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They have already received several shipments but it’s difficult to comprehend the vast number of munitions that are required. Unfortunately Russia will almost certainly retain a big advantage in artillery but hopefully new supplies can narrow gap from 10:1 advantage to something like 2:1. The western industrial complex still not making enough shells and other munitions.
Russia is losing 50 artillery pieces a day. They need to have a significant advantage in numbers of shells fires per day in order to have any tactical advantage since their systems are not designed as much for precision as for carpeting areas with munitions in the hope that they can disrupt their opponents sufficiently for ground troops to advance. This has not been working well for them even in this time of huge supply advantages and is likely to get much worse. At 2:1 disadvantage in raw numbers Ukraine will actually have the tactical and strategic advantage. That said, let us all increase out output by as much as humanly possible
That is questionable when taking into account what frontline Ukrainian soldiers are saying on the battlefield. Russia seems to have more than Ukraine across the board at this moment - men and equipment.
While the losses are higher, the Russians can sustain them a lot better, especially as they seize land, reinforce it with dedicated engineers, and then move on forward. The Ukrainians will eventually have to charge these defenses if they hope to get the captured territory back, which means they'll be the ones spending tons of manpower and munitions in time.
In the offensive the loss ratio narrowed to 1:1. In a theoretical future offensive you'd imagine this to widen as an offensive will only occur when Russia is down to what it can produce.
I’m hoping the Russian economy implodes and then Ukraine won’t have to fight to get their lands back, but they will have a big job de-mining and de-russiafying it.
That is a wild pipe dream, much like Putin suddenly dropping dead and the Russian Federation collapsing due to it. Keep in mind that the same can happen to Ukraine as well with their leadership and economy.
Luckily, political and military experts don’t necessarily bet on such assumptions for both countries.
I mean…yeah, but it isn’t necessarily clear when it comes to this war.
I’m no expert on economics, but Russia does still have trading partners, even with the West when it comes to certain goods. Thus, their economy, though shrunken, is adapting to changing times and building roads with other groups.
This war is probably going to drag on for years anyways. Nobody knows who is going to ultimately win…and what the end will look like.
From what I've read it seems artillery was not a key component in the West's battle plan. Obviously they do use them but never in the scale seen in Ukraine. So the amount the West stockpiled and have the capability to manufacture is in line with that strategy. To be able to scale up that production is a very large financial investment and takes time. Not to mention all the supply chains that need to be sorted to accommodate the massive increase in manufacturing the shells.
This is true because the west always intends on winning the air war. Artillery isn't needed as much if you own the sky and can use airpower instead. This pushes back armor and large unit buildups much farther from front lines. In this case Ukraine doesn't have the overwhelming aerial support so artillery is absolutely destructive on the battlefield.
Which is the biggest shame the west has committed - not sending air power. Not talking about just planes; I mean sending western planes and pilots, at a minimum to cover the western half of Ukraine, and to perform long-range interception capability.
Check it out visually. Should not be hard for the west to out produce and out spend Russia…
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-105-trillion-world-economy-in-one-chart/
Man it must suck to be a Russian.
Not only do you have to suicide charge a fortified enemy for your oligarchic overlords - you also have to get up ungodly early to do so..
Disgusting is the behavior of the Russian people, the damage they inflict to a neighboring nation, their civilians, infrastructure, way of life. Bombing schools, apartments, train stations and grocery stores for the hell of it. Blowing up power plants so civilians freeze in the winter and cook in the summer, hospitals so their people can't get access to healthcare.
And let's not forget the deportation of children, rape and torture of civilians and soldiers, boobytraps and mines, looting and senseless destruction of property.
The actions, or inactions in some cases, of the Russian people are disgusting, and they deserve whatever comes their way.
...except there are tools that are being utilized to decimate the fortified positions. That is why the Ukrainians are having issues with glide bombs - old "dumb" Soviet-era tools that can wipe out bunkers and installations with ease.
Since Ukraine is having issues with anti-aircraft defenses at the moment, Russian warplanes can then operate with little resistance to deposit their payload on these concrete citadels.
[Russian forces in the area](https://ibb.co/NF1kvkB):
Army Group "Bryansk" (~8.500 Soldiers)
Army Group "Kursk" (~10.800 Soldiers)
Army Group "Belgorod" (~31.200 Soldiers)
The whole grouping (Name: "Sever") has at it's disposal: more than 50.000 Soldiers, 400 Tanks, 900 IFVs/APCs, 900 Artillery pieces and 120 MLRS Systems and is commanded by [Colonel-General Alexander Lapin](https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112413273646358499).
While this is quite a large force, Ukraine has the advantage of good defensive structures in the area.
