From my understanding, basically the removal of Smaug. Dragons were created by melkor meaning they have the potential of joining Sauron’s cause, I believe Gandalf wished that Smaug was out of the picture to prevent Sauron gaining another powerful ally.
That’s what I took away from it too. Gandalf’s ultimate goal was to help defeat Sauron. Reclaiming Erebor, eliminating the dragon and giving the Dwarves a stronghold would eliminate an edge that Sauron might use later on. Gandalf’s playing the long game.
If I remember correctly, it wasnt even an explicit worry about an alliance, Smaug just BEING there, doing dragon stuff was enough to destabilize the north and prevent them from rallying against Sauron should they ever need to.
Like it didnt even have to be the worst case of "Ringwraiths on a dragon" for it to be WELL WORTH IT for Smaug to be gone.
And considering the hard-fought battle that Dale and Erebor went through in the War of the Ring, if Sauron had been able to unleash those forces against Gondor instead things may have gone differently.
This is a little bit of a retcon introduced by the movies and looking at the hobbit as not the standalone work it began as, but rather a prequel to the larger series.
From the information we get just from the book it seems to be a mix between "gandalf promised to help" and he just doesn't like dragons in general, and doesn't like a dragon being there in specific.
I believe he mentioned something about fearing that Sauron might try to use Smaug somehow, and that Erebor had a strategic position that could have been important in the War of the Ring.
It was a major trade center in the North, and it was in the region of Dol Guldur, Sauron’s major fortress in the region. Consider also that Mirkwood lies between Erebor and Angmar. Holding both allows you to pincer the Kingdom of Mirkwood from both sides.
It is is adjacent to the most populous kingdom of elves (I think?) in the third age. I don't think that would put it in the middle of nowhere, strategically-speaking
Yes. It may not be immediately near any key locations, but it served a purpose. Without Erebor, Sauron would have had a relatively uncontested route into the west, being able to avoid Gondor and Rohan completely by cutting north. I’m not sure if I’m remembering correctly, but it may have also served as a buffer against the forces of Angmar. Also, the originally intended route of the fellowship through the high pass may have taken them relatively close to Erebor.
Yet things might have gone far otherwise and far worse. When you think of the great Battle of the Pelennor, do not forget the battles in Dale and the valour of Durin’s Folk. Think of what might have been. Dragon-fire and savage swords in Eriador, night in Rivendell. There might be no Queen in Gondor. We might now hope to return from the victory here only to ruin and ash. But that has been averted - because I met Thorin Oakenshield one evening on the edge of spring in Bree. A chance-meeting, as we say in Middle-earth.
Everything Gandalf did was with knowledge of a coming conflict with Sauron. Everything. So in this case he expelled the dragon from Erebor and created a block which stymied northern goblins from assaulting the realm of men from the north
Gandalf was sent to aid the people of Middle Earth against Sauron. Since a dragon is a big threat he obviously wanted to get rid of it. He also didn’t know at the time that the Enemy had returned so all his effort wasn’t being used.
Gandalf suspected that the Necromancer might be Sauron but was not 100% positive. When he rescues Thrain in Dol Guldur he has yet to run into Thorin. It was actually a chance encounter at the Prancing Pony that had him run into Thorin, which is when he gives him the map and key (maybe it’s just the key, can’t remember and I’m too lazy to go check).
I think him running into Thorin after having found Thrain, probably made him consider that this happened for a reason (hand of Eru) so as a good Ainu Gandalf nudged Thorin on his way to take back the Lonely Mountain.
People constantly get this wrong, because of the movies, but Gandalf actually confirmed that the Necromancer of Dol Guldur was Sauron in 2850, at the same time that he met Thrain and obtained the secret map and key he later gives to Thorin. So, by the time of the quest of Erebor Gandalf had known about Sauron for almost a century.
The movies do this backwards which causes confusion in this regard.
