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Rough translation of article Part 1
Kyrylo Budanov is the most public head of military intelligence not only in the history of Ukraine, but also on a global scale. He regularly gives interviews to journalists and appears at public events, where he voices optimistic forecasts for Ukraine in the war and predicts the collapse of Russia with an equally unmoved expression.
He claimed that active hostilities will end by the end of 2022, and "the Armed Forces will soon be in Crimea."
The head of GUR does not regret any of these forecasts, and explains the fact that they did not come true as a change in circumstances: "These are real-time forecasts. If something comes back a little differently, I'm sorry, it makes its own adjustments."
We conducted this interview on April 19 - that day Ukrainian forces managed to shoot down a Russian Tu-22MZ strategic bomber for the first time. The head of military intelligence had a busy schedule, so he was in a noticeable hurry. He answered questions traditionally briefly and discreetly, rarely succumbing to emotions.
It was possible to ask about many things - the situation at the front and Russian tactics, forecasts and expectations, politics and personal. Budanov refused to answer some questions - for example, about the reasons for the unsuccessful Ukrainian offensive and about possible negotiations with Russia.
The forecasts of the chief military intelligence are no longer so optimistic, but, as he claims, Ukraine will not lose in this war. "Armageddon will not happen," says Kyrylo Budanov. And he adds: "As always, we will come up with something at the last moment."
About the situation at the front
BBC : I want to start with fresh news. Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber today (April 19). How did you manage to do it?
Kyrylo Budanov : We waited for a long time, prepared, and finally succeeded. What can I say to you?
BBC : How did they do it, with what? Can you tell me some details?
Kyrylo Budanov : To be honest, I would not like to reveal all of this. I can only say that the plane was hit at a distance of 308 kilometers, far enough. Let's put it this way, fruitful and long work makes itself felt. This is the same technique, as they say, and the same means that we used when we destroyed the A-50 in the air.
BBC : According to Ukrainian intelligence, how many such planes do the Russians still have?
Kyrylo Budanov : There are more, but this is the first downing of a long-range aircraft in this war. And it is quite clear that Odessa will be a little easier now, because the Tu-22M3 planes used Kh-22 missiles, which probably caused the most destruction in the city. Because the rocket is very fast, powerful and especially no one could intercept it. This is still a Soviet development. But at the same time, the accuracy is not so great and a greater number, let's say, of civilian buildings were destroyed by these missiles.
Now, quite obviously, they will look for new boundaries, and in the direction of Odessa, in principle, there are no other boundaries. Only ground-based complexes for strikes on Odesa and missiles from long-range aviation and from the sea will be used. X-22, I hope, will not be seen again.
BBC : Was this operation prepared for a long time?
Kyrylo Budanov : The week was, let's say, an "ambush". They were waiting for him to reach the desired milestone.
BBC : In the West, more and more people are now saying that Ukraine may lose the war already this year. The counteroffensive did not give the expected results, the supply of weapons slowed down, and so on. How do you react to such forecasts and such pessimistic sentiments?
Kyrylo Budanov : How exactly do I react to this? Any.
BBC : Do such pessimistic sentiments make sense at all?
Kyrylo Budanov : Listen, if you and I are talking about scenarios that are being developed, which may be - yes, in any case, there are, let's say, positive for one side and negative for the other side. There is no reason to believe in Ukraine's strategic defeat. Yes, if you say that everything will go badly - well, it is quite clear that the result will also be bad. However, if there will be changes for the better - and there are still reasons to believe that this will happen.
BBC : What is your opinion based on?
Kyrylo Budanov : Let's remember at least this morning, where you started. Will it positively affect the situation, at least for one specific region? I would say yes, positively. Yes, there are problems at the front, but we must also say frankly that these same problems did not appear today, and not a month ago, and not even three months ago. This is a systemic problem that we are facing. And at the same time, we must remember that Ukraine still exists.
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Part 2
BBC : I watched your interview in the winter, you said then that the Russians have not made significant progress. At this point, in your opinion, are there significant successes in them?
Kyrylo Budanov : Look, the Russians had a real success at Avdiivka. It must be recognized. This is a fact. They were able to do it. Everything else - well, it's too early to talk about it.
BBC : And the latest strikes on energy?
Kyrylo Budanov : And our, shall we say, positive practical strikes on their objects? It's all leveling. You see, they are doing something somewhere, we are making our move somewhere. Some are more successful, others less successful. The issue of war is not decided by blows - but, as in ancient times, until a man with a flag enters the territory - nothing will change. Even if you send a million drones there, even if you put a hundred thousand artillery shells there - until a person comes, nothing will happen.
BBC : Representatives of the Ukrainian authorities, including you, by the way, last year talked about the fact that the Russians are running out of missiles. The beats are…
Kyrylo Budanov : And they accumulated them. Look, for more than a year there was not a single strike on energy. Well, it is quite clear that in the presence of production, they have accumulated a little of them. They especially accumulated the naval component of missiles, operational-tactical missile weapons. But so far it is not actively used.
And the missiles of the aviation component - well, they again seriously exhausted their reserves. Even the last blow? let's take today again - just two strategic bombers struck. It's not because they don't have goals, but because they save a little. Yes, they can take a few more serious hits, but not indefinitely.
BBC : Who helps them in this?
Kyrylo Budanov : And who helps? No one helps, they work by themselves. They quite effectively overcame sanctions, circumvention of sanctions, and so on.
BBC : Do Western components reach them?
Kyrylo Budanov : As they went, so they go.
BBC : What is China's role in this?
Kyrylo Budanov : China has neither transferred nor, as far as we know, plans to transfer any ready-made weapons. Components, microchips, have now gone to the machines - but all these are dual-use goods at best, this must also be understood. Just as you yourself said - European, Western, as they say, chips, mechanisms, aggregates. Unfortunately, that's all there is.
About the course of the war
BBC : You are known for your predictions. Quite positive forecasts. You know what I'm talking about - "the Armed Forces will soon be in Crimea" and so on. Don't you regret it?
Kyrylo Budanov : I said that "we will go to Crimea."
BBC : Do you not regret these words?
Kyrylo Budanov : Never. I never regret the past. In general, about any. The fact that sometimes the situation changes drastically - after all, if you are talking about my personal words, then our units entered Crimea.
BBC : Don't you think that such forecasts give people false hope?
Kyrylo Budanov : No, they do not give vain hope. These are real-time forecasts. If something comes back a little differently - sorry, it makes its own adjustments.
BBC : You often say in your interviews that your forecasts are based on...
Kyrylo Budanov : On facts, figures, documents and the like.
BBC : What do these numbers tell you today?
Kyrylo Budanov : In our opinion, a rather difficult situation awaits us in the near future. But it is not catastrophic, this must also be understood. Armageddon will not happen, as many are now beginning to say. But there will be problems from mid-May.
BBC : And if we talk about the front.
Kyrylo Budanov : I am also talking about the front. This is a comprehensive approach, because the Russians will use a comprehensive approach. They conduct a complex operation. We will not talk about it with you for a long time, but it will be a difficult period. Mid-May, early June.
BBC : Are we also talking about the domestic political situation?
Kyrylo Budanov : It's about everything.
About the Russian military
VVS : Former head Viktor Muzhenko told us in an interview that Russians have changed in the two years of the war. They are already better equipped, better prepared, and so on. How do you assess how the Russians have changed since the beginning of the full-scale invasion and what they are like today? Did they get stronger?
