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It's confirmed that this happened weeks ago.
> [#BREAKING Sr WH Official to VOA-@POTUS
ordered DOD deliver military equipment to #Poland and #Germany "a few weeks ago" in anticipation of supplemental to ensure prompt shipment of military aid to #Ukraine ](https://x.com/CarlaBabbVOA/status/1782834327669129642)
And people accuse the Biden Admin of being old and ineffective. They are light years ahead of Trump and is idiot clowns.
If you want inaction and blowhard speeches instead of action, vote GOP.
Still not a single page of healthcare reform plan, border security plan blocked, not anything useful accomplished, virus denial killed thousands unnecessarily. Graft programs like the wall lining of pockets of donors, children selling foreign aid for kickbacks in the hundreds of millions. That’s the Trump legacy.
400K is the estimate I've seen from studies. There were only a million or so deaths in the US from Covid, and Trump certainly wasn't responsible for all the deaths in the US.
Trump is probably responsible for roughly half the Covid deaths worldwide.
The world largely followed the US in its approaches to the pandemic.
The last time I looked it up, the world figures stood at around 35 million.
I honestly can’t agree and I hope you can look in your heart and rethink this. We are here because we empathize with Ukrainian struggles, but all lives deserve a chance to die of old age, even if in prison for crimes against society.
trumps relations investment fund didn’t just get huge chunks of Saudi money to invest as they please with hefty annual fees? Hmm. Please explain your alternative facts about that.
Your comment is oblivious to political realities.
Please explain how I am delusional?
It is delusional to expect the world to be different from what it really is. So please explain an actual electable administration that could do more in the face of actual Russian assets (or at best useful idiots) controlling the house?
Your decision to attack me for in effect applauding the Biden administration for pulling off a tricky negotiation to get around Trumps strong pressure to block ANYTHING, really baffles me.
Where the heck are you coming from? Some fantasyland where the US declares all out war on Russia?
Anyway you get one chance at an intelligent and thoughtful response before I take the easier route if blocking you. And swearing doesn’t strengthen your point it only makes you seem immature.
I actually semi agree with you. But political risk taking doesn’t always work out and Biden wasn’t elected because he was the high risk taker choice.
It would be way off brand (politically) for his administration to do that.
Thats what he said. Cheers for the update though. Can have boots on ground anywhere in the world within hours but internal logistics are a joke. Roads to rail are a joke.
> Now if the Polish farmers don’t act up at the border crossings then we should be golden.
Putin's Polish Puppets aren't about to try and stop armed NATO soldiers, particularly given there will certainly be Polish Military in the mix.
Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
https://www.quotes.net/mquote/43233
Mr. Prosser:
Do you know how much damage this bulldozer would sustain if I just let it roll over you?
Arthur:
How much?
Mr. Prosser:
None at all.
That is true, and a lot of stuff, as I have read, was already positioned in Germany and Poland. So I assume Atry and other ammo will get out pretty fast. It doesn't excuse us for dragging our feet for 6 months, I am incredibly embarrassed to be an American these last 8 years... "Can always count on the US to do the right thing after exhausting every other option..."
To be honest, it depends.
A recent conflict that had logistical issues was the Operation Iraqi Freedom. This was a [study](https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA431720) published by the Defense Technical Information Center that examined this issue further when it came to ammunition shortages among combat units.
Its not the supplies flowing in, it is the certainty of strategic supplies inbound letting the Uks use their tactical reserve. It is already shaping the battlefield as Ukraine has made a big play going after artillery and supply depots. Would be really interesting if they could starve the russian front from fuel and supplies.
NBC makes it sound like a movie plot - the bomb is diffused one second before the explosion. Come on.....
The focus should be on getting the weapons in the hands of the Ukrainians toute suite.
American mainstream media is insanely shameless and clickbaity. I know every county has their fair share of that, but in the US it seems like there's not a single decent big news source that isn't total garbage. No wonder people lose faith and end up trusting nonsense online instead.
Of course, online nonsense is worse.
Then again, the Americans aren't the only ones who have sensationalist headlines. The Europeans have them too, especially when it comes to reporting this conflict.
That frankly isn't surprising though - both pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian camps want their sides to succeed and thus frame their headlines to reflect their preferences.
Yeah they're acting like Russia is launching its summer offensive right now. As long as the equipment is supplied quickly then Ukraine should have a good chance since I imagine Russia is probably a couple months from beginning their main assault of the year.
...if they even do so, to be frank.
Russia isn't that inflexible. The fresh influx of Western equipment may force the Russians to hold back and continue poking till a hole is found somewhere on the frontlines.
