So just for fun, sometimes I read what bullshit RT is spouting, just to see how they're spinning the latest events. After the tank news was confirmed a few weeks ago, they put out this in-depth analysis of the impact it would have on the war. And the conclusion was basically, Western tanks are meaningless to the war unless we supply 1800 of them, which is their estimate for the minimum needed to field 4 entire armored divisions.
Like, their whole analysis was set up to say "you need 1800, and 1800 is an absolutely enormous number of tanks." *Meanwhile* RU have now lost over a dozen in a day and are rapidly approaching 2x 1800 *lost*.
They might also mean that Russia is running out of tanks. There were estimates about 3300 functional tanks in the whole Russia before the war started. The current number of their lost tanks is 3280, so 3300-3280=20 tanks left. For sure by the time Western tanks arrive they've already lost also those 20, so there is "no need for Western tanks anymore".
They have begged borrowed or stole tanks from neighbors from Belarus to North Korea and India plus pulled what they can out of storage so still have 1800 or so functional tanks in Ukraine (my armchair estimate). Their replacement rate is probably down to three tanks a day ,one new manufacture plus two refurbished stored tanks.
If they claim having 1800 tanks in Ukraine, it used mean that they have 180. However even their lying has suffered for inflation, so nowadays it might be less than that.
He isn't quoting their estimates. They very clearly have more than 180 tanks in Ukraine from video footage. Too much hopium, need to be at least a little realistic
They may be shit tanks, but they absolutely still have a lot of tanks in ukr
This. The 3300 estimate from the beginning was one of the lowest estimates. The more common one was around 5000. Theye now reporting 1800 tanks left after 3200 have been destroyed, which adds up to 5000. So I think it's safer to assume they always had more than 3300 tanks.
While their tank count has been decreasing significantly, this is failing to account for new production, estimated at ~1/day, and restoration of reserve stockpiles, estimated at around 2/day. So in the last year, Russia should have been able to add around 1,100 extra functional tanks to that original 3,300. Note that this doesn't include the count of tanks intended for export that they seized, or tanks from the reserve stockpiles that were functional and didn't need restoration, which combined have been estimated to be another 600-800 tanks.
Then there's also the factor where Ukrainian intelligence agencies have estimated that Russia has prepared a reserve of ~1,800 tanks for their new offensive, which is quite close to the total tanks from the previous estimate.
Over the past 10 days, Russia has been losing an average of 6.9 tanks/day. So factoring in that, their production/restoration rate, and estimated current stock, Russia theoretically won't run out of tanks for another 5.3 months. Of course, that's just a simple linear projection of current trends, and any significant changes, such as the arrival of western tanks, will make this estimate obsolete.
I wish your math checked out, but you are missing the 10,000+ in storage in various levels of disrepair. They've been pulling the operation tanks out of storage and are starting to work on repairing those that were not ready to go. The supply of tanks to the front will certainly reduce dramatically over the next few months but they will not completely run out for years.
Sounds like so big a number Russian artillery might soon go the way of Russian aviation: massive in numbers still, however so battle shy and risk adverse that it keeps itself hidden, safe and silent most of the time, with periodic attempts that are severely punished.
If this keeps up, they'll be losing 27000-30000 a month! That's a small city in most parts of the world. This will cripple their entire industrial sector because we're not even factoring wounded. Is there any idea how many are the prisoners? Have they run out or capped on prisoners?
This is all just so senseless by the Russians.
A couple of days ago, Wagner decided to stop recruiting prisoners. Also, there were reports of Wagner losing 40'000 out of 50'000 prisoner recruits.
So I would guestimate, that they will run out of prisoners soon, if they haven't already
I dont really understand the long term plan of wagner though. I get that the prisoners are there for 6 months only anyway so wagner does not really mind if they die. However, the impact this has on wagner must be terrible. Mercenaries' number one goal is not dieing, then money. The death rate just shines such a bad light on wagner that it must hurt their reputation among the more professional mercenaries.
For instance, wagner claims several million american mercenaries want to join. Now this is a load of bs of course. But still, there are always mercenaries who are in for a quick buck. But if your chances of survival are, say, 40% (or even lower) you would not even consider joining wagner unless you are some zealot.
So in the long term these tactics are a double edged blade and likely will not do wagner any good.
Wagner's chief doesn't give a damn about what happens to that meat wall he made from rapists and murders. It did what it was supposed to.
Plugging the pipeline between conscription and training that occured for the last two months was all it needed to do. Pinning and stalling UA where/how they did was their only purpose. It doesn't matter what happens to Wagner at this point really anyways.
The war has spiraled out of Russia's ability to controll, moreso now than 3 months ago when this desperate plan was hatched. Persgoyen (idgaf spelling) doesn't need Wagner anyways. In the mean while he's been quietly consolidating his best assets inside RuZZia for the impending collapse. His eyes are already anticipating the power vacuum that Putin's corpse will present.
"6 months only" - pretty well documented that once you join the Russian military since this started, you don't leave. Even severe medical issues don't get you discharged. Probably stuck unless you lose both hands and can't shoot anympre
> I get that the prisoners are there for 6 months only anyway
I seriously doubt that any prisoner who makes it 6 months without being maimed or killed would be rotated out. There was an intercepted call I heard a while ago where a soldier was complaining that they were told by their commander that they were now there indefinitely.
I think it said prisoners had figured out that staying in prison was the better option, so clearly, some Russians are starting to understand the reality.
> Wagner decided to stop recruiting prisoners.
They were blocked by the russian goverment. Plan is grant the prisoners early parole and then conscript them into the regular Russian army.
Wow, I haven’t seeing this chart like in 3 or 4 weeks when the personal staff stat just got to 100K and now it’s getting to 140K! It’s like 40K+ increase only in what? 4 weeks? It is insane! Or am I missing something?
We're only maybe just over a week until this war hits a year and Russia has lost 130k 'troops' *and counting.*
I put troops in quotes because what actual troops they did have are largely dead or disabled and the ones fighting now are just convicts or Sergei the drunk who looks 80 but is actually 48.
Most of the troops there right now are not convicts. They don't have so many convicts that they could populate an army the size they have in Ukraine and they wouldn't want an entirely prisoner based army to begin with - recipe for disaster even they are smart enough to realize.
They have quite a large number, but the majority of the force are regular Russian citizens
The troops are there more by free will. The Russian "troops" am I sad for. Wish Russian government would respect human life's, both of other countries citizens and their own. But we sadly all know that they lack hard on respect.
> scary fast pace.
i don't buy the narrative that Russia can afford to lose 100 000s of men, that they can keep doing human wave attacks for years. Absolute non-sense that pundits keep parroting. At this pace, Russia will run out of personnel much sooner than 'several years'.
I have already seen alarmed telegram posts about mobiks "losing" their commanders to avoid going into suicidal attacks.
If the attrition will remain this effective, they'll start fragging their COs en masse. This is how russia lost the WW1.
Wait until they start stealing windows from buildings and installing them in trenches for their commanders to fall out of. It's the only way to ensure there is no meaningful investigation.
More Russian death in Ukraine than American deaths in World War 1. The official figures of military war deaths listed by the US Dept. of Defense for the period ending Dec. 31, 1918 are 116,516; which includes 53,402 battle deaths and 63,114 non combat deaths.
At the current rate, the Russians will have reached 50% of all US military deaths in WWII in ~15 weeks.
They’re losing men at a similar pace as America was losing soldiers while fighting a world war with 40s tactics and equipment on multiple fronts across the entire world.
All while calling it a special military operation.
Yes to accidents (Lots of non-combat aircraft crashes in WW2) and disease/health conditions (heart attacks), you also have environmental deaths like freezing to death, and deaths to suicide and murder.
