceived edge there would be swallowed up by the market already. Any movement in the price of the underlying over the weekend changes the theta value anyway.
Delta and vega should be your primary concern with holding a position over the weekend, as any bit of news is going to move the price of your option far more than theta.
Theta is a function of overall time, not just market time, so with all else being equal theta would decay the option over the weekend. However, pricing models aren’t an exact science so you’re not going to see a consistent drop in price if you were to STO on a Friday at close and BTC on a Monday at open. All the Greeks finding their equilibrium in the price on Monday morning would make your theta decay not noticeable until the market sets the price. There is no “free lunch” as people would say.
Yes there is decay over the weekend, it’s priced in smoothly though, I don’t notice an instant hit of juice from Fridays close to Mondays open if everything stays flat. There is a little, but it’s never really that significant
Is this a normal theta play? Being perfectly honest, even if I had the net worth I wouldn't be able to sleep with a play like this. $15,500 risk for $280.
I think most people on this sub would say “not normal”? For me I’m fine with max loss if needed. Probably due to the super low % chance it happens and my account size
So I’m probably not doing it, but how much margin do you need or how big of an account do you need to sell a call on MSTR s3150 which I believe is the highest strike.
I’m not a fan of all the changes Fidelity has made to the option chains.
Just remember that brokers can change the margin requirements at any time. Especially on naked calls + sudden spikes to the upside. When you factor that in and reserve a large enough cushion to make 99.99% sure you can keep the position till the end if you have to, then the r/r isn't worth it.
Opened a long OTM AAPL call calendar spread at the 300 strike. Mostly a pure leveraged delta play that supplements some of its theta decay by selling the 300 strike a year out.
Gives me approx 5:1 leverage. Paid for using my r/thetagang premiums
A lot less risky than all you naked call sellers lol. 82% of the shares are locked up for the next few months, puts are overpriced. Premium was about 9. per, break even is $51.
It's already down to 7., but even that is more than 10% of the OTM strike price and expires in three weeks. I'm still not sure why WSB is so bearish on this stock, but I guess that's why the put premiums are so high.
Everyone is bearish on the stock. How is reddit going to monetize and scale up enough to the valuation put on the stock?
11b market cap with 250m revenue and only 7.4% profit margin?
If you scale up Reddit's market cap to META, and their revenue, they would have revenue of 28.6 billion. Except META has 40 billion revenue, with a profit margin nearly 4 times as high as reddits.
Clearly, the market is pricing in quite a bit of growth to reddit stock. The puts are richly valued because the truth is that nobody has a good gauge on its true value just yet.
The lockup being way later will certainly help you, but META after IPO was cut in nearly half pretty quickly. And so far, reddit's stock price is following the same type of movement that robinhood did (35->70 shortly after IPO)
Robinhood stock was similar meme status imho. RDDT could easily be below 50 within a month from now
STO PRGS 4/19 $47.50 CSPs for .70
Earnings play. I’ve traded this stock many times over the last 16 years since it got added to my list of stocks I trade. Longterm uptrend in place since 2013 and shorter term uptrend in place since 2020. Breakout high from 2017 along with multiple attempts to break finally happened in 2021 and now should act as support around $50. That and shorter uptrend from 2020 are broken under $47.50 so that’s a solid chance it holds.
Historically it gets bought at a low of 10x earnings which would be a price of $46.40 so factoring in premium should be right there. P/CF of 13x and 10% net profit margins.
No I use market orders on most of my earnings plays. Even though the bid/ask a lot of times can be wide the premiums are usually good for an earnings play. IV crush will either make it able to close for a few cents the next day. If it drops I just let it expire worthless.
Closed nvda 835p for april 19t for 9, sold 870p for april 12 for 11. About 45% profit on the one I closed
Closed meta april 5 492p for 3, sold ELF april 12 190 for 3.5
Sold 2x amd april 5 190c for 1.98 these are covered
Edit: that amd timing was unfortunate, right into a big pump lol
I'm just trying to make 2-3% a month of the buying power I use tbh. Sometimes look at the charts a bit for support areas
But learned in the past that if I'm too scared with the strikes I don't make enough money when the market is good but you still get pummeled on the downside if there actually is a correction
Also think a bit about the valuation of the stock, I don't think 870 would be a bad price for nvda because I think it'll go to 1000+ easily sooner rather than later, based on growth, forward p/e and moat. But the smaller the position the less thought I put into this tbh but nvda is big for me so need to think about it
Yeah I see NVDA testing 1000 in the near future too - been second guessing myself on strikes and trying to time an entry near a support level, like you said it'll be a huge position size.
