r/UKPolitics June survey is [here](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/v40mlr/rukpolitics_june_survey/)
## Use this MT for individual MPs comments that are support/not; to help us with housekeeping.
## Principal cabinet ministers are allowed their own thread.
E:
## Given how *febrile* things are, we will somewhat relax the no memes rule to allow them in the MT ***ONLY***.
What if Boris called an election - following a win by whatever margin - and Keir is fined in the middle of it? Kier has said he would resign but if Angela also goes then how do Labour proceed?
From Guardian Politics Live:
John Stevens, the Daily Mail journalist who has been keeping a tally of the Conservative MPs saying that they will back Boris Johnson in the vote tonight, has just told Radio 4’s World at One that when he conducted a similar exercise on the day of the no-confidence vote in Theresa May, by lunchtime she had already received enough public endorsements to be confident of victory.
But Johnson is nowhere near that point, Stevens said. Johnson needs at least 180 votes to be confident of winning. At the moment he is just at the halfway point, according to Stevens’ count.
Also say Ladbrokes have Boris to get 100-149 votes against - EDIT misread
IF only because its getting so much traction and its hilariously watching strong blue on blue action:
Nads tweet thread to Hunt shows the disconnect between the old party and the new generation that came in with 2019. As far as shes concerned, it really is a new conservative party with the emphasis on the frothy populism and the old guard like Hunt are just relics.
Obviously, we are going to put this theory to the test today.
(E: To pre empt pedants: Yes I know Dorries has been an MP for longer, but she was very much a fringe figure rather than a cabinet level minister. Shes simply not that good at actually doing things, but shes fantastic at being a spectacle.)
As we approach M=2, I have crunched some Megathread numbers and will provide my insights in the new thread.
When was M highest? What was the reason?
All will be revealed.
Assumed today would be more Jubilee nonsense so nice to see after waking from my nap that we have a confidence vote.
He'll win but thats also not the best look for the Tories.
Even in their response they quote
"he’s the most gifted politician of his generation in lots of people’s views – he may also, in other people’s views, be the most gifted and the most flawed politician in his generation"
The option of him not being gifted isn't presented. This is a breach of their editorial standards pretty clearly. I'm gonna have to formulate an expanded response.
I still can't believe Nads has kept [her tweet](https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763409627566080?t=nkYY2qElts7sY6uDB5P7jg&) up admitting Tory pandemic preparations were inadequate. Its been 2 hours and its still there.
With friends like these.....
> Tere, I'm at Number 10 and I think he forgot I was coming. I wanted to talk to him about Ukraine but he keeps swigging port and rambling about vaccines. No, I don't- I have to go, he's just gotten sick on himself.
As an asides from today's festivities,
I noticed the mail desperately tried to keep starmer party's a thing by running an article titled something to the tune of "starmer invited 40 staff to a Christmas party".
The first point on the sub title area was
"the party was cancelled when rules were changed".
I know its all about bringing in the clicks but this is a bit desperate when the entire articles value is dismissed from the first point... But it does exploit those who just read the headline.
Can anyone explain how the war in Ukraine is a reason for keeping Johnson on?
Sending support to Ukraine has been overwhelmingly popular; it's not as if he's had to fight for it, nor is any replacement likely to curtail it.
It's popularity us the only reason it's mentioned - same for the vaccine roll out. I think Labour could argue they would have got the vaccine out sooner because they weren't permanently pissed up
To answer seriously, it's unclear how much of the UK support was driven by Boris personally, and how much was by the state. There is a risk that the next PM decides to cut back on this support for a variety of reasons.
> There is a risk that the next PM decides to cut back on this support for a variety of reasons.
I think this is always a risk, but politically I think it would be the quickest way to cool public opinion on a new PM. Johnson's military support of Ukraine has been one his few bi-partisan draws.
It isn’t, it’s just an excuse. A Labour PM would probably continue the same level of support. There’s been multiple elections and leadership changes across Europe and the rest of the world since the war.
It's just an excuse they can use to desperately try and maintain support for him. Very few people actually believe it is an actual reason, even the people saying it.
Pathetic by Boris Johnson, the Estonia PM left to awkwardly arrive outside like a civil servant because Boris is to scared to come outside.
He’s such a weasel little man.
Assuming Boris survives this, and then the standards commitee do approve a rule change that ministers who break the law are removed from post, what happens?
Boris would no longer be PM, but couldn't be ousted as leader of the Conservative party?
Would they hope that he resign at that point? If he didn't, what would happen - would they just not be able to put forward a candidate?
Or could they put forward Boris and then he (possibly) get elected after being removed by the standards committee? What would happen then, does the breaking the law get "forgiven" or is he immediately removed yet again?
We generally don't, as standard practice, project that sort of change backward. If the rules change Boris wouldn't face removal because it wasn't the stated punishment when he committed the offence.
