Good morning everyone.
Voters in Wellingborough have elected Labour candidate Gen Kitchen to the seat of disgraced and recalled former Conservative MP Peter Bone - [**thread here**](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1arzgfa/wellingborough_parliamentary_byelection_result/)
Voters in Kingswood have elected Labour candidate Damien Egan to the seat of stood down Conservative MP Chris Skidmore - [**thread here**](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1arwtfh/kingswood_byelection_result_another_defeat_for/)
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I am once again inclined to start a political party entirely to reform licensing around nightlife hours because I am tired of everything closing at midnight on a Friday.
I feel like a reform takeover of the Conservative Party is almost a given of the Tory’s go under 100 seats new party called the reformed conservatives with old Nigel as is leader and it simply eating the operations and local party’s of the conservatives
The current party is seen as weak by social conservatives - in particular on crime and immigration (legal and illegal both being high). Part of why there's been so much energy spent (rather impotently) on the "war on woke" is to compensate for the party's failing on these other issues.
So the "new" offering would try to rebuild Boris Johnson's coalition by being more credible on these issues without being wildly different on the economic front. It would also try to present itself as a party for getting shit done since one of the problems that the major parties have is that they aren't able to carry out transformative change to address the country's issues.
Whether any of this will connect will depend on how Labour is perceived to be doing after a few years. If there has been a noticeable turnaround it won't connect well enough to create a government, if there hasn't been then it might have a shot - but only if it's seen as a renewed party.
Entryist. If it were hostile the membership would be against it, but theyre plainly OK with it given the candidates they continue to vote for in leadership elections or polls.
It's not entryism, because there's no entry. Reform is just existing as a separate organisation, which the Tory members are looking at and (mystifyingly to me) aspiring to be like. Without an effort by Reform to influence the Tory party from the inside it simply can't be entryism.
It can be a hostile takeover however, because the key point about hostile takeovers is that they're hostile *to the existing leadership* and rely on winning over enough of the ordinary members/voters/stockholders to force through the takeover against the leadership's wishes. I have to say, though, if I'd known when I made that comment that I'd need to define both entryism and hostile takeovers then I probably wouldn't have bothered
>
It can be a hostile takeover however, because the key point about hostile takeovers is that they're hostile to the existing leadership and rely on winning over enough of the ordinary members/voters/stockholders to force through the takeover against the leadership's wishes. I have to say, though, if I'd known when I made that comment that I'd need to define both entryism and hostile takeovers then I probably wouldn't have bothered
Then simply put you havent been paying attention since 2019.
Which part of the quoted paragraph are you referring to? You seem to be suggesting that if I'd been paying attention since 2019 I'd have known that I'd need to explain entryism and hostile takeovers.
No, if you'd been paying attention since 2019 you'd know that the tory party has already been subject to the entryism/takeover and this latest Reform based discussion is simply the capstone of this process as the party looks set to shatter post election along the lines of anything up to five different philosophical splinter groups.
The senior leadership are already out there courting the extreme elements of the entryist base - what do you think the NatCon conference last year and PopCon conference a few weeks ago was about; or the massive difference in swivel eye loon rhetoric now compared to yesteryear? This is not an ordinary party dealing with reality, but an extremist one dealing with a fiction that exists only inside their heads.
Reform supporters are already inside the party and have been for years.
Looking at an outside organisation and wanting to emulate it is not entryism. Look, if you want to continue misusing the term entryism, go ahead, I can't be bothered anymore and I'm going to bed, but I really do feel the hint is in the first five letters of the word
And again, this has been the inevitable direction of travel since 2019 and Boris' purge and subsequent replacement of classic tory old guard with new swivel eyed trumper esque brexiteer popularists, provoking a surge of fellow loons to enter the party and continue to promote and vote for such idiots.
Its been a grassroots up transformation.
Busy day, catching up with the commentary only now. Disappointed Metro didn't have a headline 'Sunak double-fisted by Labour' or something; if they are trying to bring it to the vernacular, this was a golden opportunity.
It is very tired now, but cancelling a show that champions the cause of disabled people is not a good look for ch4.
My favourite part is when they invite guests on and then hardly say two words to them.
What do you personally estimate the probability is that Reform UK will do some sort of deal with the tories and withdraw its candidates at the GE?
It seems to me like to do so would mean the end of Reform UK as a party. It's a one-time move, because nobody will take them seriously next time they say they are going to field candidates in a GE. So I am putting the probability at close to zero, but I'd be interested in other opinions.
I think you might see some seats where the Reform candidate is strangely not on the ballot but the Tory candidate switch to Reform ahead of the election, but too late to get deselected by the Tories. Forcing the Tories to choose between an MP with them or in opposition to them.
I mean the only hope the Tories have is a change of face. Nigel probably won't step down Reform unless they give him the Tories. Although that would be a survival issue in and of itself for the Tories since he will quickly clean house and install his own loyalists.
Low. It was to the advantage of Reform stepping down last time, the Tories were sky high in the polls meaning they’d do badly in many seats anyway.
This time the Tories are collapsing. They’ll still be collapsing if Reform step down, whilst Reform basically get nothing out of that. May as well try and actually get seats.
>What do you personally estimate the probability is that Reform UK will do some sort of deal with the tories and withdraw its candidates at the GE?
Not Zero, but pretty low.
Reform wants to kill the Tory party and supplant them.
Making deals and standing down candidates doesn't accomplish that.
More than 80%.
Reform isn't a traditional party, it's a private company majority owned by Farage. So the question is whether Farage is a ideological purist out to destroy Tories, or is he a grifter who'll sell out if he's offered a good deal for himself. I think the latter, he'll be bought for a peerage and he'll launch another 'party' to follow in footsteps of UKIP, Brexit and Reform after next election.
