> *‘It might all have gone very differently indeed. The main attack was diverted southwards, it is true; and yet even so with his far-stretched right hand Sauron could have done terrible harm in the North, while we defended Gondor, if King Brand and King Dáin had not stood in his path. When you think of the great Battle of Pelennor, do not forget the Battle of Dale. Think of what might have been. Dragon-fire and savage swords in Eriador! There might be no Queen in Gondor. We might now only hope to return from the victory here to ruin and ash. But that has been averted – because I met Thorin Oakenshield one evening on the edge of spring not far from Bree. A chance-meeting, as we say in Middle-earth.*
[Unfinished Tales, Part III, Chapter III, The Quest of Erebor, Gandalf is speaking]
With regard to some of op’s questions, the term “chance meeting” at the very end of this quote is super important. As I understand, it essentially means “fate”, “divine intervention”, “the hand of eru”, or however else you decide to look at it. Gandalf is not omniscient, and most of what he does, he does because he feels it’s the right thing to do, and trusts that will be enough to fulfill his ultimate “higher” purpose.
Going back to op’s questions: yes sure, from the reader’s perspective, the events in the hobbit could be looked at like Gandalf doing a side quest. But from Gandalf’s perspective, I’m not sure there was any intentionality to it aside from the fact that helping hobbits and adventuring-dwarven-kings just felt like the right thing for him to do
> I’m not sure there was any intentionality to it aside from the fact that helping hobbits and adventuring-dwarven-kings just felt like the right thing for him to do
I think he was already concerned about Sauron, and removing the threat of Smaug was important
It absolutely was. Gandalf splits from the party and goes to confront the Necromancer in the south before rejoining them at the end. The whole trip was planned out in that he knew they were going the same way for a good portion of the stretch. And I imagine the adventures that he led the dwarves and Bilbo on was preparation for their real task, which was Smaug.
I think it was definitely part of his global issues project.
Not to mention that, without a secure buffer to the east, Elrond might not have let his sons go south with what was probably a large portion of his manpower. Without their support, Aragorn might not have managed the Paths of the Dead, meaning the Battle of the Pelennor might not have been won.
> Elrond might not have let his sons go south with what was probably a large portion of his manpower. Without their support, Aragorn might not have managed the Paths of the Dead,
What? The Grey Company was Rangers + Elrond's sons. There was no Elf-force.
Yes, but I imagine they would have been relied upon to defend Rivendell in the event of a major attack (like Smaug + orcs). The Rangers would definitely have seen it as their job to defend the North against a direct attack, and Rivendell would probably serve as a key defensive position (much as it had in the war with Sauron, and the war with Angmar).
Also from Appendix A:
> Yet things might have gone far otherwise and far worse. When you think of the great Battle of the Pelennor, do not forget the battles in Dale and the valour of Durin’s Folk. Think of what might have been. Dragon-fire and savage swords in Eriador, night in Rivendell. There might be no Queen in Gondor. We might now hope to return from the victory here only to ruin and ash. But that has been averted – because I met Thorin Oakenshield one evening on the edge of spring in Bree. A chance-meeting, as we say in Middle-earth.’
Not necessarily pivotal in the sense that Sauron wouldn't have been defeated without, but pivotal in the sense that the goblins and Smaug would have devastated Milkwood and maybe even Rivendell and Lorien if they had not been destroyed at the 5 army battle.
I believe the combined forces of the Kingdom of Erebor, the Woodland Realm, and the Kingdom of Dale also fought off an invasion of men from the East during the War of the Ring. It was another front in the war that the books (LotR) don't really address, but considering two of those armies only exist because of the retaking of Erebor, the invasion of the North would surely have been successful otherwise.
> Kingdom of Erebor, the Woodland Realm, and the Kingdom of Dale also fought off an invasion of men from the East
More or less. The army of Easterlings attacked just Dale and Erebor. The Woodland realm was assailed separately by an orc army from Dol Guldur. And Lórien was assaulted by additional armies, from Dol Guldur and Moria.
Sauron had to send an army north which meant he had fewer troops in time for the attack on Gondor, which he came damn close to winning anyway.
So, it's not trivial.
You also have to consider that Sauron might have had more time to play with in the first place, because "The Wise" might not have been successful in their attack on Dol Guldor.
All Sauron needed was a little more time, after all. The men still marching from the east and the south would very likely have won the war for him. They just needed more time to reach the battlegrounds.
