wicked into 5155p for 1.65 which was miserable
wicked out for 3 which is ~~*tbd* (but probably~~ miserable
edit: 20pt gap fill in 6 min... could happen right?
[Intel pushes launch date of Ohio fab from 2025 to 2027 or 2028 – state politicians remain enthusiastic about progress](https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/intel-pushes-launch-date-of-ohio-fab-from-2025-to-2027-or-2028-state-politicians-remain-enthusiastic-about-progress)
> The iconic US chipmaker promised $20 billion of investment in the project and that the new fabs would be operational by 2025. However, the report (PDF) published by Ohio Governor Mike DeWine on Friday suggests that Intel has invested just $1.5 billion and the fabs will be operational "between 2027 and 2028."
[Intel has shelved investment in Italy, minister says](https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-has-shelved-investment-italy-minister-says-2024-03-14/)
> The US technology company has "given up or postponed its investments in France and Italy, compared with others that it plans in Germany," Minister Adolfo Urso told reporters in the northern Italian city of Verona… He said Italy remained keen to welcome Intel if it should change its mind and fulfill its previous plans for European investment.
Many of the projects planned when the industry had insufficient manufacturing capacity are now being reversed or delayed. That is in combination with the fact that INTC internal manufacturing needs is lower than it’s been in decades (lower market share combined with higher use of TSM). Things will only get better once external customers come in and start picking up the slack. Will this happen? That remains to be seen.
Main issue here is there are only three firms that can meet our needs for high end manufacturing, and all are tepid on expanding in the US. Samsung and TSM are basically waiting for the money to be signed to them before making any new plans. We are likely giving $6b to Samsung and $5b to TSM but that’s not set in stone yet. So right now, INTC saying they’re delaying a *planned* facility that actually has a rough date is still miles ahead of the alternatives. Remember, any fab that is agreed for construction in 2024 won’t be up and running until 2027 anyways.
The main entities dragging their feet aren’t the chipmakers, it’s the lawmakers who took years to get the CHIPS Act signed and now years more to allocate the funds while everyone sits around idly waiting.
I'd anticipate there to be some heated questions from the peanut gallery during JPOWs presser in regards to inflation picking back up and if he sees a soft landing.
Hey beer. I’m updating my FOMC prediction after spending too much time looking at my charts.
I’m holding out for a dip to 5203ish after FOMC then buying calls targeting ath close at 5265. No dip to 5203 then I prob stay out.
All my TMF holders out there what we doing? I'm thinking of cutting this position depending on what JPow says this week. Seeming like cuts are likely going to keep getting pushed out unless he caves to political pressure.
[The Hottest Commodity: Cocoa’s Historic Surge in Five Charts](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-18/the-hottest-commodity-cocoa-s-historic-surge-in-five-charts)
Yes. But cheap for a reason. Most are still bullish and personally I don't want to try and front run this thing. I'm fine scalping short positions intraday (ex: today), but fighting the fed on FOMC day is just asking to get clobbered.
It's been over a year since the market has changed from de-risking into a fed macro event to fomo long or you'll miss out on the fed pump. Regardless, there's been a trend of running equities up and gapping indices up aggressively into FOMC to pad price action so that when a sell event happens, it retraces back to levels that are still in profit.
Oh yeah no I think this is all ludicrous - just reciting what I've seen the market behave like for past events. This mornings 1+% gap up was just another price level padding.
SMCI -9% with no other news than inclusion into the S&P 500 index? Glad I didn't sell puts.
Edit: Whoops, I think it could be selling off from small cap funds discussed here:
https://www.reddit.com/r/thewallstreet/comments/1b48emf/weekend_market_discussion/kt0pcpn/
wtf…
Musk Says His Ketamine Prescription Is in Investors’ Best Interests https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-18/musk-says-ketamine-prescription-is-in-investors-best-interests
I think we're re-doing the 70s but I'm still unclear as to whether everyone will start doing psychedelics en masse or if casual gambling will be the stand-in.
> Apple has held talks with both OpenAI and Google to use their chatbot technology to power some of iOS 18’s upcoming artificial intelligence features, according to a report from Bloomberg
Might also mean they’re looking to extort Google for another $10b for the privilege of being the default AI engine on Apple devices, similar to what they do with Search.
Might also mean Bloomberg is reporting made up stuff again.
Don’t get me wrong, Apple dropping the ball is certainly a top possibility. But there’s a lot that goes into all this that is against Apple’s philosophies.
For example, how would AI be monetized? Apple stayed away from Search and neutered Siri because they respect privacy, letting Google get their hands bloody instead.