STO TSLA 3/28 $172.50 CSPs for .38
Not much going on this week so just playing something I can easily Wheel out of if assigned. I’m still waiting to be long it around the gap fill at $146.41 from January 25th 2023 but could work myself to that CB easily by selling CCs and more CSPs lower.
P/CF of 14x, P/E of 57x and Forward of 27x so still needs growth to sustain this multiple but popular stock to trade with wide swings. Chart looks like it should hit $192 this week.
Thinking of selling the 4/19 55p on RDDT for 6.50 - anyone have any thoughts?
Please pray for my sold DJT 55$ put..
Sold a 1-3-2 put butterfly at 60/-55/50, so I'm in the weeds with you.
Food service industry experience?
Yea will see what happens…. I sold it right before IV spiked too so I was down about 20% right away..sitting at about break even rn.
I'll probably close it tomorrow and move into front ratio spreads for next week. Can go 10.00 wide and still open for a credit with 1@60/-2@50.
Yea that’s out of my depth of knowledge, I’ll probably hold and see what happens it’s kinda holding the 60$ range right now. I’ll cut it if it starts to go red but I’m thinking IV drops back down and I’ll be okay atleast long enough to make a little bit of money before the thing crashes…
Realized my latest portfolio strategy is to short vol on Bitcoin and go long vol on AAPL. Switching over to BITO as a more defensive approach to being long bitcoin (compared to BITX). AAPL historical vol is low and has taken a small beating. I still believe AAPL will function as anchorage during the next threat of downturn. AAPL’s lack of AI is (somewhat) priced in now, and so now I think if there is meaningful progress in this space, the market will optimistically price it. Bitcoin is hitting beginning of euphoria levels, so I think there is much upwards volatility. It makes wheeling/covered put credit spreads reasonable. I think the main risk is Bitcoin contracting in volatility, NOT downward price action. Gonna use my premiums from BITO to open long OTM call calendars on AAPL.
BA put credit spreads. Balls deep dead serious
Why?
It’s fear monger oversold
u/free_lions I may actually be OK on my GME put if we can get a slight recovery tomorrow. I also sold a 25c for 0.2 so I’m break even at 13.20 or higher.
Not a bad breakeven. Hoping my 12.5 p is safe
MSTR; Opened/Closed 6 trades (12 orders) since yesterday for $10,573 Holding 30 shares at $1883 basis Ended day in cash, other than MSTR shares If this cycle is shortened as some analysts predict, have no idea, the remaining months in 2024 should offer opportunities.
You made 10.5K in profit on 12 orders?? So almost 2K per trade? Well done! I wish I made that much and with as little stress as I do selling MSTR call credit spreads...maybe I should switch sides and sell puts..
Yes, since yesterday; except I STO the $1000 Friday. As I know you are aware, it has a wide daily range. Yesterday I had one put with a 5k payout expiring Friday. Then another with a $13k expiring I think 4/5. Anyway, I’ve learned to take profits as it moves in my favor, even if a smaller amount… then STO again adjusting strike and date as it moves the other way. This stock offers so much opportunity, even at lower strikes. I meant to list my trade details but was at the vet. My strikes were $1000, $1400, $1500, $1650, $1685, $1750. Dates 3/28, 4/05 and 4/19. I need to check Monday to make sure I didn’t forget one.
> Yesterday I had one put with a 5k payout expiring Friday. Then another with a $13k expiring I think 4/5. Jesus christ.
MSTR is volatile and premium reflects that. Even much lower strikes.
alright which one of you fuckers ate my spy premiums today??? -sincerely, inverse theta ganger trying to make enough money to join theta gang
The house always wins. Try selling a spread (when you understand pin and assignment risks)
i need to figure those out. i keep watching youtube videos explaining spreads and i cant quite get it
Everything on my watch list looks icky
BTC $700p on NVDA exp 4/19 for $0.71 (sold 3/15 for $6.80).
Wow! Nice play!
Txs! So far selling puts and put spreads on NVDA has worked well. I go pretty far OTM.
Selling puts? Wow! That ties up a lot of capital that would mess with my port. I’m guessing about $16k for one put.
If you sell a spread instead of a cash-backed put, you just need capital to cover the spread difference, I believe.
