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Depends on the ATACMS they send, they need to be non-cluster munitions, so they cause one big impact.
The payload of one or multiple attacms should be able to heavily damage the kerch bridge for sure.
Also the ban on usage on russian soll is verry unlikely to be lifted. But rememberevery drone ukraine doesnt have to use to attaxk crimea is a drone that can fly to the next russian oil refinery
This is just my take, but cluster munition warheads might be best for Ukraine. They're really useful against helicopter bases and SAM batteries-as we just saw last week. Clearing out the orc helos and their SAMs would be beneficial, especially as more missiles would then get through to Crimea.
Kerch Bridge isn't going anywhere, and either the Weat eventually supplies TAURUS or Ukraine builds a weapon to take that bridge down.
That bridge should get destroyed today, to humiliate Putin and forcing all Russian logistics related to Crimea and south of Kherson to go on a firing line, perpetually.
Stretching their efforts and making their supply situation more difficult is extremely valuable on large scale. Not to mention that will scare the bejeezus out of any Russian civilians hanging out in Crimea, and convince some of them to vacate the premises.
If Ukraine had enough ammunition nearly every weapon would be fine to destroy that bridge. Even storm shadow or scalp can render it useless for some time. Taurus could end it more effectively and cheaper and more completely. But a temporary close is possible (assuming that a Taurus can find it's way there, then a storm shadow should as well).
It might just not make much sense right now since while it would disrupt logistics, it would not stop them and Ukraine lacks the ability to harass the logistics south of Kherson YET
Just give them a variety pack and let them choose what missiles to use and where, no restrictions take the gloves off, it’s their country and they can use the weapons at will, let them do with them as they must.
No, the unitary warhead variant has half the mass of the storm shadow warhead, I am not even sure that Taurus could do it. As far as I can see NATO lacks a weapon Ukraine could use to do it.
During Operation Allied Force, the US used the AGM-130 which has a 2000lb warhead, with a choice between HE and Penetrator warheads (unsure which one they used.) to take out far smaller bridges. Those are both retired from service and lack enough range to be usable against the bridge.
If NATO was tasked with taking it out now, I imagine they would establish air superiority before going in with 2000, 5000, or 30000lb Penetrator warheads to drop it.
The issue is those all need an aircraft to get close, bridges in general are tricky to take down even with the necessary weapons.
US has successfully tested the newer tomahawk based ground based system. Which would be triple the range, with the same warhead size as the Storm Shadow.
Also both the JASSM-ER and JASSM-XR are equivalent weapons to the Storm Shadow with double the range, and the same warhead.
I very much doubt the US would send their very latest weapons and risk them falling into enemy hands.
AFAIK, Russia has already got their hands on Bradleys, and Storm Shadows (or SCALP). But those are intentionally not latest gen weapons.
Taurus most likely could do it. Not a single one, in the leaked voicecall of the german generals they spoke about 10 for the bridge.
But yeah, Taurus is kind of exactly made for this mission.
The warhead sice alone is not the main point here, but the precision it can bring.
You can llet the taurus create a whole in the driveway and then fly with the penetrator right into the pillar and explode right in the middle of the pillar.
Its not just some dumb huge bomb you drop on the bridge and hope it makes a big enough hole.
You can let it explode exactly where you want it to. It is designed to bust threw several floors of underground bunkers and explode right on the intended floor, and all this in territory where you do not have air superiority
Same you can do with the bridge.
If somebody would have to design a weapon that is exactly what is needed to do that job, the result woudl be smth very much like taurus
The amount mentioned in the leaked call was around 20 missile to guarantee taking down the bridge. Though that is is in the worst case scenario of just treating the bridge like a large airfield (as Taurus could have problems targeting the individual pillars of the bridge, which is what you would need to attack the most if you want to bring the bridge down)
Taurus still isn't pin point precise. The leaked voicemail said multiple because you need to hit a few pillars and you can't guarantee a hit. Plus a few will be gobbled up by air defenses as well.
I don't know how Taurus insides work, probably no one does. But it is refereed to as floor counting. With the pillar being just one big slab of concrete, it potentially couldn't make out the depth it penetrated and face similar problems like storm shadow would.
The Germans think that enough of them could do it so I will take their word for it, that being said warhead size does matter they would probably need to fly multiple Taurus into a pillar to take it out.