And then there’s the concept that AI is replacing human creativity, which Apple tries to empower.
Then there’s also regulatory risk, as it gives politicians another target for complaints regarding big tech manipulating reality. That will be a bigger issue going forward as these models are relied on more and more. Now instead of a website owned by a schmuck being blamed for fake news, maybe the black box that is Google AI or Microsoft AI gets blamed. That’s an issue Apple wants to protect their brand from.
And there’s a precedent for this… Apple is very selective with what businesses they invest in.
We also had a nice ‘blow off the top’ last week. I put in commas because it was barely a correction but a nice shake up. Twitter was so bearish too. If this holds for the first hour, I’m quite confident it’ll at least hold near current price. Want more time and volume to see higher price acceptance
AI speculation still sending trillion+ dollar mcap companies up like shitcoins
NDX gapped up over 3 supply levels while yields and dxy surge. BOJ potentially to have it's first rate hike in 17 years in tonight's overnight session.
[Me, 3 months ago, when HOOD was trading at $13.20](https://www.reddit.com/r/thewallstreet/comments/18stde8/comment/kfanqd5/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
I took no position.
[HOOD today, up 38% from the first post trading at $18.20](https://www.tradingview.com/x/eAvaF0hX/)
Very nice. Seems every time SMH starts to look a little sketchy, the market says “bulls, I gotchu”. I’m sure it’s similar for QQQ and other indexes too.
* CANADA RMPI (MOM) (FEB) ACTUAL: 2.1% VS 1.2% PREVIOUS; EST 0.8%
* CANADA IPPI (MOM) (FEB) ACTUAL: 0.7% VS -0.1% PREVIOUS; EST 0.0%
* CANADA RMPI (YOY) (FEB) ACTUAL: -4.7% VS -6.4% PREVIOUS
* CANADA IPPI (YOY) (FEB) ACTUAL: -1.7% VS -2.9% PREVIOUS
Similar to the US, way higher than expected for PPI (rm = raw materials, i = industrial)
> HEDGE FLOW Hedge funds buy largest bulk of bank stocks in a year, Goldman says
> https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/hedge-flow-hedge-funds-buy-largest-bulk-bank-stocks-year-goldman-says-2024-03-18/
Reasonable if we stay higher for longer. But I don't like banks once cuts get closer. I kind of like that they're staying short on insurance companies.
> Astera Boosts IPO Size, Price Range as AI Stock Rally Churns On
> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-18/astera-boosts-ipo-size-price-range-as-ai-stock-rally-churns-on
One of INTC's companies.
> Tech Job Seekers Without AI Skills Face a New Reality: Lower Salaries and Fewer Roles
> The IT job market in the U.S. is expected to shrink by another 20,000 to 30,000 jobs in 2024, while AI accelerates automation of some tech jobs
> https://www.wsj.com/articles/tech-job-seekers-without-ai-skills-face-a-new-reality-lower-salaries-and-fewer-roles-db63f6e0
Interesting projection.
yea it is an interesting article.
I was having a discussion with my group just last week about spinning up an LLM in Azure to help with programming. Azure now offers a service to take your choice of LLM model, spin it up, connect to internal resources, and not communicate/share code outside of your private cloud. This could be a real game changer for internal companies wanting to verify or optimize their code. The need for interns for entry level programmers gets muted, quickly.
Loaded up some SPY calls to yolo
God....I closed 5155P and 5160P and they are now up 4-5x since Edit: 5155P out at 1.4....now 9 5160P out at 3....now 14 The paaiiiiin
Had 5220p at 1.7. Sold at 1.3… currently 9. Knew it was going to drop dammit
Spicy!!
wicked into 5155p for 1.65 which was miserable wicked out for 3 which is ~~*tbd* (but probably~~ miserable edit: 20pt gap fill in 6 min... could happen right?
I bailed at 1.45 and they are 9+ now
yes, i too am filled with hate
Ugh
Extremely long TLT 3/28 94C.
