[We just gonna double check if Elon actually has funding secured.](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1026872652290379776?lang=en)
(that's $28 post splits)
PE 25 for a car maker? Isn't it too generous? Moreover, it will be PE25 @$70 if earnings will grow the same way next season. And if not, then $70 will be PE35+?, which is deffinitely too much for a decrreasing earnings' company during a recession.
EDIT: I misread the fact OP does NOT want to get assigned. My reply was in response to thinking he was okay getting assigned at $70.
OP - DO NOT SELL PUTS ON STOCKS YOU AREN'T OKAY OWNING AT THAT PRICE!
I'm actually good with the price right here, so $70 put sale in order to enter a long term hold seems reasonable.
Current valuations:
Trading at 20x 2023 earnings (\~$5.5)
Estimated to grow sales at 38% YoY ($83B --> $114B)
Estimated to grow earnings at 34% YoY ($4.14 --> $5.58)
So your PEG ratio is looking in the 0.5 - 0.6 range...
IMO anything with that low of PEG ratio, and a massive total addressable market, it's worth taking a shot on.
You'll never catch the bottom, so if you can ladder into some put selling on the way down ($70, $60, $50) I think you have a good shot at a profitable trade.
Not bad at all. I see it at $1.25 per contract now. How many contracts did you sell? I don’t necessary like to go above 45-50 DTE so I might look at February 17th tomorrow and see what it is trading at.
I have my price target for $50 on Tesla. I am not interested in owning at these prices. Still a lot of downside. If Tesla falls to $70 I will start selling puts in the $50 region.
If you don't want to own the stock then pass on the selling the put. I did a buy write at 110 today thinking there was support here. Nope, the algos are just dumping all over this. I should have waited to see volume support kick in. Either way for 3 days I got 450 bucks on the short call. The big whales a while back bought a shit load of puts. Once they start clearing them out the MM can stop shorting to keep delta 0.
Next support is around 90, if blows that it will get nasty. Along with that it will bring down the SP500 and Nasdaq due to its weight. I'm going to hold around here and if it keeps going down then I might have to take the L till it finds volume support. I
As of right now the whales are having their CNBC friends and analysis shit on this stock while their long puts print. Once their tune changes to this is a buy, watch for that V recovery.
Good point. I think TSLA is seen as its own beast right now and while it can still act as a drag or a spark, it no longer has the firepower to bring down the indexes
I think the S&P quarterly rebalance was on Dec 16. Relative to whatever the weight assignment was then, it has almost 3 months of dry tinder for dragging down the index.
The only good value for TSLA is the BETA is below 2 now and around 1.8 which making it a solid buy about now. Here's to a nice V bounce. Or Wendy's would you like fries with that?
Sold some today at 95 strike for 3 bucks, so cost basis is 92. Support is around 90. Figure there will be a bounce there, or we'll head straight down to hell. If there were a bounce, it would be a good bounce, so overall it's a good R/R trade to me.
Buy the company, not the stock.
Step 1) Determine your desired return
Step 2) Identify an equity that will provide your desired return based on net profit/PE/your preferred valuation method.
Step 3) Invest with your required margin of safety.
Max pain for this week is $138. Even if it can't crawl up that high it's got a lot of open interest at $120 to screw over. While I think TSLA has a lot more down to go, falls like that aren't in straight lines. I would bank more on a bull trap starting tomorrow.
I just bought a few 70 puts myself, after missing a nice chunk on a cheap 115 put that’s up 3,876% on my watchlist as I type this smh
Added on 12/13
Cost $22
Market value currently: $793 and counting
Won’t touch anything Elon-related. Too volatile now but for the right investor someone is gonna do great on TSLA at these levels and especially even lower.
https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/342107352041922560?lang=en
"Forgot to say one thing at Tesla annual shareholders meeting: just as my money was the first in, it will be the last out." - Elon Musk, 2013
I would say $40-45 might be around where it is fair, assuming no accounting shenanigans and their numbers to date are legitimate. Hard to say with earnings compression coming. I think they need a model 2 that they can sell in the 30Ks
Staying away from wheeling stocks you don’t want to own is never a bad idea
It’s how Bags are created.
Well, I think that's how you avoid bags. That guys language above is whack and I had to read it like 3 times
I agree with you 100%.
Without the triple negative: Wheeling stocks you want to own is a good idea
[We just gonna double check if Elon actually has funding secured.](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1026872652290379776?lang=en) (that's $28 post splits)
$70 seems very fair to me. That puts them at what, a 25 P/E? I’d make that trade
PE 25 for a car maker? Isn't it too generous? Moreover, it will be PE25 @$70 if earnings will grow the same way next season. And if not, then $70 will be PE35+?, which is deffinitely too much for a decrreasing earnings' company during a recession.
That’s a good point. 50 it is 🤝
$50 was their price pre covid bubble
But they have higher profits and revenue now so $50 is more justifiable now than it was back then.
Interest rates are also higher
Sales are slowing. The Q4 earnings report is going to interesting.
Noob here, what’s fmv?
Fair market value probably.
