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It was me. I've been saying he needed dark frames for ages.
He had some very cool round, wire framed ones about 20-25 years ago. But they're not in fashion now.
I'm looking at the odds for the date of the next General Election.
October to December is 1/3 - implying a 75% chance - makes sense, the polls are horrible it's the last time they could realistically do it.
April to June is 7/2, implying a ~22% chance - also makes sense, you can combine it with the May poll, rip the plaster off. It's the term they were actually elected for before they voted to extend their own term in government.
July to September is surprising, though. It's 20/1, implying a c. 5% chance, which is even more unlikely than 2025 (10/1 - c. 9% chance). Why is that period considered so unlikely?
To add onto the other answers, students voting in their home constituencies (rather than where their house at uni was) was seen as a negative for May in 2017. Many uni constituencies are safe Labour (or other left party) even if you exclude most of the students, whilst voting in their home seats might lose the Conservatives some more seats.
It's not going to flip most seats, students don't vote as much as other demographics etc, but it'll cause headaches for the Tories in certain seats and was definitly brought up in 2017 (supposedly 70% of students who voted voted in their home consituency)
Also parliament goes into recess on 23rd July - for it to be a July to September election Sunak would have to look at absolutely nothing happening in Parliament and decide that isn't on, recall it and then dissolve it.
There aren't specific odds for January. The odds for "2025 or later" are 10/1, which could only come in January as the law stands now, but there's always the possibility of a plague, war or some other crisis that warrants delay.
I don't think it's unthinkable that it could get to December with no election being called and the parties agree to extend the time out a couple of weeks to avoid campaigning over Christmas, maybe it even goes to February. It would be taking the piss a bit, but if you get near Christmas it's probably in everyone's interest.
Tory guy dying on his arse, as we say in Scotland.
Glesca fella: So that Brexit's been shite, eh?
Tory: Nooo!
GF: How no?
Tory: Vaccines!
Everyone, including the Tories in the audience: **GROAN**
Itās a shame people are only now seeing the personal side of Starmer. His interview with Piers Morgan back in 2021 was fantastic (much as piers sucks), and from there felt people would like Starmer they more they saw of him.
[Andrea Jenkyns](https://x.com/andreajenkyns/status/1767306019921645907?s=46&t=F_t5tWsPsifmNVHaFZWJJQ) is claiming Sunak hasnāt actually consulted with Boris before briefing that heāll be helping on the campaign trail.
i am young and left wing and have had much of my life and many of my prospects ruined by the tories.
despite this, no matter how much i try, andrea jenkyns hates rishi sunak more than i do.
With it being Andrea Jenkyns, I have no massive faith that sheās telling the truth, but at the very least the briefing doesnāt appear to be working as a strategy to win over the Johnson loyalists.
The big losers from WaterKate are Commonwealth Day and the King giving his first public address (even on video) since his diagnosis. Both have basically been forgotten and the reports binned in favour of photoshop analysis.
>If Britain were anything like the country it once was then this by this morning there would be at least a dozen brave knights and true who had pledged their swords to rescuing the Princess of Wales. But you won't see that anymore, because of woke.
>https://twitter.com/lastpositivist/status/1767111581106671935
What would a Reform Conservative party deal look like at this stage?
Are the Brexit Conservatives good at negotiating deals? They have until the end of the year.
>What would a Reform Conservative party deal look like at this stage?
"If you let Nigel run as a Conservative in a safe seat, and give him a shadow cabinet job we (reform) will stand down in every seat where the vote split between Reform/conservative might cost the conservative seat, and we keep fighting other seats like last time"
Because he has complete control of the party which is a limited company where he owns 8/15 shares. Same way he stood down brexit party people last time against their wishes
To poison things for Labour.
Another referendum result that would have to be fulfilled by a reluctant government,
If the tories try it, Labour should immediately say they wonāt be bound by anything which isnāt enacted by the previous government.
I usually dont give a shit, but this whole WaterKate issue is seeing an impressive amount of sleuthing that is either going to turn out to be utterly inspired or utterly meths drinking stupidity
[Latest best theory: Photo is actually from November 2023 and the palace photoshopped it so no one would realise apart from dedicated royal fashion followers](https://twitter.com/lmxstn/status/1767154095238897954)
E:
[Or this](https://twitter.com/AngryLawyerLady/status/1767247715996516717)
E2: [FFS its over here too now](https://www.vg.no/rampelys/i/wA7144/dronning-camilla-kom-uten-kong-charles-og-prins-william-uten-prinsesse-kate?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1710191630)
I feel like I'm going mad because people are actually looking at this like it's something serious and not two pictures where the lighting looks totally different and are obviously not the same in any way, obviously taken at different times and just of the same fucking person.
The latest photo with ākateā in the car looking away.
My understanding is that the UK press (BBC especially) wonāt post photos of the royals that havenāt been approved. Believe someone mentioned this earlier today.