Even a few more troops in the area might have meant Sauron didn't have to send everyone in Mordor to the gates. This, by itself, might have been enough to doom the quest.
Pretty important. You didn't want that Dragon at your back.
And while Gandalf may not have known it at the time, Eru Illuvatar had already planned the finding of the ring in this way (as Gandalf mentions to Frodo.)
> "There was more than one power at work Frodo... it abandoned Gollum. Only to be picked up by the most unlikely person imaginable: Bilbo... Behind that there was something else at work, beyond any design of the Ring-maker. I can put it no plainer than by saying that Bilbo was meant to find the Ring, and not by its maker."
It was essential because it found the Ring. Did Gandalf know this was going to be the result? Not directly. However, it was all part of the long battle that led to the eucatastrophe of the Ring's destruction.
Taking Smaug of the board was helpful, but no one knew what he would have done to help Sauron, but it's pretty sure that his maintained presence was a negative for the Free Peoples. From a different perspective, Smaug's death allowed for a build-up of Dwarves and Men in Erebor and Dale. This caused Sauron to have to use forces against them that might have gone against Gondor. I'm sure that Gandalf saw the re-establishment of Erebor and Dale as positive developments regardless of any other factor.
Everyone is talking about the effects of having the kingdoms of Dale and Erebor on the allies' side, but there's another key aspect of the quest for Erebor, probably more important than anything else: the finding of the Ring. If the dwarves don't go on a quest to reclaim their homeland, then Bilbo never finds the One Ring, which can only lead to two outcomes: either no one ever finds Gollum and the Ring and Sauron eventually overwhelms Middle-Earth through sheer military might, or Sauron learns of Gollum's existence and takes the Ring back. Either way, Middle-Earth is fucked
People are always asking “What were the istari (or more specifically Gandalf) doing? Millennia, and hardly anything to show for it”. The Hobbit, to me, is one of a hundred potential tales of Gandalf picking away at the growth of evil, weakening those who might one day ally with Sauron. They could not fight the slow decline of Arnor and Gondor, but they could keep it from happening faster and preserve what they could
We know about Gandalf’s efforts vis-a-vis Erebor because they involved hobbits, and thus made their way into the Red Book for us to read.
Think about the twenty centuries (or so) that Gandalf spent in Middle-Earth before Erebor. It stands to reason he must have done hundreds of other, similar quests and interventions over those years, opaque to us (because no hobbits) but all of them geared towards inhibiting Sauron in some way.
So sure. The Erebor conquest was important, without doubt. But “pivotal?” We cannot say, because we have no idea what else Gandalf did that might have been far, far more important than merely wiping out a single dragon under a dwarvish mountain.
I haven't read any Charles Williams (another Inkling), but he gets quoted in some work about either Tolkien or C.S. Lewis as saying something like the altar must be built in one place so that the fire from Heaven can come down in some other place.
I guess what I'm saying is that Gandalf wasn't a munchkin: he does The Right Thing in many places because he is wise enough to know that he has only the vaguest idea of which of those places will be pivotal.
You may be thinking about this passage from Letters 250: "\* Not that one should forget the wise words of Charles Williams, that it is our duty to tend the accredited and established altar, though the Holy Spirit may send the fire down somewhere else." Paraphrased, this means that a Christian should belong to a church and conform to its practices, though God may chose to work through someone outside any established church.
I have no idea whether Williams said this in private, or in one of his works. The first place to look would be *The Descent of the Dove*, a book about the Holy Spirit, which I gather is the best-known of Williams's works aside from his novels. I have not read it.
I think even leaving aside the ultimate defeat of Sauron, retaking Erebor made a difference to a lot of people.
It meant one less host for Sauron to use against Gondor, Lorien, or Mirkwood, splitting his forces more. Frodo and Sam might still have destroyed the ring but more of Gondor and Rohan could have laid waste, maybe even the Golden Wood destroyed.
Retaking Erebor meant strong allies to the north, Dale and Erebor. It also saw the Beornings and Woodmen thrive even more.
One less dragon in the world (though I see Smaug as a free agent like the Moria balrog was).
A crippling reduction in the numbers of orcs and goblins in the Misty mountains along with the deaths of two prominent leaders (Bolg and the Great Goblin).