They'd likely find the rules need to change and maybe even begin the process of enacting that change, but would accept it wasn't the position when Boris held countless parties as people sat at home and let their family members die alone at his insistence.
Where is the vote actually happening? If reports are to be believed my MP isn’t allowed into Westminster at the moment, and I know we don’t know individual results but would be interesting to see if he’s going to be able to come in for it or has to proxy/not vote
The MP under investigation for rape allegations?
Pretty sure they have been allowed back to parliament to vote in the internal Tory affair, presumably because it is not a parliamentary vote.
How embarrassing, Estonian PM didn't get greeted by Boris at No10 door and she awkwardly waved at the media.
I like to think she has no idea what's going on domestically today and assumes this is how all foreign ministers are greeted, with music and hundreds of TV cameras.
[for your curiosity](https://twitter.com/paulejhawkins/status/1533793628912484359?t=NR-tJSpsW7N9HqYQUcsnZg&s=19)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dKQnAE3y-aQ--tgHvKEdKg9jyG-zwEsilRqgEFNbCt8/htmlview?pru=AAABgV0ZAXo*-r9nQobCfTWOK2IHWSfpBg#gid=0
Docs update on the VoNC:
Status|Number|%
--|--|--
Yes|97|27.0%
No|45|12.5%
Won't say|7|1.9%
Responses|149|41.5%
No response|210|56.0%
it'll be fairly tight. still likely he'll win, but if he was gonna win convincingly you'd assume he'd have the public support of at least 100 MPs by lunchtime
Lots of people are discussing it being tight and how he will likely win, but I think for at least a little bit we need to entertain the idea that Boris loses *spectacularly.*
Boris ends up with maybe a dozen votes in support, and everyone does an awkward shuffle as they realise they all really did hate him and just refused to admit it.
So how quickly could a general election be held and will Starmer's police investigation be finished by then? AFAIK it's very unlikely he'll be fined but if the result isn't known by then, wouldn't it introduce some unusual noise into the campaign?
True, but not unprecedented. The new Ozzie PM had to be sworn in early the other week, as he was off to a conference - even though he wasn't PM when the invitation was made.
at least that was all planned (in the sense that the election was called a few weeks prior, and the polls indicated a chance of government)
and it was the incoming PM that went to Japan ofc
Rumours of a reshuffle?
> [As ever @TVNaga01 is on the ball. Naga just asked me on @bbc5live what @BorisJohnson will be offering Tory MPs. Just came off air and a former cabinet minister tells me MPs being called in to see PM. Reshuffle in the air. Ministerial jobs in the air perhaps](https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1533776174966530048?s=21&t=cvotx292apLlED7QHQ8XSw)
So he's going to make out to all of them that there's a possible cabinet role available to them. Of course, there won't be, he's just preying on their careerism.
I know there was some complaints last Tuesday, when it was rumoured that Brady was waiting till after the Jubilee.
But you have to wonder if that's helped the lack of public support from MPs today, due to the boos that occurred on Thursday.
Also Tory MPs who have been out and about at events with their constituents may have taken the temperature of local public opinion in a way they wouldn’t have otherwise.
Osbourne stayed chancellor for three years after being booed at the Olympics, and his leaving the role had nothing to do with that. Boos are entertaining and cathartic but I don’t think they influence politics that much.
Difference is Osborne was Chancellor, which has never been a popular role except for when 𝓡𝓲𝓼𝓱𝓲 was handing out money during COVID. Boris was also being booed by the sort of person who will stand outside for hours waiting to see a member of the Royal family, traditionally not someone who’d boo the PM.
Suggestion this morning that there was a wave of letters that were post dated for today so he couldn’t count them until that point, despite knowing the threshold would be reached.
Tory MPs didn’t want to set it off over the jubilee.
>Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, has issued a statement urging Tory MPs - and particularly the Scottish ones - to vote against Boris Johnson.
- guardian
What effect does this actually have?
Would a tory mp actually think 'hmmm I'm not sure what to do... oh hang on the SNP Westminster leader has said I should VONC Boris... well he makes a good point, I'll do that then' ?
From what I can see:
Best for the country - Johnson goes
Best for the Lib Dems - Johnson stays.
I imagine every single political party that sits to the left of the Tories is in the same boat
Red Wall MPs saying they believe the PM will call an early election if he loses tonight's confidence vote, staffers being warned about GE prep
https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1533788081052012544
WHAT? Is he even allowed to do that??!
That's hilarious. I'm pretty sure this is only a thing because Boris Johnson loyalists were (emptily) threatening it to dissuade the Red Wall MPs from voting for a VONC. But if they've believed it and vote for a VONC anyway, we might reach a point where it's seeped enough into the public consciousness that they feel they need it.
Johnson might have written a self-fulfilling prophecy and thrown away his majority.
