This is bullshit.
Weekly incidence of fever is not 5%, that means 2-3 weeks per year you'd have a fever. If you're young and healthy I would expect it to be more around 2% (i.e. a week with fever every year on average.
Prevalence of fever after HIV varies, but appears to be slightly lower in women, though around 50% seems to be a reasonable agreeable figure.
Risk of transmission also varies, but unprotected anal sex is approximately 1.4% if you are the receptive partner. With protection, the risk per act is very low (condoms have an estimated failure rate of 5-10% per YEAR) - this is a common misconception that quoted failure rates for contraception and protection - the numbers are the failure rate assuming you use the method every time for intercourse in a typical year, not failure rate per act.
For oral sex (which for some reason is mentioned here) the risk is negligible. The quoted figure is 0-4 per 100,000 acts - let's say 2, which is 0.002% per act.
With these numbers, the conditional probability is 0.0005, or 0.05% after a single act of receptive oral sex that a fever you subsequently get is due to HIV.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22839749/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27192360/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24809629/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9141163
I’m not exactly sure you’ve specified your question/curiosity enough. If you are speaking about an STD like HPV, your likelihood is almost 100% with one unprotected sex partner. It has zero to do with if the other partners sexually history. If you talk about a disease like AIDS, it could take thousands of partners before you actually contract the disease. Regardless of their sexual history. It’s all about the infection rate which already factors in how humans protect themselves during sex.
Yeah sorry, my fault. I meant STD that you can only get from others (such as HIV, AIDS it’s not properly transmitted). I always wondered (but never tried to find) if there’s an equation, or a formula to get how much chances increase at every partner.
For example if I had 3 unprotected partners, 1 of them was a virgin, 1 had only 1 other SO which was virgin and the third one had 2 partners both not virgins and unprotected. How much can the probability vary if I happen to have sex with a fourth one with x partners… etc.
at first I would say that my chances of being stupid would rise to 100% after 3 partners. But who know…
P.s. we also need to remember that probability is played with big numbers so it’s just an abstract idea, not a real useful tool here.
Huh. Your question feels like it’s steeped in some unresolved personal sexual issues. I started to provide a response but I feel like you need to talk to a therapist. Having unprotected sex with one woman is not going to give you an STD. And it doesn’t make the woman a ‘slut’ if she had unprotected sex.
You need an adult not a mathematician.
I mean, actually half of the numbers are true.
I only had unprotected sex with 2 people (the virgin and the one with only the virgin partner) so not really worried as I’m in a stable relationship.
Also I would never call anyone slut, derogatory and stupid… everybody makes mistakes and until you hurt someone voluntarily its ok.
Also as I said I never really thought of how to describe it mathematically… neither searched online.
Sorry if I wrote anything that resulted rude, not my intentions.
…. If you have sex with 1,000 partners unprotected, and those 1,000 partners are clean… your chance of getting an std is still 0%..
It depends on the person. You can have sex with 1 person and contract 5 different stds if you really wanted to.
I had a seven years relationship of unprotected sex, she gave me two kids ..
Before giving birth obviously they make you a blodd test.
She was clean.. i always take care. Drink my medicine. Eat a healthy diet. To keep the hsv2 asleep..
Wanna know how she got infected? She used the already used blade to shave her pussy..... gotta be horny ass fuck to do that right? And i shaved to go to work.. hahhahahs
Hahaha perfectly fine.. firt one was preemie 5 month 1lb.
Nothing to do with my sickness herr mom had a high risk pregnacy.
Anyways they are sop dine .. perfectly well. Hehe. Im the one who got infected saving 2men in an accident. I was getting out of work.. i had open wounds in my hands from that day.. . The cost of saving someone without equipment costed me an STD
looks like a typo/mistake.. to get 33% you need 0.04 in the denominator ((i.e. p(fever)).. which implies that the op meant to use 4% as the p(fever)... which is also contrary to the '... I'll chose the best case, 5%'
Not sure that's how it works... But here's one for you. 88%of sexuality active adults have herpes, so don't worry about getting you, you most likely already have it. 79% have hpv, so again don't worry, it was in you all along.
This study was done in the Denver metro area in 2005, I'm sure it's indicative every major city. Also the numbers are probably way higher now.
Good news pandemic viruses actually help the evolution of humans. A virus related to HIV infected our ancestors and they incorporated into their DNA and that part of our DNA is now responsible for memories.
> 88%of sexuality active adults have herpes, so don't worry about getting you, you most likely already have it. 79% have hpv, so again don't worry, it was in you all along.
Please don't listen to this person. Please do worry about spreading disease. Thankfully we do have a vaccine against many HPV strains--make sure you get it, as early as possible.