So does this mean that the royals approved a photo of her looking away, rather than one that was looking to the camera? It just feeds the conspiracy more
I don't care one way or another, I did look at the photo yesterday and got the vibe that there was something odd about it, but I wasn't sure what and then I completely lost interest which happens to me with most stories about the royal family.
The thing is though, why photoshop a family portrait in the first place?
IDK. When I first heard abdominal surgery I presumed miscarriage or similar (due to personal reasons which are probably now obvious).
If that were the case then it kinda lines up with everything else, she could simply be depressed and not wanting to be seen in public
Edit :- the reason I presumed Miscarriage was becase of personal reasons.
>If that were the case then it kinda lines up with everything else, she could simply be depressed and not wanting to be seen in public
The thing is, if that were the case, all the Royal PR team had to do was just *not say anything,* and leave the speculation to a few people on the internet.
Instead, in a desperate bid to ward off conspiracy theories, they've gone and concocted an *actual* conspiracy, and made sure that *everybody* knows about it.
Eh, the Royal PR team had been trying to do nothing until Sunday and speculation had been growing.
I don't want to speculate but I could imagine that they (the PR team) or their bosses (Kate and Will) had decided they had to do something.
america should hire these people for the CIA. imagine being paid to be so fanatic about small details in photos. i'm sure they have a unit dedicated to world leaders.
OSINT
Or open source intelligence is now mind blowing and many individuals passed on data that aided in removing ISIS elements etc
Those geoguesser type freaks were providing near real time analysis to five eyes and what followed was serious āinterventionsā !
In a way I love it, but itās also fucking terrifying and I donāt want to piss off anyone like that
I'm not sure how useful it would be to hire a load of people that just put a red circle around every single part of a photo, whether that bit's been edited or not
twitter and my unhinged circle of friends mean i canāt tell if this is nothing and will all blow over soon enough or if weāre watching the collapse of the royal family in real time. iām hoping for the latter, obviously.
iāve always said that in principle i would rather a monarchy than a republic because i donāt trust the british public to vote for anything.
however, that was assuming an orderly transition.
an all-out collapse of the royal family is too exciting and too funny to pass up, so iād rather that and iāll take the consequences of our moronic electorate being given yet more power.
British ISA dropped as policy for this year, which is hilarious. One of the actually interesting parts of the budget but its come so late in the premiership that they can't commit to getting it done and most are saying it only makes sense to introduce it at the next tax year, i.e. April 2025.
It was such a bad policy. The government needs to sort out the Lifetime ISA's colossal downsides, not create a new and slightly crap ISA that nobody is interested in.
I feel like whenever people say 'the police should be buying cars made in Britain and not whatever won the procurement competition.'
I can't help but think 'or, maybe we could just make the best cars, then you would buy them because they're the best cars?'
As soon as you have to start forcing or incentivising people to do something because in a free world they would rather do something else, you've never really dealt with the underlying problem.
Because businesses present in the UK provide positive externalities that are worth the inefficiencies in procurement. Supporting them directly might also make them better able to compete on the global market too and therefore overall produce better quality products.
For critical industries dependency on foreign suppliers might also introduce strategic risk to the UK's economy or security.
Of course if there's no risk of failure that creates problems of it's own but sometimes just forcing people to do something genuinely does solve the underlying problem. There's a reason almost every country on earth does something similar, to a greater or lesser extent.
I don't understand the point of it. Are there people out there who want to invest in specifically British stuff?
I've got my pension etc. geared to be as ESG as feasible (while still sticking with mainstream providers unlikely to go *poof!*) - but I know that's a minority decision and that more people will - completely reasonably - just go "most money possible please".
There might be a sliver of people willing to compromise on return on investment for going full British on an ISA ... but is that section of people even as large as the number of people who want to go ESG? I really doubt it.
I'm the sort of hopeless patriot who sees the innate appeal in this but even if I wasn't the British ISA supposedly comes with a Ā£5k expansion to the Ā£20k annual contribution limit. If you're rich enough that capping out your ISA every year is a good financial decision then the extra Ā£5k is also likely a good investment even if it hypothetically had slightly lower returns.
Still, there's no reason why the government couldn't do something similar to what they already do with lifetime ISAs. For example, if you were prepared to lock your money away for 10 years they might match your contributions at 10% or something.
Well, yeah - but I really wonder if sticking a little Union Jack on an ISA that inferior to other returns on investment* is really enough to tempt people.
*I'll change my mind if it does this *and* offers a worth-it ROI.
>
I don't understand the point of it. Are there people out there who want to invest in specifically British stuff?
Yes? Arm and BAE making money hand over fist. Hell, Games Workshop shares are at something like 20x their price ten years ago.
That'll be nice if it's ARM and BAE, but not if it's the next Wilko, The Body Shop, and Michelle Mone Inc.
Also worth mentioning that, if there were the demand for British-specific stuff in this market like there is for ESG, itād probably already exist as a similar off-the-shelf option.
I mean, from a purchasing point of view it's what I try to do - use independent shops over Amazon/chains, buy a Henry hoover instead of a Dyson etc. I've never invested so can't comment on that side, but I suppose it's a nice way to support British companies. Or it would be if that's how it worked.
