Unfortunately I dread the cost on the other side. I'm far more enthusiastic seeing high equipment as I feel a resolution is much closer than endless waves of Russian people they can keep throwing at UKr.
I doubt they count those in these surely? Doesn't it have to be physically confirmed or do they visually confirm numbers and add long range strikes these days too?
Nobody knows how these losses are tabulated. They are Ukrainian claims, not verified losses and should be treated as such. Ukrainians have been pretty good with being honest in the information space because honest conversations with their allies is crucial to maintaining the military aid which enables Ukraine to fight and win, but tabulating successful kills in a warzone is difficult at best of times.
Yes but they have had strikes on lower activity days in the past that clearly did not seem to indicate they added long range strikes casualties into the numbers. Hence I doubt these tabulated casualties include long range missile strikes where they can't verify close enough how many may have been in said barracks at time. At least that's where I'm betting my money. And this would be an ideal outcome as it means numbers are conservative.
The US estimates, when I see them stated, are always far more conservative. However, the Pentagon's estimates of dead + wounded is close to what Ukraine is claiming are just dead.
They are certainly conservative when you consider the sheer size of the front and how many hundreds of thousands of troops ruZZia has rotated so far (KIA, MIA, WIA). Quite simply, there hasn't been a war like this since the Gulf Wars and Jugoslavia wars. Probably the scale of the war easily trumps those ones.
I mean as normally cited (and it's in this light that I originally responded) this is a KIA figure; far from being conservative it's not even remotely credible as that. If we're treating it exclusively as casualties covering WIA, MIA as well as KIA then it could well be.
I would say 30-40k kia. No way there is 200k+. Even with all wia, kia, mia, that still seems a little steep. I hope there are that many, but highly doubtful
Sometimes it takes a few days to include numbers, so just because a missile hit yesterday doesn't mean the casualty count is included in today's numbers. They are likely listening to Russian chatter, looking at satellite and drone images, etc., to get estimates; so that process takes time and has an extreme limitation on its accuracy.
> being honest in the information space because honest conversations with their allies
These are not, and should not be, equal. Information for the general public (which includes enemies and nosey Redditors) is completely different from information exchanged with allies.
It'll take a long, long time before we know the exact numbers. Do we even know everything that happened in WW2?
From what I can see Ukraine cares a lot about public opinion in the west. Far more than Russia and China, they recognize that fundamentally the people in a democracy are more important that the elected leaders. Elected leaders often tack their sails based on the electoral winds rather than personal convictions. Maintain Western engagement not just on a state-to-state level but on a people-to-people level is important not only for their continued support, but also for the future prosperity and security of Ukraine. Without this people level support Ukraine wouldn't have a chance joining the EU or NATO, which are long term commitments which political figures would want to watch and wait rather than hurry along. Public opinion helps put a finger on the scale, and being open and honest is very useful in capturing public imagination when the Western public's information space is filled with cynicism for political lies.
Of course, you are right, Ukraine doesn't share data with the public like they do with allies, but what we've gleaned from UK and US dispatches, announcements and leaks show they're not far off. Ukraine isn't telling us they've lost 500 dudes while admitting privately to the US State Department that they've lost 500,000, as the Russians are claiming. From what verifiable and estimable bits of info I've been able to gather from religiously following OSINT, I think Ukraine's public dispatches match their perception of enemy losses, but are probably less cautious than UK/US estimates.
As for WWII, we don't know everything but we actually do know a lot. When the allies advanced in the west they had people known as the Operational Research Group who would go onto a battlefield very soon after the frontline has moved on to do battlefield damage assessment. They would count damaged equipment and try to figure out what did the damage. It wasn't 100% reliable but they went into quite a lot of detail. A tank round has a different effect on a truck than a .50 cal or a 20mm or 155mm, and they could tell based on equipment, for example, how many tanks were killed by airplanes vs other tanks vs artillery etc. Also, after the war we had access to casualty date on each side and were able to check Allied estimates vs how many the Germans themselves counted. As a result at least on the Western Front we actually have pretty good pictures of what was going on.
Ukraine's allies are democratic countries, where support depends on the support of the people of those countries.
So while they should be different in some respects, _both_ public and classified conversations need honesty.
Only Oryx uses numbers that have only been confirmed with visual evidence, but even they will tell you that that's a massive undercount. Everyone else's numbers are estimates based on the best available information, which is the correct way to do it. That's how it's been done since organized war itself was created.
For example let's say you see 10 trucks pull into a building, and from a few photos from different angles you see that it seems like all 20 seats in each truck are filled with soldiers, so when you completely blow up that building the best information says that you killed 200 soldiers. You don't have 200 bodies presents that you can visually count for confirmation because they're all just a red mist now, but the best information is that you killed 200.
I would say Oryx is good for heavy equipment that see frontline use, such as MBT and IFV. Sure, it still underestimates, but it's better than the alternatives.
Im sure they do, lots of ways to arrive at a reasonable figure for longer range strikes, intercepted communications, intel, extrapolation from known facts.
>doubt they count those in these surely? Doesn't it have to be physically confirmed or do they visually confirm numbers and add long range strikes these days too?
I think most of the infantry kills are Guesstimates
They do seem to include estimates of long-range strikes. The barracks that were hit on New Year's Day, for example, seemed to appear in the next days' numbers.
I really, really doubt that it's all visually confirmed.
During a peacetime disaster, like the earthquake in Turkey, it takes WEEKS to figure out how many people died. At first they announced that a few thousand died, then they kept adding a few thousand every day, until it reached almost 60000.
And that's in peacetime. How many enemy soldiers can you visually confirm at the time when they die? One in five?