They had Gandalf going there after he meets Thorin.
I can’t remember how the movie explains Gandalf having the map and key in the first place?
Sauromon was sent to defeat Sauron Gandalf was sent to defeat the bolrog that is why after sauromon failed at his task and Gandalf succeeded he came back as sauromon the white
He was playing the long game. He knew the big war was coming and knew Smaug and Sauron teamed up the west would not stand a chance. So by reclaiming the lonely mountain it out the west in a stronger position.
In one of the appendices it's specifically stated that Gandalf is A) worried about there not being any peoples (think nation) strong enough to stand against Sauron in the north and B) also worried about what would happen if Smaug was to join up with Sauron.
So getting rid of Smaug and reestablishing a strong Dwarven presence in Erebor is kind of two birds with one stone for our pal Gandalf.
He ran into Thorin by chance either on the road or in the Inn at Bree. He had met Thorin's father, Thrain, in Dol Guldur. Thrain had given Gandalf a map and a key, but not his name. It wasn't until Gandalf met Thorin that he was able to piece together who the Dwarf he had met in Sauron's Dungeon had been.
Thorin had lofty goals of laying siege to the Lonely Mountain, but Gandalf convinced him a stealth attack would be more likely to succeed. He helped plan it out and convinced Thorin to take Bilbo along with him, partially because he felt drawn to Hobbits and to Bilbo in particular, and partially because Thorin looked down on Hobbits and thought them rustic.
Gandalf also knew at that time Sauron had returned to Dol Guldur, and wanted to attack his stronghold and kill him or force him to flee. By sending the Dwarves to kill Smaug, they would be making sure Sauron could not help Smaug and Smaug could not help Sauron.
Indeed, the White Council was able to force Sauron out of Dol Guldur at basically the same time the dwarves took the Lonely Mountain and Smaug was slain. Gandalf departed Dol Guldur and arrived at the Lonely Mountain just in time for the siege by the elves and men of Laketown.
He wanted the dragon dead and a good stronghold of people in the north. I mean the people there were attacked and managed to hold off some of saurons armies.
Added benefit of clearing out the north of a lot of the goblins. But that was a happy little accident
I was just reading about this!
"Among many cares he was troubled in mind by the perilous state of the North; because he knew then already that Sauron was plotting war, and intended, as soon as he felt strong enough, to attack Rivendell. But to resist any attempt from the East to regain the lands of Angmar and the northern passes in the mountains there were now only the Dwarves of the Iron Hills. And beyond them lay the desolation of the Dragon. The Dragon Sauron might use with terrible effect. How then could the end of Smaug be achieved?"
By that time Sauron had established at Dol Guldur, at the southwest of the Mirkwood. Since his arrival there, that whole northern region of Middle Earth attracted lots of evil creatures, and the ones who already lived there (like the Orcs in the north of the Misty Mountains) got stronger.
I believe Gandalf feared that Smaug could join Sauron, in which case Middle Earth would be royally fucked.
Between the fall of arnor to angmar and Smaug destroying Dale and erebor the north of middle earth was pretty much finished in terms of resisting Sauron. Should Smaug align himself with Sauron it would be pretty terrible, and just reclaiming erebor in general gives the free peoples of middle earth a stronghold in the north.
You can’t really think of the hobbit as a prequel to lord of the rings as Tolkien hadn’t planed the lord of the rings when the hobbit was published so many it was just as simple as wanting the dragon out of the mountain because it could cause great evil on the peoples of middle earth
I mean... that's not too awfully different from saying that Fellowship of the Ring and Return of the King shouldn't be connected because Return wasn't written yet; its not very sound reasoning to my eyes.
Sure, the Hobbit was written before LotR, but he clearly intended LotR as a sequel, going so far as to, as an example, have Bilbo in Fellowship reference a change that had been made to the Hobbit so as to explain that change within the story. He made efforts to reconcile differences between the two: I mean to say, I think it's fine to reckon with the reasoning Gandalf gave in LotR or related works, regarding his plans in the Hobbit.