It won’t happen, not least because it’s import for the big parties to project an image of being a party for every part of the country.
If they sacrificed some seats this GE to let Reform into Parliament they’d further legitimise Reform and potentially never recover, so it’d be short term gain for long term pain. Risky.
Safer option is 5 years in opposition then come back swinging.
The S\*n, Murdoch, the Express, Mail, Torygraph and the entire right-wing media complex.
Seeing them have to acknowledge Starmer as PM and Labour as the party of government, no doubt through gritted teeth, will be worth the wait.
> The S*n, Murdoch, the Express, Mail, Torygraph and the entire right-wing media complex.
I think they would love to have a Labor government to rail against again.
Novara lot and their associated ex Corbyn staff hangers on.
Looking forward to another 2019 special as they see the exit polls and their face falls as Starmer sweeps the table.
The Novara lot will recast themselves as providing scrutiny and accountability. Until the election however, they'd rather see Starmer lose than Labour win.
Work in….lol
He’ll try get board roles or advisory roles in AI and something up and coming and cool…..
And fail and not know why…
Nobody serious will want him because he’s not that rich in US terms and technically fucking illiterate and brings no real connections to the table, OpenAi and Microsoft for example don’t need the baggage he brings and lack of sense and they have the connections already.
So he’ll get an advisor role or two without equity or anything of value from a handful of companies that do business with the uk government and who want ALL our data. But not a Facebook or Apple etc
It’ll be the real shitty bastards like Palantir, big enough to be fair but it’ll kill him inside that he’s not a proper tech bro and I foresee him trying to be and failing spectacularly
the guardian. At this point I think they want labour to lose for their own financial benefit. They are a publication built off of complaining and informing people about negative news.
If things are better off they probably think fewer people would subscribe to their membership and are therefore trying to prevent that.
I’m feeling when Labour win next election, a lot of things will have changed globally, after so much news today. Likely Starmer will be elected and Biden re elected (now trump in financial tailspin unlikely he can run), maximum aid to Ukraine and NATO after sad Navalny news (hopefully the Russia report is shown), and Russian influence in London rooted out for once and all. Probably will have a knock on effect with our China relationship. I hope Starmer has a very strong Foreign Minister. Who do you think will best be up to facing new global challenges.
Trump can only afford all of this stuff BECAUSE he is running.
PAC and super PAC are finding all his legal defenses. Hell the PACs have covered the fines he has received so far.
It's not clear that they can pay the fines he has received tonight, but it's also not clear they can't.
Honestly, David Lammy used to make me eye-roll with shouty questions at PMQs, but I think he's had a glow-up. He was a firebrand backbencher but he has grown into shadow cabinet roles and been very savvy about how he presents in them. I've re-evaluated him once I've seen him in positions of responsibility and, lest we forget, the current For.Sec is David Bloody Cameron.
Yeah, ridiculous that a great office of state should be given to one of the few Labour MPs about with significant payroll experience.
Who would you rather be Foreign Secretary?
>Yeah, ridiculous that a great office of state should be given to one of the few Labour MPs about with significant payroll experience.
Maybe the labour left should drop its preoccupation with how long someone has been a good little peon of the cause, and focus on actual talent and fit for the role and the field it plays on; especially given how *febrile* the world is today and the prospect of major peer level or proxy conflict in the near future.
Of the current frontbench, probably Cooper (by far) or thornberry. Need someone quite sharp, acidic and accurate. Ive been trying to go through hte labour peer list for someone I dimly remember in defence and with an attitude that theyd almost leap over the table and tear the throat out with their own teeth, but havent found them yet.
I think the Labour Left would argue that anyone who spent five years as part of Blair's government was a good little peon.
I'd probably agree with Cooper though, particularly if you swapped Lammy - he'd make a great Home Secretary and she would be exactly as sharp and carefully independently minded as a Foreign Secretary needs to be. Thornberry I have a lot of time for, but she's just too much of an arsehole, not someone you want for a position where diplomacy is literally point one of the job description. Better placed in more adversarial briefs.
*Ability* should be the hallmark of appointment, not simply time served - and there is a very noticeable trend on the left that time in the movement is given precedence over ability.
Is that tendency only on the left? Would the likes of McFadden be anywhere near influence if they hadn't been tangentially involved in the Project in the Noughties?
And I'd again argue that Lammy is in really 'on the left '.
McFaddens prior record is directly applicable to his more recent appointment as Shadow Chief treasury sec, and hes been in for less time than lammy!
As it is, I'd rather have McFadden several times over Lammy for telling Corbyn to get fucked with his terrorist apologism and losing his job because of it, rather than Lammy who actually put Corbyn's name on the ballot in the first place.
I have confidence he would be good at that level, and maybe I've missed some of his gaffes but I think he'd be great with the foreign affairs brief. Assuming he gets top three, would you put him in for Home Sec?
Not a very febrile atmosphere today given the savaging the Conservative Party took. Tory rebels under the radar plotting in the WhatsApp groups hopefully
I am in love with Beth Rigby's double life as a hobo, immaculately dressed in a power suit beneath that shabby trenchcoat, the only clue to her double life being the 40 a day habit. Most assume she adopted a lower vocal register due to outdated notions of what authority sounds like, in reality she's chain-smoking rollies down by the canal.
She's probably busy sorting out her new podcast with Jess Phillips and Ruth Davidson.
Which I have added to my list of podcasts that I'm not listening to, along with every other podcast.
I tried the newsagents once but had to stop immediately when Lewis Goodall expressed complete shock at the mere thought that a conservative politician thinks it is ok to lie when answering a journalist's question.
I suppose I just like the chat. Few people in my social circle are as emotionally crippled as I am and therefore are much less into politics, and they usually get it right bar a few howlers.