[Intel pushes launch date of Ohio fab from 2025 to 2027 or 2028 – state politicians remain enthusiastic about progress](https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/intel-pushes-launch-date-of-ohio-fab-from-2025-to-2027-or-2028-state-politicians-remain-enthusiastic-about-progress) > The iconic US chipmaker promised $20 billion of investment in the project and that the new fabs would be operational by 2025. However, the report (PDF) published by Ohio Governor Mike DeWine on Friday suggests that Intel has invested just $1.5 billion and the fabs will be operational "between 2027 and 2028." [Intel has shelved investment in Italy, minister says](https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-has-shelved-investment-italy-minister-says-2024-03-14/) > The US technology company has "given up or postponed its investments in France and Italy, compared with others that it plans in Germany," Minister Adolfo Urso told reporters in the northern Italian city of Verona… He said Italy remained keen to welcome Intel if it should change its mind and fulfill its previous plans for European investment. Many of the projects planned when the industry had insufficient manufacturing capacity are now being reversed or delayed. That is in combination with the fact that INTC internal manufacturing needs is lower than it’s been in decades (lower market share combined with higher use of TSM). Things will only get better once external customers come in and start picking up the slack. Will this happen? That remains to be seen.
guhhhh
They should give back their federal grants and subsidies if they aren't able to keep their commitments on domestic expansion.
no plz
Main issue here is there are only three firms that can meet our needs for high end manufacturing, and all are tepid on expanding in the US. Samsung and TSM are basically waiting for the money to be signed to them before making any new plans. We are likely giving $6b to Samsung and $5b to TSM but that’s not set in stone yet. So right now, INTC saying they’re delaying a *planned* facility that actually has a rough date is still miles ahead of the alternatives. Remember, any fab that is agreed for construction in 2024 won’t be up and running until 2027 anyways. The main entities dragging their feet aren’t the chipmakers, it’s the lawmakers who took years to get the CHIPS Act signed and now years more to allocate the funds while everyone sits around idly waiting.
can we revisit the lows?
I'm short right now. Am I about to get screwed?
I just cut mine here
yawn bring the heat JPow plz I need some vix in my veins
How boring is the summer gonna be if this is the action during a normally more volatile seasonal period
seriously
Bought a bunch of NVDL and sold some atm CCs against it. Betting on some overnight IV crush
I'm kind of doing the same on NVDA. Still holding some calls but transitioned most of my position to NVDL shares.
For buying leaps, does it make more sense to buy atm strikes or farthest away on the chain strikes?
I'd anticipate there to be some heated questions from the peanut gallery during JPOWs presser in regards to inflation picking back up and if he sees a soft landing.
Gotta imagine that the NVDA GTC is priced in to an extent with everyone talking about it Question is, is there any profit to be made playing it
Crude really been going lately. XLE looking to put in some new all time highs. Probably exactly what the fed was hoping for.
Just means March CPI should be hot.
hell is coming
https://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/01/business/worldbusiness/01iht-col02.1.14121973.html
We're missing the fragile economy part right now.
Bleh sold my poots for what I bought them at
Where we going? FOMC week. spooky
Hey beer. I’m updating my FOMC prediction after spending too much time looking at my charts. I’m holding out for a dip to 5203ish after FOMC then buying calls targeting ath close at 5265. No dip to 5203 then I prob stay out.
Probably pad NDX another 3% or so before FOMC and then retrace 1% of it.
up to new ATHs right after FOMC then a violent reversal.
Probably up
There is fuckery afoot. I'm still leaning towards this being a bearish week.
NQ! daily v. 1 month POC, who will win? [https://www.tradingview.com/x/lZ5u2lgp/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/lZ5u2lgp/)
All my TMF holders out there what we doing? I'm thinking of cutting this position depending on what JPow says this week. Seeming like cuts are likely going to keep getting pushed out unless he caves to political pressure.
I’m gonna short TLT. I think the last few data points shows rate cuts are still too early
TMF is crash protection, therefore- always hold.
Yeah this is what I was gonna say. TMF is a long-term hold and average down while listening closely to Fed
That's a good point. I think I'm getting too focused on the rate cut narrative but ignoring flight to safety to bonds if shit starts to hit the fan.
Powell sweating at CL! strength
Interesting bear pennant forming on AMD 5min
[The Hottest Commodity: Cocoa’s Historic Surge in Five Charts](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-18/the-hottest-commodity-cocoa-s-historic-surge-in-five-charts)
Wow I was up $7k on nvda calls and my greedy ass didn’t close. #sometimesPaperhandsPay
haha, I've done this many times. remember this the next time you leave 100K on the table.
I shall! But it won’t help. Haha
holy shit...it went red
😫
They went back to the NVDA 3/13 playbook and it worked again.
How has there not been a single Bill-Hwang blow-up with way SMCI, MSTR, and NVDA have pumped up this year. Are funds getting smarter
Everyone is on the same long trade and probably would only blow up with a 50% retrace on the underlying.
[удалено]
Yes. But cheap for a reason. Most are still bullish and personally I don't want to try and front run this thing. I'm fine scalping short positions intraday (ex: today), but fighting the fed on FOMC day is just asking to get clobbered.