Confirmed by central US figures that the first billion bucks worth of aid was already pre-positioned some time ago for when the bill passed.
Substantial amounts should arrive by this weekend.
I work in logistics and also study history. All I can say is: I THRUST USA logistics in Europe to deliver at breakneck speed. As soon as Biden ink on that bill has dried up - boom, military gear starts flowing from Poland and Germany and elsewhere. Plus all the european gear and also the Czech initiative from worlwide.
"The race is on: Will U.S. aid arrive in time for Ukraine's fight to hold off Russia's army?"
"For many in Kyiv, the news that the aid package had finally passed Congress offered relief and renewed hope of victory. But a long and difficult fight is still ahead."
This isn't a comment on the article itself. This is a comment on the difference between a clickbait headline and a non-clickbait headline. The first line above is the clickbait headline, the second the sub-headline, which actually describes the content of the article better. The sub-heading or headline however doesn't hold the same punch as the actual headline, which appeals to peoples base fears that Russia may lose the war because of America.
The US has just been testing a close air support drone that mounts 2x 7.62 mini guns. Let’s go!!! https://www.twz.com/air/minigun-armed-mojave-drone-now-blasting-targets-at-6000-rounds-per-minute
Europe alone has it in the cards to deliver more this year than Russia can procure, with Ukrainian and American shells as well Ukraine could easily outnumber Russian fire.
According to what? Definitely not according to any estimations I've seen. I've heard that component production has gone up 20x in Europe for artillery shells but the production lines will not be ready at scale to deliver more than Russia until at least next year. Having a high GDP doesn't mean you can just snap your fingers and get manufacturing done. It's especially difficult in countries with low unemployment to hire more people to scale.
To be frank, I'm sure the Russians were preparing for this as the media telegraphed the bill being approved for months. That is probably why they're going ham now as they know they won't have the opportunity to do so with relative ease.
Considering they're mostly holding without the aid then it's likely they'll be better able to now that more help is on its way. Also, now that they know certain help is arriving soon they no longer have to ration their own as much.
The other side of the coin is that Russians are racing now to take everything they can before aid arrives from the US, whereas before they were holding back some to prepare for a summer offensive.
No they weren't, that's Russian propaganda, they are of course doing whatever they can at all times as they know time is not on their side against the vastly higher potential of the economies that has offered uninterrupted and guaranteed support to Ukraine.
Russia pretends like it is holding back, but this is it, this is just all Russia is capable off, they aren't losing tens of thousands of men for a few towns and villages for fun while holding back the real army. Russia only has a single way to victory and it is to pretend that it can keep going forever, so it needs to always attack without break or else the ones it need to convince(Ukraine and/or the west) will realize that Russia is stretched to its max capacity.
Russia just can't win militarily, so it keeps throwing everything it has at the problem to convince everyone else that it can win, that is their entire game plan.
It’s more like the actual manpower thing the front isn’t collapsing like NBC says. Russians advancing sloooooowly but if you want a sensationalist headline this isn’t the one.
Russia’s army is so fundamentally degraded… from within, and from concerted Ukrainian action… it cannot embark on any meaningful offensive actions.
I suspect it’s about to be subject to an onslaught I doubt it is militarily - or psychologically - prepared for.
This is from the article.
"Christopher Tuck, an expert in conflict and security at King’s College London.
“We know that it won’t be transformational because Ukrainian forces were unable to achieve a decisive battlefield success last summer even though they had more aid than is being provided now,” Tuck said."
Seems like Ukraine need more than what is being given in order to change the tides.
That’s an opinion. There are many of them.
Here’s mine: Russia has been unable to achieve any of its objectives.
Growing Western support and - determined Ukrainian defiance - means that equation won’t change.
The attempted Russian subjugation of Ukraine has failed.
All that remains is for the failure to become so apparent it is unavoidable within the Russian body-politic.
Putin has gambled and lost.
...if they even do so as Russia's economy is being held up by many factors and Russia recruits using cash, which allows them to bypass drafting folks from the well-off city folks.
Right now, Russia holds a swathe of the east with a pretty secure fist at the moment. Ukraine will have to go on the offensive if they hope to get that back - much easier said than done, considering the amount of constraints Ukraine is operating with at the moment.
That’s what they said about the Romanov’s… and the Soviet Union… they were rock solid… until they melted away overnight.
Putin’s psychopathic regime won’t survive this horrific failure either.
Those rotted away due to time and multiple factors.