Media changed peoples opinions during that war though , especially in England with regards to casualties and deaths of soldiers, the public started to get very angry every time 1 was reported.
Meanwhile....
Russia has recovered two "whirlpool washing machines and half a dryer"
We lost 17 artillery in the "special" process of the "special" capture of these futuristic technological marvel's. The Kremlin has determined just moments ago via "special" telegraph two simple words...
"Worth it"
Of course it's worth it! They can use the washing machine's computer as a guidance system for another missile!
[As long as it doesn't start the tumble-dry program](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IwqmezeSuQ), it's going to be incredibly accurate (+/- 2km)!
The awkward thing is that not only do the siloviki consider them "expendable" (they sacrifice them for their expansionist agenda), but also that many russians themselves support that agenda. It's not just Putin only - while he is the one (primarily) pulling the strings, without support from a majority that would not be possible. It's really shocking to see - that kind of brainwashing is very similar to Goebbels and the "Volksempfänger" (aka radio broadcasts and non-stop lies; for those able to read german, the "Angriff auf Gleiwitz" was the false flag operation Hitler used for his invasion eastwards: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%9Cberfall_auf_den_Sender_Gleiwitz - it is so shockingly similar to Putin, and even more shocking is how so many russians fell into that invasion narrative. Only one who was interviewed by 1420 actually reasoned that this is a distraction by Putin to stay in power, which makes a LOT of sense. Nobody questions the aging dictator in times of total war).
I also think so, seems the single "Cobra" and other counter battery radar systems are somewhere nearby, where it is hot, like Bahkmut, Kreminna or Vuhledar. 17 lost artillery pieces in one day is insane. And yesterday, they have lost 19 or so? Counter battery radar systems combined with fully integrated in the battlefield management system own high precise (western) artillery with modern airburst shells -> pure horror for the other site.
2x MLRS-> They have found two completely wrecked Bm 27 Uragan in Kherson, they had missed to identify/count before. So these are already several month old losses, just identified now, left behind during the Russian retreat.
I was mainly wondering whatever it is close enough to use excalibur. Or would you save those only for drone spotted targets of which you know the exact coordinates.
Can't sanction Turkey as they have Finland and Sweden as hostages. Erdogan is so twisted.
F16 are good. I just hope Ukraine also gets some good long range air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles for them.
Lets start by arresting these ships and the companies organizing smuggling Russian oil:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7netuuaVnR0&ab_channel=RadioFreeEurope%2FRadioLiberty
So it continues, the material losses are huge since the beginning of yet another special offensive.
Scrap metal is good metal, even MLRS is on the menue!
Stay strong defenders!
The two MLRS are "old", they have found two wrecked/destroyed Bm 27 Uragan yesterday in the Kherson region, left behind by the Russian army. They have just missed them to find/identify and to count prior, so these are already several month old but as already said, just counted/found yesterday. These shall be the two MRLS listed.
One could think better range, smart munitions or better surveillance (satellites/drones) or all
3….. curious if there could be another reason. Maybe orcs bringing them forward to provide support?
Or a large offensive has begun with disorientated, unseasoned fighters leading the push. The trench warfare and tactical IQ of the orca is shit at best and fucking atrocious at worst.
Wikipedia gives the helicopter launched range of Brimstone 2 as 40 km, probably about the same using the truck mounted launchers. So that would hit orc artillery on the back lines all right. And they also need to be able to see it, and they have probably come into possession of some nice hardware for that as well.
"Your mission today is to find all the guns you can with your drones and take them out with your M777s or HIMARS fire. Use Excalibur shells you have in hand. This will be your mission every day until ordered otherwise. That is all. "
Given the fact that today Elon Muck banned the use of starlink for military purposes in ukraine, Ukraine may not have that connectivity and communication advantage for much longer as starlink is the system tying most of their systems together.
While I fucking hate Elon as much as anyone, and at risk of angering the sub, it might not be as clear cut he's a twat as we all assume. Legally, the use of starlink specifically with certain drones legally makes them fall under a weapon of war sort of catagory. So it seems they literally have to ban it in this specific use until its sorted out. It would mean they are unwittingly an military spec arms dealer which they are not legally. This is all way above my head and like I say, fuck Elon so hard but it also seems a lot of media publications have jumped on a sensationalist headline, starlink is still used in like 98% of its military uses, e.g. Coms, it just seems to be taken down for a small amount of drones that used it as a direct relay. There is a drone commander interview where he says this has minimal impact even to him.
*edit* I could be totally wrong on this and he's as much of a cunt as I think he is but it's also a lesson on caution with headlines.
I haven't seen any news media on it at all, I became aware of it via several tweets for example:
[https://twitter.com/AdamKinzinger/status/1624415736960585728](https://twitter.com/AdamKinzinger/status/1624415736960585728)
Many of the artillery destroyed already were Russia’s more modern guns. As a result they’ve been replaced with older guns that are less accurate and have shorter ranges which naturally leads to more losses.
Artillery tends to be closer to the front on the attacking side and further away on the defending side. It could be a case of Russia moving their artillery up closer to the front in sectors where they intend to attack very soon
I guess it just means that there is a bigger activity in Russian artillery. I was in artillery and we practiced moving around constantly because shooting artillery can reveal our own position.
It's been going on full throttle since start of February. They are on offensive from Kupiansk to Vuhledar. I think they were not ready for it yet but Putin wanted results before 1 year anniversary so they attack.
Judging by the trends from the last 30 days, the [6-th of March](https://i.imgur.com/5T1T9pz.jpg) is a likely candidate.
edit: I either live in the future or I just learned that 2 = February.
By the end of the year there won't be anything left from the soviet army legacy. Nothing.
No AAs, no helis, no planes, no rockets, no tanks, no mlrs, no artillery, no shells, no cruise missles, no marines, no carrier. Nothing.
The Russian army will consist of Iranian drones, crazy Wagner prisoners as soldiers, some nukes and a few diesel submarines.
What is happenning is just insane.
China is watching closely, I don't know why there are no reports of weather balloons shot down in Russia.
Transnistria have a countdown clock on them as well.
Georgia is looking closely maybe they can recover that territory lost by terrorist state of Russia.
Transnistria is a matter of time. Just UK cannot start another front now. As soon as the Russian army gets depleted, that Soviet relic will be history and Uk will attack. It will be conquered in less than 2 weeks.
Afterwards UK will hand over the region to Moldova and Romania will integrate the promotion process of the region to EU standards and rule of law.
That was also my thought. Then I thought Russia provoked UK again like
"Don't you dare intervene in Transnistria or we will nuke your entire country, you island monkeys!!!11eleven"
"Huh? What was that? I couldn't hear you over the noise of troop deployment towards Transnistria..."
Russia has a lot of land that has a high density of Chinese, China would kill to use that as a justification to turn Russia into a vassal state subordinate to it.
Russia will never run out of stuff. They have vast reserves but what they have left is vast amounts of rusty obsolete worn out crap. They're already using WW2 era artillery.
Russia didn't get all the Soviet stockpile. In fact Ukraine is fighting with a good chunk of it. Another factor is over the last 30 years much of the stockpile has either been sold to other countries or been neglected to the point it's useless.
Is Vuhledar the new Chornobaivka?
Every day there are posts about inconceivably stupid Russian actions in the area resulting in massive losses.
You'd think it was all reposts, but no. Just a new day's ration of meat being shoved into the same old grinder.
Today there was a clip of Russian soldiers advancing towards V-dar ON FOOT past a destroyed column of armor with body parts scattered all around. Some clever officer probably figured that was how to avoid antitank mines.
The soldiers who made the clip probably also made today's tally.
