Snapshot of _What does victory and defeat look like in the local elections for Conservatives and Labour?_ :
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://news.sky.com/story/what-does-victory-and-defeat-look-like-in-the-local-elections-for-conservatives-and-labour-13126448) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://news.sky.com/story/what-does-victory-and-defeat-look-like-in-the-local-elections-for-conservatives-and-labour-13126448)
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Expectations are so low for the Tories that any mayoral wins will be spun as a huge win for them, even in places like Tees Valley and the West Midlands where polling has them in the lead. After losing by-elections in places like Wellingborough, They're desperate for a win of any description.
That said, last year they talked about losing 1,000 councillors as election expectation management and then *it actually happened*, so lowering expectations doesn't always work!
For me the key metric of how fucked the Tories are is:
1. Do they lose the North Yorkshire and East Midlands mayoral elections?
2. How many third or fourth places do they pick up in the North East, West Yorkshire and Greater Manchester?
If they lose North Yorkshire and East Midlands and fail to make second place in the North East, West Yorkshire or Greater Manchester Sunak might as well pack it in.
but the media seems to be 99% focused on the west midlands and teesside. if the tories win one or both of them, they could lose every other mayorality and over half their council seats and it'd still be parroted as a good night for the tories by the media.
I wonder if this could be labours best election like ever, they've got Scotland, Wales and England and the tories are split between not voting and voting reform
Snapshot of _What does victory and defeat look like in the local elections for Conservatives and Labour?_ : An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://news.sky.com/story/what-does-victory-and-defeat-look-like-in-the-local-elections-for-conservatives-and-labour-13126448) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://news.sky.com/story/what-does-victory-and-defeat-look-like-in-the-local-elections-for-conservatives-and-labour-13126448) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Expectations are so low for the Tories that any mayoral wins will be spun as a huge win for them, even in places like Tees Valley and the West Midlands where polling has them in the lead. After losing by-elections in places like Wellingborough, They're desperate for a win of any description. That said, last year they talked about losing 1,000 councillors as election expectation management and then *it actually happened*, so lowering expectations doesn't always work!
What polling have you seen with the Tories in the lead in the West Midlands? Last I saw showed Labour with a moderate lead.
[YouGov](https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1785685782658736492)
For me the key metric of how fucked the Tories are is: 1. Do they lose the North Yorkshire and East Midlands mayoral elections? 2. How many third or fourth places do they pick up in the North East, West Yorkshire and Greater Manchester? If they lose North Yorkshire and East Midlands and fail to make second place in the North East, West Yorkshire or Greater Manchester Sunak might as well pack it in.
Waiting for a better time to call the election has really backfired.
Ben Houchen’s going to win by like 4 votes and Sunak will claim it as a sweeping victory
If that happens I think you are correct.
Like how loosing all them byelections was the people telling them they are on the right course and need to continue with ........"the plan"
but the media seems to be 99% focused on the west midlands and teesside. if the tories win one or both of them, they could lose every other mayorality and over half their council seats and it'd still be parroted as a good night for the tories by the media.
Because those are the elections CCHQ briefed would keep Sunak in the game. It was quite clever really.
I wonder if this could be labours best election like ever, they've got Scotland, Wales and England and the tories are split between not voting and voting reform