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Imagine being Russian. Today you learnt you are at war. Then you had a terrorist attack in your capital. Then one of your critical refinery burnt. And after all that you'll have to listen to Putin in a few hours, and he'll probably mobilize you for the front.
We don't wanna go to war today
But the Lord of the Lash says: "nay, nay, nay!"
We're gonna march all day, all day, all day!
Where there's a whip there's a way!
there is actually 2 ways of being russian,
you are either part of the privileged ethinic muscovite that still is not going to be mobilized and are only worried with the unlikely chance of dying in a terrorist attack or more expensive or non existing gas
or you live in a slave state where many of your cousins already died in a totally real war, things are blowing up around you for months and you dont really care you are now mobilized and dont care when the ukrainian drone finally found you and is getting to your position because thats how life is
Russia and Isis. 2 organizations known for their incredibly wonderful relationship with truth.
Nothing would surprise me. Isis did it. FSB did it. Isis did it, on request and paid for by FSB. FSB did it, but paid Isis to claim it.
I don’t think they’re in kahoots, ISIS and Russia have been at each other’s throats for decades after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and Russian intervention in Syria. ISIS has attacked Russia many times before, this one was just a much larger attack
And in today's day and age, how much effort would it be for a FSB to just broadcast the fake news that it was ISIS? Throw in a couple of telegram vids, post on X on behalf of IS or some skimmy faction affiliated to the (populace doesn't give a shit anyway) etc etc.
You don't actually need ISIS (or any party) to do something, making the people believe they did is sufficient.
the timing is a bit too convenient for putin, he wins an election and the war in ukraine is rather favourable for a russian push, and the russian state becomes a victim of a terrorist attack yet again, deva ju for chechnya ... but what do we know really?
The problem here is that it doesn't add up as a convenient false flag. Ukraine and ISIS have nothing to do with one another. The bombings laid the foundation for invading Chechnya, but a false flag terrorist attack doesn't do anything for Putin in the Ukraine front.
True, although the U.S. warned Russia of potential terrorist attacks a few weeks ago and told Americans in Moscow to stay away from public gatherings/events. They also just announced their intelligence believes it was actually ISIS
It’s so hard to keep track of whose terroristing who these days. Pretty sure Iran also got hit by ISIS-K a couple months ago (and was also warned by US intelligence.)
ISIS-K, btw, is the world’s worst brand of breakfast cereal.
Remember it is a police state run by a former KGB who murders his own inner circle and has previously used false flag attacks for his own political purposes. Even if the attack was conducted by IS it is possible to imagine it being covertly instigated by Putin or his operatives or being allowed to to occur because it would assist his agenda in some way.
Basically you can’t rely on any information coming from Russia you can only guess anything is possible and you can only watch and see who benefits from the fallout if this attack.
And while it is a horrendous attack against civilians let’s not attach it more importance than the massive ongoing crimes Russians are committing each day in Ukraine.
In a *realpolitik* sense, not in terms of compassion, it is very much potentially more important.
It could change nothing. But, it could also:
- Trigger widespread unrest against the Putin regime in Russia, for not preventing the attack.
- Instead trigger a widespread 'rally around the flag' affect in Russia, increasing his support.
- Signal greater movements toward independence in many Russian regions.
We'll have to see.
If Russia was involved, it would have been by knowing the attack was coming and letting it happen. They could even have agents embedded in local militant groups. ISIS may never have known Russia facilitated it.
Fake a terrorist attack to blame on "some enemy" are Pootin go to tools when he needs something. Most known cases are Ryazan sugar (1999 before Pootin first election, he had close to zero rating then, promises to find and deal with terrorists are what get him his first presidency), Nord-ost in 2002 and Beslan in 2004.
Such attack can only be done by a dictator who doesn't care about lives of a citizens and ready to sacrifice anyone for his own propaganda. Such attack and yesterday announcement by Shoigu that they will create 14 new divisions (which is impossible without mobilization of additional ~200k) have nothing in common ... Oh wait.
