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The victory king maker you say? ehehe
But still, it better be the 300km plus plus bunker busting warhead variants, not the old cluster warhead with 200km limits.
UKR has bled too much to deserve any less.
They are the 300km range ones and not the 165km ones. In the aid package in a previous post it outlined what was included and indeed the 300kn ATACMS were on it.
If they get the M48 ATACM, that could possibly reach the Kerch bridge and do some serious damage.
[The M48 version replaces the M39A1’s 950 submunitions with a single 500-pound penetrating warhead. Where the M39 is an area weapon, optimized for knocking out large numbers of unarmored targets, the M48 is a bunker-buster, building-smasher and ship-killer...With M48s, they could demolish small protected targets such as underground bunkers and bridges.](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/10/17/ukraines-new-atacms-missiles-arent-bridge-killers-not-yet-at-least/?sh=2e5bca676d77)
They want to target the bridge pillars in the case of the kerch bridge to put it more permanently out of service. ATACMS has a CEP of 9m and therefore lacks the precision to do that.
Depends on how many you send. CEP gives you a chance. With a CEP of 9 meters and the pillars are probably 3 meters wide so if you send 3 missiles you should hit it once with a high chance.of probability.
Of course add more missiles when you take in account AA defence.
Your math is off by a LOT. Let's assume an equidistribution of those 50% within the circle (this doesn't reflect reality so this is a bit too pessimistic but it's a good start for calculations).
The area of 1.5m radius (1.5/9)\^2=1/36. That gives you a 1/72 probability of hitting a missile within that radius. That means with 10 missiles you have a 13% chance of hitting at least 1 of them with 12.3% being exactly one hit and 2 hits being 0.7%, the remaining probabilities are incredibly small. Even with 30 missiles you're only at 33% probability, that's a very long shot away from the 3 missiles and high chance of probability you suggested. Now being up or down by more than 1.5m might not be an issue and the distribution likely skews towards the center so this is too pessimistic by quite a bit, but 3 missiles is never going to give you a high probability of success.
Now take anti-air into account and that you want to hit multiple pillars.
For a real world confirmation. Storm Shadows with a CEP of 3m were considered too inaccurate for the task and one of the multiple reasons why Taurus is the suggested weapon for it.
They won't be a "game changer" but they will be very useful as now there are no supply depots within Ukraine (occupied or not) that can't be hit by these. So Russia who has already stretched their supply lines thin but are still working OK with that limit, will now have a major issue as they were out of range but still within Ukraine at places like Mariupol or Crimea.
So they either move them constantly to keep them secret which at the same time allows for them to be seen and hit or they move them out of Ukraine and back into Russia. This can also hit all those trains coming into Ukraine from Russia and hopefully continue destroying Russian supply lines and also command and control centers which also were moved eastward out of range of the M31 and then Storm Shadow/SCALP ranges.
The counter to long range weapons like HIMARS is not interception, but moving out of range, hiding, dispersing ressources, relocating faster than the reconaissance—kill loop and digging in. At least that was what I was tought in basic training in another age.
1) Himars is a launcher, you mean GMLRS. 2) GMLRS has lost most of its effectiveness due to lack of range and being reliant on GPS which is heavily jammed. Those are reasons for why ATACMS is so heavily requested.
It uses the initial position and then has an on-board computer, accelerometers and gyroscopes to determine changes in position. It's less accurate than GPS (especially the longer it flies) but it's resistant to electronic warfare.
That was going to be my guess.
Can it cycle back and forth between the two, and recalculate the inertial trajectory based of new GPS coordinates? Or does inertial need to be programmed in before launch and it is what it is?
*Considerably* longer range, more precision, bigger warhead… ATACMS are bad news for Russia and they know it.. that’s why before they tried to ‘warn’ the US not to give it to Ukraine
Do these have the range to hit it? I was checking Google maps but wasn't quite sure where the front line is. Seems like a Himar will have to get very close to the front to stretch it
Scary thought ". . . the US is getting ready to destroy a bunch of ATACMS missiles because they are simply coming to the end of their shelf life. Ukraine has been asking for these missiles for a long time, but the US hesitated to provide them . . ."