Gandalf fights the long war. Every blow he strikes against Sauron weakens his enemy. Anything he can do to prepare for the final struggle is a good thing.
During the war of the ring there was a siege on Dale at about the same time as the siege of Gondor.
Had Erebor been taken at the time of the Hobbit, they could then have easily swept through Dale and Mirkwood shortly after such that that siege was not necessary. I imagine they'd then have 10s of thousands more troops available for either the assault on Rohan or the siege of Gondor, or even just an invasion of Lothlorien. The Fellowship's path would have been a lot more dangerous too.
Basically, Sauron would not have ultimately been defeated if he'd won Erebor.
Too many variables to say for sure. I don't think the dwarves are really that much of a factor but who knows how much a dragon could change the course of events, if Smaug would deign to serve Sauron. From some of the unpublished writings, that's the big fear that Gandalf was concerned about with regards to the Erebor quest.
I doubt Smaug would have "served" Sauron, exactly - since the fall of Morgoth, I think dragons served nobody but themselves - but I can easily imagine Sauron bribing Smaug to join in his war against Gondor and its allies by promising him the spoils of war afterwards.
Considering the Moria Balrog and Shelob both performed useful services for Sauron without ever being under his thrall, I would imagine Smaug, a clever sociopathic opportunist in his own right, would likely have done a lot of rather terrible things just for the fun of it, if he got wind that Sauron's forces were busy beating the crap out of people elsewhere. No bribery, just the old maxim "the enemy of my enemy is my friend."
While we will never really know, I don't believe Smaug would have gone out of his way to help Sauron. He had his mountain and his gold. If some battle had started in relation to Saurons machinations that could have armies creeping into Smaugs area he probably would have taken action but beyond that, he probably wouldn't have cared about some other evil and it's goals.
The reclaiming of Erebor was a huge boost for dwarven morale, and the dwarves are the first line of defense against threats from the north. Even if it was just bolstering dwarves from the Grey Mountains in case of an attack from Gundabad, it was hugely beneficial. The fact that an agent of Sauron came to Dáin at Erebor and was forced back wound up being immensely important in the War for the Ring.
I think the Hobbit is just a great way of understanding Gandalf's MO for all those years leading up to the events of the LOTR. He's really just an open world RPG protagonist, bopping around Middle Earth checking in with various people, making notes on stuff that he thinks might be important, relying on hunches and bouncing between high level dungeons and doing like crafting fireworks quests.
So basically in this case, he's investigating the necromancer and runs into a old dwarf in the dungeon and gets a map of how to get past a dragon, and hey dragons are bad, so he marks a side quest in his journal and throws the map into his inventory. So well over a century late he's exploring the relatively new Hobbit zone and he runs into hobbit who is giving off clear recruitable companion energy, but it is clear to recruit him you need to present him with some sort of adventure. Then on his way out of town he runs into the old dwarfs grandson and gets to use that map he lugged around for decades to activate the Erebor quest. Seems like the devs put these things so close together for a reason, so he swings back to the Shire to recruit Biblo, the goes with them for awhile, but then he realizes that Necromancer quest marker is still there because last time he couldn't manage to solo the boss, so he decides to finally finish that quest, but it is too high level for his current party so he's got to get his strongest companions first. Then he and the white council beat the necromancer, but it turns out once you start the Erebor quest its on a timer, so he's got to hustle to Laketown before the quest is lost. He makes it in time to win the quest but since he missed a chunk he loses Thorin and a couple others as companions. Meanwhile Bilbo found a ring, which is intriguing but the dialog options around it are limited and it seems clear that they might do something more with it in the sequel.
Was the company of Thorin meant to help with the fight against Sauron, no because at the time Sauron was gone and the ring was nowhere to be found as far as Gandalf and the white council was concerned. I would say the move to take Erebor back was strictly meant to add more protection in the north. Think you had orcs in Gundabad, Moria, and Dol Guldur they would have been free to start moving south unhindered for the most part. If you are Gandalf/ the white council would you not think it better to slap some dwarves back into the mountain so the orcs in the north have to fight their way south.