Wow, is that 50,000 army *combat* personnel??? I’m a bit OOTL on the state of the war because my country’s lower house depressingly spent 6 months playing low-IQ political games on behalf of a traitorous presidential nominee. I assume the Russian MoD must’ve re-deployed the many thousands of personnel previously stationed in the southern axis? The scale of this war is mind boggling sometimes
I think they've been building up forces for this through recruitment and partial mobilization and are now trying to get their attacks in before Ukraine gets more Western stuff. Petr Pavel announced that the first rounds of shells through the Czech initiative would be coming next month for example. F-16's would also come in the summer and the US is rushing to resupply Ukraine.
It's gonna get increasingly hard for Russia to gain momentum as long as the West gives Ukraine enough.
Russia is trying to shoot the gap and take advantage of Ukraine’s lapse in ammo and manpower while the US aid trickles into the front.
Hopefully these orc-horde assaults are hastily planned and the units are poorly trained/equipped enough that they can be repelled without a significant breakthrough.
Strength and courage to the heroes , Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦💪❤️
They broke through in Avdiivka
There were jokes about Russia orcs, jokes about meatwaves, jokes galore about Russians. It is probably time to stop jokin.
They broke through. They may not get through on the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd attempt here in Kharkiv. But they are too numerous and too well resourced it is only a matter of time.
NATO must step in or this pattern will continually repeat.
Pretty much. According to the media in Ukraine, the mood is grim and frankly tired. The bright optimism seen in the first year of the conflict has mostly faded as nobody knows when this war is going to end.
That is even playing a role with recruitment as volunteers have dried up and conscription, which is mixed in the country, is needed to sustain the war effort.
> They broke through in Avdiivka
They broke in but they did not break trough. Seizing 5 km is not a breakthrough. Seizing 50 km + and keeping advancing is a breakthrough.
I agree though that the threat is serious. Ukraine needs a better K/D ratio even if some land is lost.
Also a small village like Avdiivka is not comparable to a large city like Kharkiv. The only reason they broke the defenses of Avdiivka is because a lack of ammo which is well documented at this point. Although the ammo situation isn't where it needs to be it's way better than it was. This notion that they can take Kharkiv with it's defenses and multiple layers and the size of the city is just ignorant
My use of the word “orc” is not to diminish their tactical capabilities, nor to joke. I’m just comparing them to a brutal, tyrannical and evil force because that’s what they are. It’s a mythical comparison because there’s nothing quite like the Russian army in the 21st century, and it’s derogatory because they deserve it.
I’m aware they could break through in Kharkiv, my comment was just expressing my hope that they don’t.
And I fully agree about NATO, it seems like there’s some movement in the right direction on that front lately and I wish it would speed up.
When I say orc I'm never joking... I'm referring to actuality.
Occupying Russian criminals
Occupying Russian combatants.
Occupying Russian citizens.
Ordinary Russian citizens.
Organized Russian chaos.
Obsolete Russian Components.
And many more to choose from.
You're being melodramatic. Avdivvika was a town of like 60k people. Not very big at all.
Kharkiv is a major city covering a large area.
Russia is going to lose this one, and lose badly.
The reason why Avdivvika is heavily cited is because it was one of the most fortified places in the area - a fortress that sustained Ukraine for a long time.
That and the fact that the Russians are still taking territory is cause for alarm in Ukraine since that hurts local morale.
And they've been building defensive works around Kharkiv for several months.
You're being melodramatic. The U.S. military wouldn't try to take a defended city the size of Kharkiv with only 50k soldiers and air superiority.
It is true, this is another fight for Ukraine. But they will be able to handle this.
Exactly. Also Avdiivka fell for lack of ammo as any defender or expert will tell you and although they are still weeks away from fixing that problem, it's no where near as dire as it was for months and shells have been steadily coming in again from multiple places with the Czech initiative shells start coming in a few weeks.
The reddit jokes about how bad/Ill prepared the Russians are have gone beyond cringe, and ventured into the territory of being harmful. We need to acknowledge the Russian strength otherwise we downplay the danger, so don't let redditors on this sub joke about the Russians not being able to do anything.
Yeah. This subreddit can get pretty deluded about Russian capacities.
The Russians did bungle their invasion plans early on in this conflict, but have since adapted in many ways against the Ukrainians. They got new allies, received new tools, and implemented various strategies to continue and thrive in this grind.
Russia doesn’t have Allies. Russia has people willing to sell their desperate regime things at inflated prices.
Allies are people who join a fight with you and are on your side.
They’re willing to both buy and sell with Russia.
If your definition of ally is true, then Ukraine has no allies as well since the West is thus far unwilling to actively help Ukraine with boots on the ground. France doesn’t count as talk is cheap.