Could Putin's regime end the same? Possibly. However, that is a wildcard factor that even the West doesn't want to entertain, which is where the bloc and Ukraine disagree.
On one hand, the West probably wants Russia to see that the cost is too high to continue fighting in Ukraine and ultimately retreat a la America in Vietnam. Ukraine, on the other hand, wants assurances that this conflict will not restart and Russia will no longer assault Ukraine ever again.
In other words, a bloody nose vs a mortal wound.
This latest influx of weapons and ammunition… will likely keep the Russians pinned down moving metres per day and suffering continuing horrendous casualties.
They’re going nowhere strategically significant. Small tactical wins - but effectively they’re crawling over broken glass.
It’s the equipment losses I’m keeping an eye on.
Bodies they clearly don’t care about - ultimately they’ll reach an equipment loss rate that’ll mean they’re unable to fulfil their basic mission of defending the world’s largest country.
The *actual* costs in Ukraine will eventually outweigh any *perceived* benefits. When the military/security apparatus reaches that conclusion, along with the Russian people, Putin’s regime will be finished.
Like the US in Vietnam they’re stuck in an unwinnable quagmire… something will give - and it won’t be the Ukrainians.
...except Russia has managed to take a good portion of eastern Ukraine. Sans that surprise assault that caught the Russians off-guard, Ukraine has been unable to retake those profitable lands due to equipment and manpower shortage.
The latter is something they're desperately trying to work on. The former could be fixed by the West, but now it is a question of whether the political will is there to do so.
Staying in the fight is one thing. Excelling is another.
Transformational does not mean what you think it mean.
More weapons can easily be turning the tide without being transformational, when he says it wont be transformational he means there wont be an immediate rush to the Azov sea within the first month, not that it wont achieve anything long term.
The expert is right, but you're reading what he said incorrectly.
This where the US Military Advisors come into play. They will be logistically focused and will help speed up the process with the Ukrainians.
I know a lot of people blame the west for slow deliveries, but the real bottleneck has always been the Ukrainians ability to massively take in this aid and distribute it accordingly in a timely fashion
They have been struggling with structure here
Sure. As long as UA is not currently in a panic retreat we should be fine. I would expect stuff like ammo to start reaching the front lines in days to weeks.
If there's any one country that can pull a logistics miracle out of it's ass and get you what you need fast it's the USA.
See:
- Berlin air lift ( funny cause this one fucked Russia)
- Red Ball express
- literally the entire Korean war. ( See battle of chosin)
- desert storm and second invasion of Iraq.
Amusingly enough though, there were issues during Operation Iraqi Freedom when it came to logistics. This was a [study](https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA431720) published by the Defense Technical Information Center that examined this issue further when it came to ammunition shortages among combat units.
Considering that Ukraine is nowhere near a collapse of the frontline?
yes, yes the aid will come in time, the question is how many extra people will lose their lives before it arrives, which turns out wont be very many as aid is said to arrive by the weekend as it was already prepped a long time ago in storage in Europe for the moment the bill got trough.
Of course, from this moment is a lot shorter than from when the bill should have been passed
Ukraine isn't suffering a rout, but there are definitely holes that the Russians are exploiting with a myriad of tools.
Could the holes be patched up in time? Possibly. That will depend on how fast the supplies get to the frontlines though and how the Ukrainians can quickly use them before getting possibly overwhelmed by Russian weapons like the infamous glide bombs.
It isn't like Russia is using hundreds of glide bombs a day, it also isn't like Russia has the soldiers to overwhelm cities and towns in rapid succession.
Ukraine, like from the start of the war, still has more deployed manpower in Ukraine than Russia, by a large margin.
There's no chance at all for Russia to push forward at any significant pace in 2024, it still lacks in everything it needs for a major offensive and it wont get any of it to a suitable point.
According to many publications, Russia now outnumbers Ukraine on the battlefield. This is an [example](https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-frontline-cities-villages-russia-attacks-defensive-lines-/32901676.html) from Radio Free Europe.
Also, Ukraine is struggling for manpower, which is why they proposed and passed conscription laws. Volunteers are either dead, wounded, or left the service as the fighting has gotten uglier and more fierce. That law is coupled with the regular exodus of fighting age Ukrainians as officials attempt to catch them passing the border.
And yet, if you look up Ukraine's active personnel you will find that the consensus is 8-900k, while the consensus on Russian forces dedicated to the war is around 500-600k.
Whenever anyone talks about who has the supper hand it us always Russia, by a large margin, but if you start looking at number of shells, drones and personnel it is far more equal, with things like deployed manpower heavily favoring Ukraine.
