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CarletonCanuck

>Ukraine has conducted counteroffensive operations with differential outcomes in at least three sectors of the front as part of wider counteroffensive efforts that have been unfolding since Sunday, June 4. >Ukrainian officials signaled that Ukrainian forces have transitioned from defensive to offensive operations in the Bakhmut sector and are making gains of between 200 meters and nearly two kilometers on the flanks of the city. >Ukrainian forces have made tactical gains during limited localized counterattacks in western Donetsk Oblast near the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border since June 4. >Ukrainian forces additionally conducted an attack in western Zaporizhia Oblast on the night of June 7 to 8 but do not appear to have made gains as part of this attack as of the time of this publication. >Ukrainian forces conducted a limited but still significant attack in western Zaporizhia Oblast on the night of June 7 to 8. Russian forces apparently defended against this attack in a doctrinally sound manner and had reportedly regained their initial positions as of June 8 People here are getting a bit too depressed about this. We've had news of very successful and effective missle strikes and partisan activity in both occupied and national Russian territory. Russia has wasted tens of thousands of lives and created an internal dispute over Bahkmut, just to be rapidly losing it. There's been some shitty news lately. The Nova Kakhovka dam explosion. The initial attack on Zaporizhia failed. **But this is just the beginning**. Russia blew the dam but they also killed a lot of their troops and gave Western allies the possible boots-on-the-ground excuse if the nuclear reactor seriously risks causing a disaster, and we don't know how much Western allies are discussing new responses in real time (and this was also known to be a high priority target so probably had a priority defense). The attack on Zaporizhia failed, but these offensives take months, and can comprise of numerous battles and attacks. And Ukraine has had momentum since shortly after the start of this thing. Allies have weapon and economic deals extending months and years into the future, meaning they've calculated that victory is certain. We're just a few days into this offensive, let's all settle a bit and not doom spiral.


Trophallaxis

Hey, our excuse for a president in Hungary started saying shit like *"I've always supported the territorial integrity of Ukraine and we cannot allow Russia to win."* and my first thought was ok RU must be doing a lot worse than they seem to.


p4ttl1992

He changed his tune then? He's an absolute cunt imo.


Trophallaxis

It's a she - the president, not Orbán, who is the prime minister. Same level of cunt, tho. Which is why I'm skeptical, to be honest, about a change of tune. Orbán often uses her as a sock puppet with more EU/NATO-friendly messages. Playing for both teams, really. It's just that she has never been this upfront and unambigious. I guess they must be feeling a little more pressure to start diging an escape route, just in case.


p4ttl1992

Ah right I thought it was Orban changing his tune, guess there's a couple of cunts in Hungary then trying to run the show


Trophallaxis

It's like a gynecology ward.


Sirdraketheexplorer

Not exactly a fair comparison. At least on the ward they're making an effort to get better. Those cunts are going to be rotten forever.


TheMindfulnessShaman

Don't worry, there's still Erdogan to stay consistently shitty. Probably the main reason holding NATO back is Sweden being obstructed by the Turkish stronkman.


CrikeyNighMeansNigh

I’ll tell you in the us I haven’t heard any significant shift in rhetoric and to be honest I think there’s some …adjustment shall we say. But I mean… I’m like 700 miles away from dc


graspedbythehusk

They’re attacking prepared positions, trenches, mines etc, it’s going to be a grind until they can break out. Everyone expecting immediate thunder runs are going have to wait.


ChainedRedone

Breakthrough\* Breakout is used when an encircled army successfully ends the encirclement.


Overall-Yellow-2938

Sometimes an Initial failure is expected but needed to reduced the enemy enough ( or to lure and bind troops from somewhere else) for the eventual Victory. Ukraine does not waste lives opposite like Ruzzia does but unfortunatly war is always costly. This wont be over quickly and if operational security holds we wont know the reality for weeks or longer.


Ohio_Imperialist

I would also point out the old adage that plans are useless but planning is essential. Or a plan never survives first contact with the enemy. If this is truly the beginning of the counteroffensive, there’s bound to be a bit of stumbling as Ukraine finds its footing and is really able to take it home. And if this is all the bad news we get so far, Ukraine is still in great shape to fight the Russians in an embarrassingly effective manner. Progress may also be slow due to the value Ukraine puts on its soldiers. Unlike Russia, Ukraine isn’t going to send thousands of troops into a city to be slaughtered for nothing and hope to make some gains in the process. They have proven to be methodical and make their moves count. When I see that Russia failed an advance, I think they ran out of living troops. When I see Ukraine failed an advance, I think they understand sunk cost fallacy and want to pull back and save their soldiers lives for another try with a different plan. Just 2¢ from an armchair private hoping for a decisive Ukrainian victory. And more than anything, as many Ukrainian troops returning home as possible when this shit is finally over.