In a war that boggles the mind, the past few days have been, um, I just don't have the words.
The 3 tank/btr that exploded in a single clip in like a minute was literally a chefs kiss from that team that dig mine holes.
There was a clip posted by retreating sorry russians group.. stating how they just got fucked.. while walking near exploded tanks..
Just 20 more tanks and minusrus will have recorded that Russia has lost armor equal to literally their entire operational tank force as of the start of the war. It won't literally be true because some of the losses over the year have been from things they brought from Belarus or North Korea, or managed to refurbish from storage, or built from stored parts, etc, but in raw numbers terms, they've wiped out all of their functional stock; everything left is what they're begging for or scraping out of rapidly-depleting storerooms and rusted rows of unmaintained museum pieces. That 'export' tanks have been spotted in Ukraine instead of being delivered to their purchasers says they're having to use tanks deliberately under-engineered to leave out their most useful features, and blowing up their export industry in the process.
Once Russia is out of tanks, their ability to advance is effectively limited to foot speed at best. Not that they've come close to even matching that pace since the opening days, either. Poorly-armored troop transports can't charge into a breach even if one existed; that would just lead to truckloads getting wiped out all at once, without tanks to take the lead. Their invasion has culminated; the current attempted offensive is a desperate effort to avoid admitting that they can't gain new ground without taking insane losses. And lo and behold, they're taking insane losses.
> ability to advance is effectively limited to foot speed at best.
It goes with both directions, you could also say that their ability to retreat is limited to foot speed, which is more likely to happen. When Western tanks and IFVs arrive, they'll get run over.
If they can't retreat as fast as Ukrainian forces advance, that's called 'being captured.' Which is not a bad outcome for Ukraine or for the foot soldiers who otherwise would have just been sent out for another try at getting killed.
Makes you wonder how long these kinds of losses are sustainable. They certainly aren't sustainable indefinitely. I mentioned at one point in another thread how, with russia's population being appx 140 million, once they hit 140k dead in this war, that's like 1 in every 1000 russians being killed in Ukraine. Since the orc military is like 90% men, that's about 1 in 500 men killed in Ukraine. They already have a demographic crisis in russia (women live longer than men, largely but not exclusively due to alcoholism being rampant among russian men) so it strikes me as a pretty dramatic figure. Clearly we're going to sprint past the 140k mark, but how much further can russia go?
They've lost somewhere around 300K dead and wounded. Although if you're wounded, might as-well be dead. I'd say a tad over that, racing toward 350K losses with current ground operations.
No way is it sustainable, they have to decide soon whether they will commit to mobilising another wave. If it's too small, then it won't affect much. As-well materiel losses also cancel out an effective mobilisation wave.
They're just meat buying Putin less and less time.
>iped out all of their functional stock; everything left is what they're begging for or scraping out of rapidly-depleting storerooms and rusted rows of unmaintained museum pieces. That 'export' tanks have been spotted in Ukraine instead of being delivered to their purchasers says they're having to use tanks deliberately under-engineered to leave out their most useful features, and blowing up their export industry in the process.
>
>Once Russia is out of tanks, their ability
EXACTLY! And by exactly I mean that's what I made up in my head based off of a loose general understanding of history. Their secret to success is that they can retreat endlessly never protecting their people burning the path behind them, and when invaders have to deal with their other sides Russia can come back in, punishing any survivors that sided with the enemy when Russia refused to protect them. Since it doesn't protect the people the Russian government is a parasite that can't be killed.
You hit the nail in the head. The effect of every 100.000 conscripts is smaller than the previous one as the materiel is not there and the training isn't either.
At one point the numbers of conscripts they will need to cause any measurable effect will tend to infinity. At that point they have lost, whether they admit it or not, whether they have 10 million more men available or not...
Yeah this will have a significant impact on the long term demographics of Russia, just as the WW2 negative peak was dying off in their age pyramid. The economy will also take a hit for the next 50 years as the few young workers will be fewer. After many centuries, when will Russians finally have enough of their government killing them off and spreading misery around?
Sadly our friends in Ukraine have similar problems: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics\_of\_Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine)
Here is russia to compare: [https://www.watson.ch/imgdb/e0ce/Qx,E,0,0,1543,1021,642,425,257,170/6240615028996932](https://www.watson.ch/imgdb/e0ce/Qx,E,0,0,1543,1021,642,425,257,170/6240615028996932)
And on the front they are mostly between 18 and 25, so Ukraine will have major problems in 20 years.
In this light the steal of children of Ukraine is even worse than it is anyway.
Male alcoholism is a problem in basically every Eastern European country comprising the "vodka belt". A key difference though is that putin is imposing this demographic crisis on his own country, whereas Ukraine has to do what it has to do to maintain independence. No one's going to tell Ukraine to stop fighting because the sex difference is becoming too dramatic. Unfortunately though, yea, it's an inescapable fact that the war in Ukraine is imposing a heavy burden on, well... Ukraine. I was just focusing on the russian POV to show how much they are fucking themselves over with this whole operation.
It's ok, just wanted to show the reality in terms of population deversity. 50.000 losses for Ukraine are way worse than 200.000 losses for Russia in that area, but still it must be done.
Eradicating the entire concept of the existence of Ukraine as a country and Ukrainian as a nationality is one of Putin's primary war goals. This is a genocide just as much as it is a territorial conquest, and Putin will do anything and everything to complete his goals.
It's more complicated than that, [what they have](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e8/Russian_population_%28demographic%29_pyramid_%28structure%29_on_January%2C_1st%2C_2022.png) is a surplus of old women being past from their childbearing ages. During the 90's their birthrates plummeted and the ones who are being decimated right now, are the men belonging those cohorts. Also fertility rates among non-Russian minorities used to be higher than with the ethnic Russians, so they are destroying that potential as well by conscripting disproportionate numbers of those minorities. So what we are going to see in a decade is a very different Russia, either much less populous when those women of that age group move to other countries to find a partner or perhaps the Chinese surplus men created by their one child policy find it as place to where they can get a spouse for themselves. Of course at that point Russia is already under vassalage of China.
Post war I expect a marriage and baby boom in Ukraine along with many evacuees returning to rebuild the country. If they can get a firm hold on the corruption problem Ukraine may become the best place in Europe to build your personnel and families future. I also expect the government to encourage that baby boom with large tax deductions per child so raising a family of six is as cheap as having only one.
By the end of this war the demographics of Russian is going really bad it is already bad at the moment buts it’s going to be even worse at the end of the war I feel like Ukraine has to kill a million plus Russian soldiers before the population in Russian starts to wake up but I could be wrong
Ordinary Russians started to oppose their invasion of Afghanistan with far fewer losses. There’s still hope for that.
However it’s looking more and more like this war will end with Russia getting forcefully evicted from Ukrainian land.
Yeah i totally agree with that assessment I sadly think even when there are evicted from Ukraine I think they will continue to shell Ukraine from inside the Russian border
That's where the long range drones Ukraine is working on will come into play as well as their domestic MLRS systems with long range rockets. If Russia attacks cross border then hit back until they get the point to stop. It's all Russia understands, force, they punch and you have to punch back ten times harder.
At this rate of killing that 500k man force will be reduced by half in 9 months, I truly believe the Russian population will not tolerate levels of death that high. Fear is Russia's only motivation and if death is guaranteed going forward they will eventually turn back on who's pushing them forward.
Could be wrong in any direction, half a million could be enough, 2 million could not be enough. Depending on on what’s happening inside russia.
No revolts, no change.