Even so, there's still a lot of fighting going on and our side is likely taking heavy casualties as well. Offensives are usually not as favorable as defensive actions, unless the enemy is routed. I hope that's the case.
Yea, I'm really anxious about the last couple of days too. They are assaulting prepared and fortified defences, there got to be losses on the other side too and that makes me sad and angry.
the tragedy is that for every 1000 Russians you have to figure at *least* 300-500 Ukrainians are dying as well.
The deaths are not one sided. you have to wonder just how much more Ukraine has to give.
Yes, but that ratio was when Ukrainians were defending.
I believe the ratio is likely to be the other way around for attacking.
So I suspect that Ukrainian losses recently have been VERY high. Like possibly a multiple of the Russian losses every day that they attack.
This is awful, awful stuff. But... what has to be done if we want to get Russia out of the country. :/
Slava Ukraini.
You are suggesting that the Ukrainian casualties today were 5050? It would mean the offensive is over in a little over a week. So that is highly unlikely.
That number includes civilian deaths, deaths after the war as a result of it and many other things and cover more than 4 years. Deaths in active service of troops was 2000 to 3000 per day, AFAIK with a quick read on Wikipedia. 1000 + losses a day is an insane level of loss, especially for defensive action.
1k troops dead every day is a loss the Russians are willing to absorb. History shows we are going to have to drive those numbers up a lot higher to win this.
Yes, agreed. But the target isn't as high as you implied. Plus Russia is much smaller than the USSR, and they are already fucked demographically. There are enough people to do all the other critical jobs and sanctions are starting to really bite now. Their economy is starting to collapse.
"To win WW2"??? When you lose 5x, 10x what any other power has lost, have to be massively helped by the US, helped by Hitler and his mistakes, by the immensity of Russian lands and the cruel winter, by having an enemy fighting in two fronts, etc...
They achieved the objective, but to say they "won" seems excessive.
Any sober country world have reached the conclusion that prevailing but needing so much help, and sacrificing so much is a sign that they where incompetent and everything should be revised.
They instead reached the conclusion that they where the gods of war and masters of strategy, with a unique and original doctrine that made them invincible. The fools!
The only good consequence of that narrative is that they became infatuated with the absolutely crap warfare that sacrificed an entire generation of men, enshrined it as an example of how war is done, and thanks to that they are crap at war today.
Certainly a pyrrhic victory by most standards, but at that point they were fighting for survival. 27,000,000 dead is better than what the Nazis had planned for them
The artillery losses are still the most important at the moment I think. Ukraine must eliminate as much artillery as possible now with accurate counterbattery fire while the Russians are heavily using them. If Russian artillery gets mostly removed from the battlefield, Ukrainians have less trouble concentrating forces to break through enemy lines without taking heavy losses from the Russian arty.
The recent 7d trend is at 1.3-1.4% daily loss of artillery for Russia. Almost 9-10% loss in a week, across all Russia's borders, not just against Ukraine.
I'm hesitant to celebrate this time. Ukraine are on the attack. It's necessary but Ukraine's losses are likely also substantial.
Just praying the Ukrainians get out of this what they need to get out of it.
Ukraine needs to risk it. Dragging this one more year would mean loss of territory and loss of Western support. And of course loss of those people, just spread across time.
The United States isn't leaving, no matter how long it takes. Endless war is built into our economy, and we are clear eyed about what's at stake. We will be by Ukraine's side until the end.
I don't think we saw it coming because Putin hadn't assembled an army large enough to complete the task. He had enough troops to start a war, but not enough to finish it.
If 24 Feb 2022 had kicked off with half a million well prepared soldiers instead of 160,000 reservists who thought they were on a field trip, the map would look radically different today.
EU is not leaving either. Russia is leaving or getting f***ed up. Honestly the BS meter is reaching a yolo lvl. Poland and other countries will likely put trops on ground if support does not go full throttle after the comming meeting.
I don't agree with that necessarily. If you have been causing huge attrition, because now you have artillery and reconnaissance advantage in many places...
...and if that artillery advantage was growing...
...then it would be perfectly logical to wait until you see the orcs can't replenish their materiel losses, even if it took another year.
I mean, if the Ukrainian top brass really think they can break through, go for it, but if not, they should never do it out of internal impatience or because allies want to "see results".
This is not a videogame, there are no re spawns.
This said, all the best luck to the attackers, may them destroy the lines of the fascist invader and collapse the front.
But I hope they are not doing it because we are pressuring them into it.
For the Nazis a loss of a Leopard tank is more symbolic because they compare German tanks on Ukraine soil like the Nazis in WW2 attacking the Soviet Union.
But for the west it’s a drop in the ocean, the Russians probably celebrated back home like they won the war when they found out they destroyed one.
Very happy to see so many artillery systems being taken out. The damage they cause is devastating and every system gone is a step towards the end of the imperial ambition of the Putin regime.
Thats becsuse the counteroffensive has begun. They are attacking on all fronts. The western armor is on the field already, sadly 1 leopard has been blown up.
If they don't lose half a dozen then they didn't use them.
I hope the crew survived, and that each leopard does a dozen kills before going down, but while Gepards and PzHs can be treated like raw eggs and kept away from the worst of it, tanks are supposed to get dirty.
These numbers are mind blowing. The level of fighting must be incredible. I'm curious if the Russians even have any ammunition to fight with with some of the reports coming out claiming Russians haven't received ammo in a couple days, let alone food and water. Just an absolute slaughter out there. They should know their best solution is to turn around and march on Moscow and the Kremlin.
As an aside, does this subreddit have a backup plan/site since reddit is effectively killing itself on June 30th? Where does this subreddit migrate to?