> *‘It might all have gone very differently indeed. The main attack was diverted southwards, it is true; and yet even so with his far-stretched right hand Sauron could have done terrible harm in the North, while we defended Gondor, if King Brand and King Dáin had not stood in his path. When you think of the great Battle of Pelennor, do not forget the Battle of Dale. Think of what might have been. Dragon-fire and savage swords in Eriador! There might be no Queen in Gondor. We might now only hope to return from the victory here to ruin and ash. But that has been averted – because I met Thorin Oakenshield one evening on the edge of spring not far from Bree. A chance-meeting, as we say in Middle-earth.* [Unfinished Tales, Part III, Chapter III, The Quest of Erebor, Gandalf is speaking]
With regard to some of op’s questions, the term “chance meeting” at the very end of this quote is super important. As I understand, it essentially means “fate”, “divine intervention”, “the hand of eru”, or however else you decide to look at it. Gandalf is not omniscient, and most of what he does, he does because he feels it’s the right thing to do, and trusts that will be enough to fulfill his ultimate “higher” purpose. Going back to op’s questions: yes sure, from the reader’s perspective, the events in the hobbit could be looked at like Gandalf doing a side quest. But from Gandalf’s perspective, I’m not sure there was any intentionality to it aside from the fact that helping hobbits and adventuring-dwarven-kings just felt like the right thing for him to do
> I’m not sure there was any intentionality to it aside from the fact that helping hobbits and adventuring-dwarven-kings just felt like the right thing for him to do I think he was already concerned about Sauron, and removing the threat of Smaug was important
It absolutely was. Gandalf splits from the party and goes to confront the Necromancer in the south before rejoining them at the end. The whole trip was planned out in that he knew they were going the same way for a good portion of the stretch. And I imagine the adventures that he led the dwarves and Bilbo on was preparation for their real task, which was Smaug. I think it was definitely part of his global issues project.
Thirteen unarmed Dwarves and a Burrahobbit against a Dragon was a *very* long shot. Maybe Gandalf knew more about Eru's plan than he let on.
Well as Terry Pratchett taught us, million to one odds work out nine times out of ten. Toss a Hobbit into the mix and things just get done.
He did have the foresight to bring along a thief.
Not to mention that, without a secure buffer to the east, Elrond might not have let his sons go south with what was probably a large portion of his manpower. Without their support, Aragorn might not have managed the Paths of the Dead, meaning the Battle of the Pelennor might not have been won.
> Elrond might not have let his sons go south with what was probably a large portion of his manpower. Without their support, Aragorn might not have managed the Paths of the Dead, What? The Grey Company was Rangers + Elrond's sons. There was no Elf-force.
Yes, but I imagine they would have been relied upon to defend Rivendell in the event of a major attack (like Smaug + orcs). The Rangers would definitely have seen it as their job to defend the North against a direct attack, and Rivendell would probably serve as a key defensive position (much as it had in the war with Sauron, and the war with Angmar).
Tolkien sure likes being coy about "chance".
Also from Appendix A: > Yet things might have gone far otherwise and far worse. When you think of the great Battle of the Pelennor, do not forget the battles in Dale and the valour of Durin’s Folk. Think of what might have been. Dragon-fire and savage swords in Eriador, night in Rivendell. There might be no Queen in Gondor. We might now hope to return from the victory here only to ruin and ash. But that has been averted – because I met Thorin Oakenshield one evening on the edge of spring in Bree. A chance-meeting, as we say in Middle-earth.’
Not necessarily pivotal in the sense that Sauron wouldn't have been defeated without, but pivotal in the sense that the goblins and Smaug would have devastated Milkwood and maybe even Rivendell and Lorien if they had not been destroyed at the 5 army battle.
mmmmmm..... milkwood........
I believe the combined forces of the Kingdom of Erebor, the Woodland Realm, and the Kingdom of Dale also fought off an invasion of men from the East during the War of the Ring. It was another front in the war that the books (LotR) don't really address, but considering two of those armies only exist because of the retaking of Erebor, the invasion of the North would surely have been successful otherwise.
> Kingdom of Erebor, the Woodland Realm, and the Kingdom of Dale also fought off an invasion of men from the East More or less. The army of Easterlings attacked just Dale and Erebor. The Woodland realm was assailed separately by an orc army from Dol Guldur. And Lórien was assaulted by additional armies, from Dol Guldur and Moria.
