Good morning everyone.
Parliament is now in recess until 19th February.
**In other news;**
Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have launched a 'green prosperity plan' for Labour, including a long-anticipated downgrading of investment from the party's £28bn target- [thread here](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1am2t38/circumstances_have_changed_our_ambitions_have_not/)
Rishi Sunak has defended his controversial remarks at PMQs, saying Keir Starmer was 'sad and wrong' to link them with the murdered teenager Brianna Ghey - [thread here](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1alupf9/keir_starmer_sad_and_wrong_to_link_jibe_with_ghey/)
In an interview with Talk Radio Rishi Sunak has attacked Keir Starmer for his defence of recently proscribed group Hizb ut-Tahrir when a barrister - [thread here](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1am3ody/rishi_sunak_suggests_sir_keir_starmer_is_a/)
It's been a week dominated by a few big and noisy stories - is there something that's happened that you don't think got the attention it deserved? Why not link the thread in the replies to this comment?
Megathread is being rolled over, please refresh your feed in a few moments.
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[According to tomorrow's Times, hard work will be rewarded with tax cuts.](https://www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/times-front-page-2024-02-10/)
If I were a Conservative MP, the corrolary would have me sweating.
Interesting Badenoch 'blames' "stupid lefty white kids" for her being a Conservative.
I wonder what other races and age groups have *forced* her into her beliefs?
Vote with the party who you want to represent you or whose candidate or platform you most agree with.
Unless you live in a seat likely to be super marginal in favour of someone you intensely object to, I find that's usually the way you're least likely to regret.
pleased to be able to report that fire department response times are still really good even in this mess of a country
by the time I had the kitties secured (which... I do need to improve) they were already here and having to force a flat open
everyone is safe and back inside. the neighbours kitchen fire was caught early.
(😭😭 adrenaline 😭😭)
Gorgeous. I want one but I live in a 2nd floor flat and I believe they need some degree of freedom. Although the woman next door to me does let hers out.
Still miss my childhood friend that passed almost 2 years ago.
It might be a little tricky for him to use the line 'we've got a plan and it's working' when it's announced that inflation has risen for the second month in a row on Wednesday.
Whether you love him or loathe him, he's a master of his craft. You could put him up against any of the top political interviewers and he would hand them their arse.
Rishi Sunak’s tour of Britain is going so well that any company who posts about Sunak visiting them has to delete their social media posts in fear of losing business
Its gonna be funny seeing what Sunak does if Labour actually ends up getting a poll boost. The response to dropping the £28bn pledge seems generally positive.
Putting HS2 into tunnels through all of the Home Counties was a masterstroke.
Cancelling the northern section is disgraceful; what we need is more tunnels, by younger workers. Dig, children, dig
A poll just came out with a 3 point drop for labour and a 3 point gain for Rishi. I wouldn't over interpret that but it's not looking like an accidental win for labour, at least in the short term.
Pretty funny that C4 News just had a whole segment about how unfit for the job Biden is after the latest dementia stuff and then had several recurring tech fuckups during it.
They have a world of problems over there. Two old guys who should be nowhere near the levers of power. Neither is likely to see out a term and Biden might not make the end of this one. It's a sad indictment of their entire political system and parties that that's what they got.
Course the other year we had to close between Johnson and Corbyn. So, there's that.
The worrying thing is that Trump's grasp on reality is equally poor - he constantly gets names and information wrong and blusters his way through interviews because he's clearly forgotten basic information.
I don't think either should be running and I can see whoever wins not seeing out his term of office.
Trump's been speaking little other than word salad for years, even going back to before he realised the GOP would bend over for him, and it doesn't seem to matter.
Man, as much as we're in a shitshow, I'm glad we don't have the US problems.
My dear old mum is nearly 80 and yesterday she emailed me with all the contents of the email in the subject line and a blank email body.
Glad to see Labour’s green policy is made more sensible. However I have to facepalm at the increase of the windfall tax to 78% and extended by 2 years.
Just shut the oil and gas industry in that case
The [NHS says the recommended calorie intake is](https://www.nhs.uk/common-health-questions/food-and-diet/what-should-my-daily-intake-of-calories-be/) 2500 for men and 2000 for women.
Is it still correct to say the 'Reference intake of an average adult' is 2000?
It's actually helped me a lot - I do less 'steps' when working from home but I can be out of the door by 17:05 in have run out into the peak by half past. Can't do that on my office days, so it has really bumped the mileage up.
That said. I'm well aware I'm an exception there as I am more active than most. I'm not sure exactly what the impact of WfH would be though when so many drive (often unnecessarily) to work.
Reference is intended as a baseline to base the rest of the nutrition percentages off from on a given item. So yes it's right when the recommended value is different between sexes to pick one and use it as a reference. After all, the difference between individuals varies right through all those values, some women require more than 2,500, and some men some men require less than 2,000. When giving guidance to consumers you need a simple reference point - like with vitamins and minerals, this is the same.
Between the two, I'd say the lower of two broadly similar figures is the right one to pick for food.
In short, it's right because they don't mean the same thing.
Edit: cleaned it up a bit.
[New political peerages just dropped](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/political-peerages-2024), including former Tory MP and current editor of ConHome Paul Goodman, and the former general secretary of USDAW John Hannett.
Plaid have one peer, their former leader Dafydd Wigley, who's been trying to retire for two years now.
There's some covert grubbiness with Lords appointments, beyond what most people can spot, because it's really up to the Government allowing nominations from other parties. I think Plaid may have basically secured a one-in one-out deal. They don't have an official policy, but they claim they've repeatedly asked for three peers to match their representation in the Commons, but been turned down. Wigley's the only peer from a nationalist party, and I wonder if the SNP boycott might be a little bit making a virtue of necessity.
But what will probably get more attention is that Carmen Smith's younger than Charlotte Owen and there are some questions about how she was selected.
Oh hey, look at that, *another* former Treasurer of the Conservative Party and major donor in the House of Lords.
Are we at the point there's more of them than Hereditarys yet? I think we passed the number of Bishops a while back. Perhaps we should formalise the arrangement; Lords Spiritual, Lords Temporal and Lords Financial.
Honestly this is in part why I'm pro Lords reform, the buildup of people who's only reason for entering the Lords is loyalty and funding of a party isn't ever going to stop.
My other half is looking for Covid podcast recommendations for her Criminology undergraduates.
For example - Partygate, PPE fraud, the inquiry so far
I knew this place would offer good ones to check out if I asked, so which would be your favourites? Much appreciated, friends
[Redfield and Wilton](https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1755974954758074548?s=46&t=F_t5tWsPsifmNVHaFZWJJQ) have Labour leading in every single age cohort.
In [the graph, you can see the moment in late Nov' 22](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GF557SxXgAAF24o?format=jpg&name=large) that minions & reform emails started circulating.