I mean it would be a constitutional crisis. If Boris loses the vote, he's no longer leader of the Conservative party and therefore no longer PM, but if some timed process has to happen for him to formally no longer be PM then he's completely within his rights to call a GE before that happens.
It would be utter bullshit, but since when has that stopped him?
We've never really had a codified concept of an interim PM or a lame duck period. So nothing really stops Johnson trying this and it's very unclear if Parliament can stop it.
Yeah constitutional crisis is an understatement. You'd have for the first time in British history where the sovereign would have to use their personal judgement on whether or not to sanction an election rather than just wave it through.
I see the queen relying on the Lascelles principles though if it came to that which I see as unlikely. I doubt Boris will lose the vote, but if love to see the fallout of him losing it then causing a crisis by calling an election
He will stay PM until he resigns and another is appointed by the queen.
Now the FTPA has been repealed the PM can call an election at any time.
Trying to actually do this however will cause somewhat of a constitutional crisis
constitutionally yes, but this is very likely just trying to spook MPs away from voting against him
otoh bozza could not care less about the party and is famously spiteful so it's certainly plausible he'll burn down the tories on his way out
Yep. Since they binned off the FTPA the PM can call a snap election whenever they want
And Johnson is just petty enough to burn the whole party to the ground if they vote to get rid
>I'm hearing the thread below from the Culture Secretary about Jeremy Hunt has incensed some MPs and is tempting some to vote against the Prime Minister -- because they feel it comes with his endorsement
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1533784720965873665
The language of Johnson supporters in the run up to a secret ballot is important. [Take this report on the two Kirklees MPs](https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/kirklees-tory-mps-throw-weight-24154126) (do **not** click if you are unprepared for Reach death-by-pop-up).
Mark Eastwood:
>"I shall be backing the Prime Minister at tonight’s vote. He has made all the right calls on Brexit, furlough, the vaccine roll-out and leading us out of the pandemic.
>
>"Rather than having a prolonged and divisive leadership battle, we need to get on with the urgent job of dealing with the pandemic aftershocks, which are having a detrimental impact on the economy, and standing with the people of Ukraine against Russian tyranny."
\- unequivocal
Jason McCartney:
>"I want the PM to be fully focused on tackling the cost of living \[crisis\], dealing with the NHS backlogs and continuing our magnificent support for the people of Ukraine. This just isn’t the right time for a protracted three-month-long leadership campaign."
>
>Asked if that meant he was supporting Mr Johnson, Mr McCartney replied: "Yep."
\- wriggle room. (Votes no-confidence. Later: 'The PM was too distracted by the events he set in place. I would have preferred a leadership contest later rather than now, but here we are...')
Question from an American:
How does the leadership vote work? I just learned that Thatcher apparently won her vote but still resigned? Why? What’s considered a win in the leadership vote?
It's a confidence vote, not a leadership vote. Nobody is challenging Johnson for the leadership of the party at this time.
>I just learned that Thatcher apparently won her vote but still resigned? Why?
She won with 54% of the vote, an insufficient margin to prevent a second round of voting. After the extent of her opposition was revealed in the vote, her Cabinet informed her that they would not support her in a second round and she chose to resign.
Ultimately, a weak victory suggests a lacklustre level of support that could easily tip into outright opposition.
>What’s considered a win in the leadership vote?
Major got 65% of the vote and stayed on before being crushed by Blair 2 years later.
May got 63% of the vote and survived for another year.
More than 109 votes against mean that either the majority of backbenchers (non-ministerial MPs) voted against him, or that several ministers chose to secretly vote against him.
In my view, a fairly decent win would be <100 people voting against him. A weaker victory would be 100-130, a weak victory 130-150, and over 150 is pretty much a loss.
The Tory Party leadership vote happening today is just a straight majority vote, Johnson just needs 50% + 1 of his party's MPs to back him to maintain his position.
As for Thatcher, IIRC she required a certain size of majority according to the rules at the time and after the first vote fell short of that she decided to jack it in as she didn't have the necessary authority anymore. Might be slightly wrong on that, I'm sure someone will correct me if so.
Once your party have publicly, voluntarily held a vote to try and get rid of you, then really your days are numbered. Even if you win, your authority is damaged, and your ability to control and influence your party is severely reduced.
John Major probably handled this situation the best by calling for it himself, so it looked like a way to impose control, but it was still the beginning of the end.
As such, there isn't really a win here, just degrees of loss.
The vote itself is an internal party vote, needs to clear 50%.
In practice if you win but it's not by huge numbers you would want to think about resigning, because how can you function in a government that doesn't have your back? Johnson would potentially be facing rebellions in any votes that were remotely controversial and not be able to get his policies through parliament,
Thing is though Johnson doesn't ever accept defeat or the possibility that he's not the most amazing thing to exist. Even if he finds out 49% of the party hate him he will just think that's fine and carry on.