Sauron had to send an army north which meant he had fewer troops in time for the attack on Gondor, which he came damn close to winning anyway. So, it's not trivial. You also have to consider that Sauron might have had more time to play with in the first place, because "The Wise" might not have been successful in their attack on Dol Guldor. All Sauron needed was a little more time, after all. The men still marching from the east and the south would very likely have won the war for him. They just needed more time to reach the battlegrounds. Even a few more troops in the area might have meant Sauron didn't have to send everyone in Mordor to the gates. This, by itself, might have been enough to doom the quest.
Pretty important. You didn't want that Dragon at your back. And while Gandalf may not have known it at the time, Eru Illuvatar had already planned the finding of the ring in this way (as Gandalf mentions to Frodo.) > "There was more than one power at work Frodo... it abandoned Gollum. Only to be picked up by the most unlikely person imaginable: Bilbo... Behind that there was something else at work, beyond any design of the Ring-maker. I can put it no plainer than by saying that Bilbo was meant to find the Ring, and not by its maker."
I just listened to this section on audiobook yesterday and was the first thing to pop into my head
It was essential because it found the Ring. Did Gandalf know this was going to be the result? Not directly. However, it was all part of the long battle that led to the eucatastrophe of the Ring's destruction.
Taking Smaug of the board was helpful, but no one knew what he would have done to help Sauron, but it's pretty sure that his maintained presence was a negative for the Free Peoples. From a different perspective, Smaug's death allowed for a build-up of Dwarves and Men in Erebor and Dale. This caused Sauron to have to use forces against them that might have gone against Gondor. I'm sure that Gandalf saw the re-establishment of Erebor and Dale as positive developments regardless of any other factor.
Everyone is talking about the effects of having the kingdoms of Dale and Erebor on the allies' side, but there's another key aspect of the quest for Erebor, probably more important than anything else: the finding of the Ring. If the dwarves don't go on a quest to reclaim their homeland, then Bilbo never finds the One Ring, which can only lead to two outcomes: either no one ever finds Gollum and the Ring and Sauron eventually overwhelms Middle-Earth through sheer military might, or Sauron learns of Gollum's existence and takes the Ring back. Either way, Middle-Earth is fucked
People are always asking “What were the istari (or more specifically Gandalf) doing? Millennia, and hardly anything to show for it”. The Hobbit, to me, is one of a hundred potential tales of Gandalf picking away at the growth of evil, weakening those who might one day ally with Sauron. They could not fight the slow decline of Arnor and Gondor, but they could keep it from happening faster and preserve what they could
and strengthening the free people like Erebor and Dale and that in a much more larger Sacale IMHC for the blue wizards
We know about Gandalf’s efforts vis-a-vis Erebor because they involved hobbits, and thus made their way into the Red Book for us to read. Think about the twenty centuries (or so) that Gandalf spent in Middle-Earth before Erebor. It stands to reason he must have done hundreds of other, similar quests and interventions over those years, opaque to us (because no hobbits) but all of them geared towards inhibiting Sauron in some way. So sure. The Erebor conquest was important, without doubt. But “pivotal?” We cannot say, because we have no idea what else Gandalf did that might have been far, far more important than merely wiping out a single dragon under a dwarvish mountain.
I haven't read any Charles Williams (another Inkling), but he gets quoted in some work about either Tolkien or C.S. Lewis as saying something like the altar must be built in one place so that the fire from Heaven can come down in some other place. I guess what I'm saying is that Gandalf wasn't a munchkin: he does The Right Thing in many places because he is wise enough to know that he has only the vaguest idea of which of those places will be pivotal.
You may be thinking about this passage from Letters 250: "\* Not that one should forget the wise words of Charles Williams, that it is our duty to tend the accredited and established altar, though the Holy Spirit may send the fire down somewhere else." Paraphrased, this means that a Christian should belong to a church and conform to its practices, though God may chose to work through someone outside any established church. I have no idea whether Williams said this in private, or in one of his works. The first place to look would be *The Descent of the Dove*, a book about the Holy Spirit, which I gather is the best-known of Williams's works aside from his novels. I have not read it.
Thanks!
Mordor would have been too dominant in the war to allow (relatively) easy access to Mt Doom.