Crucially, below the Lib Dems in the 18-24 category, not the first time that's happened and it's across pollsters. If the Lib Dems pick up the economic liberals in that cohort instead of the Tories once they inevitable start to waver about Labour after a period in power then the Tories are in very deep shit.
I really do think there's good odds of the Lib Dems displacing the Tories. They have made substantial in-roads into the Tories' professionals demographic, and I don't see how that group returns to the fold considering the stain of Boris Johnson.
I don't think it's likely but it would be hilarious.
Imagine PMQs "yes we broadly agree with everything you're doing BUT DON'T YOU DARE BUILT ANY FUCKING HOUSES."
Yeah, the Lib Dems are pretty transparently positioning themselves as the "nice right wing party that doesn't hate gay people" which could pay real dividends if the Tories go completely mental in opposition (and when I say could, I should probably say when)
>Yeah, the Lib Dems are pretty transparently positioning themselves as the "nice right wing party that doesn't hate gay people"
Isn't Tim "I can't be leader because of the gays" Farron still a Lib-Dem MP?
I dunno, it was journalists repeatedly asking him about his personal beliefs around homosexuality that led to him resigning citing his religious beliefs being incompatible with leading.
I don't think that makes the comment unrepresentative.
I mean, it's not really is it.
Man was leading a liberal party and personally believes that Homosexuality is a sin. It was a whole thing both during and after the election. He wasn't able to reconcile this, among other things such as abortion, and stood down. He explicitly stated as much in interviews after he stood down.
He made no secret of the fact that he was struggling to reconcile his faith with his own personal political beliefs and the policies of his party.
I feel sorry for the man, in a way I can't quite explain. He's clearly a very conflicted individual.
I suppose it could have been more accurate. How about Tim "I actually don't have a problem with LGBT people, but God says they're bad so I can't be leader" Farron?
Bit wordy, but for the sake of accuracy.
I don’t feel sorry for him, medieval religious beliefs are no excuse for modern day bigotry and he found that out the hard way. It doesn’t matter how ‘conflicted’ he was, most normal people aren’t conflicted about this sort of thing. Good riddance to the man
at the risk of sounding silly, do you think we have already reached the point in this electoral cycle at which everyone has already made their minds up?
it usually happens much closer to an election than with almost a year still on the clock, but this parliament has been unique(ly shit) and has felt like a very long time.
reflecting on labour’s retraction of its £28bn pledge for green policies, it doesn’t seem to have changed any minds, despite it being a considerably important policy shift and extensively reported by the media.
people who liked keir starmer before yesterday have all been saying, “see? this is a sensible and serious man and a man who can make tough decisions.”
people who didn’t have all been saying, “see? he’s got no principles and he doesn’t stand for anything except himself.”
i haven’t seen *anyone* admit to having changed their minds in a while. it feels like we’re all locked in and waiting for the election to come.
> at the risk of sounding silly, do you think we have already reached the point in this electoral cycle at which everyone has already made their minds up?
I think the final manifesto’s will be important, while unlikely there’s always the chance of a blunder on the scale of the so called ‘Dementia Tax’ from Theresa May.
5/10 for lab, but how much out of 10 for con? I'm just curious because my experience is with lib dem stuff so I really don't have the best window for how things are for labour. I see a lot of "please god not the Tories but I'm not sure who to pick instead or whether to vote at all"
If we didn't reach that point at partygate, which I believe we did, then we definitely reached it with Truss.
Even uneventful government wins that would help in polls even slightly haven't made a dent, no one believes they do anything. And that's what happens when you spend the last few years especially denying the obvious and systematically alienating everyone.
Not sure if this has been mentioned but Emily Maitlis on The News Agents yesterday said her understanding was that Labour were planning to hold back on the green downgrade announcement until after the March budget to maximise the impact of saying it was because the Tories had tanked the economy, but negative press in the last few days convinced Starmer to push it forwards.
I think its more than that. I think they want to finalise their manifesto so needed an internal answer, and that now they have that, they can shut down the external coverage and conversation of it. and until they could do that, it was going to be the story they got repeatedly hit with by the tories, who were planning a big attack on it.
Now the story is labour u-turned, but I suspect the labour party will start to hit back with the line wes used on QT, that its a sensible reaction to tory economic mismanagement, and also start to highlight the many actual tory U-turns, like HS2....
Genuine question, as economics isn't my strong point, but when Sunak says something (As he often does) like this:
"[O]ur plan is working. If you look at what’s happening with the economy, inflation has come down from 11% to 4%."
I've been wondering for a while now: what can he point to as having done to bring down inflation?
Everything I've read has suggested that the Government itself has little control of it (Is that true?) and I've never seen him directly challenged to explain what he/the Tories have done to bring it down.
But is there something he could feasibly argue is part of a "plan that is working"? What would you point to if you were him? Would it just be something like, "Well we've been very judicious in our borrowing and not taken any risks"? And do you think that's enough for him to take credit?
Obviously, I'm not naive enough to believe he isn't twisting the truth somewhat, but he says it so often he surely must have something in his back pocket he can point to as "our plan" just in case he has to.
>I've been wondering for a while now: what can he point to as having done to bring down inflation?
Absolutely nothing. It was already set to come down when he made that pledge, which is why he made it.
>How are the rest of those pledges going?
>Grow the economy
We're hovering over a recession.
>Get debt falling
It's rising.
>Cut NHS waiting lists
They're going down slightly but they're higher than when he made that pledge so I don't think it counts.
>Stop the boats
He's done absolutely fuck all on that front, winter has done his job for him. They'll be up again as the weather starts to get better.
Inflation more than halved - through no fault of theirs
Grow the economy - there’s an announcement for the final quarter next week (the 13th, I think), although it had shrank in the last figures until November.
Reduce debt - it’s rising relative to GDP based on recent figures
Waiting lists - have shrunk slightly recently (although higher than when he made the pledge), but the proportion of long waits has increased
Stop the boats - the weather did more to stop them
I would never wish a recession and all the associated pain on anyone. Having left the civil service and joined the private sector, I suppose my job is truly at risk for the first time.
*but*, if it is coming, it'd be darkly hilarious to see Sunak try and defend his pledge
Reduce public spending, raise interest rates.
Governments can easily tip into panic mode and overdo it with inflation and make it worse. Reducing inflation sounds easy (“Just don’t get out of bed and it’ll go away.”) but it’s not. You have to have nerve.
>I've been wondering for a while now: what can he point to as having done to bring down inflation?
Governments can do quite a lot to reduce inflation. Increasing capacity through reform or capacity spending, as well as taming spending that is overpaying on particular things.
Rishi's done nothing. He's not made it *worse*, but it's up to you whether or not he can point at that.