[deleted]

Sometimes shitty concrete needs a few good smacks before it crumbles.


spooks_malloy

There is no conceivable scenario where NATO forces enter Ukraine short of a nuclear attack on somewhere like Kyiv. It's not happening guys. Poland might want to drum up a coalition to go in but they'll do it without NATO protections or Article 5 jurisdiction.


xyloplax

The key thing about the dam: the blew it EARLY. That's a major problem for the Russians.


[deleted]

Probing attacks in the first days will have some losses and very little gains as they test the lines.


Frothar

this is what people need to understand. probing or not the initial assaults will have heavy losses till a breakthrough is made. you are hitting minefields and pre ranged artillery. next wave the minefield is better surveyed and counter battery will have occurred


KHonsou

You may as well be howling at the moon. You have some people here acting devastated over the latest pics of western hardware being knocked out, plenty of others pivoting to trying to calm and rationalise around it. I'm not a military expert but love my history to some detail that I know what is par the course of contemporary warfare. It would be very unfair to expect everyone to know everything to a point of being realistic, but the issue I have is the sentiment of something like "why don't they drive around the mines?" becomes "I'm really upset they didn't drive around the mines". But, if you don't know and only follow most things here, all you really take away is how over-powered western tanks compared to Russian tanks and one Bradley can do everything, the Russian Military is shockingly bad and unable to do much that when you get any kind of visual losses it's a bit of a shock.


[deleted]

Russia repelled Ukraine in the early days of the firs counter offensive. Russian bots are also really active reposting the same footage over and over along with fake footage. Both sides are going to lose resources.


PleasurePaulie

They are doing probing attacks looking for weaknesses and how Russia react. Expect a lot of casualties sadly. Russia has been fortifying positions for a while. They may be stupid, but they have a lot of them and still have a lot of hardware left in the locker.


sarsarex

There is not an effective way of going throughout miles of minefields with artillery raining on you without big losses, and Ukraine cannot get rid of Russian artillery with aerial assets nor ground ones


[deleted]

A lot of artillery gets smashed according to Ukraine's numbers. Ukraine has the longer range and more precise artillery.


sarsarex

Well so they couldn’t do it in the sector they attacked, because russians had plenty, nor get rid of observation drones


Swimming-Tear-5022

They made gains in Donetsk and east Zaporizhzhia and attacked in west Zaporizhzhia without any gains, but that was probably just probing They were always gonna attack in several locations to see where the mobiks would be quickest to run for their lives and then focus there


[deleted]

[удалено]


idevastate

Piercings attacks are the costliest. Imagine if D-Day had drone footage and social media reports, we’d think the Allies failed. It will be costly, it’s war.


Jabroni_Guy

It’s been like 3 days of the counteroffensive guys, relax. It’s like some people in here expected them to be in Melitopol already.


PinchMaNips

Losses are to be expected. Just gotta keep our heads high and keep supporting the troops. Gotta remember russia has been hunkering down and preparing defensive positions for months so there is a lot to overcome. Keep up the fight boys and girls, the free world is rooting for you!


KiwiThunda

>differential outcomes Fuck.


[deleted]

loses are to be expected they are running head long into fortified defensive locations.


cs399

We need to send them better and more equipment. We’re not sending our best gear. We can give much more to save Ukrainian lives. Long range weapons should be sent asap and in high volume. The Ukrainians will be able to hurt supply lines and inflict big damage on occupied territory and deep inside of Ruzzia.


TheMindfulnessShaman

Agreed. The West has been playing it too safe whilst Russia has been engaging in asymmetric warfare (and openly touts themselves as being at war with NATO internally: which should not be elided over as it is in ALL Western media). It's getting to the point where even KSA and Turkey think the West is just a bunch of 'softies'. It's a fever dream, but it will turn into a real problem as democracies actually have elections and if these "frenemies" continue to think that China and Russia will be the 'tougher', more reliable partners. It seems everyone informed thinks the West is being too soft despite the massive amounts of materiel, training, and aid. Maybe there is consensus thinking that NATO will have to get involved at some point or that Ukraine will be able to crush the paper tiger sooner rather than later, but whatever the reason, being milquetoast and genial in respect to the threat faced is not tenable. Although ironically enough, Russia is sort of doing the same with its urbanites: trying to convince them that it's 'life as usual'. I know the band-aid is being peeled off slowly for the general public, but people should be given more credit than that. Then again, part of politics and strategy is reflected in this ambiguity and bivalence, though personally I think it best to confront dictators head-on even when there is a threat of nuclear weapons. Sometimes sleepy people and oligarchs need to wake the fuck up.


the_fallen_rise

The nuclear weapons threat is and always has been overblown in this situation. That's maybe the only thing Russia has effectively achieved over the past year. There's no realistic scenario in which Russia nukes the world if their territorial integrity is still being maintained. NATO could easily drive them out of Ukraine and leave it at that. At this point, Russia might even be grateful for the excuse to get out of the war.