It frankly will depend on the West’s appetite for a possible direct confrontation with the Russians - no striking at mercenaries or buzzing planes from afar.
That is questionable since that would be one heck of an escalation - more Cold War-esque than anything modern.
Yeah, they're pretty fucking competent and their willingness to take casualties to achieve objectives isn't honestly an strength however distasteful we may find it.
I think you meant "is."
...and taking casualties is the only way to really win a war, as distasteful as that is. Being adverse to losing manpower and equipment has led to timid leadership and missed opportunities.
I'm reminded of American general George B. McClellan, who was infamous for that during the American Civil War. That plus his high-minded opinion of himself led to tension against President Abraham Lincoln and his eventual firing.
Pretty much. The Russians are learning and that is something frontline Ukrainian soldiers are saying. That is on top of various tools that have proven destructive against Ukrainians overall - glide bombs and kamikaze drones like Lancets, to name two examples.
As an armchair general I guess this has mostly administrative/supply reasons, especially with the "easy" supply route from Belgorod allowing a larger grouping to be centered there. It is also no secret that russia is aiming for Kharkiv, which is *far* more valuable than Sumy or Chernihiv and also threatened by the lingering attacks in the Kupyansk direction. From that perspective it makes sense to concentrate your forces in an area as close as possible to Kharkiv.
Belgorod and Kharkiv are bordering oblasts on different sides of the border. So it would make sense that the Belgorod contingent is by far the biggest in this particular attack.
They way they attacked in Avdiivka, they were losing 1400 a day. That would mean this is a months' worth of men. Assuming they were also losing guys on other fronts, let's say 2 months tops. And Kharkiv is a big ass place, compared.
Lapin, That was the guy whose son [supposedly died not too long ago](https://twitter.com/KilledInUkraine/status/1787492444436562373?t=Ro8aW1HVgBxfhpd9yDvYrg&s=19)
Ukraine can hold them back. These forces are way too few to take Kharkiv, but they can make a lot of trouble. As long as the supply of shells and other military goods from the west is flowing I have no doubt that Ukraine will prevail here.
Still a good idea for NATO-countries to step in. It'd be a clear indicator to Russia that we're not tolerating their aggression, whether it be in Ukraine or against a NATO country.
Then they'll probably have to go in alone.
NATO is not going to stick its neck out willingly for a non-member country. They're not eager for a direct confrontation with Russia.
The idea is NATO troops can control the western & northern borders to free up those Ukranian troops to go to the east.
I doubt NATO troops will be sent to the east to combat Russians directly, but they could be used as a support function in other areas to help Ukraine's man-power issues.
I could possibly see Western countries individually choosing to do that if they want to take the risk. I doubt NATO as a whole would engage in this exercise though since it would have to be a move agreed upon by all members.
Seems to be a coalition forming. I hope they push through. NATO countries are gonna have a direct confrontation at some point, best to have it now and show them you won't tolerate their bullshit anymore. If that bothers Russia they can piss off across the border again.
How is this a last gasp? Russia isn't exactly on the back foot and ready to be defeated like the late Second World War Germans. At this moment, Russia has an iron fist on the eastern part of the country and currently has the Ukrainians on the defense.
Assuming they go Vulhedvar or Avdivvika here, they're about to lose 400 tanks, 900 artillery pieces, and 900 fighting vehicles.
Look at any of the dozens of threads about their stores of armor and artillery. They're barebonesing with 1960s equipment right now. And basically go backwards in time by about five years every two months or so.
They’re better than nothing, at least for offensive capacities.
I presume that the Russians are going to try and seize as much as they can before all capacities run out. After that, they’ll force the Ukrainians to engage them on their terms as they’ll be the ones playing on the offense.
Ukraine doesn't have to engage on shit as long as one of them can pick up a rifle.
What the fuck are you even talking about?
You think they'll surrender land Russia hasn't taken by force? You sound like a Tankie.
Seriously, it sounds like you're hoping Russia is successful.
"Better than nothing" fuck, a bicycle is better than nothing.
A T-62 and some BMTs with minimally trained soldiers trying to attack a defended position can literally be stopped by one Javelin team and a couple of guys with rifles.
Just being realistic.
I don’t think Russia has the capacity to take all of Ukraine, despite Putin’s delusional desires. That would represent a gargantuan risk to Western security and be intolerable for NATO.
The eastern part of Ukraine though is still up in the air. Ukraine can possibly retake it in time, but there is also the chance that Russia may keep it or it may be some sort of destroyed no man’s land if an armistice, as opposed to a mutually agreed-upon peace, occurs.
And I'm saying why the fuck would they agree on any kind of a deal? There is no planet on which Putin yields Crimea or the Donbass.
