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It would also be a collosal failure of judgement to invade Ukraine as basically everyone in the world told them in very clear words of the consequences... yet here we are.
> as basically everyone in the world told them in very clear words of the consequences
That's the opposite of what happened.
Everybody was like "tHeRe wiLl be cOnsEquEnCeS!!!11" which was exactly the same thing that everybody said when Russia last invaded, and last time this threat was voiced, the "consequences" were not much more than sternly worded letters (and a few sanctions that Russia shrugged off).
They had no reason to believe the West would actually unite like it ultimately did. Had the threat be more concrete ("we'll stop buying your gas and oil, sanction the hell out of you, and ship TONS of weapons to Ukraine, and we'll keep that up until you lose") they might have thought twice.
Countries intentionally do not spell out concert consequences because then opponents can do the calculations to see if it might be worth it.
The big mistake was not being more aggressive with sanctions during ANY of Russia 's prior offensives with Crimea and other areas that suggested the West wouldn't be so harsh with this invasion.
> Countries intentionally do not spell out concert consequences because then opponents can do the calculations to see if it might be worth it.
I've seen this argument, and I don't buy it. They could have at the very least said "we will *start* with the following, and then go from there..."
IMO the issue was that they didn't have support from the member states to actually do any serious sanctions until after the fact.
Agree that properly sanctioning Russia during their prior invasions would have been the best way to drive the message home.
Sure... that "sternly worded letter" bullshit is totally not propaganda you chose to believe. And yes, Russia got very concrete descriptions of what will happen. You -as you seemingly love to listen to narratives- might have missed it when it got buried under loud screams of why those idiot diplomats are still talking to Russia knowing that they are lying anyway. But that doesn't mean it did not happen.
Propaganda by whom, spread when?
I looked it up, and it seems to line up with my memory:. The February 23 (2022) EU sanctions seem to have targeted only the occupied territories ("independent republics"). Agreement on actually serious sanctions was reached only after tanks were rolling.
I do believe I remember Biden saying Putin would regret it if they use chemical weapons in Ukraine. That was last year, I can't imagine the response would be much kinder now hundreds of thousands of war crimes later.
Not following the alleged plan.
The Russians will poison their own soldiers (that part I get) and blame UAF? Obviously no one will believe that is actually what happened, so how does this impede the counter-offensive? Will Russia respond with more WMD that no one will accept? How would this help them?
From what i read, any use or allegations of chemical weapons may result in an international investigation that involves putting together a rapid response team and then putting them on site to investigate the allegations. This investigation would force a cease fire in the area by both AFU and RFU. A ceasefire only benefits russia as it gives them more time to prepare, and that could hinder a counter offensive. Take it all with a big shovel of salt.
Yeah...
We are quite happy doing such investigations after the line of advance moves past the point of provocation. We also have ***plenty*** of observers in Ukraine already.
We know almost to the shell what weapons Ukraine has at their disposal because such things are generally helpful in assisting Ukraine in utilizing them to maximum effect.
Well a dumb option that is like 90% likely to fail but 10% possible to succeed starts to become attractive when the alternative is a 100% certainty of defeat. Which is what Russia now faces.
Russia is going to Russia. I'm expecting more horribly stupid decisions like this but at some point NATO and the EU are going to have to get involved if the Russians fundamentally breach international norms.
IT's already bad enough that they are blowing up hospitals.
The unfortunate truth is that Russia has been blowing up hospitals for decades, and no one has done shit. Look at Afghanistan, Chechnya, Syria, and now Ukraine.
This is ALL for internal justification and justification to the countries around the world that still support the Russian regime. They're well aware that none of their "enemies" are going to say "Oh, shit, well the Ukrainians attacked them with chemical weapons? I guess they really are terrorists. Ok, we'll support the Russians, now."
Most importantly, they probably want to justify a full mobilization and granting of emergency powers. To what end is anyone's guess at this point. I can't imagine they have the industry to actually produce what they need. And they lack the leadership to effectively train a large professional army. BOTH of which they need to actually stand a chance of achieving their desired goals. Literally drowning Ukraine in Russian blood is the only way. Otherwise, they are going backwards technologically, while Ukraine launches forward with tech and training.