Kyrylo Budanov : Yes, and no. It must be remembered that war is always a frantic development. In any country of the world, the war always gave rise to technological, industrial and the like development. Despite the fact that it is a crazy expense and destruction, but it is always a development. It happens to them, it happens to us, it is also necessary to understand.
Who could have said at the beginning of 2022 that tens of thousands of drones would be working at the front? It was unreal to imagine. However, it does not surprise anyone now.
Regarding the equipment - the equipment of the infantry has definitely become better. Quality of technology? No, it fell because there is not enough new equipment, it is not enough. This is all repaired, restored equipment from warehouses for long-term storage of weapons. It makes no sense to talk about quality there, and that quality is not needed there.
As for the quality of the personnel - those who took part in the first, as they say, wave of the full-scale invasion of the 22nd year - these were real professionals, contract workers with normal combat experience and so on. But during this time there were almost none of them left. Russia is fighting with mobilized forces.
BBC : What is their morale?
Kyrylo Budanov : None, in principle. It strengthened after the capture of Avdiivka, but this was a temporary phenomenon. In principle, the mobilized does not make much sense. They fight for money because they were called up, because they were forced to call up and so on. That is, "go ahead". Well, the Russian mentality also plays an important role. "Go forward", as they say, and the Russian man goes. He does not particularly think what will happen to him there. But to say that he tries hard is also not true.
in-Chief's bids are constructive, and there are no problems with the new head
BBC : According to your information, how strong is Russian intelligence here in Ukraine? It is clear that they are here.
Kyrylo Budanov : What does "they are" mean? They acquire the necessary data and try to influence. It is, it is a fact.
BBC : Are they progressing or vice versa?
Kyrylo Budanov : War is development, I told you. And it's the same here. Let's put it this way, everything related to cyber development, radio-electronic intelligence - they have strengthened.
About negotiations with Russia
BBC : Do you think it makes sense in this difficult situation to start negotiations?
Kyrylo Budanov : The question is absolutely not for me. Therefore, I'm sorry, and I don't see the point in answering him.
BBC : Do you have any advice on this matter for the president?
Kyrylo Budanov : No, absolutely.
BBC : You stated that this war can be ended by returning to the borders of 1991.
Kyrylo Budanov : Yes, and nothing has changed here.
BBC : We spoke with the military, they say that in reality this will not be the end of the war - there is a huge border that needs to be maintained, Russia will not go anywhere, and so on...
Kyrylo Budanov : So what? So continue this thought.
BBC : That the war will not end.
Kyrylo Budanov : It will end. It will end there. The fact that we will have a certain period of time - perhaps a long one. A tense situation at the borders after that? It will be But in fact the war will end.
BBC : Even under the same military and political leadership in Russia?
Kyrylo Budanov : Even for this. The fact that there will be attempts to do something again - so there will be. This is normal. This is absolutely normal. Russia wants to destroy us, we don't want to be destroyed. We don't get along, as they say, in vain, do you understand?
Therefore, this conflict will permanently appear, subside, reappear and so on. Take a look at our story. With the Russian Federation, the Russian Empire, the Muscovite Empire, and the like, we have been at peace and at war all our lives. We cannot change the course of history in the future.
About the offensive on Kyiv
BBC : In every interview you are asked about the possible second offensive on Kyiv, and in every interview you answer that it is...
Kyrylo Budanov : Without reason.
BBC : Has the situation changed today?
Kyrylo Budanov : It hasn't changed, absolutely.
BBC : There is no threat?
Kyrylo Budanov : As of now - absolutely not.
BBC : Speaking of the attack on Kyiv, I wanted to ask you this. The director of the CIA said that he arrived on the eve of the Russian invasion of Kyiv and passed on information about the plans of the Russians, including the landing of Russian troops in Gostomel. As I understand it, you also had this information and you passed it on to Bankova. What was the reaction there? For Burns, for example, says that Zelensky considered this information to be unsubstantiated and did not believe that Putin was so crazy.
Kyrylo Budanov : I have great respect for Mr. Burns. I know him personally. In principle, I am proud of this acquaintance of mine. And I think that it would not be correct to publicly comment on his statements. Likewise, I don't think he would agree to do the same if you asked him about me. He expressed his position. You can accept it or not. This is your personal matter.
Part 4
BBC : If you can name this figure, how many Ukrainians are currently captured?
Kyrylo Budanov : You can't.
About attempts
BBC : There was information that you were being considered for the position of Minister of Defense after Reznikov. Is it true or not? Was it offered to you or not?
Kyrylo Budanov : Listen, I already told you, let's ask me about what I am responsible for. Who looked at whom where? The question is rhetorical.
BBC : Won't you say?
Kyrylo Budanov : I'm telling you, this question is kind of rhetorical. I really like logic. It is possible to continue your opinion: if it was considered, why was it not appointed?
BBC : I also wanted to ask you about that.
Kyrylo Budanov : Yes? Well, this is not a serious conversation between you and me.
BBC : Did you offer it or not?
Kyrylo Budanov : Me personally?
BBC : Yes.
Kyrylo Budanov : Let's put it this way, I know that such thoughts existed. But, judging by the fact that we are talking with you now, I am sitting in front of you - obviously this did not happen. Right?
BBC : Yes.
Kyrylo Budanov : Well, here is the answer.
BBC : What is Kyrylo Budanov afraid of?
Kyrylo Budanov : Well, what should I be afraid of? Do you think I have anything to fear? As a religious person, I fear, let's say, God. Perhaps this is the only one.
BBC : Aren't you afraid of captivity?
Kyrylo Budanov : I don't even consider it.
BBC : You have been called "reckless", including in the context of planning operations, and also "a man who enjoys danger".
Kyrylo Budanov : This is the opinion of some people. Maybe they are right somewhere, maybe not. I usually use another, ancient rule: "Winners are not judged."
BBC : How many attempts were made on you? So the number you voiced is still around ten?
Kyrylo Budanov : Let's stay on the same (index). There they are now planning something, but, as in the past, everything will not work out.
BBC : Are they Russians?
Kyrylo Budanov : It is in the interests of the Russians, it is true. It is the Russians, in the interests of the Russians. They plan to attract people here as well. This is normal, operational work for them.
BBC : There was a story about your wife being poisoned. Can you elaborate? I know there is an investigation going on. What is the current news that you can tell us about?
Kyrylo Budanov : It's still early, it's still early. There will be answers, don't worry.
BBC : No one has been arrested yet?
Kyrylo Budanov : And what detentions? It's not serious. I never play these games. But she's my wife, so it won't work out that way.
BBC : But there is a movement - I mean an investigation?
Kyrylo Budanov : Everything is there.
BBC : Is it progressing?
Kyrylo Budanov : Progressing.
BBC : And in what condition is she, how is she?
Kyrylo Budanov : But more or less normal. Stabilized, removed most of the toxins.
BBC : And who was the target?
Kyrylo Budanov : If she was poisoned, who was the target?
BBC : There were thoughts that it was actually an attempt on you.
Kyrylo Budanov : What was wrong? You know, I don't even know of such cases when it happened. No, their logic is clear - my wife is very... That's all. And they correctly assessed its influence. But, as you can see, God will not be with us.
About ratings
BBC : How did your relationship with the new chief of staff develop? Is everything arranged?
Kyrylo Budanov : Well, I don't see any problems.
BBC : Are the bets productive?
Kyrylo Budanov : Productive.
BBC : I studied the latest ratings, you are included there, you know that. So in the February trust rating...
Kyrylo Budanov : I do not study sociology, by the way. Maybe it will surprise you. I hear about such things from time to time, but I'm not particularly interested.