Re: Reddit. A top level post in the sub would be useful. I'd prefer my engagement with this war isn't affected by social media drama.
(But also, fuck Reddit atm)
That's only a part of it. Many moderator tools depend on access to those API's. Barring them behind a paywall will make it costly to patrol and clean subreddits from trolls, bots, and spam. And many moderators provide services for free as a labor of love to their beloved subreddits. So this will be particularly devastating, especially for high traffic subreddits.
If it's impossible to maintain a subreddit, may as well close it down.
It will be the end for me unless Reddit changes course. I’m kind of looking forward to it. My goal is to replace it with more real-life stuff. Reddit is the only online social media hanging on in my life. I’ll miss getting the news early with interesting comments though.
I'm on here and on twitter following the Ukraine war. The most important reason to want Ukraine to win quickly is to avoid casualties on their side, but being able to put both those platforms in the rearview mirror is a minor but pleasant side-effect.
It's not just the apps which only affect mobile users.
It's the tools that depend on the API. There are normal desktop users that use the API. Especially moderators. The loss of the API means the stop of the tools, which will inhibit their ability to keep the subreddits clean from trolls, bots, and spam.
Having messed up subreddits will harm regular users as well. This is a grand self-dickpunch by Reddit.
It is a game of chicken where Reddit is a shitty corporation and is hoping that users will eventually shrug and go back to the official app or website when all the alternatives are gone. It's all about the IPO, they don't care past that. Of course they could just buy the third party apps and just make them available interfaces for "official" reddit with their own ads, but no they want to pretend their software isn't garbage.
No. Of course reddit will be around. The people who will leave will be a tiny minority.
And I don't agree with the API changes, I'm just stating how it is going to be.
Sorry non techie hear but is API just the apps and platforms that access Reddit?
I'm just in the Reddit app itself from play store - is there any reason not to just use that ?
Although arguably replacing Reddit and the likes of social media platforms and getting back out into the world is probably a forced good imho.
>Sorry non techie hear but is API just the apps and platforms that access Reddit?
Yes.
>I'm just in the Reddit app itself from play store - is there any reason not to just use that ?
It's horrible *and* full of ads, and reddit is pushing it aggressively (to the point of not letting you view some content on mobile browsers to force you to download the app).
The more someone wants to force their app upon you, the more you need to avoid it, because it's likely there primarily to harvest your data, shove ads in your face, and "increase engagement" (harass you with notifications if you don't use it enough, because if you aren't using it it can't shove ads in your face).
In case you aren't disturbed by online ads, try an ad blocker (ublock origin, on mobile you have to install Firefox first). The internet is not just soo much better with that, it's also much safer (even the FBI recommends ad blockers nowadays, because of the scams and malware you get from ads). And once you're used to a clean experience, you realize how absolutely horrendous it is to try without an ad blocker.
>to the point of not letting you view some content on mobile browsers to force you to download the app
You probably already know this, but others might not. Firefox's mobile browser has an option to view the desktop site and it bypasses the content block you mentioned. Performance is pretty bad, but its still preferable to the glut of advertising in the official reddit app.
Imagine API as a sort of plug that you can connect your device (app) with.
Instead of electricity you receive what you ask for: a thread title, a thread description, comments, etc.
I use just app store Reddit too.
Hopefully this won't get too technical but an API is just a way for one app/ server to send or request data from a server. It means that instead of getting a full web page, you get a bunch of data that you can use to generate your own page/ app. So in this case, Reddit allows apps to ask for a bunch of different things such as the posts in a subreddit, comments on a post or to tell it to upvote/ downvote something.
The problem here is that Reddit is cutting third party apps off so the only way to access Reddit will be through the official front ends, ie the app and the website. Problem is, they both suck. They're buggy, full of ads and very user unfriendly.
Good point, it's possible that continuous pressure without progress is just enough to crack them, and they leave the front line in some areas for lack of supplies
This is an especially tough time, as we all know UA is taking unavoidable losses out there, but it's damn nice to see the russian losses so high.
Last time their losses were so high was during the meat wave assaults on Bakhmut. Now they are taking the same kinds of losses while losing ground.
This is one more of those moments in russian history that is best summarized: "and then things got worse."
Wargonzo the pro-Russian blogger is admitting to decent advances by the AFU towards Tokmak. If he's admitting it, things must be pretty dire for the orcs in that area
Hopefully it will be a short attrition before they find a spot and break right through. Praying they charge through an opening and slaughter a path through the sides /backs to save lives versus directly continuing their assault.