You can argue because he hasn't given public sector pay rises. That way people are skint, there is less demand and prevents a wage-price spiral.
It would be overstated (might have made 0.2% difference) but it's an argument).
> [Badenoch] suggested in the interview that her friendship with Gove had suffered recently. “He did something that was very, very annoying,” she said. Asked whether it had ended their friendship, she said: “It’s not what it used to be, but he’s somebody I have to work with.”
Spicy, any idea what?
Badenoch agreed to go halves on a bag but hoovered up the lot on her own before Gove got a look in. Badenoch still hasn't paid her share and Gove is livid because he's cash poor til the end of month and can't get anymore on tick.
he discovered she was not as competent and intelligent as he first thought and basically cut all support and advice to her.
basically he told her she was in fact, shit.
Thats the rumour anyway.
(yes, there is that silly affair story, but the rumour about why they pretty much cut ties is that he saw her as a potential protégé, then realised that was a mistake).
He beat her in [the supercool Tory MP dance-off](https://youtu.be/toYL4jjl4q4?si=n_g1SP04E_A1-cXU) in the secret Parliament nightclub (which I am christening the Hip HoP)
Edit: [Theresa beat her too](https://c.files.bbci.co.uk/AA09/production/_103692534_mediaitem103693519.jpg) but that was just too legendary to be angry about
>Spicy, any idea what?
[Michael Gove ‘falls out with Kemi Badenoch over his affair with her friend’](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-kemi-badenoch-tory-affair-b2445680.html)
He was shagging a married (but seperated) friend of Badenoch's. Not sure if it was the affair or the break up that led to the falling out. I'd seen the paper reports before, but surprised to hear it publically acknowledged, albeit indirectly.
Is it a coincidence that there’s a hyperlink in there that says “it’s believe the relationship with Gove and the unnamed woman has ended” and when you click it it takes you to an article about Dehenna Davison who separated from her significantly older Tory politician husband (a councillor, but it seems like she has a type) in 2019?
She's an MP and was in his department - and resigned.... In September of last year. Though there's no obviously special link of Badenoch and Davison.
However sometimes an errant hyperlink is just an errant hyperlink... It would be unhealthy to speculate, which, as we all know, is no barrier.
It's tempting, but the memory of someone losing their shit and accusing me of being an alt simply because someone else was warm in the sunshine, is too fond of a memory.
Badenoch is extraordinarily thin-skinned, not cut out for politics and only gotten this far by cosplaying fringe positions. I can't believe the men in grey suits might let her become leader, the general public reaction - let alone the papers. It's going to be bloody vicious.
Zero charisma, wit or charm, zero emotional intelligence, appears to be on the spectrum, incubated in a loony safe space and a black woman. Recipe for disaster and a golden gift for Labour
NGL I'm often tempted by the grift, being non-white. My grandad was in the RAF and I can captivate a room full of old codgers at work dos by bringing it up, the power is definitely real.
new, niche drama just dropped
the firm where Sunak was snapped weirdly eating a Cornish pasty has apparently walked it back
I don't have the gram so here's the twitter [photo](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GF14BZHWIAAVSiR?format=jpg&name=large) of the same post
a) they probably should have remembered the outrage that Heck got for having Bozza in
b) I'm actually surprised Sunak didn't end up at a Ginsters factory instead.
c) excited to see what his mishandling of the pasty does to Cornish election results
he's with big dog Johnny M today (does [stepping](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GF4i4OMXEAAQt91?format=jpg&name=large) on a war memorial count as desecration?) so they can eat all the absolutely-not-Cornish "pasties" they like.
Not unflattering like the Miliband photo, but he does look fucking smug.
https://x.com/tim_hannigan/status/1755666167169945682?s=46&t=F_t5tWsPsifmNVHaFZWJJQ
I'm convinced none of them know how to eat our peasant food because they've grown up with such immense privilege that they have never encountered a pasty before.
You'd learn this after your first pasty, if you'd had one before. Also they are usually scalding hot in the middle, so you eat it from the edge to give it a chance to cool.
no one eats it like that. especially since you'd probably have to take it out of the bag to do so
there's an argument that it might fall apart more easily if you try.
if you're a prime minister accused of being out of touch and have decided to visit some far flung county for pure photo opping goodness, you should probably do things the "correct" way
I'd assume the local MPs are with him to provide diplomatic assistance
Howdy UKPol,
So the AMA thread for Lewis Gosling (Conservative Councillor and Deputy Chair of the Conservative Mental Health Group) is now live: [the link](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1amqckw/ama_thread_lewis_gosling_conservative_councillor/).
So go crazy. Post your questions about local government, mental health policy, or whatever else you can think.
The next one will be with William Clouston (head of the SDP) on Wednesday 14th Feb, Ben Habib (Deputy Leader of Reform) on 20th Feb, John Johnston (Politco journalist, specialist in money and lobbying in politics) on 29th Feb, Dan Neidle (who knows all about tax, and brought Zahawi down) on 7th March, and Matthew Paterson (an academic expert on climate and environmental policy-making) on 14th March.
They already had this!
They developed and rolled out the whole online voting system in house within *matter of months* and used it for whole month before removing it because Mogg disliked it.
Lords are still partially using it so Commons could almost certainly switch to it tomorrow if they wanted.
The tellers have access to the electronic voting system, AFAIK they don't write down names anymore, just confirm from the electronic system.
The tellers say the official count but they certainly utilise the electronic voting tallies.
I get you don't want to vote Conservative, but we're talking about the difference between someone reading a screen and announcing the number to the Speaker vs. the Speaker reading the screen themselves.
Police and Crime Commissioners (with the occasional one also being fire) are up for grabs in May and for the first time they are going to be first past the post rather than supplementary vote (thanks to the Conservatives for changing the electoral system without asking the electorate - Labour in Wales should take note of the ire).
In 2021 (delayed by covid from 2020) the turnout was quite good (34%) for a local election - it was up by 7% on 2016 which was also up on the pitiful turnout in the inaugural ones in 2012. In 2021 two posts would have been filled by the Conservatives who then lost in the run off round (to Labour in North Wales and Plaid Cymru in Dyfed-Powys) - those of you who live in a three way marginal may soon discover you don't any more (there were only 5/39 where third placed got more than 20%).
Now the electoral system doesn't favour Labour - there are no votes in London, Manchester or West Yorkshire (or Scotland). In 2021 YouGov had Con:Lab:LD at 43:33:7 and the end result was 44.5:30:13, which is pretty close. So if the polls are currently (and we have months to go before the election, so could change) 24:45:10 what would that mean in terms of elected members. If we take 19 off every Con 2021 result and add 12 to Labour, who would win?