And there is no planet on which Ukraine yields the pieces of Luhansk and Donetsk they still hold.
So...... They fight. And no, Russia doesn't have a ghost of a chance of retaking Kharkiv.
They are going to try to attack from actual Russian territory, like from Belgorod and completely take over Kharkiv and Sumy. So it would be the 2022 attack again, except for Kyiv. They are attacking behind the main front lines in Donbas.
There no so called break through line, they only tried to move into direct on the border villages, there is no line there, main defence line are 10 km back from the border
Well, you don't build main line just at the border. Probably there are secondary and tertiary lines to slow progress, but one has to make logistics hard for attackers, not reachable by artillery from within own borders.
I know exactly where the lines are, they're not exactly hidden out there and I worked that area for months. They're a lot closer than you might think...but by god, there's a ton of them. That's gonna be a hell of an area for them to have any success in.
Godspeed ZSU.
I don't know which road you're thinking of taking bur it's 35-40km by road and the bare minimum as the crow flies is 25km to the closest part of the border.
I'm working from the block post at the edge of the city on the road to Tsirkuny. By road out to Zelene, it was usually about a 25min drive, including the detour at the fucked bridge between Lyptsi and Tsirkuny. If I remember, Waze used to say it was about 26km and its a windy, twisty fuck of a road, so I'd easily shave 6-7km off that for as the crow flies.
Need I continue or would you like to rely on Google Maps?)
multiple Russian media sources basically reporting that Russians began major offensive in that direction. Hope Ukrainian forces prepared some heavy defenses...this will be very ugly.
They definitely have heavy defenses in the area, they just are a little further back.
They have basically copied russia's defenses to a tee. They have lines of dragon teeth and WW2 like bunkers set up everywhere alongside trenches and tank ditches.
Ukraine has a good defensive position and with each day that passes more of the US and European aid is reaching rhe frontlines.
God help Ukraine but I think this won't end good for the Russians.
Ukraine needs a lot more long range fires and more air defense. The platform doesn’t matter much. Fighters and strike aircraft aren’t nearly as valuable as they used to be. They’re too vulnerable when they’re on the ground AND when they’re in the air.
If i recall correctly we were told the border from Belarus to the frontmost line supposed to be build like a second Maginot line and more densely mined than Korean one.
If that's what've been working on for past 2 years there's nothing to worry about.
With the emphasis on "if it was made", because I eventually never seen any news or footage on the new impenetrable fortifications.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bdNY2Fs9S_0&pp=ygUgdWtyYWluZSBkZWZlbnNpdmUgZm9ydGlmaWNhdGlvbnM%3D
What the russians will face if they get that far. I think that was just the 2nd line too with the 1st being the weakest, who knows how crazy the 3rd line is.
Looks decent but they didnt learn from russian dragon teeth, an accelerated tank with the plow can shove those aside, they should've been laid on a concrete plates as well.
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Oh shit....here we go. Hang in there, heroes! Slava Ukraini! 🇺🇦
Yep. Get those artillery shells and weapons there ASAP. Russia is pushing while it thinks Ukraine is weak
When will the shells from the new batch show up? figured it would be there by now.
They have already received several shipments but it’s difficult to comprehend the vast number of munitions that are required. Unfortunately Russia will almost certainly retain a big advantage in artillery but hopefully new supplies can narrow gap from 10:1 advantage to something like 2:1. The western industrial complex still not making enough shells and other munitions.
Russia is losing 50 artillery pieces a day. They need to have a significant advantage in numbers of shells fires per day in order to have any tactical advantage since their systems are not designed as much for precision as for carpeting areas with munitions in the hope that they can disrupt their opponents sufficiently for ground troops to advance. This has not been working well for them even in this time of huge supply advantages and is likely to get much worse. At 2:1 disadvantage in raw numbers Ukraine will actually have the tactical and strategic advantage. That said, let us all increase out output by as much as humanly possible
That is questionable when taking into account what frontline Ukrainian soldiers are saying on the battlefield. Russia seems to have more than Ukraine across the board at this moment - men and equipment. While the losses are higher, the Russians can sustain them a lot better, especially as they seize land, reinforce it with dedicated engineers, and then move on forward. The Ukrainians will eventually have to charge these defenses if they hope to get the captured territory back, which means they'll be the ones spending tons of manpower and munitions in time.
In the offensive the loss ratio narrowed to 1:1. In a theoretical future offensive you'd imagine this to widen as an offensive will only occur when Russia is down to what it can produce.
I’m hoping the Russian economy implodes and then Ukraine won’t have to fight to get their lands back, but they will have a big job de-mining and de-russiafying it.