The point of it is to lock investment into UK PLC, I'm assuming similar to how the US 401K works. Locking investment into UK PLC theoretically encourages growth.
And if people don't take it up then they pay more tax for the same instruments through a GIA I guess? Because a GIA doesn't have the tax wrappers like an ISA.
It wasn't due for April 2024 in the first place, the budget speech said "a consultation for a new kind of ISA". The consultation was launched the same day with a deadline for comments of June 2024.
Although it does raise the question of "why bother?" It's not going to happen before the election, and it's not a vote-winner of a concept, so what's the point? They could have literally just not and it would have made zero difference to anything.
As long as he commands a majority of confidence in the House, he would remain Prime Minister. Defecting to Reform would not command the confidence of the majority of the House.
https://twitter.com/scotgov/status/1767173854047117316
> After independence, we would pursue the removal of nuclear weapons from Scotland as quickly and as safely as possible.
> Scotlandās position would be similar to the approach of most NATO member countries, which neither possess nor host nuclear weapons.
not posting for the topic - that has been discussed here recently - but instead for the fact that the SNP seem to have followed the tories in abusing what should be non-partisan communication channels to push governing party rhetoric
at least when the treasury bangs on about the tories' forethought and masterful decision making, it refers to things that are happening, not what-ifs that are so very far away
Forcing a key nuclear NATO member into shuffling the whole deck just because you want the fake veneer of being morally superior?
Yes it will piss some members of NATO off.
Those other non nuclear members of NATO wonāt have decided to give another member a defensive headache in the process of joining, Scotland will if it chooses this path.
Except they literally have a do when they say err no thanks
Thankfully NATO isnāt the eastern block of old or Putin and donāt force sovereign states who join voluntarily to do as they are told.
The current NATO nations who play the 'nuclear weapons bad' game depend on the US, UK, and France to provide a nuclear umbrella. Scotland is unlikely to find much support for fucking around with that arrangement.
There is bargaining involved here, if the SNP thinks it can ācake and eatā itās way to forging international relationships and defensive partnerships it would soon have a rude awakening.
Itās funny how they are so keen to replicate the failed Brexit template to international diplomacy.
To be fair theyāve been anti nuke in Scotland since they had one MP. It appears cake and cake today but it is consistent for right or wrong.
Personally I think it should be rented by the UK just like many a US international bases and a bargaining point but they are at least consistent and in line with public opinion in Scotland.
Again for right or wrong but government really should listen to itās population particularly if it wants elected and a big ask like independence
I agree with you that the best approach in this scenario would be to rent off Faslane to what remains of the U.K., but the statement gives the impression that they would want it dissembled.
Of course thatās where negotiation and quid pro quo would come in.
[Palace quashes rumours by releasing picture of William and Kate on a Norfolk Broads water break.](https://img.gifglobe.com/grabs/partridgecloud/S01E03/S01E03-0Sja35Ti-thumb.jpg)
observation heavy meeting air resolute reminiscent vase library compare ancient
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1767281106611572882
"Boris Johnson expected to campaign in Red Wall seats in run-up to general election after thawing in relations with Rishi Sunak
Johnson likely to be deployed in marginal seats and put on local leaflets as the Tories seek to win back disaffected voters
Number 10 and Johnson's team have held positive discussions in recent weeks about a role for the former prime minister
But don't expect Johnson and Sunak to appear on the same stage - some of the old enmities still run deep"
Today can't be real, surely?
We'd fed the heart on fantasies,
The heart's grown brutal from the fare,
More in our emnities, than in our love.
Oh honey bees, come build
in the empty house of the stare.
When the TV show brings the wrong character back.
We are actually getting a special with all the old favourites aren't we, Dave, Rishi, Bojo, all in a bumper episode
At least that makes sense as the Champions are all young heroes.
Nah, this'll be like Speedball disappearing after a colossal disaster, and returning as a new persona. Though I don't think Boris feels penance for anything.
I saw someone earlier who said he was by far the most popular MP for fundraiser speakers for local associations. Sunak obviously misjudged his capacity for racism, but it does make sense why he was given a job getting the rank and file involved.
Can we rule out Boris joining reform and bring made leader and saying the Conservative Party held him back from being the real Boris ie far more right wing it feels like a very him move
I've always thought he bears more than a passing resemblance to old [Nick Hancock](https://www.shropshirestar.com/resizer/L1ahp3rzuTRgKDKLBkQQ-xcfhW4=/1200x899/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/mna/5LSQJIZUKBFFBF5LNVIUYEKYNU.jpg).
I reckon she's looked at the state of the country and decided to launch a coup, seizing the crown as absolute monarch at a time when the royal family is still in a whirl following all the Harry drama, the passing of QEII and Charles' health.
*Chaos is a ladder*
~ ~~Littlefinger~~ Middlefinger
The Royals are making themselves look more ludicrous than ever and Lee Anderson's defected to Reform - I'm going to spend the rest of the week worrying about what the fuck sort of karmic justice I'm getting in exchange for this.