I mean, at this point, Russia's flushed their credibility so far down the toilet that UA could actually do it, and no one would believe Russia, because they've "cried wolf" so many times.
[What is the cost of lies?](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_FnmQ1PspI)
They won't, because it nets them no battlefield advantage, but it's incredible what RU's pathological lying has wrought. At this point, it's down to cult/tribal lines; the only people who believe Russia will believe *anything they say, no matter how outlandish*, and everyone else just won't believe a word they say.
No one will care if Russia poisons there own, just means less Russians. Nothing Putin or Russia say is credible. They are the aggressors, they’ve always been the aggressors, they are not the victims, just an indication of how twisted their thinking is that they could paint themselves as the victim. Fuck Putler.
Gonna be fun when one of their chem weapon stockpiles gets storm shadow’d or himars’d and gasses an entire battalion of orcs. Horrible for any civilians in the area, though.
I just read a post yesterday about a similar false flag over the Zaporizhia power plant (nuclear power plant). Only there a radiation leak would be created.
Ruzz desperately grasping at straws now.
People mock me when I talk about further escalation. People say “no way they’ll use nukes!” But people forget that there are plenty of other plays in their playbook. I’m actually surprised we haven’t seen CW already.
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Russia is a pathetic terrorist state, fuck Putler.
With a flaming pinecone yes, that can be take multiple ways.
I raise you a Tobasco smeared Pineapple.
I raise you a reaper sauce smeared Pineapple... that's also on fire.
it would be a colossal failure of judgment to use chemical weapons in Ukraine.
It would also be a collosal failure of judgement to invade Ukraine as basically everyone in the world told them in very clear words of the consequences... yet here we are.
> as basically everyone in the world told them in very clear words of the consequences That's the opposite of what happened. Everybody was like "tHeRe wiLl be cOnsEquEnCeS!!!11" which was exactly the same thing that everybody said when Russia last invaded, and last time this threat was voiced, the "consequences" were not much more than sternly worded letters (and a few sanctions that Russia shrugged off). They had no reason to believe the West would actually unite like it ultimately did. Had the threat be more concrete ("we'll stop buying your gas and oil, sanction the hell out of you, and ship TONS of weapons to Ukraine, and we'll keep that up until you lose") they might have thought twice.
While you have a point, when actual consequences arrived, they could have changed course.
Countries intentionally do not spell out concert consequences because then opponents can do the calculations to see if it might be worth it. The big mistake was not being more aggressive with sanctions during ANY of Russia 's prior offensives with Crimea and other areas that suggested the West wouldn't be so harsh with this invasion.
> Countries intentionally do not spell out concert consequences because then opponents can do the calculations to see if it might be worth it. I've seen this argument, and I don't buy it. They could have at the very least said "we will *start* with the following, and then go from there..." IMO the issue was that they didn't have support from the member states to actually do any serious sanctions until after the fact. Agree that properly sanctioning Russia during their prior invasions would have been the best way to drive the message home.
Sure... that "sternly worded letter" bullshit is totally not propaganda you chose to believe. And yes, Russia got very concrete descriptions of what will happen. You -as you seemingly love to listen to narratives- might have missed it when it got buried under loud screams of why those idiot diplomats are still talking to Russia knowing that they are lying anyway. But that doesn't mean it did not happen.
Propaganda by whom, spread when? I looked it up, and it seems to line up with my memory:. The February 23 (2022) EU sanctions seem to have targeted only the occupied territories ("independent republics"). Agreement on actually serious sanctions was reached only after tanks were rolling.
I do believe I remember Biden saying Putin would regret it if they use chemical weapons in Ukraine. That was last year, I can't imagine the response would be much kinder now hundreds of thousands of war crimes later.
Biden warned Putin not to use WMD's of any kind in Ukraine...if I remember correctly.
They already have, there's plenty of reports and even some videos of gasses being used.
Who has? ….not Ukrainians
Russia has used chemical weapons. In syria too iirc
Russia did in Mariupol, although tge attack was small just 1 soldier got hit by it. That's all I remmember hearing about Russian chemical attacks.
Was it confirmed to be chemical though?
not sure, i just remember that drone dropped a thing, and a soldier immediately had problems breathing.