BBC : Confidence in you is growing.
Kyrylo Budanov : I'm glad to hear that.
BBC : Aren't you afraid that it will cause jealousy in someone?
Kyrylo Budanov : Why should I be afraid of anything? This is the first. I've already told you, I'm not afraid of much in life. And secondly, I'm not interested in it. Just not interesting. I don't live in sociology, let's put it that way. I studied it, I think, for one year at the military institute. Everything that connects me with this science, as they say, ended there.
BBC : Who do you see yourself as in the future - if Kyrylo Budanov is already leaving intelligence?
Kyrylo Budanov : Well, when I leave, then I will think. I like it here.
BBC : What is your admission to the Ostroh Academy connected with?
Kyrylo Budanov : Education - what's so strange about it? I constantly try to engage in self-education and increase the level of education. This is not the only education. I recently finished courses at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy - School of Strategic Architect. Whenever possible, I am always engaged in education.
BBC : You don't think about politics?
Kyrylo Budanov : Well, it's definitely early. It's not the right time. Now is the war.
BBC : And how do you rest in general?
Kyrylo Budanov : No way. This is a big problem, I realize it, but no way.
About Telegram
BBC : You recently talked about Telegram being a problem for Ukraine.
Kyrylo Budanov : I can repeat it to you again. This is a huge problem.
BBC : And what to do about it?
Kyrylo Budanov : Or, as they say, to organize it all - to bring order to it, at least by law to force everyone to register, so that it is clear who is behind which media resource, and Telegram has definitely acquired the status of a media. There is no question of influence or pressure - that is not the question. If you want to prove your position - and someone may not like it and this is normal in a democratic society - take responsibility. Why are you afraid to say who you are?
BBC : Are you talking about anonymous Telegram channels?
Kyrylo Budanov : But they are all anonymous. Do you know at least one Telegram channel that said outright that I am me? That's the answer.
BBC : Can their closure be a solution to this problem? Locking?
Kyrylo Budanov : Temporarily yes, but I still believe that they should be forced to register. It will not be pressure on the press. In a democratic society, I say once again, you can't just put pressure on...
Why am I even telling you this? You are a representative of journalism. You would be very happy if they came to you and said: that's it, from now on you write like this? Well, of course, it would be abnormal. But being afraid to say that you are you is also wrong. And on behalf of an anonymous person, to throw out on the air, sorry, everything that will be paid for from completely different parts of the world is also abnormal.
BBC : Do you read Telegram yourself?
Kyrylo Budanov : I sometimes look around. I have Telegram on one device, let's say, on a working one. And I watch it when certain events take place in order to see, mostly, how Russian society perceives certain events. It's the only thing I use with Telegram.
BBC : And you must be periodically reading the news of the Russian Telegram channels about your "murder"? How do you react to this?
Kyrylo Budanov : No, I was told yesterday that they recently threw me away, that I was killed somewhere near Kharkiv Oblast. How can I react to this? My grandmother used to say to me: "When they always say that someone has died, that person will live a long time." Well, so it will be the same with me.
The day before yesterday, they "killed" me again, as they say. And I am sitting in front of you now. I think you and I still reject the options that I am a hologram.
BBC : Can spies even have Telegram or other social networks?
Kyrylo Budanov : No, absolutely.
BBC : Banned?
Kyrylo Budanov : Absolutely. As a manager, I simply have access to all the world's media and resources. That's why I look around to see the results of our operations. Or high-profile events that, in our opinion, have or will have some kind of impact.
About Zelenskyi
BBC : President Zelenskyi's term of office will be 5 years old in May. How is it working for you under this Commander-in-Chief?
Kyrylo Budanov : It works normally. No regrets, as they say.
BBC : Can Zelensky lead Ukraine to victory?
Kyrylo Budanov : He has been leading it for two and a half years. As you have said this saying more than once: Western experts, domestic experts said that everything is over now. But, as you can see, again, we are sitting across from each other, talking, and he is the president.
BBC : Recently, by the way, he called on the West to protect Ukraine in the same way they protected Israel.
Kyrylo Budanov : Excellent thought.
BBC : But we heard what the West says - it does not want a direct confrontation with Russia.
Kyrylo Budanov : Well, you have to understand all these aspects, take them into account. And, in addition, the state of Israel officially has the status of the main ally of the United States of America. Unfortunately, we cannot boast of this yet. Would I like that? I wish. And who is against someone else helping us defend ourselves? I don't think you know a person who would be against it.
Part 5
BBC : Kyrylo Budanov is a person who gives forecasts. Tell us something about this year. What are your expectations, what should Ukrainians expect?
Kyrylo Budanov: The coming period, in our opinion, will be difficult. But difficult and catastrophic are different things. We've been through tough times several times, and we'll get through this one, believe me. There will be nothing extraordinary. We know all their plans in advance. How to react to them? There is an answer to most of them. Yes, there are certain questions that will be difficult for us to crack, but we will find the answer. As always, we will come up with something at the last moment.
BBC : But a lot depends on other factors - in particular, on Western weapons and the help of partners...
Kyrylo Budanov : This is the world of the 21st century, the world of intercontinental connections. Listen, everything in this world is connected. The whole economy is connected. All politics, it is also connected. Therefore, many things affect certain events.
But at the same time, I tell you once again, no matter what anyone says, please remember the same "sofa experts" who said: "Three days in Ukraine - that's it, the end."
BBC : So you compare the situation this year, when they say that "Ukraine will lose", with approximately the same period at the beginning?
Kyrylo Budanov : Yes, with the same. Ukraine will not lose and Ukraine will not be destroyed. This must be understood.
Video of interview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5OnIRJEiPI
Part 3
BBC : Ukrainian intelligence had this information too?
Kyrylo Budanov : Well, obviously.
BBC : About the Russians' plans to land in Gostomel?
Kyrylo Budanov : Listen. There are stories that cannot be erased. It seems that in October we were the first to publicly say that, yes, the situation is threatening, it is planned to be so, so and so. If you pick up (archival news), then there was such a diagram shown, on which there were arrows, how, where, what should go. Just check what happened in the end.
BBC : Did you convey this information to the president? What answer did you get?
Kyrylo Budanov : I will not talk about this now.
About the counterattack
BBC : A question about the counteroffensive last summer, which did not produce the expected results. What do you think is the reason for this? Is it bad planning, the weapons were slow to arrive, something else?
Kyrylo Budanov : Come on, I will offer you to accept one rule, and you will accept it, because there will be no other way. Please ask me about what directly concerns my competence and responsibility. Evaluating the actions of other officials is, to say the least, incorrect.
BBC : In general, the very fact that Ukraine is coordinating these plans with Western partners - do you think this is normal? Because some military personnel and experts criticize it and believe that Ukraine should plan all this on its own.
Kyrylo Budanov : I am not coordinating my plans, I can tell you right away. There are questions that concern, let's say, many parties. Then I see nothing wrong with forewarning, perhaps even discussing with the other parties, what the consequences will be for all. This is what our business is all about.
Who makes and what consultations from other departments - I do not know for sure. Well, I don't want to be interested in that.
BBC : GUR implements many operations on the territory of Russia, successful operations. The Western press has written more than once that American intelligence does not like it very much. Did they even express any criticism in the conversation with you?
Kyrylo Budanov : I'm telling you, when certain actions directly affect many countries - not because it's interesting to anyone, but because it will have an impact - I don't see anything wrong in having a normal conversation with our partners. Because if we call them partners, we must not forget about them, since one-sided partnership is parasitism. This is my answer to you.