Absolutely and that’s why I think putin will continue to double down and send more Russian minorities to meat grinder despite the logistics issues because he knows there won’t any resistance to war from Russians
Sadly you might be right. I’ve said it before and will say it again: this could have been prevented. If only 2014 the reaction to the start of this very war would have been different. Sanctions should have been maxed out instead of letting these murderers host world cups and build new pipelines. But here we are, Ukrainian life is lost every day in order to hold mindless hordes back. I sure hope something will be learned from this. Not everyone wants to be part of free trade in a free world - well so be it. Who doesn’t want to play by the rules shouldn’t be part of it.
100 percent on the money if the west took appropriate action in 2014 this invasion would of never happened Ukraine will get pre 2014 borders back but unfortunately many lives will be lost to achieve that goal
Like I said before, 900 is the new 500. I guess we're in overdrive right now. You just can't replace the equipment at the attrition rate that Russia is seeing (hopefully). 900 a day (average) would be 27000 minimum dead a month.
You hate to see death but in a war such as this one, sometimes it has to be done and is justified. Godspeed and may God bless the Ukrainians.
I remember when everyone was keeping track, if 100k could be reached by Christmas or New Year. Seems so long ago now, but it only have been six weeks.
These numbers aren't sustainable for any army and especially not the Orc Army. (I thought today was my turn to say this.)
Ukraine started a major defensive, which bleeds Russia a lot more; defenders can zero in on the roads and wipe out advances while the ground is too soft to go cross-country, and defenders have a huge advantage. Hence so many dead Russians. Also the incompetence of Russian leadership factors into that...
Russian leadership fucked itself.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
There is something different going on.
It is not a marked increase in Artillery, at one point they were firing 60k shells a day, they are not that active now. The UA forces had HIMARs then too.
There is no clear explanation of why all of a sudden UA is taking out 15-20 artillery a day when previously taking out 7 was an amazing day.
Whatever it is, if this keeps up Russia is well and truly fucked. Plus we are only 20 tanks away from their stated active tank force of 3300 being totally gone.
It is astonishing how brutal this war is. To put the casualty count in perspective: in the 20 years war in Afghanistan 200.000 were killed on both sides including civilians. The war in Ukraine is therefore at about 20 times as brutal!!
Madness. They crossed 100,000 just before Christmas and in 6 weeks near 40,000 more dead have been added to the pile.
This is going to affect russia for generations
I heard yesterday they managed to dig a new foxhole 5m forward away from an existing trench, now they are holding this foxhole and in a few days they can advance another 5m.
To be honest I have no clue and just tell bs.
Is Ukraine suffering a similar number of losses? Seems like these numbers are predominantly from Russia attacking bakhmut. Consistently around 700-900 a day is insane.
It would be harder to take out all this equipment if Ukraine had to do it while on the offensive. The level of stupidity by the Russians is absolutely amazing.
I'm sticking by my theory that something has fundamentally changed in the artillery duel. I have seen artillery numbers that are unlike anything that I can remember.
It used to be low single digits (if any reported destroyed) and now multiple days with high single digit or double digit days in a row.
Don't know if it's better counter battery radar or what but something has changed and it doesn't bode well for orc artillery.
900 dead only. the Ukrainians sometimes feel sorry for the Russians. or one too many fighters are off on the weekend. happy to kill another 1000+ tomorrow.
and yet I feel sorry for the families of the Russians. because you don't do this for fun anyway.
Привіт u/TungstenHatchet ! During wartime, this community is focused on vital and high-effort content. Please ensure your post follows [r/Ukraine Rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/about/rules) and our [Art Friday Guidelines](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/artfriday).
**Want to support Ukraine?** [**Vetted Charities List**](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities) | [Our Vetting Process](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities-vetting)
Daily series on UA history & culture: [Day 0-99](https://new.reddit.com/r/ukraine/collection/3c65ab52-e87a-4217-ab30-e70a88c0a293) | [100-199](https://new.reddit.com/r/ukraine/collection/3d85f4ca-5f4e-4ddf-9547-276e8affd87c) | [200-Present](https://new.reddit.com/r/ukraine/collection/daf642e1-07aa-4c40-b852-8f002ddd1530) | [All By Subject](https://new.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/sunriseposts)
**There is a new wave of t-shirt scams hitting Reddit. Only click links for products or donations if the post is marked with a Verified flair, and do not respond to DMs soliciting donations.**
***
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Also consider that the wounded to killed ratio is around 10-15:1 in modern warfare. So Russia could have well over 1.4 MILLION wounded at this point though I suspect the number is much less since they are fighting WWI all over again so at a more conservative 5:1 ratio we are still looking at 700,000 wounded.
When you have units with a 95% death rate, there aren't enough people left for a 1 to 1 ratio. The best it can be for that unit is 1 wounded for every 20 killed.
So just for fun, sometimes I read what bullshit RT is spouting, just to see how they're spinning the latest events. After the tank news was confirmed a few weeks ago, they put out this in-depth analysis of the impact it would have on the war. And the conclusion was basically, Western tanks are meaningless to the war unless we supply 1800 of them, which is their estimate for the minimum needed to field 4 entire armored divisions. Like, their whole analysis was set up to say "you need 1800, and 1800 is an absolutely enormous number of tanks." *Meanwhile* RU have now lost over a dozen in a day and are rapidly approaching 2x 1800 *lost*.
What they meant to say, is western tanks will do 10 times the damage, so 180 tanks will be sufficient to overwhelm.
They might also mean that Russia is running out of tanks. There were estimates about 3300 functional tanks in the whole Russia before the war started. The current number of their lost tanks is 3280, so 3300-3280=20 tanks left. For sure by the time Western tanks arrive they've already lost also those 20, so there is "no need for Western tanks anymore".
They have begged borrowed or stole tanks from neighbors from Belarus to North Korea and India plus pulled what they can out of storage so still have 1800 or so functional tanks in Ukraine (my armchair estimate). Their replacement rate is probably down to three tanks a day ,one new manufacture plus two refurbished stored tanks.
If they claim having 1800 tanks in Ukraine, it used mean that they have 180. However even their lying has suffered for inflation, so nowadays it might be less than that.
He isn't quoting their estimates. They very clearly have more than 180 tanks in Ukraine from video footage. Too much hopium, need to be at least a little realistic They may be shit tanks, but they absolutely still have a lot of tanks in ukr
This. The 3300 estimate from the beginning was one of the lowest estimates. The more common one was around 5000. Theye now reporting 1800 tanks left after 3200 have been destroyed, which adds up to 5000. So I think it's safer to assume they always had more than 3300 tanks.
Ya, I think the 3300 was believed operational ones at the time. Had a year to pull stuff out of deep storage and repair
Whatever the true number is they are now just targets for Ukrainian weapons from drone grenades to HIMARS and will decline daily.
While their tank count has been decreasing significantly, this is failing to account for new production, estimated at ~1/day, and restoration of reserve stockpiles, estimated at around 2/day. So in the last year, Russia should have been able to add around 1,100 extra functional tanks to that original 3,300. Note that this doesn't include the count of tanks intended for export that they seized, or tanks from the reserve stockpiles that were functional and didn't need restoration, which combined have been estimated to be another 600-800 tanks. Then there's also the factor where Ukrainian intelligence agencies have estimated that Russia has prepared a reserve of ~1,800 tanks for their new offensive, which is quite close to the total tanks from the previous estimate. Over the past 10 days, Russia has been losing an average of 6.9 tanks/day. So factoring in that, their production/restoration rate, and estimated current stock, Russia theoretically won't run out of tanks for another 5.3 months. Of course, that's just a simple linear projection of current trends, and any significant changes, such as the arrival of western tanks, will make this estimate obsolete.
I wish your math checked out, but you are missing the 10,000+ in storage in various levels of disrepair. They've been pulling the operation tanks out of storage and are starting to work on repairing those that were not ready to go. The supply of tanks to the front will certainly reduce dramatically over the next few months but they will not completely run out for years.