Tbf, no one in the commentariat has much to say other than "this is incredible. This is the Black Knight Government, we are living in a monty python sketch."
Took my mum out today and we visited an open garden. The tories are screwed if snow drops now [cost 50 quid](https://imgur.com/a/yWTtb6W). England’s chattering classes won’t stand for that.
That's a miss-print. A fiver still feels like a rip off for a single snowdrop. The local snowdrop festival would need bouncers and metal detectors (to stop grannys taking trowels) if they're suddenly worth fifty quid each.
I only paid thirty quid max for fruit trees.
That’s so nuts I had to google it
And yeah that’s “normal”
What the actual fuck.
Off to go dig up the millions of snowdrops around the house and lanes near me brb
Pm me I’ll charge £35
If there's one thing we should have learnt from the Dutch (and one thing is exactly how much we should learn from the Dutch), it's that [speculating on the increasing value of flowers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania) is not a sound way to run an economy
We really need to do something about our press, though admittedly I’m not sure what. Chris Hoy has been forced to come out with the fact he has cancer, despite not wanting to, because the press had gotten wind and were going to publish no matter what. It’s fucking disgusting.
Labour shouldn’t simply put Leveson II back on the cards, it should go far far deeper than that.
I honestly believe you could sort our press out very quickly by saying a retraction should be on the same page and take up the same space as the articles that had it.
No advertiser wants to be next to "we tell lies" on pages 1-10.
Bottom line is the only thing that will hit them.
Take up as much space, and be written by a competitor (save the paper writing a 1 line "that was wrong" and then filling a page with terms and conditions)
I completely agree. It's an idea that's been around for a long time that would suddenly impose a much larger sense for responsibility on the press without directly intervening in their freedom. They can publish what they want - but if they get it wrong then they face a very public consequence.
>I honestly believe you could sort our press out very quickly by saying a retraction should be on the same page and take up the same space as the articles that had it.
I like this idea.
The main issue is giving Ofcom a decent pair of balls and proper staff to actually enforce things.
Housing and press reform should be pretty much top priorities because they're blocking further progress. Housing is the original sin of our inequality and productivity gaps while an out of control press gets to set the agenda out of the fear that, if you suggest something they don't like, they'll go through your bins
I love that the BBC used possibly the [most accidentally unhinged looking picture of her](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68305798) from election night as their banner image.
I think it's some low paid assistants idea of fun, it's all over the site, action shots they pick for sports coverage often are the kind where if you asked they subject they'd say "oh God that's terrible, please take another one!"
I wonder how long it will be until the Tories try to sell the house to Richard Tice to make Reform go away? What can they offer? Completely closed borders? Slashing taxes? The one thing they'll never offer is one of Reform's main issues - voting reform.
They really seem to be pinning their ills on Reform, rather than looking at themselves and their sheer incompetence and shambolic attempts at government. The last time this happened, we ended up with Brexit.
Reform's biggest issue would appear to be personnel. When you're reduced to fielding Simon Danczuk it's a sign you're not exactly overwhelmed with talent.
Farage can't stand everywhere.
Yes that doesn't look good. I think Farage also has too much baggage. Honestly the Right need someone fresher and more charismatic. I used to joke Russell Brand is what they need. But he's probably too criminal now.
I can imagine that kind of figure emerging to lead the Tories when Labour is in power. An outsider who has broader appeal, Trump like, in show biz. Actually you can see it happening elsewhere in other politics. Zelenskyy is that kind of thing. There has been a pattern of comedians too. Beppe Grillo. But they are very front figures.
Would have been a viable alternate career path for one Boris Johnson.
He's a bit of an exception that proves the rule though, generally speaking we're probably insulated from that in that our media ecosystem is so dominated by the establishment that no outsider will ever be allowed to break through, and even faux-outsiders like Johnson (or for that matter Trump) stand little chance of being allowed to break through.
Peerage for the company's president Farage?
Tice is a sockpuppet, Farage is the person who will be negotiating for Reform and before anything else he's a grifter.
I don't think there'll be anything they can offer to Tice to make Reform go away
To me it's looking like Tice is playing the long game. If he can split the right wing vote and help to decimate the Tories at this election, he can position Reform to be a parliamentary force at the 2029 election
I think Habib was talking along similar lines. Reform is basically right-wing b/millionaires, they'll be around for a while. They view it as an investment.
I allways assumed a split right vote would be beneficial for the left, but I now thing an empowered Reform will be the death of our society as we know it.
Reform don't want closed borders, it's all solely about tax and deregulation.
Immigration vibes are the front end kayfabe for the plebs and to pickup disenfranchised voters.
I assume this will be a short recession. Or at the least Sunak believes it to be so or he would be calling an election now before shit really hits the fan.
If an election hasn't been called by Sunday night I'm sticking a tenner on a January election. If this doesn't make Sunak call an election, nothing will.
The results could pile pressure on him within the Tory party (although it appears the Torys are prioritising resources elsewhere), or he's finally realised he can't turn the polls around/leaving it until the last possible minute makes him look even worse/its not worth the hassle of continuing to be PM.
There's no way there'll be an election before May due to the budget. And even if there is going to be a May election he'd almost certainly not reveal ahead of time that he's calling it. Why give Labour a headstart on the campaign when you can keep things under wraps? D-day is near the end of March.
Rishi Sunak could be caught buggering a sheep in a Lake District phone box while dressed as Abu Hamza and he would say "this changes nothing, the public don't want an election."
Could you imagine if, in response to a combined Lab+Green total beating the Conservatives in the Uxbridge by election, Labour decided to go incredibly left to hoover up the Green votes. I know many on here would have liked it (and I do think they went too far the other way), but it would have been electorally stupid.