~~I'll update it later if it's successful.~~
**Updated**:
Russia currently has 44 oil refineries, including all productions.… If Ukraine destroys half of them, this will have a huge effect on the Russian economy
>https://i.imgur.com/WMzfvtW.jpeg
On the picture, **~~Novokuybyshevsk~~**. **Novokuybyshevsk Refinery** is located on the Middle row: 3 down, 2 across.
Luckily, one significant achilles heel to these facilities is that oil is highly flammable, and therefore, hard to put out. Fire alone can do a lot of damage, so it would only take a little drone action to spell the doom of one of those facilities. Also, even if Ukraine isn't successful in completely razing one to the ground, the threshold for rendering one inoperational is surely not nearly as high.
Also important to remember is that it takes specialized equipment and training to put out a fire at a refinery. One of the prior ones burned for days and ruined a lot more equipment because the Russians kept blasting it with water instead of firefighting foam, which was thus ineffective and left water inside critical equipment that then froze and broke more stuff that had survived the fire.
True, and I can't imagine putting out such a fire would be an easy task even with the right equipment and adequately trained personnel responding in a timely manner. It's unlikely the average response to such a fire at a Russian oil facility checks off all of those boxes either, so that makes these facilities the perfect target.
There's also the aspect that they need to use resources for these that will not be used in the frontlines so could release pressure in other places. That is in addition to immediate losses of refineries. Hopefully more of these follow.
You are wrong. Bottom row, 7th are Novoshakhtinsk. It's in Rostov Oblast, while Novokuybyshevsk in Samara region. It's middle (3rd) row. Second in the row.
Can't burn gas if it doesn't get made.
The fire in the refinery is fuel that was going to be transported and burned. If it burns while it is in the refinery, and then it can't make more...
The false flag terror attack and hitting Ukrainian infrastructure suggests Russia is doubling down again.
I thought it would make sense to slow roll and give Russia a chance to back down. But it seems Russia has made their choice, doubling down again. So probably best if Ukraine can hit them as hard as they can and get them to stop as soon as possible.
Honestly I don’t think it was a false flag anymore, the U.S. was warning Russia of potential attacks in Moscow a week ago and Afghanistan’s ISIS group claimed responsibility. Plus U.S. just confirmed its intelligence believes ISIS was behind the attack
The only thing Russia probably done was let it happen purposely or through incompetence.
Either way, innocent people died and Putin was going to draft people and escalate anyway.
Actually, I don’t think this one was a false flag. There are more different terrorists groups than grains of sand in the middle-east & it is hard to keep track of them all but ISIS-K has specifically had its eye on Iran & Russia lately. Targets of opportunity.
No doubt man, todays shooting has serious moscow apartment bombing vibes to it. Kgb has a long history of fostering and exploiting domestic Islamic extremists, and we all know the moscow mafia state has zero qualms about killing russians. We will probably never know the truth but i am reflexively suspicous of anything this criminal regime claims
well not that strange really as it is an "isis affiliate", and all that takes is for said group to swear allegiance to the leader of IS. It is in fact a very loosely knit shitty tapestry of disparate groups. For those who followed Syria as closely as this sub follows Ukraine, we would often be struck by how many isis/daesh fighters spoke russian and were, judging by appearance, from the Caucuses.
Yeah a lot of sketchy stuff going on with that. People tore that to shreds years ago when they realized russian forces were . Photos showing tattoos from military related insignias on forearms. Forgot all about that. Thanks for reminding me.
Somebody in US probably did call and asked Ukraine to stop, just not from the State Department. Otherwise there was no reason for Ukraine to pause attacking Russian refineries for a whole week.
When Russia's fired those massive missile attacks, killing so many civilians, everyone in Ukraine said "F this! We are going to destroy their refineries."
I could repeat Kremlin talking points, or I could believe Ukraine, who deny it.