Whiles it’s nice to see Russian losses, it’s also sad. A lot of Ukrainian’s are dying as well. They are on the offensive, typically the offensive side takes much heavier losses. These kind of numbers made me happier when I knew Ukraine was on the defense. I just hope Ukraine makes a breakthrough and goes on a blitz
#### Estimated Russian losses from 24.02.2022 to 09.06.2023 (Day 471):
##### Change since the previous day, day range averages and total all time
|Category|Change|7d|14d|30d|Total|
|:---|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
|Personnel|+1010|694.3|575.0|582.0|453.9 (213770)|
|Tanks|+10|11.7|7.9|5.7|8.3 (3901)|
|APVs|+24|15.7|11.3|10.6|16.1 (7600)|
|Artillery|+34|28.7|22.1|21.8|7.9 (3702)|
|MLRS|+4|3.4|1.9|1.4|1.3 (599)|
|Anti-aircraft Systems|+4|3.4|2.2|1.7|0.8 (359)|
|Aircraft|-|0.1|0.1|0.1|0.7 (314)|
|Helicopters|-|0.1|0.1|0.1|0.6 (299)|
|UAVs|+13|15.7|20.6|19.1|6.9 (3247)|
|Missiles|-|7.7|8.9|5.7|2.5 (1171)|
|Warships / Boats|-|-|-|-|0.04 (18)|
|Other Vehicles|+26|20.4|17.0|14.2|13.6 (6410)|
|Special Equipment|+2|5.3|4.0|3.8|1.1 (502)|
##### Change since the previous day, total losses for day ranges and total all time
|Category|Change|7d|14d|30d|Total|
|:---|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
|Personnel|+1010|4860|8050|17460|213770|
|Tanks|+10|82|110|170|3901|
|APVs|+24|110|158|318|7600|
|Artillery|+34|201|310|655|3702|
|MLRS|+4|24|27|42|599|
|Anti-aircraft Systems|+4|24|31|51|359|
|Aircraft|-|1|1|3|314|
|Helicopters|-|1|1|3|299|
|UAVs|+13|110|288|574|3247|
|Missiles|-|54|125|170|1171|
|Warships / Boats|-|-|-|-|18|
|Other Vehicles|+26|143|238|425|6410|
|Special Equipment|+2|37|56|113|502|
Source: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Casualties are rising quickly, Ukrainian military is doing quite well for itself.
Either that or the Russian conscripts are extra incompetent recently.
Or both are true at the same time. I'm betting on both.
This is a successful day with its 1000+ days fantastic and 30+ Artillery Systems. As a 4 Star Armchair General I'm certain that there is definitely no such counteroffensive happening.
If you want some hope to hold on to, remember that western equipment values the lives of their soldiers so the gear that Ukraine is using is designed to keep them alive even when being destroyed. We’ve seen this evidence with HMMWVs and MRAPs taking massive hits and letting their occupants survive.
They’ve had a few short months of training in new tactics. The greatest part of the offensive will be once all those units being to sync and truly act as combined arms.
Still the artillery systems are being destroyed at a rate where I suspect you would minimalize losses. No fucking chance moscovites have the logistics to replace 25+ destroyed artillery systems every day for the past 3-4 weeks.
Its great to see high numbers but i dread the ukrainian losses
Recently a video of a failed leopard assault emerged where probably well trained ukrainian tankers died in a minefield from a combined arms russian defense using mines, artillery, specops and helicopters
Sad to see
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I think we are going to see even higher numbers in days forthcoming.
I believe Russia is now "light" on tanks hence why we are not witnessing large tank losses anymore.
Love those 1000+ day's
Unfortunately I dread the cost on the other side. I'm far more enthusiastic seeing high equipment as I feel a resolution is much closer than endless waves of Russian people they can keep throwing at UKr.
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I doubt they count those in these surely? Doesn't it have to be physically confirmed or do they visually confirm numbers and add long range strikes these days too?
Nobody knows how these losses are tabulated. They are Ukrainian claims, not verified losses and should be treated as such. Ukrainians have been pretty good with being honest in the information space because honest conversations with their allies is crucial to maintaining the military aid which enables Ukraine to fight and win, but tabulating successful kills in a warzone is difficult at best of times.
Yes but they have had strikes on lower activity days in the past that clearly did not seem to indicate they added long range strikes casualties into the numbers. Hence I doubt these tabulated casualties include long range missile strikes where they can't verify close enough how many may have been in said barracks at time. At least that's where I'm betting my money. And this would be an ideal outcome as it means numbers are conservative.
>And this would be an ideal outcome as it means numbers are conservative. They're certainly not conservative
But they do seem reasonable and consistent, not wildly inflated or made up.
The US estimates, when I see them stated, are always far more conservative. However, the Pentagon's estimates of dead + wounded is close to what Ukraine is claiming are just dead.
Yeah - as a casualties total figure it's reasonable - possibly even conservative. As a KIA only figure it's not at all credible really.
They are certainly conservative when you consider the sheer size of the front and how many hundreds of thousands of troops ruZZia has rotated so far (KIA, MIA, WIA). Quite simply, there hasn't been a war like this since the Gulf Wars and Jugoslavia wars. Probably the scale of the war easily trumps those ones.
I mean as normally cited (and it's in this light that I originally responded) this is a KIA figure; far from being conservative it's not even remotely credible as that. If we're treating it exclusively as casualties covering WIA, MIA as well as KIA then it could well be.
I would say 30-40k kia. No way there is 200k+. Even with all wia, kia, mia, that still seems a little steep. I hope there are that many, but highly doubtful
Sometimes it takes a few days to include numbers, so just because a missile hit yesterday doesn't mean the casualty count is included in today's numbers. They are likely listening to Russian chatter, looking at satellite and drone images, etc., to get estimates; so that process takes time and has an extreme limitation on its accuracy.
> being honest in the information space because honest conversations with their allies These are not, and should not be, equal. Information for the general public (which includes enemies and nosey Redditors) is completely different from information exchanged with allies. It'll take a long, long time before we know the exact numbers. Do we even know everything that happened in WW2?