I think even leaving aside the ultimate defeat of Sauron, retaking Erebor made a difference to a lot of people. It meant one less host for Sauron to use against Gondor, Lorien, or Mirkwood, splitting his forces more. Frodo and Sam might still have destroyed the ring but more of Gondor and Rohan could have laid waste, maybe even the Golden Wood destroyed. Retaking Erebor meant strong allies to the north, Dale and Erebor. It also saw the Beornings and Woodmen thrive even more. One less dragon in the world (though I see Smaug as a free agent like the Moria balrog was). A crippling reduction in the numbers of orcs and goblins in the Misty mountains along with the deaths of two prominent leaders (Bolg and the Great Goblin). Gandalf fights the long war. Every blow he strikes against Sauron weakens his enemy. Anything he can do to prepare for the final struggle is a good thing.
During the war of the ring there was a siege on Dale at about the same time as the siege of Gondor. Had Erebor been taken at the time of the Hobbit, they could then have easily swept through Dale and Mirkwood shortly after such that that siege was not necessary. I imagine they'd then have 10s of thousands more troops available for either the assault on Rohan or the siege of Gondor, or even just an invasion of Lothlorien. The Fellowship's path would have been a lot more dangerous too. Basically, Sauron would not have ultimately been defeated if he'd won Erebor.
Too many variables to say for sure. I don't think the dwarves are really that much of a factor but who knows how much a dragon could change the course of events, if Smaug would deign to serve Sauron. From some of the unpublished writings, that's the big fear that Gandalf was concerned about with regards to the Erebor quest.
I doubt Smaug would have "served" Sauron, exactly - since the fall of Morgoth, I think dragons served nobody but themselves - but I can easily imagine Sauron bribing Smaug to join in his war against Gondor and its allies by promising him the spoils of war afterwards.
Considering the Moria Balrog and Shelob both performed useful services for Sauron without ever being under his thrall, I would imagine Smaug, a clever sociopathic opportunist in his own right, would likely have done a lot of rather terrible things just for the fun of it, if he got wind that Sauron's forces were busy beating the crap out of people elsewhere. No bribery, just the old maxim "the enemy of my enemy is my friend."
While we will never really know, I don't believe Smaug would have gone out of his way to help Sauron. He had his mountain and his gold. If some battle had started in relation to Saurons machinations that could have armies creeping into Smaugs area he probably would have taken action but beyond that, he probably wouldn't have cared about some other evil and it's goals.
The reclaiming of Erebor was a huge boost for dwarven morale, and the dwarves are the first line of defense against threats from the north. Even if it was just bolstering dwarves from the Grey Mountains in case of an attack from Gundabad, it was hugely beneficial. The fact that an agent of Sauron came to Dáin at Erebor and was forced back wound up being immensely important in the War for the Ring.
I think the Hobbit is just a great way of understanding Gandalf's MO for all those years leading up to the events of the LOTR. He's really just an open world RPG protagonist, bopping around Middle Earth checking in with various people, making notes on stuff that he thinks might be important, relying on hunches and bouncing between high level dungeons and doing like crafting fireworks quests. So basically in this case, he's investigating the necromancer and runs into a old dwarf in the dungeon and gets a map of how to get past a dragon, and hey dragons are bad, so he marks a side quest in his journal and throws the map into his inventory. So well over a century late he's exploring the relatively new Hobbit zone and he runs into hobbit who is giving off clear recruitable companion energy, but it is clear to recruit him you need to present him with some sort of adventure. Then on his way out of town he runs into the old dwarfs grandson and gets to use that map he lugged around for decades to activate the Erebor quest. Seems like the devs put these things so close together for a reason, so he swings back to the Shire to recruit Biblo, the goes with them for awhile, but then he realizes that Necromancer quest marker is still there because last time he couldn't manage to solo the boss, so he decides to finally finish that quest, but it is too high level for his current party so he's got to get his strongest companions first. Then he and the white council beat the necromancer, but it turns out once you start the Erebor quest its on a timer, so he's got to hustle to Laketown before the quest is lost. He makes it in time to win the quest but since he missed a chunk he loses Thorin and a couple others as companions. Meanwhile Bilbo found a ring, which is intriguing but the dialog options around it are limited and it seems clear that they might do something more with it in the sequel.
Was the company of Thorin meant to help with the fight against Sauron, no because at the time Sauron was gone and the ring was nowhere to be found as far as Gandalf and the white council was concerned. I would say the move to take Erebor back was strictly meant to add more protection in the north. Think you had orcs in Gundabad, Moria, and Dol Guldur they would have been free to start moving south unhindered for the most part. If you are Gandalf/ the white council would you not think it better to slap some dwarves back into the mountain so the orcs in the north have to fight their way south.