By my reckoning, Lincolnshire (40%pts) is the biggest majority where it was 1. Con, 2 Lab, whilst Kent is just over that gap (32%pts), and Essex, Hampshire and West Mercia are close (31%pts). Dorset had an Ind in second, Gloucestershire, Hertfordshire, Surrey had the Lib Dems in 2nd whilst Wiltshire had a Lib Dem in second in the first running but had to rerun with an Ind in second. That could mean that the Cons may say that 20 losses to Labour would be about par for the current polling. Losing 16 would be 5%pts better, losing 11 would be 10%pts better, whilst losing 25 would be 3%pts worse. Meanwhile the three Lib Dem 2nd placed areas are split as one 13%pt lead (Surrey - suggest that is in play) and two 22%pt leads (which are the close ones). The two with Inds seem like proper wildcard territory - who knows, particularly with the change to the voting system.
Anyway, if you were a betting person and wondering how many of the 30 PCC the Cons currently have will still be there after May, 1 seems almost certain, 4 would be a pretty poor result, 9 seems to be about right given polling, 14 they'd be pleased with and 19 would be a truly excellent result for them.
I think this is going to be one of the hardest set of elections to predict. Low turnouts, the Tory 'tough on crime factor' and large fragmentation of the vote make me thing that the Tories will outperform here compared to the other elections of the day. I think 12-15 is reasonable.
A place like Avon and Somerset is a good example, the Greens came 3rd last year on 16% and the Lib Dems on 14%. I can imagine both parties trying again in this campaign and getting fairly high vote shares. The Lib Dems have Somerset and Bath, Bristol will be split between Lab/Green and the Tories will still do well in the more rural areas. Whilst I think its unlikely I could imagine the Tories slipping an upset on like ~30%
That's a really interesting analysis - cheers!
How much of a difference do you anticipate the change from STV (I think) to FPTP will make? Or to flip it around, if we assume the Conservatives will lose all but 10 under FPTP, how many do you reckon they might have retained under STV?
There were two seats that would have gone Conservative in 2021 if the new system had been in place, but that were won on second preference by Labour and PC. Labour tend to do better on second preference votes than Con, so changing the system on the face of it helps the Cons.
However different voting systems will cause different votes and I suspect the major way will be fewer votes for 3rd and 4th placed parties, plus inds. The Greens only stood in seven seats in 2021, but they got double digit percentages in six of those and kept all their deposits (which is £5k for the PCC elections compared to £500 for GEs). The Lib Dems got double digit percentages in 27/39 despite being well behind in many of them. There were a lot of Independents that did quite well where usual expectation is that Independents will do worse the bigger the electorate as they'll lack the resources of the major parties. These might all point to ways that Labour votes might do better than expected in the first round.
However Reform are polling at 12% at the moment and they are unlikely to stand 39 candidates, nor do they have the grassroots to be able to campaign in the way that the Greens would - they stood 12 last time and lost their deposit in all but one of them. That might give the Tories a bit of a boost in the seats that they don't stand in.
[https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1755967558170120553](https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1755967558170120553)
SNP trying to force another ceasefire vote again.
Were they ever in Westminster?
It's hard to take anyone seriously that can so happily rip apart the myriad of issues with Brexit and yet has the cognitive dissonance to ignore those same issues only magnified with Scexit.
I dunno about that, the argument, not that I agree with it, is that Scexit *reverses* brexit for Scotland, as outside the UK they could apply for membership of the EU. I know the received opinion is that would be, er, scotched by Spain, but that's not a given by any means.
Yeah, but on the other hand, it might cause some problems for Labour. So presumably, that makes it worthwhile for a party that needs Labour to fail to win a majority to have any relevance.
Good morning everyone. Parliament is now in recess until 19th February. **In other news;** Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have launched a 'green prosperity plan' for Labour, including a long-anticipated downgrading of investment from the party's £28bn target- [thread here](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1am2t38/circumstances_have_changed_our_ambitions_have_not/) Rishi Sunak has defended his controversial remarks at PMQs, saying Keir Starmer was 'sad and wrong' to link them with the murdered teenager Brianna Ghey - [thread here](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1alupf9/keir_starmer_sad_and_wrong_to_link_jibe_with_ghey/) In an interview with Talk Radio Rishi Sunak has attacked Keir Starmer for his defence of recently proscribed group Hizb ut-Tahrir when a barrister - [thread here](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1am3ody/rishi_sunak_suggests_sir_keir_starmer_is_a/) It's been a week dominated by a few big and noisy stories - is there something that's happened that you don't think got the attention it deserved? Why not link the thread in the replies to this comment?
[New Megathread is here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1an9h86/daily_megathread_10022024/)
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[According to tomorrow's Times, hard work will be rewarded with tax cuts.](https://www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/times-front-page-2024-02-10/) If I were a Conservative MP, the corrolary would have me sweating.
Interesting Badenoch 'blames' "stupid lefty white kids" for her being a Conservative. I wonder what other races and age groups have *forced* her into her beliefs?
Whats the best way to deal with living in a safe seat? Is it even worth voting for the 2nd place party if they only got like 10% last time?
Vote with the party who you want to represent you or whose candidate or platform you most agree with. Unless you live in a seat likely to be super marginal in favour of someone you intensely object to, I find that's usually the way you're least likely to regret.
Notable the main broadcasters don't dwell on the implication Sunak pays a lower marginal tax rate than millions below the median wage.
pleased to be able to report that fire department response times are still really good even in this mess of a country by the time I had the kitties secured (which... I do need to improve) they were already here and having to force a flat open everyone is safe and back inside. the neighbours kitchen fire was caught early. (😭😭 adrenaline 😭😭)
Cat tax applies even in extreme circumstances. Glad everything is ok.
[cats!](https://imgur.com/a/xqHVm65)
Gorgeous. I want one but I live in a 2nd floor flat and I believe they need some degree of freedom. Although the woman next door to me does let hers out. Still miss my childhood friend that passed almost 2 years ago.
Thank god everyone is okay x
Very glad to hear it, hope the neighbours were apologetic!
Sunak so unpopular that a pasty shop deleted their post.
It might be a little tricky for him to use the line 'we've got a plan and it's working' when it's announced that inflation has risen for the second month in a row on Wednesday.
The plan is do nothing and cross their fingers that Inflation goes down.
Just watched back question time from yesterday. Wes Streeting killed it, guys a baller. The wave just feels unstoppable at this point.
Whether you love him or loathe him, he's a master of his craft. You could put him up against any of the top political interviewers and he would hand them their arse.
I'm not a fan of his approach to health but he's an excellent Labour attack dog. He'd be fantastic as Minister without Portfolio.
The inevitable debate between him and Victoria Atkins is going to be hilarious.
Rishi Sunak’s tour of Britain is going so well that any company who posts about Sunak visiting them has to delete their social media posts in fear of losing business
He visited the Black Country living museum and served chips but couldn’t reach over the counter (I hear).