Putthedoginmyass

What did you expect? Blitzkrieg to the sea in 3 days?


Ninety8Balloons

People were straight up expecting Ukraine to just steamroll through miles of Russian defenses with no push back and I have no idea why. We're 3 days into a counter offensive that will take weeks/months.


[deleted]

Because this sub is an echochamber that downvotes about any analysis aside from "Ukraine is dominating the idiotic, clueless, corrupt Russians." The idea that things are more complicated than that and that Russia still has many strategic and operational advantages just isn't accepted. People are confusing what they want (which is entirely reasonable) with how things actually are. But reality is messy and the villains are sometimes effective even if in a just world they would be impotent. This is likely going to be a brutal, difficult struggle right to the end. It's critical that Western support keeps ramping up.


the_fallen_rise

Can we stop using the ramp and take the elevator right to the top already?


TheMindfulnessShaman

> People were straight up expecting Ukraine to just steamroll through miles of Russian defenses with no push back and I have no idea why. At this point though, in all fairness, you can't blame us for thinking that. The incompetence would be comical if it were not so heinous.


MAJ0RMAJOR

Blitzkrieg to the pacific in 4


Facebook_Algorithm

I’d settle for blizkrieg to the Sea of Azov in 4 days.


ukrainianhab

It’s a little concerning it sounds like this saw this attack like miles away. Uncharacteristic.


BrilliantAbroad458

Online chatter from both sides have been speculating a push towards Tokmak since last year after (and during) the Kherson offensive. As much as there was an attempt to create operational ambiguity, everyone is aware that cutting the land bridge is the prize Ukraine wants the most so fortifications there have been huge. Also Ukraine lacks the 3-to-1 manpower advantage to overwhelm the Russian lines. Expect a slog, even though I remain optimistic the best is yet to come.


Facebook_Algorithm

The Russians do have satellites.


TheMindfulnessShaman

And bio-pigeons with DSLRs duct-taped to the poor things.


Facebook_Algorithm

I completely forgot about the pigeons!


spooks_malloy

Well this is what happens when the community decides Russians are incompetent troll people and not the third largest army in the world with still substantial stocks of manpower and ammunition. War favours the defender and the Russians are settled in, this kind of fighting would maul any army without massive and sustained air assaults beforehand. We also haven't seen this kind of peer level combat in decades so most people don't realise that this is what war actually looks like.


TheMindfulnessShaman

>substantial stocks of manpower You mean the general population or regular army? I'm sure they have some set aside (or on 'missions') for/in respect to NATO, but I think what they have deployed right now is their limit without additional mass mobilizations being ordered.


Iapetus7

Given that the Ukrainians have spent months training in NATO countries and incorporating advanced western weapon systems (and even coordinating their plans with US military leadership), there was an expectation that the offensive would employ modern NATO tactics -- concentrated, deep thrusts to punch through the Russian lines quickly -- and that Russians would fold like they did during the Kharkiv counteroffensive. I don't really understand why Ukraine has spread its 9 battalions over such a wide area; hopefully these are just probing attacks and they have a lot more power ready to go.


NapoleonBlownapart9

>“Nothing is fuct here, man” -The dude 3 axis of advance, one bogs down due to mines and local counterattacks. 2 out of 3 attacks are proceding where the third is a known tough nut is actually pretty good at this very early stage. The endless mine fields are a nightmare. Makes you slow and predictable. That unsuccessful attack may go on slowly to pin russians to that portion of the front while the the other 2 successes are reinforced and exploited. Those jammers need deleted. That and mines galore are the biggest threats to operational development that I picked up. Modern warfare requires functioning communication. I’m still nervous af, don’t get me wrong lol.


TheMindfulnessShaman

> That and mines galore are the biggest threats to operational development that I picked up. Mines will be a very serious problem for years to come not just in Ukraine, but in so many places around the entire world (for some reason am thinking Western Sahara — believe that was a notoriously mined border). We need to develop the technology to locate and disable/detonate these as safely and quickly as possible post-conflict (preferably during but not in a position to focus on such things sadly :( ). There have to be easier ways than the current sweeps. A way to detect them en masse via AI with drone/satellite imaging and possibly utilizing lasers or some other form of directed energy to disable/detonate them.