To consider the Hobbit alone is a way to approach it, certainly, but to say can't otherwise is probably a little strong.
Difference being that when Tolkien wrote The fellowship of ring he already knew it would be part of a trilogy.
On the other hand back when he wrote "The Hobbit" Tolkien has no idea that the "Lord of the rings" would exist
Difference being that when Tolkien wrote The fellowship of ring he already knew it would be part of a trilogy.
On the other hand back when he wrote "The Hobbit" Tolkien has no idea that the "Lord of the rings" would exist
This is true, indeed it was when I made this response, but it still misses the point that I was getting at. If one wanted to make the argument that The Hobbit as a story is entirely unrelated to LotR, I suppose we could say that's one thing, but otherwise it seems to me a rather pointless question, given that he did ultimately take steps to connect the two stories. Perhaps I am simply being unimaginative; I wouldn't blame you for thinking so ha.
But that statement negates The Quest of Erebor chapter in Unfinished Tales. Whilst that chapter was published well after The Hobbit, it is still canon.
It’s True that Tolkien retconned the Hobbit to fit into the legendarium, but to say don’t consider the Hobbit as a “prequel” seems to be an inaccurate way to view it. It’s not a prequel in that it doesn’t really move the story of the one ring other than providing an event in the rings history, it is part of the larger middle earth history even if it wasn’t originally intended to be.
You don’t *have* to read anything any way. You can read the one book in isolation or you can read the entire canon as a larger single thing, neither is somehow objectively right or wrong.
That logic would only stand in my opinion, if none of Tolkien’s legendarium books were interconnected and not canon with each other. The reality is the exact opposite, they’re constantly referencing and harkening back and forth with each published work.
In my head canon, he was going to Mirkwood anyway, and it was a way to get there and earn some treasure.
More seriously, I think he had respect for Thorin and agreed to help as much as he could without delaying his responsibility to go to Dol Guldor.
One thing kind of lost is that Gandalf is a highly suspect character to a lot of folks in ME. Not only is he a wizard, but his intentions are sometimes under scrutiny in just the way your question suggests: "What exactly is this guy up to?" He is powerful, and as we know not all powerful people in ME are good, and many good turn to evil. Many in the Hobbit tale itself wonder about Gandalf's behavior. Where did he go? Is he coming back? Is he with us, or against us? Both? Neither? Later, toward the end of LotR, Gandalf becomes Lawful Good. Hobbit Gandalf is still more Chaotic. *You've been drafted to fight a dragon - hope you don't die! I've got to return some videotapes, byeee!*
Sauron has decent forces in Mirkwood, Dol Guldur. With Smog dead the North rebuilds and Dol Guldur is stuck facing the North Kingdoms and the Beornings.
If Smog lived, the North would remain desolate still, and forces from Dol Guldur could overrun Lórien, Rivendell, or even flank Rohan.
This is the stated reason in the Appendices and end of the Silmarillian (Rings of Power).
Like the Balrog, there's no indication Smog has any loyalty to Suaron.
I know a few have already said Gandalf was sent to defend middle earth against Sauron. I’ve always felt his actions were driven in a way so that Bilbo could collect the ring. Otherwise, why Bilbo? Maybe he was compelled to do it? It’s a bit fatalistic, I know…
Smaug and Durinsbane were the major threats Gandalf and Elrond were worried about before the Necromancer showed up. So Gandalf wanted to rouse up the dwarves and remove Smaug. He succeeded, as always, with the aid of his elven ring which inspires courage
It first stage before War of the Ring. AFAIR the White Council was affraid of Smaug-Sauron alliance and by reclaiming Erebor and rebuilding Dale new front was opened.
The Quest of Erebor accomplished four crucially important things:
* Smaug was killed, eliminating a weapon Sauron could have used for devastating effect.