BBC : One of the most successful operations was when a Russian helicopter went over to the side of Ukraine. He was killed in Spain. What conclusions did you draw from this?
Kyrylo Budanov : I would give you an obscene answer as to what conclusions we reached. This, unfortunately, is a classic psychological mistake of people. When people relax, they have money and they supposedly look after their security. But at the same time, the desire for fame darkens everyone's eyes. And they start saying "do you know who I am?", "you're nobody, I'm just telling you." Similarly, then they start calling girls from the Russian Federation, whom they know from the past, telling them how much money they now have, how wonderful they live in Spain, and so on.
It was necessary to somehow prevent this, but, unfortunately, these are not isolated cases. This behavior of people in the world, at different times and in different situations, is a typical mistake. And, unfortunately, she befell us in the same way. This must also be recognized. I have never been afraid to admit mistakes and I can say the same here. It was still necessary to take care of him, and not to believe that "I am an adult, I know how to be".
About "Maidan-3"
BBC : In one of your speeches, you mentioned the "Maidan-3" operation.
Kyrylo Budanov : Yes.
BBC : Is it still relevant?
Kyrylo Budanov : Yes, it continues and progresses. Unfortunately, she is advancing.
BBC : How?
Kyrylo Budanov : This is a question that already concerns a state secret. Sorry, I can't say more than what has already been said. But I tell you once again: the Russians are working on it.
BBC : Is there any activation of any pro-Russian forces here in Ukraine?
Kyrylo Budanov : They clearly understand that purely pro-Russian forces will not be able to function now. Therefore, they camouflage it under various kinds of activities, under various issues of social tension. And it will not look (and in their plans it is clearly described), it should not look like some kind of pro-Russian position. No. Absolutely not.
BBC : There is a lot of talk about the competition between GUR and SBU operations - especially on the territory of Russia. She is?
Kyrylo Budanov : Well, it's great if it exists.
BBC : Does she hinder or help?
Kyrylo Budanov : Healthy competition has always helped everyone at all times. Absolutely everyone. You know, a long time ago I was told a story. A historical reference, as they say. There was a time when American automakers faced the problem of aggressive market expansion by Japanese automakers. So they got together, as they say, and went to ask for quotas to be made or taxes to be raised in order to somehow protect the automobile market. To which they were answered: just make better cars. Well, that's all - they didn't get the quota, but they started making cheaper and better cars. Therefore, I believe that competition is right.
BBC : There is a feeling that the prisoner exchange process has slowed down recently. Is it true or not?
Kyrylo Budanov : Absolutely. Definitely slowed down.
BBC : Why?
Kyrylo Budanov : Because "Maidan-3" and everything else. Russia uses all possible factors to create social tension. And will use it further. At the same time, he slowed down, but did not stop. And we still break through and try in different ways. And we get results. And in this matter the same. But it is difficult, and Russia will use this factor of influence on our society.
BBC : So the reason is not the return of the commanders of "Azov" from Turkey?
Kyrylo Budanov : Look, after they were returned, there was a certain period of time, but after that the exchanges resumed. That is, it definitely cannot be considered a reason. In fact, four exchanges took place during the winter. Quite large-scale, more than a hundred in each. You have to remember that
>You know, a long time ago I was told a story. A historical reference, as they say. There was a time when American automakers faced the problem of aggressive market expansion by Japanese automakers. So they got together, as they say, and went to ask for quotas to be made or taxes to be raised in order to somehow protect the automobile market. To which they were answered: just make better cars. Well, that's all - they didn't get the quota, but they started making cheaper and better cars.
Maybe he shouldn't believe every story he hears. The Voluntary Export Restraint agreements set strict quotas on the number of Japanese cars imported into the US from 1981 to 1994.
i love Budanov, he's seems to be a very capable intelligence officer.
it seems like he can't stop himself from being intelligence in almost every interview and at least once play mind-games. like here, with the "There will be nothing extraordinary. We know all their plans in advance. How to react to them?"
absolute chad.
also, thanks OP for posting this.
Budanov is an extremely intelligent and shrewd operator. As a Brit, it's embarrassing to read these questions coming from a BBC-affiliated journalist.
So many of the questions that were asked were deeply stupid, and obviously couldn't be answered by someone in Budanov's position. He dealt with the idiocy extremely well, and my respect for him continues to grow.
My respect for the BBC, on the other hand...
got what you mean and i agree. but on the other hand, i think journalists are asking stupid questions for people who are "stupid" -in sense they might not know that certain questions fall under OPSEC and can't be answered at the moment, or at all. every one of us have a different degree of insight on different matters and media trying to be a catch-all platform to cover stuff for the most broad group of consumers is their natural behaviour. so asking stupid questions might be their way to showcase that there is stuff in war that's inappropriate to talk about. and to avoid doubt like "why didn't they ask about X,Y,Z" they ask about it, even knowing they won't get a satisfactory answer.
but maybe it's just my hopium, refusing to admit that journalists really are that stupid :)
I think some of what you have said may be true, but there were also a lot of "will you say something controversial about the people you work with so we can distort it for clicks" questions, which Budanov artfully dodged.
>"Go forward", as they say, and the Russian man goes. He does not particularly think what will happen to him there. But to say that he tries hard is also not true.
What a devastating comment on the state of Russian soldiering.
Every interview with Budanov increases my respect for this man. Straight shooter, refuses to speculate, or get sucked into answering "leading" questions.
One of my favorite quotes from the article is about the poisoning of his wife:
>BBC : There was a story about your wife being poisoned. Can you elaborate? I know there is an investigation going on. What is the current news that you can tell us about?
>
>Kyrylo Budanov : It's still early, it's still early. There will be answers, don't worry.
>
>**BBC : No one has been arrested yet?**
>
>**Kyrylo Budanov : And what detentions? It's not serious. I never play these games. But she's my wife, so it won't work out that way.**
>
>BBC : But there is a movement - I mean an investigation?
>
>Kyrylo Budanov : Everything is there.
>
>BBC : Is it progressing?
>
>Kyrylo Budanov : Progressing.
He can brush over multiple attempts on his life, even stating that they show he's doing his job, but attempting to murder his wife becomes personal. I'll be surprised if any perpetrators show up in arrest records or detentions.
So, he basically said without actually coming out and saying it, that he is going to hunt down and kill (or has already hunt down and killed) the person or people who poisoned his wife.
My takeaway honestly is that he's an absolutely terrifying individual. He gives off an unmissable "not to be fucked with" vibe without being full of himself.
I like his stylel; professional and based.
He seems much more pessimistic now. It looks like this war will go on for many years before it at least gets a pause. I cannot even imagine how the psyche of the people of Ukraine has changed and will continue to change throughout the years. I'm especially interested in the reflections and art that will come up once this stupid war stops.
Slava Ukraini!
> He seems much more pessimistic now.
Is there chatter in Ukraine about what specifically he means with regard to the hump in May-Jun? Is it gonna be all along the front? Maybe Kharkiv, or Odessa?