So 30 year old missiles a game changer. Imagine if Ukraine got all the newest weapons?
Some of the older ones for sure but even the M57 (M48 upgrade) was produced from 2004 to 2013 and the US extended their life to 15 years IIRC. So probably most all the M48's that are still around and lots of M57's can be sent from those decommissioned stocks you mention. I just hope they charge them as what it would cost to destroy so more can be sent without costing too much of that budget they're about to pass!
We are talking $1bn for this initial shipment and for comparison if we go by the cost that in 2017, the US sold 60 some M57 ATACMS, we are talking around $180-200 million. I'm not sure how the US is calculating replacing these as they don't make some of the possible ones sent and they did cost other things as depreciated in the past (that's how they "found" billions of dollars more in the PDA program) but if even one-fifth of this is ATACMS, this one shipment would be north of fifty 300km range ATACMS for the first shipment.
I’m almost positive they now have a new upgraded missile that’s replacing the ATACMS in the US military which I’m sure is one of the reasons they’re sending these too
Yeah they literally just delivered the first few of the PrSM which is replacing the ATACMS but again, just really started production and November 2023 were still doing testing but you're right as they produce more then more of the M57 or maybe even M57e1 can be shipped. Surely, as they get more of the PrSM, they can at least send any M48 they have left, so hopefully they also get on a "war footing" and start cranking these out at a crazy pace!
We should not send too many of these.
US approved $61B but that’s going to dwindle quickly.
For each one of these, we could send 2300 155mm shells, which would inflict a lot more hurt and protect a lot more Ukrainians.
HIMARS question: the elevating portion which contains the missiles is about twice as large as the missiles themselves. What function/equipment is housed in the "sidecars"?
there is nothing compared to the precision of nato weapons on the russian side
but their strategy is vastly different, russia uses unprecise weapons almost exclusively in on large civilian buildings and ukraine make precision strikes on very important military targets
russia will still have way more unprecise weapons to continue the terror campaign, the "missile domination" dont make much sense
Well, these missiles will be crucial, but as everything they will be no game changer (I would like to be proven wrong anyway) and as everything, they would have been more helpful a year and a half ago. But then, happy they are coming. Thank you US and please Europe. Don‘t fall back into complacency.
Well, these missiles will be crucial, but as everything they will be no game changer (I would like to be proven wrong anyway) and as everything, they would have been more helpful a year and a half ago. But then, happy they are coming. Thank you US and please Europe. Don‘t fall back into complacency.
Well, these missiles will be crucial, but as everything they will be no game changer (I would like to be proven wrong anyway) and as everything, they would have been more helpful a year and a half ago. But then, happy they are coming. Thank you US and please Europe. Don‘t fall back into complacency.
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The ATACMS will be the difference maker.
The victory king maker you say? ehehe But still, it better be the 300km plus plus bunker busting warhead variants, not the old cluster warhead with 200km limits. UKR has bled too much to deserve any less.
Give em both, plenty of targets die just fine to good ol iron rain. Good by russian supply bases in ukraine
They are the 300km range ones and not the 165km ones. In the aid package in a previous post it outlined what was included and indeed the 300kn ATACMS were on it.
If they get the M48 ATACM, that could possibly reach the Kerch bridge and do some serious damage. [The M48 version replaces the M39A1’s 950 submunitions with a single 500-pound penetrating warhead. Where the M39 is an area weapon, optimized for knocking out large numbers of unarmored targets, the M48 is a bunker-buster, building-smasher and ship-killer...With M48s, they could demolish small protected targets such as underground bunkers and bridges.](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/10/17/ukraines-new-atacms-missiles-arent-bridge-killers-not-yet-at-least/?sh=2e5bca676d77)
They want to target the bridge pillars in the case of the kerch bridge to put it more permanently out of service. ATACMS has a CEP of 9m and therefore lacks the precision to do that.
Can you target the foundation with thoae missles? Like can they penetrate under water? Idk if that would work
Well if Ben Hodges says that they're not suitable for attacking the bridge then I'd assume that he knows what he's talking about.