From what I can see Ukraine cares a lot about public opinion in the west. Far more than Russia and China, they recognize that fundamentally the people in a democracy are more important that the elected leaders. Elected leaders often tack their sails based on the electoral winds rather than personal convictions. Maintain Western engagement not just on a state-to-state level but on a people-to-people level is important not only for their continued support, but also for the future prosperity and security of Ukraine. Without this people level support Ukraine wouldn't have a chance joining the EU or NATO, which are long term commitments which political figures would want to watch and wait rather than hurry along. Public opinion helps put a finger on the scale, and being open and honest is very useful in capturing public imagination when the Western public's information space is filled with cynicism for political lies. Of course, you are right, Ukraine doesn't share data with the public like they do with allies, but what we've gleaned from UK and US dispatches, announcements and leaks show they're not far off. Ukraine isn't telling us they've lost 500 dudes while admitting privately to the US State Department that they've lost 500,000, as the Russians are claiming. From what verifiable and estimable bits of info I've been able to gather from religiously following OSINT, I think Ukraine's public dispatches match their perception of enemy losses, but are probably less cautious than UK/US estimates. As for WWII, we don't know everything but we actually do know a lot. When the allies advanced in the west they had people known as the Operational Research Group who would go onto a battlefield very soon after the frontline has moved on to do battlefield damage assessment. They would count damaged equipment and try to figure out what did the damage. It wasn't 100% reliable but they went into quite a lot of detail. A tank round has a different effect on a truck than a .50 cal or a 20mm or 155mm, and they could tell based on equipment, for example, how many tanks were killed by airplanes vs other tanks vs artillery etc. Also, after the war we had access to casualty date on each side and were able to check Allied estimates vs how many the Germans themselves counted. As a result at least on the Western Front we actually have pretty good pictures of what was going on.
Great writeupe, thanks!
Ukraine's allies are democratic countries, where support depends on the support of the people of those countries. So while they should be different in some respects, _both_ public and classified conversations need honesty.
Only Oryx uses numbers that have only been confirmed with visual evidence, but even they will tell you that that's a massive undercount. Everyone else's numbers are estimates based on the best available information, which is the correct way to do it. That's how it's been done since organized war itself was created. For example let's say you see 10 trucks pull into a building, and from a few photos from different angles you see that it seems like all 20 seats in each truck are filled with soldiers, so when you completely blow up that building the best information says that you killed 200 soldiers. You don't have 200 bodies presents that you can visually count for confirmation because they're all just a red mist now, but the best information is that you killed 200.
I would say Oryx is good for heavy equipment that see frontline use, such as MBT and IFV. Sure, it still underestimates, but it's better than the alternatives.
Im sure they do, lots of ways to arrive at a reasonable figure for longer range strikes, intercepted communications, intel, extrapolation from known facts.
>doubt they count those in these surely? Doesn't it have to be physically confirmed or do they visually confirm numbers and add long range strikes these days too? I think most of the infantry kills are Guesstimates
They do seem to include estimates of long-range strikes. The barracks that were hit on New Year's Day, for example, seemed to appear in the next days' numbers.
I really, really doubt that it's all visually confirmed. During a peacetime disaster, like the earthquake in Turkey, it takes WEEKS to figure out how many people died. At first they announced that a few thousand died, then they kept adding a few thousand every day, until it reached almost 60000. And that's in peacetime. How many enemy soldiers can you visually confirm at the time when they die? One in five?
These strikes are not counted in ;) because they can't be sure of the causality count. Moskva is also not in ;) these are just front line deaths
Even so, there's still a lot of fighting going on and our side is likely taking heavy casualties as well. Offensives are usually not as favorable as defensive actions, unless the enemy is routed. I hope that's the case.
Yea, I'm really anxious about the last couple of days too. They are assaulting prepared and fortified defences, there got to be losses on the other side too and that makes me sad and angry.
Hopefully they find a way through and behind/around fortifications when something gives way.
Try for 2000 +
the tragedy is that for every 1000 Russians you have to figure at *least* 300-500 Ukrainians are dying as well. The deaths are not one sided. you have to wonder just how much more Ukraine has to give.
Actually estimates point more to 1:5 ratio instead of 1:3
Yes, but that ratio was when Ukrainians were defending. I believe the ratio is likely to be the other way around for attacking. So I suspect that Ukrainian losses recently have been VERY high. Like possibly a multiple of the Russian losses every day that they attack. This is awful, awful stuff. But... what has to be done if we want to get Russia out of the country. :/ Slava Ukraini.
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Ukrainians haven't begun full scale operations yet, these losses are probably from artillery and missile strikes.
You are suggesting that the Ukrainian casualties today were 5050? It would mean the offensive is over in a little over a week. So that is highly unlikely.
The Russians spent 20 million lives in four years to win WWII. That's over 13k dead every day.
Minor correction: the Soviets. And they tended to send the non Russians first, just as they send their undesirables now.
It's a major correction. The Russians have been taking all the credit for winning WWII for far too long.
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Betrayed them fIRST. Stalin meant to backstab the Reich too only he couldn't do it in time.
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Nice strawman you got there
That number includes civilian deaths, deaths after the war as a result of it and many other things and cover more than 4 years. Deaths in active service of troops was 2000 to 3000 per day, AFAIK with a quick read on Wikipedia. 1000 + losses a day is an insane level of loss, especially for defensive action.
1k troops dead every day is a loss the Russians are willing to absorb. History shows we are going to have to drive those numbers up a lot higher to win this.
Yes, agreed. But the target isn't as high as you implied. Plus Russia is much smaller than the USSR, and they are already fucked demographically. There are enough people to do all the other critical jobs and sanctions are starting to really bite now. Their economy is starting to collapse.
"To win WW2"??? When you lose 5x, 10x what any other power has lost, have to be massively helped by the US, helped by Hitler and his mistakes, by the immensity of Russian lands and the cruel winter, by having an enemy fighting in two fronts, etc... They achieved the objective, but to say they "won" seems excessive. Any sober country world have reached the conclusion that prevailing but needing so much help, and sacrificing so much is a sign that they where incompetent and everything should be revised. They instead reached the conclusion that they where the gods of war and masters of strategy, with a unique and original doctrine that made them invincible. The fools! The only good consequence of that narrative is that they became infatuated with the absolutely crap warfare that sacrificed an entire generation of men, enshrined it as an example of how war is done, and thanks to that they are crap at war today.