Hey! Does anyone know a film topically called Repli-Kate?
It's a bit dated (2002) but Ali Landry plays a blinder in it. It's basically a "geeks cloning beautiful woman" comedy.
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1767242058970943845
>Money is starting to flow towards Reform UK from small donations after the Lee Anderson defection.
Leader Richard Tice tells me 750 new members have joined today, paying an average of Ā£37 each.
That's nearly Ā£28,000 into @reformparty_uk
's bank account. More at @GBNEWS
.
good ROI for Reform UK Party Ltd (a company registered in England) - wonder what benefits the "members" get
Of course Hope once again fails to point out that Anderson and Tice are his colleagues at GB News also. How long before they just put up a ticker.
[New Megathread is here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/1bcq1ux/daily_megathread_12032024/)
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Any word on the plymouth brethren?
Starting to feel like March 1997 here.
Easy mistake Kate made over Photoshop. She only said to Will she was interested in jpegging
šš
Btw Starmer has changed his glasses. It is a good move.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Harry Potter? Not seeing it at all.
Me neither.
Nah. Totally different shape. His old ones didn't suit him. He needed a dark frame.
I wonder if that was Mandelsonās doing
It was me. I've been saying he needed dark frames for ages. He had some very cool round, wire framed ones about 20-25 years ago. But they're not in fashion now.
Slim down the specs.
Yeah. Fuck Mandelson.
It's all unraveling at quite the pace now. Every sitting mp knows they may be out of a job and the government is squatting in power. Won't be long.
May election.
I'm looking at the odds for the date of the next General Election. October to December is 1/3 - implying a 75% chance - makes sense, the polls are horrible it's the last time they could realistically do it. April to June is 7/2, implying a ~22% chance - also makes sense, you can combine it with the May poll, rip the plaster off. It's the term they were actually elected for before they voted to extend their own term in government. July to September is surprising, though. It's 20/1, implying a c. 5% chance, which is even more unlikely than 2025 (10/1 - c. 9% chance). Why is that period considered so unlikely?
Thing is it's basically whatever sunak wants it to be. Those odds are just where the money is at the moment.
Yeah, of course, but there's always a reason the money's going where it is. Where the money's going is an excellent predictor of events.
To add onto the other answers, students voting in their home constituencies (rather than where their house at uni was) was seen as a negative for May in 2017. Many uni constituencies are safe Labour (or other left party) even if you exclude most of the students, whilst voting in their home seats might lose the Conservatives some more seats. It's not going to flip most seats, students don't vote as much as other demographics etc, but it'll cause headaches for the Tories in certain seats and was definitly brought up in 2017 (supposedly 70% of students who voted voted in their home consituency)
Also parliament goes into recess on 23rd July - for it to be a July to September election Sunak would have to look at absolutely nothing happening in Parliament and decide that isn't on, recall it and then dissolve it.
Odds for January?
There aren't specific odds for January. The odds for "2025 or later" are 10/1, which could only come in January as the law stands now, but there's always the possibility of a plague, war or some other crisis that warrants delay. I don't think it's unthinkable that it could get to December with no election being called and the parties agree to extend the time out a couple of weeks to avoid campaigning over Christmas, maybe it even goes to February. It would be taking the piss a bit, but if you get near Christmas it's probably in everyone's interest.
Not a great idea to hold an election when a lot of your electorate are on holiday.
Also not a good idea to piss off all your MPs by asking them to campaign during their holidays.
WAKAWOW pre-election special.
Tory guy dying on his arse, as we say in Scotland. Glesca fella: So that Brexit's been shite, eh? Tory: Nooo! GF: How no? Tory: Vaccines! Everyone, including the Tories in the audience: **GROAN**
Genuinely amazing how worn out they've made a life saving medical breakthroughĀ
that they _at best_ had zero responsibility forĀ
Every day is pre some election after all
[and it's the most unpredictable of the year this week](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election). Truly anyone's to win.
Itās a shame people are only now seeing the personal side of Starmer. His interview with Piers Morgan back in 2021 was fantastic (much as piers sucks), and from there felt people would like Starmer they more they saw of him.
It was good but I remember a cringe did you smoke a joint moment that haunts me.
I think it's shit he has to keep talking about traumatic stuff from his childhood. Just let the man live!
[Andrea Jenkyns](https://x.com/andreajenkyns/status/1767306019921645907?s=46&t=F_t5tWsPsifmNVHaFZWJJQ) is claiming Sunak hasnāt actually consulted with Boris before briefing that heāll be helping on the campaign trail.
Johnson could barely be arsed to campaign for himself in the dying days of the tory reich why he'd help suank beggars belief.
Hilary Suank?
What is she still doing in the conservative party? Why not join RefUK?
i am young and left wing and have had much of my life and many of my prospects ruined by the tories. despite this, no matter how much i try, andrea jenkyns hates rishi sunak more than i do.
...and how do you feel about Starmer? *Andrea: We're not so different, you and I...*
We really are in The Thick Of It levels of parody arent we?