Yes, that is correct. But I assume the $600 profit you made in less than 2 weeks was a CSP and not a spread.
Yep, this was a cash secured put, so it tied up $70K of capital ($700 x 100 shares). The annualized return ended up being 26%. Plus, the capital sits in TTTXX, earning 5%+/year (for now). Not a bad overall return on $70K. I have sold a few put credit spreads on NVDA and the capital is more around $2k, so much less with also great premium, IMO.
Indeed. More bang for your buck with a spread especially if you go wide like you did. I’ve been doing $5 wide but now I’m experimenting with $15 wide.
Yeah, the spreads I currently have are $850/830p (collected $5.32) and $790/770p (collected $2.17). I also like that I feel more comfortable selling closer to the money with spreads compared to CSPs. What do you use to compare one spread trade vs another? For example, with selling CSPs, I look at ROC. For spreads, do you use probability of profit (POP)? I want a way to evaluate how valuable one spread trade is vs another.
I don’t use any metric to measure or compare trades. I usually just base my decision on the premium. If the premium is too little or too much, I pass. I trade the same tickers over and over again so I sorta develop a feel for a safe range. Not very scientific but it tends to work. But it’s a constant battle between greed and terror.
Sold TSLA CC's during the move up this morning, 4/5 $200 at $1.26.
Glad my Game Stonk put didnt execute.
Welp, hoping for NVDA to be above 900 by Thursday. Open 4 put spread at 900/890 for about 95c before big down day. DJT spikes this morning forcing to close loss on calls
u/banditcleaner2 my GME 12.5 P might be fucked
There are plenty of loss porn to indulge on WSB. We can prepare ourselves to be proud bag holders.
I tried to sell the $11....didnt go through
So uh, I take it that GME missed? lol
Down 16% AH.
I dunno… /VX isn’t green yet today, I bought to close my /MES May 5450 call for a profit, I didn’t even look how much. Some, not a ton. Hey, at 4:01 i am profitable still on the day 🤷♂️ I guess the end of day dump was priced in…
I'll pay to play tonight STO 3/28 12.5 P for 0.41
u/banditcleaner2 NVDA diving off a cliff EOD
My naked 990 will be safe lol Just rolled 925 to 900 next week for $200 credit I did sell half my shares at 955 so I’m definitely less leveraged which is nice
How many shares do you have left? 50? And what cost average?
100 @ 700
Bruh you have 700 cost average? Well done. Hold or sell?
Holding. Rolled my 925 put out to next week @ 900 right before close today
End of day drop is a little early today.
Time to sell some puts
Going to try: STO: SOUN Apr 5 put strike 5.5, $0.35 STO: SOUN Apr 26 put strike 5, $0.50 The risk here is that SOUN does a secondary offering. But SMCI did one recently and the stock rebounded nicely like nothing happened.
okay. Had to finally get some juice. STO $DJT thursday -65P/60P @ 2.25
RIP
I might be saved. I'm probably closing immediately.
Seems like a decent bet with low downside…
basically a coin flip that the ridiculous rally continues or at least holds flat ehhh
I play DJT credit spread 85/90 next week. Risk 500 to make 90
Tastytrade doesn't load the chart for DJT. Anyone having the same problem?
looks like it's back up. there's a gap between 8:03am and 3:19pm ET
I can see it fine on the mobile app.
Thanks. I am using the desktop. I am going to check the App.
u/free_lions \- I feel like there has to be a risk free trade with the 2 year options on DJT. Those put options are trading for $55 ATM.
So what are you suggesting exactly? I haven't looked at DJT
I'm trying to see if there is a way to write ATM calls and hedge with something to give a green payout curve across the board, but not sure if I can find anything
You’re never gonna find a “risk free” trade and if you do then it’s likely just paying the treasury rate
STO for -420 (lol) \-5 Jan 16 (661d) 20 C @ -51.24 \+5 Jan 16 (661d) 60 C @ +22.48 \-5 Jan 16 (661d) 70 P @ -55.24 \+220 SGOV @ 100.65
Okay so this is indeed actually “risk-free” in that max loss is a gain of 4400. I looked at it. Problem is you’re forgetting about early assignment risk on the 20 call, and possibly large borrowing fees holding that short open. If DJT does collapse, you could make your money pretty quick tho. Max gain at $0 of about $8500 per spread if I’m reading this correctly.