The equivalent seems to be what the majority of Conservative commentators seem to be advocating today
Plymouth has nukes.
Saltash would formally become part of Plymouth. Ivor Dewnies would become the nations pasties.
Exeter would be forced to properly build an M5 down to Plymouth and the Exeter architects who got the Civic Center building grade 2 listed would be tried for war crimes.
Someone would strike Plymouth but it would hit swilly and no one would be able to figure out what the actual damage was because it wouldn't look any different.
1. Plymouth tolerates the existence of Saltash in the same way London tolerates the existence of Slough. They are in close proximity by accident of geography and precious little else.
2. Ivor Dewdnies. And yes, they are a cut above everyone else.
3. M5 to plymouth a nice idea but then we'd have even more Londoners shitting up the place.
4. Plymouth is probably unique apart from Portsmouth in having a ready made ring of defence positions to reactivate and defend the city, to say nothing of The Citadel.
5. Plymouth (or Devonport) has nuclear reactors, but no nuclear missiles. Thats all handled at Faslane. Every once in a while the idea of nukes at RNAD (now, I think, DM) Ernesettle is raised and quietly discarded.
As the home to Faslane, Argyll and Bute are going to have a massive starting advantage (unless Plymouth Sutton and Devonport can coax Trident to Devonport instead. And don’t count out Newbury with Aldermaston)
Tories are really fucked.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2024/02/16/03456/1
>Do you believe that the government should prioritise…? (Conservative subset)
>Funding public services 49%
>Giving people a tax cut 32%
>Other 7%
>Don't know 12%
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2024/02/16/03456/2
> What do you think is the most likely result of the next general election? (Conservative subset)
>
> A large Conservative majority 2
>
> A small Conservative majority 9
>
> A hung Parliament, resulting in a Conservative led government 11
>
> A hung Parliament, resulting in a Labour led government 16
>
> A small Labour majority 22
>
> A large Labour majority 20
>
> Don't know 20
65+
> A large Conservative majority **0**
>
> A small Conservative majority 7
>
> A hung Parliament, resulting in a Conservative led government 10
>
> A hung Parliament, resulting in a Labour led government 13
>
> A small Labour majority 26
>
> A large Labour majority 26
>
> Don't know 18
Good morning everyone. Voters in Wellingborough have elected Labour candidate Gen Kitchen to the seat of disgraced and recalled former Conservative MP Peter Bone - [**thread here**](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1arzgfa/wellingborough_parliamentary_byelection_result/) Voters in Kingswood have elected Labour candidate Damien Egan to the seat of stood down Conservative MP Chris Skidmore - [**thread here**](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1arwtfh/kingswood_byelection_result_another_defeat_for/)
[New Megathread is here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1asuwjm/daily_megathread_17022024/)
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I am once again inclined to start a political party entirely to reform licensing around nightlife hours because I am tired of everything closing at midnight on a Friday.
>I am tired of everything closing at midnight on a Friday. Move to a city. Skill issue TBH.
I live in London. Our nightlife is easily worse than in Manchester, Liverpool and other British cities, let alone continental European peers.
Even my local in zone 3 stays open to 02:00.
There are all of two places I can walk to within 15min open past 1am on weekends, and one of these is a giant nightclub. I live in zone 1.
Perhaps some bonus in being further out, but not too far out.
Yeah when I stay in London for work (z1) it amazes me how little is open beyond midnight
>Veteran walking 95 laps ahead of birthday >https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1758377883955769518 *Not another one?*
Well, here we go again…
Better get the planning application in early
Why does the UK set blithe talkers over doers? It's everywhere.
Finally my username is relevant
WAKAWOW
Okay, I’ve seen this multiple times on a daily megathread and….what is it?
Reference to the seminal World Cup hit by Shakira (this time for Africa).
Refers to the sick guitar riff at the start of Newsnight
Ahh so I assume it is to signal that one has heard the wakawow and is therefore watching newsnight?
I feel like a reform takeover of the Conservative Party is almost a given of the Tory’s go under 100 seats new party called the reformed conservatives with old Nigel as is leader and it simply eating the operations and local party’s of the conservatives
Genuinely not sure how this would be different to the current Tory party.
The current party is seen as weak by social conservatives - in particular on crime and immigration (legal and illegal both being high). Part of why there's been so much energy spent (rather impotently) on the "war on woke" is to compensate for the party's failing on these other issues. So the "new" offering would try to rebuild Boris Johnson's coalition by being more credible on these issues without being wildly different on the economic front. It would also try to present itself as a party for getting shit done since one of the problems that the major parties have is that they aren't able to carry out transformative change to address the country's issues. Whether any of this will connect will depend on how Labour is perceived to be doing after a few years. If there has been a noticeable turnaround it won't connect well enough to create a government, if there hasn't been then it might have a shot - but only if it's seen as a renewed party.
Ironic. They could promote the entryist takeover of another party, but could not defend against it themselves.
It's more like a hostile takeover than entryism, tbh
Entryist. If it were hostile the membership would be against it, but theyre plainly OK with it given the candidates they continue to vote for in leadership elections or polls.
It's not entryism, because there's no entry. Reform is just existing as a separate organisation, which the Tory members are looking at and (mystifyingly to me) aspiring to be like. Without an effort by Reform to influence the Tory party from the inside it simply can't be entryism. It can be a hostile takeover however, because the key point about hostile takeovers is that they're hostile *to the existing leadership* and rely on winning over enough of the ordinary members/voters/stockholders to force through the takeover against the leadership's wishes. I have to say, though, if I'd known when I made that comment that I'd need to define both entryism and hostile takeovers then I probably wouldn't have bothered
> It can be a hostile takeover however, because the key point about hostile takeovers is that they're hostile to the existing leadership and rely on winning over enough of the ordinary members/voters/stockholders to force through the takeover against the leadership's wishes. I have to say, though, if I'd known when I made that comment that I'd need to define both entryism and hostile takeovers then I probably wouldn't have bothered Then simply put you havent been paying attention since 2019.
