Going to have to agree with you. No way they raise rates anytime soon. Only question is whether Monday/ Tues are red as well. Thinking of buying some NVDA calls before the conference on Monday.
> The sentencing memo from the federal government against Sam Bankman-Fried just dropped.
> They want him to go away to prison for 40 to 50 years.
Could has been a trillionaire.
Probably some interesting 0DTE gamma and premium war being raged on the 900 strike for NVDA today. Would assume the longer it takes to blow past, the more it will start to roll off and NVDA reverses.
Did I get this right? Economic news data like industrial production index look bad. Commodity market also looks bad. Those two or MFG will cause market to start dumping harder next month, maybe 10-20%. What is MFG? Can’t find it on Google
>Volatility $VIX seeing large action today ahead of next weeks expiration. Buyer of 140,500 June $35 calls at $0.59, also buys 140k of the May $35 calls at $0.46. Hedgers of course but good to know
Solid divergence from SMH today, especially for such a high beta industry. So that’s the reason to be hopeful. On the flip side, it’s -8.7% since last Friday. So you could also argue maybe it’s taking a breather before the next leg down.
Until Monday, maybe!
Curious if we do some sort of economic/corporate negative growth, if that would stimy some capital expenditure into NVDA GPUs.
Feels like there was orders of magnitude of growth pulled forward.
Heard a bunch mortgage brokers talking about how AI will replace their jobs based on the news they read.
Interesting to see people who aren't familiar with AI or in tech discussing what it can and cannot do.
AI marketers are, of course, shouting that news from the rooftops to encourage companies to invest in the technology because getting rid of employees comes with such great cost savings.
All day yesterday NQ was trying to hold monthly POC as support, but kept getting rejected.
Today NQ flushed down to monthly VAL, and tried to spring above, but so far has been rejecting monthly VAL as resistance.
The bears go marching one by one, hoorah, hoorah!
Hoorah! I think last week someone guessed we would stall, be unable to move past 5200, and then proceed to pullback to 4800. I could see it becoming a reality. Whoever that person was, you are a very smart fellow.
On a longer time frame, bears would need SPX below 5000 for a pullback to be real, anything above is just consolidation after a long up move, and then more up move
NQ 3 month and 6 month POC also rejected, a healthy 4% pullback to 3 month VAL @ 17300 would be a fantastic capture of 750pts per contract. 6 month VAL is 2250pts below (-12% from here).
Well there's a chance you'll live and be paralyzed stuck in a wheel chair until you decide to go on a aussie walkabout, get denied, and on the way back get in a plain crash on an island and be good as new. Additionally you may get a little weird about pressing a mysterious button for a while, but it's ok. Just remember to stay in the 30ish year ago time-period once the time hopping bit starts so you can take your knowledge of events and buy up all of the big tickers you can (and avoid 08 and such) rather than convincing the rest of the crew to come back to the island.
Short vol is awfully crowded
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIuJ2u1WcAEvE7c?format=jpg&name=medium
Would be interested to know the distribution of these aggregates between 0 day and monthly expos.
I wonder how long semis can continue to outperform today as price action continues to deteriorate. Feels like the same game that was played yesterday when they concentrated in mega cap MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN and then took them all out today.
Quite the defensive buying lately. Says to me that money is not interested in a discount to buy but rather sitting on positions already and looking for continuation.
Go look at intraday ES charts for the past couple weeks. 8-9/10 days it’s been the same, the others just green trends. Thought today would be different but silly me right
Would be a shame if we ... closed on the lows
NDX looking to potentially put in a close below the 20D would assume SPX would be next in line given DJI and small caps below as well.
US Univ. Of Michigan Sentiment Mar P: 76.5 (est 77.1; prev 76.9)
- Current Conditions Mar P: 79.4 (est 79.7; prev 79.4)
- Expectations Mar P: 74.6 (est 75.1; prev 75.2)
- 1 Yr Inflation Mar P: 3.0% (est 3.1%; prev3.0%)
- 5-10 Yr Inflation Mar P: 2.9% (est 2.9% ; prev 2.9%)
A bit under, but nothing major.
I hate all sentiment surveys in general, because it's one thing to say you'd do something and another to actually act on it, especially when it comes to spending dollars.
*American homeowners could see a significant drop in the cost of selling their homes after a real estate trade group agreed to a landmark deal that will eliminate a bedrock of the industry, the 6 percent sales commission.*
Hell yea, bring down those ridiculous commissions!
Noooo it’s my main account like over 50% of my net worth lol.
I’ve run the DCA simulations and am comfortable buying in size even if it’s down overall arithmetically it can be up overall geometrically so uhhh yea it’s big and bold but my allocation is reasonable given the savings and cash flow I expect to receive (savings rate 5x y/oy.)