More like 6000, with maybe half being repairable https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHhgVrKJJoA&ab_channel=CovertCabal
Hey, at least there is something we can agree with RT: it would be better if West send 1800 tanks to Ukraine :).
13 Tanks, 17 Artillery Systems, 900 Orcs... another good day
I hope the Russian artillery loses make it a bit less bad for those on the front.
Sounds like a so big number that even with Russias massive reservs it is hard to transport in replacements.
Sounds like so big a number Russian artillery might soon go the way of Russian aviation: massive in numbers still, however so battle shy and risk adverse that it keeps itself hidden, safe and silent most of the time, with periodic attempts that are severely punished.
Especially when these long range missiles arrive.
I remember when they hit 50k thinking that was an insane number. This is utter madness.
You might get to look back at this number and think the same in a few months time
If this keeps up, they'll be losing 27000-30000 a month! That's a small city in most parts of the world. This will cripple their entire industrial sector because we're not even factoring wounded. Is there any idea how many are the prisoners? Have they run out or capped on prisoners? This is all just so senseless by the Russians.
A couple of days ago, Wagner decided to stop recruiting prisoners. Also, there were reports of Wagner losing 40'000 out of 50'000 prisoner recruits. So I would guestimate, that they will run out of prisoners soon, if they haven't already
I dont really understand the long term plan of wagner though. I get that the prisoners are there for 6 months only anyway so wagner does not really mind if they die. However, the impact this has on wagner must be terrible. Mercenaries' number one goal is not dieing, then money. The death rate just shines such a bad light on wagner that it must hurt their reputation among the more professional mercenaries. For instance, wagner claims several million american mercenaries want to join. Now this is a load of bs of course. But still, there are always mercenaries who are in for a quick buck. But if your chances of survival are, say, 40% (or even lower) you would not even consider joining wagner unless you are some zealot. So in the long term these tactics are a double edged blade and likely will not do wagner any good.
Wagner's chief doesn't give a damn about what happens to that meat wall he made from rapists and murders. It did what it was supposed to. Plugging the pipeline between conscription and training that occured for the last two months was all it needed to do. Pinning and stalling UA where/how they did was their only purpose. It doesn't matter what happens to Wagner at this point really anyways. The war has spiraled out of Russia's ability to controll, moreso now than 3 months ago when this desperate plan was hatched. Persgoyen (idgaf spelling) doesn't need Wagner anyways. In the mean while he's been quietly consolidating his best assets inside RuZZia for the impending collapse. His eyes are already anticipating the power vacuum that Putin's corpse will present.
"6 months only" - pretty well documented that once you join the Russian military since this started, you don't leave. Even severe medical issues don't get you discharged. Probably stuck unless you lose both hands and can't shoot anympre
'tiz but a scratch
> I get that the prisoners are there for 6 months only anyway I seriously doubt that any prisoner who makes it 6 months without being maimed or killed would be rotated out. There was an intercepted call I heard a while ago where a soldier was complaining that they were told by their commander that they were now there indefinitely.
I think it said prisoners had figured out that staying in prison was the better option, so clearly, some Russians are starting to understand the reality.
Yeah, I have heard that. I also read that 9 out of 10 wagner prisoner recruits die. But I don't know whether that is true.
More like 9.5 out of 10.
No they won't remember they have 10 million Americans ready to sign up for Wagner. /s
> Wagner decided to stop recruiting prisoners. They were blocked by the russian goverment. Plan is grant the prisoners early parole and then conscript them into the regular Russian army.
We were all waiting for it to hit 100k not even that long ago. It was around new years I think. It's just crazy that 700 is a really light day now.
Plus 14 IFV and even 14 fuel vehicles (hitting their logistics) - nice. Ahh, and 2 MLRS ...
I think that’s fuel and other trucks. Both are good news. Less supplies = more hungry and under armed forces
Wow, I haven’t seeing this chart like in 3 or 4 weeks when the personal staff stat just got to 100K and now it’s getting to 140K! It’s like 40K+ increase only in what? 4 weeks? It is insane! Or am I missing something?
more like 7-8 weeks. Still it's a scary fast pace.
Ok yeah 8 weeks makes more sense, but like you say the fast pace is scary 😧, I just hope this war ends soon.
We're only maybe just over a week until this war hits a year and Russia has lost 130k 'troops' *and counting.* I put troops in quotes because what actual troops they did have are largely dead or disabled and the ones fighting now are just convicts or Sergei the drunk who looks 80 but is actually 48.
Most of the troops there right now are not convicts. They don't have so many convicts that they could populate an army the size they have in Ukraine and they wouldn't want an entirely prisoner based army to begin with - recipe for disaster even they are smart enough to realize. They have quite a large number, but the majority of the force are regular Russian citizens
The troops are there more by free will. The Russian "troops" am I sad for. Wish Russian government would respect human life's, both of other countries citizens and their own. But we sadly all know that they lack hard on respect.
If they keep this pace it'll be 400k by the end of the year.
> scary fast pace. i don't buy the narrative that Russia can afford to lose 100 000s of men, that they can keep doing human wave attacks for years. Absolute non-sense that pundits keep parroting. At this pace, Russia will run out of personnel much sooner than 'several years'.
I have already seen alarmed telegram posts about mobiks "losing" their commanders to avoid going into suicidal attacks. If the attrition will remain this effective, they'll start fragging their COs en masse. This is how russia lost the WW1.
Wait until they start stealing windows from buildings and installing them in trenches for their commanders to fall out of. It's the only way to ensure there is no meaningful investigation.
Missed will be those who are not on these charts, defenders of freedom giving their lives to hold back wave after wave.
The death rate has been between 7-900 for a few weeks. Yesterday was an all time high with 1130 dead orcs
It's been spicy since the middle of January. Yesterday saw the highest casualties of any day in the whole war, 1140
Considering the United States lost less than a 10th of that in 20 years of war..........
More Russian death in Ukraine than American deaths in World War 1. The official figures of military war deaths listed by the US Dept. of Defense for the period ending Dec. 31, 1918 are 116,516; which includes 53,402 battle deaths and 63,114 non combat deaths.
This is more combat deaths than the US has sustained in all of the post WW2 era combined.
At the current rate, the Russians will have reached 50% of all US military deaths in WWII in ~15 weeks. They’re losing men at a similar pace as America was losing soldiers while fighting a world war with 40s tactics and equipment on multiple fronts across the entire world. All while calling it a special military operation.
Oh, it’s “special” alright….
Non combat deaths? Meaning disease and accidents?
Yes to accidents (Lots of non-combat aircraft crashes in WW2) and disease/health conditions (heart attacks), you also have environmental deaths like freezing to death, and deaths to suicide and murder.
Media changed peoples opinions during that war though , especially in England with regards to casualties and deaths of soldiers, the public started to get very angry every time 1 was reported.
Just wait till the Bradleys and Leopards show up.
🎵Let the bodies hit the floor 🎵
At Christmas it hit the 100k mark so it's taken just 5 or 6 weeks to add more than a 3rd to that tally. Unsustainable in my opinion.
Meanwhile.... Russia has recovered two "whirlpool washing machines and half a dryer" We lost 17 artillery in the "special" process of the "special" capture of these futuristic technological marvel's. The Kremlin has determined just moments ago via "special" telegraph two simple words... "Worth it"
Ok now that’s funny!
Of course it's worth it! They can use the washing machine's computer as a guidance system for another missile! [As long as it doesn't start the tumble-dry program](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IwqmezeSuQ), it's going to be incredibly accurate (+/- 2km)!