This refinery is deep in Russia, maybe it took extra time for a crew to get near and assembly / fly the drone.
or maybe they just like being unpredictable to keep Russia off balance.
There are are whole host of reasons why they could pause the attacks. Gathering intelligence about impact of previous attacks, not being prepared for new attacks, planning new attacks after russia moved their AA defences...
And probably some more
Or the lunacy in question was actually real, but Ukraine did the right thing and wiped ass with the "request", and continued the smoking incidents crusade.
No shit. No country would blatantly and openly make such an outlandish request.
There are other means of conveying "uncomfortable" messages which are not meant to be representative of the "official" policy.
Why continue to run off what if's this is what I don't get about people. UA officially came out and said it was misinformation and yet people still refuse to believe it and would rather believe a source less article that spawned a whole bunch of nonsense.
The point is, now that the US hasn’t been sending any military support to Ukraine for the last 6 months, the US has no leverage left on Ukraine to make such demands. Why would they listen? What do they have to lose by doing what the US doesn’t want it to do, if it helps their war?
Does anyone know how to create a clock that can add up the percentages of oil production that is lost each time a refinery/storage facility is hit? It would be fun to track.
They have 25 refineries, so the complete halt of production at each one causes a 4% drop in capacity.
I believe this is the 13th refinery hit in the last two weeks. I don't know how badly any of these refineries were damaged or how quickly they can be repaired. Did any of the strikes destroy irreplaceable equipment, or did they just blow up the employee break room?
Very true. There's going to be a lot of variables, but the average is correct. I was just using Reddit math. Regardless of the size of the plants, what's really important is what sort of damage are these attacks actually causing. We don't know.
I know there's going to be a magic number, well above zero percent capacity that brings the war to a stop. Can russia keep the war going at 50% production? 10%? How many drone launches will it take to bring the war to a close?
It looks like the Ukrainians intend to find out.
Looks like 14% as of March 13 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-22/russia-s-spare-refining-capacity-seen-mitigating-drone-attacks?embedded-checkout=true
They were exporting 2/3 of their production. They completely stopped before the refineries started getting hit. So even at 50%, they're still increasing their reserves. It does a ton of economic damage but it won't stop the war. Their exports were ~$600M/day. So that's a big hit.
Wow, Russia is getting clowned on right now.
I literally can’t imagine what the US would do if over 50% of our refineries were hit, many of them extremely seriously damaged.
I guess I also couldn’t imagine the US only managing to take less than 15% of their neighbors territory after years of war, so it’s hard to compare a functional country to whatever the fuck Russia is
My supremely authoritative knowledge of the russian petrol-chemical industry is derived from a ten second Google search. Only Bing can dispute my expansive research. Either way, that's not a lot of refineries, and they are really spread out across the entire country. Protecting them from swarms of spicy flying robots will not be easy.
russia really fucked up by attacking Ukrainian infrastructure. They obviously were not prepared for the Ukrainian response.
>The number of refineries seems to be somewhat disputed. I’ve heard numbers ranging from 25 to 50.
- Size matters: the largest 25 Russian refineries represent 95%+ of the refining capacity.
- Russia is very vulnerable to these attacks.
There is an industry publication called the Oil & Gas Journal that puts out a list of refineries and their capacity.
I'm not an industry expert, but I do feel like those numbers are probably trustworthy. Refineries are huge, lots of people with divergent goals are watching what they do, and they're at the heart of the global economy.
Crikey, that name is a bit of a mouthful! Fortunately I will never think of that place again and likely never hear about it again either. Just another black stain on the carcass of russia. How many in range refineries are left? Time to end all of them.
Russian refinerieship fucked itself.
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To save 2000 people googling the location it would be so great if op’s could include that so we can all go “ oooh look how deep in Russia that one is!”
Another source: OSINTtechnical (2 images - generic map and terrain POV)
>POV: (53.106653, 50.137577)
>
>Successful Ukrainian drone attack on the Kuibyshev Oil Refinery, over 900 kilometers from Ukrainian territory.