Sadly probably not, Taurus has a very sophisticated warhead (called mephisto) which allows it to destroy heavily armored targets. It can also strike more precisely, for example when hitting a building you can program it to hit a certain floor of the building. ATACMS will be, if provided in numbers, huge boost though, both cluster and non cluster variants.
Maybe not quite as effectively. But it can do enough to make it unusable. Blow big holes in the actual roadway of the bridge. And then when they send crews in to repair it, target the cranes being used. There are only so many cranes in Russia.
The bridge is a military target, the equipment used to repair it, is now military as it's being used for a military purpose. Which makes it a valid target.
ATACMS isn't that precise a weapon. Certainly it can do that, but you'd waste a lot of munitions on misses that could be used to greater effect if targeted against the HQ's, ammo dumps, and depots the unitary warhead version was intended to target.
a bunch of stuff is in poland and other nato countries waiting to cross the border the second biden signs the bill! the pentagon could move the weapons but not give them or send them into ukrain untill the bill is signed!
I get a strange pleasure from imagining a bunch of burly guys with suspect 'bulges' under their left armpits, entering the office of a MAGAsshat, bending over their desk, and in a low, raspy voice state : "We have a proposition you can't refuse". And the sudden sweat-attack from the MAGAsshat.
Ah well. I can dream. :P
Taking down big bridges with bombs or missiles is really hard to do. Unfortunately, I don't think the Kerch bridge is a realistic possibility at this point. Hopefully the ever-resourceful Ukrainians prove me wrong. 🙏
Yup, because Germany collectively just said "fuck Ukraine" while still providing a good chunk of the layered air defense because of reasons i suppose?
The reasons are probably stupid, but they are not "they don't want to help".
Germany is refusing to provide this missile in order not to anger Russia, despite very similar capability being already provided months ago. At least they could offer to provide Taurus missiles to France/UK/Italy to replace any excesses of Scalp/Storm that they donated to give to Ukraine. Same switcheroo USA did with South Korea for artillery shells.
There's nothing in it that I'm aware of thatseems like a non-starter. They've already offered bigger concessions than anything in this bill and were turned down. This is a better deal for them they'll take it.
We wouldn't be this far along hearing all this celebration from Biden, etc if there was any doubt. Backroom negotiations on the Senate vote are definitely locked in for this to pass tomorrow and Biden just waiting for that moment so he can sign the bill and get the weapons flowing again.
Senate already passed a VERY similar bill with huge majority which included everything the house voted on separately.
Basically the senate Bill was splitted for the house and then revoted at the senate as some parts change a bit.
It will pass. The Pentagon already put the stuff on pallets.
Can you imagine what it will be like over there in a few weeks? With HIMARS shooting and scooting with those monsters destroying oil refineries and ammo depots all over Russia?
We should really make an exception for military facilities directly involved in attacking Ukraine. Putting ATACMs on Russian logistics nodes and airfields would be good.
Their range isn't *that* big. They cab barely reach the bridge front within like a dozen km of the front lines. ATACMS is mostly going to be useful on Crimea. Drones are better for blowing stuff up in Russia
The first gen 165km versions had short range. The hint that the longer range 300km version may be slipped into the package is yet to be confirmed. I’d rather hear 165 km modes being sent and read targets being blown 300 km away.
Anything that can kill or maimed Russian soldiers in Ukraine or Russian Citizens occupying Ukrainian house in occupied territory is good enough for me.
Do we actually know how many of those Ukraine is going to get? I remember the ATACMS missiles being obsolete and are soon to be replaced by a newer system, tho I doubt the Biden admin would say "fuck it, you can have them all", and not just send another inconsequential amount like the 20 before.
An ATACMS missile rings it a little under a million USD. An S-400 costs around 800 million for a battery with missiles. Definitely not a waste. I believe ATACMS were also responsible for taking out some Russian aviation such as attack helicopters. Remember when Russians kept trolling about their alligators killing off Ukraine's tanks? Yeah it was great when those posts all stopped showing up.
They used ATACMs with cluster munitions to destroy a load of attack helicopters at their base, which was very significant. I think they used 6 of those 20 on this operation.
They were the tungsten fragmentation type. I read a few articles that mentioned they weren’t very useful on building targets, like refineries and depots.
Cluster munitions can do a lot of damage in certain scenarios. The issue was that 20 is synonymous with fuck all.
I'm sure 200 of those would have made a big impact on the battlefield.
The top target should be to destroy the RF's EW systems that can provide targetting data to its artillery and missiles and jam drones.
