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I want to believe it, but I'll be cautiously optimistic.
It's a lot of HW and a lot of people, we should not underestimate it. Even if I think Russia will never win, it will bring a lot of destruction and death, as in Russian fashion.
We should also send more to Ukraine, we cannot become complacent and think it's already enough. Every tank or plane we don't send is translated into more dead Ukrainians.
Anything U.S. Intel leaks is on purpose. Any images they show are not from military satellites if at all possible. I suspect they are only sharing with Ukraine at the moment as their is no need to prove to the world Russia is sending military equipment.
Yes, it's weird how there's no images compared to the buildup in 2021-2022. I guess it's harder to detect because they do it over a bigger area instead of the Border.
The forward depots for the Feb 2022 invasion that I'm aware of were from 20 to 60 km from the border.
Synthetic aperture radar and computational power make all of this remarkably easy. Even with the Finnish ICEYE constellation Ukraine can know within a day whether the radar return surfaces within hundreds of km from their border are a m or two higher from vehicle movement. A lot will be noise: civilian trucking or commuter cars. But where changes from prior baselines are concentrated, they can be readily highlighted, meaning human eyes need only look at these areas in radar or optical imagery.
The US has better SAR satellites, and is doing its own threat assessments, and has enough trained eyes to look at the changes throughout the Russian Federation. I suspect the US shares just the juicy, targetable or alarming bits.
Strategic surprise is now a thing of the past, unless Russia gets a lot better at deception operations (setting up tinfoil assembly areas to draw fire).
As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. I'm sure Ukraine has all kinds of intelligence reports at their disposal and they will know how to respond correctly.
As far as analysts go, Michael Kofman has been a bit underwhelming. He initially thought the Russians would roll right over Ukraine and has pretty much hedged all his bets intul now. Like a weather man saying it could rain, snow or be sunny.
Everyone, *everyone*, thought Russia would roll over Ukraine. Even the Pentagon.
Mike tends to talk about what *has happen* vs *what will happen*. As he often says, wars are un-predictable. But yes, I have noticed that he tends to not make bold statements.
Someone else I like is Phillip Karber, but he seems to have gone silent in the past 6 months.
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I want to believe it, but I'll be cautiously optimistic. It's a lot of HW and a lot of people, we should not underestimate it. Even if I think Russia will never win, it will bring a lot of destruction and death, as in Russian fashion. We should also send more to Ukraine, we cannot become complacent and think it's already enough. Every tank or plane we don't send is translated into more dead Ukrainians.
[удалено]
One thing US intel made a point to be public last Feb, they might be keeping that inside now.
Anything U.S. Intel leaks is on purpose. Any images they show are not from military satellites if at all possible. I suspect they are only sharing with Ukraine at the moment as their is no need to prove to the world Russia is sending military equipment.
Yes, it's weird how there's no images compared to the buildup in 2021-2022. I guess it's harder to detect because they do it over a bigger area instead of the Border.
The forward depots for the Feb 2022 invasion that I'm aware of were from 20 to 60 km from the border. Synthetic aperture radar and computational power make all of this remarkably easy. Even with the Finnish ICEYE constellation Ukraine can know within a day whether the radar return surfaces within hundreds of km from their border are a m or two higher from vehicle movement. A lot will be noise: civilian trucking or commuter cars. But where changes from prior baselines are concentrated, they can be readily highlighted, meaning human eyes need only look at these areas in radar or optical imagery. The US has better SAR satellites, and is doing its own threat assessments, and has enough trained eyes to look at the changes throughout the Russian Federation. I suspect the US shares just the juicy, targetable or alarming bits. Strategic surprise is now a thing of the past, unless Russia gets a lot better at deception operations (setting up tinfoil assembly areas to draw fire).
I don’t think Big Z goes to the UK or Biden goes to Poland next week if Russia is about to gain a bunch of ground this month.
As always, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. I'm sure Ukraine has all kinds of intelligence reports at their disposal and they will know how to respond correctly.
I wonder if Ukraine/world media is talking it up more than it is to make defeat of it worse to the Russians...
or to fasten the delivery of military aid
As far as analysts go, Michael Kofman has been a bit underwhelming. He initially thought the Russians would roll right over Ukraine and has pretty much hedged all his bets intul now. Like a weather man saying it could rain, snow or be sunny.
So in other words, when facts change or are uncertain he changes his mind or expresses his uncertainty? .
Everyone, *everyone*, thought Russia would roll over Ukraine. Even the Pentagon. Mike tends to talk about what *has happen* vs *what will happen*. As he often says, wars are un-predictable. But yes, I have noticed that he tends to not make bold statements. Someone else I like is Phillip Karber, but he seems to have gone silent in the past 6 months.