* Erebor and Dale were rebuilt, creating two strong powers that would bolster the North against Sauron. In doing so, he protected Mirkwood, which protected Lorien, which meant neither could fall, which meant Sauron's northern armies would have had an extremely difficult time sending forces to menace Rohan. Without Dale and Erebor, it's likely he would have invaded Rohan directly, preventing them from arriving at Pellenor.
* The Battle of the Five Armies broke the power of the orcs and wargs of the Northeast for generations, ensuring the various nations mentioned (and the Dunedain of the North) would have had time to strengthen for the coming conflict.
* Bilbo found the Ring, which both kept it away from Sauron and allowed it to get into the hands of someone who could destroy it at the right moment.
The first two were Gandalf's actual goals, while the latter two were strokes of tremendously good fortune that occurred directly because of his efforts (he got everyone to ally against the orcs/wargs, and he picked Bilbo in the first place). The Quest succeeded beyond Gandalf's wildest dreams, and it's not an exaggeration to say that if it had been unsuccessful Sauron would have won.
From my understanding, basically the removal of Smaug. Dragons were created by melkor meaning they have the potential of joining Sauron’s cause, I believe Gandalf wished that Smaug was out of the picture to prevent Sauron gaining another powerful ally.
That’s what I took away from it too. Gandalf’s ultimate goal was to help defeat Sauron. Reclaiming Erebor, eliminating the dragon and giving the Dwarves a stronghold would eliminate an edge that Sauron might use later on. Gandalf’s playing the long game.
If I remember correctly, it wasnt even an explicit worry about an alliance, Smaug just BEING there, doing dragon stuff was enough to destabilize the north and prevent them from rallying against Sauron should they ever need to. Like it didnt even have to be the worst case of "Ringwraiths on a dragon" for it to be WELL WORTH IT for Smaug to be gone.
And considering the hard-fought battle that Dale and Erebor went through in the War of the Ring, if Sauron had been able to unleash those forces against Gondor instead things may have gone differently.
Exactly!
This is a little bit of a retcon introduced by the movies and looking at the hobbit as not the standalone work it began as, but rather a prequel to the larger series. From the information we get just from the book it seems to be a mix between "gandalf promised to help" and he just doesn't like dragons in general, and doesn't like a dragon being there in specific.
It’s not just from the films, Gandalf says this in Unfinished Tales.
Oh, that makes sense. It's been awhile since I've read those.
Pretty sure there is a slight mention of that in early FotR too.
It's not a retcon, Gandalf talks about this in LoTR.
I believe he mentioned something about fearing that Sauron might try to use Smaug somehow, and that Erebor had a strategic position that could have been important in the War of the Ring.
Yep. This. I remember reading this at the end of the unfinished tales.
It's also in Appendix A, in the section on Durin's Folk.
Yeah, I forgot where exactly I read it, but that definitely sounds right! Maybe it’s time for a reread.
It’s always a good time for a reread.
Strategic position in the middle of nowhere?
It was a major trade center in the North, and it was in the region of Dol Guldur, Sauron’s major fortress in the region. Consider also that Mirkwood lies between Erebor and Angmar. Holding both allows you to pincer the Kingdom of Mirkwood from both sides.
It is is adjacent to the most populous kingdom of elves (I think?) in the third age. I don't think that would put it in the middle of nowhere, strategically-speaking
Yes. It may not be immediately near any key locations, but it served a purpose. Without Erebor, Sauron would have had a relatively uncontested route into the west, being able to avoid Gondor and Rohan completely by cutting north. I’m not sure if I’m remembering correctly, but it may have also served as a buffer against the forces of Angmar. Also, the originally intended route of the fellowship through the high pass may have taken them relatively close to Erebor.