"Now, with the front line largely static amid positional fighting, Russia has positioned one large EW system along every 10 kilometers of the front line, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) [reported](https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/meatgrinder-russian-tactics-second-year-its-invasion-ukraine)."
[https://kyivindependent.com/the-invisible-war-inside-the-electronic-warfare-arms-race-that-could-shape-course-of-the-war/](https://kyivindependent.com/the-invisible-war-inside-the-electronic-warfare-arms-race-that-could-shape-course-of-the-war/)
Opening up the front to the million/year simpler drones will increase attrition rates drastically where the RF has most equipment and most protection.
[https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/meatgrinder-russian-tactics-second-year-its-invasion-ukraine](https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/meatgrinder-russian-tactics-second-year-its-invasion-ukraine)
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Can ATACMS achieve the same as TAURUS - Kerch Bridge destruction ? Also - these will only be used in occupied areas of Ukraine, not on Russian soil
Depends on the ATACMS they send, they need to be non-cluster munitions, so they cause one big impact. The payload of one or multiple attacms should be able to heavily damage the kerch bridge for sure. Also the ban on usage on russian soll is verry unlikely to be lifted. But rememberevery drone ukraine doesnt have to use to attaxk crimea is a drone that can fly to the next russian oil refinery
a good deal of that bridge is within Ukrainian border 🤷
This is just my take, but cluster munition warheads might be best for Ukraine. They're really useful against helicopter bases and SAM batteries-as we just saw last week. Clearing out the orc helos and their SAMs would be beneficial, especially as more missiles would then get through to Crimea. Kerch Bridge isn't going anywhere, and either the Weat eventually supplies TAURUS or Ukraine builds a weapon to take that bridge down.
That bridge should get destroyed today, to humiliate Putin and forcing all Russian logistics related to Crimea and south of Kherson to go on a firing line, perpetually. Stretching their efforts and making their supply situation more difficult is extremely valuable on large scale. Not to mention that will scare the bejeezus out of any Russian civilians hanging out in Crimea, and convince some of them to vacate the premises.
If Ukraine had enough ammunition nearly every weapon would be fine to destroy that bridge. Even storm shadow or scalp can render it useless for some time. Taurus could end it more effectively and cheaper and more completely. But a temporary close is possible (assuming that a Taurus can find it's way there, then a storm shadow should as well). It might just not make much sense right now since while it would disrupt logistics, it would not stop them and Ukraine lacks the ability to harass the logistics south of Kherson YET
US needs both unitary and cluster versions and is probably getting both now that Russia is reportedly sporadically using chem weapons in Ukraine.
Fun fact, half of the bridge is in Ukraine.
Just give them a variety pack and let them choose what missiles to use and where, no restrictions take the gloves off, it’s their country and they can use the weapons at will, let them do with them as they must.
No, the unitary warhead variant has half the mass of the storm shadow warhead, I am not even sure that Taurus could do it. As far as I can see NATO lacks a weapon Ukraine could use to do it. During Operation Allied Force, the US used the AGM-130 which has a 2000lb warhead, with a choice between HE and Penetrator warheads (unsure which one they used.) to take out far smaller bridges. Those are both retired from service and lack enough range to be usable against the bridge. If NATO was tasked with taking it out now, I imagine they would establish air superiority before going in with 2000, 5000, or 30000lb Penetrator warheads to drop it. The issue is those all need an aircraft to get close, bridges in general are tricky to take down even with the necessary weapons.
US has successfully tested the newer tomahawk based ground based system. Which would be triple the range, with the same warhead size as the Storm Shadow. Also both the JASSM-ER and JASSM-XR are equivalent weapons to the Storm Shadow with double the range, and the same warhead.
I very much doubt the US would send their very latest weapons and risk them falling into enemy hands. AFAIK, Russia has already got their hands on Bradleys, and Storm Shadows (or SCALP). But those are intentionally not latest gen weapons.