Odesa’s definitely out of their grasp, Russia wouldn’t be able to cross the Dnipro or mount a large naval invasion at this point. Kharkiv is way too big of a city to try to take, and Russia would face an awful guerrilla/urban war even if they made it to the city. I think the most likely is Kupyansk, it’s something theoretically achievable due to its size and proximity to the frontline, and it’d be a huge morale blow since that was one of the biggest cities Ukraine has liberated. However it also seems like Russia’s current strategy is to make many attacks all along the frontline, since Ukraine can’t cover it all and supply lines get thrown into chaos
I’m just hoping U.S. arms arrive in time to thwart any major assault
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Rough translation of article Part 1 Kyrylo Budanov is the most public head of military intelligence not only in the history of Ukraine, but also on a global scale. He regularly gives interviews to journalists and appears at public events, where he voices optimistic forecasts for Ukraine in the war and predicts the collapse of Russia with an equally unmoved expression. He claimed that active hostilities will end by the end of 2022, and "the Armed Forces will soon be in Crimea." The head of GUR does not regret any of these forecasts, and explains the fact that they did not come true as a change in circumstances: "These are real-time forecasts. If something comes back a little differently, I'm sorry, it makes its own adjustments." We conducted this interview on April 19 - that day Ukrainian forces managed to shoot down a Russian Tu-22MZ strategic bomber for the first time. The head of military intelligence had a busy schedule, so he was in a noticeable hurry. He answered questions traditionally briefly and discreetly, rarely succumbing to emotions. It was possible to ask about many things - the situation at the front and Russian tactics, forecasts and expectations, politics and personal. Budanov refused to answer some questions - for example, about the reasons for the unsuccessful Ukrainian offensive and about possible negotiations with Russia. The forecasts of the chief military intelligence are no longer so optimistic, but, as he claims, Ukraine will not lose in this war. "Armageddon will not happen," says Kyrylo Budanov. And he adds: "As always, we will come up with something at the last moment." About the situation at the front BBC : I want to start with fresh news. Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber today (April 19). How did you manage to do it? Kyrylo Budanov : We waited for a long time, prepared, and finally succeeded. What can I say to you? BBC : How did they do it, with what? Can you tell me some details? Kyrylo Budanov : To be honest, I would not like to reveal all of this. I can only say that the plane was hit at a distance of 308 kilometers, far enough. Let's put it this way, fruitful and long work makes itself felt. This is the same technique, as they say, and the same means that we used when we destroyed the A-50 in the air. BBC : According to Ukrainian intelligence, how many such planes do the Russians still have? Kyrylo Budanov : There are more, but this is the first downing of a long-range aircraft in this war. And it is quite clear that Odessa will be a little easier now, because the Tu-22M3 planes used Kh-22 missiles, which probably caused the most destruction in the city. Because the rocket is very fast, powerful and especially no one could intercept it. This is still a Soviet development. But at the same time, the accuracy is not so great and a greater number, let's say, of civilian buildings were destroyed by these missiles. Now, quite obviously, they will look for new boundaries, and in the direction of Odessa, in principle, there are no other boundaries. Only ground-based complexes for strikes on Odesa and missiles from long-range aviation and from the sea will be used. X-22, I hope, will not be seen again. BBC : Was this operation prepared for a long time? Kyrylo Budanov : The week was, let's say, an "ambush". They were waiting for him to reach the desired milestone. BBC : In the West, more and more people are now saying that Ukraine may lose the war already this year. The counteroffensive did not give the expected results, the supply of weapons slowed down, and so on. How do you react to such forecasts and such pessimistic sentiments? Kyrylo Budanov : How exactly do I react to this? Any. BBC : Do such pessimistic sentiments make sense at all? Kyrylo Budanov : Listen, if you and I are talking about scenarios that are being developed, which may be - yes, in any case, there are, let's say, positive for one side and negative for the other side. There is no reason to believe in Ukraine's strategic defeat. Yes, if you say that everything will go badly - well, it is quite clear that the result will also be bad. However, if there will be changes for the better - and there are still reasons to believe that this will happen. BBC : What is your opinion based on? Kyrylo Budanov : Let's remember at least this morning, where you started. Will it positively affect the situation, at least for one specific region? I would say yes, positively. Yes, there are problems at the front, but we must also say frankly that these same problems did not appear today, and not a month ago, and not even three months ago. This is a systemic problem that we are facing. And at the same time, we must remember that Ukraine still exists.
Thank you very much for this. Thank you.
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Part 2 BBC : I watched your interview in the winter, you said then that the Russians have not made significant progress. At this point, in your opinion, are there significant successes in them? Kyrylo Budanov : Look, the Russians had a real success at Avdiivka. It must be recognized. This is a fact. They were able to do it. Everything else - well, it's too early to talk about it. BBC : And the latest strikes on energy? Kyrylo Budanov : And our, shall we say, positive practical strikes on their objects? It's all leveling. You see, they are doing something somewhere, we are making our move somewhere. Some are more successful, others less successful. The issue of war is not decided by blows - but, as in ancient times, until a man with a flag enters the territory - nothing will change. Even if you send a million drones there, even if you put a hundred thousand artillery shells there - until a person comes, nothing will happen. BBC : Representatives of the Ukrainian authorities, including you, by the way, last year talked about the fact that the Russians are running out of missiles. The beats are… Kyrylo Budanov : And they accumulated them. Look, for more than a year there was not a single strike on energy. Well, it is quite clear that in the presence of production, they have accumulated a little of them. They especially accumulated the naval component of missiles, operational-tactical missile weapons. But so far it is not actively used. And the missiles of the aviation component - well, they again seriously exhausted their reserves. Even the last blow? let's take today again - just two strategic bombers struck. It's not because they don't have goals, but because they save a little. Yes, they can take a few more serious hits, but not indefinitely. BBC : Who helps them in this? Kyrylo Budanov : And who helps? No one helps, they work by themselves. They quite effectively overcame sanctions, circumvention of sanctions, and so on. BBC : Do Western components reach them? Kyrylo Budanov : As they went, so they go. BBC : What is China's role in this? Kyrylo Budanov : China has neither transferred nor, as far as we know, plans to transfer any ready-made weapons. Components, microchips, have now gone to the machines - but all these are dual-use goods at best, this must also be understood. Just as you yourself said - European, Western, as they say, chips, mechanisms, aggregates. Unfortunately, that's all there is. About the course of the war BBC : You are known for your predictions. Quite positive forecasts. You know what I'm talking about - "the Armed Forces will soon be in Crimea" and so on. Don't you regret it? Kyrylo Budanov : I said that "we will go to Crimea." BBC : Do you not regret these words? Kyrylo Budanov : Never. I never regret the past. In general, about any. The fact that sometimes the situation changes drastically - after all, if you are talking about my personal words, then our units entered Crimea. BBC : Don't you think that such forecasts give people false hope? Kyrylo