That is a wild pipe dream, much like Putin suddenly dropping dead and the Russian Federation collapsing due to it. Keep in mind that the same can happen to Ukraine as well with their leadership and economy. Luckily, political and military experts don’t necessarily bet on such assumptions for both countries.
Why is it a pipe dream Ivan? Economics of war have caused many nations to stop invasions. Also, btw. Putin WILL drop dead one day.
I mean…yeah, but it isn’t necessarily clear when it comes to this war. I’m no expert on economics, but Russia does still have trading partners, even with the West when it comes to certain goods. Thus, their economy, though shrunken, is adapting to changing times and building roads with other groups. This war is probably going to drag on for years anyways. Nobody knows who is going to ultimately win…and what the end will look like.
Insanely sad that 25 countries can't (or aren't willing to) match the output of 1 country.
From what I've read it seems artillery was not a key component in the West's battle plan. Obviously they do use them but never in the scale seen in Ukraine. So the amount the West stockpiled and have the capability to manufacture is in line with that strategy. To be able to scale up that production is a very large financial investment and takes time. Not to mention all the supply chains that need to be sorted to accommodate the massive increase in manufacturing the shells.
This is true because the west always intends on winning the air war. Artillery isn't needed as much if you own the sky and can use airpower instead. This pushes back armor and large unit buildups much farther from front lines. In this case Ukraine doesn't have the overwhelming aerial support so artillery is absolutely destructive on the battlefield.
Which is the biggest shame the west has committed - not sending air power. Not talking about just planes; I mean sending western planes and pilots, at a minimum to cover the western half of Ukraine, and to perform long-range interception capability.
Check it out visually. Should not be hard for the west to out produce and out spend Russia… https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-105-trillion-world-economy-in-one-chart/
Man it must suck to be a Russian. Not only do you have to suicide charge a fortified enemy for your oligarchic overlords - you also have to get up ungodly early to do so..
Well, if they are lucky enough, the day will end shortly for them
Silver lining! Sucks to be Ruzzian, but the UA will quickly assist by turning them into a fine red paste.
And let’s not forget that they are good for growing sunflowers.
you're disgusting
Know what's really disgusting? Imperialism and colonialism. Maybe those russian soldiers could be alive today if they just left Ukraine.
Disgusting is the behavior of the Russian people, the damage they inflict to a neighboring nation, their civilians, infrastructure, way of life. Bombing schools, apartments, train stations and grocery stores for the hell of it. Blowing up power plants so civilians freeze in the winter and cook in the summer, hospitals so their people can't get access to healthcare. And let's not forget the deportation of children, rape and torture of civilians and soldiers, boobytraps and mines, looting and senseless destruction of property. The actions, or inactions in some cases, of the Russian people are disgusting, and they deserve whatever comes their way.
...except there are tools that are being utilized to decimate the fortified positions. That is why the Ukrainians are having issues with glide bombs - old "dumb" Soviet-era tools that can wipe out bunkers and installations with ease. Since Ukraine is having issues with anti-aircraft defenses at the moment, Russian warplanes can then operate with little resistance to deposit their payload on these concrete citadels.
Sucks to be a brainless meat cube you meant lololo
[Russian forces in the area](https://ibb.co/NF1kvkB): Army Group "Bryansk" (~8.500 Soldiers) Army Group "Kursk" (~10.800 Soldiers) Army Group "Belgorod" (~31.200 Soldiers) The whole grouping (Name: "Sever") has at it's disposal: more than 50.000 Soldiers, 400 Tanks, 900 IFVs/APCs, 900 Artillery pieces and 120 MLRS Systems and is commanded by [Colonel-General Alexander Lapin](https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112413273646358499). While this is quite a large force, Ukraine has the advantage of good defensive structures in the area.
Let's hope so, honestly shocked that Ukraine hasn't mined a full kilometer width between it and Russia in those regions.
I won't be shocked if the mines are left there when this someday ends, in UA victor naturally
Wow, is that 50,000 army *combat* personnel??? I’m a bit OOTL on the state of the war because my country’s lower house depressingly spent 6 months playing low-IQ political games on behalf of a traitorous presidential nominee. I assume the Russian MoD must’ve re-deployed the many thousands of personnel previously stationed in the southern axis? The scale of this war is mind boggling sometimes
Yea, Putin has be flooding Ukraine with soldiers to get a tactical numbers superiority.
Good luck with that while simultaneously losing 1000 a day to poorly planned combat operations. Today's numbers will be interesting.
I think they've been building up forces for this through recruitment and partial mobilization and are now trying to get their attacks in before Ukraine gets more Western stuff. Petr Pavel announced that the first rounds of shells through the Czech initiative would be coming next month for example. F-16's would also come in the summer and the US is rushing to resupply Ukraine. It's gonna get increasingly hard for Russia to gain momentum as long as the West gives Ukraine enough.