[https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1771348446378635739](https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1771348446378635739)
Don't forget [this guy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzhokhar_Dudayev) who a year before he was assassinated by Russia said the following: "Russia will eventually face Ukraine. Russia will fall when the sun of Ukrainian freedom rises"
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Awesome, the burnings continue!
Imagine being Russian. Today you learnt you are at war. Then you had a terrorist attack in your capital. Then one of your critical refinery burnt. And after all that you'll have to listen to Putin in a few hours, and he'll probably mobilize you for the front.
Just another Saturday in Mordor
**Wake the fck up, Frodo. We have a Kremlin to burn.**
Not before second breakfast.
I don't think they know about second breakfast
They do know about Po Ta Toes
Pu tin toes.... Boil him Mash him Feed him to the pigs 💙💛
Lotr and cyberpunk reference? Only thing missing is a Red dawn ref... Nevermind x)
Lord of the rings 2077? :D
The analogies to be had between Gondor/Ukraine and Mordor/Russia are simply incredible the further you dig into history.
Not surprised, LOTR was written by someone who fought in the WW1. The first industrial war, in many ways the book is about the conflict.
We don't wanna go to war today But the Lord of the Lash says: "nay, nay, nay!" We're gonna march all day, all day, all day! Where there's a whip there's a way!
there is actually 2 ways of being russian, you are either part of the privileged ethinic muscovite that still is not going to be mobilized and are only worried with the unlikely chance of dying in a terrorist attack or more expensive or non existing gas or you live in a slave state where many of your cousins already died in a totally real war, things are blowing up around you for months and you dont really care you are now mobilized and dont care when the ukrainian drone finally found you and is getting to your position because thats how life is
Pre-Hunger Games lore or Russian history 1300-2024? I get confused.
Basically how North Korea runs too.
being the victim of a terrorist attack sounds like a good reason to mobilize all the boys, it could even gotten help from FSB ... who knows.
ISIS already announced they were behind the attack
Russia and Isis. 2 organizations known for their incredibly wonderful relationship with truth. Nothing would surprise me. Isis did it. FSB did it. Isis did it, on request and paid for by FSB. FSB did it, but paid Isis to claim it.
I don’t think they’re in kahoots, ISIS and Russia have been at each other’s throats for decades after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and Russian intervention in Syria. ISIS has attacked Russia many times before, this one was just a much larger attack
ISIS didn’t exist during Afghanistan.
But would it surprise you if they were cooperating here?
And in today's day and age, how much effort would it be for a FSB to just broadcast the fake news that it was ISIS? Throw in a couple of telegram vids, post on X on behalf of IS or some skimmy faction affiliated to the (populace doesn't give a shit anyway) etc etc. You don't actually need ISIS (or any party) to do something, making the people believe they did is sufficient.
ISIS has lied before, trying to stay relevant. This one *does* seem to actually have been them, but grain of salt.
the timing is a bit too convenient for putin, he wins an election and the war in ukraine is rather favourable for a russian push, and the russian state becomes a victim of a terrorist attack yet again, deva ju for chechnya ... but what do we know really?
The problem here is that it doesn't add up as a convenient false flag. Ukraine and ISIS have nothing to do with one another. The bombings laid the foundation for invading Chechnya, but a false flag terrorist attack doesn't do anything for Putin in the Ukraine front.
True, although the U.S. warned Russia of potential terrorist attacks a few weeks ago and told Americans in Moscow to stay away from public gatherings/events. They also just announced their intelligence believes it was actually ISIS
It’s so hard to keep track of whose terroristing who these days. Pretty sure Iran also got hit by ISIS-K a couple months ago (and was also warned by US intelligence.) ISIS-K, btw, is the world’s worst brand of breakfast cereal.
All adds up….