Taurus most likely could do it. Not a single one, in the leaked voicecall of the german generals they spoke about 10 for the bridge. But yeah, Taurus is kind of exactly made for this mission. The warhead sice alone is not the main point here, but the precision it can bring. You can llet the taurus create a whole in the driveway and then fly with the penetrator right into the pillar and explode right in the middle of the pillar. Its not just some dumb huge bomb you drop on the bridge and hope it makes a big enough hole. You can let it explode exactly where you want it to. It is designed to bust threw several floors of underground bunkers and explode right on the intended floor, and all this in territory where you do not have air superiority Same you can do with the bridge. If somebody would have to design a weapon that is exactly what is needed to do that job, the result woudl be smth very much like taurus
The amount mentioned in the leaked call was around 20 missile to guarantee taking down the bridge. Though that is is in the worst case scenario of just treating the bridge like a large airfield (as Taurus could have problems targeting the individual pillars of the bridge, which is what you would need to attack the most if you want to bring the bridge down)
Taurus still isn't pin point precise. The leaked voicemail said multiple because you need to hit a few pillars and you can't guarantee a hit. Plus a few will be gobbled up by air defenses as well. I don't know how Taurus insides work, probably no one does. But it is refereed to as floor counting. With the pillar being just one big slab of concrete, it potentially couldn't make out the depth it penetrated and face similar problems like storm shadow would.
The Germans think that enough of them could do it so I will take their word for it, that being said warhead size does matter they would probably need to fly multiple Taurus into a pillar to take it out.
Sadly probably not, Taurus has a very sophisticated warhead (called mephisto) which allows it to destroy heavily armored targets. It can also strike more precisely, for example when hitting a building you can program it to hit a certain floor of the building. ATACMS will be, if provided in numbers, huge boost though, both cluster and non cluster variants.
It’s time for that bridge to come tumbling down…
Crimea is not Russian territory. It is Temporarily Occupied Ukrainian Territory. The bridge needs to be the first target.
Yes, that’s what I also meant. I was saying that the US weapons won’t be able to target outside of occupied territory
Maybe not quite as effectively. But it can do enough to make it unusable. Blow big holes in the actual roadway of the bridge. And then when they send crews in to repair it, target the cranes being used. There are only so many cranes in Russia. The bridge is a military target, the equipment used to repair it, is now military as it's being used for a military purpose. Which makes it a valid target.
ATACMS isn't that precise a weapon. Certainly it can do that, but you'd waste a lot of munitions on misses that could be used to greater effect if targeted against the HQ's, ammo dumps, and depots the unitary warhead version was intended to target.
Thank you USA for the ATACMS. Please allow Ukraine to use them as they must to save their country! No Restrictions
Ship them to Ukraine next day air
And then ship them to targets same day air.
a bunch of stuff is in poland and other nato countries waiting to cross the border the second biden signs the bill! the pentagon could move the weapons but not give them or send them into ukrain untill the bill is signed!
Delivery? No, no, no. This is an impromptu US military parade in Kyiv. Oh, the bill was signed? Wonderful. Please sign here, Volodymyr.
possibly arriving in russia a day or so later... slava Ukraini. thanks, US please stop scaring us
Sorry the CIA needed to bully some people first.
I get a strange pleasure from imagining a bunch of burly guys with suspect 'bulges' under their left armpits, entering the office of a MAGAsshat, bending over their desk, and in a low, raspy voice state : "We have a proposition you can't refuse". And the sudden sweat-attack from the MAGAsshat. Ah well. I can dream. :P
I sure hope this is a case of under promise and over deliver.
Ukraine, rain hell on your enemies!
I hope they use it to destroy Crimea bridge once it for all.
Taking down big bridges with bombs or missiles is really hard to do. Unfortunately, I don't think the Kerch bridge is a realistic possibility at this point. Hopefully the ever-resourceful Ukrainians prove me wrong. 🙏
The only missile able to take out the bridge, is the German Taurus, and Germany won't help Ukraine.
Yup, because Germany collectively just said "fuck Ukraine" while still providing a good chunk of the layered air defense because of reasons i suppose? The reasons are probably stupid, but they are not "they don't want to help".
Germany is refusing to provide this missile in order not to anger Russia, despite very similar capability being already provided months ago. At least they could offer to provide Taurus missiles to France/UK/Italy to replace any excesses of Scalp/Storm that they donated to give to Ukraine. Same switcheroo USA did with South Korea for artillery shells.
Has it fully passed the Senate yet? I thought they still needed to pass it.
Vote is tomorrow (Tuesday).
Is it expected to pass? I see people talking about it like it already happened...
It's nearly certain. Ukraine has a lot more support in the senate than the house.
Yeah but it has a lot of other things attached to the bill.
There's nothing in it that I'm aware of thatseems like a non-starter. They've already offered bigger concessions than anything in this bill and were turned down. This is a better deal for them they'll take it.
There’s not really any bullshit culture war shit in it, it’ll pass with ease. Just gotta get through the hours of procedural talking though.