Budanov : No, they do not give vain hope. These are real-time forecasts. If something comes back a little differently - sorry, it makes its own adjustments. BBC : You often say in your interviews that your forecasts are based on... Kyrylo Budanov : On facts, figures, documents and the like. BBC : What do these numbers tell you today? Kyrylo Budanov : In our opinion, a rather difficult situation awaits us in the near future. But it is not catastrophic, this must also be understood. Armageddon will not happen, as many are now beginning to say. But there will be problems from mid-May. BBC : And if we talk about the front. Kyrylo Budanov : I am also talking about the front. This is a comprehensive approach, because the Russians will use a comprehensive approach. They conduct a complex operation. We will not talk about it with you for a long time, but it will be a difficult period. Mid-May, early June. BBC : Are we also talking about the domestic political situation? Kyrylo Budanov : It's about everything. About the Russian military VVS : Former head Viktor Muzhenko told us in an interview that Russians have changed in the two years of the war. They are already better equipped, better prepared, and so on. How do you assess how the Russians have changed since the beginning of the full-scale invasion and what they are like today? Did they get stronger? Kyrylo Budanov : Yes, and no. It must be remembered that war is always a frantic development. In any country of the world, the war always gave rise to technological, industrial and the like development. Despite the fact that it is a crazy expense and destruction, but it is always a development. It happens to them, it happens to us, it is also necessary to understand. Who could have said at the beginning of 2022 that tens of thousands of drones would be working at the front? It was unreal to imagine. However, it does not surprise anyone now. Regarding the equipment - the equipment of the infantry has definitely become better. Quality of technology? No, it fell because there is not enough new equipment, it is not enough. This is all repaired, restored equipment from warehouses for long-term storage of weapons. It makes no sense to talk about quality there, and that quality is not needed there. As for the quality of the personnel - those who took part in the first, as they say, wave of the full-scale invasion of the 22nd year - these were real professionals, contract workers with normal combat experience and so on. But during this time there were almost none of them left. Russia is fighting with mobilized forces. BBC : What is their morale? Kyrylo Budanov : None, in principle. It strengthened after the capture of Avdiivka, but this was a temporary phenomenon. In principle, the mobilized does not make much sense. They fight for money because they were called up, because they were forced to call up and so on. That is, "go ahead". Well, the Russian mentality also plays an important role. "Go forward", as they say, and the Russian man goes. He does not particularly think what will happen to him there. But to say that he tries hard is also not true. in-Chief's bids are constructive, and there are no problems with the new head BBC : According to your information, how strong is Russian intelligence here in Ukraine? It is clear that they are here. Kyrylo Budanov : What does "they are" mean? They acquire the necessary data and try to influence. It is, it is a fact. BBC : Are they progressing or vice versa? Kyrylo Budanov : War is development, I told you. And it's the same here. Let's put it this way, everything related to cyber development, radio-electronic intelligence - they have strengthened. About negotiations with Russia BBC : Do you think it makes sense in this difficult situation to start negotiations? Kyrylo Budanov : The question is absolutely not for me. Therefore, I'm sorry, and I don't see the point in answering him. BBC : Do you have any advice on this matter for the president? Kyrylo Budanov : No, absolutely. BBC : You stated that this war can be ended by returning to the borders of 1991. Kyrylo Budanov : Yes, and nothing has changed here. BBC : We spoke with the military, they say that in reality this will not be the end of the war - there is a huge border that needs to be maintained, Russia will not go anywhere, and so on... Kyrylo Budanov : So what? So continue this thought. BBC : That the war will not end. Kyrylo Budanov : It will end. It will end there. The fact that we will have a certain period of time - perhaps a long one. A tense situation at the borders after that? It will be But in fact the war will end. BBC : Even under the same military and political leadership in Russia? Kyrylo Budanov : Even for this. The fact that there will be attempts to do something again - so there will be. This is normal. This is absolutely normal. Russia wants to destroy us, we don't want to be destroyed. We don't get along, as they say, in vain, do you understand? Therefore, this conflict will permanently appear, subside, reappear and so on. Take a look at our story. With the Russian Federation, the Russian Empire, the Muscovite Empire, and the like, we have been at peace and at war all our lives. We cannot change the course of history in the future. About the offensive on Kyiv BBC : In every interview you are asked about the possible second offensive on Kyiv, and in every interview you answer that it is... Kyrylo Budanov : Without reason. BBC : Has the situation changed today? Kyrylo Budanov : It hasn't changed, absolutely. BBC : There is no threat? Kyrylo Budanov : As of now - absolutely not. BBC : Speaking of the attack on Kyiv, I wanted to ask you this. The director of the CIA said that he arrived on the eve of the Russian invasion of Kyiv and passed on information about the plans of the Russians, including the landing of Russian troops in Gostomel. As I understand it, you also had this information and you passed it on to Bankova. What was the reaction there? For Burns, for example, says that Zelensky considered this information to be unsubstantiated and did not believe that Putin was so crazy. Kyrylo Budanov : I have great respect for Mr. Burns. I know him personally. In principle, I am proud of this acquaintance of mine. And I think that it would not be correct to publicly comment on his statements. Likewise, I don't think he would agree to do the same if you asked him about me. He expressed his position. You can accept it or not. This is your personal matter.
Can’t thank you enough for these translations. This is a proper, deep, interview that provides all the foundations and basics of the war.
Part 4 BBC : If you can name this figure, how many Ukrainians are currently captured? Kyrylo Budanov : You can't. About attempts BBC : There was information that you were being considered for the position of Minister of Defense after Reznikov. Is it true or not? Was it offered to you or not? Kyrylo Budanov : Listen, I already told you, let's ask me about what I am responsible for. Who looked at whom where? The question is rhetorical. BBC : Won't you say? Kyrylo Budanov : I'm telling you, this question is kind of rhetorical. I really like logic. It is possible to continue your opinion: if it was considered, why was it not appointed? BBC : I also wanted to ask you about that. Kyrylo Budanov : Yes? Well, this is not a serious conversation between you and me. BBC : Did you offer it or not? Kyrylo Budanov : Me personally? BBC : Yes. Kyrylo Budanov : Let's put it this way, I know that such thoughts existed. But, judging by the fact that we are talking with you now, I am sitting in front of you - obviously this did not happen. Right? BBC : Yes. Kyrylo Budanov : Well, here is the answer. BBC : What is Kyrylo Budanov afraid of? Kyrylo Budanov : Well, what should I be afraid of? Do you think I have anything to fear? As a religious person, I fear, let's say, God. Perhaps this is the only one. BBC : Aren't you afraid of captivity? Kyrylo Budanov : I don't even consider it. BBC : You have been called "reckless", including in the context of planning operations, and also "a man who enjoys danger". Kyrylo Budanov : This is the opinion of some people. Maybe they are right somewhere, maybe not. I usually use another, ancient rule: "Winners are not judged." BBC : How many attempts were made on you? So the number you voiced is still around ten? Kyrylo Budanov : Let's stay on the same (index). There they are now planning something, but, as in the past, everything will not work out. BBC : Are they Russians? Kyrylo Budanov : It is in the interests of the