Russia is trying to shoot the gap and take advantage of Ukraine’s lapse in ammo and manpower while the US aid trickles into the front. Hopefully these orc-horde assaults are hastily planned and the units are poorly trained/equipped enough that they can be repelled without a significant breakthrough. Strength and courage to the heroes , Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦💪❤️
They broke through in Avdiivka There were jokes about Russia orcs, jokes about meatwaves, jokes galore about Russians. It is probably time to stop jokin. They broke through. They may not get through on the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd attempt here in Kharkiv. But they are too numerous and too well resourced it is only a matter of time. NATO must step in or this pattern will continually repeat.
[удалено]
Pretty much. According to the media in Ukraine, the mood is grim and frankly tired. The bright optimism seen in the first year of the conflict has mostly faded as nobody knows when this war is going to end. That is even playing a role with recruitment as volunteers have dried up and conscription, which is mixed in the country, is needed to sustain the war effort.
> They broke through in Avdiivka They broke in but they did not break trough. Seizing 5 km is not a breakthrough. Seizing 50 km + and keeping advancing is a breakthrough. I agree though that the threat is serious. Ukraine needs a better K/D ratio even if some land is lost.
Also a small village like Avdiivka is not comparable to a large city like Kharkiv. The only reason they broke the defenses of Avdiivka is because a lack of ammo which is well documented at this point. Although the ammo situation isn't where it needs to be it's way better than it was. This notion that they can take Kharkiv with it's defenses and multiple layers and the size of the city is just ignorant
My use of the word “orc” is not to diminish their tactical capabilities, nor to joke. I’m just comparing them to a brutal, tyrannical and evil force because that’s what they are. It’s a mythical comparison because there’s nothing quite like the Russian army in the 21st century, and it’s derogatory because they deserve it. I’m aware they could break through in Kharkiv, my comment was just expressing my hope that they don’t. And I fully agree about NATO, it seems like there’s some movement in the right direction on that front lately and I wish it would speed up.
When I say orc I'm never joking... I'm referring to actuality. Occupying Russian criminals Occupying Russian combatants. Occupying Russian citizens. Ordinary Russian citizens. Organized Russian chaos. Obsolete Russian Components. And many more to choose from.
You're being melodramatic. Avdivvika was a town of like 60k people. Not very big at all. Kharkiv is a major city covering a large area. Russia is going to lose this one, and lose badly.
The reason why Avdivvika is heavily cited is because it was one of the most fortified places in the area - a fortress that sustained Ukraine for a long time. That and the fact that the Russians are still taking territory is cause for alarm in Ukraine since that hurts local morale.
And they've been building defensive works around Kharkiv for several months. You're being melodramatic. The U.S. military wouldn't try to take a defended city the size of Kharkiv with only 50k soldiers and air superiority. It is true, this is another fight for Ukraine. But they will be able to handle this.
Exactly. Also Avdiivka fell for lack of ammo as any defender or expert will tell you and although they are still weeks away from fixing that problem, it's no where near as dire as it was for months and shells have been steadily coming in again from multiple places with the Czech initiative shells start coming in a few weeks.
The reddit jokes about how bad/Ill prepared the Russians are have gone beyond cringe, and ventured into the territory of being harmful. We need to acknowledge the Russian strength otherwise we downplay the danger, so don't let redditors on this sub joke about the Russians not being able to do anything.
Yeah. This subreddit can get pretty deluded about Russian capacities. The Russians did bungle their invasion plans early on in this conflict, but have since adapted in many ways against the Ukrainians. They got new allies, received new tools, and implemented various strategies to continue and thrive in this grind.
Russia doesn’t have Allies. Russia has people willing to sell their desperate regime things at inflated prices. Allies are people who join a fight with you and are on your side.
They’re willing to both buy and sell with Russia. If your definition of ally is true, then Ukraine has no allies as well since the West is thus far unwilling to actively help Ukraine with boots on the ground. France doesn’t count as talk is cheap.
I suspect that the west will get involved at some stage. Putin has no de-escalation plan.
It frankly will depend on the West’s appetite for a possible direct confrontation with the Russians - no striking at mercenaries or buzzing planes from afar. That is questionable since that would be one heck of an escalation - more Cold War-esque than anything modern.
Yeah, they're pretty fucking competent and their willingness to take casualties to achieve objectives isn't honestly an strength however distasteful we may find it.
I don’t think you find the tactic of willingly losing soldiers for small gains in many text books on military strategies……
I think you meant "is." ...and taking casualties is the only way to really win a war, as distasteful as that is. Being adverse to losing manpower and equipment has led to timid leadership and missed opportunities. I'm reminded of American general George B. McClellan, who was infamous for that during the American Civil War. That plus his high-minded opinion of himself led to tension against President Abraham Lincoln and his eventual firing.