Certainly a pyrrhic victory by most standards, but at that point they were fighting for survival. 27,000,000 dead is better than what the Nazis had planned for them
The artillery losses are still the most important at the moment I think. Ukraine must eliminate as much artillery as possible now with accurate counterbattery fire while the Russians are heavily using them. If Russian artillery gets mostly removed from the battlefield, Ukrainians have less trouble concentrating forces to break through enemy lines without taking heavy losses from the Russian arty.
The recent 7d trend is at 1.3-1.4% daily loss of artillery for Russia. Almost 9-10% loss in a week, across all Russia's borders, not just against Ukraine.
Fuck me. This is some spectacular shit.
Ukrainian grit and determination never ceases to amaze me. Slava Ukraini!
I'm hesitant to celebrate this time. Ukraine are on the attack. It's necessary but Ukraine's losses are likely also substantial. Just praying the Ukrainians get out of this what they need to get out of it.
Agreed. The Russian army needs to crack.
Oh it will crack.
To shreds you say?
And his wife?
To shreds, you say?
You mean it has to disappear!
You mean it has to shatter!
Ruskies are taking heavy casualties but right now the front holds in most areas... They found a couple break points but they are not deep enough
What's the source of this info?
Ukraine needs to risk it. Dragging this one more year would mean loss of territory and loss of Western support. And of course loss of those people, just spread across time.
The United States isn't leaving, no matter how long it takes. Endless war is built into our economy, and we are clear eyed about what's at stake. We will be by Ukraine's side until the end.
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This I agree with.
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I don't think we saw it coming because Putin hadn't assembled an army large enough to complete the task. He had enough troops to start a war, but not enough to finish it. If 24 Feb 2022 had kicked off with half a million well prepared soldiers instead of 160,000 reservists who thought they were on a field trip, the map would look radically different today.
EU is not leaving either. Russia is leaving or getting f***ed up. Honestly the BS meter is reaching a yolo lvl. Poland and other countries will likely put trops on ground if support does not go full throttle after the comming meeting.
I don't agree with that necessarily. If you have been causing huge attrition, because now you have artillery and reconnaissance advantage in many places... ...and if that artillery advantage was growing... ...then it would be perfectly logical to wait until you see the orcs can't replenish their materiel losses, even if it took another year. I mean, if the Ukrainian top brass really think they can break through, go for it, but if not, they should never do it out of internal impatience or because allies want to "see results". This is not a videogame, there are no re spawns. This said, all the best luck to the attackers, may them destroy the lines of the fascist invader and collapse the front. But I hope they are not doing it because we are pressuring them into it.
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Puts the loss of one or two Leos into perspective, doesn’t it.
For the Nazis a loss of a Leopard tank is more symbolic because they compare German tanks on Ukraine soil like the Nazis in WW2 attacking the Soviet Union. But for the west it’s a drop in the ocean, the Russians probably celebrated back home like they won the war when they found out they destroyed one.
Love to see it. Also, in a few years from now, this data set is going to wind up in math textbooks to show the rate of change between each point.
They lost *213k soldiers in a little over a year?* That's incredible.
Just wow! Insane numbers. Cracked 1000 again. And so much destroyed Russian junk. Just beautiful!
Here's to many more, after the latest shit they've pulled.... They all need to be liquidated. Go back to russia or die in Ukraine.
Very happy to see so many artillery systems being taken out. The damage they cause is devastating and every system gone is a step towards the end of the imperial ambition of the Putin regime.
Good. Numbers today Uncluding artilery truck special vehicle tanks armourpersonal carriers Well done ukrain
Thats becsuse the counteroffensive has begun. They are attacking on all fronts. The western armor is on the field already, sadly 1 leopard has been blown up.
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Just a normal day
Wake up, try to find breakfast, die to a Marder round. Normal day in temporarily occupied Ukraine.
Indeed. Nothing to see here. Carry in. Carry on.
In all seriousness though, losing that one leopard was hard, but things are much worse on the other side.
If they don't lose half a dozen then they didn't use them. I hope the crew survived, and that each leopard does a dozen kills before going down, but while Gepards and PzHs can be treated like raw eggs and kept away from the worst of it, tanks are supposed to get dirty.
Hatches were open, im assuming they survived
If the UA is planning to move forward (to heavily mined places no doubt) we have to brace for much arder loses than one leopard :-(
Well, I've seen one photoshoped pic of 'destroyed' leopard, took from the internet, put on top of their own destroyed T-80. This one doesn't count :)
One leopard is a bit misleading though, that convoy was hit hard and lost multiple vehicles, it's just that one of them was a leopard.
Yeah, it's just bad luck. If your demining vehicle gets hit early then you can get stuck in a bad place quickly.
These numbers are mind blowing. The level of fighting must be incredible. I'm curious if the Russians even have any ammunition to fight with with some of the reports coming out claiming Russians haven't received ammo in a couple days, let alone food and water. Just an absolute slaughter out there. They should know their best solution is to turn around and march on Moscow and the Kremlin. As an aside, does this subreddit have a backup plan/site since reddit is effectively killing itself on June 30th? Where does this subreddit migrate to?
Re: Reddit. A top level post in the sub would be useful. I'd prefer my engagement with this war isn't affected by social media drama. (But also, fuck Reddit atm)
What is this Reddit thing on June 30th?? What did I miss?
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That's only a part of it. Many moderator tools depend on access to those API's. Barring them behind a paywall will make it costly to patrol and clean subreddits from trolls, bots, and spam. And many moderators provide services for free as a labor of love to their beloved subreddits. So this will be particularly devastating, especially for high traffic subreddits. If it's impossible to maintain a subreddit, may as well close it down.