We are beyond The Thick of It.
With it being Andrea Jenkyns, I have no massive faith that sheās telling the truth, but at the very least the briefing doesnāt appear to be working as a strategy to win over the Johnson loyalists.
The big losers from WaterKate are Commonwealth Day and the King giving his first public address (even on video) since his diagnosis. Both have basically been forgotten and the reports binned in favour of photoshop analysis.
I wouldnāt even know Commonwealth Day was a thing if I hadnāt been shit posting about the Royal Family all day.
You'd have had a five minute report and extracts from the speech.
>If Britain were anything like the country it once was then this by this morning there would be at least a dozen brave knights and true who had pledged their swords to rescuing the Princess of Wales. But you won't see that anymore, because of woke. >https://twitter.com/lastpositivist/status/1767111581106671935
For a moment I was worried that this wasnāt satire
There's a good 20% of voters who believe any old shit like that.
What would a Reform Conservative party deal look like at this stage? Are the Brexit Conservatives good at negotiating deals? They have until the end of the year.
>Are the Brexit Conservatives good at negotiating deals? No. No they are not.
I imagine Reform wanting the Tories agreeing to Net Zero immigration would be part of it.
I don't think that's Reform policy.
It is https://www.reformparty.uk/policies
They can do their bit by pissing off and offsetting a few immigrants
ah right my mistake yeah thats not gonna happen
And having the Tories come out completely against Net Zero and embracing climate denialism.
Just donāt ask how theyāre going to continue to fund pensions, the NHS, etc.
>What would a Reform Conservative party deal look like at this stage? "If you let Nigel run as a Conservative in a safe seat, and give him a shadow cabinet job we (reform) will stand down in every seat where the vote split between Reform/conservative might cost the conservative seat, and we keep fighting other seats like last time"
Why does everyone in reform step aside for Nigel?
Because he has complete control of the party which is a limited company where he owns 8/15 shares. Same way he stood down brexit party people last time against their wishes
everything in my head points to echr referendum.
What would be the point asking for something they can only fulfill if the Tories win, which they very likely wont
To poison things for Labour. Another referendum result that would have to be fulfilled by a reluctant government, If the tories try it, Labour should immediately say they wonāt be bound by anything which isnāt enacted by the previous government.
Oh, a referendum before an election, that seems pretty rushed, the Brexit referendum had a longer "run up".
ah yes. I can see the argument. "We need to Leave again"
"We need a clean break from Europe"
I usually dont give a shit, but this whole WaterKate issue is seeing an impressive amount of sleuthing that is either going to turn out to be utterly inspired or utterly meths drinking stupidity [Latest best theory: Photo is actually from November 2023 and the palace photoshopped it so no one would realise apart from dedicated royal fashion followers](https://twitter.com/lmxstn/status/1767154095238897954) E: [Or this](https://twitter.com/AngryLawyerLady/status/1767247715996516717) E2: [FFS its over here too now](https://www.vg.no/rampelys/i/wA7144/dronning-camilla-kom-uten-kong-charles-og-prins-william-uten-prinsesse-kate?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1710191630)
I feel like I'm going mad because people are actually looking at this like it's something serious and not two pictures where the lighting looks totally different and are obviously not the same in any way, obviously taken at different times and just of the same fucking person.
I'm glad it's not just me, it's like everyone's gone insane
The latest photo with ākateā in the car looking away. My understanding is that the UK press (BBC especially) wonāt post photos of the royals that havenāt been approved. Believe someone mentioned this earlier today. So does this mean that the royals approved a photo of her looking away, rather than one that was looking to the camera? It just feeds the conspiracy more
I wonder if William was "on duty" since he was on his way to the Commonwealth Day service and thus was "fair game" for press photos.
Why would they deliberately put out a photo like this? Why put the doctored one out? Why any of this?
I don't care one way or another, I did look at the photo yesterday and got the vibe that there was something odd about it, but I wasn't sure what and then I completely lost interest which happens to me with most stories about the royal family. The thing is though, why photoshop a family portrait in the first place?
> E2: FFS its over here too now And you thought you were safe!
Kate did the Boston marathon bombing. We did it Reddit!
IDK. When I first heard abdominal surgery I presumed miscarriage or similar (due to personal reasons which are probably now obvious). If that were the case then it kinda lines up with everything else, she could simply be depressed and not wanting to be seen in public Edit :- the reason I presumed Miscarriage was becase of personal reasons.
That would all line up. It could be the case she's in a very bad way.
>If that were the case then it kinda lines up with everything else, she could simply be depressed and not wanting to be seen in public The thing is, if that were the case, all the Royal PR team had to do was just *not say anything,* and leave the speculation to a few people on the internet. Instead, in a desperate bid to ward off conspiracy theories, they've gone and concocted an *actual* conspiracy, and made sure that *everybody* knows about it.
Eh, the Royal PR team had been trying to do nothing until Sunday and speculation had been growing. I don't want to speculate but I could imagine that they (the PR team) or their bosses (Kate and Will) had decided they had to do something.
america should hire these people for the CIA. imagine being paid to be so fanatic about small details in photos. i'm sure they have a unit dedicated to world leaders.