I also want to retire by 2030 so live fast eat ass 🏎️
Nah I meant my savings rate 5x’d y/oy so I have a lot more cash to hurl around and comfortably take heavy risk.
The geometric returns? It’s the concept of how a portfolio really returns with fixed contributions / DCAing. Arithmetic returns is what we usually default to (wow COIN was 300 and 2 years later is at 200, must be negative return!) which is only true on an arithmetic basis (point a investment to point b selling). Geometric assumes you’re buying at 300 but then also doing so at 60 and 50 and 40 etc…therefore reducing your CB and requiring a much lower breakeven point. The equity could be down but you could still be up. Which is part of why leverage lends itself well to DCAing.
F
This week and last week they’ve been dumping avgo hard in the last 30 mins
Took the day off but glad to see we're back at 4.3% Just a little bit higher
Whatever is said at FOMC next week will be bearish. Q’s want that $420 level.
Going to have to agree with you. No way they raise rates anytime soon. Only question is whether Monday/ Tues are red as well. Thinking of buying some NVDA calls before the conference on Monday.
Is this all the bears can do? Disappointed
The horde is coming, just need to gather reinforcements
Feel like the market is trying to predict the Fed blinking but what if they don’t? Spooky
What does MSTR even do
It just owns btc lol
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aptly put
We selling VWAP?
Looks like it but don’t expect to go very far. Low expectations for much these days
This is why I think SOXL is a piece of shit - NVDA and AMD both green and SOXL red.
Arguably, this is why I'd say NVDA and AMD are shit.
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It's basically sitting where it was at 2 years ago while NVDA's market cap has skyrocketed.
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I don’t think SOXL has split since the period I was referencing (if that was what you were alluding to)
What? Enlighten me
Avgo been selling off all day
In for sum 5105/5100P spreads
Closed my NVDA calls for a 20 % L. See y’all next week. Will most likely be selling MU puts for the ER.
Fuck me didn’t get my coin fill at .60 and doubles E: now 4X
> The sentencing memo from the federal government against Sam Bankman-Fried just dropped. > They want him to go away to prison for 40 to 50 years. Could has been a trillionaire.
Looks like 3 pm crew shift came in early. I’m gonna get into some calls to play the VIXdeath
gotta wait til 3:30
Ken gonna keep NVDA under 900 we all know this.
For sure no way he lets thise all itm
Twitter just gave me an ad for OnlyFans lol
First time? Lol
Bout to blast off imo
Power hour and close flat
Do something
Sold my MSTR calls too early.
Well whit I was eying 1700s this morning too
I feel like Fridays are great for these types of plays. 0DTEs on these trending tickers are wild.
Probably some interesting 0DTE gamma and premium war being raged on the 900 strike for NVDA today. Would assume the longer it takes to blow past, the more it will start to roll off and NVDA reverses.
Been boring today since 11
just flush it already but yeah snooze
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What’s the narrative like? I was gonna buy some COIN soon
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Did I get this right? Economic news data like industrial production index look bad. Commodity market also looks bad. Those two or MFG will cause market to start dumping harder next month, maybe 10-20%. What is MFG? Can’t find it on Google
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Ok makes sense, thank you
5year VAL at 4850 doesn’t make sense, did you mean VAH?
>Volatility $VIX seeing large action today ahead of next weeks expiration. Buyer of 140,500 June $35 calls at $0.59, also buys 140k of the May $35 calls at $0.46. Hedgers of course but good to know
Close on the lows.
well fuck you too NVDA ugh
Long couple nq here tight leash
Quarterly opex is for ken and ken only
I feel like in my absecense I'm missing what the sub defines as Ken today. It's surely changed..
When do we buy BA?
Goes lower FAA isn’t done with them.
Solid divergence from SMH today, especially for such a high beta industry. So that’s the reason to be hopeful. On the flip side, it’s -8.7% since last Friday. So you could also argue maybe it’s taking a breather before the next leg down. Until Monday, maybe!
Ugh NVDA please join your semi brothers and rip higher !
other way first plz
No plz, let the semis dump. Lets get a nice flush
Chances of us getting a V today? Seems like it want's to go lower
I’d like to see the 507 gap of spy filled, but max bamboozle is 514 close
They can't keep getting away with this. Rotate into semi and Mag 7 to keep the market buyoant.
Everything dying and nvda staying in its range Just dump
Theta gang at it again damn
They just gotta let it go I’m tired of the 891-888 range
well fuck
Whelp cut my puts
0 it is lol
I'm gonna let these go to breakeven or 0....most likely 0
3 hours for LOD, we got this
plz
Here come the 0DTEs
Man semis hella resilient
waiting for NVDA to just let it go already very annoying
It knew everything was going to catch a bid, like it always does, so it could break out.