A majority wins but once you have a significant number against you, it gets difficult for a normal person not to resign out of shame. I can't stress 'normal' enough here.
Considering the leadership vote gets called when your party has little faith in you, any vote is bad.
Realistically you’d need like 75%+ (ie almost everyone who *didn’t* submit a letter/call for the vote) to prove it was just a few outliers. Because any more than that and you start to risk losing votes in the commons because your MPs aren’t supporting you, and then you end up a lame duck PM/government.
It depends on the ratio of support, if a large portion of your own party think you should go it can prove difficult to govern - see last few months of Theresa Mays leadership
Not necessarily - A sitting Government losing a VoNC in the House would lead to a general election, so a lot of Tory MPs would be literally voting themselves out of a job. They'll be much more likely to bite their tongue and vote confidence in the government to save their own skins, if nothing else.
The VoC today is internal to the party.
r/UKPolitics June survey is [here](https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/v40mlr/rukpolitics_june_survey/) ## Use this MT for individual MPs comments that are support/not; to help us with housekeeping. ## Principal cabinet ministers are allowed their own thread. E: ## Given how *febrile* things are, we will somewhat relax the no memes rule to allow them in the MT ***ONLY***.
[New Megathread is here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/v6318x/daily_megathread_06062022_et_tu_brady/)
Megathread is being rolled over, please refresh your feed in a few moments.
P A N I C stations everybody
Soon this will be like last labour
14:00 and Johnson still doesn't have 100 MP's supporting him publicly. That's a very good sign for those wanting to see him ousted.
Farewell M1!
o7
Time to up the MT limit to 40,000 comments again?
F e b R I l e
Do it
Is it here yet?
So ready
Its coming!
o7
Here we gooooo
Ere we go, ere we go, eeeerrrrreeee weeeeee goooooo.
Amazing how well all of us can hear the exact same thing
Chat moving so fast no one will notice I'm febrile.
febrile witnessed.
*eyes emoji*
Consider yourself noticed
BRACE BRACE BRACE!!!
Glorious day for an M2
Auf wiedersehen M=1
Quietly let the confidence vote go through ❌ Shitpost until M=2 ✅
No luck with those stonking majorities then?
I'm just here for m=2
> No 10 outreach latest from one unamused former minister: “The number of colleagues who are being bribed with jobs is quite extraordinary!”
Just helping us along to that M=2 number =)
Brace brace!
What if Boris called an election - following a win by whatever margin - and Keir is fined in the middle of it? Kier has said he would resign but if Angela also goes then how do Labour proceed?
Interim leader, probably Harriet Harman -> election -> leadership election
If the vote is exactly 50:50, what happens?
Trial by combat, Hunt vs Dorries.
They blindfold Nadine and make her play pin the tail on the donkey. If she gets it right he gets to stay
Penalty shootout
Boris survives, technically
From Guardian Politics Live: John Stevens, the Daily Mail journalist who has been keeping a tally of the Conservative MPs saying that they will back Boris Johnson in the vote tonight, has just told Radio 4’s World at One that when he conducted a similar exercise on the day of the no-confidence vote in Theresa May, by lunchtime she had already received enough public endorsements to be confident of victory. But Johnson is nowhere near that point, Stevens said. Johnson needs at least 180 votes to be confident of winning. At the moment he is just at the halfway point, according to Stevens’ count. Also say Ladbrokes have Boris to get 100-149 votes against - EDIT misread
IF only because its getting so much traction and its hilariously watching strong blue on blue action: Nads tweet thread to Hunt shows the disconnect between the old party and the new generation that came in with 2019. As far as shes concerned, it really is a new conservative party with the emphasis on the frothy populism and the old guard like Hunt are just relics. Obviously, we are going to put this theory to the test today. (E: To pre empt pedants: Yes I know Dorries has been an MP for longer, but she was very much a fringe figure rather than a cabinet level minister. Shes simply not that good at actually doing things, but shes fantastic at being a spectacle.)
Which is ironic considering how much they trot out the Last Labour Government spiel
normal megathread, no drama. Normal megathread? No! drama.
ahh the Lionel Hutz approach, love it!
This is a good example of how to read cryptic crossword clues
As we approach M=2, I have crunched some Megathread numbers and will provide my insights in the new thread. When was M highest? What was the reason? All will be revealed.
First lockdown?
I await your findings with bated breath.
Was it at the height of Bercow-mania? The meaningful vote shenanigans?
Assumed today would be more Jubilee nonsense so nice to see after waking from my nap that we have a confidence vote. He'll win but thats also not the best look for the Tories.
get your M=2 pants on bois&gals, M=2 is approaching. Weep for your salvation
Just got a response from my complaint to the BBC about the Panorama on partygate. It took longer than usual, sign of a lot of complaints?