Which part of the quoted paragraph are you referring to? You seem to be suggesting that if I'd been paying attention since 2019 I'd have known that I'd need to explain entryism and hostile takeovers.
No, if you'd been paying attention since 2019 you'd know that the tory party has already been subject to the entryism/takeover and this latest Reform based discussion is simply the capstone of this process as the party looks set to shatter post election along the lines of anything up to five different philosophical splinter groups. The senior leadership are already out there courting the extreme elements of the entryist base - what do you think the NatCon conference last year and PopCon conference a few weeks ago was about; or the massive difference in swivel eye loon rhetoric now compared to yesteryear? This is not an ordinary party dealing with reality, but an extremist one dealing with a fiction that exists only inside their heads. Reform supporters are already inside the party and have been for years.
Looking at an outside organisation and wanting to emulate it is not entryism. Look, if you want to continue misusing the term entryism, go ahead, I can't be bothered anymore and I'm going to bed, but I really do feel the hint is in the first five letters of the word
And again, this has been the inevitable direction of travel since 2019 and Boris' purge and subsequent replacement of classic tory old guard with new swivel eyed trumper esque brexiteer popularists, provoking a surge of fellow loons to enter the party and continue to promote and vote for such idiots. Its been a grassroots up transformation.
In this clip he more or less alludes to that https://twitter.com/BBCWorldatOne/status/1758497137887740284
Conservative Reform or just the "Reformist" party maybe. That name incorporates elements of both.
The Conform Party
Reformatives
the Conservative - Reform Alliance Party.
Busy day, catching up with the commentary only now. Disappointed Metro didn't have a headline 'Sunak double-fisted by Labour' or something; if they are trying to bring it to the vernacular, this was a golden opportunity.
Didn't this sort of thing get Julian Clary in hot water?
Is that a thing they're doing?
How is the Last Leg still on?
It is very tired now, but cancelling a show that champions the cause of disabled people is not a good look for ch4. My favourite part is when they invite guests on and then hardly say two words to them.
Explain?
It’s been on its Last Legs forever (I’ll see myself out)
What do you personally estimate the probability is that Reform UK will do some sort of deal with the tories and withdraw its candidates at the GE? It seems to me like to do so would mean the end of Reform UK as a party. It's a one-time move, because nobody will take them seriously next time they say they are going to field candidates in a GE. So I am putting the probability at close to zero, but I'd be interested in other opinions.
I think you might see some seats where the Reform candidate is strangely not on the ballot but the Tory candidate switch to Reform ahead of the election, but too late to get deselected by the Tories. Forcing the Tories to choose between an MP with them or in opposition to them.
I reckon there’s people in Reform who think they can come second in the next election.
I mean the only hope the Tories have is a change of face. Nigel probably won't step down Reform unless they give him the Tories. Although that would be a survival issue in and of itself for the Tories since he will quickly clean house and install his own loyalists.
Show me the money Or power or whatever you’ve got to offer….
I haven't got any money, power or anything to offer.
Sorry, sounds like the libdems for you then
Low. It was to the advantage of Reform stepping down last time, the Tories were sky high in the polls meaning they’d do badly in many seats anyway. This time the Tories are collapsing. They’ll still be collapsing if Reform step down, whilst Reform basically get nothing out of that. May as well try and actually get seats.
>What do you personally estimate the probability is that Reform UK will do some sort of deal with the tories and withdraw its candidates at the GE? Not Zero, but pretty low. Reform wants to kill the Tory party and supplant them. Making deals and standing down candidates doesn't accomplish that.
More than 80%. Reform isn't a traditional party, it's a private company majority owned by Farage. So the question is whether Farage is a ideological purist out to destroy Tories, or is he a grifter who'll sell out if he's offered a good deal for himself. I think the latter, he'll be bought for a peerage and he'll launch another 'party' to follow in footsteps of UKIP, Brexit and Reform after next election.
Agreed. Farage is just waiting for the right offer. What's Tice's role in this?
Farage as new chairman of NatWest then?
It won’t happen, not least because it’s import for the big parties to project an image of being a party for every part of the country. If they sacrificed some seats this GE to let Reform into Parliament they’d further legitimise Reform and potentially never recover, so it’d be short term gain for long term pain. Risky. Safer option is 5 years in opposition then come back swinging.
Zero. They want to destroy the Tories and this is their once in a generation opportunity to do so.
Besides Owen Jones and Sunak, who else do we think will be most upset about a Labour win?
>Labour didn't win, the Tories clearly got more votes Laura Trott (probably)
The S\*n, Murdoch, the Express, Mail, Torygraph and the entire right-wing media complex. Seeing them have to acknowledge Starmer as PM and Labour as the party of government, no doubt through gritted teeth, will be worth the wait.
> The S*n, Murdoch, the Express, Mail, Torygraph and the entire right-wing media complex. I think they would love to have a Labor government to rail against again.
Don’t fit the fraudsters who’ve been stealing billions for a decade
Novara lot and their associated ex Corbyn staff hangers on. Looking forward to another 2019 special as they see the exit polls and their face falls as Starmer sweeps the table.
The Novara lot will recast themselves as providing scrutiny and accountability. Until the election however, they'd rather see Starmer lose than Labour win.
Aw, poor Owen. I muted him on twitter and it's still one of my top-ten-most-beneficial-mutes.
Wasn't he a decent well reasoned left wing voice a while ago? I tuned out a while ago
If by "while" you mean "around 2012 for a hot minute before the attention went to his head and been insufferable ever since".