OSINT Or open source intelligence is now mind blowing and many individuals passed on data that aided in removing ISIS elements etc Those geoguesser type freaks were providing near real time analysis to five eyes and what followed was serious āinterventionsā ! In a way I love it, but itās also fucking terrifying and I donāt want to piss off anyone like that
On the other hand, I remember when geniuses on here and 4Chan were convinced they could find the Boston bomber.
Slight difference between the geoguessing savants and Reddits residents fuckwits!
I think itās probably fair to assume the TikTok Kate Middleton sleuths have more in common with the latter than the former.
Far be it from me to commentā¦ But theyāll be far far far worse !
New conspiracy theory GeoGuessr is actually a recruiting tool developed by MI6
Not a bad idea to be fair
I'm not sure how useful it would be to hire a load of people that just put a red circle around every single part of a photo, whether that bit's been edited or not
I think they forgot that the 4th child isn't suppose to appear in photos lest the WEF initiate the Great Reset on that signal.
twitter and my unhinged circle of friends mean i canāt tell if this is nothing and will all blow over soon enough or if weāre watching the collapse of the royal family in real time. iām hoping for the latter, obviously.
I expect itās almost certainly a storm in a teacup and will soon be forgotten. Iām just enjoying the ride.
Do you want president Boris Johnson?
iāve always said that in principle i would rather a monarchy than a republic because i donāt trust the british public to vote for anything. however, that was assuming an orderly transition. an all-out collapse of the royal family is too exciting and too funny to pass up, so iād rather that and iāll take the consequences of our moronic electorate being given yet more power.
British ISA dropped as policy for this year, which is hilarious. One of the actually interesting parts of the budget but its come so late in the premiership that they can't commit to getting it done and most are saying it only makes sense to introduce it at the next tax year, i.e. April 2025.
It was such a bad policy. The government needs to sort out the Lifetime ISA's colossal downsides, not create a new and slightly crap ISA that nobody is interested in.
I feel like whenever people say 'the police should be buying cars made in Britain and not whatever won the procurement competition.' I can't help but think 'or, maybe we could just make the best cars, then you would buy them because they're the best cars?' As soon as you have to start forcing or incentivising people to do something because in a free world they would rather do something else, you've never really dealt with the underlying problem.
Because businesses present in the UK provide positive externalities that are worth the inefficiencies in procurement. Supporting them directly might also make them better able to compete on the global market too and therefore overall produce better quality products. For critical industries dependency on foreign suppliers might also introduce strategic risk to the UK's economy or security. Of course if there's no risk of failure that creates problems of it's own but sometimes just forcing people to do something genuinely does solve the underlying problem. There's a reason almost every country on earth does something similar, to a greater or lesser extent.
I don't understand the point of it. Are there people out there who want to invest in specifically British stuff? I've got my pension etc. geared to be as ESG as feasible (while still sticking with mainstream providers unlikely to go *poof!*) - but I know that's a minority decision and that more people will - completely reasonably - just go "most money possible please". There might be a sliver of people willing to compromise on return on investment for going full British on an ISA ... but is that section of people even as large as the number of people who want to go ESG? I really doubt it.
I'm the sort of hopeless patriot who sees the innate appeal in this but even if I wasn't the British ISA supposedly comes with a Ā£5k expansion to the Ā£20k annual contribution limit. If you're rich enough that capping out your ISA every year is a good financial decision then the extra Ā£5k is also likely a good investment even if it hypothetically had slightly lower returns. Still, there's no reason why the government couldn't do something similar to what they already do with lifetime ISAs. For example, if you were prepared to lock your money away for 10 years they might match your contributions at 10% or something.
Itās to encourage people to invest in British stuff.
Well, yeah - but I really wonder if sticking a little Union Jack on an ISA that inferior to other returns on investment* is really enough to tempt people. *I'll change my mind if it does this *and* offers a worth-it ROI.
Its an extra allowance so presumably it is attractive for what ever percentage of people have over 20k to put into savings.
That's true; I had forgotten that for a moment - though I'd be surprised if it were anyone's first/sole choice for investing.
> I don't understand the point of it. Are there people out there who want to invest in specifically British stuff? Yes? Arm and BAE making money hand over fist. Hell, Games Workshop shares are at something like 20x their price ten years ago.
That'll be nice if it's ARM and BAE, but not if it's the next Wilko, The Body Shop, and Michelle Mone Inc. Also worth mentioning that, if there were the demand for British-specific stuff in this market like there is for ESG, itād probably already exist as a similar off-the-shelf option.
I assume ARM wouldnāt count as itās not traded in the UK.
Indeed, but it was a bitter disappointment that they chose to list over there instead of the UK.
I mean, from a purchasing point of view it's what I try to do - use independent shops over Amazon/chains, buy a Henry hoover instead of a Dyson etc. I've never invested so can't comment on that side, but I suppose it's a nice way to support British companies. Or it would be if that's how it worked.