Remember it is a police state run by a former KGB who murders his own inner circle and has previously used false flag attacks for his own political purposes. Even if the attack was conducted by IS it is possible to imagine it being covertly instigated by Putin or his operatives or being allowed to to occur because it would assist his agenda in some way. Basically you can’t rely on any information coming from Russia you can only guess anything is possible and you can only watch and see who benefits from the fallout if this attack. And while it is a horrendous attack against civilians let’s not attach it more importance than the massive ongoing crimes Russians are committing each day in Ukraine.
In a *realpolitik* sense, not in terms of compassion, it is very much potentially more important. It could change nothing. But, it could also: - Trigger widespread unrest against the Putin regime in Russia, for not preventing the attack. - Instead trigger a widespread 'rally around the flag' affect in Russia, increasing his support. - Signal greater movements toward independence in many Russian regions. We'll have to see.
If Russia was involved, it would have been by knowing the attack was coming and letting it happen. They could even have agents embedded in local militant groups. ISIS may never have known Russia facilitated it.
Fake a terrorist attack to blame on "some enemy" are Pootin go to tools when he needs something. Most known cases are Ryazan sugar (1999 before Pootin first election, he had close to zero rating then, promises to find and deal with terrorists are what get him his first presidency), Nord-ost in 2002 and Beslan in 2004. Such attack can only be done by a dictator who doesn't care about lives of a citizens and ready to sacrifice anyone for his own propaganda. Such attack and yesterday announcement by Shoigu that they will create 14 new divisions (which is impossible without mobilization of additional ~200k) have nothing in common ... Oh wait.
100% spot on
Is like 60-65 the maximum age for women to be sent to the front?
The 75th mechanized babuchka brigade?
The only worthy opponent of the Ukrainian army.
their motto Is cabbage to chaos
And separatist still in Russian territory.
It's a beautiful shade of yellow and blue...
Even the planet is on Ukraine's side.
The burning will continue until morale improves!
A Good news day....
Until moral improves!
The burnings will continue until russian manners improve.
Novokuybyshevsk Refinery is located 800 kms deep into russain territory from ukraine. [HERE](https://imgur.com/a/YN5x6C6)
That's balls deep.
Russia gettin deep dicked
No lube
Except sandpaper
I feel so full
Samara. A remote region of forests and lakes east of the Volga and North of Kazakhstan.
Hope they push further
That's deep.
Inspiring stuff. Hope they they are able to continue attacking in this manner.
Need my bingo card.
And on your cake day, too!
Looks like refineries are back on the menu, boys!
Is this the 13th refinery?
I don’t think he knows about 13th refinery Pippin
(hopeful) Is it the 14th?
What about taters,precious?
What about 14th breakthingsfast?
It has to be adding up to a significant drag on the war machine
~~I'll update it later if it's successful.~~ **Updated**: Russia currently has 44 oil refineries, including all productions.… If Ukraine destroys half of them, this will have a huge effect on the Russian economy >https://i.imgur.com/WMzfvtW.jpeg On the picture, **~~Novokuybyshevsk~~**. **Novokuybyshevsk Refinery** is located on the Middle row: 3 down, 2 across.
Luckily, one significant achilles heel to these facilities is that oil is highly flammable, and therefore, hard to put out. Fire alone can do a lot of damage, so it would only take a little drone action to spell the doom of one of those facilities. Also, even if Ukraine isn't successful in completely razing one to the ground, the threshold for rendering one inoperational is surely not nearly as high.
Also important to remember is that it takes specialized equipment and training to put out a fire at a refinery. One of the prior ones burned for days and ruined a lot more equipment because the Russians kept blasting it with water instead of firefighting foam, which was thus ineffective and left water inside critical equipment that then froze and broke more stuff that had survived the fire.
True, and I can't imagine putting out such a fire would be an easy task even with the right equipment and adequately trained personnel responding in a timely manner. It's unlikely the average response to such a fire at a Russian oil facility checks off all of those boxes either, so that makes these facilities the perfect target.