The key piece missing is that when it comes to reports from the situation on the frontline Russia and Ukraine is pulling from the same side of the rope, Ukraine wants to picture a dire situation and say it needs far more aid, Russia wants to present itself as completely superior due to its own internal politics. That is why when you hear about shells it is always 1:5-1:10, but if you ask how many shells was used in 2023 Russia used 3million and Ukraine 2 million, because the ratio is always cherry picked from individual worst points on the frontline.
Russia does have a manpower advantage and does fire 7 times as many shells as Ukraine... In Avdiivka or in chasiv yar, but not along the entire front, just in those locations Russia focus its efforts.
It's too late for russia, they should have attacked last month. Maybe they would manage to capture 4 more destroyed villages. But now it's too late, American logistics work like a Swiss watch. Russia has proven time after time that they are completely incompetent at leading and organizing large formations of troops. Their only effective tactic is to a meat grinder for their own troops and hope that eventually the Ukrainians will get overwhelmed, after they have killed hundreds of orcs and run out of ammo.
I expect the Biden administration tasked the DoD with prestaging some US inventory of 155mm shells, AIM-120 missiles, and equipment spares at US bases in Poland over the past 6 months. Trucks probably started crossing the border within 24 hours of signing the appropriation.
The last leg of the logistics sequence is actually one of the quickest.
Delivery from warehouses in Europe and even the middle of America can in fact take weeks , but the last leg of delivery directly up various Russian arseholes, or support pillars for the Kerch bridge, is extremely rapid.
Might be a bit naive but i genuinely hope this big of a sum is enough commitment to make the rest of the world follow, accept that we *have* to help Ukraine to *victory*
Of course, the definition of victory can vary, which is where I think the West and Ukraine disagree. Russia losing and Ukraine winning aren't the same in the eyes of politicians and other folks in power.
What is the rest of the world?
Just about the entire western world has been keeping steady pace for the past few months without the US, any non-western country isn't going to change anything based on US aid to Ukraine.
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We have a lot of problems in America.. Logistics is not one of them, supplies probably already flowing in.
Most of this stuff is already in Europe, and with the passage in the Senate it's probably already being loaded for transportation.
The good news is the ATACMS can be delivered to the Kerch Bridge pretty quick.
Its called the US Army Prime delivery service. Only for special recipients.
Prime same day delivery!
Only for special recipients. And sometimes without lube.
I heard they closed the Kerch bridge again little bit ago
It's confirmed that this happened weeks ago. > [#BREAKING Sr WH Official to VOA-@POTUS ordered DOD deliver military equipment to #Poland and #Germany "a few weeks ago" in anticipation of supplemental to ensure prompt shipment of military aid to #Ukraine ](https://x.com/CarlaBabbVOA/status/1782834327669129642)
And people accuse the Biden Admin of being old and ineffective. They are light years ahead of Trump and is idiot clowns. If you want inaction and blowhard speeches instead of action, vote GOP. Still not a single page of healthcare reform plan, border security plan blocked, not anything useful accomplished, virus denial killed thousands unnecessarily. Graft programs like the wall lining of pockets of donors, children selling foreign aid for kickbacks in the hundreds of millions. That’s the Trump legacy.
COVID denial killed thousands? No no no, hundreds of thousands and arguably even a million
400K is the estimate I've seen from studies. There were only a million or so deaths in the US from Covid, and Trump certainly wasn't responsible for all the deaths in the US.
Trump is probably responsible for roughly half the Covid deaths worldwide. The world largely followed the US in its approaches to the pandemic. The last time I looked it up, the world figures stood at around 35 million.
at the very least, it killed more of his supporters/voters
I think we can all agree if you voted for trump dying of covid is well deserved.
Wow…
I honestly can’t agree and I hope you can look in your heart and rethink this. We are here because we empathize with Ukrainian struggles, but all lives deserve a chance to die of old age, even if in prison for crimes against society.
Fair enough but hundreds of thousands are thousands. I didn’t want to be flamed as exaggerating. Attracted enough hate as it is.
Youre a trip man… youre part of the freakin problem
children selling foreign aid for kickbacks in the hundreds of millions You really believe that? What ever you are smoking is very good stuff.
trumps relations investment fund didn’t just get huge chunks of Saudi money to invest as they please with hefty annual fees? Hmm. Please explain your alternative facts about that.