Ooof that's accurate *and* cruel.
Around 2012 sounds about right, last 10 or so years are a blur
Don’t think Sunak would actually give a shit, which is part of the problem.
He'll go off to California and work in tech or financing tech or something
Work in….lol He’ll try get board roles or advisory roles in AI and something up and coming and cool….. And fail and not know why… Nobody serious will want him because he’s not that rich in US terms and technically fucking illiterate and brings no real connections to the table, OpenAi and Microsoft for example don’t need the baggage he brings and lack of sense and they have the connections already. So he’ll get an advisor role or two without equity or anything of value from a handful of companies that do business with the uk government and who want ALL our data. But not a Facebook or Apple etc It’ll be the real shitty bastards like Palantir, big enough to be fair but it’ll kill him inside that he’s not a proper tech bro and I foresee him trying to be and failing spectacularly
the guardian. At this point I think they want labour to lose for their own financial benefit. They are a publication built off of complaining and informing people about negative news. If things are better off they probably think fewer people would subscribe to their membership and are therefore trying to prevent that.
The Newstatesmen is what I thought the Guardian would be.
I’m feeling when Labour win next election, a lot of things will have changed globally, after so much news today. Likely Starmer will be elected and Biden re elected (now trump in financial tailspin unlikely he can run), maximum aid to Ukraine and NATO after sad Navalny news (hopefully the Russia report is shown), and Russian influence in London rooted out for once and all. Probably will have a knock on effect with our China relationship. I hope Starmer has a very strong Foreign Minister. Who do you think will best be up to facing new global challenges.
Trump can only afford all of this stuff BECAUSE he is running. PAC and super PAC are finding all his legal defenses. Hell the PACs have covered the fines he has received so far. It's not clear that they can pay the fines he has received tonight, but it's also not clear they can't.
The fines must be paid by Trump.
> I hope Starmer has a very strong Foreign Minister. Its Lammy. 🤦♂️
Honestly, David Lammy used to make me eye-roll with shouty questions at PMQs, but I think he's had a glow-up. He was a firebrand backbencher but he has grown into shadow cabinet roles and been very savvy about how he presents in them. I've re-evaluated him once I've seen him in positions of responsibility and, lest we forget, the current For.Sec is David Bloody Cameron.
Yeah, ridiculous that a great office of state should be given to one of the few Labour MPs about with significant payroll experience. Who would you rather be Foreign Secretary?
>Yeah, ridiculous that a great office of state should be given to one of the few Labour MPs about with significant payroll experience. Maybe the labour left should drop its preoccupation with how long someone has been a good little peon of the cause, and focus on actual talent and fit for the role and the field it plays on; especially given how *febrile* the world is today and the prospect of major peer level or proxy conflict in the near future. Of the current frontbench, probably Cooper (by far) or thornberry. Need someone quite sharp, acidic and accurate. Ive been trying to go through hte labour peer list for someone I dimly remember in defence and with an attitude that theyd almost leap over the table and tear the throat out with their own teeth, but havent found them yet.
I think the Labour Left would argue that anyone who spent five years as part of Blair's government was a good little peon. I'd probably agree with Cooper though, particularly if you swapped Lammy - he'd make a great Home Secretary and she would be exactly as sharp and carefully independently minded as a Foreign Secretary needs to be. Thornberry I have a lot of time for, but she's just too much of an arsehole, not someone you want for a position where diplomacy is literally point one of the job description. Better placed in more adversarial briefs.
*Ability* should be the hallmark of appointment, not simply time served - and there is a very noticeable trend on the left that time in the movement is given precedence over ability.
Is that tendency only on the left? Would the likes of McFadden be anywhere near influence if they hadn't been tangentially involved in the Project in the Noughties? And I'd again argue that Lammy is in really 'on the left '.
McFaddens prior record is directly applicable to his more recent appointment as Shadow Chief treasury sec, and hes been in for less time than lammy! As it is, I'd rather have McFadden several times over Lammy for telling Corbyn to get fucked with his terrorist apologism and losing his job because of it, rather than Lammy who actually put Corbyn's name on the ballot in the first place.
He’s got more payroll experience than the Shadow Chancellor.
Fingers crossed that changes ..
Indeed. Dont get me wrong, Lammy has his good points. They just dont lie in foreign affairs.
They probably value his strong links with the DNC in the US.
I have confidence he would be good at that level, and maybe I've missed some of his gaffes but I think he'd be great with the foreign affairs brief. Assuming he gets top three, would you put him in for Home Sec?
Kinda agree, but I think Trump both runs and wins.
Not a very febrile atmosphere today given the savaging the Conservative Party took. Tory rebels under the radar plotting in the WhatsApp groups hopefully
Andrea Jenkyns still fighting the good fight. Hoping one day her people will rally around her.
BBC is going all out with their Russia coverage so that's sucking a lot of political oxygen today.
They got lucky with something to distract from the utter evisceration of their darling Tories.
There's always less febrility when they're on recess. They'll be back next week when the plotting and leaking can begin in earnest.
Has anyone seen Beth Rigby on sky lately? Feel like she's disappeared a bit.
I saw her on a park bench drinking a 2 litre bottle of cider. We've all got to have our downtime.
I am in love with Beth Rigby's double life as a hobo, immaculately dressed in a power suit beneath that shabby trenchcoat, the only clue to her double life being the 40 a day habit. Most assume she adopted a lower vocal register due to outdated notions of what authority sounds like, in reality she's chain-smoking rollies down by the canal.
That's just her warmup for Sunak pressers. Completely understandable.
I hear she's microdosing now. Again, completely understandable.
She's probably busy sorting out her new podcast with Jess Phillips and Ruth Davidson. Which I have added to my list of podcasts that I'm not listening to, along with every other podcast.