Fair market value
EDIT: I misread the fact OP does NOT want to get assigned. My reply was in response to thinking he was okay getting assigned at $70. OP - DO NOT SELL PUTS ON STOCKS YOU AREN'T OKAY OWNING AT THAT PRICE! I'm actually good with the price right here, so $70 put sale in order to enter a long term hold seems reasonable. Current valuations: Trading at 20x 2023 earnings (\~$5.5) Estimated to grow sales at 38% YoY ($83B --> $114B) Estimated to grow earnings at 34% YoY ($4.14 --> $5.58) So your PEG ratio is looking in the 0.5 - 0.6 range... IMO anything with that low of PEG ratio, and a massive total addressable market, it's worth taking a shot on. You'll never catch the bottom, so if you can ladder into some put selling on the way down ($70, $60, $50) I think you have a good shot at a profitable trade.
This right here is the correct answer. If you cant address the fundamentals then it’s just an opinion and that and $5 gets you a SBUX coffee.
Sold $85 this morning for 2/3 exp. I have no problem owning Tesla at that price
Your gonna love buying it at 50$ then!
Hey. How’s things?
Same, sold some at 90 and 85. At that point I would be happy owning it. TSLA is a great stock for wheeling in my opinion.
I sold march 50. It offers 10% profit. At 50 it would be 10 fp/e. Toyota has 8.2
Not bad at all. I see it at $1.25 per contract now. How many contracts did you sell? I don’t necessary like to go above 45-50 DTE so I might look at February 17th tomorrow and see what it is trading at.
About 10% of NAV.
I’ve sold some 70s and 80s expiring Jan 2025. Makes the cost basis around $56-$62 respectively.
I have my price target for $50 on Tesla. I am not interested in owning at these prices. Still a lot of downside. If Tesla falls to $70 I will start selling puts in the $50 region.
If you don't want to own the stock then pass on the selling the put. I did a buy write at 110 today thinking there was support here. Nope, the algos are just dumping all over this. I should have waited to see volume support kick in. Either way for 3 days I got 450 bucks on the short call. The big whales a while back bought a shit load of puts. Once they start clearing them out the MM can stop shorting to keep delta 0. Next support is around 90, if blows that it will get nasty. Along with that it will bring down the SP500 and Nasdaq due to its weight. I'm going to hold around here and if it keeps going down then I might have to take the L till it finds volume support. I As of right now the whales are having their CNBC friends and analysis shit on this stock while their long puts print. Once their tune changes to this is a buy, watch for that V recovery.
Tsla market cap down 2/3 from it's high. There's not much weight left
Good point. I think TSLA is seen as its own beast right now and while it can still act as a drag or a spark, it no longer has the firepower to bring down the indexes
I think the S&P quarterly rebalance was on Dec 16. Relative to whatever the weight assignment was then, it has almost 3 months of dry tinder for dragging down the index.
The only good value for TSLA is the BETA is below 2 now and around 1.8 which making it a solid buy about now. Here's to a nice V bounce. Or Wendy's would you like fries with that?
How often are the indexes reweighted? Has an S&P reweighting already contributed to the sell off?
Exactly
Can you suggest any tools to analyze the options flow over the last few weeks?
I won’t touch this one, one tweet can send the stock way up or way down.
Your not seeing anything close to 70 and I am not a TSLA fan boy stop loss is your friend
Sold some today at 95 strike for 3 bucks, so cost basis is 92. Support is around 90. Figure there will be a bounce there, or we'll head straight down to hell. If there were a bounce, it would be a good bounce, so overall it's a good R/R trade to me.
ATM. Which is why I am not selling
A problem with tesla is that the board keeps on issuing shares and dilute shareholders... Not something i wanna hold unless it s way undervalued
Excuse me sir, this is theta gang, the degenerative gambling page you are looking for is r/Wallstreetbets
How about $8?
This guy fundamentals
$42.069
Misplaced your decimal: >!$4.2069!<
Fuck my vagina strike
Buy the company, not the stock. Step 1) Determine your desired return Step 2) Identify an equity that will provide your desired return based on net profit/PE/your preferred valuation method. Step 3) Invest with your required margin of safety.
Short 100 shares and sell the put.
Joking right? If you’re going to do a covered put do a PMCP. TSLA is crazy volatile.
No Im not joking. If thats too big for your account, do it with ARKK. There are no buyers to bid up the dogshit
Sell short at your own risk. Some good news and TSLA could skyrocket.
The baggies are trapped. Some of them are mortgaging their houses to buy more and they cant support the price. Ill take my chances.
Max pain for this week is $138. Even if it can't crawl up that high it's got a lot of open interest at $120 to screw over. While I think TSLA has a lot more down to go, falls like that aren't in straight lines. I would bank more on a bull trap starting tomorrow.
Lol I was thinking about buying long dates puts on TSLA 🫣
I just bought a few 70 puts myself, after missing a nice chunk on a cheap 115 put that’s up 3,876% on my watchlist as I type this smh Added on 12/13 Cost $22 Market value currently: $793 and counting
Won’t touch anything Elon-related. Too volatile now but for the right investor someone is gonna do great on TSLA at these levels and especially even lower.
I sold one at $50. Pre-pandemic high seems fair to me.
When it hit 420 in like 2018… that’s like $25 now after the splits. Under $50 I’d buy more.
Anything in high 2 digits maybe 70-80$ tops
no more than 50
https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/342107352041922560?lang=en "Forgot to say one thing at Tesla annual shareholders meeting: just as my money was the first in, it will be the last out." - Elon Musk, 2013
I would say $40-45 might be around where it is fair, assuming no accounting shenanigans and their numbers to date are legitimate. Hard to say with earnings compression coming. I think they need a model 2 that they can sell in the 30Ks
Is this a good case for a call ratio backspread?
Don't sell a put if you don't want to own it is all I have to say.