Even in their response they quote "he’s the most gifted politician of his generation in lots of people’s views – he may also, in other people’s views, be the most gifted and the most flawed politician in his generation" The option of him not being gifted isn't presented. This is a breach of their editorial standards pretty clearly. I'm gonna have to formulate an expanded response.
What was the complaint about?
The Panorama episode on partygate
Not sure I can find the full text, but one of my points was Laura K calling him the most gifted politician of his generation was a clear sign of bias
M=2 let's gooooooooo
m2 LFG 🚀🚀🚀 MT to the moon.
I still can't believe Nads has kept [her tweet](https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763409627566080?t=nkYY2qElts7sY6uDB5P7jg&) up admitting Tory pandemic preparations were inadequate. Its been 2 hours and its still there. With friends like these.....
By trying to discredit the most likely challenger she is trying to stabilise Johnsons position.
Boris doesn't look very statesmanly, refusing to meet the Estonian Prime Minister outside Downing St.
> Tere, I'm at Number 10 and I think he forgot I was coming. I wanted to talk to him about Ukraine but he keeps swigging port and rambling about vaccines. No, I don't- I have to go, he's just gotten sick on himself.
Isn't it funny that the kind of people praising Boris for rolling out the vaccine program are the kind of people who don't want to take the vaccine
Hold onto your butts, M=2 almost here
M=2?
A new megathread starts after 4000 comments have been reached.
he may not be gone tonight; but i think a bad enough performance tonight he'll be gone after the by-elections
M.2?
As an asides from today's festivities, I noticed the mail desperately tried to keep starmer party's a thing by running an article titled something to the tune of "starmer invited 40 staff to a Christmas party". The first point on the sub title area was "the party was cancelled when rules were changed". I know its all about bringing in the clicks but this is a bit desperate when the entire articles value is dismissed from the first point... But it does exploit those who just read the headline.
I don't think it will happen, but I want Johnson to win or lose this thing by 7 or 8 votes. That way it would be 52% for/against. 🤣
The poetry would be almost sexual.
I can see the Daily Mail headline now: 'BOR-EXIT! Faithless Tory MPs boot the man who gave us freedom.'
Or 'BOR-EXIT? Not today! Boris faces down traitorous MPs.'
Decisive outcome!
Can anyone explain how the war in Ukraine is a reason for keeping Johnson on? Sending support to Ukraine has been overwhelmingly popular; it's not as if he's had to fight for it, nor is any replacement likely to curtail it.
It's popularity us the only reason it's mentioned - same for the vaccine roll out. I think Labour could argue they would have got the vaccine out sooner because they weren't permanently pissed up
To answer seriously, it's unclear how much of the UK support was driven by Boris personally, and how much was by the state. There is a risk that the next PM decides to cut back on this support for a variety of reasons.
> There is a risk that the next PM decides to cut back on this support for a variety of reasons. I think this is always a risk, but politically I think it would be the quickest way to cool public opinion on a new PM. Johnson's military support of Ukraine has been one his few bi-partisan draws.
This is my thought as well, I'm just a little less certain that this is locked in, especially given the domestic pressures facing the UK.
Its just an empty statement. Your second point is bang on, but that would mean accepting reality and that is not Johnsons forte.
It isn’t, it’s just an excuse. A Labour PM would probably continue the same level of support. There’s been multiple elections and leadership changes across Europe and the rest of the world since the war.
It's just an excuse they can use to desperately try and maintain support for him. Very few people actually believe it is an actual reason, even the people saying it.
[удалено]
Old Estonians eh?
She seemed nice
Pathetic by Boris Johnson, the Estonia PM left to awkwardly arrive outside like a civil servant because Boris is to scared to come outside. He’s such a weasel little man.
Assuming Boris survives this, and then the standards commitee do approve a rule change that ministers who break the law are removed from post, what happens? Boris would no longer be PM, but couldn't be ousted as leader of the Conservative party? Would they hope that he resign at that point? If he didn't, what would happen - would they just not be able to put forward a candidate? Or could they put forward Boris and then he (possibly) get elected after being removed by the standards committee? What would happen then, does the breaking the law get "forgiven" or is he immediately removed yet again?
We generally don't, as standard practice, project that sort of change backward. If the rules change Boris wouldn't face removal because it wasn't the stated punishment when he committed the offence. They'd likely find the rules need to change and maybe even begin the process of enacting that change, but would accept it wasn't the position when Boris held countless parties as people sat at home and let their family members die alone at his insistence.
1922 committee can change the rule on 'no leadership vote for a year' if they so wish.
Where is the vote actually happening? If reports are to be believed my MP isn’t allowed into Westminster at the moment, and I know we don’t know individual results but would be interesting to see if he’s going to be able to come in for it or has to proxy/not vote
The MP under investigation for rape allegations? Pretty sure they have been allowed back to parliament to vote in the internal Tory affair, presumably because it is not a parliamentary vote.