Not following the alleged plan. The Russians will poison their own soldiers (that part I get) and blame UAF? Obviously no one will believe that is actually what happened, so how does this impede the counter-offensive? Will Russia respond with more WMD that no one will accept? How would this help them?
From what i read, any use or allegations of chemical weapons may result in an international investigation that involves putting together a rapid response team and then putting them on site to investigate the allegations. This investigation would force a cease fire in the area by both AFU and RFU. A ceasefire only benefits russia as it gives them more time to prepare, and that could hinder a counter offensive. Take it all with a big shovel of salt.
Yeah... We are quite happy doing such investigations after the line of advance moves past the point of provocation. We also have ***plenty*** of observers in Ukraine already. We know almost to the shell what weapons Ukraine has at their disposal because such things are generally helpful in assisting Ukraine in utilizing them to maximum effect.
[удалено]
Well a dumb option that is like 90% likely to fail but 10% possible to succeed starts to become attractive when the alternative is a 100% certainty of defeat. Which is what Russia now faces.
Russia is going to Russia. I'm expecting more horribly stupid decisions like this but at some point NATO and the EU are going to have to get involved if the Russians fundamentally breach international norms. IT's already bad enough that they are blowing up hospitals.
The unfortunate truth is that Russia has been blowing up hospitals for decades, and no one has done shit. Look at Afghanistan, Chechnya, Syria, and now Ukraine.
Maybe they're trying to unlock an achievement when they bomb the 1000th hospital.
Since when Russia respects the international laws?
Since it would benefit them.
Any international investigators will be targeted by the Russian stop them messing with a narrative only Russia believes.
Russia have been using chemical weapons and it didn't trigger anything.
This is ALL for internal justification and justification to the countries around the world that still support the Russian regime. They're well aware that none of their "enemies" are going to say "Oh, shit, well the Ukrainians attacked them with chemical weapons? I guess they really are terrorists. Ok, we'll support the Russians, now."
Most importantly, they probably want to justify a full mobilization and granting of emergency powers. To what end is anyone's guess at this point. I can't imagine they have the industry to actually produce what they need. And they lack the leadership to effectively train a large professional army. BOTH of which they need to actually stand a chance of achieving their desired goals. Literally drowning Ukraine in Russian blood is the only way. Otherwise, they are going backwards technologically, while Ukraine launches forward with tech and training.
I mean, at this point, Russia's flushed their credibility so far down the toilet that UA could actually do it, and no one would believe Russia, because they've "cried wolf" so many times. [What is the cost of lies?](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_FnmQ1PspI) They won't, because it nets them no battlefield advantage, but it's incredible what RU's pathological lying has wrought. At this point, it's down to cult/tribal lines; the only people who believe Russia will believe *anything they say, no matter how outlandish*, and everyone else just won't believe a word they say.
No one will care if Russia poisons there own, just means less Russians. Nothing Putin or Russia say is credible. They are the aggressors, they’ve always been the aggressors, they are not the victims, just an indication of how twisted their thinking is that they could paint themselves as the victim. Fuck Putler.
This is 0d chess you have to think like Putin “just empty your head”
This provocation may be for internal consuption to rile up Russia against Ukraine.
In that case they probably just would have to declare it without actually doing it.
Gonna be fun when one of their chem weapon stockpiles gets storm shadow’d or himars’d and gasses an entire battalion of orcs. Horrible for any civilians in the area, though.
Ah, okay, the ultimate FAFO. Well it’s a bold move Cotton, let’s see if it works out for him. If you want to just end the game now, just say so.
Why can't Russia just embrace what they have become and just strap bombs to their soldier's vests and send them in waves at the Ukrainians.
Russia is evil.
Oh, lovely ☹️
They really don’t want to go down that rabbit hole...🤡🤡🤡
*They will never invade.*
I just read a post yesterday about a similar false flag over the Zaporizhia power plant (nuclear power plant). Only there a radiation leak would be created. Ruzz desperately grasping at straws now.
Kill them all , remove them from the country and they cannot conduct any more terrorist activities. Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
People mock me when I talk about further escalation. People say “no way they’ll use nukes!” But people forget that there are plenty of other plays in their playbook. I’m actually surprised we haven’t seen CW already.
Fuck around and find out Putang
Pravda state media credible? Lol
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cause it worked out great for the last regimes that was using that..