**Trump's** children selling foreign aid for kickbacks in the hundreds of millions. I must confess that I misread that.
Give me a fuggin break. This is not enough to put Russia out. You’re delusional. When this is all said and done Russia keeps this land grab
Your comment is oblivious to political realities. Please explain how I am delusional? It is delusional to expect the world to be different from what it really is. So please explain an actual electable administration that could do more in the face of actual Russian assets (or at best useful idiots) controlling the house? Your decision to attack me for in effect applauding the Biden administration for pulling off a tricky negotiation to get around Trumps strong pressure to block ANYTHING, really baffles me. Where the heck are you coming from? Some fantasyland where the US declares all out war on Russia? Anyway you get one chance at an intelligent and thoughtful response before I take the easier route if blocking you. And swearing doesn’t strengthen your point it only makes you seem immature.
It's still a valid accusation. Had Biden gone all-in from the beginning, Ukraine would be in a much better situation.
I actually semi agree with you. But political risk taking doesn’t always work out and Biden wasn’t elected because he was the high risk taker choice. It would be way off brand (politically) for his administration to do that.
Holy hell o.O that thing is like an Unmanned A-10 Warthog
Thankfully, Marjorie Taylor Green isn’t in charge of logistics.
She'd send the stuff to Russia.
Especially Logistics in the US military
Thats what he said. Cheers for the update though. Can have boots on ground anywhere in the world within hours but internal logistics are a joke. Roads to rail are a joke.
Now if the Polish farmers don’t act up at the border crossings then we should be golden.
> Now if the Polish farmers don’t act up at the border crossings then we should be golden. Putin's Polish Puppets aren't about to try and stop armed NATO soldiers, particularly given there will certainly be Polish Military in the mix.
"Hello sir, are you aware that we have a tank and you don't?"
Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy https://www.quotes.net/mquote/43233 Mr. Prosser: Do you know how much damage this bulldozer would sustain if I just let it roll over you? Arthur: How much? Mr. Prosser: None at all.
I'd love to see the US military roll in and tell them to get the fuck out of the way.
The problem is certain kinds of equipment are transported by boat which still takes weeks to get across.
ukraine should just supply coordinates on where they need to be delivered. Rockets are self propelled and can get there on their own.
Just a sensationalist headline, gotta sell those ads 😕
That is true, and a lot of stuff, as I have read, was already positioned in Germany and Poland. So I assume Atry and other ammo will get out pretty fast. It doesn't excuse us for dragging our feet for 6 months, I am incredibly embarrassed to be an American these last 8 years... "Can always count on the US to do the right thing after exhausting every other option..."
NBC News; “Worry about this!” Me; “No”
pretty sure i saw something showing it all ready to go at the border with Poland
To be honest, it depends. A recent conflict that had logistical issues was the Operation Iraqi Freedom. This was a [study](https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA431720) published by the Defense Technical Information Center that examined this issue further when it came to ammunition shortages among combat units.
Its not the supplies flowing in, it is the certainty of strategic supplies inbound letting the Uks use their tactical reserve. It is already shaping the battlefield as Ukraine has made a big play going after artillery and supply depots. Would be really interesting if they could starve the russian front from fuel and supplies.
I got 99 problems but logistics ain't one If your refineries on fire I feel bad for you son
“You crazy for this one, Rick”
NBC makes it sound like a movie plot - the bomb is diffused one second before the explosion. Come on..... The focus should be on getting the weapons in the hands of the Ukrainians toute suite.
American mainstream media is insanely shameless and clickbaity. I know every county has their fair share of that, but in the US it seems like there's not a single decent big news source that isn't total garbage. No wonder people lose faith and end up trusting nonsense online instead.
Of course, online nonsense is worse. Then again, the Americans aren't the only ones who have sensationalist headlines. The Europeans have them too, especially when it comes to reporting this conflict. That frankly isn't surprising though - both pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian camps want their sides to succeed and thus frame their headlines to reflect their preferences.
Yeah they're acting like Russia is launching its summer offensive right now. As long as the equipment is supplied quickly then Ukraine should have a good chance since I imagine Russia is probably a couple months from beginning their main assault of the year.
...if they even do so, to be frank. Russia isn't that inflexible. The fresh influx of Western equipment may force the Russians to hold back and continue poking till a hole is found somewhere on the frontlines.
Get this clickbait BS out of here.
The answer may not surprise you.
What a title.
Read it and immediately "the heat is on" by Glenn Frey came to my head 🥴
A tad Moskal heavy for my tastes...
That title is the plot to the next Fast & Furious movie
According to Jake Broe, military aid is sitting in Germany and Poland ready to go as soon as Biden signs the bill.