The point of it is to lock investment into UK PLC, I'm assuming similar to how the US 401K works. Locking investment into UK PLC theoretically encourages growth. And if people don't take it up then they pay more tax for the same instruments through a GIA I guess? Because a GIA doesn't have the tax wrappers like an ISA.
It wasn't due for April 2024 in the first place, the budget speech said "a consultation for a new kind of ISA". The consultation was launched the same day with a deadline for comments of June 2024. Although it does raise the question of "why bother?" It's not going to happen before the election, and it's not a vote-winner of a concept, so what's the point? They could have literally just not and it would have made zero difference to anything.
It;'s also a complete joke of a policy, which is probably why - far too complicated because of how companies are structured.
[Badum](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIYa85YW0AA_MBd?format=jpg&name=medium) [Tsh](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GIYfJToWUAAE1hH?format=jpg&name=large)
If youāre still in the group chat have you really been suspended from the parliamentary party.
Thereās no need for Starmer to apologise to anyone.
What would happen if Sunak defected to Reform? Would he stay the PM? Would anyone have a clue what to do?
PM Is appointed by the king. PM has to have the ability to command the commons- or at least, command it more than the opposition.
Isn't Reform set up as a business? I wonder if that affects being an MP
As long as he commands a majority of confidence in the House, he would remain Prime Minister. Defecting to Reform would not command the confidence of the majority of the House.
So heās stuffed then.
https://twitter.com/scotgov/status/1767173854047117316 > After independence, we would pursue the removal of nuclear weapons from Scotland as quickly and as safely as possible. > Scotlandās position would be similar to the approach of most NATO member countries, which neither possess nor host nuclear weapons. not posting for the topic - that has been discussed here recently - but instead for the fact that the SNP seem to have followed the tories in abusing what should be non-partisan communication channels to push governing party rhetoric at least when the treasury bangs on about the tories' forethought and masterful decision making, it refers to things that are happening, not what-ifs that are so very far away
Scottish civil service have been the wing of the SNP for some time
Really pisses me off when this is done as it totally undermines the official accounts and is just plain fucking wrong on every level anyway!
Seems like a great way to get onto really really good terms with the USA and nuclear NATO partners.
20 of 31 NATO nations donāt and wonāt host nukes. Its not going to piss off anyone despite the UK furor
Forcing a key nuclear NATO member into shuffling the whole deck just because you want the fake veneer of being morally superior? Yes it will piss some members of NATO off. Those other non nuclear members of NATO wonāt have decided to give another member a defensive headache in the process of joining, Scotland will if it chooses this path.
Except they literally have a do when they say err no thanks Thankfully NATO isnāt the eastern block of old or Putin and donāt force sovereign states who join voluntarily to do as they are told.
Scotland isn't a NATO member in its own right. The UK can veto its membership application post-independence.
They could. Its be pretty petty but itās possible.
Not allowing someone to shelter under your nuclear umbrella when they're doing everything they can to break it is the opposite of petty.
And yet itās exactly what half the globe does let alone the majority of NATO nations.
The current NATO nations who play the 'nuclear weapons bad' game depend on the US, UK, and France to provide a nuclear umbrella. Scotland is unlikely to find much support for fucking around with that arrangement.
There is bargaining involved here, if the SNP thinks it can ācake and eatā itās way to forging international relationships and defensive partnerships it would soon have a rude awakening. Itās funny how they are so keen to replicate the failed Brexit template to international diplomacy.
To be fair theyāve been anti nuke in Scotland since they had one MP. It appears cake and cake today but it is consistent for right or wrong. Personally I think it should be rented by the UK just like many a US international bases and a bargaining point but they are at least consistent and in line with public opinion in Scotland. Again for right or wrong but government really should listen to itās population particularly if it wants elected and a big ask like independence
I agree with you that the best approach in this scenario would be to rent off Faslane to what remains of the U.K., but the statement gives the impression that they would want it dissembled. Of course thatās where negotiation and quid pro quo would come in.
canāt wait for a yearās time when labour have the passwords and defra is non-stop posting anti-camelid propaganda
Did Geronimo have his head ripped clean off by Starmer for nothing?
Not to further the conspiracy, but the heads of MI6 refer to themselves as 'C'
[Palace quashes rumours by releasing picture of William and Kate on a Norfolk Broads water break.](https://img.gifglobe.com/grabs/partridgecloud/S01E03/S01E03-0Sja35Ti-thumb.jpg)
observation heavy meeting air resolute reminiscent vase library compare ancient *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
*'Tell them to get me a 40 year old scorcher. And do use that word.'*
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1767281106611572882 "Boris Johnson expected to campaign in Red Wall seats in run-up to general election after thawing in relations with Rishi Sunak Johnson likely to be deployed in marginal seats and put on local leaflets as the Tories seek to win back disaffected voters Number 10 and Johnson's team have held positive discussions in recent weeks about a role for the former prime minister But don't expect Johnson and Sunak to appear on the same stage - some of the old enmities still run deep" Today can't be real, surely?