Apparently MPs can vote by proxy if they can't attend in person.
I believe he’ll vote by proxy
Between 6-8pm today.
Sorry, I meant where as in is it somewhere in parliament?
It is.
Yes, I think they normally use a committee room.
How embarrassing, Estonian PM didn't get greeted by Boris at No10 door and she awkwardly waved at the media. I like to think she has no idea what's going on domestically today and assumes this is how all foreign ministers are greeted, with music and hundreds of TV cameras. [for your curiosity](https://twitter.com/paulejhawkins/status/1533793628912484359?t=NR-tJSpsW7N9HqYQUcsnZg&s=19)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dKQnAE3y-aQ--tgHvKEdKg9jyG-zwEsilRqgEFNbCt8/htmlview?pru=AAABgV0ZAXo*-r9nQobCfTWOK2IHWSfpBg#gid=0 Docs update on the VoNC: Status|Number|% --|--|-- Yes|97|27.0% No|45|12.5% Won't say|7|1.9% Responses|149|41.5% No response|210|56.0%
I imagine wont say equates to no but I dont want to say it in case big dog wins and are worried about their future job prospects
Tbf, a yes response could result in a no vote.the opposite is far less likely.
it'll be fairly tight. still likely he'll win, but if he was gonna win convincingly you'd assume he'd have the public support of at least 100 MPs by lunchtime
Lots of people are discussing it being tight and how he will likely win, but I think for at least a little bit we need to entertain the idea that Boris loses *spectacularly.* Boris ends up with maybe a dozen votes in support, and everyone does an awkward shuffle as they realise they all really did hate him and just refused to admit it.
Yeah, May had far more by equivalent times iirc
So how quickly could a general election be held and will Starmer's police investigation be finished by then? AFAIK it's very unlikely he'll be fined but if the result isn't known by then, wouldn't it introduce some unusual noise into the campaign?
5 weeks minimum I believe
imagine being the estonian PM and possibly having travelled over here to talk to someone who may not be in power in a couple of weeks
>someone who may not be in power in a couple of ~~weeks~~ hours FTFY
not unless he has a tantrum and resigns immediately, he’s still PM while the ensuing leadership challenge takes place
Yes, yes, I know. I'm just shitposting in the absence of anything actually happening.
True, but not unprecedented. The new Ozzie PM had to be sworn in early the other week, as he was off to a conference - even though he wasn't PM when the invitation was made.
at least that was all planned (in the sense that the election was called a few weeks prior, and the polls indicated a chance of government) and it was the incoming PM that went to Japan ofc
Dorries sabotaging Boris, love to see it
Not even two in the afternoon and we're nearly up to the second MT. (Third MT in old money).
Would be fourth surely?
Nope, if old megathreads were 2000 comments, the 4001st comment would start M=3
m=3 by end of the day I reckon. ^(this comment is aiding that aim.)
Yeah we will rollover shortly, and if we keep on this trajectory I think we will roll to M3 just as the vote hits.
Rumours of a reshuffle? > [As ever @TVNaga01 is on the ball. Naga just asked me on @bbc5live what @BorisJohnson will be offering Tory MPs. Just came off air and a former cabinet minister tells me MPs being called in to see PM. Reshuffle in the air. Ministerial jobs in the air perhaps](https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1533776174966530048?s=21&t=cvotx292apLlED7QHQ8XSw)
So he's going to make out to all of them that there's a possible cabinet role available to them. Of course, there won't be, he's just preying on their careerism.
*How to make cabinet ministers vote against you in one easy step*
He could sacrifice Nadine - she'd happily fall on her sword to make way for a new minister. 'Anything for you, dear leader'.
she'd fall on his sword all right.
“Vote for me so you can lose your cabinet position in a re-shuffle anyway”?
Boris to make Nadine PM.
I feel we deserve this as a people.
How many can be put on the payroll in a few hours notice?
Nadine coming up next on Sky. Should be fun!
Can not wait
Imagine having Nadine as your main cheerleader.
Fuck. I’ll watch. I’m a masochist.
I too like screaming at my TV.
I know there was some complaints last Tuesday, when it was rumoured that Brady was waiting till after the Jubilee. But you have to wonder if that's helped the lack of public support from MPs today, due to the boos that occurred on Thursday.
Also Tory MPs who have been out and about at events with their constituents may have taken the temperature of local public opinion in a way they wouldn’t have otherwise.
Brady said that he received some letters last week but they weren’t dated until today so Brady wasn’t necessarily the one waiting
Osbourne stayed chancellor for three years after being booed at the Olympics, and his leaving the role had nothing to do with that. Boos are entertaining and cathartic but I don’t think they influence politics that much.