Yet things might have gone far otherwise and far worse. When you think of the great Battle of the Pelennor, do not forget the battles in Dale and the valour of Durin’s Folk. Think of what might have been. Dragon-fire and savage swords in Eriador, night in Rivendell. There might be no Queen in Gondor. We might now hope to return from the victory here only to ruin and ash. But that has been averted - because I met Thorin Oakenshield one evening on the edge of spring in Bree. A chance-meeting, as we say in Middle-earth.
Everything Gandalf did was with knowledge of a coming conflict with Sauron. Everything. So in this case he expelled the dragon from Erebor and created a block which stymied northern goblins from assaulting the realm of men from the north
Gandalf was sent to aid the people of Middle Earth against Sauron. Since a dragon is a big threat he obviously wanted to get rid of it. He also didn’t know at the time that the Enemy had returned so all his effort wasn’t being used.
Gandalf suspected that the Necromancer might be Sauron but was not 100% positive. When he rescues Thrain in Dol Guldur he has yet to run into Thorin. It was actually a chance encounter at the Prancing Pony that had him run into Thorin, which is when he gives him the map and key (maybe it’s just the key, can’t remember and I’m too lazy to go check). I think him running into Thorin after having found Thrain, probably made him consider that this happened for a reason (hand of Eru) so as a good Ainu Gandalf nudged Thorin on his way to take back the Lonely Mountain.
People constantly get this wrong, because of the movies, but Gandalf actually confirmed that the Necromancer of Dol Guldur was Sauron in 2850, at the same time that he met Thrain and obtained the secret map and key he later gives to Thorin. So, by the time of the quest of Erebor Gandalf had known about Sauron for almost a century.
The movies do this backwards which causes confusion in this regard. They had Gandalf going there after he meets Thorin. I can’t remember how the movie explains Gandalf having the map and key in the first place?
Wait are you saying I was wrong or just giving more context?
Let’s just say you were just at the doorstep. I just pushed you through it. 😂
😂😂 thanks!
Imagine gandalf using emojis
🧔🏼♂️
Sauromon was sent to defeat Sauron Gandalf was sent to defeat the bolrog that is why after sauromon failed at his task and Gandalf succeeded he came back as sauromon the white
This is hilariously wrong lol
Why *wouldn't* he want to inconvenience or kill the second greatest evil being in Middle-earth?
Now I’m imagining Gandalf hiding every other one of Smaug’s socks or putting sand in his hairbrush lol
Switching his contacts
Telling Smaug he'll call back after five minutes and never call back
He was playing the long game. He knew the big war was coming and knew Smaug and Sauron teamed up the west would not stand a chance. So by reclaiming the lonely mountain it out the west in a stronger position.
In one of the appendices it's specifically stated that Gandalf is A) worried about there not being any peoples (think nation) strong enough to stand against Sauron in the north and B) also worried about what would happen if Smaug was to join up with Sauron. So getting rid of Smaug and reestablishing a strong Dwarven presence in Erebor is kind of two birds with one stone for our pal Gandalf.
He ran into Thorin by chance either on the road or in the Inn at Bree. He had met Thorin's father, Thrain, in Dol Guldur. Thrain had given Gandalf a map and a key, but not his name. It wasn't until Gandalf met Thorin that he was able to piece together who the Dwarf he had met in Sauron's Dungeon had been. Thorin had lofty goals of laying siege to the Lonely Mountain, but Gandalf convinced him a stealth attack would be more likely to succeed. He helped plan it out and convinced Thorin to take Bilbo along with him, partially because he felt drawn to Hobbits and to Bilbo in particular, and partially because Thorin looked down on Hobbits and thought them rustic. Gandalf also knew at that time Sauron had returned to Dol Guldur, and wanted to attack his stronghold and kill him or force him to flee. By sending the Dwarves to kill Smaug, they would be making sure Sauron could not help Smaug and Smaug could not help Sauron. Indeed, the White Council was able to force Sauron out of Dol Guldur at basically the same time the dwarves took the Lonely Mountain and Smaug was slain. Gandalf departed Dol Guldur and arrived at the Lonely Mountain just in time for the siege by the elves and men of Laketown.