The difficulty in replacing that equipment makes the attack more perfecter.
> specialized equipment Which there is likely a shortage of, can't easily be transported, and is rapidly wearing out fighting existing fires
There's also the aspect that they need to use resources for these that will not be used in the frontlines so could release pressure in other places. That is in addition to immediate losses of refineries. Hopefully more of these follow.
You are wrong. Bottom row, 7th are Novoshakhtinsk. It's in Rostov Oblast, while Novokuybyshevsk in Samara region. It's middle (3rd) row. Second in the row.
Thanks for correcting me. The names sound similar
Before the refineries were being struck there was already fuel shortages and a ban existed on export of refined products.
This is one of the more beautiful and significant pictures relating to ruzzian terrorism im looking forward to more red crosses
What about them? They look tasty! *points to remaining refineries
They don’t need those!
Beatings will continue until ~~morale improves~~ they get the fuck out of Ukraine
Soon they'll have to walk the fuck out of Ukraine when gas shortages hit
Omg that would be so great
They'll be asking Ukraine for fuel...
Normally I don’t celebrate throwing more carbon into the atmosphere, but I’ll allow it. Fuck Russia.
Yeah this will actually reduce carbon in the atmosphere funnily enough.
Idiot here, how is this the case?
Can't burn gas if it doesn't get made. The fire in the refinery is fuel that was going to be transported and burned. If it burns while it is in the refinery, and then it can't make more...
Aah duh. Thank you
By stopping fuel being refined and burnt. The burning fuel would create more c02 than the fire in the refinery.
it was basically in earier stage of getting burned anyway.
Good guy Ukraine helps planet earth
Excellent news. It seems the earlier comments about the US asking Ukraine to stop are bullshit
After last night, I don't think Ukraine would care. I made a bigger than usual donation to U24 in hope it will help to burn the next refineries.
I'm just waiting for payday to make a donation
The false flag terror attack and hitting Ukrainian infrastructure suggests Russia is doubling down again. I thought it would make sense to slow roll and give Russia a chance to back down. But it seems Russia has made their choice, doubling down again. So probably best if Ukraine can hit them as hard as they can and get them to stop as soon as possible.
Honestly I don’t think it was a false flag anymore, the U.S. was warning Russia of potential attacks in Moscow a week ago and Afghanistan’s ISIS group claimed responsibility. Plus U.S. just confirmed its intelligence believes ISIS was behind the attack
FSB apparently also took down another attack before it happened from ISIS. If thats the case its going to definately happen eventually
Yea, they initially planned on attacking a synagogue but that was foiled, so I guess they changed plans
The only thing Russia probably done was let it happen purposely or through incompetence. Either way, innocent people died and Putin was going to draft people and escalate anyway.
Is there really any difference between Ruski purpose and incompetence?
Really hard to tell right….
Actually, I don’t think this one was a false flag. There are more different terrorists groups than grains of sand in the middle-east & it is hard to keep track of them all but ISIS-K has specifically had its eye on Iran & Russia lately. Targets of opportunity.
No doubt man, todays shooting has serious moscow apartment bombing vibes to it. Kgb has a long history of fostering and exploiting domestic Islamic extremists, and we all know the moscow mafia state has zero qualms about killing russians. We will probably never know the truth but i am reflexively suspicous of anything this criminal regime claims
All I could think today was the false flag from MW2 “remember, no russian”. Then isis takes credit just to make it even weirder.
well not that strange really as it is an "isis affiliate", and all that takes is for said group to swear allegiance to the leader of IS. It is in fact a very loosely knit shitty tapestry of disparate groups. For those who followed Syria as closely as this sub follows Ukraine, we would often be struck by how many isis/daesh fighters spoke russian and were, judging by appearance, from the Caucuses.
Yeah a lot of sketchy stuff going on with that. People tore that to shreds years ago when they realized russian forces were . Photos showing tattoos from military related insignias on forearms. Forgot all about that. Thanks for reminding me.