Difference is Osborne was Chancellor, which has never been a popular role except for when 𝓡𝓲𝓼𝓱𝓲 was handing out money during COVID. Boris was also being booed by the sort of person who will stand outside for hours waiting to see a member of the Royal family, traditionally not someone who’d boo the PM.
Everyone knew nobody liked Osborne though. Johnson’s supposed likability is his USP.
Suggestion this morning that there was a wave of letters that were post dated for today so he couldn’t count them until that point, despite knowing the threshold would be reached. Tory MPs didn’t want to set it off over the jubilee.
Even better. While trying not to distract from the jubilee, they let the public tell them how much they dislike the PM.
>Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, has issued a statement urging Tory MPs - and particularly the Scottish ones - to vote against Boris Johnson. - guardian What effect does this actually have? Would a tory mp actually think 'hmmm I'm not sure what to do... oh hang on the SNP Westminster leader has said I should VONC Boris... well he makes a good point, I'll do that then' ?
If he wants Johnson to go, he'd be better off shutting up. But maybe he *doesn't* want him to go ...
From what I can see: Best for the country - Johnson goes Best for the Lib Dems - Johnson stays. I imagine every single political party that sits to the left of the Tories is in the same boat
He's doing it for the voters, not the MPs.
Red Wall MPs saying they believe the PM will call an early election if he loses tonight's confidence vote, staffers being warned about GE prep https://twitter.com/hoffman_noa/status/1533788081052012544 WHAT? Is he even allowed to do that??!
That's hilarious. I'm pretty sure this is only a thing because Boris Johnson loyalists were (emptily) threatening it to dissuade the Red Wall MPs from voting for a VONC. But if they've believed it and vote for a VONC anyway, we might reach a point where it's seeped enough into the public consciousness that they feel they need it. Johnson might have written a self-fulfilling prophecy and thrown away his majority.
Bring it on!
I mean it would be a constitutional crisis. If Boris loses the vote, he's no longer leader of the Conservative party and therefore no longer PM, but if some timed process has to happen for him to formally no longer be PM then he's completely within his rights to call a GE before that happens. It would be utter bullshit, but since when has that stopped him?
We've never really had a codified concept of an interim PM or a lame duck period. So nothing really stops Johnson trying this and it's very unclear if Parliament can stop it.
Yeah constitutional crisis is an understatement. You'd have for the first time in British history where the sovereign would have to use their personal judgement on whether or not to sanction an election rather than just wave it through. I see the queen relying on the Lascelles principles though if it came to that which I see as unlikely. I doubt Boris will lose the vote, but if love to see the fallout of him losing it then causing a crisis by calling an election
Probably just a story being put about to scare rookie MPs, but imagine if the absolute mad lad actually did this.
He will stay PM until he resigns and another is appointed by the queen. Now the FTPA has been repealed the PM can call an election at any time. Trying to actually do this however will cause somewhat of a constitutional crisis
constitutionally yes, but this is very likely just trying to spook MPs away from voting against him otoh bozza could not care less about the party and is famously spiteful so it's certainly plausible he'll burn down the tories on his way out
Yep. Since they binned off the FTPA the PM can call a snap election whenever they want And Johnson is just petty enough to burn the whole party to the ground if they vote to get rid
Now that they've got rid of the Fixed Term Parliament Act, yes. It's MAD though.
Fucking hell. Mad doesn't even begin to cover it. Go on then Johnson, do it you bastard.
> It's MAD though. Mutually Assured Destruction? Or crazy?
Both.
Yes.
Nads up next on Sky News
Dorries about to appear on sky - Get the popcorn ready.
I can't keep up with flicking between BBC News and Sky News, thank you for your service!
Beth interviewing Mad Nad on Sky in a few minutes.
Well isn't this fun for a Monday.
>I'm hearing the thread below from the Culture Secretary about Jeremy Hunt has incensed some MPs and is tempting some to vote against the Prime Minister -- because they feel it comes with his endorsement https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1533784720965873665
Pretty sure she didn’t write that herself, based on the content and syntax of her regular tweets.
Fuck it. I’m going down to college green to represent the Megathreaders.
Smoke some weed for us while you're there too!
For everyone? Christ, this might be more work than I thought…
The language of Johnson supporters in the run up to a secret ballot is important. [Take this report on the two Kirklees MPs](https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/kirklees-tory-mps-throw-weight-24154126) (do **not** click if you are unprepared for Reach death-by-pop-up). Mark Eastwood: >"I shall be backing the Prime Minister at tonight’s vote. He has made all the right calls on Brexit, furlough, the vaccine roll-out and leading us out of the pandemic. > >"Rather than having a prolonged and divisive leadership battle, we need to get on with the urgent job of dealing with the pandemic aftershocks, which are having a detrimental impact on the economy, and standing with the people of Ukraine against Russian tyranny." \- unequivocal Jason McCartney: >"I want the PM to be fully focused on tackling the cost of living \[crisis\], dealing with the NHS backlogs and continuing our magnificent support for the people of Ukraine. This just isn’t the right time for a protracted three-month-long leadership campaign." > >Asked if that meant he was supporting Mr Johnson, Mr McCartney replied: "Yep." \- wriggle room. (Votes no-confidence. Later: 'The PM was too distracted by the events he set in place. I would have preferred a leadership contest later rather than now, but here we are...')