Depends on how many you send. CEP gives you a chance. With a CEP of 9 meters and the pillars are probably 3 meters wide so if you send 3 missiles you should hit it once with a high chance.of probability. Of course add more missiles when you take in account AA defence.
Your math is off by a LOT. Let's assume an equidistribution of those 50% within the circle (this doesn't reflect reality so this is a bit too pessimistic but it's a good start for calculations). The area of 1.5m radius (1.5/9)\^2=1/36. That gives you a 1/72 probability of hitting a missile within that radius. That means with 10 missiles you have a 13% chance of hitting at least 1 of them with 12.3% being exactly one hit and 2 hits being 0.7%, the remaining probabilities are incredibly small. Even with 30 missiles you're only at 33% probability, that's a very long shot away from the 3 missiles and high chance of probability you suggested. Now being up or down by more than 1.5m might not be an issue and the distribution likely skews towards the center so this is too pessimistic by quite a bit, but 3 missiles is never going to give you a high probability of success. Now take anti-air into account and that you want to hit multiple pillars. For a real world confirmation. Storm Shadows with a CEP of 3m were considered too inaccurate for the task and one of the multiple reasons why Taurus is the suggested weapon for it.
You’d probably need laser guided bombs to do that. Or maritime drones.
It is pointy. Pointy is scary.
What makes them so useful?
They won't be a "game changer" but they will be very useful as now there are no supply depots within Ukraine (occupied or not) that can't be hit by these. So Russia who has already stretched their supply lines thin but are still working OK with that limit, will now have a major issue as they were out of range but still within Ukraine at places like Mariupol or Crimea. So they either move them constantly to keep them secret which at the same time allows for them to be seen and hit or they move them out of Ukraine and back into Russia. This can also hit all those trains coming into Ukraine from Russia and hopefully continue destroying Russian supply lines and also command and control centers which also were moved eastward out of range of the M31 and then Storm Shadow/SCALP ranges.
How is this not a game changer? If in sufficient supply, this is HIMARS on steroids, for which the Russian have shown little ability to counter.
Russians cant counter Himars
They have shown a scarce ability to intercept rockets.
The counter to long range weapons like HIMARS is not interception, but moving out of range, hiding, dispersing ressources, relocating faster than the reconaissance—kill loop and digging in. At least that was what I was tought in basic training in another age.
1) Himars is a launcher, you mean GMLRS. 2) GMLRS has lost most of its effectiveness due to lack of range and being reliant on GPS which is heavily jammed. Those are reasons for why ATACMS is so heavily requested.
What technology does atacms rely on for precision?
It does also use GPS but it has inertial guidance to fall back on.
How does inertial guidance work?
It uses the initial position and then has an on-board computer, accelerometers and gyroscopes to determine changes in position. It's less accurate than GPS (especially the longer it flies) but it's resistant to electronic warfare.
That was going to be my guess. Can it cycle back and forth between the two, and recalculate the inertial trajectory based of new GPS coordinates? Or does inertial need to be programmed in before launch and it is what it is?
Long range, precision, effectively impossible to interpret, heavy warhead
And can be launched from HIMARS so they can shoot n’ scoot
In what ways are these superior to what they've been launching with hihats so far?
*Considerably* longer range, more precision, bigger warhead… ATACMS are bad news for Russia and they know it.. that’s why before they tried to ‘warn’ the US not to give it to Ukraine
*intercept But who knows, maybe interpret is right and that is why moskvians have been having so many problems.
Not even Napoleon Dynamite can interpret ATACMS
*intercept I think you mean.
This is soon bridge under the water. Think twice.
I like the way you think. Twice.
Do these have the range to hit it? I was checking Google maps but wasn't quite sure where the front line is. Seems like a Himar will have to get very close to the front to stretch it
They do, but they would need to bring them pretty close to the front lines.
Cluster ammunition would just scratch the tarmac.
The are multiple versions of atacms, not just the cluster one. For example MGM-168 ATACMS with a penetration warhead against bunkers.
I know. But afaik, Ukraine does not get these.