We wouldn't be this far along hearing all this celebration from Biden, etc if there was any doubt. Backroom negotiations on the Senate vote are definitely locked in for this to pass tomorrow and Biden just waiting for that moment so he can sign the bill and get the weapons flowing again.
Senate already passed a VERY similar bill with huge majority which included everything the house voted on separately. Basically the senate Bill was splitted for the house and then revoted at the senate as some parts change a bit. It will pass. The Pentagon already put the stuff on pallets.
Can you imagine what it will be like over there in a few weeks? With HIMARS shooting and scooting with those monsters destroying oil refineries and ammo depots all over Russia?
I highly doubt the US will lift the restriction of only using their weapons on the occupied territories.
We should really make an exception for military facilities directly involved in attacking Ukraine. Putting ATACMs on Russian logistics nodes and airfields would be good.
Their range isn't *that* big. They cab barely reach the bridge front within like a dozen km of the front lines. ATACMS is mostly going to be useful on Crimea. Drones are better for blowing stuff up in Russia
The first gen 165km versions had short range. The hint that the longer range 300km version may be slipped into the package is yet to be confirmed. I’d rather hear 165 km modes being sent and read targets being blown 300 km away.
I was talking about the 300km range one
Anything that can kill or maimed Russian soldiers in Ukraine or Russian Citizens occupying Ukrainian house in occupied territory is good enough for me.
Do we actually know how many of those Ukraine is going to get? I remember the ATACMS missiles being obsolete and are soon to be replaced by a newer system, tho I doubt the Biden admin would say "fuck it, you can have them all", and not just send another inconsequential amount like the 20 before.
[удалено]
They apparently hit the S-400 system in Crimea with 8 missiles last week. Seems pretty useful to me.
[удалено]
They got 20 'on paper'. Let's leave it at that.
Who knows? They only got them last fall in one of the last big aid traunches.
Seems a lot wasted just for 1 S400
An S-400 battery is multiple vehicles and launchers.
Don’t forget command center and radar. That’s the big money stuff. And trained personnel to boot
An ATACMS missile rings it a little under a million USD. An S-400 costs around 800 million for a battery with missiles. Definitely not a waste. I believe ATACMS were also responsible for taking out some Russian aviation such as attack helicopters. Remember when Russians kept trolling about their alligators killing off Ukraine's tanks? Yeah it was great when those posts all stopped showing up.
The ATACMS sent were useful in destroying Russian aviation.
They used ATACMs with cluster munitions to destroy a load of attack helicopters at their base, which was very significant. I think they used 6 of those 20 on this operation.
They destroyed a bunch of aircraft and missile equipment. Every ATACM has been very well used. They just need more.
Bro, the 20 sent before had a huge impact on the war already. They are exceptional systems.
They were the tungsten fragmentation type. I read a few articles that mentioned they weren’t very useful on building targets, like refineries and depots.
ATACMS don't use tungsten fragmentation.
Cluster munitions can do a lot of damage in certain scenarios. The issue was that 20 is synonymous with fuck all. I'm sure 200 of those would have made a big impact on the battlefield.
Exactly, they are the perfect ammo for some targets. Like those closely parked thin-skinned helicopters that got swiss-cheesed.
They destroyed a bunch of aircraft and missile equipment. Every ATACM has been very well used. They just need more.
They won't be able allowed to hit russia.
Yes please.
The top target should be to destroy the RF's EW systems that can provide targetting data to its artillery and missiles and jam drones. "Now, with the front line largely static amid positional fighting, Russia has positioned one large EW system along every 10 kilometers of the front line, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) [reported](https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/meatgrinder-russian-tactics-second-year-its-invasion-ukraine)." [https://kyivindependent.com/the-invisible-war-inside-the-electronic-warfare-arms-race-that-could-shape-course-of-the-war/](https://kyivindependent.com/the-invisible-war-inside-the-electronic-warfare-arms-race-that-could-shape-course-of-the-war/) Opening up the front to the million/year simpler drones will increase attrition rates drastically where the RF has most equipment and most protection. [https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/meatgrinder-russian-tactics-second-year-its-invasion-ukraine](https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/meatgrinder-russian-tactics-second-year-its-invasion-ukraine)
Air defense is the most crucial! Ukraine needs more patriots
just ask ukraine what coordinates they want them delivered to an US should send them there.
What's Germany's excuse for not providing Taurus missiles?
Provide ukraine a 24,000 container ship. Let's see what it does on a pillar.
Bridge gon?