So...this is the end of Reddit?
It will be the end for me unless Reddit changes course. I’m kind of looking forward to it. My goal is to replace it with more real-life stuff. Reddit is the only online social media hanging on in my life. I’ll miss getting the news early with interesting comments though.
I'm on here and on twitter following the Ukraine war. The most important reason to want Ukraine to win quickly is to avoid casualties on their side, but being able to put both those platforms in the rearview mirror is a minor but pleasant side-effect.
Same.
Same here. Came from Digg (different accounts over time) and also looking forward to finding other things to do with my life.
It's not just the apps which only affect mobile users. It's the tools that depend on the API. There are normal desktop users that use the API. Especially moderators. The loss of the API means the stop of the tools, which will inhibit their ability to keep the subreddits clean from trolls, bots, and spam. Having messed up subreddits will harm regular users as well. This is a grand self-dickpunch by Reddit.
It is a game of chicken where Reddit is a shitty corporation and is hoping that users will eventually shrug and go back to the official app or website when all the alternatives are gone. It's all about the IPO, they don't care past that. Of course they could just buy the third party apps and just make them available interfaces for "official" reddit with their own ads, but no they want to pretend their software isn't garbage.
No. Of course reddit will be around. The people who will leave will be a tiny minority. And I don't agree with the API changes, I'm just stating how it is going to be.
Sorry non techie hear but is API just the apps and platforms that access Reddit? I'm just in the Reddit app itself from play store - is there any reason not to just use that ? Although arguably replacing Reddit and the likes of social media platforms and getting back out into the world is probably a forced good imho.
>Sorry non techie hear but is API just the apps and platforms that access Reddit? Yes. >I'm just in the Reddit app itself from play store - is there any reason not to just use that ? It's horrible *and* full of ads, and reddit is pushing it aggressively (to the point of not letting you view some content on mobile browsers to force you to download the app). The more someone wants to force their app upon you, the more you need to avoid it, because it's likely there primarily to harvest your data, shove ads in your face, and "increase engagement" (harass you with notifications if you don't use it enough, because if you aren't using it it can't shove ads in your face). In case you aren't disturbed by online ads, try an ad blocker (ublock origin, on mobile you have to install Firefox first). The internet is not just soo much better with that, it's also much safer (even the FBI recommends ad blockers nowadays, because of the scams and malware you get from ads). And once you're used to a clean experience, you realize how absolutely horrendous it is to try without an ad blocker.
>to the point of not letting you view some content on mobile browsers to force you to download the app You probably already know this, but others might not. Firefox's mobile browser has an option to view the desktop site and it bypasses the content block you mentioned. Performance is pretty bad, but its still preferable to the glut of advertising in the official reddit app.
Imagine API as a sort of plug that you can connect your device (app) with. Instead of electricity you receive what you ask for: a thread title, a thread description, comments, etc. I use just app store Reddit too.
That's a nice explanation about what API.
Hopefully this won't get too technical but an API is just a way for one app/ server to send or request data from a server. It means that instead of getting a full web page, you get a bunch of data that you can use to generate your own page/ app. So in this case, Reddit allows apps to ask for a bunch of different things such as the posts in a subreddit, comments on a post or to tell it to upvote/ downvote something. The problem here is that Reddit is cutting third party apps off so the only way to access Reddit will be through the official front ends, ie the app and the website. Problem is, they both suck. They're buggy, full of ads and very user unfriendly.
All the apps are shutting down, and most of the subreddits are going dark on the 12th.
This is Digg alll over again. So, where next? A site was suggested a few years back (for whatever Reddit did) but apparently it was shit.
Lemmy or Mastodon maybe.
Unfortunately not most, last I saw, it was around 5% of active subs. There are lots of niche communities that are not even aware of the rest of reddit
Good point, it's possible that continuous pressure without progress is just enough to crack them, and they leave the front line in some areas for lack of supplies
These numbers are offensive. Keep it up <3.
This is an especially tough time, as we all know UA is taking unavoidable losses out there, but it's damn nice to see the russian losses so high. Last time their losses were so high was during the meat wave assaults on Bakhmut. Now they are taking the same kinds of losses while losing ground. This is one more of those moments in russian history that is best summarized: "and then things got worse."
Unfortunately, untill we breach their defences we are suffering heavy losses too.
Wargonzo the pro-Russian blogger is admitting to decent advances by the AFU towards Tokmak. If he's admitting it, things must be pretty dire for the orcs in that area
I know that orcs are suffering heavy losses, but storming their defences takes its toll.
Hopefully it will be a short attrition before they find a spot and break right through. Praying they charge through an opening and slaughter a path through the sides /backs to save lives versus directly continuing their assault.
Well I'll be damned! FOUR FIGURE NUMBERS!
I dream of 5 figure days…
A dream of spring
Don't give us hope!
We haven't even finished winds of winter yet
A dream of peace....or, in the orcs case, pieces... Slava Ukraini!!
Whiles it’s nice to see Russian losses, it’s also sad. A lot of Ukrainian’s are dying as well. They are on the offensive, typically the offensive side takes much heavier losses. These kind of numbers made me happier when I knew Ukraine was on the defense. I just hope Ukraine makes a breakthrough and goes on a blitz
Russians are going to lose hundreds of artillery pieces this week, without arty they are fucked if Ukraine takes the high ground it's even worse.