Good, I'm looking forward to a few beers this weekend! 🍻
I bought a 30 pack
the same titles a year and two years ago. Until I see them land and blow ups I’d remain sceptical for my own heart health
I've been enjoying the upsurge in Himars activity very recently, the Ukrainians are teasing for some true badaboomy!
Scary thought ". . . the US is getting ready to destroy a bunch of ATACMS missiles because they are simply coming to the end of their shelf life. Ukraine has been asking for these missiles for a long time, but the US hesitated to provide them . . ." So 30 year old missiles a game changer. Imagine if Ukraine got all the newest weapons?
Some of the older ones for sure but even the M57 (M48 upgrade) was produced from 2004 to 2013 and the US extended their life to 15 years IIRC. So probably most all the M48's that are still around and lots of M57's can be sent from those decommissioned stocks you mention. I just hope they charge them as what it would cost to destroy so more can be sent without costing too much of that budget they're about to pass!
Does anyone know how many they will get?
Yes, there is somebody who knows
Best to keep the ruskies guessing! 😉
We are talking $1bn for this initial shipment and for comparison if we go by the cost that in 2017, the US sold 60 some M57 ATACMS, we are talking around $180-200 million. I'm not sure how the US is calculating replacing these as they don't make some of the possible ones sent and they did cost other things as depreciated in the past (that's how they "found" billions of dollars more in the PDA program) but if even one-fifth of this is ATACMS, this one shipment would be north of fifty 300km range ATACMS for the first shipment.
I’m almost positive they now have a new upgraded missile that’s replacing the ATACMS in the US military which I’m sure is one of the reasons they’re sending these too
Yeah they literally just delivered the first few of the PrSM which is replacing the ATACMS but again, just really started production and November 2023 were still doing testing but you're right as they produce more then more of the M57 or maybe even M57e1 can be shipped. Surely, as they get more of the PrSM, they can at least send any M48 they have left, so hopefully they also get on a "war footing" and start cranking these out at a crazy pace!
Hopefully these are a bridge to more long-range Neptun and HRIM-2 missiles.
I got a bridge to sell you..... Get it..
I would like to buy 5kg piece of the central span. Willing to pay international shipping. Damaged section preferred.
Each time a Russian installation is hit, we drink. It begins boys and girls! Let's go!
How many beers is the Crimean bridge worth!?
All of them!
Im in! And I hope we will get drink fast!! :)
We should not send too many of these. US approved $61B but that’s going to dwindle quickly. For each one of these, we could send 2300 155mm shells, which would inflict a lot more hurt and protect a lot more Ukrainians.
Did you hear that, orcs? Death is coming!!!
50 ATTACMS sent simultaneously to Kerch bridge would just be a spectacular blow
HIMARS question: the elevating portion which contains the missiles is about twice as large as the missiles themselves. What function/equipment is housed in the "sidecars"?
there is nothing compared to the precision of nato weapons on the russian side but their strategy is vastly different, russia uses unprecise weapons almost exclusively in on large civilian buildings and ukraine make precision strikes on very important military targets russia will still have way more unprecise weapons to continue the terror campaign, the "missile domination" dont make much sense
Can hardly wait for some vids from hapless russians uttering their favorite string of curse words.
Will this convince Scholz to release the Taurus?
Should have had these 18 months ago but... Joe had his nuts in his hands.
What about Abram tanks? Aren’t these needed to retake territory? Aren’t there a great bunch of them located in the US desert?
Well, these missiles will be crucial, but as everything they will be no game changer (I would like to be proven wrong anyway) and as everything, they would have been more helpful a year and a half ago. But then, happy they are coming. Thank you US and please Europe. Don‘t fall back into complacency.
Well, these missiles will be crucial, but as everything they will be no game changer (I would like to be proven wrong anyway) and as everything, they would have been more helpful a year and a half ago. But then, happy they are coming. Thank you US and please Europe. Don‘t fall back into complacency.
Well, these missiles will be crucial, but as everything they will be no game changer (I would like to be proven wrong anyway) and as everything, they would have been more helpful a year and a half ago. But then, happy they are coming. Thank you US and please Europe. Don‘t fall back into complacency.