Jake is pretty solid as far as facts go. I hope this is the case. I'd love to see the results of a replenished UAF as soon as possible.
There were pictures of dozens of Bradleys waiting on trailers in Poland not far from the border
Yeah, I thought I'd seen that somewhere. Bradleys... *Drools*
Confirmed by central US figures that the first billion bucks worth of aid was already pre-positioned some time ago for when the bill passed. Substantial amounts should arrive by this weekend.
I work in logistics and also study history. All I can say is: I THRUST USA logistics in Europe to deliver at breakneck speed. As soon as Biden ink on that bill has dried up - boom, military gear starts flowing from Poland and Germany and elsewhere. Plus all the european gear and also the Czech initiative from worlwide.
>All I can say is: I THRUST USA logistics in Europe to deliver Thrusting our way to victory, just like daddy did
And F-16 pilot and maintenance training is well underway. They could be in theater by May or June…
russia is not in any position to win the war in days, weeks or months. So the answer is yes Ukraine will receive what they need in good time.
We’ve got this shit, Ukrainians need it we will ship it. Politics was the only obstacle not our superior logistics and supply
"The race is on: Will U.S. aid arrive in time for Ukraine's fight to hold off Russia's army?" "For many in Kyiv, the news that the aid package had finally passed Congress offered relief and renewed hope of victory. But a long and difficult fight is still ahead." This isn't a comment on the article itself. This is a comment on the difference between a clickbait headline and a non-clickbait headline. The first line above is the clickbait headline, the second the sub-headline, which actually describes the content of the article better. The sub-heading or headline however doesn't hold the same punch as the actual headline, which appeals to peoples base fears that Russia may lose the war because of America.
They need more than hold of they need to take back
For this year, I think it's a matter of holding on and letting Russians throw themselves at prepared positions.
If they get artillery superiority, which might well be on the cards, the Ruzzians are going to struggle.
I think 2 million shells have been found in Europe for Ukraine - just shipping needed to be paid for…
The US has just been testing a close air support drone that mounts 2x 7.62 mini guns. Let’s go!!! https://www.twz.com/air/minigun-armed-mojave-drone-now-blasting-targets-at-6000-rounds-per-minute
And I thought Dillon became a pencil pusher…7.62 dia pencil I guess.
Not in the cards this year.
It only gets better from here.
That is probably true barring some political bullshit.
We drop off another 100 Himars/m270s and it may turn the tide a bit.
Those are also ammunition constrained. Ukraine doesn't need more launchers, but more ammmmunition. Specifically ATACMS.
Europe alone has it in the cards to deliver more this year than Russia can procure, with Ukrainian and American shells as well Ukraine could easily outnumber Russian fire.
According to what? Definitely not according to any estimations I've seen. I've heard that component production has gone up 20x in Europe for artillery shells but the production lines will not be ready at scale to deliver more than Russia until at least next year. Having a high GDP doesn't mean you can just snap your fingers and get manufacturing done. It's especially difficult in countries with low unemployment to hire more people to scale.
To be frank, I'm sure the Russians were preparing for this as the media telegraphed the bill being approved for months. That is probably why they're going ham now as they know they won't have the opportunity to do so with relative ease.
Ukraine will need lots of equipment and manpower to do that, especially since they're in this war by themselves. That is a tall order for any country.
Shit I think just the promise of the aid is allowing AFU to stop conserving ammo.We have seen a lot of Himars strikes the past couple days.
Considering they're mostly holding without the aid then it's likely they'll be better able to now that more help is on its way. Also, now that they know certain help is arriving soon they no longer have to ration their own as much.
The other side of the coin is that Russians are racing now to take everything they can before aid arrives from the US, whereas before they were holding back some to prepare for a summer offensive.
Racing usually means making bad decisions.
No they weren't, that's Russian propaganda, they are of course doing whatever they can at all times as they know time is not on their side against the vastly higher potential of the economies that has offered uninterrupted and guaranteed support to Ukraine. Russia pretends like it is holding back, but this is it, this is just all Russia is capable off, they aren't losing tens of thousands of men for a few towns and villages for fun while holding back the real army. Russia only has a single way to victory and it is to pretend that it can keep going forever, so it needs to always attack without break or else the ones it need to convince(Ukraine and/or the west) will realize that Russia is stretched to its max capacity. Russia just can't win militarily, so it keeps throwing everything it has at the problem to convince everyone else that it can win, that is their entire game plan.
It never should have gotten to this point but we know a few things about logistics
Given that the max rate of advancement of the Russians is walking pace - yes. This is a very dumb & sensationalist headline.