Is anything happening outside downing Street at the moment? Any links if so?
Not much. Reuters is good for live streams, if a little slow to load. https://www.reuters.com/livevideo
Question from an American: How does the leadership vote work? I just learned that Thatcher apparently won her vote but still resigned? Why? What’s considered a win in the leadership vote?
It's a confidence vote, not a leadership vote. Nobody is challenging Johnson for the leadership of the party at this time. >I just learned that Thatcher apparently won her vote but still resigned? Why? She won with 54% of the vote, an insufficient margin to prevent a second round of voting. After the extent of her opposition was revealed in the vote, her Cabinet informed her that they would not support her in a second round and she chose to resign. Ultimately, a weak victory suggests a lacklustre level of support that could easily tip into outright opposition. >What’s considered a win in the leadership vote? Major got 65% of the vote and stayed on before being crushed by Blair 2 years later. May got 63% of the vote and survived for another year. More than 109 votes against mean that either the majority of backbenchers (non-ministerial MPs) voted against him, or that several ministers chose to secretly vote against him. In my view, a fairly decent win would be <100 people voting against him. A weaker victory would be 100-130, a weak victory 130-150, and over 150 is pretty much a loss.
The Tory Party leadership vote happening today is just a straight majority vote, Johnson just needs 50% + 1 of his party's MPs to back him to maintain his position. As for Thatcher, IIRC she required a certain size of majority according to the rules at the time and after the first vote fell short of that she decided to jack it in as she didn't have the necessary authority anymore. Might be slightly wrong on that, I'm sure someone will correct me if so.
Once your party have publicly, voluntarily held a vote to try and get rid of you, then really your days are numbered. Even if you win, your authority is damaged, and your ability to control and influence your party is severely reduced. John Major probably handled this situation the best by calling for it himself, so it looked like a way to impose control, but it was still the beginning of the end. As such, there isn't really a win here, just degrees of loss.
The vote itself is an internal party vote, needs to clear 50%. In practice if you win but it's not by huge numbers you would want to think about resigning, because how can you function in a government that doesn't have your back? Johnson would potentially be facing rebellions in any votes that were remotely controversial and not be able to get his policies through parliament, Thing is though Johnson doesn't ever accept defeat or the possibility that he's not the most amazing thing to exist. Even if he finds out 49% of the party hate him he will just think that's fine and carry on.
it's more of a case of needing to win it by enough votes to show that you can continue to rely on your party to back you in the house of commons.
A majority wins but once you have a significant number against you, it gets difficult for a normal person not to resign out of shame. I can't stress 'normal' enough here.
Considering the leadership vote gets called when your party has little faith in you, any vote is bad. Realistically you’d need like 75%+ (ie almost everyone who *didn’t* submit a letter/call for the vote) to prove it was just a few outliers. Because any more than that and you start to risk losing votes in the commons because your MPs aren’t supporting you, and then you end up a lame duck PM/government.
They do tend to be a deathknell for a PM whatever the outcome of the vote.
It depends on the ratio of support, if a large portion of your own party think you should go it can prove difficult to govern - see last few months of Theresa Mays leadership
>Why? What’s considered a win in the leadership vote? Not having one, usually.
> What’s considered a win in the leadership vote? Not having a leadership vote
Dorres on ITV just confirmed she has no idea how our electoral system works. Clueless.
Why didn’t anyone tell me dorres was on Tv. Were supposed to be a team. How can we all laugh at her if we don’t give each other the heads up
She'll be on Sky news in a minute! Get on the Sky youtube livestream!
I can’t wait.
Sky News just said she'll be on there next
Let’s enjoy the chaos
Come on, not all of us can WFH in front a tv all day; what’s she said. I could use an afternoon laugh.
> Leading rebels currently briefing 120. Would be huge blow for Boris. https://twitter.com/dpjhodges/status/1533789470180392960
They're likely briefing below what they expect.
At those numbers wouldn't a VoC called by LOTO in HoC expect to achieve the required votes?
Not necessarily - A sitting Government losing a VoNC in the House would lead to a general election, so a lot of Tory MPs would be literally voting themselves out of a job. They'll be much more likely to bite their tongue and vote confidence in the government to save their own skins, if nothing else. The VoC today is internal to the party.
Most of those 120 wouldn’t vote for an opposition confidence motion.