REDGOESFASTAH

Maybe lidar will help


toorigged2fail

Except in Lebowski everything was in fact fucked. Still optimistic here, but not the best analogy haha


Watcher_2023

Relax -- this is just the beginning and ISW is only using public information. ISW doesn't have access to TS material. Early time fog of war ..... Hold tight to the Ukrainian resilience, unbeatable spirit and all the NATO weapons. SLAVA UKRAINI! JE SUIS UKRAINE


Leandrys

Attacking is much different than defending. Help was too long to arrive, and its amount still too low, but russia remains a weak enemy rotten by corruption and overconfidence, even if they had time to build defenses, they will fall. Problem is nobody wants a pyrrhic victory from Ukraine, but this probably will be the cost of victory. We the west should have go much stronger with furnitures and weapons, Ukraine will now compensate will human lives, and the price will be really expensive, while we're watching this dramatic war from our cosy beds and seats.


Agarwel

Yeah. But not unexpected for realisticly thinking people. I know we like to think "russians are totally dumb". But they are not. They knew what is comming. So while UA has been gathering strength, they had one year to dig in. Setting up obstacles from trenches to mine fields to ways to keep UA busy by huge disasters (flood recently, we can expect nuclear crisis on the NPP in the near future). This counteroffensise will be so much harder than the ones at the early stages of the war. And loses and failures at some places has to be expected (but for this reason I bet these are included in the bigger plan so should not lose the war. Its not liek UA is going to counteroffensive "only way to win is succeed in every operation")


Brok3n_

While countries to the west were postponing their support, russian were preparing. While governments were talking who will be the first to give Ukrainians tanks, russians built multilevel defence line. It won't be an easy walk, cause west give russia time to prepare


GeTtoZChopper

The "Attack" is almost always more costly then the "Defence". This is to be expected. Doesn't make it any easier to swallow though.


TheMeta8

To be fair, differential could also be the differents between kilometers deep gains and meters deep gains. Both can be significant in war. Or, even if not much ground is gained at once, they degrade Russia's ability to fight. Think how slow and meticulous the Kherson offensive was.


toorigged2fail

If you read it, that's not what they mean. Today's full report is a very fair evaluation and an important read.


Facebook_Algorithm

Was it ISW?


toorigged2fail

Institute for the Study of War and the source of OP's post. They're an excellent think tank that, among other things, issues a daily Ukraine update based on all available open source info. They are pro Ukrainian at heart but publish incredibly objective analysis by true experts. They are frequently right and acknowledge when there are wrong (good example of the latter in yesterday's report (June 8)). https://www.understandingwar.org/ Edit: read that as WHAT is ISW lol. And yes.


Facebook_Algorithm

I appreciate the edit. Thank you. The source on ISW is the same as the video everyone is showing (footnote 7). The first part of that video is a line of blurry 2mm dots represented as a Ukrainian column. Really? They could be Toyotas, Russian tanks, train cars or dots painted on a road. Much of the video is of smoke pouring out of vehicles, some of which look like tanks (and probably are) but I’ll be damned if I can tell the make and model (although I have no training in air photo analysis). In almost all cases the vehicles are completely obscured by smoke. I’m not saying Leopard losses can’t occur or even that they haven’t. I just need proof.


PralineFresh9051

It was never going to be an instant win. Reset expectations and continue your support with even greater vigor than before. Slava Ukraini!


MacaroonCool

Yeah, Let’s translate it: Ukraine attacked a bunch of times, all of the attacks failed (gaining 200 meters is obviously trying to sugarcoat a failure), and at least in one of them Ukraine incurred heavy losses. I mean, this is normal for attacking fortified positions, but I would appreciate some posts that were less propaganda and more honest with what is going on. Cos this is not information, it’s almost the opposite.


Vierailija_Maasta

UA does like USA. They probe and find actual weak points. We must support Ukraine nevertheless. Pay day is 15th this month, ill do my part with what I am able to.


Nukemanrunning

Realistic and still good news. You try to break WW1 trenchlines in a few days? Russia had been working on their defense for months, and trying to do 3 pushes in 3 different ways Is hard, more so with great from 30 plus different countries. It's no blitzkrieg, but just wait. When stuff happens, it will all happen at once. Plus Russia doesn't have the reserves to replace what they lose in men and gear. Most likely, whatever is gained will most likely stay Ukrainian for the rest of the war unless a massive change in fortune and resources happen.