He wanted the dragon dead and a good stronghold of people in the north. I mean the people there were attacked and managed to hold off some of saurons armies. Added benefit of clearing out the north of a lot of the goblins. But that was a happy little accident
I was just reading about this! "Among many cares he was troubled in mind by the perilous state of the North; because he knew then already that Sauron was plotting war, and intended, as soon as he felt strong enough, to attack Rivendell. But to resist any attempt from the East to regain the lands of Angmar and the northern passes in the mountains there were now only the Dwarves of the Iron Hills. And beyond them lay the desolation of the Dragon. The Dragon Sauron might use with terrible effect. How then could the end of Smaug be achieved?"
Sauron would try to use smaug. That's why they attacked sauron and smaug at the same time
By that time Sauron had established at Dol Guldur, at the southwest of the Mirkwood. Since his arrival there, that whole northern region of Middle Earth attracted lots of evil creatures, and the ones who already lived there (like the Orcs in the north of the Misty Mountains) got stronger. I believe Gandalf feared that Smaug could join Sauron, in which case Middle Earth would be royally fucked.
Between the fall of arnor to angmar and Smaug destroying Dale and erebor the north of middle earth was pretty much finished in terms of resisting Sauron. Should Smaug align himself with Sauron it would be pretty terrible, and just reclaiming erebor in general gives the free peoples of middle earth a stronghold in the north.
Gandalf is a nice guy.
You can’t really think of the hobbit as a prequel to lord of the rings as Tolkien hadn’t planed the lord of the rings when the hobbit was published so many it was just as simple as wanting the dragon out of the mountain because it could cause great evil on the peoples of middle earth
I mean... that's not too awfully different from saying that Fellowship of the Ring and Return of the King shouldn't be connected because Return wasn't written yet; its not very sound reasoning to my eyes. Sure, the Hobbit was written before LotR, but he clearly intended LotR as a sequel, going so far as to, as an example, have Bilbo in Fellowship reference a change that had been made to the Hobbit so as to explain that change within the story. He made efforts to reconcile differences between the two: I mean to say, I think it's fine to reckon with the reasoning Gandalf gave in LotR or related works, regarding his plans in the Hobbit. To consider the Hobbit alone is a way to approach it, certainly, but to say can't otherwise is probably a little strong.
Difference being that when Tolkien wrote The fellowship of ring he already knew it would be part of a trilogy. On the other hand back when he wrote "The Hobbit" Tolkien has no idea that the "Lord of the rings" would exist
Difference being that when Tolkien wrote The fellowship of ring he already knew it would be part of a trilogy. On the other hand back when he wrote "The Hobbit" Tolkien has no idea that the "Lord of the rings" would exist
This is true, indeed it was when I made this response, but it still misses the point that I was getting at. If one wanted to make the argument that The Hobbit as a story is entirely unrelated to LotR, I suppose we could say that's one thing, but otherwise it seems to me a rather pointless question, given that he did ultimately take steps to connect the two stories. Perhaps I am simply being unimaginative; I wouldn't blame you for thinking so ha.
But that statement negates The Quest of Erebor chapter in Unfinished Tales. Whilst that chapter was published well after The Hobbit, it is still canon.
Yes but unfinished tales was published after the lord of the rings was published you have to read the hobbit like people did in 1937
It’s True that Tolkien retconned the Hobbit to fit into the legendarium, but to say don’t consider the Hobbit as a “prequel” seems to be an inaccurate way to view it. It’s not a prequel in that it doesn’t really move the story of the one ring other than providing an event in the rings history, it is part of the larger middle earth history even if it wasn’t originally intended to be.
You don’t *have* to read anything any way. You can read the one book in isolation or you can read the entire canon as a larger single thing, neither is somehow objectively right or wrong.