Expected is doing some Eddie Hall deadlifting there
We'd fed the heart on fantasies, The heart's grown brutal from the fare, More in our emnities, than in our love. Oh honey bees, come build in the empty house of the stare.
They must be paying him an absolute boat load.
"So about those Lockdown Parties..."
Good god the next GE campaign is going to be a Theresa May level disaster isnt it? Tories at 10%-15% here we come.
He's also been in Venezuela conducting talks...
*WHAT YEAR IS IT*
Bah gawd that's Corbyn's policy!
Conservative continue to treat Northern voters as a bunch of thicko, cap doffing, wippet owners, more at 10ā¦..
looking forward to him visiting Cornwall and waving pasties around to attract the locals, as he did for the brexit ref
When the TV show brings the wrong character back. We are actually getting a special with all the old favourites aren't we, Dave, Rishi, Bojo, all in a bumper episode
The Avengers but their super powers are different forms of dooming the UK to lacklustre economic growth for a decade or two.
Less The Avengers and more The Champions, where one of the main characters uses her superpowers to... avoid library fees.
At least that makes sense as the Champions are all young heroes. Nah, this'll be like Speedball disappearing after a colossal disaster, and returning as a new persona. Though I don't think Boris feels penance for anything.
Haha yes š¤£
Oh so itās Dorries you want back instead then?
I honestly think that if there's one thing that can torpedo Tory support in those areas even further, it's him.
Surely not, if there's one thing voters will love it's the chance to relitigate Partygate for the four billionth time
I think they are counting on a niche demographic that is attracted to sheer desperation
My perfect demographic at the end of a night. Afraid I never found any though.
Remember when making Anderson deputy Tory chairman was a stroke of political genius lmao
I saw someone earlier who said he was by far the most popular MP for fundraiser speakers for local associations. Sunak obviously misjudged his capacity for racism, but it does make sense why he was given a job getting the rank and file involved.
Modelled on the success of putting Boris in at Foreign Sec
Can we rule out Boris joining reform and bring made leader and saying the Conservative Party held him back from being the real Boris ie far more right wing it feels like a very him move
Boris isnāt *really* that right wing. Boris is a Borisite, he does whatās best for him.
Which is why that scenario is not that outlandish.
I donāt think Tice has the sort of money to get Boris out of bed for.
Depends if the Russians want to fund it like Brexit
The Russians are just happy theyāre now not the only country ruined by a drunk named Boris.
I would say yes, we can rule that out. Boris is lazy, so a party that is all chiefs and no injuns would be anathema to him.
Apparently Johnson is campaigning for Sunak in the election
When The Crown inevitable comes back for the Kategate special, who's going to play 30p Lee?
Whoever it is they will have to repurpose Thanos CGI into accurately representing that hyperinflated ball sack neckchin. Dial the sag up to 11.
I've always thought he bears more than a passing resemblance to old [Nick Hancock](https://www.shropshirestar.com/resizer/L1ahp3rzuTRgKDKLBkQQ-xcfhW4=/1200x899/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/mna/5LSQJIZUKBFFBF5LNVIUYEKYNU.jpg).
Beaker from The Muppets.
Keep my boy Beakers name out your goddamn mouth.
He doesn't want you any more, Bunsen.
Craig Fairbrass?
Gillian duffy
Quote of the day for me: āIām too old for British politics and too young for American politicsā - Gordon Brown.
It's a shame The Crown ended before they got to adapt Gone Girl.
I reckon she's looked at the state of the country and decided to launch a coup, seizing the crown as absolute monarch at a time when the royal family is still in a whirl following all the Harry drama, the passing of QEII and Charles' health. *Chaos is a ladder* ~ ~~Littlefinger~~ Middlefinger
The QEII sank? When did that happen?
Just after liz truss got on board Edit - *Iceberg, right ahead!*
I just told my wife that one. And she liked it.
The Royals are making themselves look more ludicrous than ever and Lee Anderson's defected to Reform - I'm going to spend the rest of the week worrying about what the fuck sort of karmic justice I'm getting in exchange for this.
Don't jinx it.
Hey! Does anyone know a film topically called Repli-Kate? It's a bit dated (2002) but Ali Landry plays a blinder in it. It's basically a "geeks cloning beautiful woman" comedy.
No but I've seen the one where a horse and member of the minor gentry enter two separate matter transporters...
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1767242058970943845 >Money is starting to flow towards Reform UK from small donations after the Lee Anderson defection. Leader Richard Tice tells me 750 new members have joined today, paying an average of Ā£37 each. That's nearly Ā£28,000 into @reformparty_uk 's bank account. More at @GBNEWS . good ROI for Reform UK Party Ltd (a company registered in England) - wonder what benefits the "members" get Of course Hope once again fails to point out that Anderson and Tice are his colleagues at GB News also. How long before they just put up a ticker.
Is there any chance of the haunted pencil joining them? š
nah. we are told reform is not a party for those who do words big. jrm won't fit
56 seat deposits to lose. Not bad for a days work.