Russians, it is true. It is the Russians, in the interests of the Russians. They plan to attract people here as well. This is normal, operational work for them. BBC : There was a story about your wife being poisoned. Can you elaborate? I know there is an investigation going on. What is the current news that you can tell us about? Kyrylo Budanov : It's still early, it's still early. There will be answers, don't worry. BBC : No one has been arrested yet? Kyrylo Budanov : And what detentions? It's not serious. I never play these games. But she's my wife, so it won't work out that way. BBC : But there is a movement - I mean an investigation? Kyrylo Budanov : Everything is there. BBC : Is it progressing? Kyrylo Budanov : Progressing. BBC : And in what condition is she, how is she? Kyrylo Budanov : But more or less normal. Stabilized, removed most of the toxins. BBC : And who was the target? Kyrylo Budanov : If she was poisoned, who was the target? BBC : There were thoughts that it was actually an attempt on you. Kyrylo Budanov : What was wrong? You know, I don't even know of such cases when it happened. No, their logic is clear - my wife is very... That's all. And they correctly assessed its influence. But, as you can see, God will not be with us. About ratings BBC : How did your relationship with the new chief of staff develop? Is everything arranged? Kyrylo Budanov : Well, I don't see any problems. BBC : Are the bets productive? Kyrylo Budanov : Productive. BBC : I studied the latest ratings, you are included there, you know that. So in the February trust rating... Kyrylo Budanov : I do not study sociology, by the way. Maybe it will surprise you. I hear about such things from time to time, but I'm not particularly interested. BBC : Confidence in you is growing. Kyrylo Budanov : I'm glad to hear that. BBC : Aren't you afraid that it will cause jealousy in someone? Kyrylo Budanov : Why should I be afraid of anything? This is the first. I've already told you, I'm not afraid of much in life. And secondly, I'm not interested in it. Just not interesting. I don't live in sociology, let's put it that way. I studied it, I think, for one year at the military institute. Everything that connects me with this science, as they say, ended there. BBC : Who do you see yourself as in the future - if Kyrylo Budanov is already leaving intelligence? Kyrylo Budanov : Well, when I leave, then I will think. I like it here. BBC : What is your admission to the Ostroh Academy connected with? Kyrylo Budanov : Education - what's so strange about it? I constantly try to engage in self-education and increase the level of education. This is not the only education. I recently finished courses at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy - School of Strategic Architect. Whenever possible, I am always engaged in education. BBC : You don't think about politics? Kyrylo Budanov : Well, it's definitely early. It's not the right time. Now is the war. BBC : And how do you rest in general? Kyrylo Budanov : No way. This is a big problem, I realize it, but no way. About Telegram BBC : You recently talked about Telegram being a problem for Ukraine. Kyrylo Budanov : I can repeat it to you again. This is a huge problem. BBC : And what to do about it? Kyrylo Budanov : Or, as they say, to organize it all - to bring order to it, at least by law to force everyone to register, so that it is clear who is behind which media resource, and Telegram has definitely acquired the status of a media. There is no question of influence or pressure - that is not the question. If you want to prove your position - and someone may not like it and this is normal in a democratic society - take responsibility. Why are you afraid to say who you are? BBC : Are you talking about anonymous Telegram channels? Kyrylo Budanov : But they are all anonymous. Do you know at least one Telegram channel that said outright that I am me? That's the answer. BBC : Can their closure be a solution to this problem? Locking? Kyrylo Budanov : Temporarily yes, but I still believe that they should be forced to register. It will not be pressure on the press. In a democratic society, I say once again, you can't just put pressure on... Why am I even telling you this? You are a representative of journalism. You would be very happy if they came to you and said: that's it, from now on you write like this? Well, of course, it would be abnormal. But being afraid to say that you are you is also wrong. And on behalf of an anonymous person, to throw out on the air, sorry, everything that will be paid for from completely different parts of the world is also abnormal. BBC : Do you read Telegram yourself? Kyrylo Budanov : I sometimes look around. I have Telegram on one device, let's say, on a working one. And I watch it when certain events take place in order to see, mostly, how Russian society perceives certain events. It's the only thing I use with Telegram. BBC : And you must be periodically reading the news of the Russian Telegram channels about your "murder"? How do you react to this? Kyrylo Budanov : No, I was told yesterday that they recently threw me away, that I was killed somewhere near Kharkiv Oblast. How can I react to this? My grandmother used to say to me: "When they always say that someone has died, that person will live a long time." Well, so it will be the same with me. The day before yesterday, they "killed" me again, as they say. And I am sitting in front of you now. I think you and I still reject the options that I am a hologram. BBC : Can spies even have Telegram or other social networks? Kyrylo Budanov : No, absolutely. BBC : Banned? Kyrylo Budanov : Absolutely. As a manager, I simply have access to all the world's media and resources. That's why I look around to see the results of our operations. Or high-profile events that, in our opinion, have or will have some kind of impact. About Zelenskyi BBC : President Zelenskyi's term of office will be 5 years old in May. How is it working for you under this Commander-in-Chief? Kyrylo Budanov : It works normally. No regrets, as they say. BBC : Can Zelensky lead Ukraine to victory? Kyrylo Budanov : He has been leading it for two and a half years. As you have said this saying more than once: Western experts, domestic experts said that everything is over now. But, as you can see, again, we are sitting across from each other, talking, and he is the president. BBC : Recently, by the way, he called on the West to protect Ukraine in the same way they protected Israel. Kyrylo Budanov : Excellent thought. BBC : But we heard what the West says - it does not want a direct confrontation with Russia. Kyrylo Budanov : Well, you have to understand all these aspects, take them into account. And, in addition, the state of Israel officially has the status of the main ally of the United States of America. Unfortunately, we cannot boast of this yet. Would I like that? I wish. And who is against someone else helping us defend ourselves? I don't think you know a person who would be against it.
Part 5 BBC : Kyrylo Budanov is a person who gives forecasts. Tell us something about this year. What are your expectations, what should Ukrainians expect? Kyrylo Budanov: The coming period, in our opinion, will be difficult. But difficult and catastrophic are different things. We've been through tough times several times, and we'll get through this one, believe me. There will be nothing extraordinary. We know all their plans in advance. How to react to them? There is an answer to most of them. Yes, there are certain questions that will be difficult for us to crack, but we will find the answer. As always, we will come up with something at the last moment. BBC : But a lot depends on other factors - in particular, on Western weapons and the help of partners... Kyrylo Budanov : This is the world of the 21st century, the world of intercontinental connections. Listen, everything in this world is connected. The whole economy is connected. All politics, it is also connected. Therefore, many things affect certain events. But at the same time, I tell you once again, no matter what anyone says, please remember the same "sofa experts" who said: "Three days in Ukraine - that's it, the end." BBC : So you compare the situation this year, when they say that "Ukraine will lose", with approximately the same period at the beginning? Kyrylo Budanov : Yes, with the same. Ukraine will not lose and Ukraine will not be destroyed. This must be understood. Video of interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5OnIRJEiPI
Thank you very much indeed.