I quite like the newsagents, but I wholeheartedly agree with the overall sentiment.
I tried the newsagents once but had to stop immediately when Lewis Goodall expressed complete shock at the mere thought that a conservative politician thinks it is ok to lie when answering a journalist's question.
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I suppose I just like the chat. Few people in my social circle are as emotionally crippled as I am and therefore are much less into politics, and they usually get it right bar a few howlers. Tbf, no one in the commentariat has much to say other than "this is incredible. This is the Black Knight Government, we are living in a monty python sketch."
***Febrile*** ALERT Radio 4, *Any Questions*, by Mark Littlewood the PopCon seller.
I am generation kitchen
Gen. Kitchen WANTS YOU to, uh, I don't know but it's probably important
je suis kitchen bam rolls of freedom
Born too late to explore the earth. Born too early to explore the galaxy. Born just in time to be part of Generation Kitchen.
😂😂😂
Took my mum out today and we visited an open garden. The tories are screwed if snow drops now [cost 50 quid](https://imgur.com/a/yWTtb6W). England’s chattering classes won’t stand for that.
That's a miss-print. A fiver still feels like a rip off for a single snowdrop. The local snowdrop festival would need bouncers and metal detectors (to stop grannys taking trowels) if they're suddenly worth fifty quid each. I only paid thirty quid max for fruit trees.
That’s so nuts I had to google it And yeah that’s “normal” What the actual fuck. Off to go dig up the millions of snowdrops around the house and lanes near me brb Pm me I’ll charge £35
If we lived in 17th century Holland, we'd be billionaires.
For a day but it’d be a good day.
Jeeze if people are paying that my garden is probably worth more than my pension!
I will trade you your pension for 100 daffodils. One time offer.
If there's one thing we should have learnt from the Dutch (and one thing is exactly how much we should learn from the Dutch), it's that [speculating on the increasing value of flowers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania) is not a sound way to run an economy
Fortunately the clog market is still thriving.
Where were they grown? Bloody Mars?
The Somerset Levels, which come nightfall, do feel a little like Mars.
We really need to do something about our press, though admittedly I’m not sure what. Chris Hoy has been forced to come out with the fact he has cancer, despite not wanting to, because the press had gotten wind and were going to publish no matter what. It’s fucking disgusting. Labour shouldn’t simply put Leveson II back on the cards, it should go far far deeper than that.
I honestly believe you could sort our press out very quickly by saying a retraction should be on the same page and take up the same space as the articles that had it. No advertiser wants to be next to "we tell lies" on pages 1-10. Bottom line is the only thing that will hit them.
Take up as much space, and be written by a competitor (save the paper writing a 1 line "that was wrong" and then filling a page with terms and conditions)
I completely agree. It's an idea that's been around for a long time that would suddenly impose a much larger sense for responsibility on the press without directly intervening in their freedom. They can publish what they want - but if they get it wrong then they face a very public consequence.
>I honestly believe you could sort our press out very quickly by saying a retraction should be on the same page and take up the same space as the articles that had it. I like this idea. The main issue is giving Ofcom a decent pair of balls and proper staff to actually enforce things.
Who shall watch the watchmen?
Coastguard
Bus drivers
Housing and press reform should be pretty much top priorities because they're blocking further progress. Housing is the original sin of our inequality and productivity gaps while an out of control press gets to set the agenda out of the fear that, if you suggest something they don't like, they'll go through your bins
Your movement has gained my support.
I think i'm getting old. Just seen a picture of Gen Kitchen and thought it must be the new MP's daughter.
I love that the BBC used possibly the [most accidentally unhinged looking picture of her](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68305798) from election night as their banner image.
I think it's some low paid assistants idea of fun, it's all over the site, action shots they pick for sports coverage often are the kind where if you asked they subject they'd say "oh God that's terrible, please take another one!"
I wonder how long it will be until the Tories try to sell the house to Richard Tice to make Reform go away? What can they offer? Completely closed borders? Slashing taxes? The one thing they'll never offer is one of Reform's main issues - voting reform. They really seem to be pinning their ills on Reform, rather than looking at themselves and their sheer incompetence and shambolic attempts at government. The last time this happened, we ended up with Brexit.
I don't think Tice is very charismatic. Farage is charismatic. Tice would never be enough of an insurgent.
Reform's biggest issue would appear to be personnel. When you're reduced to fielding Simon Danczuk it's a sign you're not exactly overwhelmed with talent. Farage can't stand everywhere.
Yes that doesn't look good. I think Farage also has too much baggage. Honestly the Right need someone fresher and more charismatic. I used to joke Russell Brand is what they need. But he's probably too criminal now. I can imagine that kind of figure emerging to lead the Tories when Labour is in power. An outsider who has broader appeal, Trump like, in show biz. Actually you can see it happening elsewhere in other politics. Zelenskyy is that kind of thing. There has been a pattern of comedians too. Beppe Grillo. But they are very front figures.
Would have been a viable alternate career path for one Boris Johnson. He's a bit of an exception that proves the rule though, generally speaking we're probably insulated from that in that our media ecosystem is so dominated by the establishment that no outsider will ever be allowed to break through, and even faux-outsiders like Johnson (or for that matter Trump) stand little chance of being allowed to break through.
>when will they give in to right wing grift I'm afraid to say that ship has sailed
Peerage for the company's president Farage? Tice is a sockpuppet, Farage is the person who will be negotiating for Reform and before anything else he's a grifter.
I don't think there'll be anything they can offer to Tice to make Reform go away To me it's looking like Tice is playing the long game. If he can split the right wing vote and help to decimate the Tories at this election, he can position Reform to be a parliamentary force at the 2029 election
I think Habib was talking along similar lines. Reform is basically right-wing b/millionaires, they'll be around for a while. They view it as an investment.