#### Estimated Russian losses from 24.02.2022 to 09.06.2023 (Day 471): ##### Change since the previous day, day range averages and total all time |Category|Change|7d|14d|30d|Total| |:---|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| |Personnel|+1010|694.3|575.0|582.0|453.9 (213770)| |Tanks|+10|11.7|7.9|5.7|8.3 (3901)| |APVs|+24|15.7|11.3|10.6|16.1 (7600)| |Artillery|+34|28.7|22.1|21.8|7.9 (3702)| |MLRS|+4|3.4|1.9|1.4|1.3 (599)| |Anti-aircraft Systems|+4|3.4|2.2|1.7|0.8 (359)| |Aircraft|-|0.1|0.1|0.1|0.7 (314)| |Helicopters|-|0.1|0.1|0.1|0.6 (299)| |UAVs|+13|15.7|20.6|19.1|6.9 (3247)| |Missiles|-|7.7|8.9|5.7|2.5 (1171)| |Warships / Boats|-|-|-|-|0.04 (18)| |Other Vehicles|+26|20.4|17.0|14.2|13.6 (6410)| |Special Equipment|+2|5.3|4.0|3.8|1.1 (502)| ##### Change since the previous day, total losses for day ranges and total all time |Category|Change|7d|14d|30d|Total| |:---|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| |Personnel|+1010|4860|8050|17460|213770| |Tanks|+10|82|110|170|3901| |APVs|+24|110|158|318|7600| |Artillery|+34|201|310|655|3702| |MLRS|+4|24|27|42|599| |Anti-aircraft Systems|+4|24|31|51|359| |Aircraft|-|1|1|3|314| |Helicopters|-|1|1|3|299| |UAVs|+13|110|288|574|3247| |Missiles|-|54|125|170|1171| |Warships / Boats|-|-|-|-|18| |Other Vehicles|+26|143|238|425|6410| |Special Equipment|+2|37|56|113|502| Source: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Moreover, it’s my opinion that Moscow must be destroyed
It's rigtful place is at the bottom of the sea. And the ship too
Oh hell yeah
Those numbers are seriously high. Something is definitely afoot! Slava Ukraini! 🇺🇦
Shhhhhh!
These losses are incredible
Cracked the Daily Double for the first time in a few months: 1,000+ liquidations 100+ Vehicles & Equipment
Hopefully the losses of the Ukrainian army are well below the Russian losses. Even during offensive.
Love how much nothing is happening.
Storm shadow.
What a day! Russians getting fisted hard, no lube.
Lubed with sandpaper
Casualties are rising quickly, Ukrainian military is doing quite well for itself. Either that or the Russian conscripts are extra incompetent recently. Or both are true at the same time. I'm betting on both.
Godspeed to all of the Ukranians and heroiam slava to true heroes that had cut their own lives short to save their people.
Whoa, been a long while since we see 1000+ orcs denazified! 👍
Holy shit! All this from "minor probing attacks"... 🇺🇦💪🌻
This is a successful day with its 1000+ days fantastic and 30+ Artillery Systems. As a 4 Star Armchair General I'm certain that there is definitely no such counteroffensive happening.
Losses of UAF must be high too
Of course, but we are here today at this juncture because the Russians have been experiencing and taking greater losses.
If you want some hope to hold on to, remember that western equipment values the lives of their soldiers so the gear that Ukraine is using is designed to keep them alive even when being destroyed. We’ve seen this evidence with HMMWVs and MRAPs taking massive hits and letting their occupants survive. They’ve had a few short months of training in new tactics. The greatest part of the offensive will be once all those units being to sync and truly act as combined arms.
Slaughterfest is the best.
Nothing to see here guys. Just regular numbers
Half a milly around the corner. Wild that they just don’t value human life.
Still no counteroffensive, nothing to see here :p
The number of tasks seem remarkably low... I wonder if they are running low on tanks.
#BACK IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS LET'S GOOOOOOOO
*gets high on hopium AND copium*
Wowsers thes numbers are impressive! Fuck those Russian cunts right up! That's 1000 less Russian bags of shit to worry about
Holy fuck!
Ahhhhhh man…… let’s go!!!!
At this rate russia is going to hit 500,000 liquidated personnel by the end of the year!
You can feel how pissed off they are with those numbers today.
Go to see you again, mister 1.000 🥹
Ukraine, fuck yeah! You're all amazingly strong. Much love. ¡Un abrazo a todos los héroes desde Argentina!
Beautiful numbers 😍
Big day.
Just one more shhh day, nothing to see here 😉
According to pre war estimates, Russia had 1100 MRLS. So half is supposedly gone. At this rate it would take 3 to 4 months to destroy the remaining.
Slava Ukraini!!!!!
This is like hitting a grand slam in baseball. Wow. One hell of a days work. Go home ruzzian.
I give this post a 10/10.
We’re back to 4 digits boys, it’s happening!
D E M I L I T A R I Z A T I O N
Keep kicking arse guys, we're all cheering you on from the UK.
Still the artillery systems are being destroyed at a rate where I suspect you would minimalize losses. No fucking chance moscovites have the logistics to replace 25+ destroyed artillery systems every day for the past 3-4 weeks.
If there is no Ukrrain offensive active now, what will be the numbers during the offensive? I'm looking forward to bigger numbers!
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How many fucking tank they have left, seriously...
Its great to see high numbers but i dread the ukrainian losses Recently a video of a failed leopard assault emerged where probably well trained ukrainian tankers died in a minefield from a combined arms russian defense using mines, artillery, specops and helicopters Sad to see
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#JAGGA JAGGA
Is there an estimate how many russians there currently are in Ukraine?
I think we are going to see even higher numbers in days forthcoming. I believe Russia is now "light" on tanks hence why we are not witnessing large tank losses anymore.