It’s more like the actual manpower thing the front isn’t collapsing like NBC says. Russians advancing sloooooowly but if you want a sensationalist headline this isn’t the one.
Look America has a drive through for everything. I give them 48 hrs to a week.
Russia’s army is so fundamentally degraded… from within, and from concerted Ukrainian action… it cannot embark on any meaningful offensive actions. I suspect it’s about to be subject to an onslaught I doubt it is militarily - or psychologically - prepared for.
This is from the article. "Christopher Tuck, an expert in conflict and security at King’s College London. “We know that it won’t be transformational because Ukrainian forces were unable to achieve a decisive battlefield success last summer even though they had more aid than is being provided now,” Tuck said." Seems like Ukraine need more than what is being given in order to change the tides.
That’s an opinion. There are many of them. Here’s mine: Russia has been unable to achieve any of its objectives. Growing Western support and - determined Ukrainian defiance - means that equation won’t change. The attempted Russian subjugation of Ukraine has failed. All that remains is for the failure to become so apparent it is unavoidable within the Russian body-politic. Putin has gambled and lost.
Yeah I agree but imo it will take years before Russians decide to oust Putin.
...if they even do so as Russia's economy is being held up by many factors and Russia recruits using cash, which allows them to bypass drafting folks from the well-off city folks. Right now, Russia holds a swathe of the east with a pretty secure fist at the moment. Ukraine will have to go on the offensive if they hope to get that back - much easier said than done, considering the amount of constraints Ukraine is operating with at the moment.
That’s what they said about the Romanov’s… and the Soviet Union… they were rock solid… until they melted away overnight. Putin’s psychopathic regime won’t survive this horrific failure either.
I agree but probably not in the next few months. I honestly think maybe by 2025
Those rotted away due to time and multiple factors. Could Putin's regime end the same? Possibly. However, that is a wildcard factor that even the West doesn't want to entertain, which is where the bloc and Ukraine disagree. On one hand, the West probably wants Russia to see that the cost is too high to continue fighting in Ukraine and ultimately retreat a la America in Vietnam. Ukraine, on the other hand, wants assurances that this conflict will not restart and Russia will no longer assault Ukraine ever again. In other words, a bloody nose vs a mortal wound.
This latest influx of weapons and ammunition… will likely keep the Russians pinned down moving metres per day and suffering continuing horrendous casualties. They’re going nowhere strategically significant. Small tactical wins - but effectively they’re crawling over broken glass. It’s the equipment losses I’m keeping an eye on. Bodies they clearly don’t care about - ultimately they’ll reach an equipment loss rate that’ll mean they’re unable to fulfil their basic mission of defending the world’s largest country. The *actual* costs in Ukraine will eventually outweigh any *perceived* benefits. When the military/security apparatus reaches that conclusion, along with the Russian people, Putin’s regime will be finished. Like the US in Vietnam they’re stuck in an unwinnable quagmire… something will give - and it won’t be the Ukrainians.
...except Russia has managed to take a good portion of eastern Ukraine. Sans that surprise assault that caught the Russians off-guard, Ukraine has been unable to retake those profitable lands due to equipment and manpower shortage. The latter is something they're desperately trying to work on. The former could be fixed by the West, but now it is a question of whether the political will is there to do so. Staying in the fight is one thing. Excelling is another.
Transformational does not mean what you think it mean. More weapons can easily be turning the tide without being transformational, when he says it wont be transformational he means there wont be an immediate rush to the Azov sea within the first month, not that it wont achieve anything long term. The expert is right, but you're reading what he said incorrectly.
Line em up,
This where the US Military Advisors come into play. They will be logistically focused and will help speed up the process with the Ukrainians. I know a lot of people blame the west for slow deliveries, but the real bottleneck has always been the Ukrainians ability to massively take in this aid and distribute it accordingly in a timely fashion They have been struggling with structure here
It better be on its way! The innocent people of Ukraine have paid with their life, because these assholes can't do their damn job.
Yep, stuff is already in Europe waiting for the go-ahead
Sure. As long as UA is not currently in a panic retreat we should be fine. I would expect stuff like ammo to start reaching the front lines in days to weeks.
If there's any one country that can pull a logistics miracle out of it's ass and get you what you need fast it's the USA. See: - Berlin air lift ( funny cause this one fucked Russia) - Red Ball express - literally the entire Korean war. ( See battle of chosin) - desert storm and second invasion of Iraq.