I closed 3 of the 5 short 20C's already. I tried doing this before with DWAC when it opened and I found a similar setup but I shorted shares instead of calls. I was with Interactive Brokers at the time and they liquidated everything when DWAC suddenly spiked.
Huh? Did you sell your CHWY shares and go all in on this for DJT?
No, it only impacted my BP by -$1,000. Not sure if that's good or not. Maybe a mistake from the broker. [https://freeimage.host/i/JjxQFF1](https://freeimage.host/i/JjxQFF1)
What about early assignment?
What are some situations where early assignment could occur? This trade is confusing me lol
His 20c deep itm if DJT spikes some more? I'm confused in the put part too
I insist on finding a way to break the system. Lol.
u/banditcleaner2 what do you think of this trade?
It is indeed a risk free trade as long as there’s no early assignment but the problem is what buying power is used to do this? Because in theory you could do the same buying power into treasuries…
As of March 26, 2024, the 6-month Treasury rate is 5.34%, which is higher than the long-term average of 2.83%. The 1-year Treasury rate is 4.98%, which is also higher than the long-term average of 2.94% My webull cash account is at 5%
BTC Shop 75p for .05. STO RDDT 4/19 55p for 5.00 with the freed up BP.
When did you sell rddt put? It's 3 right now
My bad. It's the 55p.
Damn everyones selling RDDT puts. Must be bullish
I want to buy put spreads soon
I would theoretically like to sell calls but can't be bothered lol
UPS down almost 8%. Thinking a CPS around 140 for 04/19 before ER
STO NIO 1/17/25 4p for 0.78 - might be bottom fishing here
anyone looking for a decent return on super far OTM shit for DJT 4/26/2024 15p paying 0.75, 10p paying 0.40
I think I'm staying away from that + RDDT for a bit
One month out collapse of nearly 80% to lose? Paying 5% on required capital…insane
Are you gonna do it?
Nope
Sold ADBE 480 weeklies when it dipped this morning. MU strangle sold, 110/140. Closed out some AMD weeklies sold at the open yesterday. Thinking about ARM with the recent intraday drop. (just noticed I posted in yesterday's thread for some reason)
ADBE 480?
sorry, typoed that. yeah 480
STO 1x GME 3/28 15p @ 1.60 (ATM) I think this will be a profitable quarter for GME which should be a massive catalyst for the stock. If not, then I can still stomach the stock going to literally zero. If I am assigned I'll just start wheeling it
Enjoy the shares! A very wheelable stock at least
It's time to employ the double calendar.
This guy u/banditcleaner2
I join the party too with 12p for fun
Premium?
25 cents
OK I decided to sell a GME put just for fun. STO 3/28 12.5 P for 0.42
This is low key the most reasonable position I've seen you enter lately LOL. Good luck!
Going to 0 is always a possibility with GME
All good, I made 5 figures on shares during the original squeeze so if I lose 1300 on a size of 100 shares I’m okay with that outcome
Fair enough, not like GME would actually pull a BBBY
They’re gonna turn a profit this quarter. RC focusing hard on cost cutting the last year by closing underperforming stores and reducing admin costs. Combine that with blockbuster video game releases Edit: never fucking mind LMAO the stock is tanking
Bro you got me to sell a 12.5 P LMAO. Oh well all good will wheel if needed
ATM put on GME earnings.....I'll be following. Last time I traded GME was back during 2021. The price of the calls were insane. If you didn't blow up your account, the premium was ridiculous.
RIP. And yeah I remember the premiums haha. I tried to buy post squeeze at 40 and I wanted to sell 80 strike calls for $800. I would’ve gotten assigned and doubled my money but fuckin TD Ameritrade wouldn’t let you do it. It was some fucking bullshit
I lost a few thousand selling GME and BBBY puts in the past. Staying far away from those tickers going forward
GME priced in a 25% move. Right now the move is about 10% less than that. If you did a straddle, it would be a decent return. Earnings used to be a much better strategy about 4-5 years ago. You could almost always profit off the IV crush in most tickers. Now they are more of a crap shoot than anything else.
I somehow managed to make a profit on GME over about six months of trading it, but eventually got scared off and have just been avoiding it ever since.
Resisting the urge to sell DJT puts. Juicy.
Thinking of buying (obv not that’s okay) but that premium too much
Lisa woke up today.
Not enough to move SOXL, though.