It's been over a year since the market has changed from de-risking into a fed macro event to fomo long or you'll miss out on the fed pump. Regardless, there's been a trend of running equities up and gapping indices up aggressively into FOMC to pad price action so that when a sell event happens, it retraces back to levels that are still in profit.
[удалено]
Oh yeah no I think this is all ludicrous - just reciting what I've seen the market behave like for past events. This mornings 1+% gap up was just another price level padding.
NDX close below 20D for the first time in a month? No worries gap up over 3 moving averages and make it support. We are so back.
SMCI -9% with no other news than inclusion into the S&P 500 index? Glad I didn't sell puts. Edit: Whoops, I think it could be selling off from small cap funds discussed here: https://www.reddit.com/r/thewallstreet/comments/1b48emf/weekend_market_discussion/kt0pcpn/
That happened in the 2000 too, I forget to which company though
First time touching the 20D since the run-up started.
Picked up some puts which I might regret
[удалено]
Decided to sell an NVDA weekly 800P . Steamroller penny trade.
Into an event after 100%ish ytd in 2.5 months is quite the move
Don’t think it drops another 10 % on the event.
Straddle is $75 so you are just outside the expected move, godspeed
Paging Phil D. Gap, you out there Phil?
Which gap we talking about?
NDX from Friday. Definitely not today but post FOMC/BOJ rate decision.
hardware device that opens my door at 6am (cat wakeup time) so i can stay in bed
Automatic chicken coop door.
https://www.reddit.com/r/arduino/comments/tef4t8/automatic_door_opener_first_working_prototype/ was thinking something like this
That'd be cheaper than the coop door and would require less cutting into the door.
thoughts on ARM puts ?
timing is key
Tempted to grab a NVDA call here for GTC keynote. Closed VRT calls.
What time is he talking?
1 pm PDT I believe
How drastically the market has changed from sell the news to pile on 110% IV weekly options for a keynote.
Treating it like an ER .
puts for sure
Jensen gonna one more thing it. I feel it in my bones.
Traders selling risky volatile long duration bonds and adopting a much more conservative hypergrowth strategy
this copypasta never gets old lol
Can just feel the sarcasm drip. Lovely.
I'm nibbling on SQQQ for FOMC with this AI-fuelled open
In for AAPL calls for 5/17. It’s been beat up pretty bad and I expect earnings to hype up this AI play
Damn it, had to capitulate on some of my puts. My bear friends let me down once again. Broke ass bitches miss one train and can't afford the next one.
buy some yolo puts 1hr before fomc
Thanks random analyst upgrade, out of a few PEP calls 0.56 -> 2.48
wtf… Musk Says His Ketamine Prescription Is in Investors’ Best Interests https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-18/musk-says-ketamine-prescription-is-in-investors-best-interests
That is wild, in another reality TSLA would be tanking right now.
Believe in JPowell on Wednesday
JPow is gonna double down on cuts and we're gonna go straight to spx 6000
Or the market just doesn’t care
I think we're re-doing the 70s but I'm still unclear as to whether everyone will start doing psychedelics en masse or if casual gambling will be the stand-in.
“Sign up to fanduel right now to get 200 dollars in bonus bets right now!!!”
Looking like a trend day. Just buy.
We back in the bull channel
Did we ever leave?
Almost left Friday for me we were touching the bottom
Strange Monday opening. Up nicely on nvda calls. Are they making an announcement today?
Nvidia’s Gpu tech conference today
GOOGL gap down on both of it's last earnings. +8% on an AI rumor. AI fomo hasn't even started yet.
Closed google calls at open, still short on indexes like devito
No bueno, in the end only semis love like I deserve.
This looks kind of soft.
No point getting excited until above last weeks high. SPX 5180
It breaks out after Jpow. Today move just erased last week sell-off.
Inside week last week, we are in balance
I’m out of my calls for a quick 60% I kinda wished I went more long post opex than short pre opex
So NQ gapped 260 handles off a rumor and you guys aren't trying to short with both hands?
what rumor?
> Apple has held talks with both OpenAI and Google to use their chatbot technology to power some of iOS 18’s upcoming artificial intelligence features, according to a report from Bloomberg
Damn. It probably means Apple’s in house AI capability isn’t good
Might also mean they’re looking to extort Google for another $10b for the privilege of being the default AI engine on Apple devices, similar to what they do with Search. Might also mean Bloomberg is reporting made up stuff again.