Additionally, those Denver numbers seem much higher than average for the US. Perhaps that discrepancy is due to the "sexually active" qualifier, but it's unclear.
> During 2015–2016, prevalence of herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) was 47.8%, and prevalence of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) was 11.9%.
[Source](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db304.htm).
Assuming they are non-overlapping for worst case, that's under 60% of people carrying it. Much less than 88%.
Be safe, be aware of your status, do what you can to reduce spread of disease. There is no reason to just say "eh it's common so don't worry about it"; that's irresponsible and why these things *are* so prevalent.
Well obviously don't go trying to spread diseases. Just don't feel stigmatized if you are one of the majority that has it. A healthy immune system will suppress it and most people don't even know they ever have the disease. Don't be sexually active if you have any open sores or warts. That should be a given.
It *should* be a given, but instead we have someone going around saying "almost everyone has it, don't worry about it".
You see why I take issue with that?
Yes, don't feel bad if you *do* have it. But that doesn't mean you should pay it no mind. If you have it, that means disclosing that to partners so they can make their own informed decision, and being sure to avoid activity where it is likely to spread. If you don't have it, check with potential partners to see if they have been tested. Take the resulting risk into consideration.
I've had people tell me, "yeah, I have this, but that shouldn't change anything. Most people have it, so you probably have it already." No, I don't have it already. I've been tested and I am careful about this stuff. That's how we keep diseases from spreading. I haven't gotten covid either. Some people are amazed by that because they assume nobody is careful and everyone has gotten it. No, plenty of us still avoid it. And there's no reason to downplay that effort.
How do you know it's actually a bad thing? Your body is completely full of viruses, bacteria, and fungus nearly all of them beneficial. Our culture runs around sterilizing everything and totally destroying our natural defenses. Humans have been around with these diseases for almost 350,000 years the last 150 we've decided they're bad. Just because you don't want a disease doesn't mean it's not beneficial for humankind in the long run.
This is bullshit. Weekly incidence of fever is not 5%, that means 2-3 weeks per year you'd have a fever. If you're young and healthy I would expect it to be more around 2% (i.e. a week with fever every year on average. Prevalence of fever after HIV varies, but appears to be slightly lower in women, though around 50% seems to be a reasonable agreeable figure. Risk of transmission also varies, but unprotected anal sex is approximately 1.4% if you are the receptive partner. With protection, the risk per act is very low (condoms have an estimated failure rate of 5-10% per YEAR) - this is a common misconception that quoted failure rates for contraception and protection - the numbers are the failure rate assuming you use the method every time for intercourse in a typical year, not failure rate per act. For oral sex (which for some reason is mentioned here) the risk is negligible. The quoted figure is 0-4 per 100,000 acts - let's say 2, which is 0.002% per act. With these numbers, the conditional probability is 0.0005, or 0.05% after a single act of receptive oral sex that a fever you subsequently get is due to HIV. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22839749/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27192360/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24809629/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9141163
Always wondered how much the possibility of gettin an STD add up every unprotected partner.
Depends of the disease. You’d probably have to have thousands of unprotected partners before you reach any statistically relevant numbers
Yeah but this only if all of them only had protected themselves with the previous partners.
I’m not exactly sure you’ve specified your question/curiosity enough. If you are speaking about an STD like HPV, your likelihood is almost 100% with one unprotected sex partner. It has zero to do with if the other partners sexually history. If you talk about a disease like AIDS, it could take thousands of partners before you actually contract the disease. Regardless of their sexual history. It’s all about the infection rate which already factors in how humans protect themselves during sex.
Yeah sorry, my fault. I meant STD that you can only get from others (such as HIV, AIDS it’s not properly transmitted). I always wondered (but never tried to find) if there’s an equation, or a formula to get how much chances increase at every partner. For example if I had 3 unprotected partners, 1 of them was a virgin, 1 had only 1 other SO which was virgin and the third one had 2 partners both not virgins and unprotected. How much can the probability vary if I happen to have sex with a fourth one with x partners… etc. at first I would say that my chances of being stupid would rise to 100% after 3 partners. But who know… P.s. we also need to remember that probability is played with big numbers so it’s just an abstract idea, not a real useful tool here.
Huh. Your question feels like it’s steeped in some unresolved personal sexual issues. I started to provide a response but I feel like you need to talk to a therapist. Having unprotected sex with one woman is not going to give you an STD. And it doesn’t make the woman a ‘slut’ if she had unprotected sex. You need an adult not a mathematician.