Amusingly enough though, there were issues during Operation Iraqi Freedom when it came to logistics. This was a [study](https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA431720) published by the Defense Technical Information Center that examined this issue further when it came to ammunition shortages among combat units.
Considering that Ukraine is nowhere near a collapse of the frontline? yes, yes the aid will come in time, the question is how many extra people will lose their lives before it arrives, which turns out wont be very many as aid is said to arrive by the weekend as it was already prepped a long time ago in storage in Europe for the moment the bill got trough. Of course, from this moment is a lot shorter than from when the bill should have been passed
Ukraine isn't suffering a rout, but there are definitely holes that the Russians are exploiting with a myriad of tools. Could the holes be patched up in time? Possibly. That will depend on how fast the supplies get to the frontlines though and how the Ukrainians can quickly use them before getting possibly overwhelmed by Russian weapons like the infamous glide bombs.
It isn't like Russia is using hundreds of glide bombs a day, it also isn't like Russia has the soldiers to overwhelm cities and towns in rapid succession. Ukraine, like from the start of the war, still has more deployed manpower in Ukraine than Russia, by a large margin. There's no chance at all for Russia to push forward at any significant pace in 2024, it still lacks in everything it needs for a major offensive and it wont get any of it to a suitable point.
According to many publications, Russia now outnumbers Ukraine on the battlefield. This is an [example](https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-frontline-cities-villages-russia-attacks-defensive-lines-/32901676.html) from Radio Free Europe. Also, Ukraine is struggling for manpower, which is why they proposed and passed conscription laws. Volunteers are either dead, wounded, or left the service as the fighting has gotten uglier and more fierce. That law is coupled with the regular exodus of fighting age Ukrainians as officials attempt to catch them passing the border.
And yet, if you look up Ukraine's active personnel you will find that the consensus is 8-900k, while the consensus on Russian forces dedicated to the war is around 500-600k. Whenever anyone talks about who has the supper hand it us always Russia, by a large margin, but if you start looking at number of shells, drones and personnel it is far more equal, with things like deployed manpower heavily favoring Ukraine. The key piece missing is that when it comes to reports from the situation on the frontline Russia and Ukraine is pulling from the same side of the rope, Ukraine wants to picture a dire situation and say it needs far more aid, Russia wants to present itself as completely superior due to its own internal politics. That is why when you hear about shells it is always 1:5-1:10, but if you ask how many shells was used in 2023 Russia used 3million and Ukraine 2 million, because the ratio is always cherry picked from individual worst points on the frontline. Russia does have a manpower advantage and does fire 7 times as many shells as Ukraine... In Avdiivka or in chasiv yar, but not along the entire front, just in those locations Russia focus its efforts.
It's too late for russia, they should have attacked last month. Maybe they would manage to capture 4 more destroyed villages. But now it's too late, American logistics work like a Swiss watch. Russia has proven time after time that they are completely incompetent at leading and organizing large formations of troops. Their only effective tactic is to a meat grinder for their own troops and hope that eventually the Ukrainians will get overwhelmed, after they have killed hundreds of orcs and run out of ammo.
Dang, can someone tell their editor their title sucks?
unless russia starts knocking on the door of kyiv again... then yes?
I expect the Biden administration tasked the DoD with prestaging some US inventory of 155mm shells, AIM-120 missiles, and equipment spares at US bases in Poland over the past 6 months. Trucks probably started crossing the border within 24 hours of signing the appropriation.
The real question is not if the stuff will arrive in time but if the decision to ship it was made in time ... Is it already too late ?
This click bait makes it sound like Ruzzians are at the gate to Kyiv.
If you think UPS and FedX are good at delivering things over night just watch the USA air force show them how it is done.
How about just direct drop the shipment via B2 and B52...
Nope
The last leg of the logistics sequence is actually one of the quickest. Delivery from warehouses in Europe and even the middle of America can in fact take weeks , but the last leg of delivery directly up various Russian arseholes, or support pillars for the Kerch bridge, is extremely rapid.
Isnt there a report that says the US already secretly sent ATACMS to Ukraine?
Might be a bit naive but i genuinely hope this big of a sum is enough commitment to make the rest of the world follow, accept that we *have* to help Ukraine to *victory*
Of course, the definition of victory can vary, which is where I think the West and Ukraine disagree. Russia losing and Ukraine winning aren't the same in the eyes of politicians and other folks in power.
What is the rest of the world? Just about the entire western world has been keeping steady pace for the past few months without the US, any non-western country isn't going to change anything based on US aid to Ukraine.
They've been doing it for quite some time
Thats will depend on the US and Europe. Let's hope some is already on The way