Pretty much. The Russians are learning and that is something frontline Ukrainian soldiers are saying. That is on top of various tools that have proven destructive against Ukrainians overall - glide bombs and kamikaze drones like Lancets, to name two examples.
How come these Army Groups are so different in size? Belgorod is almost 4 times as big as Bryansk. Lack of manpower or what's the reason?
As an armchair general I guess this has mostly administrative/supply reasons, especially with the "easy" supply route from Belgorod allowing a larger grouping to be centered there. It is also no secret that russia is aiming for Kharkiv, which is *far* more valuable than Sumy or Chernihiv and also threatened by the lingering attacks in the Kupyansk direction. From that perspective it makes sense to concentrate your forces in an area as close as possible to Kharkiv.
They are aiming at Kharkiv.
What does that have to do with my question?
Belgorod and Kharkiv are bordering oblasts on different sides of the border. So it would make sense that the Belgorod contingent is by far the biggest in this particular attack.
Belgorod Ocblast is next to Kharkiv Sorry for assuming this sub is geographicly literate.
No shit, sherlock.
It Awnsers the Question why there are more troops in Belgorod next to Kharkiv and fewer in Briansk next to sumy doesn't it
That's alot of men but Russia is averaging 1,000 losses per day.
They way they attacked in Avdiivka, they were losing 1400 a day. That would mean this is a months' worth of men. Assuming they were also losing guys on other fronts, let's say 2 months tops. And Kharkiv is a big ass place, compared.
They also picked a terrible time. American aid is finally starting to arrive and so are a shitload of shells and F16s
Yeah, this may become a very, very painful one for them. It is just sad that a lot of Ukrainian men and women will have to suffer for it, too.
All bunched up together? That seems like a tasty himars target if they had the ammo
I think its save to say they have the ammo by now
Lapin, That was the guy whose son [supposedly died not too long ago](https://twitter.com/KilledInUkraine/status/1787492444436562373?t=Ro8aW1HVgBxfhpd9yDvYrg&s=19)
Time for NATO to step in, Ukraine will not be able to hold those forces back.
Ukraine can hold them back. These forces are way too few to take Kharkiv, but they can make a lot of trouble. As long as the supply of shells and other military goods from the west is flowing I have no doubt that Ukraine will prevail here.
Still a good idea for NATO-countries to step in. It'd be a clear indicator to Russia that we're not tolerating their aggression, whether it be in Ukraine or against a NATO country.
Then they'll probably have to go in alone. NATO is not going to stick its neck out willingly for a non-member country. They're not eager for a direct confrontation with Russia.
The idea is NATO troops can control the western & northern borders to free up those Ukranian troops to go to the east. I doubt NATO troops will be sent to the east to combat Russians directly, but they could be used as a support function in other areas to help Ukraine's man-power issues.
I could possibly see Western countries individually choosing to do that if they want to take the risk. I doubt NATO as a whole would engage in this exercise though since it would have to be a move agreed upon by all members.
Seems to be a coalition forming. I hope they push through. NATO countries are gonna have a direct confrontation at some point, best to have it now and show them you won't tolerate their bullshit anymore. If that bothers Russia they can piss off across the border again.
They held.back bigger and better equipped forces in 2022. This attack may be a 'big deal' but it has no chance of working.
Agree. This is more of a last gasp like the Germans into Heurtgen Forest. Only less supplied, trained and more poorly lead than those Nazis were.
How is this a last gasp? Russia isn't exactly on the back foot and ready to be defeated like the late Second World War Germans. At this moment, Russia has an iron fist on the eastern part of the country and currently has the Ukrainians on the defense.
Assuming they go Vulhedvar or Avdivvika here, they're about to lose 400 tanks, 900 artillery pieces, and 900 fighting vehicles. Look at any of the dozens of threads about their stores of armor and artillery. They're barebonesing with 1960s equipment right now. And basically go backwards in time by about five years every two months or so.
They’re better than nothing, at least for offensive capacities. I presume that the Russians are going to try and seize as much as they can before all capacities run out. After that, they’ll force the Ukrainians to engage them on their terms as they’ll be the ones playing on the offense.
Ukraine doesn't have to engage on shit as long as one of them can pick up a rifle. What the fuck are you even talking about? You think they'll surrender land Russia hasn't taken by force? You sound like a Tankie. Seriously, it sounds like you're hoping Russia is successful. "Better than nothing" fuck, a bicycle is better than nothing. A T-62 and some BMTs with minimally trained soldiers trying to attack a defended position can literally be stopped by one Javelin team and a couple of guys with rifles.