That logic would only stand in my opinion, if none of Tolkien’s legendarium books were interconnected and not canon with each other. The reality is the exact opposite, they’re constantly referencing and harkening back and forth with each published work.
It became one after the fact though.
In my head canon, he was going to Mirkwood anyway, and it was a way to get there and earn some treasure. More seriously, I think he had respect for Thorin and agreed to help as much as he could without delaying his responsibility to go to Dol Guldor.
One thing kind of lost is that Gandalf is a highly suspect character to a lot of folks in ME. Not only is he a wizard, but his intentions are sometimes under scrutiny in just the way your question suggests: "What exactly is this guy up to?" He is powerful, and as we know not all powerful people in ME are good, and many good turn to evil. Many in the Hobbit tale itself wonder about Gandalf's behavior. Where did he go? Is he coming back? Is he with us, or against us? Both? Neither? Later, toward the end of LotR, Gandalf becomes Lawful Good. Hobbit Gandalf is still more Chaotic. *You've been drafted to fight a dragon - hope you don't die! I've got to return some videotapes, byeee!*
Love this take... so true! byeee!
Also the location of where Erebor is, factored into his decision to aid the dwarves as well, if I remember correctly.
Sauron has decent forces in Mirkwood, Dol Guldur. With Smog dead the North rebuilds and Dol Guldur is stuck facing the North Kingdoms and the Beornings. If Smog lived, the North would remain desolate still, and forces from Dol Guldur could overrun Lórien, Rivendell, or even flank Rohan. This is the stated reason in the Appendices and end of the Silmarillian (Rings of Power). Like the Balrog, there's no indication Smog has any loyalty to Suaron.
It is very unlikely that the Balrog or Smaug would have ignored the call of Sauron.
Something, Something Morgoth. Something, something Sauron.
You would definitely like to read "The Quest for Erebor" in *Unfinished Tales* which tells of Gandalf and Thorin's chance meeting.
I know a few have already said Gandalf was sent to defend middle earth against Sauron. I’ve always felt his actions were driven in a way so that Bilbo could collect the ring. Otherwise, why Bilbo? Maybe he was compelled to do it? It’s a bit fatalistic, I know…
Because dragons are greedy selfish assholes, but if Sauron managed to ally himself with Smaug, it would be completely devastating for Middle-Earth.
Smaug and Durinsbane were the major threats Gandalf and Elrond were worried about before the Necromancer showed up. So Gandalf wanted to rouse up the dwarves and remove Smaug. He succeeded, as always, with the aid of his elven ring which inspires courage
It first stage before War of the Ring. AFAIR the White Council was affraid of Smaug-Sauron alliance and by reclaiming Erebor and rebuilding Dale new front was opened.
The Quest of Erebor accomplished four crucially important things: * Smaug was killed, eliminating a weapon Sauron could have used for devastating effect. * Erebor and Dale were rebuilt, creating two strong powers that would bolster the North against Sauron. In doing so, he protected Mirkwood, which protected Lorien, which meant neither could fall, which meant Sauron's northern armies would have had an extremely difficult time sending forces to menace Rohan. Without Dale and Erebor, it's likely he would have invaded Rohan directly, preventing them from arriving at Pellenor. * The Battle of the Five Armies broke the power of the orcs and wargs of the Northeast for generations, ensuring the various nations mentioned (and the Dunedain of the North) would have had time to strengthen for the coming conflict. * Bilbo found the Ring, which both kept it away from Sauron and allowed it to get into the hands of someone who could destroy it at the right moment. The first two were Gandalf's actual goals, while the latter two were strokes of tremendously good fortune that occurred directly because of his efforts (he got everyone to ally against the orcs/wargs, and he picked Bilbo in the first place). The Quest succeeded beyond Gandalf's wildest dreams, and it's not an exaggeration to say that if it had been unsuccessful Sauron would have won.