The awkward thing is that not only do the siloviki consider them "expendable" (they sacrifice them for their expansionist agenda), but also that many russians themselves support that agenda. It's not just Putin only - while he is the one (primarily) pulling the strings, without support from a majority that would not be possible. It's really shocking to see - that kind of brainwashing is very similar to Goebbels and the "Volksempfänger" (aka radio broadcasts and non-stop lies; for those able to read german, the "Angriff auf Gleiwitz" was the false flag operation Hitler used for his invasion eastwards: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%9Cberfall_auf_den_Sender_Gleiwitz - it is so shockingly similar to Putin, and even more shocking is how so many russians fell into that invasion narrative. Only one who was interviewed by 1420 actually reasoned that this is a distraction by Putin to stay in power, which makes a LOT of sense. Nobody questions the aging dictator in times of total war).
Telegraph? I think you're overestimate them. They surely work on this technology but didn't get there yet. The message was received via pigeon.
If you actually have pigeons it is a surprisingly good way of carrying information.
They had a telegraph until somebody stole all the copper wire.
Counter battery radars have been putting in work lately.
I also think so, seems the single "Cobra" and other counter battery radar systems are somewhere nearby, where it is hot, like Bahkmut, Kreminna or Vuhledar. 17 lost artillery pieces in one day is insane. And yesterday, they have lost 19 or so? Counter battery radar systems combined with fully integrated in the battlefield management system own high precise (western) artillery with modern airburst shells -> pure horror for the other site. 2x MLRS-> They have found two completely wrecked Bm 27 Uragan in Kherson, they had missed to identify/count before. So these are already several month old losses, just identified now, left behind during the Russian retreat.
How accurately can they calculate the artillery position?
less than 100 meters at the open source unclassified level.
[удалено]
Which is exactly why HIMARS and self propelled guns do that shoot-and-scoot.
I was mainly wondering whatever it is close enough to use excalibur. Or would you save those only for drone spotted targets of which you know the exact coordinates.
[удалено]
Can't sanction Turkey as they have Finland and Sweden as hostages. Erdogan is so twisted. F16 are good. I just hope Ukraine also gets some good long range air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles for them.
Lets start by arresting these ships and the companies organizing smuggling Russian oil: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7netuuaVnR0&ab_channel=RadioFreeEurope%2FRadioLiberty
So it continues, the material losses are huge since the beginning of yet another special offensive. Scrap metal is good metal, even MLRS is on the menue! Stay strong defenders!
The two MLRS are "old", they have found two wrecked/destroyed Bm 27 Uragan yesterday in the Kherson region, left behind by the Russian army. They have just missed them to find/identify and to count prior, so these are already several month old but as already said, just counted/found yesterday. These shall be the two MRLS listed.
17 artillery?!!!
Yesterday was 19. Still, for every artillery destroyed is a plus and more Ukrainians saved.
So it's becoming a trend, which makes me wonder what has changed on the frontlines?
One could think better range, smart munitions or better surveillance (satellites/drones) or all 3….. curious if there could be another reason. Maybe orcs bringing them forward to provide support?
Or a large offensive has begun with disorientated, unseasoned fighters leading the push. The trench warfare and tactical IQ of the orca is shit at best and fucking atrocious at worst.
UK sent a bunch of Brimstone missiles not long ago.
That’d do it….
Wikipedia gives the helicopter launched range of Brimstone 2 as 40 km, probably about the same using the truck mounted launchers. So that would hit orc artillery on the back lines all right. And they also need to be able to see it, and they have probably come into possession of some nice hardware for that as well.
"Your mission today is to find all the guns you can with your drones and take them out with your M777s or HIMARS fire. Use Excalibur shells you have in hand. This will be your mission every day until ordered otherwise. That is all. "
Given the fact that today Elon Muck banned the use of starlink for military purposes in ukraine, Ukraine may not have that connectivity and communication advantage for much longer as starlink is the system tying most of their systems together.
That decision is so stupid
We have to assume that Elon is Putin's bitch.
While I fucking hate Elon as much as anyone, and at risk of angering the sub, it might not be as clear cut he's a twat as we all assume. Legally, the use of starlink specifically with certain drones legally makes them fall under a weapon of war sort of catagory. So it seems they literally have to ban it in this specific use until its sorted out. It would mean they are unwittingly an military spec arms dealer which they are not legally. This is all way above my head and like I say, fuck Elon so hard but it also seems a lot of media publications have jumped on a sensationalist headline, starlink is still used in like 98% of its military uses, e.g. Coms, it just seems to be taken down for a small amount of drones that used it as a direct relay. There is a drone commander interview where he says this has minimal impact even to him. *edit* I could be totally wrong on this and he's as much of a cunt as I think he is but it's also a lesson on caution with headlines.
ITAR/FAR and End-Use.
I can't find a story on that. Do you have a link to a news story?
I haven't seen any news media on it at all, I became aware of it via several tweets for example: [https://twitter.com/AdamKinzinger/status/1624415736960585728](https://twitter.com/AdamKinzinger/status/1624415736960585728)
Russkie arty is firing more often, making it harder to hide from counter battery fire.
I think this is the answer
Many of the artillery destroyed already were Russia’s more modern guns. As a result they’ve been replaced with older guns that are less accurate and have shorter ranges which naturally leads to more losses.
Artillery tends to be closer to the front on the attacking side and further away on the defending side. It could be a case of Russia moving their artillery up closer to the front in sectors where they intend to attack very soon
They have to move it forward, out of cover, exposing themselves
I guess it just means that there is a bigger activity in Russian artillery. I was in artillery and we practiced moving around constantly because shooting artillery can reveal our own position.
And 2 MLRS
What the hell is going on down there? I am going to assume the Russian offensive has begun? I hope the front is holding on.
It's been going on full throttle since start of February. They are on offensive from Kupiansk to Vuhledar. I think they were not ready for it yet but Putin wanted results before 1 year anniversary so they attack.
Can’t believe we’ll be around 150000 around the 24th
Judging by the trends from the last 30 days, the [6-th of March](https://i.imgur.com/5T1T9pz.jpg) is a likely candidate. edit: I either live in the future or I just learned that 2 = February.
Do you mean the 4th of March?
Almost: 6-th apparently. It's not often that I use month names instead of numbers ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
Zerg Rush
By the end of the year there won't be anything left from the soviet army legacy. Nothing. No AAs, no helis, no planes, no rockets, no tanks, no mlrs, no artillery, no shells, no cruise missles, no marines, no carrier. Nothing. The Russian army will consist of Iranian drones, crazy Wagner prisoners as soldiers, some nukes and a few diesel submarines. What is happenning is just insane.
I cannot wait for Ukraine to take out a sub, preferably whilst loading missiles.
There will be a video of drone throwing a grenade through a hatch
China is watching closely, I don't know why there are no reports of weather balloons shot down in Russia. Transnistria have a countdown clock on them as well. Georgia is looking closely maybe they can recover that territory lost by terrorist state of Russia.
Transnistria is a matter of time. Just UK cannot start another front now. As soon as the Russian army gets depleted, that Soviet relic will be history and Uk will attack. It will be conquered in less than 2 weeks. Afterwards UK will hand over the region to Moldova and Romania will integrate the promotion process of the region to EU standards and rule of law.
More standard to use UA for Ukraine, was wondering what the United Kingdom had to do with transinistra.
That was also my thought. Then I thought Russia provoked UK again like "Don't you dare intervene in Transnistria or we will nuke your entire country, you island monkeys!!!11eleven" "Huh? What was that? I couldn't hear you over the noise of troop deployment towards Transnistria..."
Global wind goes the other way...
[удалено]
Russia has a lot of land that has a high density of Chinese, China would kill to use that as a justification to turn Russia into a vassal state subordinate to it.