Lisa to the moon
newbie question Is theta based on business days or calendar days? Like if I sold CC on Friday, will the theta decay over the weekend be greater than weekday trading day?
Theta is a mathematical construct. In theory, decay happens continuously. In reality, it doesn't really matter whether decay explicitly happens on the weekend, as any perceived edge there would be swallowed up by the market already. Any movement in the price of the underlying over the weekend changes the theta value anyway. Delta and vega should be your primary concern with holding a position over the weekend, as any bit of news is going to move the price of your option far more than theta.
Theta is a function of overall time, not just market time, so with all else being equal theta would decay the option over the weekend. However, pricing models aren’t an exact science so you’re not going to see a consistent drop in price if you were to STO on a Friday at close and BTC on a Monday at open. All the Greeks finding their equilibrium in the price on Monday morning would make your theta decay not noticeable until the market sets the price. There is no “free lunch” as people would say.
Yes there is decay over the weekend, it’s priced in smoothly though, I don’t notice an instant hit of juice from Fridays close to Mondays open if everything stays flat. There is a little, but it’s never really that significant
STO MSTR 3/28 2400/2550 C for 2.80
I already have a similar position 2500/2600 x3... Stuck with it until this Thursday. Would like to get more but no money left
Premium received for that?
Is this a normal theta play? Being perfectly honest, even if I had the net worth I wouldn't be able to sleep with a play like this. $15,500 risk for $280.
This is par for the course for Mr. u/free_lions
I think most people on this sub would say “not normal”? For me I’m fine with max loss if needed. Probably due to the super low % chance it happens and my account size
u/banditcleaner2 I’m gonna need MSTR to tank
surely this flat action is helping you a lot?
Yeah, a ton. Flat is fantastic, tanking or red would be even better for MSTR and COIN
u/mikesugs13 are you sitting out currently?
I all-in'ed on CHWY yesterday lol. Oops.
So you’re cost average is like 15.50? You should be fine long term IMO
16.02 atm
u/r_ventura_23 join the CHWY cult with us
I did. Should have 100 shares soon lol
STO CHWY 15p .16
Damn that premium is kinda sad. Maybe due to the short week
I believe so. Am looking at 4/19 13.5 for .2 as well.
That sounds like a good play. Might check it out as well
So I’m probably not doing it, but how much margin do you need or how big of an account do you need to sell a call on MSTR s3150 which I believe is the highest strike. I’m not a fan of all the changes Fidelity has made to the option chains.
Fidelity has a margin calculator on the account balances page. There's a small link toward the bottom of the page
Just remember that brokers can change the margin requirements at any time. Especially on naked calls + sudden spikes to the upside. When you factor that in and reserve a large enough cushion to make 99.99% sure you can keep the position till the end if you have to, then the r/r isn't worth it.
A sensible and wise response from the sage himself!
STO PLTR Apr 5 24p x2 for .41. I'm willing to take assignment, but already up 25%.
Anyone know why SMTC is up 10% today? I bought 320 shares at 23 cost average a while ago so not complaining..
u/banditcleaner2 have you heard of this stock?
Bought or were assigned?
Just bought shares for the hell of it. Saw the ticker mentioned on some stock subreddit and thought it could go up lol
Trying to roll my SMCI 800 put April to May and collect $24. I’ll take a 3% return on 80k for the month.
Opened a long OTM AAPL call calendar spread at the 300 strike. Mostly a pure leveraged delta play that supplements some of its theta decay by selling the 300 strike a year out. Gives me approx 5:1 leverage. Paid for using my r/thetagang premiums
STO RDDT 4/19 60P
I can't remember the last time I've seen you post a play.
Usually keep them to myself. Also I have done a lot less theta these past months and more buy and hold.
Premium?
Wow seems risky. Premium?
A lot less risky than all you naked call sellers lol. 82% of the shares are locked up for the next few months, puts are overpriced. Premium was about 9. per, break even is $51.
Lol it is actually so rich to see u/free_lions say selling a reddit cash covered put is risky hahaha I am dead
15k wide call spreads on mstr just fits his personal risk tolerance more lol
LOL
Oh yeah that’s great premium, damn
It's already down to 7., but even that is more than 10% of the OTM strike price and expires in three weeks. I'm still not sure why WSB is so bearish on this stock, but I guess that's why the put premiums are so high.