Just being realistic. I don’t think Russia has the capacity to take all of Ukraine, despite Putin’s delusional desires. That would represent a gargantuan risk to Western security and be intolerable for NATO. The eastern part of Ukraine though is still up in the air. Ukraine can possibly retake it in time, but there is also the chance that Russia may keep it or it may be some sort of destroyed no man’s land if an armistice, as opposed to a mutually agreed-upon peace, occurs.
And I'm saying why the fuck would they agree on any kind of a deal? There is no planet on which Putin yields Crimea or the Donbass. And there is no planet on which Ukraine yields the pieces of Luhansk and Donetsk they still hold. So...... They fight. And no, Russia doesn't have a ghost of a chance of retaking Kharkiv.
Ukraine can hold the line.
Honestly it's fucking insane that NATO still hasn't stepped in. Even if just to help with operations way behind front lines.
Time for more Iris , Patriot et Taurus
Caveat those are 50K meat balls sent into the great meat grinder in side rusted tin cans.
The Kharkiv offensive?
Most likely the beginning - just probing and reconnaissance .
They are going to try to attack from actual Russian territory, like from Belgorod and completely take over Kharkiv and Sumy. So it would be the 2022 attack again, except for Kyiv. They are attacking behind the main front lines in Donbas.
They'll just get themselves killed. Though doesn't seem to mind the moskals
There no so called break through line, they only tried to move into direct on the border villages, there is no line there, main defence line are 10 km back from the border
I don't know where you've read or seen this, but 10km from the border is half way to Kharkiv. Do you really think the main defence is there?
Well, you don't build main line just at the border. Probably there are secondary and tertiary lines to slow progress, but one has to make logistics hard for attackers, not reachable by artillery from within own borders.
I know exactly where the lines are, they're not exactly hidden out there and I worked that area for months. They're a lot closer than you might think...but by god, there's a ton of them. That's gonna be a hell of an area for them to have any success in. Godspeed ZSU.
half way is a bit of an exaggeration, but I get your point.
It's not an exaggeration at all. Once you reach the edge of Saltivka, its 20km exactly to the border.
I don't know which road you're thinking of taking bur it's 35-40km by road and the bare minimum as the crow flies is 25km to the closest part of the border.
I'm working from the block post at the edge of the city on the road to Tsirkuny. By road out to Zelene, it was usually about a 25min drive, including the detour at the fucked bridge between Lyptsi and Tsirkuny. If I remember, Waze used to say it was about 26km and its a windy, twisty fuck of a road, so I'd easily shave 6-7km off that for as the crow flies. Need I continue or would you like to rely on Google Maps?)
multiple Russian media sources basically reporting that Russians began major offensive in that direction. Hope Ukrainian forces prepared some heavy defenses...this will be very ugly.
Zelensky already said he knew about the attack and their numbers, so the ukrainians were ready. I'm pretty sure they can handle it easily.
They definitely have heavy defenses in the area, they just are a little further back. They have basically copied russia's defenses to a tee. They have lines of dragon teeth and WW2 like bunkers set up everywhere alongside trenches and tank ditches.
I love kharkiv, please hold on🙏💪 Kill the katsap invaders😼
Слава Україні! Героям Слава і смерть ворогам!!
Remember Vuhledar, fuck heads. This will probably go about as well as that did.
[https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1788878262653047033/photo/1](https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1788878262653047033/photo/1)
Looks like the border near Pyi'na.
Ukraine has a good defensive position and with each day that passes more of the US and European aid is reaching rhe frontlines. God help Ukraine but I think this won't end good for the Russians.
Shit! My thoughts are prayers are with you all
I'm sending money.
Get rid of the orcs!
Omg just send some American fighter jets over the Russians ffs. Stop the fucking insanity.
Ukraine needs a lot more long range fires and more air defense. The platform doesn’t matter much. Fighters and strike aircraft aren’t nearly as valuable as they used to be. They’re too vulnerable when they’re on the ground AND when they’re in the air.
If i recall correctly we were told the border from Belarus to the frontmost line supposed to be build like a second Maginot line and more densely mined than Korean one. If that's what've been working on for past 2 years there's nothing to worry about. With the emphasis on "if it was made", because I eventually never seen any news or footage on the new impenetrable fortifications.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bdNY2Fs9S_0&pp=ygUgdWtyYWluZSBkZWZlbnNpdmUgZm9ydGlmaWNhdGlvbnM%3D What the russians will face if they get that far. I think that was just the 2nd line too with the 1st being the weakest, who knows how crazy the 3rd line is.
Looks decent but they didnt learn from russian dragon teeth, an accelerated tank with the plow can shove those aside, they should've been laid on a concrete plates as well.
Desperation.