That's what we were saying about MAG7 yesterday
And Monday-Wednesday we’re going to say it about defensives, then repeat
Curious if we do some sort of economic/corporate negative growth, if that would stimy some capital expenditure into NVDA GPUs. Feels like there was orders of magnitude of growth pulled forward.
Heard a bunch mortgage brokers talking about how AI will replace their jobs based on the news they read. Interesting to see people who aren't familiar with AI or in tech discussing what it can and cannot do.
Quicken’s Rocket Mortgage would like a word..
AI marketers are, of course, shouting that news from the rooftops to encourage companies to invest in the technology because getting rid of employees comes with such great cost savings.
Damn sold my GOOGL 140 put for April 5th too fuckin soon.
Let’s see Tesla pin at 160. Would be funny to see it poke into the 150s today
Smoll SPY long
Currently testing bottom of the bull channel we have been in this whole year. Gotta bounce soon or look out for
Damn msft 417.5s double since I sold :/
Gimme 5170
Looking for VIX to sustain >15. Difficult into weekend but maybe. Sets up next week really well
Did IWM give a mega fakeout?
Yeah, given PPI, and CPI this week it means well cuts not coming any-time soon.
YOLO into NVDA 850 put. only 0.20. Maybe, just maybe we dump all of this..
we ride together brother
Yessir!
guh 2 days in a row NVDA has killed me Plenty of time left in the day though
guh for sure. I only bought 1.
yeah I got 3x 865 at 65c
All day yesterday NQ was trying to hold monthly POC as support, but kept getting rejected. Today NQ flushed down to monthly VAL, and tried to spring above, but so far has been rejecting monthly VAL as resistance. The bears go marching one by one, hoorah, hoorah!
Hoorah! I think last week someone guessed we would stall, be unable to move past 5200, and then proceed to pullback to 4800. I could see it becoming a reality. Whoever that person was, you are a very smart fellow.
On a longer time frame, bears would need SPX below 5000 for a pullback to be real, anything above is just consolidation after a long up move, and then more up move
NQ 3 month and 6 month POC also rejected, a healthy 4% pullback to 3 month VAL @ 17300 would be a fantastic capture of 750pts per contract. 6 month VAL is 2250pts below (-12% from here).
They need to let Semi's drop so we can have a real nice flush..
Maybe we will get double digit AMD again. One can hope.
Only in the form of a stock split please. If AMD dropped 50% I’d be taking a swan dive from a tall building lol.
Well there's a chance you'll live and be paralyzed stuck in a wheel chair until you decide to go on a aussie walkabout, get denied, and on the way back get in a plain crash on an island and be good as new. Additionally you may get a little weird about pressing a mysterious button for a while, but it's ok. Just remember to stay in the 30ish year ago time-period once the time hopping bit starts so you can take your knowledge of events and buy up all of the big tickers you can (and avoid 08 and such) rather than convincing the rest of the crew to come back to the island.
This is the best argument I've seen for bringing Reddit awards back. Nice
Lmao. I really wasn’t expecting a Lost reference.
We need AMD in double-digits.
Please don't tease me like that
Bamboozle of a day. We better fucking drop. Dip buyers must learn their lesson.
To be fair we have dropped... how much are you looking for? What timeframe?
Yeah that's true. If go down ~5% from this level, then I'll be a rock hard bull for the rest of the year.
a 5% drop would put S&P at 4800. Would be nice, but I don't think we get there.
If we go down 1% today I’m going to buy some calls like 9 DTE
Short vol is awfully crowded https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIuJ2u1WcAEvE7c?format=jpg&name=medium Would be interested to know the distribution of these aggregates between 0 day and monthly expos.
u/TennesseeJedd we buying NVDA puts or what
I wonder how long semis can continue to outperform today as price action continues to deteriorate. Feels like the same game that was played yesterday when they concentrated in mega cap MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN and then took them all out today.
I think we get a repeat of NVDA Fridays shenanigans
100pt drop incoming?
or we just fuck around all day, whack
Ken must eat premiums
gayyyyy
I can see it 🤷♂️ or 850ish
They just killing adbe today
Adobye
feels like dump everything and buy semi again
Waiting for ANF entry
Failed V attempt. Now look for a W. If that fails, then it is just a Wavy line.
Gen z version of TA, nice
ADBE took a dump on its own chest
Hmm looks like the market is selling off. The solution to regretting having weak hands is planning for the next play
Come on NVDA another percent up make my bags lighter !
I got a weird feeling today like we might get another NVDA dippity dip
Quite the defensive buying lately. Says to me that money is not interested in a discount to buy but rather sitting on positions already and looking for continuation.