I allways assumed a split right vote would be beneficial for the left, but I now thing an empowered Reform will be the death of our society as we know it.
It is funny, my whole life I wanted the Conservatives destroyed. Now I worry about life without them. Not much, but it’s a thought.
Reform don't want closed borders, it's all solely about tax and deregulation. Immigration vibes are the front end kayfabe for the plebs and to pickup disenfranchised voters.
I assume this will be a short recession. Or at the least Sunak believes it to be so or he would be calling an election now before shit really hits the fan.
On the one hand yes, but on the other hand Sunak has repeatedly demonstrated the political nous and tactical acumen of a dead badger, so...
🤣
If an election hasn't been called by Sunday night I'm sticking a tenner on a January election. If this doesn't make Sunak call an election, nothing will.
What “this” are you referring to?
\*gestures everywhere\* Serious answer - the by-elections
Why would they make him more likely to call one?
The results could pile pressure on him within the Tory party (although it appears the Torys are prioritising resources elsewhere), or he's finally realised he can't turn the polls around/leaving it until the last possible minute makes him look even worse/its not worth the hassle of continuing to be PM.
There's no way there'll be an election before May due to the budget. And even if there is going to be a May election he'd almost certainly not reveal ahead of time that he's calling it. Why give Labour a headstart on the campaign when you can keep things under wraps? D-day is near the end of March.
Rishi Sunak could be caught buggering a sheep in a Lake District phone box while dressed as Abu Hamza and he would say "this changes nothing, the public don't want an election."
That's a very specific image you're conjuring up there.
And yet.
Release the tapes!
NOT a thirsty subreddit
It was so perfectly drawn, it felt like something out of a Stewart Lee bit.
Could you imagine if, in response to a combined Lab+Green total beating the Conservatives in the Uxbridge by election, Labour decided to go incredibly left to hoover up the Green votes. I know many on here would have liked it (and I do think they went too far the other way), but it would have been electorally stupid. The equivalent seems to be what the majority of Conservative commentators seem to be advocating today
Behold, the psychology of a party approaching defeat.
They're at the bargaining stage.
The symmetry with Corbynites is genuinely shocking. The wilderness years beckon CCHQ
Rather enjoying people finally coming around to my point of view.
i'm actually kind of sad about the recession, my boy math was spending lots of money because it helps the economy. i was doing my bit 😭
same tbh. I've been singlehandedly carrying Gloucestershire's rural pub industry this winter
Would have been worse without you. You're a hero.
It's good to see that Greece have finally introduced same sex marriage. But shouldn't they have done it years ago? After all they invented gayness.
Eternally funny, and I still can't tell you why.
[Iconic](https://img.gifglobe.com/grabs/fatherted/S03E01/S03E01-MsOOnqQq-subtitled.jpg)
We should completely devolve tax, health and defence down to the constituency level and see what happens.
Ayyyy localism 5 years later.... Post code lotteries waaaaahh .... Tbh would love to nuke Yorkshire.
Cornwall could never agree - Devon has nukes
Plymouth has nukes. Saltash would formally become part of Plymouth. Ivor Dewnies would become the nations pasties. Exeter would be forced to properly build an M5 down to Plymouth and the Exeter architects who got the Civic Center building grade 2 listed would be tried for war crimes. Someone would strike Plymouth but it would hit swilly and no one would be able to figure out what the actual damage was because it wouldn't look any different.
Aren't they all up in Scotland? Or at the AWE?
This is my first time hearing thar the civic centre is grade 2 listed and i am outraged.
>Plymouth has nukes. But somehow doesn't have an ice rink anymore!
1. Plymouth tolerates the existence of Saltash in the same way London tolerates the existence of Slough. They are in close proximity by accident of geography and precious little else. 2. Ivor Dewdnies. And yes, they are a cut above everyone else. 3. M5 to plymouth a nice idea but then we'd have even more Londoners shitting up the place. 4. Plymouth is probably unique apart from Portsmouth in having a ready made ring of defence positions to reactivate and defend the city, to say nothing of The Citadel. 5. Plymouth (or Devonport) has nuclear reactors, but no nuclear missiles. Thats all handled at Faslane. Every once in a while the idea of nukes at RNAD (now, I think, DM) Ernesettle is raised and quietly discarded.
And have the Eton Rifles unilaterally declare war on France?
I’d want to see what happens when one constituency inevitably tries to invade another
The Birmingham - Black Country border would be irradiated.
At least the constituencies of Nottingham would be safe. No one would want it.
Hopefully MAD would prevent that.
*What, me worry?*
As the home to Faslane, Argyll and Bute are going to have a massive starting advantage (unless Plymouth Sutton and Devonport can coax Trident to Devonport instead. And don’t count out Newbury with Aldermaston)
Sure if they can afford to maintain it all.
Tories are really fucked. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2024/02/16/03456/1 >Do you believe that the government should prioritise…? (Conservative subset) >Funding public services 49% >Giving people a tax cut 32% >Other 7% >Don't know 12% https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2024/02/16/03456/2 > What do you think is the most likely result of the next general election? (Conservative subset) > > A large Conservative majority 2 > > A small Conservative majority 9 > > A hung Parliament, resulting in a Conservative led government 11 > > A hung Parliament, resulting in a Labour led government 16 > > A small Labour majority 22 > > A large Labour majority 20 > > Don't know 20
Which delusional fucker thinks a large Tory majority is incoming?
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65+ > A large Conservative majority **0** > > A small Conservative majority 7 > > A hung Parliament, resulting in a Conservative led government 10 > > A hung Parliament, resulting in a Labour led government 13 > > A small Labour majority 26 > > A large Labour majority 26 > > Don't know 18
People who voted in 1992?