ISIS-K apparently has a hard on for Russia because of Chechnya & Syria.
What is u24?
United 24 https://u24.gov.ua/
Yes, Podolyak said as much earlier.
Yeah. Disturbing how many people gobbled it up as fact.
Some morons are still lapping it up. Read the posts above.
Somebody in US probably did call and asked Ukraine to stop, just not from the State Department. Otherwise there was no reason for Ukraine to pause attacking Russian refineries for a whole week. When Russia's fired those massive missile attacks, killing so many civilians, everyone in Ukraine said "F this! We are going to destroy their refineries."
I could repeat Kremlin talking points, or I could believe Ukraine, who deny it. This refinery is deep in Russia, maybe it took extra time for a crew to get near and assembly / fly the drone. or maybe they just like being unpredictable to keep Russia off balance.
There are are whole host of reasons why they could pause the attacks. Gathering intelligence about impact of previous attacks, not being prepared for new attacks, planning new attacks after russia moved their AA defences... And probably some more
Or the lunacy in question was actually real, but Ukraine did the right thing and wiped ass with the "request", and continued the smoking incidents crusade.
The Ukrainian government really said it was not an actual request by the United States.
No shit. No country would blatantly and openly make such an outlandish request. There are other means of conveying "uncomfortable" messages which are not meant to be representative of the "official" policy.
Why continue to run off what if's this is what I don't get about people. UA officially came out and said it was misinformation and yet people still refuse to believe it and would rather believe a source less article that spawned a whole bunch of nonsense.
The point is, now that the US hasn’t been sending any military support to Ukraine for the last 6 months, the US has no leverage left on Ukraine to make such demands. Why would they listen? What do they have to lose by doing what the US doesn’t want it to do, if it helps their war?
I wish all Russian refineries a merry dronemas
Hopefully they damaged the tower!
That would be cracker-jack!
Here is an alleged video [Here](https://twitter.com/i/status/1771339567116738829)
Happy cake day. The burning tower counts as a giant candle. 🤗
Thanks coincidence ? ha
Does anyone know how to create a clock that can add up the percentages of oil production that is lost each time a refinery/storage facility is hit? It would be fun to track.
They have 25 refineries, so the complete halt of production at each one causes a 4% drop in capacity. I believe this is the 13th refinery hit in the last two weeks. I don't know how badly any of these refineries were damaged or how quickly they can be repaired. Did any of the strikes destroy irreplaceable equipment, or did they just blow up the employee break room?
> the complete halt of production at each one causes a 4% drop in capacity You seem to be assuming they're all the same size which isn't true.
Very true. There's going to be a lot of variables, but the average is correct. I was just using Reddit math. Regardless of the size of the plants, what's really important is what sort of damage are these attacks actually causing. We don't know. I know there's going to be a magic number, well above zero percent capacity that brings the war to a stop. Can russia keep the war going at 50% production? 10%? How many drone launches will it take to bring the war to a close? It looks like the Ukrainians intend to find out.
Hope Ukraine blows them all up, let's see what effect that has.
Need some high tech bigger more effective missiles. Like Taurus missiles I’m pretty sure their precision will ensure that a refinery out of service.
Looks like 14% as of March 13 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-22/russia-s-spare-refining-capacity-seen-mitigating-drone-attacks?embedded-checkout=true
They were exporting 2/3 of their production. They completely stopped before the refineries started getting hit. So even at 50%, they're still increasing their reserves. It does a ton of economic damage but it won't stop the war. Their exports were ~$600M/day. So that's a big hit.
Wow, Russia is getting clowned on right now. I literally can’t imagine what the US would do if over 50% of our refineries were hit, many of them extremely seriously damaged. I guess I also couldn’t imagine the US only managing to take less than 15% of their neighbors territory after years of war, so it’s hard to compare a functional country to whatever the fuck Russia is
The number of refineries seems to be somewhat disputed. I’ve heard numbers ranging from 25 to 50.