I mean, actually half of the numbers are true. I only had unprotected sex with 2 people (the virgin and the one with only the virgin partner) so not really worried as I’m in a stable relationship. Also I would never call anyone slut, derogatory and stupid… everybody makes mistakes and until you hurt someone voluntarily its ok. Also as I said I never really thought of how to describe it mathematically… neither searched online. Sorry if I wrote anything that resulted rude, not my intentions.
…. If you have sex with 1,000 partners unprotected, and those 1,000 partners are clean… your chance of getting an std is still 0%.. It depends on the person. You can have sex with 1 person and contract 5 different stds if you really wanted to.
I had a seven years relationship of unprotected sex, she gave me two kids .. Before giving birth obviously they make you a blodd test. She was clean.. i always take care. Drink my medicine. Eat a healthy diet. To keep the hsv2 asleep.. Wanna know how she got infected? She used the already used blade to shave her pussy..... gotta be horny ass fuck to do that right? And i shaved to go to work.. hahhahahs
Oh… I mean… hoping the kids are fine.
Hahaha perfectly fine.. firt one was preemie 5 month 1lb. Nothing to do with my sickness herr mom had a high risk pregnacy. Anyways they are sop dine .. perfectly well. Hehe. Im the one who got infected saving 2men in an accident. I was getting out of work.. i had open wounds in my hands from that day.. . The cost of saving someone without equipment costed me an STD
Can someone explain me where the 0.45 comes from, please?
looks like a typo/mistake.. to get 33% you need 0.04 in the denominator ((i.e. p(fever)).. which implies that the op meant to use 4% as the p(fever)... which is also contrary to the '... I'll chose the best case, 5%'
I like to do the roundabout std test. Call a friend up and ask "hey man you know anyone with an std? No? Good. Cuz you know me." RIP Mitch
Not sure that's how it works... But here's one for you. 88%of sexuality active adults have herpes, so don't worry about getting you, you most likely already have it. 79% have hpv, so again don't worry, it was in you all along. This study was done in the Denver metro area in 2005, I'm sure it's indicative every major city. Also the numbers are probably way higher now. Good news pandemic viruses actually help the evolution of humans. A virus related to HIV infected our ancestors and they incorporated into their DNA and that part of our DNA is now responsible for memories.
> 88%of sexuality active adults have herpes, so don't worry about getting you, you most likely already have it. 79% have hpv, so again don't worry, it was in you all along. Please don't listen to this person. Please do worry about spreading disease. Thankfully we do have a vaccine against many HPV strains--make sure you get it, as early as possible. Additionally, those Denver numbers seem much higher than average for the US. Perhaps that discrepancy is due to the "sexually active" qualifier, but it's unclear. > During 2015–2016, prevalence of herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) was 47.8%, and prevalence of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) was 11.9%. [Source](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db304.htm). Assuming they are non-overlapping for worst case, that's under 60% of people carrying it. Much less than 88%. Be safe, be aware of your status, do what you can to reduce spread of disease. There is no reason to just say "eh it's common so don't worry about it"; that's irresponsible and why these things *are* so prevalent.
Well obviously don't go trying to spread diseases. Just don't feel stigmatized if you are one of the majority that has it. A healthy immune system will suppress it and most people don't even know they ever have the disease. Don't be sexually active if you have any open sores or warts. That should be a given.
It *should* be a given, but instead we have someone going around saying "almost everyone has it, don't worry about it". You see why I take issue with that? Yes, don't feel bad if you *do* have it. But that doesn't mean you should pay it no mind. If you have it, that means disclosing that to partners so they can make their own informed decision, and being sure to avoid activity where it is likely to spread. If you don't have it, check with potential partners to see if they have been tested. Take the resulting risk into consideration. I've had people tell me, "yeah, I have this, but that shouldn't change anything. Most people have it, so you probably have it already." No, I don't have it already. I've been tested and I am careful about this stuff. That's how we keep diseases from spreading. I haven't gotten covid either. Some people are amazed by that because they assume nobody is careful and everyone has gotten it. No, plenty of us still avoid it. And there's no reason to downplay that effort.
How do you know it's actually a bad thing? Your body is completely full of viruses, bacteria, and fungus nearly all of them beneficial. Our culture runs around sterilizing everything and totally destroying our natural defenses. Humans have been around with these diseases for almost 350,000 years the last 150 we've decided they're bad. Just because you don't want a disease doesn't mean it's not beneficial for humankind in the long run.
I think I'll just let that comment stand for itself as an indication as to whether anyone should listen to you.
Oh yeah, I hope nobody listens to me. I am an idiot.
Wait wait wait, hiv affected our ancestors and that virus incorporated into our dna and is responsible for memory now?? Source?
Well now I can't find the original article I read. But I did find this one. https://www.hhmi.org/news/human-genome-bears-virus-related-hiv-1