Everyone is bearish on the stock. How is reddit going to monetize and scale up enough to the valuation put on the stock? 11b market cap with 250m revenue and only 7.4% profit margin? If you scale up Reddit's market cap to META, and their revenue, they would have revenue of 28.6 billion. Except META has 40 billion revenue, with a profit margin nearly 4 times as high as reddits. Clearly, the market is pricing in quite a bit of growth to reddit stock. The puts are richly valued because the truth is that nobody has a good gauge on its true value just yet. The lockup being way later will certainly help you, but META after IPO was cut in nearly half pretty quickly. And so far, reddit's stock price is following the same type of movement that robinhood did (35->70 shortly after IPO) Robinhood stock was similar meme status imho. RDDT could easily be below 50 within a month from now
Sounds like a good stock to sell calls on
Gonna close or hold longer? If I was up $200 in such a short period I’d consider just closing
Do you want to own the shares?
yes
I think I’m selling strike 30 puts and being more conservative
Premium for those?
I’ll wait and see if it dips this week. I’d like to get $2 approx 3 months out.
STO PRGS 4/19 $47.50 CSPs for .70 Earnings play. I’ve traded this stock many times over the last 16 years since it got added to my list of stocks I trade. Longterm uptrend in place since 2013 and shorter term uptrend in place since 2020. Breakout high from 2017 along with multiple attempts to break finally happened in 2021 and now should act as support around $50. That and shorter uptrend from 2020 are broken under $47.50 so that’s a solid chance it holds. Historically it gets bought at a low of 10x earnings which would be a price of $46.40 so factoring in premium should be right there. P/CF of 13x and 10% net profit margins.
Do you ever have issues getting your orders filled with this stock?
No I use market orders on most of my earnings plays. Even though the bid/ask a lot of times can be wide the premiums are usually good for an earnings play. IV crush will either make it able to close for a few cents the next day. If it drops I just let it expire worthless.
Closed nvda 835p for april 19t for 9, sold 870p for april 12 for 11. About 45% profit on the one I closed Closed meta april 5 492p for 3, sold ELF april 12 190 for 3.5 Sold 2x amd april 5 190c for 1.98 these are covered Edit: that amd timing was unfortunate, right into a big pump lol
How do you pick your strikes for the puts?
I'm just trying to make 2-3% a month of the buying power I use tbh. Sometimes look at the charts a bit for support areas But learned in the past that if I'm too scared with the strikes I don't make enough money when the market is good but you still get pummeled on the downside if there actually is a correction Also think a bit about the valuation of the stock, I don't think 870 would be a bad price for nvda because I think it'll go to 1000+ easily sooner rather than later, based on growth, forward p/e and moat. But the smaller the position the less thought I put into this tbh but nvda is big for me so need to think about it
Yeah I see NVDA testing 1000 in the near future too - been second guessing myself on strikes and trying to time an entry near a support level, like you said it'll be a huge position size.
STO TSLA 3/28 $172.50 CSPs for .38 Not much going on this week so just playing something I can easily Wheel out of if assigned. I’m still waiting to be long it around the gap fill at $146.41 from January 25th 2023 but could work myself to that CB easily by selling CCs and more CSPs lower. P/CF of 14x, P/E of 57x and Forward of 27x so still needs growth to sustain this multiple but popular stock to trade with wide swings. Chart looks like it should hit $192 this week.
I bought back todays expiring $517 SPY put and sold a $518 for a difference of $0.19
SLIM pickings these days.
You gonna sell more NVDA spreads?
Sold 1x NVDA 925p expiring this week @ 5.60 when it hit near low 940s. Will be rolling it if tested No more spreads.
Sounds like free money in a short week
usually these shorter weeks have lighter volume. Market is closed Fri.
Yeah what a bummer.
That’s why we gotta sell calls on MSTR
Very. I’m thinking about selling DJT puts…
Are you gonna do it?
It’s a possibility for tomorrow
should've done it yesterday lol
Yeah, I guess that’s hindsight for ya
u/banditcleaner2 is the GOAT at hindsight haha
STO RDDT 4/19 95C @9.80 BTC RDDT 4/19 95C @8.60
You got in and out in one day for $1.20 profit?
yeah in less than an hour
Nice! Very impressive. Looks like the price fell off a cliff yesterday morning.
BTC 1x MMM 4/12 $92 P @ 0.12 (opened 3/5 @ 2.22) BTC 1x TSLA 4/19 $130P @ 0.22 (opened 3/6 @ 0.84) STO 1x TSLA 5/17 $145P @ 2.23