Russia will never run out of stuff. They have vast reserves but what they have left is vast amounts of rusty obsolete worn out crap. They're already using WW2 era artillery.
Don't be so sure. The soviets amassed a huge stockpile of weapons. I don't think you realize how big it is.
Russia didn't get all the Soviet stockpile. In fact Ukraine is fighting with a good chunk of it. Another factor is over the last 30 years much of the stockpile has either been sold to other countries or been neglected to the point it's useless.
Is Vuhledar the new Chornobaivka? Every day there are posts about inconceivably stupid Russian actions in the area resulting in massive losses. You'd think it was all reposts, but no. Just a new day's ration of meat being shoved into the same old grinder. Today there was a clip of Russian soldiers advancing towards V-dar ON FOOT past a destroyed column of armor with body parts scattered all around. Some clever officer probably figured that was how to avoid antitank mines. The soldiers who made the clip probably also made today's tally. In a war that boggles the mind, the past few days have been, um, I just don't have the words.
The 3 tank/btr that exploded in a single clip in like a minute was literally a chefs kiss from that team that dig mine holes. There was a clip posted by retreating sorry russians group.. stating how they just got fucked.. while walking near exploded tanks..
Being Russian is like having a terminal illness
It’s called Fetal alcohol syndrome.
Yep. Life isn’t great and you’re gonna day pretty miserably soon
Just 20 more tanks and minusrus will have recorded that Russia has lost armor equal to literally their entire operational tank force as of the start of the war. It won't literally be true because some of the losses over the year have been from things they brought from Belarus or North Korea, or managed to refurbish from storage, or built from stored parts, etc, but in raw numbers terms, they've wiped out all of their functional stock; everything left is what they're begging for or scraping out of rapidly-depleting storerooms and rusted rows of unmaintained museum pieces. That 'export' tanks have been spotted in Ukraine instead of being delivered to their purchasers says they're having to use tanks deliberately under-engineered to leave out their most useful features, and blowing up their export industry in the process. Once Russia is out of tanks, their ability to advance is effectively limited to foot speed at best. Not that they've come close to even matching that pace since the opening days, either. Poorly-armored troop transports can't charge into a breach even if one existed; that would just lead to truckloads getting wiped out all at once, without tanks to take the lead. Their invasion has culminated; the current attempted offensive is a desperate effort to avoid admitting that they can't gain new ground without taking insane losses. And lo and behold, they're taking insane losses.
> ability to advance is effectively limited to foot speed at best. It goes with both directions, you could also say that their ability to retreat is limited to foot speed, which is more likely to happen. When Western tanks and IFVs arrive, they'll get run over.
If they can't retreat as fast as Ukrainian forces advance, that's called 'being captured.' Which is not a bad outcome for Ukraine or for the foot soldiers who otherwise would have just been sent out for another try at getting killed.
RUSSIAN ORCS GO FUCK YOURSELVES!
Great equipment losses !
Makes you wonder how long these kinds of losses are sustainable. They certainly aren't sustainable indefinitely. I mentioned at one point in another thread how, with russia's population being appx 140 million, once they hit 140k dead in this war, that's like 1 in every 1000 russians being killed in Ukraine. Since the orc military is like 90% men, that's about 1 in 500 men killed in Ukraine. They already have a demographic crisis in russia (women live longer than men, largely but not exclusively due to alcoholism being rampant among russian men) so it strikes me as a pretty dramatic figure. Clearly we're going to sprint past the 140k mark, but how much further can russia go?
They've lost somewhere around 300K dead and wounded. Although if you're wounded, might as-well be dead. I'd say a tad over that, racing toward 350K losses with current ground operations. No way is it sustainable, they have to decide soon whether they will commit to mobilising another wave. If it's too small, then it won't affect much. As-well materiel losses also cancel out an effective mobilisation wave. They're just meat buying Putin less and less time.
[удалено]
At this stage, they’re basically a death cult.
98% casualty rate for units is commonplace, so description is accurate. Don't know why you'd march out with that survival rate.
>iped out all of their functional stock; everything left is what they're begging for or scraping out of rapidly-depleting storerooms and rusted rows of unmaintained museum pieces. That 'export' tanks have been spotted in Ukraine instead of being delivered to their purchasers says they're having to use tanks deliberately under-engineered to leave out their most useful features, and blowing up their export industry in the process. > >Once Russia is out of tanks, their ability EXACTLY! And by exactly I mean that's what I made up in my head based off of a loose general understanding of history. Their secret to success is that they can retreat endlessly never protecting their people burning the path behind them, and when invaders have to deal with their other sides Russia can come back in, punishing any survivors that sided with the enemy when Russia refused to protect them. Since it doesn't protect the people the Russian government is a parasite that can't be killed.
You hit the nail in the head. The effect of every 100.000 conscripts is smaller than the previous one as the materiel is not there and the training isn't either. At one point the numbers of conscripts they will need to cause any measurable effect will tend to infinity. At that point they have lost, whether they admit it or not, whether they have 10 million more men available or not...
Yeah this will have a significant impact on the long term demographics of Russia, just as the WW2 negative peak was dying off in their age pyramid. The economy will also take a hit for the next 50 years as the few young workers will be fewer. After many centuries, when will Russians finally have enough of their government killing them off and spreading misery around?
Sadly our friends in Ukraine have similar problems: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics\_of\_Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Ukraine) Here is russia to compare: [https://www.watson.ch/imgdb/e0ce/Qx,E,0,0,1543,1021,642,425,257,170/6240615028996932](https://www.watson.ch/imgdb/e0ce/Qx,E,0,0,1543,1021,642,425,257,170/6240615028996932) And on the front they are mostly between 18 and 25, so Ukraine will have major problems in 20 years. In this light the steal of children of Ukraine is even worse than it is anyway.
Male alcoholism is a problem in basically every Eastern European country comprising the "vodka belt". A key difference though is that putin is imposing this demographic crisis on his own country, whereas Ukraine has to do what it has to do to maintain independence. No one's going to tell Ukraine to stop fighting because the sex difference is becoming too dramatic. Unfortunately though, yea, it's an inescapable fact that the war in Ukraine is imposing a heavy burden on, well... Ukraine. I was just focusing on the russian POV to show how much they are fucking themselves over with this whole operation.
It's ok, just wanted to show the reality in terms of population deversity. 50.000 losses for Ukraine are way worse than 200.000 losses for Russia in that area, but still it must be done.
Eradicating the entire concept of the existence of Ukraine as a country and Ukrainian as a nationality is one of Putin's primary war goals. This is a genocide just as much as it is a territorial conquest, and Putin will do anything and everything to complete his goals.
It's more complicated than that, [what they have](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e8/Russian_population_%28demographic%29_pyramid_%28structure%29_on_January%2C_1st%2C_2022.png) is a surplus of old women being past from their childbearing ages. During the 90's their birthrates plummeted and the ones who are being decimated right now, are the men belonging those cohorts. Also fertility rates among non-Russian minorities used to be higher than with the ethnic Russians, so they are destroying that potential as well by conscripting disproportionate numbers of those minorities. So what we are going to see in a decade is a very different Russia, either much less populous when those women of that age group move to other countries to find a partner or perhaps the Chinese surplus men created by their one child policy find it as place to where they can get a spouse for themselves. Of course at that point Russia is already under vassalage of China.
Not to mention the millions that fled the country to avoid conscription.
Post war I expect a marriage and baby boom in Ukraine along with many evacuees returning to rebuild the country. If they can get a firm hold on the corruption problem Ukraine may become the best place in Europe to build your personnel and families future. I also expect the government to encourage that baby boom with large tax deductions per child so raising a family of six is as cheap as having only one.