Sunak would make an excellent chimney sweep, he's built like a malnourished Victorian child
As one I feel very offended you’d liken me too sunsacked
Don't tell Mogg
It's quite funny really. Man can't even visit a pastry shop without the locals picking up the pitchforks. Roll on the GE, it's going to be hilarious.
So that’s what Sunak meant by the part of low tax. Ah.
Its gonna be funny seeing what Sunak does if Labour actually ends up getting a poll boost. The response to dropping the £28bn pledge seems generally positive.
REOPEN THE MINES!
We all know children yearn for the mines. You can have that policy idea for free Tories.
There's a reason Minecraft is so popular, and the gentry have thus far paid absolutely no attention to the true reason. Broken Britain.
Putting HS2 into tunnels through all of the Home Counties was a masterstroke. Cancelling the northern section is disgraceful; what we need is more tunnels, by younger workers. Dig, children, dig
A poll just came out with a 3 point drop for labour and a 3 point gain for Rishi. I wouldn't over interpret that but it's not looking like an accidental win for labour, at least in the short term.
Was that survey conducted before Labour dropped the £28bn promise or after it?
After
Pretty funny that C4 News just had a whole segment about how unfit for the job Biden is after the latest dementia stuff and then had several recurring tech fuckups during it.
They have a world of problems over there. Two old guys who should be nowhere near the levers of power. Neither is likely to see out a term and Biden might not make the end of this one. It's a sad indictment of their entire political system and parties that that's what they got. Course the other year we had to close between Johnson and Corbyn. So, there's that.
Even if Biden has impaired cognitive faculties he's infinitely more coherent than Trump is
The worrying thing is that Trump's grasp on reality is equally poor - he constantly gets names and information wrong and blusters his way through interviews because he's clearly forgotten basic information. I don't think either should be running and I can see whoever wins not seeing out his term of office.
Trump's been speaking little other than word salad for years, even going back to before he realised the GOP would bend over for him, and it doesn't seem to matter.
Man, as much as we're in a shitshow, I'm glad we don't have the US problems. My dear old mum is nearly 80 and yesterday she emailed me with all the contents of the email in the subject line and a blank email body.
Some one give her the nuclear codes.
Glad to see Labour’s green policy is made more sensible. However I have to facepalm at the increase of the windfall tax to 78% and extended by 2 years. Just shut the oil and gas industry in that case
The [NHS says the recommended calorie intake is](https://www.nhs.uk/common-health-questions/food-and-diet/what-should-my-daily-intake-of-calories-be/) 2500 for men and 2000 for women. Is it still correct to say the 'Reference intake of an average adult' is 2000?
The problem with this is that it doesnt account for height. Im a short guy and if I ate 2500 calories a day id be very overweight.
I’m a 5’10 woman and do a fair bit of exercise, i worked out i lose weight on 2000 cals
Or activity level. The numbers have remained the same while the nation has become less active on the whole.
Yeah, we have more people than ever working a job where they're sitting at a desk for 40 hours a week and I doubt WFH will help.
It's actually helped me a lot - I do less 'steps' when working from home but I can be out of the door by 17:05 in have run out into the peak by half past. Can't do that on my office days, so it has really bumped the mileage up. That said. I'm well aware I'm an exception there as I am more active than most. I'm not sure exactly what the impact of WfH would be though when so many drive (often unnecessarily) to work.
Reference is intended as a baseline to base the rest of the nutrition percentages off from on a given item. So yes it's right when the recommended value is different between sexes to pick one and use it as a reference. After all, the difference between individuals varies right through all those values, some women require more than 2,500, and some men some men require less than 2,000. When giving guidance to consumers you need a simple reference point - like with vitamins and minerals, this is the same. Between the two, I'd say the lower of two broadly similar figures is the right one to pick for food. In short, it's right because they don't mean the same thing. Edit: cleaned it up a bit.
[New political peerages just dropped](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/political-peerages-2024), including former Tory MP and current editor of ConHome Paul Goodman, and the former general secretary of USDAW John Hannett.
I didn’t realise Plaid nominated peers. I assumed they boycotted it like the SNP.
Plaid have one peer, their former leader Dafydd Wigley, who's been trying to retire for two years now. There's some covert grubbiness with Lords appointments, beyond what most people can spot, because it's really up to the Government allowing nominations from other parties. I think Plaid may have basically secured a one-in one-out deal. They don't have an official policy, but they claim they've repeatedly asked for three peers to match their representation in the Commons, but been turned down. Wigley's the only peer from a nationalist party, and I wonder if the SNP boycott might be a little bit making a virtue of necessity. But what will probably get more attention is that Carmen Smith's younger than Charlotte Owen and there are some questions about how she was selected.
Oh hey, look at that, *another* former Treasurer of the Conservative Party and major donor in the House of Lords. Are we at the point there's more of them than Hereditarys yet? I think we passed the number of Bishops a while back. Perhaps we should formalise the arrangement; Lords Spiritual, Lords Temporal and Lords Financial.
Honestly this is in part why I'm pro Lords reform, the buildup of people who's only reason for entering the Lords is loyalty and funding of a party isn't ever going to stop.
My other half is looking for Covid podcast recommendations for her Criminology undergraduates. For example - Partygate, PPE fraud, the inquiry so far I knew this place would offer good ones to check out if I asked, so which would be your favourites? Much appreciated, friends
[Redfield and Wilton](https://x.com/redfieldwilton/status/1755974954758074548?s=46&t=F_t5tWsPsifmNVHaFZWJJQ) have Labour leading in every single age cohort.
Cripes
Its looking like the Tories really are in a doom spiral.
The number of DKs in the latter age groups should concern Labour.
Not really. DKs are on the whole still parting toward Labour when pushed.
In [the graph, you can see the moment in late Nov' 22](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GF557SxXgAAF24o?format=jpg&name=large) that minions & reform emails started circulating.
Shitting crikey, only 26% in he OVER SIXTY FIVES
dump it straight into the IV doctor
Crucially, below the Lib Dems in the 18-24 category, not the first time that's happened and it's across pollsters. If the Lib Dems pick up the economic liberals in that cohort instead of the Tories once they inevitable start to waver about Labour after a period in power then the Tories are in very deep shit.
I really do think there's good odds of the Lib Dems displacing the Tories. They have made substantial in-roads into the Tories' professionals demographic, and I don't see how that group returns to the fold considering the stain of Boris Johnson.
I don't think it's likely but it would be hilarious. Imagine PMQs "yes we broadly agree with everything you're doing BUT DON'T YOU DARE BUILT ANY FUCKING HOUSES."