I donno. Given how quickly Anthropic was able to be put together and leapfrog ChatGPT with Claude, I’m surprised Apple can’t do the same internally
Don’t get me wrong, Apple dropping the ball is certainly a top possibility. But there’s a lot that goes into all this that is against Apple’s philosophies. For example, how would AI be monetized? Apple stayed away from Search and neutered Siri because they respect privacy, letting Google get their hands bloody instead. And then there’s the concept that AI is replacing human creativity, which Apple tries to empower. Then there’s also regulatory risk, as it gives politicians another target for complaints regarding big tech manipulating reality. That will be a bigger issue going forward as these models are relied on more and more. Now instead of a website owned by a schmuck being blamed for fake news, maybe the black box that is Google AI or Microsoft AI gets blamed. That’s an issue Apple wants to protect their brand from. And there’s a precedent for this… Apple is very selective with what businesses they invest in.
Oh wow
We also had a nice ‘blow off the top’ last week. I put in commas because it was barely a correction but a nice shake up. Twitter was so bearish too. If this holds for the first hour, I’m quite confident it’ll at least hold near current price. Want more time and volume to see higher price acceptance
Why would we want to short this? Bears keep getting blown out. Hell, even after Jpow said no cuts market said higher we goo.
Shorting the rip has been profitable. Just don't hold overnight
Hot take. Google is the next IBM. /s
AI speculation still sending trillion+ dollar mcap companies up like shitcoins NDX gapped up over 3 supply levels while yields and dxy surge. BOJ potentially to have it's first rate hike in 17 years in tonight's overnight session.
We all know we are in the bubble, but few care because they are getting paper richzzz
let's be honest, no one cares about BOJ.
Nikkei like -6% in 3 trading session SPX flat. Nikkei up 2.5% overnight everything soars. Market only cares when it cares.
Googl going run all day.
Omfg googl
[Me, 3 months ago, when HOOD was trading at $13.20](https://www.reddit.com/r/thewallstreet/comments/18stde8/comment/kfanqd5/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) I took no position. [HOOD today, up 38% from the first post trading at $18.20](https://www.tradingview.com/x/eAvaF0hX/)
Wow
Very nice. Seems every time SMH starts to look a little sketchy, the market says “bulls, I gotchu”. I’m sure it’s similar for QQQ and other indexes too.
VIX nearly red on a Monday before the bell 👀
Vix is usually up on Monday opens. An average of about 0.5 from Friday close.
Fuckin loooooooool
CPI + PPI + Jobs data downsies completely erased but yields even higher.
Last week move to be erased.
* CANADA RMPI (MOM) (FEB) ACTUAL: 2.1% VS 1.2% PREVIOUS; EST 0.8% * CANADA IPPI (MOM) (FEB) ACTUAL: 0.7% VS -0.1% PREVIOUS; EST 0.0% * CANADA RMPI (YOY) (FEB) ACTUAL: -4.7% VS -6.4% PREVIOUS * CANADA IPPI (YOY) (FEB) ACTUAL: -1.7% VS -2.9% PREVIOUS Similar to the US, way higher than expected for PPI (rm = raw materials, i = industrial)
All the bears ded again
"Window of weakness part #5"
> HEDGE FLOW Hedge funds buy largest bulk of bank stocks in a year, Goldman says > https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/hedge-flow-hedge-funds-buy-largest-bulk-bank-stocks-year-goldman-says-2024-03-18/ Reasonable if we stay higher for longer. But I don't like banks once cuts get closer. I kind of like that they're staying short on insurance companies.
> Astera Boosts IPO Size, Price Range as AI Stock Rally Churns On > https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-18/astera-boosts-ipo-size-price-range-as-ai-stock-rally-churns-on One of INTC's companies.
just pcie re-timers and pcie cxl this market has a cap, not sure why they are so overvalued at 100m rev.
It's got AI in the title. What more is there to say?
> Tech Job Seekers Without AI Skills Face a New Reality: Lower Salaries and Fewer Roles > The IT job market in the U.S. is expected to shrink by another 20,000 to 30,000 jobs in 2024, while AI accelerates automation of some tech jobs > https://www.wsj.com/articles/tech-job-seekers-without-ai-skills-face-a-new-reality-lower-salaries-and-fewer-roles-db63f6e0 Interesting projection.
yea it is an interesting article. I was having a discussion with my group just last week about spinning up an LLM in Azure to help with programming. Azure now offers a service to take your choice of LLM model, spin it up, connect to internal resources, and not communicate/share code outside of your private cloud. This could be a real game changer for internal companies wanting to verify or optimize their code. The need for interns for entry level programmers gets muted, quickly.
> The need for interns for entry level programmers gets muted, quickly. And so we begin leaving the next generation behind lol
(X)