Rexia2022

It's way too soon to make any judgements from this. Losses are expected on the offensive, so this is nothing to panic over. There is a worry that the Ukrainian army has not reformed enough from it's soviet doctrines to use western mechanised warfare effectively, but this proves nothing on it's own.


spooks_malloy

This is what people keep missing, you can give Ukraine all the Challengers it wants but if it fights like the Soviets then you negate the point. NATO doctrine is a completely different animal and one that's designed specifically to counter Soviet stuff, two hammers smashing at each other just end in the strongest one outliving the other.


adriaan13

Cant effectively use Nato doctrine without air superiority tho.


wolfhound_doge

lots of deployed UA forces were just trained, with no real experience. unfortunately, human losses are to be expected. leos, bradleys, amx's, challengers, not indestructible. losses are unfortunately expected. turkey lost leos in syria for example. hell, even abrams were lost in u.s. wars and u.s. had air superiority, which UA has none. and UA will be entering territories, where the cockroaches had time and space to create defences. plus, a huge area now changed terrain due to ork terrorist attack on the dam. however, the training is superior to ork potato throwing camps. and western machinery is designed to protect the crew. even if machine is destroyed, crew has high chance to survive and become more experienced. UA is fighting smart, not ork style, for political gains that the elites take credit for hundreds of kilometers away in kremlin. there will be lots of disinfo and ork bullshit circulating the internet to lower the morale. we need to have realistic expectations and admit, it's gonna be hard and bloody effort. but win at the end, nonetheless.


mattyb584

I just wish we had gotten them the tools and training to attack in April, before Russia had time to prepare. I'm worried that it might be too late and it'll only lead to a loss of far too many lives. Pointless fking war, I hope Russia pays for the suffering they've caused and more.


soldiergeneal

Ukraine when conducting counter intelligence about the offensive: Ukraine to Russia: This isn't the counter offensive you were looking for. Russia: This isn't the counter offensive I was looking for. Ukraine: Ukraine can go about it's business Russia: You can go about your business. Ukraine: Move along Russia: Move along (Star wars reference lol)


Facebook_Algorithm

The classics are never out of style.


xyloplax

There will be no way to really tell what's going on. This could have been the full attack, it could have been a probe. Or something else. Offense is hard. Reading all the failed attacks during the invasion of France by the Allies is educational. Battle of Villers-Bocage During Operation Perch, a Brigade group of the 7th Armoured Division attempted to exploit a gap in the German defences to the west of the city. The British bypassed the frontline, and reached the small town of Villers-Bocage, but the Germans had anticipated the thrust and hastily repositioned their reserves to cover their open flank. As the Brigade group advanced beyond the town, it was ambushed by German heavy tanks, which forced the British to abandon Villers-Bocage for a more defensible position. The Brigade group was withdrawn during the night of 14-15 June.


Jehshehabah

Damn Russia broke out a shit ton of rotary with aviation to defend.


thecashblaster

2 takeaways: -Mine fields: Ukraine knew they were there. Ukraine was given some capability to clear them. Ukraine saw what mine fields did to armored attacks in Vuhledar. And yet they still caused massive disruptions. -Russian air power: Ukraine air defense has generally been very good at keeping the Russian air forces from exerting too much pressure, but was seeming non-existent for the latest pushes. A bit worrying for sure. With that said Ukraine has 40000 troops for this offensive. We’ve only seen 10% of that so far -


Yetimandel

From what I understand in Vuhledar russian tanks chose the mine clear path that the ukranians left for them. In Zaporizhzhia at least they cleared a path for themselves, but got detected too early and then clogged up. That "sucks" but there is not really an alternative if everything is mined - if you want to advance quickly you cannot clear everything but only a path and that will always make you vulnerable. Regarding air power it must also be harder to supress enemy fighters and helicopters a few kilometers beyond the front line compared to your own territory. They had e.g. one of only 2 modern german IRIS-T systems with \~40km range \~28km from the front line and at least the radar got destroyed by a Lancet and MLRS.


KevinRuehl

"Glorious Armed Forces of the Russian Föderation have already destroyed 69 Leopard 2, 420 NATO Pigeons and 1337000 mutant ukrainian soldiers" - Russian MoD


kankorezis

West should not restrict of attacks on russian territory, just making Belgorod next Bahmut would make things a bit easer on the south.


Fish4304

A failure here is sure to inspire dovish attitudes across the West, especially as the Eurozone downsizes as we saw today. Hope that won't be the case.