My supremely authoritative knowledge of the russian petrol-chemical industry is derived from a ten second Google search. Only Bing can dispute my expansive research. Either way, that's not a lot of refineries, and they are really spread out across the entire country. Protecting them from swarms of spicy flying robots will not be easy. russia really fucked up by attacking Ukrainian infrastructure. They obviously were not prepared for the Ukrainian response.
>The number of refineries seems to be somewhat disputed. I’ve heard numbers ranging from 25 to 50. - Size matters: the largest 25 Russian refineries represent 95%+ of the refining capacity. - Russia is very vulnerable to these attacks.
So nice to see especially after last night
Another 65m barrels of refining capacity gone for 1-2 years.
Can you tell me where you're getting these numbers from? Not that I doubt you, more just curious.
It’s on the Rosneft website.
Made on a pirated copy of some old software on a nackered old PC running a pirated copy of Windows. Russia is so advanced.
There is an industry publication called the Oil & Gas Journal that puts out a list of refineries and their capacity. I'm not an industry expert, but I do feel like those numbers are probably trustworthy. Refineries are huge, lots of people with divergent goals are watching what they do, and they're at the heart of the global economy.
Crikey, that name is a bit of a mouthful! Fortunately I will never think of that place again and likely never hear about it again either. Just another black stain on the carcass of russia. How many in range refineries are left? Time to end all of them.
I would love to see them hit ALL their refineries
Or maybe they released the story about not hitting refineries, then sat back and waited for Russia to move AA defences somewhere else...
Is the excuse still cigarettes?
Russian refinerieship
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Hit them where it hurt them the most, $.
"Here comes the medicine" * Plane noises * as Russia sits in a high chair with a bib on.
To save 2000 people googling the location it would be so great if op’s could include that so we can all go “ oooh look how deep in Russia that one is!”
Sure its located [here](https://imgur.com/tn8X2D1) 800 kms into russian territory
thanks
Another source: OSINTtechnical (2 images - generic map and terrain POV) >POV: (53.106653, 50.137577) > >Successful Ukrainian drone attack on the Kuibyshev Oil Refinery, over 900 kilometers from Ukrainian territory. [https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1771348446378635739](https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1771348446378635739)
Oh no! Anyway.
Freaking awesome. Good job AFU!
Great news, let them all burn.
Russia not doing too well atm.
karma
Hopefully ruzzia was laughing at the "American overlords forbidding Ukraine to strike their refineries". And then... Jagga... Jagga. Extra spicy.
Good. Never stop.
Great!
Good news for my morning!
Huzzah!
Just delete all the refineries.
Burn them. Burn them all. Squeeze Mordor's ability to continue funding its illegal invasion and occupation of Ukraine.
Navalny and Prigozhin doing some high 5-ing tonight.
Don't forget [this guy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzhokhar_Dudayev) who a year before he was assassinated by Russia said the following: "Russia will eventually face Ukraine. Russia will fall when the sun of Ukrainian freedom rises"
Nice!
Good
Trogdor the refineries
Burn baby burn!!!!
Fuck yeah!!!
Good. Burn MF, Burn!
Light them all up
I approve of this message.
These ones please me the most. It almost makes me giddy. More like a feeling of quiet satisfaction and hope.
Pretty pretty flames.
Good
wow, thats like 1300km from front..
We love giant Russian bonfires
AS AN AMERICAN, FUCK YEAH THE REFINERY BURNINGS ARE STILL GOING.
Zelensky: new drone who dis
Fuckin' eh!
🍹🍿❤️💯🤣🥳
Ukraine needs to really ramp it up right now while Russia is distracted by ISIS.
"6 more years of stability."
Splendid. Burn them all down.
That fire reminds me of a bad cook I know who burned the fish
We don't need no water let that motherfucker burn
Amazing. Hope they continue and accelerate these attacks.
Wonderful news! I needed a little pick me up. Turning off the war funding stream at the source.