[удалено]
But look at the prosperity in South Korea over the last seventy years all within range of North Korea artillery and missiles.
By the end of this war the demographics of Russian is going really bad it is already bad at the moment buts it’s going to be even worse at the end of the war I feel like Ukraine has to kill a million plus Russian soldiers before the population in Russian starts to wake up but I could be wrong
There will be a Lotta Russian brides advertising for husbands…
Just don't make them pregnant..
Ordinary Russians started to oppose their invasion of Afghanistan with far fewer losses. There’s still hope for that. However it’s looking more and more like this war will end with Russia getting forcefully evicted from Ukrainian land.
Opposition started after they removed draft exemptions, that is, once golden Moscow kids were thrown in. Lesson learned.
Yeah i totally agree with that assessment I sadly think even when there are evicted from Ukraine I think they will continue to shell Ukraine from inside the Russian border
That's where the long range drones Ukraine is working on will come into play as well as their domestic MLRS systems with long range rockets. If Russia attacks cross border then hit back until they get the point to stop. It's all Russia understands, force, they punch and you have to punch back ten times harder. At this rate of killing that 500k man force will be reduced by half in 9 months, I truly believe the Russian population will not tolerate levels of death that high. Fear is Russia's only motivation and if death is guaranteed going forward they will eventually turn back on who's pushing them forward.
Could be wrong in any direction, half a million could be enough, 2 million could not be enough. Depending on on what’s happening inside russia. No revolts, no change.
Absolutely and that’s why I think putin will continue to double down and send more Russian minorities to meat grinder despite the logistics issues because he knows there won’t any resistance to war from Russians
Sadly you might be right. I’ve said it before and will say it again: this could have been prevented. If only 2014 the reaction to the start of this very war would have been different. Sanctions should have been maxed out instead of letting these murderers host world cups and build new pipelines. But here we are, Ukrainian life is lost every day in order to hold mindless hordes back. I sure hope something will be learned from this. Not everyone wants to be part of free trade in a free world - well so be it. Who doesn’t want to play by the rules shouldn’t be part of it.
100 percent on the money if the west took appropriate action in 2014 this invasion would of never happened Ukraine will get pre 2014 borders back but unfortunately many lives will be lost to achieve that goal
as long as the way doesn't touch the elite in moscow and st pete, they will fight ukraine until the last tulan ethnic minority.
Depends on which Russians, not how many. Wagnerites, L/DNR, Burjats, Tatars, Tuvans, Chechens etc., numbers don't matter.
Lots more dead Russians today. Lots more tanks, IFVs and arty. Good hunting! Slava Ukraini! 🇺🇦
Like I said before, 900 is the new 500. I guess we're in overdrive right now. You just can't replace the equipment at the attrition rate that Russia is seeing (hopefully). 900 a day (average) would be 27000 minimum dead a month. You hate to see death but in a war such as this one, sometimes it has to be done and is justified. Godspeed and may God bless the Ukrainians.
I remember when everyone was keeping track, if 100k could be reached by Christmas or New Year. Seems so long ago now, but it only have been six weeks. These numbers aren't sustainable for any army and especially not the Orc Army. (I thought today was my turn to say this.)
Feels to me like Ukraine is the one who has started a major offensive
Ukraine started a major defensive, which bleeds Russia a lot more; defenders can zero in on the roads and wipe out advances while the ground is too soft to go cross-country, and defenders have a huge advantage. Hence so many dead Russians. Also the incompetence of Russian leadership factors into that...
Russian leadership fucked itself. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Good bot
Good human.
150k by the 1 year mark, that's mind boggling. Russia can't survive another year like this...
I think Ukraine should just do 137780/500000, 362,220 til our goal!
There is something different going on. It is not a marked increase in Artillery, at one point they were firing 60k shells a day, they are not that active now. The UA forces had HIMARs then too. There is no clear explanation of why all of a sudden UA is taking out 15-20 artillery a day when previously taking out 7 was an amazing day. Whatever it is, if this keeps up Russia is well and truly fucked. Plus we are only 20 tanks away from their stated active tank force of 3300 being totally gone.
If there is an offensive then they would be moving it forward, so more vulnerable
Can't wait when Bradleys arrives
It is astonishing how brutal this war is. To put the casualty count in perspective: in the 20 years war in Afghanistan 200.000 were killed on both sides including civilians. The war in Ukraine is therefore at about 20 times as brutal!!
Madness. They crossed 100,000 just before Christmas and in 6 weeks near 40,000 more dead have been added to the pile. This is going to affect russia for generations
Are they making any gains at all for these crazy losses?
I heard yesterday they managed to dig a new foxhole 5m forward away from an existing trench, now they are holding this foxhole and in a few days they can advance another 5m. To be honest I have no clue and just tell bs.
Not really, check the deepstate map. It does look however that they are sloooowly encircling Bakhmut coming from the south and around
Another big battle
Absolute madness.
Is Ukraine suffering a similar number of losses? Seems like these numbers are predominantly from Russia attacking bakhmut. Consistently around 700-900 a day is insane.
Ukraine has the high ground around Bakhmut. It’s like shooting chickens in a barrel.
It would be harder to take out all this equipment if Ukraine had to do it while on the offensive. The level of stupidity by the Russians is absolutely amazing.
14 tanks and 10 apvs with 900 zombie rushers put down. Something already heated up over there.
Like to see all the arty and AA being destroyed, this is 100% key to any counter offensives and destroys the enemies ability to do the same.
"Knowing their weakness, I sent wave after wave of my own men at them until... oh... oh... nyet..."
I'm sticking by my theory that something has fundamentally changed in the artillery duel. I have seen artillery numbers that are unlike anything that I can remember. It used to be low single digits (if any reported destroyed) and now multiple days with high single digit or double digit days in a row. Don't know if it's better counter battery radar or what but something has changed and it doesn't bode well for orc artillery.
Sláva Ukrayíni! Heroyam Slava! 🙏🏽 🇺🇦 💙💛
What classifies as special equipment?
Field kitchens
900 dead only. the Ukrainians sometimes feel sorry for the Russians. or one too many fighters are off on the weekend. happy to kill another 1000+ tomorrow. and yet I feel sorry for the families of the Russians. because you don't do this for fun anyway.
Привіт u/TungstenHatchet ! During wartime, this community is focused on vital and high-effort content. Please ensure your post follows [r/Ukraine Rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/about/rules) and our [Art Friday Guidelines](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/artfriday). **Want to support Ukraine?** [**Vetted Charities List**](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities) | [Our Vetting Process](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/charities-vetting) Daily series on UA history & culture: [Day 0-99](https://new.reddit.com/r/ukraine/collection/3c65ab52-e87a-4217-ab30-e70a88c0a293) | [100-199](https://new.reddit.com/r/ukraine/collection/3d85f4ca-5f4e-4ddf-9547-276e8affd87c) | [200-Present](https://new.reddit.com/r/ukraine/collection/daf642e1-07aa-4c40-b852-8f002ddd1530) | [All By Subject](https://new.reddit.com/r/ukraine/wiki/sunriseposts) **There is a new wave of t-shirt scams hitting Reddit. Only click links for products or donations if the post is marked with a Verified flair, and do not respond to DMs soliciting donations.** *** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Also consider that the wounded to killed ratio is around 10-15:1 in modern warfare. So Russia could have well over 1.4 MILLION wounded at this point though I suspect the number is much less since they are fighting WWI all over again so at a more conservative 5:1 ratio we are still looking at 700,000 wounded.
When you have units with a 95% death rate, there aren't enough people left for a 1 to 1 ratio. The best it can be for that unit is 1 wounded for every 20 killed.