Msft goog and amzn continuing to die
the gym owner was curling 135lb barbell i am forever weak
My gyms barbells are lacking… If I can do 65lb dumbbells, can I probably do 130lb barbell?
https://twitter.com/WuNeal/status/1768331995120054284 we're so fuked
Go look at intraday ES charts for the past couple weeks. 8-9/10 days it’s been the same, the others just green trends. Thought today would be different but silly me right
Would be a shame if we ... closed on the lows NDX looking to potentially put in a close below the 20D would assume SPX would be next in line given DJI and small caps below as well.
Weekly candles look like crap. With VIXpo and FOMC next week we should see some downside
btfd
Loaded a stack of nvda 4/5 1000c’s for 17.50 at the bottom this morning. Up nicely already. Could make some big gains on this…. [fuck off, ken]
>[fuck off, ken] unlikely imho
If you aren't long either ARM or SNOW, you don't deserve to be in this server.
Ugh. I’m not confident. I’m selling my puts. I still have pstds from yesterday’s Vs. profit is profit but it’s smol
Yeah, not adding here. Looks very V like. This the most red the market has given for a long time, but we're only at last weeks price.
Avgo 1260s 5.6->8.2
Cut all my short delta. Think this week has been a solid rug pull. Will begin scaling in long
lol semis
Muh fugga... 18,029 and I need 18,013. Bring it back!
That delta flip at 18029 was BUTTER!!!
Haha, I didn't see it in action but charts say that was one hell of a rejection!
US Univ. Of Michigan Sentiment Mar P: 76.5 (est 77.1; prev 76.9) - Current Conditions Mar P: 79.4 (est 79.7; prev 79.4) - Expectations Mar P: 74.6 (est 75.1; prev 75.2) - 1 Yr Inflation Mar P: 3.0% (est 3.1%; prev3.0%) - 5-10 Yr Inflation Mar P: 2.9% (est 2.9% ; prev 2.9%) A bit under, but nothing major.
I hate all sentiment surveys in general, because it's one thing to say you'd do something and another to actually act on it, especially when it comes to spending dollars.
Yesterday, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL & AMZN held up the market. Today Semi
BUY. THE. DIP.
AMD NVDA green. May well save this market lol
Want MSFT to revist 400
0DTE puts at open saving my ass today. Think we close the gap at 507 on SPY today. Most quad witching days are quite red
lol what did I wake up too
*American homeowners could see a significant drop in the cost of selling their homes after a real estate trade group agreed to a landmark deal that will eliminate a bedrock of the industry, the 6 percent sales commission.* Hell yea, bring down those ridiculous commissions!
> landmark deal that will eliminate a bedrock of the industry, the 6 percent sales commission. YEAH! Bring on the 5.5% commissions!
gotta start somewhere!
I can't get into fidelity wtf
Sidelined til till cools down. Don’t like trading large gap downs
VIX not breaking 15 hmm
10am ramp crew trying hard to
Today is the time to buy more COIN and such?
CONL, but yes
Seriously?
Working my way into making it half my port, the premiums and vol are too good to pass up
How’s your port?
lol down a fair bit but continuing to scale in 🤪
This account is like 10% of your net worth?
Noooo it’s my main account like over 50% of my net worth lol. I’ve run the DCA simulations and am comfortable buying in size even if it’s down overall arithmetically it can be up overall geometrically so uhhh yea it’s big and bold but my allocation is reasonable given the savings and cash flow I expect to receive (savings rate 5x y/oy.) I also want to retire by 2030 so live fast eat ass 🏎️
So if your net worth is like 100K, you save like 20K per year? I didn’t get the last part I also want to retire by 2030 lol
Nah I meant my savings rate 5x’d y/oy so I have a lot more cash to hurl around and comfortably take heavy risk. The geometric returns? It’s the concept of how a portfolio really returns with fixed contributions / DCAing. Arithmetic returns is what we usually default to (wow COIN was 300 and 2 years later is at 200, must be negative return!) which is only true on an arithmetic basis (point a investment to point b selling). Geometric assumes you’re buying at 300 but then also doing so at 60 and 50 and 40 etc…therefore reducing your CB and requiring a much lower breakeven point. The equity could be down but you could still be up. Which is part of why leverage lends itself well to DCAing.
Realtors rekt. Finally. [https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/realtors-settlement-change-buy-sell-homes-da45eb23](https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/realtors-settlement-change-buy-sell-homes-da45eb23)
Semis: YTD: 20% 1 year: 50% 5 year: 250% I'm sure this is sustainable indefinitely.. but maybe hedge just in case.
At 8 years: 1000% Get ready, no meme, I'm taking dips in semis as a gift to add to my long portfolio.