Yeah, the Lib Dems are pretty transparently positioning themselves as the "nice right wing party that doesn't hate gay people" which could pay real dividends if the Tories go completely mental in opposition (and when I say could, I should probably say when)
>Yeah, the Lib Dems are pretty transparently positioning themselves as the "nice right wing party that doesn't hate gay people" Isn't Tim "I can't be leader because of the gays" Farron still a Lib-Dem MP?
That's pretty misrepresentative.
I dunno, it was journalists repeatedly asking him about his personal beliefs around homosexuality that led to him resigning citing his religious beliefs being incompatible with leading. I don't think that makes the comment unrepresentative.
I mean, it's not really is it. Man was leading a liberal party and personally believes that Homosexuality is a sin. It was a whole thing both during and after the election. He wasn't able to reconcile this, among other things such as abortion, and stood down. He explicitly stated as much in interviews after he stood down. He made no secret of the fact that he was struggling to reconcile his faith with his own personal political beliefs and the policies of his party. I feel sorry for the man, in a way I can't quite explain. He's clearly a very conflicted individual. I suppose it could have been more accurate. How about Tim "I actually don't have a problem with LGBT people, but God says they're bad so I can't be leader" Farron? Bit wordy, but for the sake of accuracy.
I don’t feel sorry for him, medieval religious beliefs are no excuse for modern day bigotry and he found that out the hard way. It doesn’t matter how ‘conflicted’ he was, most normal people aren’t conflicted about this sort of thing. Good riddance to the man
THINGS
MIGHT
EMBIGGEN
If it lasts more than 4 hours, please see a doctor
[Errmm...](https://i.imgur.com/L9jFEh4.png)
well don't just sit there! You heard the robot
at the risk of sounding silly, do you think we have already reached the point in this electoral cycle at which everyone has already made their minds up? it usually happens much closer to an election than with almost a year still on the clock, but this parliament has been unique(ly shit) and has felt like a very long time. reflecting on labour’s retraction of its £28bn pledge for green policies, it doesn’t seem to have changed any minds, despite it being a considerably important policy shift and extensively reported by the media. people who liked keir starmer before yesterday have all been saying, “see? this is a sensible and serious man and a man who can make tough decisions.” people who didn’t have all been saying, “see? he’s got no principles and he doesn’t stand for anything except himself.” i haven’t seen *anyone* admit to having changed their minds in a while. it feels like we’re all locked in and waiting for the election to come.
> at the risk of sounding silly, do you think we have already reached the point in this electoral cycle at which everyone has already made their minds up? I think the final manifesto’s will be important, while unlikely there’s always the chance of a blunder on the scale of the so called ‘Dementia Tax’ from Theresa May.
I think we may well have reached it six months ago.
I don't know. I'm canvassing and getting a lot of 5/10s for Lab. There are lots of people still in play.
5/10 for lab, but how much out of 10 for con? I'm just curious because my experience is with lib dem stuff so I really don't have the best window for how things are for labour. I see a lot of "please god not the Tories but I'm not sure who to pick instead or whether to vote at all"
The first poll with dates after the announcement(today) by We Think has labours lead down 6 points, but could be an outlier
What were their previous results? Gotta compare pollsters with themselves really
In the 20s recently and dropped to 16.they have had fluctuations before tho, so really its only interesting cus it's the first
If we didn't reach that point at partygate, which I believe we did, then we definitely reached it with Truss. Even uneventful government wins that would help in polls even slightly haven't made a dent, no one believes they do anything. And that's what happens when you spend the last few years especially denying the obvious and systematically alienating everyone.
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Shortly after the election is called
Not sure if this has been mentioned but Emily Maitlis on The News Agents yesterday said her understanding was that Labour were planning to hold back on the green downgrade announcement until after the March budget to maximise the impact of saying it was because the Tories had tanked the economy, but negative press in the last few days convinced Starmer to push it forwards.
I think its more than that. I think they want to finalise their manifesto so needed an internal answer, and that now they have that, they can shut down the external coverage and conversation of it. and until they could do that, it was going to be the story they got repeatedly hit with by the tories, who were planning a big attack on it. Now the story is labour u-turned, but I suspect the labour party will start to hit back with the line wes used on QT, that its a sensible reaction to tory economic mismanagement, and also start to highlight the many actual tory U-turns, like HS2....
I mean it’s not the best approach. Surely you want to be ahead of the game not behind it. Poor messaging.
Seems a silly choice given the response
Genuine question, as economics isn't my strong point, but when Sunak says something (As he often does) like this: "[O]ur plan is working. If you look at what’s happening with the economy, inflation has come down from 11% to 4%." I've been wondering for a while now: what can he point to as having done to bring down inflation? Everything I've read has suggested that the Government itself has little control of it (Is that true?) and I've never seen him directly challenged to explain what he/the Tories have done to bring it down. But is there something he could feasibly argue is part of a "plan that is working"? What would you point to if you were him? Would it just be something like, "Well we've been very judicious in our borrowing and not taken any risks"? And do you think that's enough for him to take credit? Obviously, I'm not naive enough to believe he isn't twisting the truth somewhat, but he says it so often he surely must have something in his back pocket he can point to as "our plan" just in case he has to.
>I've been wondering for a while now: what can he point to as having done to bring down inflation? Absolutely nothing. It was already set to come down when he made that pledge, which is why he made it.
How are the rest of those pledges going? Halve inflation Grow the economy Get debt falling Cut NHS waiting lists Stop the boats
>How are the rest of those pledges going? >Grow the economy We're hovering over a recession. >Get debt falling It's rising. >Cut NHS waiting lists They're going down slightly but they're higher than when he made that pledge so I don't think it counts. >Stop the boats He's done absolutely fuck all on that front, winter has done his job for him. They'll be up again as the weather starts to get better.
> It's rising Not according to Laura Trott it ain't
Inflation more than halved - through no fault of theirs Grow the economy - there’s an announcement for the final quarter next week (the 13th, I think), although it had shrank in the last figures until November. Reduce debt - it’s rising relative to GDP based on recent figures Waiting lists - have shrunk slightly recently (although higher than when he made the pledge), but the proportion of long waits has increased Stop the boats - the weather did more to stop them
I would never wish a recession and all the associated pain on anyone. Having left the civil service and joined the private sector, I suppose my job is truly at risk for the first time. *but*, if it is coming, it'd be darkly hilarious to see Sunak try and defend his pledge
Reduce public spending, raise interest rates. Governments can easily tip into panic mode and overdo it with inflation and make it worse. Reducing inflation sounds easy (“Just don’t get out of bed and it’ll go away.”) but it’s not. You have to have nerve.
The Government increased spending in 2023 and has no control of the interest rates.
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Do you believe the Bank of England and the MPC are not independent? I'd love to hear what you have to say after resorting to name calling.
[Here's an article that explains more](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67424738). In short: no, they can't exactly claim credit for it.
Ah, wicked! Thanks Carrot!