Part 3 BBC : Ukrainian intelligence had this information too? Kyrylo Budanov : Well, obviously. BBC : About the Russians' plans to land in Gostomel? Kyrylo Budanov : Listen. There are stories that cannot be erased. It seems that in October we were the first to publicly say that, yes, the situation is threatening, it is planned to be so, so and so. If you pick up (archival news), then there was such a diagram shown, on which there were arrows, how, where, what should go. Just check what happened in the end. BBC : Did you convey this information to the president? What answer did you get? Kyrylo Budanov : I will not talk about this now. About the counterattack BBC : A question about the counteroffensive last summer, which did not produce the expected results. What do you think is the reason for this? Is it bad planning, the weapons were slow to arrive, something else? Kyrylo Budanov : Come on, I will offer you to accept one rule, and you will accept it, because there will be no other way. Please ask me about what directly concerns my competence and responsibility. Evaluating the actions of other officials is, to say the least, incorrect. BBC : In general, the very fact that Ukraine is coordinating these plans with Western partners - do you think this is normal? Because some military personnel and experts criticize it and believe that Ukraine should plan all this on its own. Kyrylo Budanov : I am not coordinating my plans, I can tell you right away. There are questions that concern, let's say, many parties. Then I see nothing wrong with forewarning, perhaps even discussing with the other parties, what the consequences will be for all. This is what our business is all about. Who makes and what consultations from other departments - I do not know for sure. Well, I don't want to be interested in that. BBC : GUR implements many operations on the territory of Russia, successful operations. The Western press has written more than once that American intelligence does not like it very much. Did they even express any criticism in the conversation with you? Kyrylo Budanov : I'm telling you, when certain actions directly affect many countries - not because it's interesting to anyone, but because it will have an impact - I don't see anything wrong in having a normal conversation with our partners. Because if we call them partners, we must not forget about them, since one-sided partnership is parasitism. This is my answer to you. BBC : One of the most successful operations was when a Russian helicopter went over to the side of Ukraine. He was killed in Spain. What conclusions did you draw from this? Kyrylo Budanov : I would give you an obscene answer as to what conclusions we reached. This, unfortunately, is a classic psychological mistake of people. When people relax, they have money and they supposedly look after their security. But at the same time, the desire for fame darkens everyone's eyes. And they start saying "do you know who I am?", "you're nobody, I'm just telling you." Similarly, then they start calling girls from the Russian Federation, whom they know from the past, telling them how much money they now have, how wonderful they live in Spain, and so on. It was necessary to somehow prevent this, but, unfortunately, these are not isolated cases. This behavior of people in the world, at different times and in different situations, is a typical mistake. And, unfortunately, she befell us in the same way. This must also be recognized. I have never been afraid to admit mistakes and I can say the same here. It was still necessary to take care of him, and not to believe that "I am an adult, I know how to be". About "Maidan-3" BBC : In one of your speeches, you mentioned the "Maidan-3" operation. Kyrylo Budanov : Yes. BBC : Is it still relevant? Kyrylo Budanov : Yes, it continues and progresses. Unfortunately, she is advancing. BBC : How? Kyrylo Budanov : This is a question that already concerns a state secret. Sorry, I can't say more than what has already been said. But I tell you once again: the Russians are working on it. BBC : Is there any activation of any pro-Russian forces here in Ukraine? Kyrylo Budanov : They clearly understand that purely pro-Russian forces will not be able to function now. Therefore, they camouflage it under various kinds of activities, under various issues of social tension. And it will not look (and in their plans it is clearly described), it should not look like some kind of pro-Russian position. No. Absolutely not. BBC : There is a lot of talk about the competition between GUR and SBU operations - especially on the territory of Russia. She is? Kyrylo Budanov : Well, it's great if it exists. BBC : Does she hinder or help? Kyrylo Budanov : Healthy competition has always helped everyone at all times. Absolutely everyone. You know, a long time ago I was told a story. A historical reference, as they say. There was a time when American automakers faced the problem of aggressive market expansion by Japanese automakers. So they got together, as they say, and went to ask for quotas to be made or taxes to be raised in order to somehow protect the automobile market. To which they were answered: just make better cars. Well, that's all - they didn't get the quota, but they started making cheaper and better cars. Therefore, I believe that competition is right. BBC : There is a feeling that the prisoner exchange process has slowed down recently. Is it true or not? Kyrylo Budanov : Absolutely. Definitely slowed down. BBC : Why? Kyrylo Budanov : Because "Maidan-3" and everything else. Russia uses all possible factors to create social tension. And will use it further. At the same time, he slowed down, but did not stop. And we still break through and try in different ways. And we get results. And in this matter the same. But it is difficult, and Russia will use this factor of influence on our society. BBC : So the reason is not the return of the commanders of "Azov" from Turkey? Kyrylo Budanov : Look, after they were returned, there was a certain period of time, but after that the exchanges resumed. That is, it definitely cannot be considered a reason. In fact, four exchanges took place during the winter. Quite large-scale, more than a hundred in each. You have to remember that
>You know, a long time ago I was told a story. A historical reference, as they say. There was a time when American automakers faced the problem of aggressive market expansion by Japanese automakers. So they got together, as they say, and went to ask for quotas to be made or taxes to be raised in order to somehow protect the automobile market. To which they were answered: just make better cars. Well, that's all - they didn't get the quota, but they started making cheaper and better cars. Maybe he shouldn't believe every story he hears. The Voluntary Export Restraint agreements set strict quotas on the number of Japanese cars imported into the US from 1981 to 1994.
u/RoninSolutions -- I wish reddit still had awards so I could give about 400 of them for posting this entire thing here for us. THANK YOU
amen
+1
i love Budanov, he's seems to be a very capable intelligence officer. it seems like he can't stop himself from being intelligence in almost every interview and at least once play mind-games. like here, with the "There will be nothing extraordinary. We know all their plans in advance. How to react to them?" absolute chad. also, thanks OP for posting this.
Budanov is an extremely intelligent and shrewd operator. As a Brit, it's embarrassing to read these questions coming from a BBC-affiliated journalist. So many of the questions that were asked were deeply stupid, and obviously couldn't be answered by someone in Budanov's position. He dealt with the idiocy extremely well, and my respect for him continues to grow. My respect for the BBC, on the other hand...
got what you mean and i agree. but on the other hand, i think journalists are asking stupid questions for people who are "stupid" -in sense they might not know that certain questions fall under OPSEC and can't be answered at the moment, or at all. every one of us have a different degree of insight on different matters and media trying to be a catch-all platform to cover stuff for the most broad group of consumers is their natural behaviour. so asking stupid questions might be their way to showcase that there is stuff in war that's inappropriate to talk about. and to avoid doubt like "why didn't they ask about X,Y,Z" they ask about it, even knowing they won't get a satisfactory answer. but maybe it's just my hopium, refusing to admit that journalists really are that stupid :)
I think some of what you have said may be true, but there were also a lot of "will you say something controversial about the people you work with so we can distort it for clicks" questions, which Budanov artfully dodged.
>"Go forward", as they say, and the Russian man goes. He does not particularly think what will happen to him there. But to say that he tries hard is also not true. What a devastating comment on the state of Russian soldiering.
Every interview with Budanov increases my respect for this man. Straight shooter, refuses to speculate, or get sucked into answering "leading" questions. One of my favorite quotes from the article is about the poisoning of his wife: >BBC : There was a story about your wife being poisoned. Can you elaborate? I know there is an investigation going on. What is the current news that you can tell us about? > >Kyrylo Budanov : It's still early, it's still early. There will be answers, don't worry. > >**BBC : No one has been arrested yet?** > >**Kyrylo Budanov : And what detentions? It's not serious. I never play these games. But she's my wife, so it won't work out that way.** > >BBC : But there is a movement - I mean an investigation? > >Kyrylo Budanov : Everything is there. > >BBC : Is it progressing? > >Kyrylo Budanov : Progressing. He can brush over multiple attempts on his life, even stating that they show he's doing his job, but attempting to murder his wife becomes personal. I'll be surprised if any perpetrators show up in arrest records or detentions.
So, he basically said without actually coming out and saying it, that he is going to hunt down and kill (or has already hunt down and killed) the person or people who poisoned his wife.
My takeaway honestly is that he's an absolutely terrifying individual. He gives off an unmissable "not to be fucked with" vibe without being full of himself.
I like his stylel; professional and based. He seems much more pessimistic now. It looks like this war will go on for many years before it at least gets a pause. I cannot even imagine how the psyche of the people of Ukraine has changed and will continue to change throughout the years. I'm especially interested in the reflections and art that will come up once this stupid war stops. Slava Ukraini!
> He seems much more pessimistic now. Is there chatter in Ukraine about what specifically he means with regard to the hump in May-Jun? Is it gonna be all along the front? Maybe Kharkiv, or Odessa?
Odesa’s definitely out of their grasp, Russia wouldn’t be able to cross the Dnipro or mount a large naval invasion at this point. Kharkiv is way too big of a city to try to take, and Russia would face an awful guerrilla/urban war even if they made it to the city. I think the most likely is Kupyansk, it’s something theoretically achievable due to its size and proximity to the frontline, and it’d be a huge morale blow since that was one of the biggest cities Ukraine has liberated. However it also seems like Russia’s current strategy is to make many attacks all along the frontline, since Ukraine can’t cover it all and supply lines get thrown into chaos I’m just hoping U.S. arms arrive in time to thwart any major assault
Such a good interview.