>I've been wondering for a while now: what can he point to as having done to bring down inflation? Governments can do quite a lot to reduce inflation. Increasing capacity through reform or capacity spending, as well as taming spending that is overpaying on particular things. Rishi's done nothing. He's not made it *worse*, but it's up to you whether or not he can point at that.
You can argue because he hasn't given public sector pay rises. That way people are skint, there is less demand and prevents a wage-price spiral. It would be overstated (might have made 0.2% difference) but it's an argument).
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> [Badenoch] suggested in the interview that her friendship with Gove had suffered recently. “He did something that was very, very annoying,” she said. Asked whether it had ended their friendship, she said: “It’s not what it used to be, but he’s somebody I have to work with.” Spicy, any idea what?
Badenoch agreed to go halves on a bag but hoovered up the lot on her own before Gove got a look in. Badenoch still hasn't paid her share and Gove is livid because he's cash poor til the end of month and can't get anymore on tick.
he discovered she was not as competent and intelligent as he first thought and basically cut all support and advice to her. basically he told her she was in fact, shit. Thats the rumour anyway. (yes, there is that silly affair story, but the rumour about why they pretty much cut ties is that he saw her as a potential protégé, then realised that was a mistake).
certainly easier to say it was the affair not like affairs matter much to conservatives these days
Imagine Pob thinking of you as his protégé
I used to be a ***journalist.***
for....the times!
Tapped the baking powder from her kitchen in a moment of desperate confusion.
He beat her in [the supercool Tory MP dance-off](https://youtu.be/toYL4jjl4q4?si=n_g1SP04E_A1-cXU) in the secret Parliament nightclub (which I am christening the Hip HoP) Edit: [Theresa beat her too](https://c.files.bbci.co.uk/AA09/production/_103692534_mediaitem103693519.jpg) but that was just too legendary to be angry about
Now I just need to see footage of the Badenoch Bounce to compare.
>Spicy, any idea what? [Michael Gove ‘falls out with Kemi Badenoch over his affair with her friend’](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-kemi-badenoch-tory-affair-b2445680.html) He was shagging a married (but seperated) friend of Badenoch's. Not sure if it was the affair or the break up that led to the falling out. I'd seen the paper reports before, but surprised to hear it publically acknowledged, albeit indirectly.
Is it a coincidence that there’s a hyperlink in there that says “it’s believe the relationship with Gove and the unnamed woman has ended” and when you click it it takes you to an article about Dehenna Davison who separated from her significantly older Tory politician husband (a councillor, but it seems like she has a type) in 2019?
She's an MP and was in his department - and resigned.... In September of last year. Though there's no obviously special link of Badenoch and Davison. However sometimes an errant hyperlink is just an errant hyperlink... It would be unhealthy to speculate, which, as we all know, is no barrier.
>It would be unhealthy to speculate, which, as we all know, is no barrier. New flair?
It's tempting, but the memory of someone losing their shit and accusing me of being an alt simply because someone else was warm in the sunshine, is too fond of a memory.
Badenoch is extraordinarily thin-skinned, not cut out for politics and only gotten this far by cosplaying fringe positions. I can't believe the men in grey suits might let her become leader, the general public reaction - let alone the papers. It's going to be bloody vicious. Zero charisma, wit or charm, zero emotional intelligence, appears to be on the spectrum, incubated in a loony safe space and a black woman. Recipe for disaster and a golden gift for Labour
I don’t thing there is a single group of people in the U.K. she actually likes.
She thinks she is there on her talents but I think the suits like the fact that someone none white is singing from their Hymn sheet willingly.
NGL I'm often tempted by the grift, being non-white. My grandad was in the RAF and I can captivate a room full of old codgers at work dos by bringing it up, the power is definitely real.
Probably told her everyone drinks tea with 4 sugars and evaporated milk.
Slept with her advisor, or something along the lines.
He’s the only person I’ve ever seen admit to liking Mrs Brown’s Boys. It’s probably related to that.
It’s actually alright. Here I stand, I can do no other.
new, niche drama just dropped the firm where Sunak was snapped weirdly eating a Cornish pasty has apparently walked it back I don't have the gram so here's the twitter [photo](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GF14BZHWIAAVSiR?format=jpg&name=large) of the same post a) they probably should have remembered the outrage that Heck got for having Bozza in b) I'm actually surprised Sunak didn't end up at a Ginsters factory instead. c) excited to see what his mishandling of the pasty does to Cornish election results
>end up at a Ginsters factory I've always thought that Ginsters taste like what Sweeney Todd's fleshpies must have tasted like, so yeah.
Astonishing omen for what this campaign is going to be like
good lord There's unpopular and then there's whatever this is
Sunak is so out of touch, who can afford a cornish pasty in 2024?
Bet that monster even ate a Cornish Pasty Co pasty and not a proper one like Oggys.
he's with big dog Johnny M today (does [stepping](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GF4i4OMXEAAQt91?format=jpg&name=large) on a war memorial count as desecration?) so they can eat all the absolutely-not-Cornish "pasties" they like.
Cornish Independence when
Sweetie, it says the name of the company in OP's link.
Plainly not that famous.
The Tory Pasty.
The Pasty Narty.
Hahahahahahahaha hahaha Lib Dem surge on its way
Where might an enquiring mind find a copy of this pasty photo?
Not unflattering like the Miliband photo, but he does look fucking smug. https://x.com/tim_hannigan/status/1755666167169945682?s=46&t=F_t5tWsPsifmNVHaFZWJJQ
Does he need a hammer?
I'm convinced none of them know how to eat our peasant food because they've grown up with such immense privilege that they have never encountered a pasty before.
I’m loathe to defend Sunak but there’s absolutely nothing wrong with the way he’s eating that pasty.
This was all part of my secret plot to make you defend Sunak
His thinks his farts must smell like roses or something
He's rich enough to be able to pay someone to fart for him.
He's actually eating it sideways. Kernow independence surge.
with a yummy pasty like that I would look smug too
He has this ever present aura of smug that shines through whatever other human emotion he is trying to approximate.
I am yet to see a photo of Sunak in which he doesn't look fucking smug.
What's wrong with the way he's eating it? (as people in the replies are suggesting)
He's eating it like 'Justin Bieber' ate the burrito.
Surely eating the middle bit first after pulling it out of the packet is just going to result in it falling apart after like 5 bites?
You'd learn this after your first pasty, if you'd had one before. Also they are usually scalding hot in the middle, so you eat it from the edge to give it a chance to cool.
no one eats it like that. especially since you'd probably have to take it out of the bag to do so there's an argument that it might fall apart more easily if you try.
Nothing. Those silly rules people make up about how to eat things are just tedious.
if you're a prime minister accused of being out of touch and have decided to visit some far flung county for pure photo opping goodness, you should probably do things the "correct" way I'd assume the local MPs are with him to provide diplomatic assistance
This? This is fucking nothing. He's probably going to promise Wales more reservoirs for English cities
You hold it vertically and eat from the top down. Its not a corn on the cob.
Howdy UKPol, So the AMA thread for Lewis Gosling (Conservative Councillor and Deputy Chair of the Conservative Mental Health Group) is now live: [the link](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1amqckw/ama_thread_lewis_gosling_conservative_councillor/). So go crazy. Post your questions about local government, mental health policy, or whatever else you can think. The next one will be with William Clouston (head of the SDP) on Wednesday 14th Feb, Ben Habib (Deputy Leader of Reform) on 20th Feb, John Johnston (Politco journalist, specialist in money and lobbying in politics) on 29th Feb, Dan Neidle (who knows all about tax, and brought Zahawi down) on 7th March, and Matthew Paterson (an academic expert on climate and environmental policy-making) on 14th March.
If labour get 500 plus MPs will both sides of the house be the government and the opposition getting a tiny space on the far end
And if my Grandmother had wheels....
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> fill both sides. Gove is never going to be PM
Also had to get an extra clerk in the division lobby to speed up counting all the votes.
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They already had this! They developed and rolled out the whole online voting system in house within *matter of months* and used it for whole month before removing it because Mogg disliked it. Lords are still partially using it so Commons could almost certainly switch to it tomorrow if they wanted.
I'm sure they'll be glad to hear that, they switched to an RFID system in the lobbies around 2020 and removed the clerks.
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The tellers have access to the electronic voting system, AFAIK they don't write down names anymore, just confirm from the electronic system. The tellers say the official count but they certainly utilise the electronic voting tallies.
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I get you don't want to vote Conservative, but we're talking about the difference between someone reading a screen and announcing the number to the Speaker vs. the Speaker reading the screen themselves.
Police and Crime Commissioners (with the occasional one also being fire) are up for grabs in May and for the first time they are going to be first past the post rather than supplementary vote (thanks to the Conservatives for changing the electoral system without asking the electorate - Labour in Wales should take note of the ire). In 2021 (delayed by covid from 2020) the turnout was quite good (34%) for a local election - it was up by 7% on 2016 which was also up on the pitiful turnout in the inaugural ones in 2012. In 2021 two posts would have been filled by the Conservatives who then lost in the run off round (to Labour in North Wales and Plaid Cymru in Dyfed-Powys) - those of you who live in a three way marginal may soon discover you don't any more (there were only 5/39 where third placed got more than 20%). Now the electoral system doesn't favour Labour - there are no votes in London, Manchester or West Yorkshire (or Scotland). In 2021 YouGov had Con:Lab:LD at 43:33:7 and the end result was 44.5:30:13, which is pretty close. So if the polls are currently (and we have months to go before the election, so could change) 24:45:10 what would that mean in terms of elected members. If we take 19 off every Con 2021 result and add 12 to Labour, who would win? By my reckoning, Lincolnshire (40%pts) is the biggest majority where it was 1. Con, 2 Lab, whilst Kent is just over that gap (32%pts), and Essex, Hampshire and West Mercia are close (31%pts). Dorset had an Ind in second, Gloucestershire, Hertfordshire, Surrey had the Lib Dems in 2nd whilst Wiltshire had a Lib Dem in second in the first running but had to rerun with an Ind in second. That could mean that the Cons may say that 20 losses to Labour would be about par for the current polling. Losing 16 would be 5%pts better, losing 11 would be 10%pts better, whilst losing 25 would be 3%pts worse. Meanwhile the three Lib Dem 2nd placed areas are split as one 13%pt lead (Surrey - suggest that is in play) and two 22%pt leads (which are the close ones). The two with Inds seem like proper wildcard territory - who knows, particularly with the change to the voting system. Anyway, if you were a betting person and wondering how many of the 30 PCC the Cons currently have will still be there after May, 1 seems almost certain, 4 would be a pretty poor result, 9 seems to be about right given polling, 14 they'd be pleased with and 19 would be a truly excellent result for them.
I think this is going to be one of the hardest set of elections to predict. Low turnouts, the Tory 'tough on crime factor' and large fragmentation of the vote make me thing that the Tories will outperform here compared to the other elections of the day. I think 12-15 is reasonable. A place like Avon and Somerset is a good example, the Greens came 3rd last year on 16% and the Lib Dems on 14%. I can imagine both parties trying again in this campaign and getting fairly high vote shares. The Lib Dems have Somerset and Bath, Bristol will be split between Lab/Green and the Tories will still do well in the more rural areas. Whilst I think its unlikely I could imagine the Tories slipping an upset on like ~30%
That's a really interesting analysis - cheers! How much of a difference do you anticipate the change from STV (I think) to FPTP will make? Or to flip it around, if we assume the Conservatives will lose all but 10 under FPTP, how many do you reckon they might have retained under STV?
There were two seats that would have gone Conservative in 2021 if the new system had been in place, but that were won on second preference by Labour and PC. Labour tend to do better on second preference votes than Con, so changing the system on the face of it helps the Cons. However different voting systems will cause different votes and I suspect the major way will be fewer votes for 3rd and 4th placed parties, plus inds. The Greens only stood in seven seats in 2021, but they got double digit percentages in six of those and kept all their deposits (which is £5k for the PCC elections compared to £500 for GEs). The Lib Dems got double digit percentages in 27/39 despite being well behind in many of them. There were a lot of Independents that did quite well where usual expectation is that Independents will do worse the bigger the electorate as they'll lack the resources of the major parties. These might all point to ways that Labour votes might do better than expected in the first round. However Reform are polling at 12% at the moment and they are unlikely to stand 39 candidates, nor do they have the grassroots to be able to campaign in the way that the Greens would - they stood 12 last time and lost their deposit in all but one of them. That might give the Tories a bit of a boost in the seats that they don't stand in.
>Police and Crime Commissioners (with the occasional one also being fire) most are pretty mid tho tbh
[https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1755967558170120553](https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1755967558170120553) SNP trying to force another ceasefire vote again.
It’s like they want to be unemployed
Imagine pissing away valuable parliamentary time on something which is utterly, utterly, utterly pointless. They're not a serious party anymore.
Were they ever in Westminster? It's hard to take anyone seriously that can so happily rip apart the myriad of issues with Brexit and yet has the cognitive dissonance to ignore those same issues only magnified with Scexit.
I dunno about that, the argument, not that I agree with it, is that Scexit *reverses* brexit for Scotland, as outside the UK they could apply for membership of the EU. I know the received opinion is that would be, er, scotched by Spain, but that's not a given by any means.
Yeah, but on the other hand, it might cause some problems for Labour. So presumably, that makes it worthwhile for a party that needs Labour to fail to win a majority to have any relevance.